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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley (2 Viewers)

This is a big buy low opportunity imo. People are saying “I told you so” after he finished RB15 when the whole Rams offense basically imploded. If I’m a contender I don’t hesitate to give up a late first rounder, like Edwards-Helaire or what have you, for the proven commodity.

 
What makes you think they'll shop - because an ESPN talking head thinks they may?  Doesn't make any sense to me.
I think they’ll shop, because it’s the right thing for them to do. Just as the Cards should shop DJ, the Jets shop Bell, etc. Plus the Rams are up tight against the cap. 

 
Anyone who watched all of his games last season......knows he was strictly TD dependent. He was average at best as a RB and did not inspire any confidence he will ever be that dominant force ever again. 

The contract is bad, the Rams know this. They are stuck right now. And I would not be shocked to see another RB taken in the 2020 draft.

 
[Rapoport] From NFL Now: The #Rams have a decision to make on how to proceed with RB Todd Gurley, but they will meet with him first to discuss this year -- his knee, the plans, and how to proceed going forward. All options are on the table.

https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/1225487686754013185?s=21


Rotoworld take:

NFL.com's Ian Rapoport reports "all options are on the table" between Todd Gurley and the Rams.

Meaning, Gurley could be cut or traded following his perplexing, seemingly injury-marred 2019. ESPN's Lindsey Thiry made a "bold prediction" on Wednesday that Gurley could be traded. Rapoport reports coach Sean McVay wants to "sit down with Gurley before any decision is made." Such a conversation is often a prelude to the team moving on, but as Rapsheet points out, cutting Gurley would be close to a non-starter because of the cap ramifications. The move would leave behind a staggering $25.6 million in dead money. A trade would be difficult but not impossible. Gurley is due a $7.55 million roster bonus in March. The Rams, who have leveraged their roster to the hilt in recent years, are in a tough salary cap position with no easy solutions.

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter

Feb 6, 2020, 1:40 PM ET

 
What team would trade for him? Maybe a deal where Rams give pick to unload the contract? That seems a bit unlikely but who knows. Or they could pay a chunk of the contract maybe.

 
Do we really believe the Rams are better off with a combo of Brown and Henderson?  I know there are plenty of Henderson truthers on the board that spent a mid first on him last year, but his first taste of the NFL did little to inspire confidence.  Brown is a capable plodder, pedestrian at best.  Just can't see the Rams dumping Gurley unless 1) the injury is worse than any of us know (unlikely based on past year's performance) or 2) they plan to acquire a replacement back via trade or draft.  I just can't see them cutting him loose and riding with what they have.
I think you're underestimating Henderson.  I saw a game last year where his limited carries looked like he was shot out of a cannon.  I saw it and he looked fantastic that day.  The potential is there.

 
Do we really believe the Rams are better off with a combo of Brown and Henderson?  I know there are plenty of Henderson truthers on the board that spent a mid first on him last year, but his first taste of the NFL did little to inspire confidence.  Brown is a capable plodder, pedestrian at best.  Just can't see the Rams dumping Gurley unless 1) the injury is worse than any of us know (unlikely based on past year's performance) or 2) they plan to acquire a replacement back via trade or draft.  I just can't see them cutting him loose and riding with what they have.
They're better with them and 20 million to spend.

 
I think Malcom Brown shows upside too in his limited work, certainly enough to combine with Henderson as a legit combo without the true workhouse.

As mentioned, probably has to be additional incentivizing for some team to trade for Gurley

 
I think Malcom Brown shows upside too in his limited work, certainly enough to combine with Henderson as a legit combo without the true workhouse.

As mentioned, probably has to be additional incentivizing for some team to trade for Gurley
What if they cut him?  What’s the cap hit?

 
Anyone who watched all of his games last season......knows he was strictly TD dependent. He was average at best as a RB and did not inspire any confidence he will ever be that dominant force ever again. 

The contract is bad, the Rams know this. They are stuck right now. And I would not be shocked to see another RB taken in the 2020 draft.
Watched every min of every game.  Was hard to discern the issue honestly.  The first part of the year McVay was making the exact same  mistakes he made in the Super Bowl, continuing to try and run the wide zone run plays against the 6-1 D everyone starting playing against them. So TG had absolutely no where to go.  Once McVay finally adjusted mid year it got a bit better for the O overall but the interior of the line was atrocious.  Late in the year TG looked like the old TG to me and got around some corners like I hadn’t seen in a while.  So it’s hard for me with all that to point directly to his knee as the main issue.  

