beef
Footballguy
pretty sure i remember seeing some stats on tannehill's deep pass accuracy being below average as well.
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WR Jarvis Landry, Saints (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BeTheMatch
- Start date
pretty sure i remember seeing some stats on tannehill's deep pass accuracy being below average as well.
He does still play in the same offense with the same quarterback though, so it is something I'd still worry about. I don't think he's a quote "bad" player, and he was clearly valuable to what Miami did last season, I just don't know if that correlates to fantasy that great. I chose 10 ypc simply because he averaged 9 and I figured a little wiggle room would be fair. If I bumped it to less than 12 ypc and > 50 rec, this is the list:
Brandin Cooks
Landry
Ace Sanders
Kendall Wright
Greg Little
Jordan Shipley
Austin Collie
Davone Bess
Eddie Royal
Peter Warrick
Troy Edwards
Jerome Pathon
Wayne Chrebet
Willie Jackson
Pretty intrigued to see Cooks here as well, but for the most part this list is junk, and Cooks is still unproven (though his coach and QB situation is probably preferable to Landry's)
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I think it is something worth exploring further amicsta.
One thing to consider about how you are doing your samples, is that you are only including rookie seasons. But the comparison we are making for fantasy includes all WR.
One thing to consider about how you are doing your samples, is that you are only including rookie seasons. But the comparison we are making for fantasy includes all WR.
Very true, this is something I will definitely delve deeper into when I have some time. I do think though that at this point giving a 1st for him is a little silly. But I think you make fair points for sure.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
So just for fun I gathered the rookie WR seasons from 1989 to 2014 for WR that had 42 or more receptions. This is half the number of receptions that Landry had as a rookie as the baseline.
Here is that list of players sorted by receptions:
Anquan Boldin wr 2003 23 1 16 101 1377 13.63 8 188.7
Odell Beckham Jr 2014 22 1 12 91 1305 14.34 12 206
Eddie Royal wr 2008 22 1 15 91 980 10.77 5 138.9
Terry Glenn wr 1996 22 1 15 90 1132 12.58 6 153.4
Jarvis Landry wr 2014 22 1 16 84 758 9.02 5 105.4
Michael Clayton wr 2004 22 1 16 80 1193 14.91 7 164.3
Kelvin Benjamin wr 2014 23 1 16 73 1008 13.81 9 154.8
Keenan Allen wr 2013 21 1 15 71 1046 14.73 8 152.6
Dwayne Bowe wr 2007 23 1 16 70 995 14.21 5 129.5
Marques Colston wr 2006 23 1 14 70 1038 14.83 8 151.8
Randy Moss wr 1998 21 1 16 69 1313 19.03 17 233.7
Mike Evans wr 2014 21 1 15 68 1051 15.46 12 177.1
Jordan Matthews wr 2014 22 1 16 67 872 13.01 8 135.2
Joey Galloway wr 1995 24 1 16 67 1039 15.51 7 167.3
Andre Johnson wr 2003 22 1 16 66 976 14.79 4 120.6
Kevin Johnson wr 1999 24 1 16 66 986 14.94 8 146
Wayne Chrebet wr 1995 22 1 16 66 726 11 4 96.7
Sammy Watkins wr 2014 21 1 16 65 982 15.11 6 135
A.J. Green wr 2011 23 1 15 65 1057 16.26 7 153
Mike Williams wr 2010 23 1 16 65 964 14.83 11 162.4
Justin Blackmon wr 2012 22 1 16 64 865 13.52 5 118.8
Kendall Wright wr 2012 23 1 15 64 626 9.78 4 87
Marvin Harrison wr 1996 24 1 16 64 836 13.06 8 133.1
Keyshawn Johnson 1996 24 1 14 63 844 13.4 8 132.4
DeSean Jackson wr 2008 22 1 16 62 912 14.71 2 117.8
Greg Little wr 2011 22 1 16 61 709 11.62 2 84.4
Troy Edwards wr 1999 22 1 16 61 714 11.7 5 101.4
Austin Collie wr 2009 24 1 16 60 676 11.27 7 109.7
Percy Harvin wr 2009 21 1 15 60 790 13.17 6 128.5
Larry Fitzgerald 2004 21 1 16 58 780 13.45 8 127.4
Shawn Collins wr 1989 22 1 16 58 862 14.86 3 104.2
Ricky Proehl wr 1990 22 1 16 56 802 14.32 4 104.2
Jeremy Maclin wr 2009 21 1 15 55 762 13.85 4 99.5
Lawrence Dawsey wr 1991 24 1 16 55 818 14.87 3 106.7
Julio Jones wr 2011 22 1 13 54 959 17.76 8 149.5
Davone Bess wr 2008 23 1 16 54 554 10.26 1 62.7
Roy Williams wr 2004 23 1 14 54 817 15.13 8 129.8
Eddie Kennison wr 1996 23 1 15 54 924 17.11 9 146.4
Eric Metcalf wr 1989 21 1 16 54 397 7.35 4 163
Brandin Cooks wr 2014 21 1 10 53 550 10.38 3 86.3
Donnie Avery wr 2008 24 1 15 53 674 12.72 3 98.3
Darrell Jackson wr 2000 22 1 16 53 713 13.45 6 107.2
DeAndre Hopkins wr 2013 21 1 16 52 802 15.42 2 92.2
Jordan Shipley wr 2010 25 1 15 52 600 11.54 3 78
Torry Holt wr 1999 23 1 16 52 788 15.15 6 117.3
Frank Sanders wr 1995 22 1 16 52 883 16.98 2 100.4
Andre Rison wr 1989 22 1 16 52 820 15.77 4 107.8
Allen Hurns wr 2014 23 1 16 51 677 13.27 6 103.7
Ace Sanders wr 2013 22 1 15 51 484 9.49 1 59.9
Doug Baldwin wr 2011 23 1 16 51 788 15.45 4 102.6
Peter Warrick wr 2000 23 1 16 51 592 11.61 4 110
Josh Gordon wr 2012 21 1 16 50 805 16.1 5 110.5
T.Y. Hilton wr 2012 23 1 15 50 861 17.22 7 131
Torrey Smith wr 2011 22 1 16 50 841 16.82 7 130
Jerome Pathon wr 1998 23 1 16 50 511 10.22 1 56.9
Mike Pritchard wr 1991 22 1 16 50 624 12.48 2 74.4
Marlon Brown wr 2013 22 1 14 49 524 10.69 7 94.2
