Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
I don’t know that Hyde is a threat but how many times have we seen a RB emerge late in the previous season and be hailed as a high draft pick only to revert back to journeyman status the next year?
A lot. It happens.I don’t know that Hyde is a threat but how many times have we seen a RB emerge late in the previous season and be hailed as a high draft pick only to revert back to journeyman status the next year?
I'm not trying to be snarky but just having trouble wrapping my head around this.....who would be some examples....I'm kind of drawing a blank trying to think of one...I don’t know that Hyde is a threat but how many times have we seen a RB emerge late in the previous season and be hailed as a high draft pick only to revert back to journeyman status the next year?
Kevan barlowI'm not trying to be snarky but just having trouble wrapping my head around this.....who would be some examples....I'm kind of drawing a blank trying to think of one...
I'm not trying to be snarky but just having trouble wrapping my head around this.....who would be some examples....I'm kind of drawing a blank trying to think of one...
Anyone who watched the 2018 Chiefs knows that Damien Williams came on strong to finish the season. Stepping in for Kareem Hunt, the former Miami Dolphin recorded 256 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 50 carries, good for 5.1 yards-per-attempt. Additionally, he added 23 receptions for 160 yards and two touchdowns during the regular season. On paper, this was a fantastic production which should ensure job security.
However, the film tells a dramatically different story. Williams entered 2018 as a journeyman backup who never impressed during four years with the Dolphins. During his time in Miami, Williams recorded just 3.6 yards-per-carry on 133 attempts. This average is truly atrocious and made him one of the least efficient running backs in the league. His 2018 season truly came out of nowhere, and there are two explanations for his success. Either Andy Reid found a way to eliminate his flaws, or Williams was simply placed in the perfect situation.
A deeper dive in the numbers suggests the later. Teams were afraid of Patrick Mahomes’ ability to throw the ball and basically allowed Kansas City to run the ball at will. Williams faced just 6.4 men in the box per carry, which is well below the league average. Additionally, Williams ranked just 112th in yards created per carry, which obviously isn’t good. He simply couldn’t pick up any yardage aside from what the blocking provided.
FF= talent + opportunity....you can argue all you want about the talent but the opportunity is most defiantly there..... and when he had the opportunity last year it looked like it was a good fit for whatever talent you think he has or does not have....I’m not sure what people are seeing in Williams. This guy is a 27 yr old 5 year pro whose career high season to date has been 256 rushing yards, which was last year when he got literally forced into action.
He was so run-of-the-mill that his high mark in carries in a game last year before Hunt got suspended was exactly 1 carry. He couldn’t even find his way onto the field to give Hunt a slight breather before the suspension. He was only forced into action at the end of last year where he had a couple of good games against suspect run Ds while running the best O in the NFL. The Chiefs didn’t fair so well record-wise and total offense-wise when the only change in their O was going from Hunt at RB to Williams.
This guy is absolutely a candidate to have someone steal his job if that someone can show that they’re even mediocre. If Hyde isn’t that guy, and at this point he may not be, then there is Thompson waiting and has the earmarks of being the type of RB that Reid loves.
lol...its funny cause that is the first and only guy I thought of....cause I remember him being probably the biggest swing and miss by the experts here at FBG when they pimped him like crazy and he sucked....but I really couldn't tell in quickly looking at his stats at pro football reference....which year was the "crazy 2nd half" year and then the sucky year....after his "big year" he still put up over 1,000 all purpose yards....and 7 TD's....so not sure if he was a good example of a second half wonder one year that sucked the next....?....or if he was just over hyped after his big year....I don't know...Kevan barlow
No, but by your own words here he’s a RB who is being pimped by experts as a RB1 in a 12 team league. This is a guy with a heavily stained resume, and if you look at my post above has some very skewed production from last season that could be very deceptive.FF= talent + opportunity....you can argue all you want about the talent but the opportunity is most defiantly there..... and when he had the opportunity last year it looked like it was a good fit for whatever talent you think he has or does not have....
fantasy doesn't really care about your backstory....
he is the RB1 on the best offense in the NFL....if people think he is going to lose that job....fine....pass on him and move to the next guy on your list....
