Dynasty & Redraft: WR Allen Robinson, Bears

[need2know 6,209]

Staying far away

[jm192 1,721]

I can easily see him finishing the season with 800 and 5.  I projected him for 960 and 6.  

FBG has his ADP at 48--end of the 4th round. 

5th round receivers:  Josh Gordon(who I also don't trust) had decent production last season.  

Marvin Jones:  1000 and 9 last year, better QB. 

6th Round:  Corey Davis, Crabtree, Hogan

7th:  Watkins, Goodwin, Edleman, Fuller, Sanders.  

Footballguys has Goodwin and Crabtree ranked above him despite the differences in ADP.  

I can see several of those guys giving you similar production, and you can get them all much later.  If I was getting Robinson in the 7th/8th, maybe I can't resist the upside.  In the 4th round--I'd rather regret him having 1200 yards than regret him having 800.  

Depending on where you pick in the 4th--Fitzgerald is going off the board at ADP 38, which feels absurd.  Landry won't break any yardage records, but based on the pre-season, the target volume appears reliable.  You've got JJSS, Drake, Ajay, Tate.  I've seen Doug Baldwin and Collins slip into the 4th in several mocks.  

 

[flapgreen 5,934]

Still a stud and young. Now with a better qb and running game than he's had in his career. 

[King of the Jungle 1,382]

7 minutes ago, flapgreen said:

Still a stud and young. Now with a better qb and running game than he's had in his career. 

I think the issue will be targets. Burton, Gabriel, Miller, Cohen, Howard....

[flapgreen 5,934]

1 minute ago, King of the Jungle said:

I think the issue will be targets. Burton, Gabriel, Miller, Cohen, Howard....

Yes, that's a legitimate concern. 

[Truebluey 460]

7 hours ago, jm192 said:

I can easily see him finishing the season with 800 and 5.  I projected him for 960 and 6.  

FBG has his ADP at 48--end of the 4th round. 

5th round receivers:  Josh Gordon(who I also don't trust) had decent production last season.  

Marvin Jones:  1000 and 9 last year, better QB. 

6th Round:  Corey Davis, Crabtree, Hogan

7th:  Watkins, Goodwin, Edleman, Fuller, Sanders.  

 

Depending on where you pick in the 4th--Fitzgerald is going off the board at ADP 38, which feels absurd.  Landry won't break any yardage records, but based on the pre-season, the target volume appears reliable.  You've got JJSS, Drake, Ajay, Tate.  I've seen Doug Baldwin and Collins slip into the 4th in several mocks.  

 

 

Not sure where you're getting you're ADPs?  In snake 12-team PPR mocks Fitz is going at about ADP 24-25 (so that's a long way off 38), and I haven't seen Hoigan Or Davis last till the 6th round in 2 weeks. Hogan is going mid 4th now, and I've seen him go early 4th.

But overall I agree that Robinson scares me at his ADP.

[Chaka 6,241]

15 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

I think the issue will be targets. Burton, Gabriel, Miller, Cohen, Howard....

None of those guys should be a concern to anyone.

[flapgreen 5,934]

1 hour ago, Chaka said:

None of those guys should be a concern to anyone.

Wrong 

[Chaka 6,241]

3 hours ago, flapgreen said:

Wrong 

Nope.

20 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

I think the issue will be targets. Burton, Gabriel, Miller, Cohen, Howard....

Unknown. Never been. Rookie. Good receiving back. Bad receiving back. Big deal.  

None of those guys is a #1 WR or capable of siphoning off targets from the only legitimate #1 WR on the team.

[zamboni 6,682]

14 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Nope.

Unknown. Never been. Rookie. Good receiving back. Bad receiving back. Big deal.  

None of those guys is a #1 WR or capable of siphoning off targets from the only legitimate #1 WR on the team.

There doesn’t have to be proven options to siphon off targets, just credible enough to get open and catch the ball when the opposing top corner (and perhaps double team) is/are covering Robinson.

[Chaka 6,241]

4 minutes ago, zamboni said:

There doesn’t have to be proven options to siphon off targets, just credible enough to get open and catch the ball when the opposing top corner (and perhaps double team) is/are covering Robinson.