As far as him being TD dependent, that was certainly true last year.  But he’s been an absolute TD monster his whole career so that wasn’t an anomaly.   A case can be made every year his numbers were TD dependent (just not as exaggerated as last year obviously).   

 
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JohnnyU said:
What if they cut him?  What’s the cap hit?
17.25mil iirc.  Not an option.  
His cap number for the Rams in 2020 is $17.25M. His 2020 roster bonus ($7.55M) and salary ($5.5M) are already guaranteed. Link

So if the Rams release him, they have to take the full remainder of his pro-rated signing bonus ($12.6M) plus the 2020 guaranteed roster bonus and salary ($13.05M) against the 2020 cap. That is $25.65M, $8.4M more than if they just keep him on the roster. So obviously he will not be released.

If the Rams trade him, the acquiring team would pay his guaranteed salary. I think it is safe to assume the acquiring team would wait until after his 2020 roster bonus is paid in March, meaning the Rams would have to take the full remainder of his pro-rated signing bonus plus the 2020 roster bonus against their 2020 cap. That is $20.15M, $2.9M more than if they just keep him on the roster. I don't see them doing that... I'm not sure if they can really afford to do that. They are currently #23 in available cap space.

I suppose they could consider releasing or trading him next offseason, since they would save money against the 2021 cap by doing so. But there is no way out for them this offseason. Bottom line, it is a really bad contract for the team, and they never should have agreed to it.

 
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His cap number for the Rams in 2020 is $17.25M. His 2020 roster bonus ($7.55M) and salary ($5.5M) are already guaranteed. Link

So if the Rams release him, they have to take the full remainder of his pro-rated signing bonus ($12.6M) plus the 2020 guaranteed roster bonus and salary ($13.05M) against the 2020 cap. That is $25.65M, $8.4M more than if they just keep him on the roster. So obviously he will not be released.

If the Rams trade him, the acquiring team would pay his guaranteed salary. I think it is safe to assume the acquiring team would wait until after his 2020 roster bonus is paid in March, meaning the Rams would have to take the full remainder of his pro-rated signing bonus plus the 2020 roster bonus against their 2020 cap. That is $20.15M, $2.9M more than if they just keep him on the roster. I don't see them doing that... I'm not sure if they can really afford to do that. They are currently #23 in available cap space.

I suppose they could consider releasing or trading him next offseason, since they would save money against the 2021 cap by doing so. But there is no way out for them this offseason. Bottom line, it is a really bad contract for the team, and they never should have agreed to it.
very well said, thanks.

 
The most appealing aspect of acquiring Gurley is that he has a $5,500,000 base salary, as $7,550,000 of his guaranteed base salary comes in the form of a roster bonus likely to be paid by LA. As noted, Gurley is the most expensive back of 2020, but only to the Rams. If he is traded and paid $5,500,000 by another team, they’re paying him like the ninth-highest paid pack in the league.

It is still somewhat expensive, but what would Gurley receive if he was a free agent this year as he was originally supposed to be? The fact that he’s coming off of his worst season since his second year under Jeff Fisher and the concerns around his knee would not bode well for him and he’d suddenly be a much lesser option compared to free agent Derrick Henry. However, his base salary hits at the moment total $21 million, though he also has $5 million roster bonuses in 2021, 2022, and 2023.

Would a team sign Gurley to a four-year, $36 million contract that included three roster bonuses that they wouldn’t need to pay if it turns out he isn’t the player he used to be? A team could trade for Gurley and consider it a two-year deal: $5,500,000 base in 2020, $4,000,000 base in 2021, and a $5,000,000 roster bonus. That’s two years for $14,500,000, an average of $7,250,000. But if he doesn’t perform adequately in 2020, then you’ve only paid $5,500,000.

https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2020/2/7/21128342/todd-gurley-trade-rumors-market-rams-cap-space-chargers-bills-bucs-dolphins-deal-draft-picks

 
The most appealing aspect of acquiring Gurley is that he has a $5,500,000 base salary, as $7,550,000 of his guaranteed base salary comes in the form of a roster bonus likely to be paid by LA. As noted, Gurley is the most expensive back of 2020, but only to the Rams. If he is traded and paid $5,500,000 by another team, they’re paying him like the ninth-highest paid pack in the league.
As I posted just a few posts up, trading Gurley would actually increase his 2020 salary cap hit for the Rams by $2.9M. They don't have a lot of cap space to work with. I can't see them doing that. Maybe next offseason, when trading or releasing him would actually save cap space.