Santonio Holmes wr 2006 22 1 16 49 824 16.82 2 95.7
HartLee Dykes wr 1989 23 1 16 49 795 16.22 5 109.5
John Brown wr 2014 24 1 16 48 696 14.5 5 99
Allen Robinson wr 2014 21 1 10 48 548 11.42 2 66.8
Titus Young wr 2011 22 1 16 48 607 12.65 6 98.2
Michael Crabtree 2009 22 1 12 48 625 13.02 2 74.5
Mike Thomas wr 2009 22 1 14 48 453 9.44 1 59.8
Calvin Johnson wr 2007 22 1 15 48 756 15.75 4 110.8
Lee Evans wr 2004 23 1 16 48 843 17.56 9 146.8
Chris Chambers wr 2001 23 1 16 48 883 18.4 7 129.2
Sylvester Morris 2000 23 1 15 48 678 14.13 3 85.8
Oronde Gadsden wr 1998 27 1 16 48 713 14.85 7 113.3
Derrick Alexander 1994 23 1 14 48 828 17.25 2 98.6
Hakeem Nicks wr 2009 21 1 14 47 790 16.81 6 115.8
James Jones wr 2007 23 1 16 47 676 14.38 2 79.6
Keary Colbert wr 2004 22 1 15 47 754 16.04 5 105.4
Dane Looker wr 2003 27 1 16 47 495 10.53 3 68.1
Antwaan Randle El 2002 23 1 16 47 489 10.4 2 76.6
Rod Gardner wr 2001 24 1 16 46 741 16.11 4 99.7
Bert Emanuel wr 1994 24 1 16 46 649 14.11 4 89.3
Darnay Scott wr 1994 22 1 16 46 866 18.83 5 127.2
Cordarrelle Patterson 2013 22 1 16 45 469 10.42 4 104.7
Michael Floyd wr 2012 23 1 16 45 562 12.49 2 68.2
Dez Bryant wr 2010 22 1 12 45 561 12.47 6 92.1
Johnny Knox wr 2009 23 1 15 45 527 11.71 5 82.7
Greg Jennings wr 2006 23 1 14 45 632 14.04 3 81.2
Vincent Brisby wr 1993 22 1 16 45 626 13.91 2 74.6
Terrance Williams 2013 24 1 16 44 736 16.73 5 104
Mark Clayton wr 2005 23 1 14 44 471 10.7 2 68.4
Antonio Bryant wr 2002 21 1 16 44 733 16.66 6 113.3
Darrin Chiaverini 1999 22 1 16 44 487 11.07 4 72.7
Rae Carruth wr 1997 23 1 15 44 545 12.39 4 80.8
Rob Moore wr 1990 22 1 15 44 692 15.73 6 104.8
Reggie Brown wr 2005 24 1 16 43 571 13.28 4 81.6
Deion Branch wr 2002 23 1 13 43 489 11.37 2 60.9
Jeremy McDaniel wr 2000 24 1 16 43 697 16.21 2 81.7
Will Moore wr 1995 25 1 14 43 502 11.67 1 56.2
Randall Hill wr 1991 22 1 16 43 495 11.51 1 55.5
Chris Givens wr 2012 23 1 15 42 698 16.62 3 89
Kenny Britt wr 2009 21 1 16 42 701 16.69 3 88.1
Donte Stallworth 2002 22 1 13 42 594 14.14 8 107.6
Terrence Wilkins 1999 24 1 16 42 565 13.45 4 80.7
I think it is remarkable that Jarvis Landry is 5th overall on this list.
I put the WR from 2004 on in bold. 2004 is when the NFL began enforcement of the no chuck rule, which slowly but surely has led to the NFL passing the ball more frequently than teams used to prior to that.
There were 56 out of the 99 WR that occurred since 2004 56.6% even though the last 10 seasons are only 40% of the 25 seasons in the sample. I think this shows that the current NFL is more friendly in terms of opportunity for rookie WR than it has been in the past.
In standrrd scoring leagues Landry only finished as WR 42
In PPR scoring leagues Landry finished as WR 30
In terms of rookie seasons Landry finished as WR 47 from 1989-2014 in standard leagues.
In terms of rookie seasons Landry finished as WR 24 from 1989-2014 in PPR leagues.
Here are those players:
Randy Moss wr 1998 21 1 16 69 1313 19.03 17 233.7 302.7
Odell Beckham Jr 2014 22 1 12 91 1305 14.34 12 206 297
Anquan Boldin wr 2003 23 1 16 101 1377 13.63 8 188.7 289.7
Mike Evans wr 2014 21 1 15 68 1051 15.46 12 177.1 245.1
Michael Clayton wr 2004 22 1 16 80 1193 14.91 7 164.3 244.3
Terry Glenn wr 1996 22 1 15 90 1132 12.58 6 153.4 243.4
Joey Galloway wr 1995 24 1 16 67 1039 15.51 7 167.3 234.3
Eddie Royal wr 2008 22 1 15 91 980 10.77 5 138.9 229.9
Kelvin Benjamin wr 2014 23 1 16 73 1008 13.81 9 154.8 227.8
Mike Williams wr 2010 23 1 16 65 964 14.83 11 162.4 227.4
Keenan Allen wr 2013 21 1 15 71 1046 14.73 8 152.6 223.6
Marques Colston wr 2006 23 1 14 70 1038 14.83 8 151.8 221.8
A.J. Green wr 2011 23 1 15 65 1057 16.26 7 153 218
Eric Metcalf wr 1989 21 1 16 54 397 7.35 4 163 217
Kevin Johnson wr 1999 24 1 16 66 986 14.94 8 146 212
Julio Jones wr 2011 22 1 13 54 959 17.76 8 149.5 203.5
Jordan Matthews wr 2014 22 1 16 67 872 13.01 8 135.2 202.2
Eddie Kennison wr 1996 23 1 15 54 924 17.11 9 146.4 200.4
Sammy Watkins wr 2014 21 1 16 65 982 15.11 6 135 200
Dwayne Bowe wr 2007 23 1 16 70 995 14.21 5 129.5 199.5
Marvin Harrison wr 1996 24 1 16 64 836 13.06 8 133.1 197.1
Keyshawn Johnson 1996 24 1 14 63 844 13.4 8 132.4 195.4
Lee Evans wr 2004 23 1 16 48 843 17.56 9 146.8 194.8
Jarvis Landry wr 2014 22 1 16 84 758 9.02 5 105.4 189.4
I value Landry as a WR2 in PPR leagues but he is only a WR3 in standard leagues where the points for receptions don't matter.
So setting his price in terms of rookie picks at 1.06 makes a bit of sense to me. I only have 3 2015 rookie WR that I am pretty sure will become WR1 within the next three seasons of their careers. So I would expect them to surpass Landry as a WR2. There are some more 2015 rookies who might perform better than a WR2 such as DGB, Strong, Devin Smith, Perriman, Dorsett, Coates, Lockett, Funchess. I would need to see strong confirmation from the NFL draft (taking these WR in round one) and a good situation to really consider them over Landry right now.