How Is this different from any number one receiver in the NFL?

The only concern for Robinson should be the state of his knee.

[zamboni 6,682]

8 minutes ago, Chaka said:

How Is this different from any number one receiver in the NFL?

The only concern for Robinson should be the state of his knee.

Some #1 guys are force fed the ball, like Brown, Julio, OBJ and Green. I don’t see Robinson being in that mix. 

Edited August 26, 2018 by zamboni

[Chaka 6,241]

3 minutes ago, zamboni said:

Some #1 guys are force fed the ball, like Brown, Julio, OBJ and Green. I don’t see Robinson being in that mix. 

Who does?

[cloppbeast 1,415]

2 hours ago, zamboni said:

Some #1 guys are force fed the ball, like Brown, Julio, OBJ and Green. I don’t see Robinson being in that mix. 

Strawman. Who is taking ar15 in the 1st-2nd?

[Wise Old Owl 325]

1 hour ago, cloppbeast said:

Strawman. Who is taking ar15 in the 1st-2nd?

Yeah this is a weird argument. If anything he's in the best possible spot. Clear #1 WR but with good enough role players to keep defenses from completely selling out to stop him. Which I don't even think would be likely due to the fact that Howard is such an effective back. 

[Faust 5,027]

Quote

Allen Robinson caught 4-of-7 targets for 61 yards in Chicago's Week 1 loss to the Packers.

Robinson led the team in receiving and targets. Week 1 confirmed he's Chicago's clear No. 1 option, but his upside is limited in a Mitchell Trubisky offense. The main takeway is Robinson is fully healthy and primed for a bounce back year. He'll match up with Shaquill Griffin next Monday night.

Sep 10 - 12:30 AM

 

[IheartGuinness 450]

Still not sure how confident I feel about this guy. And I think he's going to have a tough time against Peterson this week. The targets have been there, but I don't know that the production will continue. How do other people rate him?

[King of the Jungle 1,382]

38 minutes ago, IheartGuinness said:

Still not sure how confident I feel about this guy. And I think he's going to have a tough time against Peterson this week. The targets have been there, but I don't know that the production will continue. How do other people rate him?

I thought he looked better then expected so far. Mitch has missed him on a couple of big throws that could make a big difference in perception. 

 

[Twenty-Four Eighty-Four 678]

I'm starting Kupp over him this week. I dont like matchup with Peterson.

[Faust 5,027]

Quote

Allen Robinson caught 2-of-4 targets for 23 yards and one touchdown in the Bears' Week 4 victory over the Buccaneers.

Robinson's 20 yards and ensuing touchdown wouldn't ordinarily be a letdown, but it came on a day in which Mitchell Trubisky threw for career-highs in yards (354) and touchdowns (6). Normally the recipient during the majority of his drop backs, Trubisky instead fed backup RB Tarik Cohen (7-121-1), Taylor Gabriel (7-104-2), and Trey Burton (2-86-1) rather than A-Rob. Robinson should still be the primary beneficiary moving forward now that the Bears' offense appears to be clicking on all cylinders. Unless he's shadowed by premier CB Xavien Howard after the bye, Robinson will stay a low-end WR2 against the Dolphins.

Sep 30 - 9:39 PM

 

[Faust 5,027]

Allen Robinson (groin) was downgraded to "DNP" on Thursday.

Robinson had been "limited" on Wednesday. The Chicago Tribune considers Robinson's status for Sunday's game against the Patriots "unknown." Robinson's absence would thrust Taylor Gabriel into a potential WR2 role while also creating more target opportunities for Trey Burton, Tarik Cohen and Anthony Miller.

Source: Rich Campbell on Twitter 

Oct 18 - 5:22 PM

[Faust 5,027]

Quote

Allen Robinson (groin) is expected to play against the Patriots in Week 7.

Robinson practiced Friday and was considered on track to play. He'll continue to start in 3-WR sets with Taylor Gabriel and slot wideout Anthony Miller. Robinson arguably has the toughest matchup (albeit a winnable one) among Chicago's wideouts as he'll likely draw shadow coverage from Stephen Gilmore. He remains a risky WR2 considering he tweaked his groin only four days ago.

