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Eric Ebron Thread


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19 hours ago, Faust said:

It is hard to separate Ebron the player and Ebron the person.  I liked him in Detroit because he said the dumbest things all the time and was entertaining in a comedic type of way.  Of course that is the reason why so many Detroit fans despised him.  Hopefully in Indy he will keep quiet and just play.   There is no doubt he has ability..but after watching him his whole career he makes too many mental mistakes during the course of a game.     FF players could care less about that but it will drive Indy fans nuts.

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18 minutes ago, Da Guru said:

It is hard to separate Ebron the player and Ebron the person.  I liked him in Detroit because he said the dumbest things all the time and was entertaining in a comedic type of way.  Of course that is the reason why so many Detroit fans despised him.  Hopefully in Indy he will keep quiet and just play.   There is no doubt he has ability..but after watching him his whole career he makes too many mental mistakes during the course of a game.     FF players could care less about that but it will drive Indy fans nuts.

Also a lot of questions about his starting QB. If Luck comes back full strength its all good from that side of the equation.

But if not Good Luck, good luck increasing his numbers going from Stafford to Jacoby Brissett.

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21 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

 

But if not Good Luck, good luck increasing his numbers going from Stafford to Jacoby Brissett.

I think it was a positive for Doyle, so possible, but I expect Ebron to run considerably deeper routes.

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Depressed TE market

Eric Ebron is a great example of the tight end conundrum. In Detroit he became an explosive receiver, thanks largely to improved route running from the slot and out wide. But he was such a bad blocker that the Lions couldn’t always run the ball with him on the field. Defenses noticed this and so Detroit’s passing game became predictable. To overcome this, the Lions had to put Ebron on the bench. That diminishment in snaps made him unworthy of the $8.25 million that his fifth-year option brought in 2018. So, Ebron, a talented receiving tight end, was released. He soon signed with the Colts for $13 million over two years.

It will be fascinating to see how Ebron is used in Indy. The Colts already have one outstanding blocking tight end in Jack Doyle. But Doyle is an on-the-move blocker, molded more like and H-back than a third offensive tackle. Which means Ebron, if he’s to give Indy the flexible, disguisable two-tight end packages they desire, will once again be called upon to block defensive ends. Can he get better—like, say, Greg Olsen, a finesse player in Chicago who has willed himself to become a decent blocker in Carolina? Or, will Ebron simply continue to be a liability? This is the conversation almost every team has about its tight end in today’s NFL.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Indy Star's Stephen Holder writes Eric Ebron "has been among the more impressive Colts" during the offseason program.

Ebron has been used all over the formation by new coach Frank Reich. "He’s really smart," Reich said. "And that’s really good because you want to use a guy with the versatility that he has and move him around and call all kinds of things with him." Even with Jack Doyle atop the depth chart, Ebron should see his fair share of targets in an offense desperate for playmakers behind T.Y. Hilton. He is a fine late-round stab in deeper leagues.

Source: Indianapolis Star 

Jun 18 - 10:23 AM

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  • 3 months later...
5 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Let’s hear it for the big guy, that might have been the biggest TE FFP game so far this year. And he could have gotten another TD. Makes sense considering Hilton and the deficiencies on the line. Anyway huge performance.

Sell high? Or do we think he stays relevant when Hilton and Doyle come back?

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30 minutes ago, travdogg said:

Sell high? Or do we think he stays relevant when Hilton and Doyle come back?

Not concerned about Doyle in the least.  He wins in ways that Doyle cannot. I think he'll be Luck's second favorite target behind TY all year.

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Eric Ebron caught 9-of-15 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns in the Colts' Week 5 loss to the Patriots.

Operating as the No. 1 receiver for the Colts' epically banged up offense — to say nothing of the hollowed-out defense — Ebron posted a new career high for targets while notching his first 100-yard game. True to form, Ebron also committed a drop or two, but he was finding space against the second and third levels of the Patriots' defense. His Week 6 fantasy status against the Jets will depend on Jack Doyle and T.Y. Hilton's health.

Oct 4 - 11:43 PM

 

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4 hours ago, travdogg said:

Sell high? Or do we think he stays relevant when Hilton and Doyle come back?

He is the second best receiver in the offense, so I'm inclined to believe he's a hold. He's going to have a decent year by volume alone.