I do not expect the Dolphins to draft a WR in the first three rounds of the draft. I think Landry is the Dolphins WR1 for 2015
Here are the snap counts for the Dolphins under Bill Lazor:
I extracted the skill position players and I do believe Dion Sims is a TE not a WR
26-L.Miller MIA RB 643 642 58.6% 0 0.0% 1 0.2%
30-Dan.Thomas MIA RB 231 209 19.1% 0 0.0% 22 4.9%
34-Da.Williams MIA RB 444 158 14.4% 0 0.0% 286 63.4%
28-K.Moreno MIA RB 68 68 6.2% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
43-O.Darkwa MIA RB 66 13 1.2% 0 0.0% 53 11.8%
33-L.James MIA RB 11 9 0.8% 0 0.0% 2 0.4%
42-C.Clay MIA TE 745 745 68.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
80-D.Sims MIA TE 536 507 46.3% 0 0.0% 29 6.4%
85-G.Robinson MIA TE 18 9 0.8% 0 0.0% 9 2.0%
89-G.Hoskins MIA TE 116 82 7.5% 0 0.0% 34 7.5%
11-M.Wallace MIA WR 819 819 74.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
82-B.Hartline MIA WR 819 813 74.2% 0 0.0% 6 1.3%
14-J.Landry MIA WR 849 683 62.4% 0 0.0% 166 36.8%
10-B.Gibson MIA WR 505 503 45.9% 0 0.0% 2 0.4%
18-R.Matthews MIA WR 397 210 19.2% 0 0.0% 187 41.5%
15-Da.Williams MIA WR 1 1 0.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
83-M.Hazel MIA WR 0 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Here is that list of players sorted by receptions:
Anquan Boldin wr 2003 23 1 16 101 1377 13.63 8 188.7
Odell Beckham Jr 2014 22 1 12 91 1305 14.34 12 206
Eddie Royal wr 2008 22 1 15 91 980 10.77 5 138.9
Terry Glenn wr 1996 22 1 15 90 1132 12.58 6 153.4
Jarvis Landry wr 2014 22 1 16 84 758 9.02 5 105.4
Michael Clayton wr 2004 22 1 16 80 1193 14.91 7 164.3
Kelvin Benjamin wr 2014 23 1 16 73 1008 13.81 9 154.8
Keenan Allen wr 2013 21 1 15 71 1046 14.73 8 152.6
Dwayne Bowe wr 2007 23 1 16 70 995 14.21 5 129.5
Marques Colston wr 2006 23 1 14 70 1038 14.83 8 151.8
Randy Moss wr 1998 21 1 16 69 1313 19.03 17 233.7
Mike Evans wr 2014 21 1 15 68 1051 15.46 12 177.1
Jordan Matthews wr 2014 22 1 16 67 872 13.01 8 135.2
Joey Galloway wr 1995 24 1 16 67 1039 15.51 7 167.3
Andre Johnson wr 2003 22 1 16 66 976 14.79 4 120.6
Kevin Johnson wr 1999 24 1 16 66 986 14.94 8 146
Wayne Chrebet wr 1995 22 1 16 66 726 11 4 96.7
Sammy Watkins wr 2014 21 1 16 65 982 15.11 6 135
A.J. Green wr 2011 23 1 15 65 1057 16.26 7 153
Mike Williams wr 2010 23 1 16 65 964 14.83 11 162.4
Justin Blackmon wr 2012 22 1 16 64 865 13.52 5 118.8
Kendall Wright wr 2012 23 1 15 64 626 9.78 4 87
Marvin Harrison wr 1996 24 1 16 64 836 13.06 8 133.1
Keyshawn Johnson 1996 24 1 14 63 844 13.4 8 132.4
DeSean Jackson wr 2008 22 1 16 62 912 14.71 2 117.8
Greg Little wr 2011 22 1 16 61 709 11.62 2 84.4
Troy Edwards wr 1999 22 1 16 61 714 11.7 5 101.4
Austin Collie wr 2009 24 1 16 60 676 11.27 7 109.7
Percy Harvin wr 2009 21 1 15 60 790 13.17 6 128.5
Larry Fitzgerald 2004 21 1 16 58 780 13.45 8 127.4
Shawn Collins wr 1989 22 1 16 58 862 14.86 3 104.2
Ricky Proehl wr 1990 22 1 16 56 802 14.32 4 104.2
Jeremy Maclin wr 2009 21 1 15 55 762 13.85 4 99.5
Lawrence Dawsey wr 1991 24 1 16 55 818 14.87 3 106.7
Julio Jones wr 2011 22 1 13 54 959 17.76 8 149.5
Davone Bess wr 2008 23 1 16 54 554 10.26 1 62.7
Roy Williams wr 2004 23 1 14 54 817 15.13 8 129.8
Eddie Kennison wr 1996 23 1 15 54 924 17.11 9 146.4
Eric Metcalf wr 1989 21 1 16 54 397 7.35 4 163
Brandin Cooks wr 2014 21 1 10 53 550 10.38 3 86.3
Donnie Avery wr 2008 24 1 15 53 674 12.72 3 98.3
Darrell Jackson wr 2000 22 1 16 53 713 13.45 6 107.2
DeAndre Hopkins wr 2013 21 1 16 52 802 15.42 2 92.2
Jordan Shipley wr 2010 25 1 15 52 600 11.54 3 78
Torry Holt wr 1999 23 1 16 52 788 15.15 6 117.3
Frank Sanders wr 1995 22 1 16 52 883 16.98 2 100.4
Andre Rison wr 1989 22 1 16 52 820 15.77 4 107.8
Allen Hurns wr 2014 23 1 16 51 677 13.27 6 103.7
Ace Sanders wr 2013 22 1 15 51 484 9.49 1 59.9
Doug Baldwin wr 2011 23 1 16 51 788 15.45 4 102.6
Peter Warrick wr 2000 23 1 16 51 592 11.61 4 110
Josh Gordon wr 2012 21 1 16 50 805 16.1 5 110.5
T.Y. Hilton wr 2012 23 1 15 50 861 17.22 7 131
Torrey Smith wr 2011 22 1 16 50 841 16.82 7 130
Jerome Pathon wr 1998 23 1 16 50 511 10.22 1 56.9
Mike Pritchard wr 1991 22 1 16 50 624 12.48 2 74.4
Marlon Brown wr 2013 22 1 14 49 524 10.69 7 94.2
Santonio Holmes wr 2006 22 1 16 49 824 16.82 2 95.7
HartLee Dykes wr 1989 23 1 16 49 795 16.22 5 109.5
John Brown wr 2014 24 1 16 48 696 14.5 5 99
Allen Robinson wr 2014 21 1 10 48 548 11.42 2 66.8
Titus Young wr 2011 22 1 16 48 607 12.65 6 98.2
Michael Crabtree 2009 22 1 12 48 625 13.02 2 74.5
Mike Thomas wr 2009 22 1 14 48 453 9.44 1 59.8
Calvin Johnson wr 2007 22 1 15 48 756 15.75 4 110.8
Lee Evans wr 2004 23 1 16 48 843 17.56 9 146.8
Chris Chambers wr 2001 23 1 16 48 883 18.4 7 129.2
Sylvester Morris 2000 23 1 15 48 678 14.13 3 85.8
Oronde Gadsden wr 1998 27 1 16 48 713 14.85 7 113.3
Derrick Alexander 1994 23 1 14 48 828 17.25 2 98.6
Hakeem Nicks wr 2009 21 1 14 47 790 16.81 6 115.8
James Jones wr 2007 23 1 16 47 676 14.38 2 79.6
Keary Colbert wr 2004 22 1 15 47 754 16.04 5 105.4
Dane Looker wr 2003 27 1 16 47 495 10.53 3 68.1
Antwaan Randle El 2002 23 1 16 47 489 10.4 2 76.6
Rod Gardner wr 2001 24 1 16 46 741 16.11 4 99.7
Bert Emanuel wr 1994 24 1 16 46 649 14.11 4 89.3
Darnay Scott wr 1994 22 1 16 46 866 18.83 5 127.2
Cordarrelle Patterson 2013 22 1 16 45 469 10.42 4 104.7
Michael Floyd wr 2012 23 1 16 45 562 12.49 2 68.2
Dez Bryant wr 2010 22 1 12 45 561 12.47 6 92.1