David and Joe have him currently at RB12....so its not like he is getting pimped as a top 5 guy or something....
thats cool....and I am assuming because of human nature that since you drafted Thompson you are going to be on the anti-Williams train....you want your pick to hit......so you will bring up all the Williams back story and what not as a way of justifying the pick....and that is fine...just like you will post the good stuff about Thompson and call him a guy Reid loves, and somebody else will post above how he sucks at blocking and protecting Mahomes will probably be a priority....you think Williams sucks, and that may really be the reason you drafted Thompson and you think Williams will lose the job....but he played well and all indications are it will be his job moving forward....many people like you will roll the dice that he loses the job, some won't....thats what makes this hobby so fun....I’m not arguing about the opportunity. That’s clear. I’m discussing who will get the advantage of playing in that opportunity, and clearly my position is that Williams may not be the best candidate. He’s not going to get the position by default like he did last season.
thats cool....and I am assuming because of human nature that since you drafted Thompson you are going to be on the anti-Williams train....you want your pick to hit......so you will bring up all the Williams back story and what not as a way of justifying the pick....and that is fine...just like you will post the good stuff about Thompson and call him a guy Reid loves, and somebody else will post above how he sucks at blocking and protecting Mahomes will probably be a priority....you think Williams sucks, and that may really be the reason you drafted Thompson and you think Williams will lose the job....but he played well and all indications are it will be his job moving forward....many people like you will roll the dice that he loses the job, some won't....thats what makes this hobby so fun....
Found this doing recent research on Thompson - who I drafted. Take it as you will.
https://lastwordonprofootball.com/2019/05/31/darwin-thompson-kansas-city-chiefs-ota-takeaways/
This makes sense because I knew Williams' prior history as journey man. He capitalized his opportunity and his flaws will reveal this year. I know Mahomes is due for negative regression (not major way) and not having Tyreek will hurt Chiefs' offense. HC Reid always scheme his passing offense creatively to ensure open rushing lane for his RBs.A deeper dive in the numbers suggests the latter. Teams were afraid of Patrick Mahomes’ ability to throw the ball and basically allowed Kansas City to run the ball at will. Williams faced just 6.4 men in the box per carry, which is well below the league average. Additionally, Williams ranked just 112th in yards created per carry, which obviously isn’t good. He simply couldn’t pick up any yardage aside from what the blocking provided.
Coach Andy Reid confirmed the Chiefs want Damien Williams to be "the full-time starter for the year."
"He's taken that challenge," Reid continued. "He wants to do this thing. He's earned the right to be that guy. And now it's a matter of production. Ya gotta go do it." Following Kareem Hunt's release ahead of Week 13 last season, the Chiefs initially gave the No. 1 job to Spencer Ware. But Williams quickly established himself as the best back on the team. Williams scored 10 touchdowns over the final six games, including the playoffs, averaging 17.5 touches per contest. Some are of the belief Carlos Hyde is going to take a chunk of Williams' work this year. But Williams has done everything to earn a shot at sliding right into Hunt's old role as a do-it-all bell cow.
SOURCE: chiefs.com
Jul 10, 2019, 10:48 AM ET
He is the RB1 on the offense that was the best in the NFL last season. There is certainly no guarantee they will be the best offense this season. Hunt was a big part of it, and he is gone. Hill will likely be suspended for a non-trivial number of games. They have a new starting C and the RG returns after playing just the first 5 games last season. Mahomes and Kelce may have had career years last year that they will never repeat.he is the RB1 on the best offense in the NFL
He had some off the field issues at Oklahoma IIRC, which ultimately led to him being dismissed and going undrafted.Why was he undrafted? not lack of talent (4.45 at 220lbs is very impressive) and very good hands IMO = no negative personal news since turning pro that I could find
Does he have miles/injury history? very few miles (equivalent of one workhorse season over a 5 yr span, only a dislocated shoulder in 2017 = no red flags
Can he be an every-down RB? built like the prototypical workhorse (5'11", 220), and a good pass-catcher = yes, he can
I wonder then, why such a low ADP? Why can't he take over where he left off in 2018? KC is fertile ground for RB1 production. With his size/skill combo, he projects to be a true workhorse. Personally, I don't really think there is a middle ground. Either he will be a top 8 RB, or a complete bust who loses the gig. Right now, I am leaning more towards stud, but will enjoy watching Hyde and company try to make an argument for themselves in the preseason.
You are correct - grades and failed drug testsHe had some off the field issues at Oklahoma IIRC, which ultimately led to him being dismissed and going undrafted.
