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RB Jerick McKinnon, KC


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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

Would I do 2.1? I'd pay that for him but would not give him up for that right now. I'm not as sold on Breida as you or bostonfred but I do agree with part of BF's post he just made that McKinnon is looking like he's going to fill a Coleman or Freeman type of role. 

 

 

Yeah I agree it will be a Coleman or Freeman role. Hot take. 

Just joking but we are all assuming McKinnon is signed to be the Freeman, right? And Breida the Coleman? Is that too big an assumption or is it fair?

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McKinnon was sub 4 ypc last year, but he had a lot of bad games.  Might be a scheme issue but he really only had 4 games with decent per carry averages.  

I do think he'll get a lot of opportunity to catch the ball like Freeman, but breida could be the better runner.  He averaged almost a full yard more per carry and caught 21 balls in limited duty, plus he has a year head start in a system where shanahan says it can  take running backs over a year to learn. 

Both guys are smallish.

I haven't seen the details of the contract but if they spent that much they probably aren't looking to add an early down back - I wouldn't be surprised if the add someone later.  

For day one I'd probably lean McKinnon 60/40 split over breida with more receiving work, but it could go either way.  Coleman was drafted higher than and later than Freeman. 

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McKinnon is listed on Rotoworld as 5'9" and 205 lbs. Freeman is 5'8" and listed at 206 lbs. I've heard mention of JM playing closer to 215, though.

Everytime I saw McKinnon get a carry last year, there were one or two defenders on his ### the instant the ball hit him. I know people have said a lot about his YPC but I swear he didn't have a chance on a *lot* of Vikes plays. 

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13 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

 

Just joking but we are all assuming McKinnon is signed to be the Freeman, right? And Breida the Coleman? Is that too big an assumption or is it fair?

Not my assumption. I feel safe thinking McKinnon's floor is Coleman type of his usage but his floor may be his reality.

I'd add if it boils down to these two as the primary RB's I'd tend to put McKinnon on that Freeman type of usage and I'd NOT want to move him for that pick 8-10 range I referenced earlier but it's early and the Shanahan's are kind of like king makers of seemingly out of no where or lightly regarded RB's. Which is actually what excites me about this landing spot for McKinnon but I'm expecting some more comp coming.

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3 minutes ago, barackdhouse said:

McKinnon is listed on Rotoworld as 5'9" and 205 lbs. Freeman is 5'8" and listed at 206 lbs. I've heard mention of JM playing closer to 215, though.

Everytime I saw McKinnon get a carry last year, there were one or two defenders on his ### the instant the ball hit him. I know people have said a lot about his YPC but I swear he didn't have a chance on a *lot* of Vikes plays. 

Good point on size. Freeman to my eye runs with considerable more purpose and power but if bench press is any kind of measure of power McKinnon threw down 32 at his combine.

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6 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Try n flip him now before they draft someone.....

I get the instinct, but curious why SF would overpay (my opinion) a RB like McKinnon if they planned to diminish him behind a rookie? That defies logic, no?

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Just now, BigJim® said:

I get the instinct, but curious why SF would overpay (my opinion) a RB like McKinnon if they planned to diminish him behind a rookie? That defies logic, no?

Niners haven't been very active filling holes in FA either, they are going to need those draft picks to address their interior O'line, corners (Sherman is nice depth at this point only), LBers and WRs.

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24 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Good point on size. Freeman to my eye runs with considerable more purpose and power but if bench press is any kind of measure of power McKinnon threw down 32 at his combine.

Google lists JM at 216. ESPN article from last June said he bulked up to 212. Breida meanwhile is 190. I suppose Breida could be on the block but I thought they really liked him. It would seem strange to have him and JM fill the same role. I'm sure they'll draft a rookie or two, and Joe Williams will get a chance to compete. But otherwise JM is the new Freeman as I see it. That's a prediction and a bet. I otherwise agree that a Coleman role is his floor. But I think that would leave Breida out to dry which I don't believe is going to be the case.

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Bill Barnwell awards an F grade for the 49ers landing McKinnon

Excerpt:

RB Jerick McKinnon, 49ers

Grade: F

McKinnon hit free agency in pursuit of a deal where he could serve as a primary running back, but his case for a larger role isn't quite clear. The Georgia Southern product was hyperefficient over his first two seasons, averaging 4.9 yards per carry over 165 rushing attempts, but as the larger half of a rotation over the two ensuing seasons, his 309 rush attempts have produced just 3.6 yards per attempt. 14.2 percent of his runs have turned into first downs, which ranks 50th among 51 qualifying backs over that time frame.

