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Damien Wiliams - RB - Oklahoma


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Bri,

Damien Williams has averaged 2.7 ypc on the year he has 3 runs on 1st down, 7 runs on 2nd down and 2 runs on 3rd down. What makes you think this will improve if he is running the ball in more obvious run situations?

Williams only has 12 rushing attempts so far this season and 8 of those runs have been when Miami needs 10+ yards for a 1st down. He has averaged 3.4 yards per carry on those 8 runs.. His two runs with 3 or less yards needed for a 1st down he has gained 1.5 yards.

Williams has a success rate of 25% on his 12 runs this year.

Jay Ajayi has averaged 3.4 ypc on the year he has 66 runs on 1st down 63 runs on 2nd down 9 runs on 3rd down. Obviously when Jay was on the field the team was expecting the run more on 1st and 2nd down, the majority of his runs. 96 of his 138 runs on plays when they needed 10+ yards for a 1st down he has gained 3.5 ypc on these runs (almost all of them on 1st and 2nd down).

Jay Ajayi has a success rate of 43% on his 138 runs this year. This is tied for 18th in the league or about average as far as success rate goes. 

Quote

A player with higher DVOA and a low success rate mixes long runs with downs getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage. A player with lower DVOA and a high success rate generally gets the yards needed, but doesn't often get more.

Jay Ajayi has a low DVOA but an average success rate, which means he is getting the yards one would expect for the down/distance and situation, not mixing in long runs to bring up his DVOA.

Ajayi longest run on the year is 21 yards.

There is no factual basis for your post in regards to this season.

Edited by Biabreakable
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Bad omen for Damien.

You are an intelligent, diligent and valuable poster. But you're coming across as wearing heavy Williams-colored glasses, starting the last couple weeks, and much more so after yesterday's game. You'r

A lot.  It happens.  But it's lazy analysis to just ask that one question. When was the last time you saw someone in kc emerge late in the previous season and be hailed as a high draft pick

On 11/2/2017 at 5:29 PM, Biabreakable said:

 

There is no factual basis for your post in regards to this season.

 

all you did was state carries per down. That's not what I said at all

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26 minutes ago, Bri said:

all you did was state carries per down. That's not what I said at all

No read what I said again.

What you said is that Ajayi was causing boom or bust plays. That is not the case at all which I detailed in my previous post. Jay Ajayi was giving the Dolphins more successful runs than Damien WIlliams was which is what I already laid out.

To be clear 43% success rate > than 25% success rate.

The 3 successful runs by Williams on 1st and 10 were likely somewhat of a surprise to the defense as he hasn't really been used as a runner in those situations much, only 3 times prior to yesterdays games. 75% of Williams runs were on 2nd and 3rd down when the defense was not expecting a run, and Willaims was not particularly good in those more favorable situations either. Not as good as Ajayi.

Now without Ajayi Williams had 7 rushing attempts for 14 yards and a long of 4 yards. That is not better than what Ajayi was doing for them.

Edited by Biabreakable
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1 hour ago, Biabreakable said:

 

Now without Ajayi Williams had 7 rushing attempts for 14 yards and a long of 4 yards. That is not better than what Ajayi was doing for them.

 

Never said they would do better. Collectively they were fine. Good solid performance by the two backs against a curiously talented and underperforming Raiders team. Drake got the rush yards and Williams got the receiving yards. Combined, it's a totally solid performance.

Your stats aren't in reply or disagreeing. They're totals and you're trying to reply with averages. I've said the totals appear fine. Run it a different way-Ayaji had 60 carries of 2 yards or less and 80 of > than that

There's been a lot of backs like Ayaji in this regard. They run into a line and do nothing to almost nothing X number of times and then they break one for a nice gain, then do it again....over n over. It's not for every OL and doesn't always mesh up with the grunt mindset or continuity or even long drives. As I said earlier, it's different to have this committee get 3 ypc and almost 3 each time rather than Ayaji getting 0,1,2,1, 14, 1,2,1,12. etc.

Did you notice how much better the line played as the game wore on? And that was against one of the better LB corps in football.

Watch how many third and longs Wentz gets put into now that Ayaji is there. Blount and Clement were meh, but similarly they got 3 yards most carries and it's something to work with. Backs like Ayaji are not for every team

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What I am saying Bri is that you 60 carries of 2 yards is NOT factually correct. That isn't what Ajayi was doing. You are parroting what Gase said and what Peter King and others were saying Ajayi was doing and those statements are not backed up by the facts.

You seem convinced that this is true by your statements, when it actually isn't true.