 
As I posted just a few posts up, trading Gurley would actually increase his 2020 salary cap hit for the Rams by $2.9M. They don't have a lot of cap space to work with. I can't see them doing that. Maybe next offseason, when trading or releasing him would actually save cap space.
So you don't think that article makes a case for a Gurley trade?  

 
So you don't think that article makes a case for a Gurley trade?  
Not a case for the Rams to trade him. The article never mentions that trading him would increase his 2020 cap hit for the Rams by $2.9M. The article does not explain why the Rams might think that is in their best interest. I don't see how it would be... not trading him preserves that $2.9M in 2020 cap space and gives them Gurley to lead their RB group.

The article attempts to make a case for another team to trade for him, but correctly points out that his 2021 roster bonus becomes guaranteed in a few weeks. the author makes a vague reference to offset language possibly canceling that out, but admits he doesn't know that to be true. I also don't know for sure, but I have to assume if a team trades for him, they are committed to paying him his 2020 salary and his 2021 roster bonus. If true and he doesn't perform and they release him after 2020, they will have spent $10.5M for 1 season of poor performance, and they will also have $5M in 2021 dead cap space. That undermines the case the article makes for it being a low risk investment.

But, again, even if I'm wrong about that, that is only helpful to the team that would notionally trade for him. It isn't helpful to the Rams.

Like I said previously, it is a really bad contract for the Rams. They should not have included these triggers that guarantee future year roster bonuses. The one last year that triggered guaranteeing his 2020 salary and roster bonus is the reason the team is unable to release him this offseason. The one that triggers in a few weeks is the last one that does this, which is one reason it will be much more feasible for them to release or trade him next offseason.

 
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Not a case for the Rams to trade him. The article never mentions that trading him would increase his 2020 cap hit for the Rams by $2.9M. The article does not explain why the Rams might think that is in their best interest. I don't see how it would be... not trading him preserves that $2.9M in 2020 cap space and gives them Gurley to lead their RB group.

The article attempts to make a case for another team to trade for him, but correctly points out that his 2021 roster bonus becomes guaranteed in a few weeks. the author makes a vague reference to offset language possibly canceling that out, but admits he doesn't know that to be true. I also don't know for sure, but I have to assume if a team trades for him, they are committed to paying him his 2020 salary and his 2021 roster bonus. If true and he doesn't perform and they release him after 2020, they will have spent $10.5M for 1 season of poor performance, and they will also have $5M in 2021 dead cap space. That undermines the case the article makes for it being a low risk investment.

But, again, even if I'm wrong about that, that is only helpful to the team that would notionally trade for him. It isn't helpful to the Rams.

Like I said previously, it is a really bad contract for the Rams. They should not have included these triggers that guarantee future year roster bonuses. The one last year that triggered guaranteeing his 2020 salary and roster bonus is the reason the team is unable to release him this offseason. The one that triggers in a few weeks is the last one that does this, which is one reason it will be much more feasible for them to release or trade him next offseason.
You failed to read the last sentence of my post - But if he doesn’t perform adequately in 2020, then you’ve only paid $5,500,000.

 
You failed to read the last sentence of my post - But if he doesn’t perform adequately in 2020, then you’ve only paid $5,500,000.
I specifically addressed it in the post you just quoted. To repeat the same statements point by point:

  1. The article attempts to make a case for another team to trade for him, but correctly points out that his 2021 roster bonus becomes guaranteed in a few weeks.
  2. The author makes a vague reference to offset language possibly canceling that out, but admits he doesn't know that to be true. I also don't know for sure, but I have to assume if a team trades for him, they are committed to paying him his 2020 salary and his 2021 roster bonus.
  3. If true and he doesn't perform and they release him after 2020, they will have spent $10.5M for 1 season of poor performance, and they will also have $5M in 2021 dead cap space.
  4. That undermines the case the article makes for it being a low risk investment.
 
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NFL.com's Mike Silver reports Todd Gurley is "coming up in trade talks."

Releasing Gurley isn't an option, as it would leave behind an absurd $25.6 million in dead money. Trading him would be a godsend at this point considering the concerns over the long-term viability of his knee. Gurley wasn't awful in 2019, racking up 14 total touchdowns and 1,064 yards in 15 games. Still, he averaged a career-low 6.7 yards per reception while finishing with fewer than four yards per carry for the first time since the infamous 2016 Jeff Fisher campaign.

SOURCE: Michael Silver on Twitter

Mar 16, 2020, 3:14 PM ET

 
NFL.com's Mike Silver reports Todd Gurley is "coming up in trade talks."
And this makes even less sense now than it did when this first came up, now that his 2020 roster bonus has guaranteed. Trading Gurley would increase his 2020 cap hit for the Rams by almost $3M. So why do that rather than keeping him and saving the $3M?