Johnny Knox wr 2009 23 1 15 45 527 11.71 5 82.7
Greg Jennings wr 2006 23 1 14 45 632 14.04 3 81.2
Vincent Brisby wr 1993 22 1 16 45 626 13.91 2 74.6
Terrance Williams 2013 24 1 16 44 736 16.73 5 104
Mark Clayton wr 2005 23 1 14 44 471 10.7 2 68.4
Antonio Bryant wr 2002 21 1 16 44 733 16.66 6 113.3
Darrin Chiaverini 1999 22 1 16 44 487 11.07 4 72.7
Rae Carruth wr 1997 23 1 15 44 545 12.39 4 80.8
Rob Moore wr 1990 22 1 15 44 692 15.73 6 104.8
Reggie Brown wr 2005 24 1 16 43 571 13.28 4 81.6
Deion Branch wr 2002 23 1 13 43 489 11.37 2 60.9
Jeremy McDaniel wr 2000 24 1 16 43 697 16.21 2 81.7
Will Moore wr 1995 25 1 14 43 502 11.67 1 56.2
Randall Hill wr 1991 22 1 16 43 495 11.51 1 55.5
Chris Givens wr 2012 23 1 15 42 698 16.62 3 89
Kenny Britt wr 2009 21 1 16 42 701 16.69 3 88.1
Donte Stallworth 2002 22 1 13 42 594 14.14 8 107.6
Terrence Wilkins 1999 24 1 16 42 565 13.45 4 80.7
I think it is remarkable that Jarvis Landry is 5th overall on this list.
I put the WR from 2004 on in bold. 2004 is when the NFL began enforcement of the no chuck rule, which slowly but surely has led to the NFL passing the ball more frequently than teams used to prior to that.
There were 56 out of the 99 WR that occurred since 2004 56.6% even though the last 10 seasons are only 40% of the 25 seasons in the sample. I think this shows that the current NFL is more friendly in terms of opportunity for rookie WR than it has been in the past.
In standrrd scoring leagues Landry only finished as WR 42
In PPR scoring leagues Landry finished as WR 30
In terms of rookie seasons Landry finished as WR 47 from 1989-2014 in standard leagues.
In terms of rookie seasons Landry finished as WR 24 from 1989-2014 in PPR leagues.
Here are those players:
Randy Moss wr 1998 21 1 16 69 1313 19.03 17 233.7 302.7
Odell Beckham Jr 2014 22 1 12 91 1305 14.34 12 206 297
Anquan Boldin wr 2003 23 1 16 101 1377 13.63 8 188.7 289.7
Mike Evans wr 2014 21 1 15 68 1051 15.46 12 177.1 245.1
Michael Clayton wr 2004 22 1 16 80 1193 14.91 7 164.3 244.3
Terry Glenn wr 1996 22 1 15 90 1132 12.58 6 153.4 243.4
Joey Galloway wr 1995 24 1 16 67 1039 15.51 7 167.3 234.3
Eddie Royal wr 2008 22 1 15 91 980 10.77 5 138.9 229.9
Kelvin Benjamin wr 2014 23 1 16 73 1008 13.81 9 154.8 227.8
Mike Williams wr 2010 23 1 16 65 964 14.83 11 162.4 227.4
Keenan Allen wr 2013 21 1 15 71 1046 14.73 8 152.6 223.6
Marques Colston wr 2006 23 1 14 70 1038 14.83 8 151.8 221.8
A.J. Green wr 2011 23 1 15 65 1057 16.26 7 153 218
Eric Metcalf wr 1989 21 1 16 54 397 7.35 4 163 217
Kevin Johnson wr 1999 24 1 16 66 986 14.94 8 146 212
Julio Jones wr 2011 22 1 13 54 959 17.76 8 149.5 203.5
Jordan Matthews wr 2014 22 1 16 67 872 13.01 8 135.2 202.2
Eddie Kennison wr 1996 23 1 15 54 924 17.11 9 146.4 200.4
Sammy Watkins wr 2014 21 1 16 65 982 15.11 6 135 200
Dwayne Bowe wr 2007 23 1 16 70 995 14.21 5 129.5 199.5
Marvin Harrison wr 1996 24 1 16 64 836 13.06 8 133.1 197.1
Keyshawn Johnson 1996 24 1 14 63 844 13.4 8 132.4 195.4
Lee Evans wr 2004 23 1 16 48 843 17.56 9 146.8 194.8
Jarvis Landry wr 2014 22 1 16 84 758 9.02 5 105.4 189.4
I value Landry as a WR2 in PPR leagues but he is only a WR3 in standard leagues where the points for receptions don't matter.
So setting his price in terms of rookie picks at 1.06 makes a bit of sense to me. I only have 3 2015 rookie WR that I am pretty sure will become WR1 within the next three seasons of their careers. So I would expect them to surpass Landry as a WR2. There are some more 2015 rookies who might perform better than a WR2 such as DGB, Strong, Devin Smith, Perriman, Dorsett, Coates, Lockett, Funchess. I would need to see strong confirmation from the NFL draft (taking these WR in round one) and a good situation to really consider them over Landry right now.
I do not expect the Dolphins to draft a WR in the first three rounds of the draft. I think Landry is the Dolphins WR1 for 2015
Here are the snap counts for the Dolphins under Bill Lazor:
I extracted the skill position players and I do believe Dion Sims is a TE not a WR
26-L.Miller MIA RB 643 642 58.6% 0 0.0% 1 0.2%
30-Dan.Thomas MIA RB 231 209 19.1% 0 0.0% 22 4.9%
34-Da.Williams MIA RB 444 158 14.4% 0 0.0% 286 63.4%
28-K.Moreno MIA RB 68 68 6.2% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
43-O.Darkwa MIA RB 66 13 1.2% 0 0.0% 53 11.8%
33-L.James MIA RB 11 9 0.8% 0 0.0% 2 0.4%
42-C.Clay MIA TE 745 745 68.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
80-D.Sims MIA TE 536 507 46.3% 0 0.0% 29 6.4%
85-G.Robinson MIA TE 18 9 0.8% 0 0.0% 9 2.0%
89-G.Hoskins MIA TE 116 82 7.5% 0 0.0% 34 7.5%
11-M.Wallace MIA WR 819 819 74.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
82-B.Hartline MIA WR 819 813 74.2% 0 0.0% 6 1.3%
14-J.Landry MIA WR 849 683 62.4% 0 0.0% 166 36.8%
10-B.Gibson MIA WR 505 503 45.9% 0 0.0% 2 0.4%
18-R.Matthews MIA WR 397 210 19.2% 0 0.0% 187 41.5%
15-Da.Williams MIA WR 1 1 0.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
83-M.Hazel MIA WR 0 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
Last edited by a moderator:
The data mining is nice, but I think youre making quite a few assumptions:
1) assuming that Miami doesnt take a WR in not just the 1st but 1st THREE rounds is a huge stretch imo. As much as something can "shock" me in the NFL, I would be shocked to see thjs happen.