Jay Ajayi led the league in yards after contact last year and a majority of his yards for the Dolphins this year were after contact as well. That isnt just running into the line for 2 yards the way you describe it at all. That description more accurately fits what Williams has done as a runner than Jay Ajayi.

You also have this misconception that the Raiders are a good defense or something which they are not.

Your whole narrative about Ajayi is wrong!!

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Generally liked what I saw last night, although it's hard not to have my overall opinion shaped by his TD. Reminds me a little of the Oakland situation with Richard/Washington when the lead back is out: They both have some value, but they also each limit each other's upside.

So what are we thinking of him next week vs. Carolina? Due to byes, I have a decision to make between Williams and Cohen. One starts, the other gets cut. I feel like Williams is more likely to get a decent workload, but the match-up isn't great.

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3 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

What I am saying Bri is that you 60 carries of 2 yards is NOT factually correct. That isn't what Ajayi was doing. You are parroting what Gase said and what Peter King and others were saying Ajayi was doing and those statements are not backed up by the facts.

You seem convinced that this is true by your statements, when it actually isn't true.

Jay Ajayi led the league in yards after contact last year and a majority of his yards for the Dolphins this year were after contact as well. That isnt just running into the line for 2 yards the way you describe it at all. That description more accurately fits what Williams has done as a runner than Jay Ajayi.

You also have this misconception that the Raiders are a good defense or something which they are not.

Your whole narrative about Ajayi is wrong!!

No it's not. You haven't been able to follow along since the beginning and keep replying with stats that have nothing to do with what I said. He led the league in yards after contact last year doesn't have a thing to do with what I said. 

67 rushes of 2 yards or less with the Fins 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=summary&player_id_hint=Jay+Ajayi&player_id_select=Jay+Ajayi&player_id=AjayJa00&idx=players_pbp&year_min=2017&year_max=2017&team_id=mia&game_type=R&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter[]=1&quarter[]=2&quarter[]=3&quarter[]=4&quarter[]=5&tr_gtlt=lt&minutes=15&seconds=0&down[]=0&down[]=1&down[]=2&down[]=3&down[]=4&yg_gtlt=lt&yards=2&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_max_field=team&type[]=RUSH&no_play=N&turnover_type[]=interception&turnover_type[]=fumble&score_type[]=touchdown&score_type[]=field_goal&score_type[]=safety&rush_direction[]=LE&rush_direction[]=LT&rush_direction[]=LG&rush_direction[]=M&rush_direction[]=RG&rush_direction[]=RT&rush_direction[]=RE&pass_location[]=SL&pass_location[]=SM&pass_location[]=SR&pass_location[]=DL&pass_location[]=DM&pass_location[]=DR&order_by=yards

He ran 146 times

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AjayJa00.htm

I guessed 60 below 2 yards and 80 greater than 2 yards, nine posts above.

 

I didn't say the Raiders were a good defense. It just illustrates further that you're not following along. I complimented their LB corps

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Ok Bri I stand corrected. Jay Ajayi had 48.5% of his runs for 2 yards or less with Miami this year. To me that seems pretty high, but I've never really looked at it like this.

I did this search and found that there have been 3258 rushing attempts of 2 yards or less across the league. The only team with fewer runs for 2 yards or less than Ajayi was the Green Bay Packers.

Scrolling down to offense you can sort all of the players by rushing attempts. Turns out the LeVeon Bell has the most rushing attempts for 2 yards or less with 84, Kareem Hunt is second with 76, Melvin Gordon 74, Ajayi is tied with Jordan Howard with 70 (yes this is inconsistent with your search of 67) and so on.

Damien Williams has 11 rushing attempts of 2 yards or less out of 19 rushing attempts 58% of his runs.

Kenyan Drake has 10 rushing attempts of 2 yards or less out of 19 rushing attempts 53%

So it turns out that Williams and Drake have a higher percentage of their runs going for 2 yards or less than Ajayi does, despite the fact that they don't have many rushing attempts at all, and defenses probably less focused on stopping the run when they are in there.

Considering that some of the best RB in the league such as Bell and Hunt have more rushing attempts of 2 yards or less, I am not sure how useful this criteria is?

Without the context of down and distance its somewhat incomplete in my opinion compared to success rate. For example When the Steelers played the Vikings I know Bell had several rushing attempts where they only needed 2 or less yards to convert the first down and that he converted several of these runs for first downs, even though he gained less than two yards on these runs.

If there is anything wrong with my search please let me know.

eta - The reason that Jay Ajayi has 70 total runs of 2 yards or less is because he added 3 more with the Eagles that did not show up in your search. Different team.