Gore and Williams were not in Miami at the same time.He seems to have passed the admissions test, but it’s hard shaking the feeling that he’s going to eventually falter as a full-time back. Not that Gase/Miami is something to base a lot on, but Williams wasn’t very effective there and passed up by Drake and Gore.
My bad - Drake then.Gore and Williams were not in Miami at the same time.
In fairness Drake was a second round pick and Williams was an UDFA so Drake getting more work shouldn't be shocking.My bad - Drake then.
True, although IIRC after Ajayi was traded to Philly, Williams had first crack at the job but was considerably outplayed by Drake and was relegated to 3rd down duties.In fairness Drake was a second round pick and Williams was an UDFA so Drake getting more work shouldn't be shocking.
Actually, Williams started over Drake until he separated his shoulder, then Drake became the starter.True, although IIRC after Ajayi was traded to Philly, Williams had first crack at the job but was considerably outplayed by Drake and was relegated to 3rd down duties.
I’m not sure if the news on Hill changes this 7/10/19 post....and/but they also added one of the most explosive players in the draftHe is the RB1 on the offense that was the best in the NFL last season. There is certainly no guarantee they will be the best offense this season. Hunt was a big part of it, and he is gone. Hill will likely be suspended for a non-trivial number of games. They have a new starting C and the RG returns after playing just the first 5 games last season. Mahomes and Kelce may have had career years last year that they will never repeat.
IMO Williams is likely to be the RB1, but I think he is going to disappoint most projections.
Yes, knowing Hill won't be suspended takes away one of the deltas in comparison to last season.I’m not sure if the news on Hill changes this 7/10/19 post....and/but they also added one of the most explosive players in the draft
After all that...if you think Williams will be the RB1 in KC....I’m not sure how you can say he will disappoint....he showed (for a good chunk of time, not just a couple weeks).....what he can do in this offense....IMO...he may be seriously undervalued right now....I’m not sure people are really factoring in how good this offense/QB/coaching staff are....WILLAMS IS GOING TO BE IN THE RED ZONE A LOT...he has shown what he can do....I have no problem with him anchoring my RB squad....he is is going to trip himself into double digit TD’s and a ton of big chunk running plays with teams backing off...
I for one will be one of those guys hoping to capitalize on all the “Mahomes regression” ....they can’t be that good again noise....give me every piece of the KC pie I can get....
I checked out how RBs finished in one of my PPR leagues last year and there was a 12-point difference between RB9 and RB12. 31 points between RB8 and RB13. The back end of the RB1 group should be clustered similarly this year, and it's not a stretch to say that any of those guys could or couldn't be in the top 10.Yes, knowing Hill won't be suspended takes away one of the deltas in comparison to last season.
I still think the KC offense will regress somewhat, and I suspect Williams will disappoint those who think he will be a top 10 fantasy RB. FantasyPros consensus rankings have him ranked #13 right now in PPR. I think that's about right, so those with that level of expectation should be fine.
Agreed.I checked out how RBs finished in one of my PPR leagues last year and there was a 12-point difference between RB9 and RB12. 31 points between RB8 and RB13. The back end of the RB1 group should be clustered similarly this year, and it's not a stretch to say that any of those guys could or couldn't be in the top 10.
Bottom line, even if you think he's rightly placed at RB13, he's well in the mix of guys who could finish anywhere from about RB6 to RB20. Take the guy you like or believe in the most.
In any discussion of rankings, IMO ppg > total points. I assume one reason for the narrow spreads you are citing is missed games by some of those players. What was the spread of ppg from RB9 to RB15, with a reasonable threshold of games played? (I would check one of my dynasty leagues but MFL is blocked at my company.)I checked out how RBs finished in one of my PPR leagues last year and there was a 12-point difference between RB9 and RB12. 31 points between RB8 and RB13. The back end of the RB1 group should be clustered similarly this year, and it's not a stretch to say that any of those guys could or couldn't be in the top 10.
Bottom line, even if you think he's rightly placed at RB13, he's well in the mix of guys who could finish anywhere from about RB6 to RB20. Take the guy you like or believe in the most.
Keep in mind, it isn't just injury to him that could create a problem. Every player you named could get injured, as could the OL, etc. Their offense was generally very healthy last season.Agreed.
