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If Cordarrelle Patterson were in the 2014 NFL draft, would he be a top


Cordarrelle Patterson  

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While trying to compare Cordarrelle Patterson to the incoming class of rookies, I was wondering about a hypothetical:

Imagine that, due to some strange and arcane rule, Cordarrelle Patterson was put back into the NFL draft after his rookie season. Do you think that he would have been drafted in the top 5 picks? Top 10? Top half of the first round?

Imagine that the NFL ruled that Patterson was no longer allowed to return kicks anymore. Do you still think he'd go in the top 5? Top 10? Top half of the first round?

Patterson was drafted 29th overall last year. Knowing what we know now, would he have gone higher? Or, in a class as deep as this one was at receiver, would he have gone lower?

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I'd say top 5. His upside is probably higher than any of the WR in this draft.

His upside was higher than any WR in last year's draft, too, but he still fell to 29th behind Austin and Hopkins.

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I said top 16 and 1st round.

He's addressed some doubts but is still largely unproven.

I'm confident he'd be the 3rd WR selected.

I'm slightly higher on him as I went top 10 and top 16. Can't fault your reasoning however. I still think Watkins and Evans would go first, but I don't think he'd be far behind.

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NO would take him over Cooks imo

Well, the Saints passed on Cordarelle last year.

And moved up for Cooks this year.

I think Cooks is tailor made for Brees

What part of Patterson's game isn't good for brees?

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I'd say top 5. His upside is probably higher than any of the WR in this draft.

His upside was higher than any WR in last year's draft, too, but he still fell to 29th behind Austin and Hopkins.

Sure... but we're also assuming (as per your OP) that we'd either have:

A) Patterson's promising rookie year on his resume prior to the draft

or

B) Patterson would've had another year in college, in which case he could have possibly exploded and had one of those insane senior seasons that vault guys like him into Top 5-10 status.

His last 4 weeks to close out last season he went 15 receptions, 214 yards, 14.33 yards & 3 TDs and he rushed for 8 for 129 yards and 2 TDs that type of production is intense. Extrapolated to a full season we're talking... 60 rec, 856 yards, 12 TDs and 32 rushes , 516 yards and 8 TDs. Obviously, not realistic numbers from a TD standpoint. But even if he halved it and went 6 receiving and 4 rushing. That's still an amazing season. He flashed a ton of skill and his situation is only better this year.

Lets put it this way, if someone offered me Watkins/Evans for Patterson straight up. I would turn it down as a Patterson owner. I like his situation, QB and overall talent potential a lot more than both of them. I think Patterson would have been drafted before them in this draft had he stayed in school another season or if he was put back into the draft as per your example.

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Didn't he have like the second most yards total of any player including return yardage?

ETA - Yes. McCoy, Patterson, Charles, Forte, A. Brown.

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There's not a WR in the NFL with a higher upside than Cordarelle Patterson. Nobody.

That said, knowing what he showed in his rookie season, I believe Patterson would be the 2nd WR off the board behind Watkins if he was put in the 2014 draft.

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Knowing what we know now, Patterson is the 1st WR taken in this class people are greatly underestimating the guaranteed hit for NFL teams IMO. We absolutely know Patterson isn't a bust given last years information. His upside was already well documented prior to that. Removing most of the doubt increases his value exponentially. A more interesting question is if Patterson had stayed in school a 2 year or just transferred there a year earlier, then where would he rank. In that scenario I think he ranks in the top 10 but I'm not sure if it's above Watkins or not. Teams would probably be split on them and it would be a team by team preference.

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Knowing what we know now, Patterson is the 1st WR taken in this class people are greatly underestimating the guaranteed hit for NFL teams IMO. We absolutely know Patterson isn't a bust given last years information. His upside was already well documented prior to that. Removing most of the doubt increases his value exponentially. A more interesting question is if Patterson had stayed in school a 2 year or just transferred there a year earlier, then where would he rank. In that scenario I think he ranks in the top 10 but I'm not sure if it's above Watkins or not. Teams would probably be split on them and it would be a team by team preference.