Some of that could be chalked up to a dismal offensive line in 2016, but McKinnon wasn't much better behind a much better line in 2017. He also fumbled three times after going his entire career without one. At this point, he profiles as a third-down back with big-play ability, but asking him to run the ball more than five or six times per game is probably too much.

It was shocking, then, to see the 49ers give McKinnon a four-year deal for $30 million. The only running back on a multiyear deal with a larger annual salary than McKinnon is LeSean McCoy. San Francisco did this last year when it fell in love with Kyle Juszczyk, didn't trust its ability to mold a fullback, and gave him a deal more than 200 percent larger than any other fullback's contract. (Juszczyk subsequently made the Pro Bowl, but that's because he's the most famous fullback; he was mostly an anonymous receiver, didn't contribute as a runner, and the 49ers averaged both more yards per carry, expected points per run, and a higher first down rate when Juszczyk wasn't on the field.)

Kyle Shanahan watched his dad Mike's offenses produce 1,000-yard backs seemingly out of thin air. His most successful backs in the pros have been exclusively midround picks on rookie deals in Steve Slaton, Alfred Morris, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, none of whom was drafted before the third round. McKinnon should do better under Shanahan's tutelage. He might even be very good, given what the 49ers have around him, but is he going to suddenly become the second-best running back in football? Even if he does, why aren't the 49ers confident they can develop a young back into a worthwhile contributor in a scheme which has been doing that for nearly three decades now? General manager John Lynch and company have certainly made some positive moves, and they have money to burn, but the players they've gotten stuck on -- Juszczyk, Malcolm Smith and now McKinnon -- have produced incomprehensible contracts.

We'll revisit this grade if the terms of the contract don't match the initial numbers, but if not, this is one of the most stunning deals of the offseason.

 

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20 minutes ago, BigJim® said:

I get the instinct, but curious why SF would overpay (my opinion) a RB like McKinnon if they planned to diminish him behind a rookie? That defies logic, no?

Because he isnt that good...despite his sparq score and all that....he is better served as the lightning in a rbbc...i know shanny jr likes joe williams alot and they have brieda...those guys feel JAGish to me

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3 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Because he isnt that good...despite his sparq score and all that....he is better served as the lightning in a rbbc...i know shanny jr likes joe williams alot and they have brieda...those guys feel JAGish to me

I think the whole backfield at this point is very JAGish...and they have a weak oline to begin with

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Freeman and Coleman weren't exactly considered studs until they succeeded in the Shanahan offense.

Shanahan wants one cut backs with good acceleration and vision and who can catch the ball.  He doesn't need power backs because he wants the zone blocking to keep your jersey clean if you pick the right hole.  He does need you to be able to stretch the play and accelerate when you find your opening.  

(That's probably also why a lot of his dad's backs had acl injuries. They had to plant that leg down hard and turn on a dime, and strength and conditioning coaches were still figuring a lot of things out).

Breida is a good fit for that.  Mckinnon probably will be too. Williams, we'll see but I'm not holding my breath. 

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22 minutes ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Because he isnt that good...despite his sparq score and all that....he is better served as the lightning in a rbbc...i know shanny jr likes joe williams alot and they have brieda...those guys feel JAGish to me

Right, but isn't your position based on how SF feels about McKinnon (after agreeing to pay him $30 mil) and not how you view him?

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3 hours ago, menobrown said:

Great landing spot. Going to try and move him now. If anyone see's any trades involving him after this signing please post.

 

ok keep in mind I'm consolidating as I had 6 2018 1st rd rookie picks. I made the following trade today

FFPC

I gave Mckinnon and 1.10

I got Christian MCcaffrey

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32 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Currently McKinnon is the 4th highest paid RB in the NFL.

Will be interesting to see contract details.  Paraag Marathe (SF contract / cap guy) usually structures these very well.  Sherman was originally reported to be getting 39 million but much different once you look at the details.  

 

Some interesting insight:

https://twitter.com/BetterRivals/status/973914256658849792

Quote

Jerick McKinnon is an elite athlete that’s an ideal fit for Shanahan’s scheme. His pSPARQ score of 147.5 is right up there with Saquon Barkley (148.4). His PFF receiving grade (82.4) is t-7th in the NFL. His pass blocking grade puts him 8th in the NFL. This is gonna be fun.

https://twitter.com/SageRosenfels18/status/973978535093329920

Quote

Shanahan will use Jet McKinnon everywhere. He will be half RB and half WR. He will be worth the price tag.

