Mike Evans, BuccaneersThere is a "been there, done that" factor here, as
Mike Evans was a top-10 receiver in standard leagues last year. As a rookie, Evans rewarded owners who took him in the mid to late rounds last year as a solid contributor to their fantasy teams. However, it is fair to point out that the big receiver scored 44.1 percent of his fantasy points in three consecutive games midseason where he blew up for 458 yards and five touchdowns. Those contests came against the
Browns,
Falcons and
Redskins -- none of whom fielded successful secondaries last year. In general, his season totals were inflated by, and his successful fantasy outputs dependent upon, touchdowns. Scoring 12 times, while impressive, is quite a difficult feat to replicate.
So, really, your approach to
Mike Evans will be all about how you want to play the odds. The safe money is on him not replicating his touchdown production of a year ago. However, what many are overlooking is that Evans can still make good on his ADP even if he comes in short of 12 scores. Last year, he turned 123 targets into 68 catches and just over 1,051 yards. Not the sterling example of efficiency, but his teammate
Vincent Jackson turned 142 targets into 1,002 yards and 70 catches with the same quarterbacks. There is no question who the better player is at this point, and we should expect Jackson and Evans' target totals to reverse this upcoming season.
Jameis Winston is not likely to produce
Andrew Luck level stats as a rookie, but he should improve the offense enough to give a boost to both of his top receivers. Improvement behind center should lift Evans' efficiency, and make any potential touchdown decline easier to manage. With this new quarterback, we should expect Evans to receive more targets, and improve on both his rookie yardage and catch totals.
With Winston opening things up, the
Buccaneers should find themselves in the red zone and scoring position far more often. This should benefit Evans, who has the size, long arms and physical mindset to dominate in that area of the field. As a rookie, the majority of his touchdowns came on vertical routes where he streaked down the field and was asked to "just go get it". These type of routes required very little anticipation or touch from the quarterback, both of which are skills
Jameis Winston is proficient in.
During his 40-touchdown season at Florida State, Winston made beautiful music with a 6-foot-5 target in
Kelvin Benjamin. The two former Seminoles were adept at playing off each other's skill sets; Winston the aggressive passer, and Benjamin the "fight for the ball" receiver. As an NFL player, Winston will essentially be paired with the souped-up version of his former Florida State teammate, in
Mike Evans. His abilities as a jump ball-in-traffic receiver align much more with the way Winston plays the game than the sideline streaking ways of
Vincent Jackson.
As it stands today,
Mike Evans is going as one of the first 12 wide receivers off the board in fantasy drafts. The expectations are that he will perform as a WR1. However, there is a catch. Evans comes in at the tail end of that discussion, and with many owners targeting running backs early, he rarely goes in the first two rounds. In fact, Evans currently carries a
fourth round ADP in NFL.com leagues. All signs point to him returning value at that spot, and his special gifts as a wide receiver make him a strong candidate to score more like an early second round pick.
Ultimately, whether you draft
Mike Evans or not is about how you want to play
fantasy football. Sure, there are safer options for your top receiver. That approach can certainly make your team a very good one. However, if you want to take a player that will help you lay waste to the rest of your league and potentially dominate the competition,
Mike Evans gives you that for a fair price.