:goodposting:
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Now you have a full year of NFL film on him.

Against NFL competition, running NFL plays and schemes and dealing with NFL coaches..

True of almost anyone that is good and shows it in the NFL.

Lacy, Bernard and Bell all go in 1st round of this years NFL Draft.

Too many questions are answered. But not quite-so yet for Montee Ball and Christine Michael.

Sheldon Richardson? Star Lotulelei? Eric Reid? Kiko Alonso? All go higher.

jurb hits it above.

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Watkins and Evans go ahead of Patterson, but he would have went ahead of ODB. Patterson is a great talent, but I still see Watkins and Evans as more complete WR's that will have a better career than Patterson. Watkins and Evans are going both 20 years of age and will be turning 21 years of age soon. Patterson is 23 and will be turning 24 years of age this season (all young but still that should factor in a bit). Patterson is still developing as a WR and may never ever become that complete NFL wr that Minny is looking for. He is dynamic no doubt and you want the ball in his hands, but so will be the case with Watkins and Evans who are more natural pass catching players. Patterson may always look electric and make plays but I am more skeptical of him week to week being great vs both Evans/Watkins. This is nothing against Patterson it is more so how highly I feel about the other 2 guys.

Patterson is still raw and learning the position and he could finally get it or he could end up being Torrey Smith but more important to the return game. At no point in his career has Patterson caught more than 46 passes in a season. He has a high ceiling, but I don't know how even with what we know now can you say his ceiling is higher than Waktins or Evans. I think by the time Waktins and Evans are turning 24 years of age they will have proved more and then some that they are more valuable to an NFL offense than Patterson. Once again not meant to knock Patterson who I think is going to play a nice role in the Minny offense going forward it is just the other two guys are imo going to be better players.

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Even with what the Bills knew now do you think they would have made the same trade to acquire Patterson from Minny? I think the answer would be no.

Who knows?

It's the Bills.

Kidding.

Mostly.

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Do we expect a Josh Gordon like season out of Patterson this year with Norv in town?

That's pushing it, I don't expect a Josh Gordon like season from anyone. Josh Gordon averaged 19ypr last season which is simply ridiculous. More realistic numbers for Patterson this year?

75 receptions, 1100 yards, 7 TDs and probably like... 20 rushes, 150 yards and 2 TDs

Although a lot of people will probably say I'm reaching here. It's more or less the type of pace he was on towards the tail of last season and the team should be better offensively this year.

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Stat: Patterson was 2nd in the league last season, in Pass Interference yardage "gained" on his 4 calls.

Something around 110yds.

Tells me he's a serious downfield threat... hope he builds on that

Courtesy of the Vikes msg board:

Here were the 2013 leaders in drawing pass interference flags, based on yardage awarded:

Vincent Jackson: 124 yards, six flags
Cordarrelle Patterson: 119 yards, four flags
T.Y. Hilton: 103 yards, six flags
Antonio Brown: 97 yards, three flags
Torrey Smith: 93 yards, six flags
Larry Fitzgerald: 90 yards, five flags
Victor Cruz: 87 yards, four flags
Marlon Brown: 82 yards, three flags
Dwayne Bowe: 74 yards, seven flags

Patterson ranked second despite getting 78 targets, fewer than half of Jackson's 159. It's another indication of Patterson's big-play ability...

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Do we expect a Josh Gordon like season out of Patterson this year with Norv in town?

That's pushing it, I don't expect a Josh Gordon like season from anyone. Josh Gordon averaged 19ypr last season which is simply ridiculous. More realistic numbers for Patterson this year?

75 receptions, 1100 yards, 7 TDs and probably like... 20 rushes, 150 yards and 2 TDs

Although a lot of people will probably say I'm reaching here. It's more or less the type of pace he was on towards the tail of last season and the team should be better offensively this year.

good posting. I think Patterson and Jennings will both get a major bump up, add in better qb play as well. Plus AP in the backfield.