 
And this makes even less sense now than it did when this first came up, now that his 2020 roster bonus has guaranteed. Trading Gurley would increase his 2020 cap hit for the Rams by almost $3M. So why do that rather than keeping him and saving the $3M?
Isn't 3M chump change?

 
And this makes even less sense now than it did when this first came up, now that his 2020 roster bonus has guaranteed. Trading Gurley would increase his 2020 cap hit for the Rams by almost $3M. So why do that rather than keeping him and saving the $3M?
Isn't 3M chump change?
Not when you only have about $14.5M in available cap space... and have to pay the practice squad $2.1M... and have to reserve $3M to $4M for IR replacements during the season... and that is without signing a single internal or external free agent.

 
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I think the most relevant number is that keeping Gurley for 2020 & 2021 costs $14.5M in new money ($10.5M of which has to be paid/guaranteed this year). If the Rams cut or trade him then they save that money, if it's a trade then the new team gets him at that price (plus a $10M team option for 2022 and a $12.45M team option for 2023).

He also has a $7.55M guaranteed roster bonus in a few days, so if the new team is willing to take on that salary (in exchange for more favorable trade terms) then the Rams could dump some or all of that salary via trade.

There is also $12.6M of signing bonus which hasn't counted against the cap yet - that will be spread evenly over 3 years (2020-22) if the Rams keep him or accelerate all to this year if they get rid of him. But there are games for moving cap dollars around between years, like by restructuring Donald's contract to turn most of his 2020 salary into a "signing bonus", so the timing of the cap hit is less essential.

 
With the new rules that just came out prohibiting teams from flying players or or flying clubs medical staff to the player it just made him that much harder to trade. He can get a physical from a neutral local doctor , and he can refuse the physical if he wants, but all in all giving up compensation for a high paid RB with a knee issue when your own team doctors can't examine him seems pretty hard. Can't find a Bill O'Brien on every corner or anything.

Plus Gurley can just say no to the physical if he wants, so that gives him some control over where he goes.

 
[PFT] Per source the Rams are currently in discussions regarding a possible trade of RB Todd Gurley.

https://twitter.com/profootballtalk/status/1240650069688401922?s=21

 
Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio reports, "The Rams are currently in discussions regarding a possible trade of RB Todd Gurley."

It remains to be seen how much, if anything, teams are willing to give up to trade for Gurley. The 25-year-old RB has a troubling history of knee injuries and is signed through 2023. Releasing Gurley would leave behind an absurd $25.6 million in dead money, making a trade the only potential pathway for the Rams to part ways with their long-time RB. While Gurley managed to score 14 touchdowns last season, his average of 4.2 yards per touch was the lowest mark since his infamous 2016 Jeff Fisher-induced campaign. There's plenty of potential for a committee to emerge in 2020 if Gurley is ultimately back with the Rams.

SOURCE: ProFootballTalk on Twitter

Mar 19, 2020, 10:48 AM ET

 
it must be really tough being a Rams fan. I mean after that haul for the RG3 trade, you'd think they would be set for a long time. But they really didn't capitalize and have signed a lot of bad contracts and completely crippled their team and short term future. 

 
it must be really tough being a Rams fan. I mean after that haul for the RG3 trade, you'd think they would be set for a long time. But they really didn't capitalize and have signed a lot of bad contracts and completely crippled their team and short term future. 
Or you could look at it like we had the worst five year run in professional NFL history only to shortly turn it around and win 2 division titles and go to the Super Bowl. And it’s not like we’re out of the running for the playoffs, we are still a playoff caliber team.  We are in light years better position than we were.  It’s not even close. 

 
The Athletic's Jeff Schultz reports the Falcons have interest in a trade for Todd Gurley but that the obstacles are likely too difficult to surmount.

The Falcons already have a ton of money invested in their skill corps, and Gurley has one of the worst contracts in the NFL. The Falcons have the need, and Gurley is a hometown hero, but this seems extremely unlikely to happen.

RELATED: 

Atlanta Falcons

SOURCE: Jeff Schultz on Twitter

Mar 19, 2020, 2:55 PM ET

 
I just could never get a feel for him last year. I never saw the IT factor he possessed prior to his injury and the Super Bowl run. 

They couldn't trade him, cut him to stop payment of $10 Million.

Gordon, Freeman, Gurley all can find new homes. 

 

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