2) valuing landry as a wr2 (something he is not) is assuming growth that may never happen.
The high catch totals are nice, but the approx 75% catch rate and 9 ypc number means he was being used more like a rb in the passing game than a wr. To that end, i would see big growth quite difficult. Furthermore, landry being the "wr1" means nothing to me if his role doesnt change. Even if MIA didnt draft a WR, Stills is the clear replacement for Mike Wallace as the deep threat, and Cameron the replacement for Clay, leaving Landry in the exact same role, check down guy and chain mover. I mean look at that list you compliled. Landrys YPC is BY FAR the worst on the list. Hes at least a yard less than everyone not named Kendall Wright. In fact, here is everyone you listed sub 11 ypc:
Royal
Landry
Chrebet
Clayton
Cordarrelle
Randle El
Looker
Mike thomas
Marlon Brown
Pathon
Ace sanders
Cooks
Metcalf
Bess
Wright
How many of these guys would you have actuallly wanted in fantasy? Based on his cohort, the odds he ever becomes anything more than what he is is quite low. Its HARD to average that little yards per catch when you get the ball so much. The fact that he cant break enough big plays confirms what we saw in him as a prospect: lack of athleticism and not a gamebreaker. Considering he is without an elite QB and not in an elite offense, I would happily take at least the top 6 WR in this class ahead of him. He's not worth a 1st round dynasty pick. Dude has as good a chance of never having a top 30 season again as he does growing from there.
1) assuming that Miami doesnt take a WR in not just the 1st but 1st THREE rounds is a huge stretch imo. As much as something can "shock" me in the NFL, I would be shocked to see thjs happen.
2) valuing landry as a wr2 (something he is not) is assuming growth that may never happen.
The high catch totals are nice, but the approx 75% catch rate and 9 ypc number means he was being used more like a rb in the passing game than a wr. To that end, i would see big growth quite difficult. Furthermore, landry being the "wr1" means nothing to me if his role doesnt change. Even if MIA didnt draft a WR, Stills is the clear replacement for Mike Wallace as the deep threat, and Cameron the replacement for Clay, leaving Landry in the exact same role, check down guy and chain mover. I mean look at that list you compliled. Landrys YPC is BY FAR the worst on the list. Hes at least a yard less than everyone not named Kendall Wright. In fact, here is everyone you listed sub 11 ypc:
Royal
Landry
Chrebet
Clayton
Cordarrelle
Randle El
Looker
Mike thomas
Marlon Brown
Pathon
Ace sanders
Cooks
Metcalf
Bess
Wright
How many of these guys would you have actuallly wanted in fantasy? Based on his cohort, the odds he ever becomes anything more than what he is is quite low. Its HARD to average that little yards per catch when you get the ball so much. The fact that he cant break enough big plays confirms what we saw in him as a prospect: lack of athleticism and not a gamebreaker. Considering he is without an elite QB and not in an elite offense, I would happily take at least the top 6 WR in this class ahead of him. He's not worth a 1st round dynasty pick. Dude has as good a chance of never having a top 30 season again as he does growing from there.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
You may be right, but I tend to agree with some of the other posters who think that he is being devalued due to a slow 40 time. Pretty confident that if Marqise Lee, Cody Latimer, or Brandin Cooks had put up the exact same stat lines last year (including YPC), they would be valued as the equivalent of one of the top 3-5 overall picks in this draft. Landry had a great college career, and a very strong rookie year. He was drafted in the 2nd round of the NFL draft, which felt about right for him. All of this should lead to optimism going forward. His 40 time sucked, so it seems like people will try to find holes in his game wherever they can because we have been trained to think that if you cant run a 4.4, you will be an average WR.
Take a look at his spiderweb on mockdraftable
http://mockdraftable.com/player/4331/
His issue isnt just his 40 time, he just isnt a great athlete relative to the nfl. I agree that 40 time, in a vacuum, is usually overrated by the public. But that doesn't mean we should completely overlook athleticism either.
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ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Thats pretty cool. Never seen that.
He is not a great athlete per the combine numbers, but he looked good on the field, both at the college and pro levels. I'll take that over combine numbers personally. I would be reluctant to trade a top 6 pick, but a late first (10-12), all day. Who are you getting there that will give you so much more confidence than a guy who has already proven himself NFL-worthy?
He is not a great athlete per the combine numbers, but he looked good on the field, both at the college and pro levels. I'll take that over combine numbers personally. I would be reluctant to trade a top 6 pick, but a late first (10-12), all day. Who are you getting there that will give you so much more confidence than a guy who has already proven himself NFL-worthy?
Maybe I'm just a swing for the fences guy? Idk I feel like keeping a guy who is a borderline WR3 and at best a WR2 over a shot at someone better is just too safe. A late first could easily become a RB or WR that falls in the draft, at which point that pick would be much more valuable. Also, generally in the late 1st there is still someone you probably "like" that is on the board. I'll take a stab at a player I believe in that could have a higher ceiling than a player like Landry.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Does your fantasy team have 9 studs on it?
I don't see how that's particularly relevant. Jarvis Landry is far from a "stud" at this point. If he's a depth guy on my roster, then I'm better off taking a shot on a rookie. if he starts for me every week, my team could use an influx of talent. To me, either way, I'm taking a 1st for Landry every time.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
It's 100% relevant to your apparent philosophy of "get rid of anyone who isn't a stud for a pick who COULD be".
Let's say Landry improves JUST a smidge and scores 200 a year in PPR for a few years. There will be quite a few title winning teams in the fantasy world that have a STARTER scoring 200 for the year for them, so that 200 just may come in handy for people.
Although, I have no idea, maybe you play in leagues with very small rosters and very small starting lineups. In which case, I could see not waiting to give a very late 1st for Landry.
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That is far from my point. There is a decent chance Jarvis Landry has already reached his ceiling. That would mean selling him for a 1st round pick means selling high. And as I continue to say, fantasy is a weekly game. Yes, Landry finished as WR30 last year in PPR, but here are his finishes by week:
114
39
77
54
bye
17
51
66
21
30
20
7
30
35
13
42
33
Week 1 he only received one target. After that, he was a pretty consistent part of the offense. He received 9 or more targets 6 times over the last 8 weeks. In total he finished:
As a WR1: 1 time
As a WR2: 4 times
As a WR3: 4 times
WR4 or Later: 7 times
If we just look at the last 8 weeks when his usage was highest:
WR1: 1 time
WR2: 2 times
WR3: 4 times
4+: 1 time
He is what he is. His value in PPR comes from his floor, not his ceiling, and I dont see much use for a guy like that at his position. I could mix and match a cohort of higher upside players and get better production over the course of the season if I choose correctly. Again, perhaps more risky, but I'm shooting for upside, I'm shooting for ceiling. You don't win fantasy leagues hitting singles every year.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
"There is a decent chance Jarvis Landry has already reached his ceiling."