Ebron isn't as bad as people think. Sure, he was overdrafted and had his fair share of issues in Detroit, but he had his moments too.

After his slow start and time in the dog house last year, he actually finished as the #4 TE in PPR in the second half of the season.

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1 hour ago, formerfourdigit said:

I think he's a much better match for Luck than Stafford, Luck has a lot more touch and placement on his passes.  I thought he looked slow on the one pass that he caught across the field though, I was really surprised he didn't run away on that because I remember him as being a lot faster than I saw last night.

 

he was nursing a knee a little perhaps that was the issue

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10 hours ago, Nero said:

Not concerned about Doyle in the least.  He wins in ways that Doyle cannot.

I'm very concerned about Doyle.  It's true he wins in a way that Doyle can't but you can't win when you are not on the field and Ebron's snap count and usage was drastically lower the first two games that Doyle played.  I think no Doyle helped save Ebron in weeks 3-4 when he was in the game catching a lot of short passes the D was basically giving up. I think in most of those situations that would have been Doyle catching those passes.

You and I can both think that Ebron earned a right to be on the field more then he was those first two weeks but Reich was pretty adamant after two weeks that Ebron's playing time was right where he wanted it.

Getting news on Doyle's injury has been almost non-existent.  Most Colt beat writers had zero idea he was hurt in week two until he missed practice the next Wednesday. Last I heard, which was a few days ago, is a quote I'll paraphrase from a Colt's beat writer saying they needed "so and so" to step up because they'd still be without Doyle for "a while". 

11 hours ago, travdogg said:

Sell high? Or do we think he stays relevant when Hilton and Doyle come back?

Relevant for sure and I don't think Hilton has any impact. In TE premium and single PPR  leagues in the second half of the season last year he was on a limited snap count, similar to what you saw the first two weeks, and he  #5 TE second half of the season PPG scoring in that role and that was just scoring one TD.  I'd have to guess right now he's among the league leaders in red zone targets right now and the only game he did not catch a TD he had two passes that may not be official drops but passes in the end zone he should have caught.

So relevant but going back to my other reply in this post and I think if Doyle can get back healthy, and I've not heard he won't at some point, I think the 10+ target days may be over. For that reason, I do think he is a sell high.

 

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The first four games (and especially last night) allowed for luck and Ebron to cement some serious chemistry.  You can tell that luck looks for him all over the field.  I think Doyle coming back will take some of those targets, but Ebron is still good for 6-7 targets per game and glue gets lost of the red zone love.  He’s probably a top 5 TE ROS.  

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1 hour ago, rickyg said:

The first four games (and especially last night) allowed for luck and Ebron to cement some serious chemistry.  You can tell that luck looks for him all over the field.  I think Doyle coming back will take some of those targets, but Ebron is still good for 6-7 targets per game and glue gets lost of the red zone love.  He’s probably a top 5 TE ROS.  

Whoa!

Since I posed the initial Ebron question, I may as well share my take on it. I think as long as he's the only game in town, he'll be a top-5 TE, we have heard nothing on Doyle at all, and Hilton seems 50-50 for week 6. When Hilton comes back, Ebron will likely lose some targets, specifically the ones downfield, where he was the first read, he may gain YPC as he'll have more space on his shorter looks. However, when Doyle comes back, I think he'll take those shorter looks, and Ebron will function more as a part time slot reciever. 

Basically, Hilton/Doyle out=Top-5 TE

Doyle out=Top-10 TE

Everyone healthy=Maybe still a TE1?

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On 10/5/2018 at 3:16 PM, travdogg said:

Whoa!

Since I posed the initial Ebron question, I may as well share my take on it. I think as long as he's the only game in town, he'll be a top-5 TE, we have heard nothing on Doyle at all, and Hilton seems 50-50 for week 6. When Hilton comes back, Ebron will likely lose some targets, specifically the ones downfield, where he was the first read, he may gain YPC as he'll have more space on his shorter looks. However, when Doyle comes back, I think he'll take those shorter looks, and Ebron will function more as a part time slot reciever. 

Basically, Hilton/Doyle out=Top-5 TE

Doyle out=Top-10 TE

Everyone healthy=Maybe still a TE1?

Take why I said in the context of the wasteland that is TE this year.  You’ve got Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, and I guess cook.  After that, not crazy to think Ebron...

