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WR Allen Robinson, Free Agent (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
cstu
Footballguy
I'd love to believe he has Boldin potential, but can't get excited about spending a 1st round rookie pick on a slow receiver who primarily relies on YAC. He was able to make great plays on screens in college (i.e. Ohio State) but it'll be much more difficult to do that in the NFL.
EBF
Footballguy
He has been going pretty high in my drafts. Maybe in RB-heavy leagues he will slip, but in a typical PPR league it seems like his ADP will settle somewhere between 8-12. He certainly won't be around in the mid 2nd based on what I'm seeing.scothawk said:
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Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I have Allen Robinson and Davante Adams neck-and-neck as my 'true' top WRs. I think I like Davante a little more but mainly because of situation. I'm excited to see how Allen Robinson does with a new regime, a new QB and another rookie WR in Lee, who was drafted before A-Rob. If Bortles can be better than Henne by any margin, A-Rob should shine.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
And despite reservations, I did (1.12).
Ultimately came down to trusting that a receiver who doesn't turn 21 until August to develop...and the QB the Jags drafted #3 overall is actually good.
Don't feel great about but I think he's better than options like Benjamin and Moncrief.
Khy
Footballguy
1.12 is a nice landing spot. I've seen some leagues that were insane though. I've seen him go as high as 1.1 in one dynasty deaft. And he seems to be averaging around 1.7ish. I love Robinson but that's way to high for my blood. Late first early 2nd is more my style for him as he likely won't be a huge impact until next year or 2016. And there's still always the chance that the Jags sign Shorts to a long term contract which will make an even bigger contest between him and Lee. Although I think he is surely better than Lee.
saintfool
Dead sexy
i see him as a clear R2 pick but, depending on the league requirements, he could go a little earlier or later. i think he has a clearer path to relevance this season than either Benjamin or Moncrief but that's it. they may be all about the same in their second (moncrief) or even third years (benjamin).
EBF
Footballguy
I think he'll have a chance to be the #1 guy as a rookie. It's not a guarantee by any means, but the depth chart ahead of him isn't scary. Shorts is more ideal as a #2/#3 and the same could probably be said for Lee. The Jags WR coach is the same guy who started Boldin as a rookie in Arizona, so we know he'll give young guys a chance if they prove they deserve it. Monitor this situation closely in training camp/preseason to try to glean the hierarchy.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
Is this the guy that the Phenom index loved?
FUBAR
Footballguy
Don't see how anyone has a clearer path to relevance than Benjamin. Of course, the guy may not make it down the path, but nothing is blocking him except himself.
Missing your point on Benjamin and his third year.
duaneok66
Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
What is the phenom index?
Faust
MVP
Louche
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
I like Allen Robinson but he got drafted into a tough spot. You are going to have to wait a couple years to see any kind of return on your investment with him. If Bortles is a bust, which is def possible, then Robinson is in trouble. I wish GB would have drafted him instead of Adams but they had the chance and took Adams instead. Meh.
EBF
Footballguy
I think it's more about the player than the situation. Kendall Wright, Justin Blackmon, and Josh Gordon have been good scorers with bad QB situations. Some of the best rookie WRs in recent memory had crappy QB situations initially (AJ Green, Mike Williams, Michael Clayton).
A good QB would be a tiebreaker if I had two players ranked evenly and it's something that can boost a top 20 talent into the top 10 range in FF points (i.e. Jordy Nelson, Mike Wallace, and Eric Decker), but beyond that it wouldn't be a big factor for me. If you like Adams/Matthews/Latimer ahead of Robinson, it should be because you think they're better or equal in talent. If it turns out that Robinson is the better player, the situation won't matter much.
The flipside of going to the Jags is that they have no real WR1. There is no Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz, or Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb here. One way I've been able to get redraft steals with rookies before in the past is to look at guys who are immediately the most talented player in their position group for their NFL team. That was part of the driving force behind the FF success of guys like Boldin, Stacy, Allen, and AJ Green.
cstu
Footballguy
Lee was simply dominant in 2012, tough to ignore what he did that year.