 

Pass catching was Hyde's biggest weakness and is one of the key elements Shanahan needs out of a RB.  McKinnon being in a scheme that fits his skill-set will be fun to watch. McKinnon, Breida, and Williams (if he gets it together) will make for an explosive group.  Add in Juice and I am excited to see what Shanahan does with these guys.

Niners have a ton of cap space and are set-up well for the future so that shouldn't really be an issue.

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5 minutes ago, SF409ers said:

Will be interesting to see contract details.  Paraag Marathe (SF contract / cap guy) usually structures these very well.  Sherman was originally reported to be getting 39 million but much different once you look at the details.  

 

Some interesting insight:

https://twitter.com/BetterRivals/status/973914256658849792

https://twitter.com/SageRosenfels18/status/973978535093329920

 

Pass catching was Hyde's biggest weakness and is one of the key elements Shanahan needs out of a RB.  McKinnon being in a scheme that fits his skill-set will be fun to watch. McKinnon, Breida, and Williams (if he gets it together) will make for an explosive group.  Add in Juice and I am excited to see what Shanahan does with these guys.

Niners have a ton of cap space and are set-up well for the future so that shouldn't really be an issue.

I agree it shouldn't be an issue for SF. I am guessing that they front load the contract so they could get out of the contract after the first two seasons should they want to, but by that time McKinnons contract becomes a bargain relative to the market as most of the guaranteed money is paid in the first season as part of a roster bonus or something like that.

It is remarkable however that McKinnon is currently paid this high relative to the other RB in the league. It also gives some context of comparison between McKinnon and Hyde that McKinnon was paid more than Hyde and Cleveland certainly does have the cap space to pay him more, but he didn't get as big a contract. Similarly Dion Lewis got about $5 million a year contract with the Titans. McKinnon seems to be valued more than these two RB and a lot of people may have thought Hyde was a better RB than McKinnon.

Further context is that Latavius Murray got a similar contract to Hyde and Lewis last season, but McKinnon was able to get more money than Murray did as well.

As a Vikings fan I know McKinnon is a very good RB. The money just further supports that view.

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5 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I really don't get the contract.  Even if Shanahan loves McKinnon and feels like he is the perfect fit in his system surely the market wasn't this hot for him.  I would have expected him to sign for about half of this.

To be fair, you probably haven't seen the actual contract.

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6 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I really don't get the contract.  Even if Shanahan loves McKinnon and feels like he is the perfect fit in his system surely the market wasn't this hot for him.  I would have expected him to sign for about half of this.

Same here... But those stats listed by SF409ers were pretty good. Guy is only going to be 26. Can pass block very well. Can catch very well. Ridiculous athlete. Can run between the tackles reasonably well. Homerun hitter. Maybe NFL teams took notice of all those factors. 

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9 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I really don't get the contract.  Even if Shanahan loves McKinnon and feels like he is the perfect fit in his system surely the market wasn't this hot for him.  I would have expected him to sign for about half of this.

I wonder a bit about this as I would say one of McKinnon's weaknesses is his vision and spatial awareness. He played in a primarily outside zone blocking system last season, not that different than what Shanahan runs. He is good and I respect the coaches view on him as being a fit for their offense.

McKinnon is good at a lot of things, just not sure about him being a perfect fit. He may have been ill suited for some of the power style runs they were using with Peterson earlier in McKinnon's career. It is really difficult to say as the blocking was better in 2017 than it had been the previous two seasons due to better personnel on the offensive line. So it wasn't just scheme that made McKinnon play better in 2017.

I am not sure I see McKinnon as a 300 touch RB but he could likely be good with 200-250 touches. That seems possible and the money sort of suggests that is what they may be looking for from him. McKinnon has had just over 200 touches the last two seasons with the Vikings.

I didn't think Matt Breida really fit the ZBS that well either. So many different RB have had success in this system. I think both McKinnon and Breida have some deficiencies in seeing cut back lanes and may leave yards on the field, but otherwise capable RBs.

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10 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

To be fair, you probably haven't seen the actual contract.

Plus RB pay is creeping up. Freeman big deal last offseason, Bell getting tagged again.

Dion and McKinnon are not top 10 paid RB's right now because their teams likely value them as top 10 RB's. They are top 10 paid RB's because they had the good timing to be UFA's this year.

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This is not complicated: freak athlete, Shanahan system, paid like a top 10 back. Even if you believe this is similar to Atlanta, he is the Freeman role. That makes him a top 10 back. He can catch, he can pass block, he’s great at breaking tackles and the scheme is going to serve him very nicely. Rarely do you get as perfect a match as this for FA. Only way you should flip him is if you’re getting top 6 value in this draft or equivalent.