Edited by Biabreakable
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  • 1 year later...
8 minutes ago, Rove! said:

Anything to see here?

He's barely had any carries on the year... I would think the Chiefs start breaking him in this week, it's not like Ware plays 100% of the snaps. I'd expect to see some Tyreek Hill in the backfield as well as Anthony Sherman and Darrell Williams.

 

Chiefs RB Depth Chart

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29 minutes ago, ragone said:

I've got a empty roster spot and have waffled between adding damien or Darrell.. ugh

I added Darrel. Played second fiddle to Guice, but looks pretty good & has some ability. He's a bruiser with decent feet & seems to be a legit receiver.

Something tells me KC might really like this kid since they've kept 4 RBs & didn't risk putting him on the PS.

Edited by Football Jones
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4 hours ago, beerbuff said:

If you had handcuffed Hunt you should now handcuff Ware. Williams could be flex worthy gold in week 16 if KC rests its starters.

That's some serious speculation there...by that logic then Mahomes and the rest of KC offense will also be on the sidelines...going up against the Seahawks' defense in Seattle. No thanks.

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4 hours ago, beerbuff said:

If you had handcuffed Hunt you should now handcuff Ware. Williams could be flex worthy gold in week 16 if KC rests its starters.

I am skeptical he can be fantasy gold if they rest starters and that includes Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce.

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So, according to the posts above, it’s Darrel > Damien? Or don’t bother/look elsewhere? Like ragone, I’m going back and forth on who to get to handcuff Ware, if I do so. Not a lot of info to go by right now. 

 

Btw, if KC does rest it’s starters in week 16, I will be looking elsewhere as well. 

Edited by Mario Wario
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I've been watching a bunch. I thought the Chiefs need a dump option and Hunt would need breathers. It hasn't happened. Mahomes fires it to someone short and all in all they score too darn quick for anyone to need a breather. It's incredible how many TDs they have that haven't taken much time. 

Williams barely got any work. Reid doesn't seem to have confidence in him either. 

DeAnthony Thomas was a college RB and the Chiefs had too many RBs so he converted to WR but still looks every bit like a RB. He's been there for some time and that would be the guy Reid has confidence in and that could be a third down back, but he went on IR a month ago IIRC.

Charcandrick was released prior to the season.  He earned Reid's confidence and all but he got beat out. If he was there, I'd handcuff him to Ware. If he's signed, I'd give it a week and do that too.

The  Eagles have curiously stayed the same with their backs since he left. That's the same model there. A guy gets a bit of carries but til he earns the confidence, he's just part of a share and not worth a thing in FF. 

As I wrote in the beginning, Mahomes just fires short to the WRs or threads the needle to the TE. Their method has not been to pretend they have David Meggett...or too all you young guys-Dion Lewis. 

If you've got a spot to burn, I can see the logic and it's worth a shot. I'm just highly doubtful it pans out

ETA the trust or confidence I mentioned- you're talking of protecting "the franchise" at QB and keeping drives alive on third down. I don't at all see Reid with that confidence in Williams

 

Edited by Bri
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  • 2 weeks later...

ware (doubtful) likely out. 

my guess.... Damian slides in to ware's role as lead RB with Shark West playing on 3rd downs (the role damien was in the last two weeks)?  right? if there are quotes from reid that say other than everyone will play post em here.

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PPR Ware owner here, when I heard the news yesterday I decided I wasn't even gonna go pick up Williams as I don't know what his workload will be, and I can play Conner/Samuels instead on Sunday.

Then on the way home, I decided I should grab him at least just to play defense against my opponent.

Now I kind of want to start him.

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2 minutes ago, The Finist said:

Anyone seen player prop bets on Williams?  O/U yards?  Scores TD?

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/12/12/thursday-night-football-odds-and-best-bets-chargers-chiefs

Williams is -125 to score anytime at online betting sites and +700 to hit paydirt first, the same odds as Jackson. Both players might be worth a wager now to get better numbers than if and when Gordon and Ware are ruled out too.

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35 minutes ago, mbuehner said:

The weather adds another wrinkle. High winds and freezing rain. Should mean good sledding for Williams, but who knows.

12 mph , cloudy ? 

http://www.nflweather.com/en/game/2018/week-15/chargers-at-chiefs

Is this site reliable? 

 

:shrug:

 

ETA: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/USMO0460:1:US

 

Edited by Cowboysfan8
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1 hour ago, Skoo said:

PPR Ware owner here, when I heard the news yesterday I decided I wasn't even gonna go pick up Williams as I don't know what his workload will be, and I can play Conner/Samuels instead on Sunday.