Barring injury or something crazy, saying this about a rookie (unless he had a historic year) is rather delusional. Wow. Plus Landy actually looks fairly decent, which helps also. Glad I took a little time to watch him a bit.
Define "good chance", because this is completely untrue for the huge vast majority of rookies.
Barring injury or something crazy, saying this about a rookie (unless he had a historic year) is rather delusional. Wow. Plus Landy actually looks fairly decent, which helps also. Glad I took a little time to watch him a bit.
Define "good chance", because this is completely untrue for the huge vast majority of rookies.
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I said "decent chance" not "good chance"
But I'm not going to keep repeating myself. His athleticism and production cohort speak for themselves.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I guess maybe then define "decent chance" for me. We differ on the meaning of that word I think.
I would say there is an "excellent chance" that he improves as a player and that we have NOT seen his ceiling.
I would also say there is an EXCELLENT chance that at pick 12 you will draft a guy that, a year from now, you will feel compelled to trade away for similar reasons. Weird.
Again, it might help to elaborate on your league's roster requirements and starting lineups. This could change my opinion some. I asked for that, haven't gotten it yet. It IS important.
I would say there is an "excellent chance" that he improves as a player and that we have NOT seen his ceiling.
I would also say there is an EXCELLENT chance that at pick 12 you will draft a guy that, a year from now, you will feel compelled to trade away for similar reasons. Weird.
Again, it might help to elaborate on your league's roster requirements and starting lineups. This could change my opinion some. I asked for that, haven't gotten it yet. It IS important.
Seemed like you were asking sarcastically so I didnt bother to answer that part. All my dynasty leagues are 12 teams that start 3 wr and a flex for the most part. Ppr. In terms if what i mean by "decent chance", i may be willing to go as high as 50%, definitely over 25%. The production supports his very low tested athleticism and the cohort of players who have also been that unexplosive is very poor. I really dont see him getting much better if at all. He is excellent at the technical aspects of the game, the area you would expect players to grow with time. It is far less likely that he grows to be a better athlete than a more explosive athlete learns how to play the position better. Furthermore, idk about you, but i draft and see drafted plenty of players every year past the 1st round that are very good to great. And statistically, ill take a 10% chance at a HR over a single any day. Those homers become foundational pieces.
Overall, this seems like a difference in mostly philosphy, but with respect to landry i think there is much to be desired. To give up a player like DGB who has worlds of upside (in the 1.06 example) for landry seems like lunacy
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Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
That is why I said "his pro day splits". Landry reportedly pulled his hamstring in his combine 40. He ran the 40 at 4.61 at his pro day twice. Cooper didn't run a 40 at his pro day.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
It probably is, which is why I am not doing it.
Pick 12 on the other hand?? Crazy not to give that up
RN I'd say my rookie rankings go something like this:
Cooper
Gurley
DGB
Parker
Perriman
White
Gordon
Strong
Abudullah
Ajayi
Mariota
Lockett
Agholor
Coates
Johnson
etc., something like that. So for me, if my top 11 guys go EXACTLY in the top 11, I probably take a Agholor or a Lockett at 12. Maybe an Ajai, Abudullah, Perriman, etc drops to me. I'd take a stab on that over Landry. If I end up with Lockett or Agholor I like the move. If I get one of my top 11, I absolutely love it. For me, its worth it. Again, sounds like just a difference in philosophy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yeah can you imagine anyone thinking that a player you grab at 1.12 this year could possibly be better than a guy that was drafted in the late 2nd/early 3rd in last year's rookie drafts? It's impossible to even fathom.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
I think it really comes down to what kind of league you are in. I've got Landry in my dynasty league where there are 14 teams, its PPR, and I can start 3 or 4 WRs. So on any given week there are 42-56 WRs starting in that league. At this point, I'd probably place his value at 1.8 in that league. My other dynasty league is a non PPR, 12 teamer with a max of 3 WRs starting. In that league, I would say his value is significantly less, probably an early 2nd.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
In regards to point one. They traded their 3rd round pick to the Saints for Kenny Stills. They still have Rishard Matthews to play outside in 3WR sets. I expect more 2TE sets with Cameron and Sims. They also have Damien Williams and Herron as WR who could be ready for expanded roles in the offense. I realize that some have been mocking WR to the Dolphins but I don't think they use their 1st or 2nd round pick on one. They already used their 3rd rounder on Stills.
In regards to point two. I expect Landry to improve after a year of seasoning. I expect most players to improve on their rookie seasons. Historically WR improve significantly in their second or third seasons. I think that improvement should be enough that Landry will be performing as a WR2 in PPR leagues. Based on how Landry took over so quickly as a rookie I do expect him to become the most targeted player for Miami in 2015.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
683 offensive snaps 62.4% offensive snaps 112 targets 84 receptions 9 ypc 758 yards 5TD
Landry was targeted .16398 times per snap
Assuming that Landry will be on the field for more than 62.4% of the offensive snaps to 820 (Mike Wallace had 819 Hartline 813) would be 134 targets. So with 112 targets as the low and 134 targets as the high would leave a median target level to 123.
112-123-134 targets at 70% catch rate would be 78-86-94 receptions.
It is really difficult for me to project yards per catch for Landry because his rookie numbers are so unusual. I decided to pick from the group of rookie WR you listed that had some decent careers and look at their career ypc.
Those players
Eddie Royal 11.1
Kendall Wright 11.3
Jerome Pathon 12.9
Wayne Chrebet 12.7
The average career YPC for these players was 12
So 78-86-94 receptions at 12 ypc would be 936-1032-1128 yards
TD per snap was .00732 at 820 snaps would be 6TD
The average WR2 from 2010-2014 had these numbers:
123 targets 73 receptions 60% catch rate 1015 yards 14 ypc 7 TD 219 points PPR
2015 Jarvis Landry median projection
123 targets 86 receptions 1032 yards 12 ypc 6 TD 225 points PPR
That would make him a WR2
Landry was targeted .16398 times per snap
Assuming that Landry will be on the field for more than 62.4% of the offensive snaps to 820 (Mike Wallace had 819 Hartline 813) would be 134 targets. So with 112 targets as the low and 134 targets as the high would leave a median target level to 123.
112-123-134 targets at 70% catch rate would be 78-86-94 receptions.
It is really difficult for me to project yards per catch for Landry because his rookie numbers are so unusual. I decided to pick from the group of rookie WR you listed that had some decent careers and look at their career ypc.