Robinson is good but he has a ways to go to be complete receiver. However, when I look at what he did as a 20 year old last year plus with him being nearly 3 inches taller, 28 lbs. heavier and putting up similar combine numbers I can see him becoming the better fantasy receiver.
However, I don't have a strong enough feeling to lean either way and only favor Robinson in rookie drafts since he's usually going several picks later (although I've now seen him going ahead of Lee).
EBF
Footballguy
Jags have already had 2 days of rookie camps and while you can't necessarily glean much from it, it sounds like maybe Robinson has been the more impressive of the two. There has been some Twitter buzz about his performances from people who went to the practices. Lee has been praised for his smooth routes, but also noted for his drops. Seems like the drops issue is going to linger with him and maybe be a constant source of frustration.
I favor Robinson in FF because he's closer to the mold of guys who become really valuable in FF. Big man body with little man mobility. Lee is more like the Santonio Holmes and Kendall Wright types who have good value at their peak, but never reach elite FF WR status. If that's his ceiling then he's not worth a sky high rookie pick. He's a guy who has been steadily sliding down in my estimation since the combine. Think he will have his moments as an NFL player due to his separation skills and athletic ability. Don't really foresee him being a statistical force though.
I favor Robinson in FF because he's closer to the mold of guys who become really valuable in FF. Big man body with little man mobility. Lee is more like the Santonio Holmes and Kendall Wright types who have good value at their peak, but never reach elite FF WR status. If that's his ceiling then he's not worth a sky high rookie pick. He's a guy who has been steadily sliding down in my estimation since the combine. Think he will have his moments as an NFL player due to his separation skills and athletic ability. Don't really foresee him being a statistical force though.
Xue
Footballguy
He doesn't need to "replace" Shorts. There should be enough 3-WR sets for Robinson to get on the field. Shorts or Lee can move to the slot when that happens. I know Ace Sanders and Mike Brown were pretty good in the slot, but I would imagine the Jags want to get their 3 best WRs on the field. This should be the way to go.
Either way, this shows that Jacksonville believe Lee>Robinson. The Robinson supporters can paint this picture however they want "Robinson has good reports from OTAs, Lee has bad" "Lee got more coaching at the OTA look at this video" "Robinson will still get on the field in 3 WR sets"
Lee is starting, Robinson isn't. Lee at the Z should also give him some rushing attempts on reverses etc.
Lee is starting, Robinson isn't. Lee at the Z should also give him some rushing attempts on reverses etc.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Well they drafted him earlier so obviously they like him more right now. The question is who will they like in week 1 and in the future.
The Jags also spent a higher pick on Lee, so the idea that he is starting and Robinson isn't shouldn't be a shocker. I would disagree if the claim here is that the Jags think Lee has more long-term upside.
jurb26
Footballguy
The extra coaching for Lee is pretty understandable given they want him to take the most important role in the offense over. It was comical enough that it was posted to be some sort of red flag in the first place. It's even more so now, in light of this.
EBF
Footballguy
Yea, it's way too early to call this. Most of the Twitter folks had Robinson as the MVP of the rookie camp. Doesn't mean it will hold.
I've talked about it in the past, but it's actually pretty common to see teams use two picks on rookie WRs only to watch the lower pick outperform the other.
Look at these duos. It might be surprise now, but the guy on the left was picked higher in the same draft in every case:
Brian Quick/Chris Givens
Emmanuel Sanders/Antonio Brown
Arrelious Benn/Mike Williams
Juaquin Iglesias/Johnny Knox
Brian Robiskie/Mohamed Massaquoi
Bryant Johnson/Anquan Boldin
If a team takes one guy ahead of the other on draft day, that usually means they have him ranked higher....on that exact day in time.
That may or may not say anything about who will perform the best and ultimately achieve the most success. Certainly in the cases of Boldin and Mike Williams it became clear almost immediately that they were better than the other guy their team picked. Those guys generated a huge buzz in training camp/preseason before having big rookie years. It didn't matter at that point that Johnson and Benn were picked higher.