I mean, I understand people saying the Chiefs offense is likely to regress, and perhaps so. But how much worse do you really think it's going to be? Mahomes is in his second full year, so he's only going to get better(scary thought). Hill, the most dangerous player in the NFL, is still on the team and will miss no time. They still have arguably the best TE in football dominating the middle of the field. Damien is going to be looking at soft boxes essentially every drive. Unless you just really don't believe in the player and that he's going to hang on to the job, I don't see any scenario outside of injury where he finishes outside the top 10.
It's not very far off of what I reported for points scored.Just Win Baby said:In any discussion of rankings, IMO ppg > total points. I assume one reason for the narrow spreads you are citing is missed games by some of those players. What was the spread of ppg from RB9 to RB15, with a reasonable threshold of games played? (I would check one of my dynasty leagues but MFL is blocked at my company.)
I'm saying I expect he will be around RB13 in ppg.
Hunt's PPG for 11 games was 20.93. Williams was 19.14 for his 5 starts. In comparison to the actual top 10 finishers...Just Win Baby said:In any discussion of rankings, IMO ppg > total points. I assume one reason for the narrow spreads you are citing is missed games by some of those players. What was the spread of ppg from RB9 to RB15, with a reasonable threshold of games played? (I would check one of my dynasty leagues but MFL is blocked at my company.)
I'm saying I expect he will be around RB13 in ppg.
Just Win Baby said:Keep in mind, it isn't just injury to him that could create a problem. Every player you named could get injured, as could the OL, etc. Their offense was generally very healthy last season.
I also think they face a more difficult schedule this season. All of these teams could have top 5-10 defenses: LAC x 2, JAX, BAL, IND, HOU, MIN, TEN, NE, CHI. KC plays 10 games against that group, and 8 of those games are against teams that played KC last season and may be better prepared to deal with the KC offense.
Williams played 4 of those teams - LAC, BAL, IND, NE. He had 20 receptions, 403 yards and 8 touchdowns in those 4 games, one of which he didn't even start. He had three touchdown in one quarter against the new England defense that held the rams out of the end zone the entire superbowl.Just Win Baby said:I also think they face a more difficult schedule this season. All of these teams could have top 5-10 defenses: LAC x 2, JAX, BAL, IND, HOU, MIN, TEN, NE, CHI.
Well, if he put up those numbers they'd be top 10 running back numbers. Not just this season, top ten all time. That's better than Gurley's fully healthy pace. I don't think it's realistic to project anyone to put up that kind of production.Part of me wonders if Damien's sample size is still on the small-ish side. Five games as a starter with the Chiefs, three regular season and two playoffs. 69 carries, 28 targets. His numbers extrapolated to 16 games come out to be 1830 total yards, 76 catches, 25 TD.
At face value, I'd automatically say TD regression is coming. But it's Mahomes and the Chiefs. Leaves me unsure. I feel like I'm still leaning toward regression.
NE tends to focus on the best playmaker on the other team and take him out of the equation. Williams doing this tells me that the Patriots weren't worried about him.Williams played 4 of those teams - LAC, BAL, IND, NE. He had 20 receptions, 403 yards and 8 touchdowns in those 4 games, one of which he didn't even start. He had three touchdown in one quarter against the new England defense that held the rams out of the end zone the entire superbowl.
I'm not suggesting that he'll average 5 catches, over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against all of those tough defenses - just that he actually did average 5 catches, over 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against every one of them that he faced.
Carlos Hyde, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: Given $700,000 guaranteed when he signed with the Chiefs, Hyde is a boom-or-bust fantasy pick. The Chiefs swear that Damien Williams is their starter and Hyde is his likely backup, but two previous teams have already soured on Hyde quicker than expected.
I'd guess this will be the case again in 2019. Mahomes/Hill/Kelce will continue to be the focus for most Ds.NE tends to focus on the best playmaker on the other team and take him out of the equation. Williams doing this tells me that the Patriots weren't worried about him.
Hopefully it's just tightness and nothing more.TOM MARTIN
@TomKCTV5
Damien Williams and Jordan Lucas did not finish practice due to hamstring injuries #Chiefs
Damien Williams (hamstring) did not practice Monday.
Williams left Sunday's practice early because of a hamstring injury and was not able to practice on Monday. There is no indication at this point Williams is dealing with a long-term issue, but soft-tissue injuries have a tendency to linger. Williams will be Kansas City's No. 1 back if he is healthy.
SOURCE: Matt Derrick on Twitter
Jul 29, 2019, 9:49 AM ET