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter 

Oct 21 - 2:01 AM

 

[rickyg 832]

I think he is drop worthy.  Not healthy. Hasn’t has more than 7 targets since week 3.  Trubisquick spreads the ball around.  Miller seems like he’s coming on.  Gabriel and Cohen getting looks.  Tough schedule upcoming. 

[Bronco Billy 2,667]

16 minutes ago, rickyg said:

I think he is drop worthy.  Not healthy. Hasn’t has more than 7 targets since week 3.  Trubisquick spreads the ball around.  Miller seems like he’s coming on.  Gabriel and Cohen getting looks.  Tough schedule upcoming. 

 

8 team league?  He’s WR46 in our league even with last week’s crap.  That’s rosterable even in typical 10 team leagues.

 

.

Edited October 26, 2018 by Bronco Billy

[rickyg 832]

18 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

8 team league?  He’s WR46 in our league even with last week’s crap.  That’s rosterable even in typical 10 team leagues.

 

.

12 team standard scoring league.  I’d rather have the upside of guys like Anthony Miller and courtland Sutton than him.  Look at what he’s done through 6 games in a standard league.  He’s not a must roster kind of guy.  Put his numbers on Geronimo Allison and Allison would be in the waiver wire.  We are all holding him on name value.  

[Bronco Billy 2,667]

6 hours ago, rickyg said:

12 team standard scoring league.  I’d rather have the upside of guys like Anthony Miller and courtland Sutton than him.  Look at what he’s done through 6 games in a standard league.  He’s not a must roster kind of guy.  Put his numbers on Geronimo Allison and Allison would be in the waiver wire.  We are all holding him on name value.  

 

I disagree.  When he’s healthy he’s his team’s WR1.  I believe you are undervaluing him substantially.

[Steelers4Life 415]

His numbers are a bit skewed because the Bears were up by like 30 in the 2nd quarter against the Bucs and they didn't have to throw and he was basically an injured decoy last week.  Sounds like he's going to miss this week too.

In his other 4 games, he has 22 catches for 258 yards and a TD. He had a someone limited preseason too, I'd think he's still developing chemistry with Trubisky, and he might be a little more volatile for a while.

I don't see a format where he's droppable unless you don't think he gets healthy, because as his team's WR1, he's got way more potential than anyone you'd pick up anyways. In dynasty, he's still a strong hold.

[jm192 1,721]

Feels like a solid buy low actually.  Mitch is for real.  Offense moving the ball moreso lately.  A-Rob will eventually eat.

[rickyg 832]

7 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

I disagree.  When he’s healthy he’s his team’s WR1.  I believe you are undervaluing him substantially.

Quite possibly.  Wouldn’t be the first time I gave up on a player prematurely.  He’s been buried on my bench going on 3 weeks now.  Don’t feel like I can trust him with the lack of involvement and now the injury.  My team is struggling and I need high upside ascending players who have league winning potential.  I just don’t see him as that.  If I’m wrong, so be it. 

[King of the Jungle 1,382]

With Gabriel/Miller ascending and Cohen/Burton involved....I just don’t really see anyone being a consistent top dog in this offense.

[-X- 374]

Not expected to play vs. NYJ (per B/R).

[zamboni 6,682]

Anyone already have or planning on cutting bait on Robinson?

Beyond the injuries, I am not sure if he's just not as good as we thought (or the team thought in giving him a mega contract), the Bears offense is designed to spread the ball around, or some combination of the two.

In any event, with Miller, Gabriel, Burton and Cohen all getting targets, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of upside for AR when he gets healthy. Dynasty-wise, too, considering the guys around him are also young.

 

[rickyg 832]

On 10/31/2018 at 2:47 PM, zamboni said:

Anyone already have or planning on cutting bait on Robinson?

Beyond the injuries, I am not sure if he's just not as good as we thought (or the team thought in giving him a mega contract), the Bears offense is designed to spread the ball around, or some combination of the two.

In any event, with Miller, Gabriel, Burton and Cohen all getting targets, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of upside for AR when he gets healthy. Dynasty-wise, too, considering the guys around him are also young.

 

Dropped him for miller last week.  