Then on the way home, I decided I should grab him at least just to play defense against my opponent.

Now I kind of want to start him.

I am not especially confident Williams will put up good numbers tonight.  Although he could have 20+ touches and a couple TDs, it would be no major surprise if he puts up a stat line of 40-60 yards and 0 TDs.  Depending on your opponent's other options, I might have let Williams slip through to him and force your opponent to make the difficult decision of whether to start Williams.

I will be watching another Williams, Darrell Williams, with great dynasty interest tonight.  He is a no-nonsense runner in the mold of Spencer Ware, with excellent hands and great ball security.  I believe he has as good a chance as any of the currently-rostered Chiefs' backs to emerge as the lead back for the future.

FYI:  I live an hour from Arrowhead.  The weather here is overcast, but no rain, and I have heard nothing about freezing rain tonight.

Edited by socrates
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5 minutes ago, socrates said:

FYI:  I live an hour from Arrowhead.  The weather here is overcast, but no rain, and I have heard nothing about freezing rain tonight.

So as a local, any feeling on how the split between RBs will go tonight?

My worry is how many touches he gets, if I knew he was getting 20 he'd be an auto-start.

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12 minutes ago, socrates said:

I am not especially confident Williams will put up good numbers tonight.  Although he could have 20+ touches and a couple TDs, it would be no major surprise if he puts up a stat line of 40-60 yards and 0 TDs.  Depending on your opponent's other options, I might have let Williams slip through to him and force your opponent to make the difficult decision of whether to start Williams.

I will be watching another Williams, Darrell Williams, with great dynasty interest tonight.  He is a no-nonsense runner in the mold of Spencer Ware, with excellent hands and great ball security.  I believe he has as good a chance as any of the currently-rostered Chiefs' backs to emerge as the lead back for the future.

FYI:  I live an hour from Arrowhead.  The weather here is overcast, but no rain, and I have heard nothing about freezing rain tonight.

Anything wind wise?

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On 12/1/2018 at 11:10 AM, Bri said:

I've been watching a bunch. I thought the Chiefs need a dump option and Hunt would need breathers. It hasn't happened. Mahomes fires it to someone short and all in all they score too darn quick for anyone to need a breather. It's incredible how many TDs they have that haven't taken much time. 

Williams barely got any work. Reid doesn't seem to have confidence in him either. 

DeAnthony Thomas was a college RB and the Chiefs had too many RBs so he converted to WR but still looks every bit like a RB. He's been there for some time and that would be the guy Reid has confidence in and that could be a third down back, but he went on IR a month ago IIRC.

Charcandrick was released prior to the season.  He earned Reid's confidence and all but he got beat out. If he was there, I'd handcuff him to Ware. If he's signed, I'd give it a week and do that too.

The  Eagles have curiously stayed the same with their backs since he left. That's the same model there. A guy gets a bit of carries but til he earns the confidence, he's just part of a share and not worth a thing in FF. 

As I wrote in the beginning, Mahomes just fires short to the WRs or threads the needle to the TE. Their method has not been to pretend they have David Meggett...or too all you young guys-Dion Lewis. 

If you've got a spot to burn, I can see the logic and it's worth a shot. I'm just highly doubtful it pans out

ETA the trust or confidence I mentioned- you're talking of protecting "the franchise" at QB and keeping drives alive on third down. I don't at all see Reid with that confidence in Williams

 

Bri just curious if you still think West is the handcuff.

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1 minute ago, Skoo said:

So as a local, any feeling on how the split between RBs will go tonight?

My worry is how many touches he gets, if I knew he was getting 20 he'd be an auto-start.

Damien Williams should get the lions' share of touches.  Charcandrick West went from street free agent to backup only a couple weeks ago, and while he is familiar with the offense, I don't expect him to play a major role in this game.  Darrel Williams has only a handful of touches on the season.  There is always a chance that West or Darrel Williams impresses and earns a bigger role, but Andy Reid tends to stick with one featured back.  My bigger concern is that the Chiefs just lean on the passing game even more if the running game struggles.

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2 minutes ago, socrates said:

Damien Williams should get the lions' share of touches.  Charcandrick West went from street free agent to backup only a couple weeks ago, and while he is familiar with the offense, I don't expect him to play a major role in this game.  Darrel Williams has only a handful of touches on the season.  There is always a chance that West or Darrel Williams impresses and earns a bigger role, but Andy Reid tends to stick with one featured back.  My bigger concern is that the Chiefs just lean on the passing game even more if the running game struggles.

Thanks for the insight! Appreciate it!

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