I think this offense will surprise this year as long as they get decent qb play

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Stat: Patterson was 2nd in the league last season, in Pass Interference yardage "gained" on his 4 calls.

Something around 110yds.

Tells me he's a serious downfield threat... hope he builds on that

Courtesy of the Vikes msg board:

Here were the 2013 leaders in drawing pass interference flags, based on yardage awarded:

Vincent Jackson: 124 yards, six flags

Cordarrelle Patterson: 119 yards, four flags

T.Y. Hilton: 103 yards, six flags

Antonio Brown: 97 yards, three flags

Torrey Smith: 93 yards, six flags

Larry Fitzgerald: 90 yards, five flags

Victor Cruz: 87 yards, four flags

Marlon Brown: 82 yards, three flags

Dwayne Bowe: 74 yards, seven flags

Patterson ranked second despite getting 78 targets, fewer than half of Jackson's 159. It's another indication of Patterson's big-play ability...

Really interesting statline... he's also 2nd in overall average on the state too.

Antonio Brown: 32.33

Cordarrelle Patterson: 29.75

Marlon Brown: 27.33

Victor Cruz: 21.75

Vincent Jackson: 20.66

Larry Fitzgerald: 18

TY Hilton: 17.16

Torrey Smith: 15.5

Dwayne Bowe: 10.57

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I looked up Patterson's DPIs. He drew a 22-yarder against the Giants, a 44-yarder in garbage time against the Packers (team was down 20 points, less than 2 minutes remaining), a 23-yarder against the Seahawks, and a 30-yarder with an 11-point lead and two minutes left against the Eagles (the Matt Asiata game). He drew penalties with Ponder, Freeman, and Cassell under center.

I'm assuming that's already accounted for in his aDoT, though.

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Stat: Patterson was 2nd in the league last season, in Pass Interference yardage "gained" on his 4 calls.

Something around 110yds.

Tells me he's a serious downfield threat... hope he builds on that

Courtesy of the Vikes msg board:

Here were the 2013 leaders in drawing pass interference flags, based on yardage awarded:

Vincent Jackson: 124 yards, six flags

Cordarrelle Patterson: 119 yards, four flags

T.Y. Hilton: 103 yards, six flags

Antonio Brown: 97 yards, three flags

Torrey Smith: 93 yards, six flags

Larry Fitzgerald: 90 yards, five flags

Victor Cruz: 87 yards, four flags

Marlon Brown: 82 yards, three flags

Dwayne Bowe: 74 yards, seven flags

Patterson ranked second despite getting 78 targets, fewer than half of Jackson's 159. It's another indication of Patterson's big-play ability...

I don't know what this stat really means as you don't get many fantasy points for drawing PI calls. Patterson is a big time talent but still kind of a pointless stat.

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before Kelvin Benjamin for sure. Mid-late first rounder.

For sure? I like Benjamin more due to who his QB is.

Talking NFL draft, not fantasy draft. In other words, if both were on the board, would the Panthers have selected Benjamin or Patterson?

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Stat: Patterson was 2nd in the league last season, in Pass Interference yardage "gained" on his 4 calls.

Something around 110yds.

Tells me he's a serious downfield threat... hope he builds on that

Courtesy of the Vikes msg board:

Here were the 2013 leaders in drawing pass interference flags, based on yardage awarded:

Vincent Jackson: 124 yards, six flags

Cordarrelle Patterson: 119 yards, four flags

T.Y. Hilton: 103 yards, six flags

Antonio Brown: 97 yards, three flags

Torrey Smith: 93 yards, six flags

Larry Fitzgerald: 90 yards, five flags

Victor Cruz: 87 yards, four flags

Marlon Brown: 82 yards, three flags

Dwayne Bowe: 74 yards, seven flags

Patterson ranked second despite getting 78 targets, fewer than half of Jackson's 159. It's another indication of Patterson's big-play ability...

