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WR Allen Robinson, CHI


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20 hours ago, mcd said:

Just looking up players that I remember, Fitzgerald went from a worse season than Robinson in 2014 to a top ten 2015. Hilton had a similar season to Robinson in 2015 to a top 10 2016. I don't think this is that uncommon and certainly not the first. Ever.

I didn't say top 10 season, I said top 10 dynasty asset.  Larry Fitzgerald was never again considered a top 10 dynasty asset or anything near it.  TY Hilton had 300 more yards receiving than Robinson in his "down" year and was still top 15 in the NFL in receiving that year, which isn't even comparable to Robinson's 2016.

There have been some elderly WRs with nearly a decade's worth of great production to have an off year, but that's not what I'm talking about.  As far as I can recall no one with Allen Robinson's value entering 2016 has ever had a season this bad and then regained that value or anything near it.  23 year old studs who are being taken in the 1st round of dynasty start-ups just don't have a healthy season this bad and then bounce back to where they were.  At least, there isn't any precedent for it so far.  Several guys (Robinson and Gurley) will have a chance to blaze that trail but historically when this kind of thing has happened it's always been Braylon Edwards, Michael Clayton, Drew Bennett, Randall Cobb, etc where the breakout year was the aberration, not the other way around.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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  • 3 months later...
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Allen Robinson believes he has "earned" a contract extension.

The former second-round pick is set to earn $898,755 in the final year of his rookie deal. "If we get something done, we do," said Robinson. "If not, I have a big year coming ahead for me and I have an obligation to my teammates to play at a high level." Robinson was a monster in 2015 (80 catches, 1,400 yards, 14 touchdowns) but disappeared for stretches during a lackluster 2016 campaign (73/883/6). A-Rob averaged over 100 yards per game after Doug Marrone took over as head coach late last season and should be in for a bounce-back year.
 
 
Apr 16 - 11:50 AM

 

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7 hours ago, Faust said:

Allen Robinson believes he has "earned" a contract extension.

The former second-round pick is set to earn $898,755 in the final year of his rookie deal. "If we get something done, we do," said Robinson. "If not, I have a big year coming ahead for me and I have an obligation to my teammates to play at a high level." Robinson was a monster in 2015 (80 catches, 1,400 yards, 14 touchdowns) but disappeared for stretches during a lackluster 2016 campaign (73/883/6). A-Rob averaged over 100 yards per game after Doug Marrone took over as head coach late last season and should be in for a bounce-back year.

Please Jacksonville, don't resign him. Let him go forth to a team with QB talent!

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Brandon Marshall and Allen Robinson – On a per-target basis, the three most inefficient wide receivers (in terms of actual opportunity over actual fantasy points) were (in order) Marshall, Jermaine Kearse, and Robinson. In terms of total Actual Opportunity points left on the table, Marshall and Robinson rank second- and third-worst of the past decade, respectively, each scoring at least 65 points below their expectation. In 2015, Robinson ranked top-five in air yards, targets inside the 10-yard line, and targets inside the 20-yard line per game. In 2016, Robinson saw an only marginal decrease in every meaningful statistic, and actually saw a slight increase in targets per game. In terms of Actual Opportunity, he dropped only very slightly, finishing six Actual Opportunity points less than 2015. However, he declined immensely in efficiency, dropping by 106.7 fantasy points. Perhaps this is due to early reports that Blake Bortles played through “two shoulder separations and wrist tendinitis” in 2016. Either way, Robinson makes for one of my favorite candidates to regress positively in 2017.

Most overrated and overvalued dynasty WR. 

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20 minutes ago, Tejas said:

Brandon Marshall and Allen Robinson – On a per-target basis, the three most inefficient wide receivers (in terms of actual opportunity over actual fantasy points) were (in order) Marshall, Jermaine Kearse, and Robinson. In terms of total Actual Opportunity points left on the table, Marshall and Robinson rank second- and third-worst of the past decade, respectively, each scoring at least 65 points below their expectation. In 2015, Robinson ranked top-five in air yards, targets inside the 10-yard line, and targets inside the 20-yard line per game. In 2016, Robinson saw an only marginal decrease in every meaningful statistic, and actually saw a slight increase in targets per game. In terms of Actual Opportunity, he dropped only very slightly, finishing six Actual Opportunity points less than 2015. However, he declined immensely in efficiency, dropping by 106.7 fantasy points. Perhaps this is due to early reports that Blake Bortles played through “two shoulder separations and wrist tendinitis” in 2016. Either way, Robinson makes for one of my favorite candidates to regress positively in 2017.