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3 hours ago, rickyg said:

Take why I said in the context of the wasteland that is TE this year.  You’ve got Gronk, Kelce, Ertz, and I guess cook.  After that, not crazy to think Ebron...

I'll still take a healthy Jordan Reed over Cook or Ebron. But yeah, it drops off pretty fast. 

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Eric Ebron (shin, quad, ankle, knee) remained sidelined on Thursday.

We would like to think the Colts are just managing Ebron's reps, but any time you are listed with four different injuries and post back-to-back DNPs, it's not exactly a good sign. That's especially true since the Colts are on their "mini" bye after last week's Thursday night game. We would ultimately still consider Ebron on the right side of questionable. He has missed a lot of practice this year. We will have a good idea by Friday.

Source: George Bremer on Twitter 

Oct 11 - 1:19 PM

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7 hours ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Ebron had the 2nd highest point total for TEs this week (pending Kittle and Graham) and in 0.5 ppr he is has scored the 2nd most points on the season, just 0.4 points behind Ertz.

He's been awesome.  Just keep milking the cash cow for all you can get out of it until Doyle/Hilton are back.  He should still have value even after that but I'm loving having him out there as the top receiving threat on a passing team.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Quote

Observations: Eric Ebron had buoyed Jack Doyle’s (hip) absence the past five games into elite tight end usage and an ensuing top-three ranking on the year. With Doyle back in the lineup Sunday, though, Ebron’s previous averages of 10 targets and 37.8 routes plummeted to three and 10. Ebron was inevitably in on just 18% of the Colts’ offensive snaps, too, whereas he was previously playing 75% as the team’s interim starter. With Doyle (6/70/1 Sunday) presumably healthy, Ebron need be downgraded to a boom-bust touchdown-dependent TE1 (as opposed to one guaranteed volume)

 

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Doyle is going to hurt his snaps and production for sure but his super low snap count felt a lot to me like Kamara in week 5 when Ingram returned week before the bye and they went light on his workload. Feels like same thing to me and keep in mind Ebron has been beat up this year with an assortment of seemingly minor lower body injuries.

 

But between the new found running game and Doyle his stock is still way down I'm afraid.

 

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I have Ebron on two dynasties (as a backup to Kelce) and one redraft (along with Trey Burton). I couldn't give him away. No one wanted him. All three leagues have different scoring formats, and he's the TE3 in all three of them, but when I offer him, the comments I get are along the lines of "I don't want a guy who's the backup TE on his own team." I get that, with Doyle in there, Ebron is heavily dependent on scoring a touchdown, but tight end is an incredibly thin position this year. It's just odd that a guy who's been this productive has a perceived value this low. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
2 hours ago, togo said:

Same here. I got both Doyle and Ebron.

Played Doyle this week.

Both got only 3 targets.....

Not sure who to play moving forward. Throw there names in a hat and pick one?? Get another TE??

I would wait to see the snap counts before making any decisions. I think the weekly play is Doyle, and Ebron makes for a terrific insurance policy.

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1 hour ago, tricky92 said:

I would wait to see the snap counts before making any decisions. I think the weekly play is Doyle, and Ebron makes for a terrific insurance policy.

At TE, at least in my leagues (non-PPR), a TD makes your week.  Your TD scores a TD, he finishes as a TE1 more often than not.  Ebron has, so far, scored most weeks.  If/when he gets 50+ yards, that is a bonus.  He doesn't play as much as Doyle, but he is scoring TDs.  If I had to choose between the two, I'd choose Ebron.

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4 minutes ago, Bayhawks said:

At TE, at least in my leagues (non-PPR), a TD makes your week.  Your TD scores a TD, he finishes as a TE1 more often than not.  Ebron has, so far, scored most weeks.  If/when he gets 50+ yards, that is a bonus.  He doesn't play as much as Doyle, but he is scoring TDs.  If I had to choose between the two, I'd choose Ebron.

Even in 1.5 PPR TE premium leagues if you isolate Ebron to just the games that Doyle played he's putting up 16.95 points to Doyle's 12.9 points.

 

1 hour ago, tricky92 said:

I would wait to see the snap counts before making any decisions. I think the weekly play is Doyle, and Ebron makes for a terrific insurance policy.

See reply above. Ebron got 17 snaps yesterday to Doyle's 48. On the season in games together Ebron is averaging 23 snaps a game and Doyle is at 60 but in any format Ebron has been the better fantasy player.