I see this Lee/Robinson battle being less lopsided. I think both guys have some real merit. It's no mystery what Lee is. Dynamic athlete with spotty hands and a small frame. He's undersized and he'll drop balls, but everyone knows he can play the game. I think he's more explosive than Robinson purely as an athlete. So I don't see him vanishing without a trace ala Quick/Benn/Iglesias. At the same time, Robinson is a bigger and perhaps more versatile target who more closely resembles a top outside #1 WR due to his size, jump ball skills, and possession game. Wouldn't be a huge shock to see him make a considerable impact as a rookie regardless of whatever a speculated depth chart in May says.
I've talked about it in the past, but it's actually pretty common to see teams use two picks on rookie WRs only to watch the lower pick outperform the other.
Look at these duos. It might be surprise now, but the guy on the left was picked higher in the same draft in every case:
Brian Quick/Chris Givens
Emmanuel Sanders/Antonio Brown
Arrelious Benn/Mike Williams
Juaquin Iglesias/Johnny Knox
Brian Robiskie/Mohamed Massaquoi
Bryant Johnson/Anquan Boldin
If a team takes one guy ahead of the other on draft day, that usually means they have him ranked higher....on that exact day in time.
That may or may not say anything about who will perform the best and ultimately achieve the most success. Certainly in the cases of Boldin and Mike Williams it became clear almost immediately that they were better than the other guy their team picked. Those guys generated a huge buzz in training camp/preseason before having big rookie years. It didn't matter at that point that Johnson and Benn were picked higher.
I see this Lee/Robinson battle being less lopsided. I think both guys have some real merit. It's no mystery what Lee is. Dynamic athlete with spotty hands and a small frame. He's undersized and he'll drop balls, but everyone knows he can play the game. I think he's more explosive than Robinson purely as an athlete. So I don't see him vanishing without a trace ala Quick/Benn/Iglesias. At the same time, Robinson is a bigger and perhaps more versatile target who more closely resembles a top outside #1 WR due to his size, jump ball skills, and possession game. Wouldn't be a huge shock to see him make a considerable impact as a rookie regardless of whatever a speculated depth chart in May says.
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identikit
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
Settle down Mr "Marion Grice is my #1 RB".
Greg Little was a starter at one time or another.
Being a starter doesn't automatically mean you're going to see more targets. Better chance, sure. Being a "starter" or being an X or Z is just a technicality.
I can easily put it this way:
"Lee is starting at Z. Z is the #2 receiver. X is the #1 receiver or the 'featured' receiver in most offenses (Andre Johnson/Pierre Garcon). Shorts was X and led the team in targets. Robinson isn't starting...yet. When Robinson takes over for Shorts at X, he can very likely be the #1 receiver and lead the team in targets. Lee doesn't have to compete with Robinson to get on the field. Lee will have to compete for targets with Robinson once he gets on the field on a regular basis (if and when Shorts isn't re-signed)."
Yes last offseason Marion Grice was my #1 RB and I was wrong. Which is why this offseason he wasn't my #1 RB or close to it. I think that's the biggest issue in the Shark Pool/society. People arguing until the end that they're right and yearning for some acknowledgement/entitlement. I'm not perfect and IT'S OKAY. Only one guy have ever been and will be perfect This guy. I probably have had times when I was beating my chest as well. But i've learned and honestly it turns a lot of people away from you acting that way. The Shark Pool should be a community of learning and discussing; not a community of chest beating, never caving in, or realizing the truth. That's how we get endless threads on players and don't provide any factual information.
As for this news, it's a positive for Lee and a negative for Robinson at a minimum for 2014.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I have Lee and Robinson dead even right now to be honest. These first couple of tweets from camp don't mean a ton really. Coin flip for me.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Some of you people will absolutely tie yourselves in knots to rationalize your position and not be wrong.
This seems to fit the principle of Ockham's Razor: right now JAX thinks Lee is the better WR.
