ghostguy123
Footballguy
Actually no he didn't He said "If" he loved Gurley, as in, "If" he liked the clearly less valuable guy more. He certainly was not clear whether he does or not.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
[Dynasty] Todd Gurley (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter tdmills
- Start date
ghostguy123
Footballguy
And if this were AP coming out, this is a different conversation, so stop trying to be cute and make this a "Ghost guy doesnt like rookies" type of strawman.
I am talking about THIS year, and THESE players, and THIS situation.
I am talking about THIS year, and THESE players, and THIS situation.
Proust Loves Cake
Footballguy
Fine. So am I. You were the one who created the shiny new things strawman in the first place, so take a deep breath and just accept that some folks are lower on Bell and higher on Gurley than you are. No need to make a big stink about it.
Last edited by a moderator:
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
that's kind of a terrible way of looking at it --- you just cherry picked some situation that already happened, removing all the risk out of the situation to make some kind of point.
I'm just kind of skimming the conversation, so I might not have this right, but I think some guy's entire point was factoring in that risk that you just removed.
what if we change peterson to trent richardson and sjax to anyone ---- aha! now he's right and you're wrong!
I think you should take whoever you want to take, but what a lot of people do in these drafts when they evaluate players is discount the risk, thinking there opinion is rock solid 100%, which of course it never is.
when a rookie enters the league, or when graham switches teams, etc, there's always risk that needs to be accounted for whether you think it's there or not.
Billy Ball Thorton
Footballguy
Funny I though these discussions were for dynasty players. Now you eluding to this year alas redraft.
Bell isn't in the same talent tier as Gurley not even close. One has drug issues one doesn't. One is suspended 3games one isn't. Only thing Bell has over Gurley is he's older so he's actually played in the NFL.
This discussion is going to look silly in the no too distant future.
Edit to add. Zero chance I trade 1.1 for Bell. Just as you must take in adp value you must also consider over inflated value. Bell to me falls to that category. But I'm also someone that doesn't wait for the guy to "do it" before I buy Sometimes your too late. I think Gurleys value will pass Bells fairly quick and then it's too late.
Also one failed drug test would kill Bells value. Someone who has already shown very poor judgement. When Blackmon or Gordon got busted for the first time I wasn't worried. This is a real issue.
Last edited by a moderator:
werdnoynek
Footballguy
for the Mason owners.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
chris johnson got 250 carries in his rookie year to lendale's 200
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Nothing I am talking about has anything to do with redraft. What are you talking about?
By THIS year I don't just mean this year's production. I mean this year, this draft, these players, this situation taking into account now and going forward. Sorry, really thought that was obvious.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
That is a more relevant concern in redraft than dynasty (if his rehab goes smoothly).
If Fisher prefers, to quote Christopher Walken, "more bellcow", than by process of elimination, beyond 2015, it ain't going to be Mason.
Below is a report from the Rams war room by Michael Silver (I'd say one of Fisher's higher profile media friends, along with Peter King, who has also done these in the past). It includes five embedded videos, the second one, titled "Fisher on Gurley: He's Special", is about five minutes. Again, everybody is entitled to their opinion if they don't think Gurley is special. But with absolutely zero doubt, Fisher clearly does think of him in those terms. He mentioned him in the context of being an extension and continuation of a long lineage of great Rams RBs, like Dickerson (my favorite player, period, not just Ram), Bettis, Faulk, Jackson, and he also talked with Gurley about Eddie George* and the fact that he was even part of the Bears when they had Walter Payton.