Most overrated and overvalued dynasty WR. 

 

If you are going to cut and paste, you might want to link the article the passage came from.

 

Odd last statement from you given the last sentence of the cited portion of the article you posted.  

 

Also interesting that both Mashall and Robinson played for teams with some of the worst team QBRs and Comp % in the league.

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1 hour ago, Tejas said:

Allen Robinson averaged 1.93 yards of separation at target. That ranked 15th out of 15 receivers with 100-plus targets out wide.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000776703/article/antonio-brown-leads-top10-no-1-wrs-in-separation

There's a reason they fired the OC. Do you have the stats after the New OC started? They never moved him around on the line, so his routes became predictable. 

 

1 hour ago, Tejas said:

Full disclosure: I sold Robinson in all of my FFPC dynasty leagues, was lucky enough to land 1.1 for him. 

Don't see how this is related... Robinson for 1.1 is a good trade, but that isn't related to the article you posted, and then contradicted.  Robinson was held back by play calling and QB play. His skills from 2015 didn't change going into 2016.  He had an extraordinary YPR in 2015 which he might not be able to recreate, but he could easily get back into the top 10 at WR.

Also, he's a FA after this year and who knows what his QB situation will be after this season.

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22 minutes ago, steelers1080 said:

There's a reason they fired the OC. Do you have the stats after the New OC started? They never moved him around on the line, so his routes became predictable. 

 

Don't see how this is related... Robinson for 1.1 is a good trade, but that isn't related to the article you posted, and then contradicted.  Robinson was held back by play calling and QB play. His skills from 2015 didn't change going into 2016.  He had an extraordinary YPR in 2015 which he might not be able to recreate, but he could easily get back into the top 10 at WR.

Also, he's a FA after this year and who knows what his QB situation will be after this season.

I don't believe it has as much as you perceive it to be with the quarterback situation, we have differentiating opinions on how successful of a 2014 season Robinson had from actual football metrics perspective. Much of his statistics were based on anomalies and outliers that will never be duplicated, the sheer amount of garbage time points he scored in the 4th quarter of games when games were out of reach is mind boggling. 

I do agree with you that he has an above average skill set, my opinion is he's vastly over rated when you delve into the statistics low level. Lots of players are good at a 30,000 ft. view. 

And the articles I posted are relevant, as they relate to deeper statistics; historically speaking, yards of separation has been a very telling statistic for Wide Recievers efficiency despite QB play or Coaching situations.  

It's only fair we speak about both positives and negatives. It would be unfair to lead the followers of this thread on to believe Robinson is an ascending top 10 talent. 

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18 minutes ago, Tejas said:

 

It's only fair we speak about both positives and negatives. It would be unfair to lead the followers of this thread on to believe Robinson is an ascending top 10 talent. 

 

Well, that is certainly unbiased and provable.  Given how bad Bortles and the JAX O were last year, I'm wondering why you're not willing to consider that to be the anomoly.  I mean other than your attempt to rationalize dealing him away by throwing him under the bus.

 

Even the article you cited as the foundation of your derision stated plainly that they expect Robinson to bounce back.

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4 hours ago, Tejas said:

Brandon Marshall and Allen Robinson – On a per-target basis, the three most inefficient wide receivers (in terms of actual opportunity over actual fantasy points) were (in order) Marshall, Jermaine Kearse, and Robinson. In terms of total Actual Opportunity points left on the table, Marshall and Robinson rank second- and third-worst of the past decade, respectively, each scoring at least 65 points below their expectation. In 2015, Robinson ranked top-five in air yards, targets inside the 10-yard line, and targets inside the 20-yard line per game. In 2016, Robinson saw an only marginal decrease in every meaningful statistic, and actually saw a slight increase in targets per game. In terms of Actual Opportunity, he dropped only very slightly, finishing six Actual Opportunity points less than 2015. However, he declined immensely in efficiency, dropping by 106.7 fantasy points. Perhaps this is due to early reports that Blake Bortles played through “two shoulder separations and wrist tendinitis” in 2016. Either way, Robinson makes for one of my favorite candidates to regress positively in 2017.