[flapgreen 5,934]

Robinson, and likely Mack, only missed last week and this coming Sunday's games because they were easier opponents and the Bears could likely win without them. If they were tough teams, both guys would've likely played IMO.   Robinson is still a great WR, but as someone mentioned further up the page, the Bears scheme may keep him from being a top guy every week when he comes back. I definitely wouldn't just drop the guy. Hell, k may try to trade for him if people are this down on him. 

[xenon 24]

I dropped him too.  Looks like some tough match ups for CHI WR's coming up as well

[Steelers4Life 415]

On ‎10‎/‎31‎/‎2018 at 2:47 PM, zamboni said:

Anyone already have or planning on cutting bait on Robinson?

Beyond the injuries, I am not sure if he's just not as good as we thought (or the team thought in giving him a mega contract), the Bears offense is designed to spread the ball around, or some combination of the two.

In any event, with Miller, Gabriel, Burton and Cohen all getting targets, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of upside for AR when he gets healthy. Dynasty-wise, too, considering the guys around him are also young.

 

Tough to say.  They may be getting all those targets because of circumstances around Robinson. He's in his first year off a major injury, playing on a new team, with a first year starting QB who he didn't get to develop any chemistry with in the offseason and he missed the preseason games, too.

He wasn't off to a terrible start before hurting his groin, and given the circumstances, expectations for this year - or at least the early part of it - shouldn't have been that high to start with. His 2018 may not amount to much, but I still see him as a top 20ish dynasty WR.

[Payne 547]

He was dropped in one of my leagues and I couldn't wait to scoop him up as my #4 WR. 

WR4 with WR1 potential.

[davearm 921]

On 10/31/2018 at 1:47 PM, zamboni said:

Anyone already have or planning on cutting bait on Robinson?

Beyond the injuries, I am not sure if he's just not as good as we thought (or the team thought in giving him a mega contract), the Bears offense is designed to spread the ball around, or some combination of the two.

In any event, with Miller, Gabriel, Burton and Cohen all getting targets, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of upside for AR when he gets healthy. Dynasty-wise, too, considering the guys around him are also young.

 

Another owner in my league dropped both Robinson and Gabriel this week.  Must've figured out what you just said.

[thecardiackid 83]

He's on my WW and I'm looking to replace Mostert after IR.

Anyone optimistic, even w/ the upcoming schedule?  His playoff schedule is not bad w 2 home games and @ SF  And da berrrs are certainly in the playoff hunt.

It's him or another lotto ticket like Ware KC or Malcom Brown. 

 

 

[gbill2004 182]

On 11/2/2018 at 10:01 AM, Payne said:

He was dropped in one of my leagues and I couldn't wait to scoop him up as my #4 WR. 

WR4 with WR1 potential.

2 team league?  

[Payne 547]

1 hour ago, gbill2004 said:

2 team league?  

This never gets old, does it? ?

Actually short bench, competitive 12 team league.

 

[SaintsInDome2006 47,463]

On 11/2/2018 at 10:01 AM, Payne said:

He was dropped in one of my leagues and I couldn't wait to scoop him up as my #4 WR. 

WR4 with WR1 potential.

I don’t see him as a WR1 at all. Desperation TD dependent flex at best.

[zamboni 6,682]

On 11/1/2018 at 11:28 PM, Steelers4Life said:

 His 2018 may not amount to much, but I still see him as a top 20ish dynasty WR.

I can’t see that dynasty-wise when you have young and capable guys in Miller/Gabriel/Burton/Cohen around to get targets.

The Bears seemed to overpay for AR, but to be fair, had Miller fall into their laps at the draft and Gabriel has likely given the team much  more than expected.

Edited November 4, 2018 by zamboni

[Steelers4Life 415]

Double post - disregard

Edited November 4, 2018 by Steelers4Life

[Steelers4Life 415]

10 minutes ago, zamboni said:

I can’t see that dynasty-wise when you have young and capable guys in Miller/Gabriel/Burton/Cohen around to get targets.

The Bears seemed to overpay for AR, but to be fair, had Miller fall into their laps at the draft and Gabriel has likely given the team much  more than expected.