Those players
Eddie Royal 11.1
Kendall Wright 11.3
Jerome Pathon 12.9
Wayne Chrebet 12.7
The average career YPC for these players was 12
So 78-86-94 receptions at 12 ypc would be 936-1032-1128 yards
TD per snap was .00732 at 820 snaps would be 6TD
The average WR2 from 2010-2014 had these numbers:
123 targets 73 receptions 60% catch rate 1015 yards 14 ypc 7 TD 219 points PPR
2015 Jarvis Landry median projection
123 targets 86 receptions 1032 yards 12 ypc 6 TD 225 points PPR
That would make him a WR2
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Do you even know what a straw man is?ghostguy123 said:
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Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
I think it is improbable that Landry maintains a 70% catch rate and gets 12 ypr. His 70% catch rate was due to how he was used, which led to his 9 ypr.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
70% catch rate is pretty high for a WR but I did regress this from the 75% catch rate he had as a rookie.
I watched all of Jarvis Landry's plays on rewind earlier today. Also watched Dion Sims.
What Miami is doing is a lot of pick routes or rub routes. Whatever you want to call them. They like to stack receivers a lot and they run WR screens to Landry, the slant route is used a lot by Landry in certain games. There are quite a few drag routes and also the out route off of bootleg type plays.
Some of the plays where Landry gets stopped for minimal gain are the WR screens. But a good number of them where on broken plays where Tannehill is scrambling and Landry works his way back to the QB.
Landry has earned Tannehills trust as he often looks at Landry when he is in trouble.
I don't think yards per reception is a very consistent stat from season to season. The WR above I used career numbers for had YPC variations for example:
Eddie Royal 8.2-13.4 ypc
Kendall Wright 9.8-12.5 ypc
Jerome Pathon 10.2-17.1 ypc
Wayne Chrebet 10.2-14.4 ypc
The offense for the most part likes to work the short passing game so YPC for all Miami receivers may remain at the lower end of the spectrum. At the same time I can see them expanding the types of routes and ways they use Landry now going into his second season with Tannehill and a greater variety of types of plays could lead to a higher YPC.
I watched all of Jarvis Landry's plays on rewind earlier today. Also watched Dion Sims.
What Miami is doing is a lot of pick routes or rub routes. Whatever you want to call them. They like to stack receivers a lot and they run WR screens to Landry, the slant route is used a lot by Landry in certain games. There are quite a few drag routes and also the out route off of bootleg type plays.
Some of the plays where Landry gets stopped for minimal gain are the WR screens. But a good number of them where on broken plays where Tannehill is scrambling and Landry works his way back to the QB.
Landry has earned Tannehills trust as he often looks at Landry when he is in trouble.
I don't think yards per reception is a very consistent stat from season to season. The WR above I used career numbers for had YPC variations for example:
Eddie Royal 8.2-13.4 ypc
Kendall Wright 9.8-12.5 ypc
Jerome Pathon 10.2-17.1 ypc
Wayne Chrebet 10.2-14.4 ypc
The offense for the most part likes to work the short passing game so YPC for all Miami receivers may remain at the lower end of the spectrum. At the same time I can see them expanding the types of routes and ways they use Landry now going into his second season with Tannehill and a greater variety of types of plays could lead to a higher YPC.
Jrodicus
Footballguy
Sankey was a top 5 pick in a lot of my leagues last year. Does that mean the 1.08 is a good deal for him now?
Those receivers played with different teams, coaches, and coordinators in there careers, not really realistic to expect continuity in anything if you look at career stats. Something has to give here though with Landry. If he gets more balls thrown to him down the field, his ypc will go up but his catch rate will surely go down (and lower than 70%), at which point hed need substatially more targets. You cant project him to have his cake and eat it too, that isnt realistic. The only guys with catch rates even remotely that high are rbs and tes.
Were talking about someone whose long play was 25 yards last year...and he caught 84 passes! Again, this is both an athleticism issue (cant break just one?) and a usage issue (clearly he isnt being used down the field). Im not sure why either of those things would change, but if they did it would DRASTICALLY change his entire stat line, including his catch rate.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It could be. Some people may hold, as there are other cases where a runner didnt look great as a rookie and then bounced back in year 2. Some people may look to immediately cut their loses. The point being its far from crazy to value the 1.12 more than Landry, who caught a lot of passes, but wasnt terribly impressive as a rookie with 9 ypc.
Jrodicus
Footballguy
That's fine, but your basis in the underlined sections are your valuations of the players, not relative value compared to where they were drafted.
Where Landry, Sankey, or any other rookie was drafted in your dynasty draft last year should not play a huge factor in how you value them now, imo. Most people took Cooks over ODB last year, too.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It's not. Either you are totally missing my point or I'm not explaining it well enough. It's silly to say that a player taken at 1.12 can't turn out to be better than a player that was taken last year at a much later draft position. My point isn't that Landry can't be more valuable than the 1.12 BECAUSE he was a late second round pick last season - he surely can be. However, I would rather take my chances at 1.12 on landing a higher upside player though than a player that I see as, at best a career WR3 in ppr leagues. I'd prefer a guy like Jalen Strong or Ameer Abdullah to Landry. Obviously any player taken there could be a bust, but to me losing out on a player like Landry wouldn't make me lose much sleep since WR3/WR4 types are a dime a dozen in dynasty leagues.
Landry benefitted from playing with a QB that wasn't able to take advantage of the team's best offensive player and only having to deal with bums like Hartline and Gibson for targets. He's a decent option in ppr leagues as long as he sees targets (and he may very well hold the slot spot in that offense for the next 10 years), but like others have pointed out I just don't see him being athletic enough to be a playmaker so his ceiling is capped imo. Can he improve? Yes, but I don't see that ability in him. Didn't like him much as a prospect in the first place. He's a nice player to roster in ppr leagues since he should be a 7-10 ppg option most weeks, but in my estimation he's worth a mid-second round pick - and saying "it's crazy" not to trade away a late first round pick for him is something an empty barrel would say. If some one did trade away a late first for him, I certainly wouldn't think they were crazy to do so - I just wouldn't be the one doing it. People win using their own player evaluations and strategies. Landry may be the safer option than pick 1.12 right now - but he's certainly not without his own risks. Eddie Royal had a huge rookie season in ppr leagues as a rookie, and has gone on to have a nice career but is far from an asset in dynasty leagues. That's what I see in Landry.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well it is kind of hard to project for yards/catch for any rookie WR. Having a second season of performance so you can at least cross reference those two data points for a range of outcomes isn't possible yet.
The point of looking at career yards/catch is to show that this is a stat which varies a great deal from season to season. Even for the players above that you originally compared him to just based off of thier rookie seasons and low YPC.
Wes Welker is perhaps one of the most consistent players I have seen in YPC from year to year. Looking at his YPC year to year it still varies from 9.5 to 12.9. This variation is something you see in every WR.
So you can think that Landry is locked in to his rookie YPC performance or you can expect some variation in that performance from season to season. I expect it to vary, because it varies for every other WR.
According to this Jarvis Landry produced the 19th most yards after the catch in 2014. 463 of his 758 total yards (61% of his total yards). If he can catch the ball in stride he generates decent yards after the catch. I could see Landry's YPC improving just from better timing between him and Tannehill.