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2 minutes ago, menobrown said:

 

Dion and McKinnon are not top 10 paid RB's right now because their teams likely value them as top 10 RB's. They are top 10 paid RB's because they had the good timing to be UFA's this year.

RB pay has indeed gone up, but Hyde and perhaps Crowell (contract size not yet disclosed) did not get as much money as Lewis and McKinnon did. So it's not entirely about timing.

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20 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

McKinnon is good at a lot of things, just not sure about him being a perfect fit. He may have been ill suited for some of the power style runs they were using with Peterson earlier in McKinnon's career. It is really difficult to say as the blocking was better in 2017 than it had been the previous two seasons due to better personnel on the offensive line. So it wasn't just scheme that made McKinnon play better in 2017.

Did he really play better in 2017?  He averaged 4.9 and 5.1 ypc in his first 2 seasons as a CoP behind Peterson.  When asked to carry the ball more in 2016 and 2017 he averaged 3.4 and 3.8 ypc.  The latter of those came behind the same line that Dalvin Cook was running like Herschel Walker behind.

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18 minutes ago, zamboni said:

RB pay has indeed gone up, but Hyde and perhaps Crowell (contract size not yet disclosed) did not get as much money as Lewis and McKinnon did. So it's not entirely about timing.

To me that says dual purpose RBs (ones that are mismatches in the passing game) get paid a premium.

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2 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Did he really play better in 2017?  He averaged 4.9 and 5.1 ypc in his first 2 seasons as a CoP behind Peterson.  When asked to carry the ball more in 2016 and 2017 he averaged 3.4 and 3.8 ypc.  The latter of those came behind the same line that Dalvin Cook was running like Herschel Walker behind.

https://twitter.com/PSchrags/status/973909347171434497

Looks like more than 2 teams had offers out to him.  For whatever reason seems McKinnon was highly coveted in free agency.

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22 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Did he really play better in 2017?  He averaged 4.9 and 5.1 ypc in his first 2 seasons as a CoP behind Peterson.  When asked to carry the ball more in 2016 and 2017 he averaged 3.4 and 3.8 ypc.  The latter of those came behind the same line that Dalvin Cook was running like Herschel Walker behind.

This would be the area that I have questions about McKinnon. He did not have as good vision as Dalvin Cook for similar cut back lanes in the ZBS as he will be asked to find in SF too.

McKinnon does pretty much everything else well. He can break tackles, runs with good power and pad level, has good burst and speed, can catch the ball well and good in pass protection.

He just doesn't have the same level of instinct, vision or awareness of Cook or other RB in my opinion. Otherwise he is a very good RB.

I don't think the yards per carry mean very much in the small sample size. In 2016 it is the most unlike his other seasons and that is because of how bad the Vikings offensive line was at run blocking that season. Historically bad that year. McKinnon was injured at some point during the season as well but then played better towards the end of the year when fully healthy again. Schedule may have eased up as part of that as well. You can look at a season or half a season or 4 game samples and none of those samples are large enough in my opinion for yards per carry to have much meaning.

Jerrick McKinnon is a career 4 ypc player at this time on 474 rushing attempts. This is slightly below the average of 4.2 for the league but good enough. I trust the career numbers more for him because he hasn't been fully featured yet in an offense. 200 touches is still a lot but there aren't many games where they just had McKinnon make plays from start to finish of the game. He was always gets by another RB or 2nd in opportunities to another RB for the majority of his games.

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27 minutes ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

https://twitter.com/PSchrags/status/973909347171434497

Looks like more than 2 teams had offers out to him.  For whatever reason seems McKinnon was highly coveted in free agency.

Yep.  Looks like Jets were in the mix.

https://twitter.com/CamInman/status/974001746665029632

Quote

#49ers were in a "bidding war" with #Jets for RB Jerick McKinnon, who got 4-year, $30 million deal, per @AdamSchefter

 

The premium in pay is all about his pass catching ability.  Hyde was one of the worst pass catching backs and for Shanahan this is a must have for his system to fully function.

Another interesting tidbit: https://twitter.com/BetterRivals/status/973915068432896000

Quote

• 49ers now have the highest $$ FB & the 4th highest $$ RB • Both players are dual-threats and can be nightmares catching the ball out of the backfield • Last yr Juszczyk ranked #6 in RB-target success (54%) behind only Coleman, Thompson, Lewis, Bell & Kamara • RB-passes >>>

 

Think this why they have been quiet on the WR front. Other than the fact that they like the guys they already have, they view both the FB and RB as an extension to the WR corp.  They were limited with this last year due to bad QB play early on and Hyde not being very effective in the pass game.  When Jimmy G took over Juszczyk was much more effective.  Expect they will use McKinnon early and often in the passing game.