I don't know what this stat really means as you don't get many fantasy points for drawing PI calls. Patterson is a big time talent but still kind of a pointless stat.

I would tend to think that DPI calls would hold predictive value going forward. You typically only draw DPIs when you beat the defender, and the ability to beat defenders is useful from a fantasy perspective when predicting future production.

Edit: Of course, nobody talks about Aaron Dobson's 5 DPIs for 81 yards, or Mohammad Sanu's 3 for 77. And in 2012, I don't recall anyone mentioning Brian Hartline's 6/91, Jeremy Maclin's 5/134, or Jerome Simpson's 3/86. This isn't to say that including DPIs in the analysis makes for a worse analysis- in fact, quite the opposite, I truly believe that all receivers should be credited with the pass interference penalties that they draw!- it's just meant to point out that such analysis often only gets deployed to support things that people already believe.

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Good points Adam.

Though this may sound very "primitive/basic analysis" but perhaps those guys didn't get "mention" because they were not a team's no1 WR

of last season's list, seems to me only 1 (Marlon Brown) is not the team's #1 WR... I gues sit could be argued that Patterson isnt either, tho to me he is as of this season

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before Kelvin Benjamin for sure. Mid-late first rounder.

For sure? I like Benjamin more due to who his QB is.

Talking NFL draft, not fantasy draft. In other words, if both were on the board, would the Panthers have selected Benjamin or Patterson?

I still like Benjamin, both are raw with upside coming out of college. I guess it comes down to preference.

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I think Watkins would still be 1st because he is a lot safer and polished and still has great upside. I think it would be tough for Tampa Bay to pass up on him, but I definitely think Detroit would have gotten him at 10 if he were there instead of Ebron.

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Stat: Patterson was 2nd in the league last season, in Pass Interference yardage "gained" on his 4 calls.

Something around 110yds.

Tells me he's a serious downfield threat... hope he builds on that

Courtesy of the Vikes msg board:

Here were the 2013 leaders in drawing pass interference flags, based on yardage awarded:

Vincent Jackson: 124 yards, six flags

Cordarrelle Patterson: 119 yards, four flags

T.Y. Hilton: 103 yards, six flags

Antonio Brown: 97 yards, three flags

Torrey Smith: 93 yards, six flags

Larry Fitzgerald: 90 yards, five flags

Victor Cruz: 87 yards, four flags

Marlon Brown: 82 yards, three flags

Dwayne Bowe: 74 yards, seven flags

Patterson ranked second despite getting 78 targets, fewer than half of Jackson's 159. It's another indication of Patterson's big-play ability...

I don't know what this stat really means as you don't get many fantasy points for drawing PI calls. Patterson is a big time talent but still kind of a pointless stat.

I would tend to think that DPI calls would hold predictive value going forward. You typically only draw DPIs when you beat the defender, and the ability to beat defenders is useful from a fantasy perspective when predicting future production.

Edit: Of course, nobody talks about Aaron Dobson's 5 DPIs for 81 yards, or Mohammad Sanu's 3 for 77. And in 2012, I don't recall anyone mentioning Brian Hartline's 6/91, Jeremy Maclin's 5/134, or Jerome Simpson's 3/86. This isn't to say that including DPIs in the analysis makes for a worse analysis- in fact, quite the opposite, I truly believe that all receivers should be credited with the pass interference penalties that they draw!- it's just meant to point out that such analysis often only gets deployed to support things that people already believe.

I would venture to guess that the stat is so inconsistent year in and year out to prove it worth any type of value at predicting future success.

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Not sure where he would go in the 2014 draft, but I do know that in all the leagues I own Patterson, owners are trying like hell to get him from me. Some of the offers have been pretty damn good too. So in other words, he's a hot commodity right now. The question is whether to let him go in some of these deals and so far I haven't given in.