Here are a few other WR I found using DD looking for WR from 2010-2014 who had 9-11 YPC.
From the above list you have Hines Ward who had a career YPC of 12.1 and YPC varied from 10.5-14.1 over his career (throwing out his 1st and last season).
Antonio Brown and Derrick Mason are some other examples of high volume of receptions with lower YPC for a good part of their careers.
I wasn't suggesting that Landry's YPC can't vary, I was just questioning the methodology. But like I said, we're talking about 45 years of football with a weak list of comps. COULD he improve on YPC while maintaining an absurd catch rate? I suppose anything is possible. I just wouldn't deem it likely, and I'm one to play the percentages. Again, for his YPC to rise, things will have to give. There is not much more we can talk about this subject.
Jrodicus
Footballguy
I understand your position perfectly fine, it's just a straw man. I don't think anyone has been saying the guy drafted at 1.12 can't end up being more valuable, but rather that the 1.12 is not nearly fair value for Landry at this point in time. Even if you don't believe in him, you should be able to trade him for more than that.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
With Jennings and the strong possibility of them drafting a receiver early he is moving down on my receiver list.ex-ghost said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
If you could get "more" than the 1.12 for Landry, he's a sell. I don't think that's the reality though. I can't see anyone paying a mid to late first in any league that I'm in.
Jrodicus
Footballguy
I dare say the majority of people disagree. Who are the 11 guys that regardless of situation you'd rather have than Landry right now?
Cooper
Gurley
DGB
Parker
Perriman
White
Gordon
Strong
Ajayi
Abdullah
Mariota
At least for me
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Take Mariota off only because I don't like to draft QBs high (but could see him end up being more valuable than Landry down the road) and add Agoholor and Duke Johnson.
Perhaps I'm underrating Landry, but I just don't see the upside and if Miami does draft a WR in the first round, any loss of volume/targets for Landry is a bigger blow than it would be for other WRs since he can't make up for it with big plays.
squistion
Footballguy
I think Landry will be gold in PPR leagues for years. At worst he will a solid flex starter and at best I can a see a top #15-20 WR (his TDs numbers will probably limit his ceiling).
I would have no hesitation of paying a 1.10 to 1.12 for him currently and might do better than that after the NFL rookie draft.
I get the distinct feeling his biggest critics didn't like him coming out of college and have never owned him in any league, and are now doubling down telling us that a player they never considered acquiring as a rookie is a sell high candidate.
And to be still pointing to his combine numbers as proof that he really isn't any good seems silly to me. From a study I saw a couple years back, combine numbers have poor predictive value for NFL success with two exceptions, the 40 time for RBs and the high jump for 3rd year WRs (and that last correlation was so small that some thought it was an outlier). Yes, all these things overall are an indicator of athleticism, but without any proven correlation to success on the field, they in totality seem to represent more a curiosity than anything else.
But anyway, keep pointing to his combine numbers, draft pedigree and cherry picked stats while calling him overrated, as I quietly acquire him in leagues from those that take seriously what all the "fantasy experts" here have to say.
Just my
I would have no hesitation of paying a 1.10 to 1.12 for him currently and might do better than that after the NFL rookie draft.
I get the distinct feeling his biggest critics didn't like him coming out of college and have never owned him in any league, and are now doubling down telling us that a player they never considered acquiring as a rookie is a sell high candidate.
And to be still pointing to his combine numbers as proof that he really isn't any good seems silly to me. From a study I saw a couple years back, combine numbers have poor predictive value for NFL success with two exceptions, the 40 time for RBs and the high jump for 3rd year WRs (and that last correlation was so small that some thought it was an outlier). Yes, all these things overall are an indicator of athleticism, but without any proven correlation to success on the field, they in totality seem to represent more a curiosity than anything else.
But anyway, keep pointing to his combine numbers, draft pedigree and cherry picked stats while calling him overrated, as I quietly acquire him in leagues from those that take seriously what all the "fantasy experts" here have to say.
Just my
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Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
In regards to the range in a WR's YPR, you are going to need to look at their range in catch % as well. I would present the hypothesis that a higher YPR goes hand in hand with a lower catch %, given a large enough sample. I'm sure there are exceptions, there are exceptions to most any correlation, but I would not bank on Landry being that exception.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I share your perspective on there being a relationship between YPR and catch %Lott said:
This is a theory I have had for a pretty long time but I haven't found a good way to try to test for that. To do such a test well would require a pretty large sample size and some data I do not currently have access to such as adot data and completion percentage by depth of target.
I am curious enough that I am planning to put the data I do have access to together and seeing what I can find out.
YPC over a WR career for example here is Steve Smith. As you can see his YPR dips to 12 or below multiple times over his career with multiple highs over 15 YPR.
Perhaps the WR need to be separated into X, Z and slot groups. But that is a bit iffy trying to do as WR will change roles in the offense fairly often depending on the play call.
I did gather the total data for WR by draft class 1989-2014 but I need to break down the data by season now.. which will take a long time. 640 WR in this sample after I took out all the WR who never produced anything. The average YPR for this entire sample is 13.25
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
So anyone arguing the other side is just jealous that they missed out on Landry, really? That's where you want to go.squistion said:I think Landry will be gold in PPR leagues for years. At worst he will a solid flex starter and at best I can a see a top #15-20 WR (his TDs numbers will probably limit his ceiling).
I would have no hesitation of paying a 1.10 to 1.12 for him currently and might do better than that after the NFL rookie draft.
I get the distinct feeling his biggest critics didn't like him coming out of college and have never owned him in any league, and are now doubling down telling us that a player they never considered acquiring as a rookie is a sell high candidate.
And to be still pointing to his combine numbers as proof that he really isn't any good seems silly to me. From a study I saw a couple years back, combine numbers have poor predictive value for NFL success with two exceptions, the 40 time for RBs and the high jump for 3rd year WRs (and that last correlation was so small that some thought it was an outlier). Yes, all these things overall are an indicator of athleticism, but without any proven correlation to success on the field, they in totality seem to represent more a curiosity than anything else.
But anyway, keep pointing to his combine numbers, draft pedigree and cherry picked stats while calling him overrated, as I quietly acquire him in leagues from those that take seriously what all the "fantasy experts" here have to say.
Just my
I've only labeled him a "sell high" based on some one claiming that people would pay more than the 1.12 for him (if that was assumed to be true). I don't really buy that so honestly I'd say he's hold. I don't want to come across as saying he isn't any good at all. I clearly think he's a decent option in ppr league as a WR3 - I just think he's getting a little overhyped here, but I suppose this is a "bandwagon" thread so that shouldn't really be surprising.
I will admit that I did go and look at the ADP in startup mocks at DLF and Landry was going before all but seven rookies in those mocks - so perhaps I'm wrong about his trade value, but when push comes to shove in real established leagues I don't see many people paying the 1.08 for Landry.
Can anyone point to some recent trades where Landry was moved for first round pick(s)?
Also, Is ypr really a "cherry picked" stat or just a stat? I'd also argue that his draft pedigree is actually favorable for him.
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