It's fair to see it that way, but none of those guys are talented enough that I'd expect them to be a huge issue for him in the future. Lots of top WRs have other pass catching threats around them.

Having Burton is a nice thing for the offense as a whole, and neither Miller or Gabriel are guys who'd threaten his #1 WR status.

Cohen has been around this year to pick up the slack left behind by Robinson. But Cohen caught 7 total passes in the first 3 games when Robinson was healthy. He was used a lot in the 4th game they routed the Bucs, but the Bears didn't really need to do much that day. Then after the bye Robinson put up 5-64-1 before hurting his groin, and in those weeks since Cohen has blown up.

All of those guys can have a role, but none of them are concerns to me regarding Robinson's future. Having other threats may actually benefit him in the long run. Given his offseason it was kind of foolish to expect a big 2018, but I'd try to buy him for 2019 if an owner has soured on him.

[zamboni 6,682]

18 minutes ago, Steelers4Life said:

It's fair to see it that way, but none of those guys are talented enough that I'd expect them to be a huge issue for him in the future. Lots of top WRs have other pass catching threats around them.

Having Burton is a nice thing for the offense as a whole, and neither Miller or Gabriel are guys who'd threaten his #1 WR status.

Cohen has been around this year to pick up the slack left behind by Robinson. But Cohen caught 7 total passes in the first 3 games when Robinson was healthy. He was used a lot in the 4th game they routed the Bucs, but the Bears didn't really need to do much that day. Then after the bye Robinson put up 5-64-1 before hurting his groin, and in those weeks since Cohen has blown up.

All of those guys can have a role, but none of them are concerns to me regarding Robinson's future. Having other threats may actually benefit him in the long run. Given his offseason it was kind of foolish to expect a big 2018, but I'd try to buy him for 2019 if an owner has soured on him.

Fair points, but I think you might be underestimating Miller. The guy has a lot of skill and may eventually emerge as the #1 option - if there is one - in the passing game.

[HULLOBUDMAN 40]

I added him in a trade as WR4. I think you may have the chance to start him in the flex and have WR1 upside if he gets healthy. Weeks 14/15/16 are LAR/GB/SF so not horrible.

[Faust 5,027]

Quote

The Chicago Tribune's Dan Wiederer believes Allen Robinson (ribs) is a "good bet to get some healing time" this week.

Robinson has missed practice time with a hip injury the last several weeks, and he did not practice Wednesday because of a ribs issue. The Bears can still earn a first-round bye with a win and Rams loss, but the Rams are 10-point home favorites over the 49ers. With a bye unlikely, the Bears could decide to rest up for the Wild Card round. That would be good news for the Vikings, who need a win to earn a playoff berth.

Source: Dan Wiederer on Twitter 

Dec 27 - 9:25 AM

 

[Faust 5,027]

Quote

Allen Robinson caught 10-of-13 targets for 143 yards and one touchdown in the Bears' 16-15, Wild Card loss to the Eagles.

The 10 catches and 143 yards were both season-highs for Robinson, and the touchdown was his first since Week 10. Robinson was working over overmatched fourth-round rookie CB Avonte Maddox much of the evening. His first season back from a torn ACL, Robinson had two 100-yard games in his opening year with the Bears, finishing with a receiving line of 65-897-5 in 14 games, missing a couple to various injures as Robinson seemed to rarely be completely healthy. Overall, this offense spread the ball around too much, and Mitchell Trubisky's play was far too inconsistent to make Robinson a reliable weekly fantasy player. He needs Trubisky to take another step forward in year three, his second with coach Matt Nagy. Robinson will be 26 in August.

Jan 6 - 8:08 PM

 

[jm192 1,721]

Curious what the shark pool predicts from him next season.  

 

He has broken 900 yards once in his career.  I've seen him projected in the teens of WR rankings up to the early 20's.  He missed 3 games this season.  Missed virtually all of the season before.  He'll be the #1 WR on the Bears.  I feel like Trusbisky is already pretty good and going to keep getting better.  That said, I feel like he'll always be 800 and 6.  Is the upside for more there, sure.  But I feel like he's low on my totem pole of upside until you get into the mid-late 20's of WR rankings.  I've currently got him at WR28 or WR29.