I think Doyle feels safer due to the higher snap count. And if you planning to watch the game it sure feels better when you see your player on the field with at least a fighting chance to score on a given play but reality is the snap counts have not been a good indicator on who to use between the two.

 

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If you feel Ebron is going to continue scoring TDs nearly every week, he's a must start and a guy you keep. If you feel that he's due to regress in the TD department, then getting a few targets and running 20 routes a game isn't going to net you many good weeks.

I cashed in and sold him for Christian Kirk in a dynasty league last week where TE's get 1.5 PPR and you can start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 2 or 3 flex players every week. Maybe his value would be higher this week, but as long as his playing time or number of targets/routes doesn't change, he's someone I have a hard time believing will continue to score this way.

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I dealt Ebron this past week in a package with Dalton and TY Hilton to get Brady and Mike Williams (non-PPR). I have Jimmie Graham, who I felt would be more reliable since he's a true TE1 for his team, and with all the WR injuries, figured he'd have more opportunity. That snap count differential between Ebron and Doyle is amazing, and you have to feel like a regression is on its way. The again, haven't we all been hearing that for the last 9 weeks since the multi-TD game in week 1?

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4 hours ago, togo said:

Same here. I got both Doyle and Ebron.

Played Doyle this week.

Both got only 3 targets.....

Not sure who to play moving forward. Throw there names in a hat and pick one?? Get another TE??

 

Seriously???? 

Ebron is the TE3 so far this season and has more than 10 PPR points in 8/10 games.  He's a must start every week ROS.  The Colts clearly are utilizing him better than the Lions ever did and he's near a lock for multiple red-zone targets every week.  

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49 minutes ago, Steelers4Life said:

If you feel Ebron is going to continue scoring TDs nearly every week, he's a must start and a guy you keep. If you feel that he's due to regress in the TD department, then getting a few targets and running 20 routes a game isn't going to net you many good weeks.

I cashed in and sold him for Christian Kirk in a dynasty league last week where TE's get 1.5 PPR and you can start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 2 or 3 flex players every week. Maybe his value would be higher this week, but as long as his playing time or number of targets/routes doesn't change, he's someone I have a hard time believing will continue to score this way.

I think you are right in making that trade, especially in a dynasty.  In a redraft, however, I’m inclined to ride the TD streak out & hope it lasts the season.  

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1 hour ago, Steelers4Life said:

If you feel Ebron is going to continue scoring TDs nearly every week, he's a must start and a guy you keep. If you feel that he's due to regress in the TD department, then getting a few targets and running 20 routes a game isn't going to net you many good weeks.

I cashed in and sold him for Christian Kirk in a dynasty league last week where TE's get 1.5 PPR and you can start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, and 2 or 3 flex players every week. Maybe his value would be higher this week, but as long as his playing time or number of targets/routes doesn't change, he's someone I have a hard time believing will continue to score this way.

I don't feel like Ebron is going to continue to keep this TD pace. But one of the big reasons why I liked him so much coming into this season was that he finished the second half last year as a part time player for the Lions, averaged 30 snaps a game, and was a top 5 TE during that stretch putting up over 14 fantasy points a game in 1.5 PPR format.  ETA-He did that last year with a modest TD pace of 3 in 8 games, a pace of 6 for the season.

1 hour ago, Bayhawks said:

I think you are right in making that trade, especially in a dynasty.  In a redraft, however, I’m inclined to ride the TD streak out & hope it lasts the season.  

If you believe Kirk is a big time talent but Ebron is the more productive player right now at a more difficult position to fill in TE premium leagues, still young, and both he and Doyle's contracts run out at end of next year so it's not like he is forever cast in a low snap count role. I think it's a close trade but the TE premium leagues I have Ebron I would not give him up for Kirk myself, but those leagues also only require you to start 2 WR's and not 3.

Edited by menobrown
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Carrying a lot of my teams this year along with Mahomes, JuJu, and Tyreek. Have him in 5/6 leagues.

The snap count is a little troubling, but Luck knows how to find him and he's finally living up to his draft billing. I'm going to ride the wave until it crashes because I don't have viable alternatives in leagues where I'm rolling out EE every week. This feels like a magic season for him and I'm just trying to capitalize on it while it lasts.