* Fisher once used George as a battering *RAM* against opposing defenses (in 2000) 403 X at 3.7 Y/C a pop.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000490604/article/st-louis-rams-warroom-drama-reveals-team-on-a-familiar-track
Last edited by a moderator:
Proust Loves Cake
Footballguy
There clearly is risk. Gurley could bust like Trent. In the other hand, i can't deny that my own eyes confirm a lot of things talent evaluators a lot more trained, experienced, and expert than me say... That he is pretty darn close to having that AP skill set. He looks nothing like Trent. But there's clearly risk involved.Kool-Aid Larry said:
But, the point I'm also making is that the tendency to undersell/minimize risk of "established" players. Bell has an inordinate number of red flags for me, including his usage last year which is not sustainable, as well as his own injury history / risk, and character concerns given he had already been suspended in his short career.
So, while you're right that i and others might be at risk for Gurley to not live up to the hype, i have to trust what I've seen--that he's unusually talented--and that Bell is being overvlaued by folks who think last year will just keep happening over and over again.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Seeing is believing - Gurley rehab status treadmill video
http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2015-04-25/todd-gurley-sprints-on-treadmill-2015-nfl-draft-torn-acl-georgia
http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/story/2015-04-25/todd-gurley-sprints-on-treadmill-2015-nfl-draft-torn-acl-georgia
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
that's pretty interesting, btw
I don't follow college ball at all, so these guys just pop into existence for me when they get drafted.
I always felt college stats are garbage, but it's kind of nice to get them lined up like this in a historical thumbnail.
I see lacy was pretty comparable stats-wise, albeit at a different school, what was the 'consensus' around here on him coming out?
obviously, the league wasn't as high on him, letting him go until the bottom of the second.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Sometimes, pedigree counts at the highest levels.
"14 of the 16 Hall of Fame running backs selected in the first round were among the first ten selections in the draft."
* Hall of Fame RB, first round pedigree distribution fun fact source
http://www.101sports.com/2015/05/04/three-facts-we-learned-about-the-rams-in-the-draft/
"14 of the 16 Hall of Fame running backs selected in the first round were among the first ten selections in the draft."
* Hall of Fame RB, first round pedigree distribution fun fact source
http://www.101sports.com/2015/05/04/three-facts-we-learned-about-the-rams-in-the-draft/
Last edited by a moderator:
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Different time periods, where it was almost normal for RB's to go in the top-10 or even top-5, though.
But talent is talent, so it does have some application here. The cream rises and all that.
Shutout
Footballguy
Yes and no. Lacy was an interesting guy. He went for the longest time as the "it" guy and people talked very highly of him. And then, when he did come out, it was if all this other stuff and concerns came out and people either got tired of talking about him or he simply became old hat or something. Whatever happened, I think its clear to say Denver made a huge mistake. One that might have cost them a title or two. Lacy ended up being exactly what people said in the earliest days.
I have a strong belief when it comes to fantasy speculation of rookies that it is best to ignore almost everything that happens between December and the time they get drafted. I think people are best served if they simply remember what they saw on the field amongst their peers and try to tune out the myriad of analytics, stories, rumors, hype, etc.
Spike
Footballguy
For the most part, I agree with this with 2 possible exceptions.
QBs - depending on the system, you can't just rubber stamp them and say, "Gee, he looked great in that (spread) offense, so he'll be great in the NFL."
RBs - ones that play programs that routinely have great OLs (Wisconsin and Alabama come to mind) frequently have huge stats but they also run through highway-wide lanes. (Ron Dayne and the like.)
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Shutout
Footballguy
Think the Broncos could have won with Lacy instead of Ball. Just an opinion but it seems their inability to play smash-mouth football when it mattered came back to haunt them.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
they would've reversed that 43-8 beating because eddie lacy comes running out of a phonebooth.
plz stop
plz stop
Shutout
Footballguy
An entire season of Lacy in Denver has a million moving parts. Its not as easy as to just point to one game and say whatever. A dominant running game may have been the difference between a bomb TD on play-action that first play versus what it was. No one knows for sure. Like I said. Just an opinion that Lacy was the better option.