Most overrated and overvalued dynasty WR. 

These 2 sentences contradict. The article is saying that he will "regress positively" which is an idiotic way to say it, but they're saying that his mean value is higher than it was in 2016. Thus, he should go back to his mean value which is somewhere between his 2015 and 2016 stats. The opposite of currently being overvalued. It says that if people are projecting based off 2016 stats, he's undervalued.

Does he have a good catch percentage, no, it's god-awful. But he gets a ton of targets, he sees a lot of targets in the red-zone, and Bortles can't play much worse.

I admittedly only watched 3-4 Jags games this year, but at least 20% of Robinsons' targets were uncatchable. They were in the dirt or so far over his head it was laughable. That's the problem with stats. Just boiling players down to stats doesn't paint a complete picture of someone's game. 

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3 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Well, that is certainly unbiased and provable.  Given how bad Bortles and the JAX O were last year, I'm wondering why you're not willing to consider that to be the anomoly.

Bortles was 15th in the NFL last year in passing yards and 15th in pass TDs.

That's decidedly average.  There were plenty of numbers to go around for Robinson to get his.  The other WRs just did more than him.

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15 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Bortles was 15th in the NFL last year in passing yards and 15th in pass TDs.

That's decidedly average.  There were plenty of numbers to go around for Robinson to get his.  The other WRs just did more than him.

He lead the team in receiving and had twice as many TDs as anyone else...

After the Jags made a coaching change, with 2 weeks left, Robinson averaged 115 yards per game. That's obviously too short of a sample size to make any assumptions about a full season, but 147 and 82 are alright yardage #s.  The coaches talked about how he had been poorly used all year, that the other coaching staff wasn't moving him around at all and left him in a tough situation.

Many of the top WRs in the league move around the line so that the opposing defense has to try and match their coverage.  Just repeating the same formation over and over made the yardage of separation between him and the defender fall as the season progressed. If the defense knows what you're going to do, because you've been doing the same thing all season, then you have a small chance of success.

Not here to change people's minds, just want people to see that 2015 and 2016 probably aren't who Robinson is. He's probably somewhere in the middle.  Bortles is better than some and worse than some (lower third of the league in QBR in 2015 and 2016), but he's going to be the guy in 2017 and hopefully the new coaching regime can help him improve. His mechanics degraded a shocking amount from 2015 to 2016.

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18 hours ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

I was also confused by Tejas's post. 

What was confusing about the post? There are a multitude of metrics showing how pedestrian Robinson is, regardless of quarterback play, or play calling. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Tejas said:

What was confusing about the post? There are a multitude of metrics showing how pedestrian Robinson is, regardless of quarterback play, or play calling. 

 

Your article post finished with saying essentially that he will bounce back and be a great value. That directly contradicts your point.

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4 minutes ago, mikel2014 said:

Your article post finished with saying essentially that he will bounce back and be a great value. That directly contradicts your point.

The last statement in the article states Robinson is a prime candidate to regress. 

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Just now, Tejas said:

The last statement in the article states Robinson is a prime candidate to regress. 

...positively.

Which means the mean "Allen Robinson season" is better than last year. Last year was a down year, this year he will "regress positively" to a better season. Article said it weird, but that's what it means.

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I took it as a literal meaning of regress - to return to a less developed state.

Why didn't he just say I like Robinson to "bounce back" in 2017, value will be commensurate to 2016 performance, so he be valued correctly. Anything along those lines ??

Where do you rank Robinson in an initial dynasty draft, TE premium? 

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The whole "regress to the mean" thing was weird to use there whether it was positive or negative.  The guy has played two meaningful seasons.  We don't really know what his mean is.  We're talking about one of the least efficient lead WRs in the league who had one good season where he piled up huge garbage time stats in a top 5 passing offense that will likely never be near the top 5 again in the near future.

Why are we assuming that the mean is UP?

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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48 minutes ago, Tejas said:

I took it as a literal meaning of regress - to return to a less developed state.

Why didn't he just say I like Robinson to "bounce back" in 2017, value will be commensurate to 2016 performance, so he be valued correctly. Anything along those lines ??

Where do you rank Robinson in an initial dynasty draft, TE premium? 

prolly top 15-18

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It is confusing in the literal sense that regression and positive are two opposite ideas.