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I would venture to guess that the stat is so inconsistent year in and year out to prove it worth any type of value at predicting future success.

I would think that DPI is too inconsistent to make it much use in predicting future DPI penalties. I would also think that yardage+DPI would be a better predictor of future yardage than just current yardage alone (similar to how hits+hurries+sacks better predicts future sacks than current sacks alone does).

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Not sure where he would go in the 2014 draft, but I do know that in all the leagues I own Patterson, owners are trying like hell to get him from me. Some of the offers have been pretty damn good too. So in other words, he's a hot commodity right now. The question is whether to let him go in some of these deals and so far I haven't given in.

Yeah, so far in the past like 3 weeks I've had about 4 offers on him in one of my leagues where I own him. They've ranged from downright awful to really fair trades. But I traded up to take the kid last season, I'm not going to jump ship now unless it's a clear win for me.

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Not sure where he would go in the 2014 draft, but I do know that in all the leagues I own Patterson, owners are trying like hell to get him from me. Some of the offers have been pretty damn good too. So in other words, he's a hot commodity right now. The question is whether to let him go in some of these deals and so far I haven't given in.

Yeah, so far in the past like 3 weeks I've had about 4 offers on him in one of my leagues where I own him. They've ranged from downright awful to really fair trades. But I traded up to take the kid last season, I'm not going to jump ship now unless it's a clear win for me.

Yeah, I made it a point to get Patterson in all my dynasty leagues last year. He is by far the player I'm most approached about with trade interest. His stock is very high right now and so e of the offers are decent. I'm with you however, I won't seem unless it's a clear win for me.
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Not sure where he would go in the 2014 draft, but I do know that in all the leagues I own Patterson, owners are trying like hell to get him from me. Some of the offers have been pretty damn good too. So in other words, he's a hot commodity right now. The question is whether to let him go in some of these deals and so far I haven't given in.

Yeah, so far in the past like 3 weeks I've had about 4 offers on him in one of my leagues where I own him. They've ranged from downright awful to really fair trades. But I traded up to take the kid last season, I'm not going to jump ship now unless it's a clear win for me.

Yeah, I made it a point to get Patterson in all my dynasty leagues last year. He is by far the player I'm most approached about with trade interest. His stock is very high right now and so e of the offers are decent. I'm with you however, I won't seem unless it's a clear win for me.

Do bear in mind, we're still in may. The train hasn't even really started yet for hype, these are people trying to get the 'early hype' deals and get him cheap. Wait until we get into the like August realm. It'll be like last year where I was watching people trade away half their draft for David Wilson. If I get an offer like the one I saw someone turn down for Wilson last season, it'll be hard not to bite on it (The offer was Jamaal Charles, 2014 1st and 2015 1st for David Wilson). But otherwise, I'm riding the train and waiting on one of those "ROFL, Sure man. Accept" type of deals. Especially if he has a monster preseason game or two to really get those happy trigger finger types to start dealing for him. I almost had someone give me Patterson for my 1.07 this year right before the draft but he decided against it last second. But I would have taken that trade and laughed all the way to the bank, hell I'd have dealt 1.01 if I had it for him as I'd be taking him over Watkins if he came out this season (as we've discussed at length in this thread).

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I definitely bought him.

If I owned him I wouldnt sell.

posted in another thread: I paid 1.04 and 2.01 for patterson and big ben (I needed a solid consistent qb, with only rg3 rostered)

looks like you got a really nice deal imo.

pretty much gave up cooks/beckham and 2.01(freeman/mason) for patterson and qb 1.

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I tried to get Patterson but the owner is not only a Patterson fan but a Minny fan as well. I happen to like Teddy in Minny who will help Patterson as early as this year.

Yeah, I'm buying pretty hard on the Minnesota offense as a whole this season as long as Teddy gets the nod in week 1. I think the lot of them are off to the races.

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