Your hate for Lacy is well-documented so let's not make it about something it's not.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I believe the only 2 games the mighty lacy has encountered seattle have both been losses, while he put up a 2 game total of 33/107/0
/thread
/thread
Last edited by a moderator:
battlestar
Footballguy
Can someone please PM me when you start talking about Gurley again?
Pwingles
Footballguy
at my rookie draft last night, a league mate who for whatever reason hates Gurley (which is fine, that is his opinion), I asked him what he didnt like, he says, "hes just not that good"..... I laugh and shrug it off. He then says, that he was a system product and his numbers were "pedestrian" , big laugh from me. Made my night.
that is my story
that is my story
Last edited by a moderator:
Pwingles
Footballguy
bucksoh
Footballguy
IMO his vision is average to somewhat below, he doesn't make good cuts, he is the product of the SEC bias that most people display. He's not the best runner in this class, this was even before his injury.
Last edited by a moderator:
Pwingles
Footballguy
georg013
Footballguy
You might be on to something new here. There isnt an analyst out there who agrees with your assessment. If you are right you will be a genius. If you are wrong, you are just a Gurley hater. Cant wait to find out which you are!
mikmak8902
Footballguy
hmmmm ... I must be looking at a completely different player.
1. Vision - When I watch his film, I see plenty of timely cutbacks and solid vision inside the tackles. He does tend to bounce outside but when you are a world-class sprinter and hurdler, that's not necessarily a bad thing and probably a reason to try to take the corner more than other slower RB's.
2. Cutting - He doesn't cut like Ameer Abdullah but the guy is 6'1" and 231lbs. He's a big back and I feel his lateral quickness and agility is at least above average for his size.
3. Best runner? - Who in this class is a better runner than Gurley? "Runner" is a very, very vague term. Are you saying he isn't the most productive back in the draft? Or are you saying he doesn't have alot of the sharp cuts and lateral agility that the other backs have? If it's the latter, I have to assume you are comparing him to the small backs in this draft because he blows away Tevin Coleman and Ajayi and any other big back in the draft.
I agree there are some backs that can hit the whole a little faster and make some sharper cuts and have slightly better vision, however, when gurley hits the whole, he's almost always going to get through (or by) that first tackler. That's the difference between him and the smaller back you are comparing him to. And he's faster than most of them to boot.
lardonastick
Footballguy
bucksoh
Footballguy
Not a Gurley hater, I think he will do well playing for the rams. I just don't fall for what everyone tells me he is sometimes I'm right sometimes I'm wrong. Only time will tell with Gurley.
bucksoh
Footballguy
I believe Gordon is the better back than Gurley and who I will take in my drafts. I also think their will be at least two more backs out of this class that will have a better career.
mikmak8902
Footballguy
I'm not trying to be argumentative, but why do you like Gordon better? I'm asking because I have Gordon behind 3 other backs in this draft and I'd like to hear some analysis in his favor. From what I've seen of Gordon, he seems pretty upright and not much of a cutback runner. I'm worried he's more of a product of the Wisconsin running machine than an actual elite back just like the rest of the Wisconsin backs that have come into the NFL. It's so hard to really evaluate him. When you watch the highlights they are all of him running through gaping wide holes on long runs.
Pwingles
Footballguy
bucksoh
Footballguy
I like Gordon's footwork a lot. He has much better vision than Gurley. To me Gordon is going to be in the HOF, if he doesn't get injured. Gurley is only going to be as good as his line, which is all he'll ever be. If Gurley wasn't playing in the SEC, he wouldn't be viewed by most as the best back. He probably would have been drafted 5-7 or a udfa, with his injury. Unpopular I know but it needs to be said.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Yeah, right?Rando messege board guy thinks he woulda been late round or udfa, if not for conference? Seems pretty far off from people who do this for a living taking a guy with 1 knee 10th overall, obviously someone doesnt think he is a system product.
Although, theyve been wrong before, *cough* tavon
Last edited by a moderator:
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Putting Gordon in the HOF already might be even more absurd...