What I think the author means is that Robinson was very inefficient compared to an average WR in the NFL and that Robinson's efficiency may progress towards the league average for WR.

If he means progressing towards Robinson's average seasons, then I would agree with FreeBaGel that we likely do not have enough data to know what an average season for Allen Robinson looks like yet.


In 3 seasons Allen Robinson has played in 42 games 383 targets 201 receptions (52.3%) 2831 yards 14.1 ypr 22 TD 67.4 yards per game 

The average of these 3 seasons would be 101 targets 67 receptions 945 yards 7 TD or on a per game basis would be 9.1 targets 4.8 receptions 67 yards .5 TD which over 16 games would be 146 targets 77 receptions 1072 yards 8 TD

If Robinson does progress towards his current average it would be an improvement of about 200 yards and 2 TD from last season.

If the author means progressing towards the league average in efficiency stats, such as yards per target or catch rate, I think Robinson would need a better QB to realistically hope for that.

Another way the efficiency stats could improve towards the average is if the Jaguars are more effective running the ball and thus create better opportunities on play action and more balanced play calling. However this increase in efficiency would also be a reduction in the volume of pass attempts, and therefore targets to Robinson, so that may be a wash.

Edited by Biabreakable
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Arob is one of those divisive players. Some people love his potential, and others see him as a risk who had his best year in 2015 and won't recreate those garbage time stats.

I see him as a potential top 8 fantasy WR, and if he gets reliable QB play and decent play calling, I'd be willing to wager he's at least a top 12 guy this year. He's in a contract year, and usually that's when guys take their game to the next level.

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2 minutes ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Seriously, outside of OBJ and Evans, which other WRs under age 25 would you rank above Arob?

Hopkins, Cooper, and Thomas by a lot.

Closer but probably also Cooks as well.

I'd probably have him in the same tier as Watkins and Allen..

I know that's outside of consensus but I'm not on board with a consensus that dropped his ADP a whopping two spots (from 8 to 10) after that abortion of a season.  At least Allen and Watkins can mostly blame their struggles on injuries.  Robinson's excuse is that he was playing in that "horrible" 15th ranked passing offense that is probably only going to go down from there.

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57 minutes ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

I think Arob is absolutely a top 5 WR in dynasty. He's only 23 with 3 years of NFL experience and one of those years was already a top 5. 

I wouldn't go that far.  Lots of far less riskier vets I would rather have, even in a startup.  Julio, AJG, and Dez for sure and probably DT as well.  Especially in these leagues with contracts that will run out and require massive investments during RFA.

55 minutes ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Seriously, outside of OBJ and Evans, which other WRs under age 25 would you rank above Arob?

Agree entirely.  OBJ, Evans, Thomas, Hopkins, Arob in order. 

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 Thomas could have a slump after teams get more tape and he sees heavier coverage without Cooks to draw the safety. Also, Hopkins probably already had the best season of his career, unless they get a solid Vet, I don't see him being the same WR he was a couple years ago, he depends on receiving all the team's targets and they have Miller and Fuller to take some away now.

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It seems so odd to me that some people feel that a very young WR can't grow or have their situations improve.  Sure, it's possible that Robinson's best season of his career happened 2 years ago, but it's also quite possible that we haven't seen his best season yet.  I'm betting on the latter, not the former.

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  • 2 months later...
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Allen Robinson has been training with Randy Moss.

Robinson tweeted a video of himself going through agility drills with Moss coaching in the background. Moss has also been mentoring Redskins receivers Jamison Crowder and Terrelle Pryor. Robinson is coming off a down year for Jacksonville but should benefit from playing under offensive-minded head coach Doug Marrone. The Penn State alum is in the final year of his rookie deal.

Source: Allen Robinson on Twitter 

Jul 14 - 3:51 PM

Edited by Faust
Last section in bold for those who like players who will be motivated by being in a contract year
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35 minutes ago, Faust said:

Allen Robinson has been training with Randy Moss

...on how to take plays off?

I kid, as I have a very healthy respect for Moss, his impact and abilities. But his time with the Raiders will always stick in my craw.

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I heard a rumor that Allen Robinson has also been training with Keenan McCardell. My sources also tell me that Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder have been getting mentoring from Ike Hilliard, Breshad Perriman has been learning the ropes from Bobby Engram, and Kelvin Benjamin has been getting tips from Jerricho Cotchery. Big news if true!