A year from now, who knows. But right now Jacksonville believes Lee is more capable than Robinson. As a Robinson owner who does not own Lee, I'm comfortable with that. I expect that from a guy who drops into the 2nd round of the FF draft. Hopefully both guys have long successful careers ahead.
This seems to fit the principle of Ockham's Razor: right now JAX thinks Lee is the better WR.
A year from now, who knows. But right now Jacksonville believes Lee is more capable than Robinson. As a Robinson owner who does not own Lee, I'm comfortable with that. I expect that from a guy who drops into the 2nd round of the FF draft. Hopefully both guys have long successful careers ahead.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think there are 100+ targets for both WR as starters and both are valuable.
2012 586 total
Cecil Shorts 55 106 979
Justin Blackmon 64 133 865
Marcedes Lewis 52 78 540
Laurent Robinson 24 43 252
Jordan Shipley 23 39 244
Kevin Elliott 10 31 108
2013 592 total
Cecil Shorts 66 125 777
Ace Sanders 51 85 484
Mike Brown 32 57 446
Justin Blackmon 29 48 415
Marcedes Lewis 25 47 359
Clay Harbor 24 35 292
Kerry Taylor 19 31 189
Blackmon+Brown+Taylor = 140 targets.
eta- I guess I could see passing attempts reduced if they increase their rushing attempts with Gerhart/Johnson and improved defense. Which does seem to be the goal of the HC especially if they end up starting Bortles at some point, and just as overall coaching philosophy.
2013 1020plays 592pa 378ra
2012 994plays 586pa 358
So if they manage to run the ball in the 400-450 range passing attempts could drop some to the 500-550 range, which would reduce all WR opportunity somewhat.
2012 586 total
Cecil Shorts 55 106 979
Justin Blackmon 64 133 865
Marcedes Lewis 52 78 540
Laurent Robinson 24 43 252
Jordan Shipley 23 39 244
Kevin Elliott 10 31 108
2013 592 total
Cecil Shorts 66 125 777
Ace Sanders 51 85 484
Mike Brown 32 57 446
Justin Blackmon 29 48 415
Marcedes Lewis 25 47 359
Clay Harbor 24 35 292
Kerry Taylor 19 31 189
Blackmon+Brown+Taylor = 140 targets.
eta- I guess I could see passing attempts reduced if they increase their rushing attempts with Gerhart/Johnson and improved defense. Which does seem to be the goal of the HC especially if they end up starting Bortles at some point, and just as overall coaching philosophy.
2013 1020plays 592pa 378ra
2012 994plays 586pa 358
So if they manage to run the ball in the 400-450 range passing attempts could drop some to the 500-550 range, which would reduce all WR opportunity somewhat.
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Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
How many teams only run 2WR sets the majority of the time anymore? Seems like a non-issue to me. Why can't the answer be AND instead of OR here. Both Lee AND Robinson can be nice long term options as the future of Jacksonville.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
2014 from a football perspective is still months away, and it lasts for several months. I think it's very foolish to conclude JAX will continue to like Lee more than Robinson for the entirety of the season based on what position they played during a few days at camp. Situation's still very much up in the air at the moment as far as I'm concerned.
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I agree the season is months away and anything could happen. Lee could tear up his knee from a motorcycle(jay Williams, Winslow Jr) or Robinson could murder someone ( Hernandez). But right now Lee has a leg up on Robinson.
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cstu
Footballguy
It's not about liking one or the other - Lee is best suited at flanker and Robinson at split end (Shorts' position).
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
I think Robinson's skill set resembles Blackmon's a lot more than Lee's does, and Blackmon did quite well at the flanker position. In the end I think Jacksonville will play their best WR opposite to Shorts simply to get that player the most snaps; if they determine that's Lee then they'll play Lee, if they determine it's Robinson then they'll play Robinson.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Okay, now that's just crazy talk. I think you need to PM Joe and tell him you've appointed yourself for a one week timeout. Sheesh, the nerve of some people.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
False Start
Footballguy
Those can linger. Has he had a history of injuries to his hamstring or is this his first?