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left him on the bench last week because of the previous weeks usage, will roll him out every week despite it going forward because I'm betting on Luck and the HC/OC to put him in favorable spots/mismatches. IND can score and he is the only RZ threat. Tough to get excited about three targets, but I'd rather have three from Luck right now than six from A Smith (goodbye Reed).

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

If you believe Kirk is a big time talent but Ebron is the more productive player right now at a more difficult position to fill in TE premium leagues, still young, and both he and Doyle's contracts run out at end of next year so it's not like he is forever cast in a low snap count role. I think it's a close trade but the TE premium leagues I have Ebron I would not give him up for Kirk myself, but those leagues also only require you to start 2 WR's and not 3.

Yeah, starting 2 WRs instead of 3+ is a huge difference.

Not that anyone cares about my team, but for context, I made the trade at least in part because I also have OJ Howard and Evan Engram, both of whom I like more than Eric Ebron in a dynasty league, as well as Mark Andrews who I also like. If Ebron was my top TE or even my top backup, I may have kept him just because of the position he plays. But in a league where you have to start 3 WRs and can start as many as 5 or 6, WR depth is far more important than TE depth to me.

I do like Kirk because I believe that Rosen is the real deal eventually. Kirk fits in behind JuJu, Robinson, and Gordon and alongside Mike Williams, Antonio Callaway, and hopefully Josh Reynolds to give me some much needed WR depth in this format.

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3 hours ago, menobrown said:

Even in 1.5 PPR TE premium leagues if you isolate Ebron to just the games that Doyle played he's putting up 16.95 points to Doyle's 12.9 points.

 

See reply above. Ebron got 17 snaps yesterday to Doyle's 48. On the season in games together Ebron is averaging 23 snaps a game and Doyle is at 60 but in any format Ebron has been the better fantasy player.

I think Doyle feels safer due to the higher snap count. And if you planning to watch the game it sure feels better when you see your player on the field with at least a fighting chance to score on a given play but reality is the snap counts have not been a good indicator on who to use between the two.

 

As a person who works in data analytics, I'm always assuming regression vs opportunity. From a pure numbers perspective, Ebron's scoring seems really flukey. But, it can certainly continue, no doubt. I think they are both quality plays this season, but Ebron's floor is going to be really low on a couple of weeks in the future (statistically).

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On 11/11/2018 at 11:24 PM, fred_1_15301 said:

I benched this guy this week but still not sure what to do with him going forward.  3 targets and 3 TDs?

My cousin has him on one of his teams and he benched him because he was listening to hop heads like Berry saying that Ebron is TD dependent with Doyle back in the line up.

Yup he is TD dependent alright. ?

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12 hours ago, tricky92 said:

As a person who works in data analytics, I'm always assuming regression vs opportunity. From a pure numbers perspective, Ebron's scoring seems really flukey. But, it can certainly continue, no doubt. I think they are both quality plays this season, but Ebron's floor is going to be really low on a couple of weeks in the future (statistically).

Every te not named Ertz and Kelce has a low floor. I understand TDs are variable but you cant ignore past production. Ebron is this team's first RZ read and as I don't expect that to change, his chance at a td every week shouldn't change either. 

People need to look past snap counts and look at RZ usage.

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4 minutes ago, DarkKnightsGuru said:

guy has been receiving less than 35 percent snaps and a handful of targets but he continues to convert the targets to tds.. 

Both were blown coverages too.  Nobody covered Ebron on both his TD catches. Luck spotted that right away.

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1 hour ago, Da Guru said:

Both were blown coverages too.  Nobody covered Ebron on both his TD catches. Luck spotted that right away.

And on the TD catch by Mo Allie Cox,  Ebron had broke wide open for what would have likely been an even easier TD then the one Luck threw to Cox.

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Going to post this here and the Jack DOyle thread:

Quote

Observations: Jack Doyle ran 21 routes on 49-of-56 offensive snaps (88%) Sunday, but it amounted to just three targets and 36 yards. Eric Ebron ran 12 routes on 21 snaps (38%), but it somehow led to three targets and two touchdowns. In the four games Doyle’s played, Ebron’s run 66 fewer routes (122 to 56) and seen 10 fewer targets (25 to 15) as the team’s backup tight end, but has somehow managed to score four more touchdowns than Doyle (5 to 1) in those outings. It’s obviously unsustainable production (though I said that last week and here we are).

 

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