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On 4/18/2017 at 1:02 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

The whole "regress to the mean" thing was weird to use there whether it was positive or negative.  The guy has played two meaningful seasons.  We don't really know what his mean is.  We're talking about one of the least efficient lead WRs in the league who had one good season where he piled up huge garbage time stats in a top 5 passing offense that will likely never be near the top 5 again in the near future.

Why are we assuming that the mean is UP?

I assume they meant regression in terms of his efficiency. In 2015, AR15 was stupid efficient. In 2016, AR15 was incredibly inefficient. He went from 80/1400/40 to 73/883/6. That is a swing from 17 yards per reception to 12 and a swing from a 17 % TD/Rec to 8% TD/R. Robinson had the exact same number of targets both seasons. I agree that it's silly to talk about the mean when we have 2 years of worthwhile samples. Especially given how much variance there is in those 2 samples. Also, I am not so sure Robinson gets 151 targets again. I could see that number coming down quite a bit. 

Edited by Ilov80s
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I am working from the assumption that Robinson will be signed to a long term contract and remain the Jaguars primary WR in the long term.

Jacksonville is one of the teams that I follow the least in the NFL however, so if people who do follow the team more closely than I do have a different view? I would like to hear about that.

Also I am thinking that passing attempts for Jacksonville drop to 550 attempts, possibly less than that as Fournette should cause them to run the ball more. Also the defense looks poised to improve from last season, where they did show some good signs of getting better.

Over the last 3 seasons Jacksonville has run an average of 1017 total plays and they have run the ball an average of 369 times per season. 

The sacks were down to 34 last season but the average has been 52 times over the last 3 seasons. Splitting this difference of the 3 year average and the 34 in 2016 would be 43 sacks.

This would leave 974 plays and I would guess they run the ball over 400 times in 2017. Running the ball more and playing better defense should lead to fewer total plays in 2017 and thus the 550 passing attempts being what I would expect.

In 2015-2016 Robinson had 302 targets of 1232 attempts is 24.5% of the targets.

If he maintains this market share of the offense at 550 attempts this would be 135 targets in 2017

Blake Bortles has yet to complete over 60% of his attempts, but if they do run the ball more effectively I think he may be able to pass this mark in 2017. If he doesn't I think the Jaguars are looking for a new QB after this season.

I would like to hear other thoughts about this as Jacksonville is a team that I am much less familiar with than most of the other NFL teams.

Edited by Biabreakable
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  • 2 weeks later...
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Contract-year WR Allen Robinson says he's had extension talks with the Jaguars.

With Brandon Linder locked up, the Jags can turn their attention to their No. 1 receiver. It's an awkward time for Robinson, who is coming off a down season, but he's reasoning he still has plenty of leverage as a 24-year-old wideout (in August) just two years removed from a 1,400-yard season. If a deal doesn't get done this summer, the franchise tag looms for 2018. In a disaster scenario, A-Rob plays out his rookie deal and has another disappointing campaign, leaving him in Alshon Jeffery-esque limbo.

Source: Ryan O'Halloran on Twitter

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

ARob problem was his QB, his QB was awful. He has a better QB than Bortles now and even if we remember he had a huge season with Bortles.

Henne will be better because he is more accurate. Accuracy matters as we saw with those Bortles duds. Robsinson will see all the targets, whoe lse they going to throw to, Hurns? Lee? Rivera? A RB? Sure, but the go to passing option is Robinson. 

Pryor had a breakout year with a bad QB who fed him, ARob can do it.  

He is a 70/1000/8 kinda guy this year,t hat works for me. 

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1 hour ago, need2know said:

So after they lose a bunch of games will they go back to bortles?  What a horrible qb situation

Nah, they are not going back to Bortles unless Henne gets hurt. That 5th year option will not let him see field to prevent from injury. He wont even dress, he will be inactive all season. 

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3 hours ago, Sarlakticacid said:

Fournette will make the QB more accurate?

the same guy throwing him the ball now, is the same guy who threw 14 tds to him on 150 or whatever targets, except now the defense will be kept more honest

in theory his targets will go down overall but they will mostly be better throws to theoretically a more open robinson

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  • Faust changed the title to WR Allen Robinson, CHI

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