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29 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

 

He just doesn't have the same level of instinct, vision or awareness of Cook or other RB in my opinion. Otherwise he is a very good RB.

 

He was a QB when he came into college and split time there his first two years, so his relative lack of experience shows here IMO

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29 minutes ago, SF409ers said:

Yep.  Looks like Jets were in the mix.

https://twitter.com/CamInman/status/974001746665029632

 

The premium in pay is all about his pass catching ability.  Hyde was one of the worst pass catching backs and for Shanahan this is a must have for his system to fully function.

Another interesting tidbit: https://twitter.com/BetterRivals/status/973915068432896000

 

Think this why they have been quiet on the WR front. Other than the fact that they like the guys they already have, they view both the FB and RB as an extension to the WR corp.  They were limited with this last year due to bad QB play early on and Hyde not being very effective in the pass game.  When Jimmy G took over Juszczyk was much more effective.  Expect they will use McKinnon early and often in the passing game.

Not to mention Breida's strength in the passing game too.  This is an athletic backfield, it will be exciting to see what Shanahan draws up

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7 minutes ago, Slapdash said:

He was a QB when he came into college and split time there his first two years, so his relative lack of experience shows here IMO

I am a fan of Jerrick McKinnon. I have seen him make some improvement each season he has been in the league.

I hope SF gives him the opportunity to be the man. I think he could do very well. Wish the Vikings could have kept him over Latavius Murray, but I understand McKinnon wanting his shot to be the top RB. He would never get that chance with Dalvin Cook ahead of him.

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16 hours ago, tangfoot said:

Unless you happen to the best one of them in the game.

He’ll have gotten more money than any other RB in the league over the course of this season and last season. He was offered a 14m per year deal last offseason, I have no sympathy for Bell’s “plight” or peoples defense of it.

Edited by Bojang0301
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Trying to understand this massive contract he got, and really how it breaks down.  So he's getting a $2m signing bonus, $4.2m year one (guaranteed) salary, AND a $5.5m roster bonus due in just a few days?  So 11.7m in year one alone?!  Then, if they want him the 2nd year it's "only" an additional $3.7m?  So more in the first two years than Hyde is going to get total over 3?

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On 3/14/2018 at 9:17 AM, menobrown said:

Great landing spot. Going to try and move him now. If anyone see's any trades involving him after this signing please post.

 

In my PPR dynasty, I traded Luck and McKinnon for Wilson and 1.08 rookie pick.  I had trouble moving McKinnon during his good games last year, and just don't think the trade market was going to get too hot for him in the pre-season.  Plus, moving Luck helps me diversify, as I also have TY and Doyle, and am just discouraged by that whole situation.

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10 hours ago, matttyl said:

Trying to understand this massive contract he got, and really how it breaks down.  So he's getting a $2m signing bonus, $4.2m year one (guaranteed) salary, AND a $5.5m roster bonus due in just a few days?  So 11.7m in year one alone?!  Then, if they want him the 2nd year it's "only" an additional $3.7m?  So more in the first two years than Hyde is going to get total over 3?

Just incredible.  Couldn't give him away last offseason and now this...

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On 3/14/2018 at 0:04 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

Did he really play better in 2017?  He averaged 4.9 and 5.1 ypc in his first 2 seasons as a CoP behind Peterson.  When asked to carry the ball more in 2016 and 2017 he averaged 3.4 and 3.8 ypc.  The latter of those came behind the same line that Dalvin Cook was running like Herschel Walker behind.

 

his rookie year he wasn't really a change of pace back. peterson whooped his kid and mckinnon became the guy between the 20s until he hurt his ankle.

 

what's his nose would get all the touches inside the 10, though.

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Coach Kyle Shanahan said he got "lost" watching Jerick McKinnon's game tape before the 49ers signed him to a four-year, $30 million deal.

"There's so many things I liked about him, just visualizing how I would use him and the stuff that we would do," Shanahan said. Shanahan has a history of orchestrating high-octane rushing offenses and is particularly enamored by McKinnon's passing-game skills. "What is a huge bonus on him is when you talk about the pass game," Shanahan said. "When it comes to separating and beating linebackers and safeties in man-to-man coverage, I definitely think he’s an issue for teams."

NSFW Analysis

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  • Joe Bryant changed the title to RB Jerick McKinnon, KC

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