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WR A.J. Green, ARZ (2 Viewers)

ZWK said:
In 2017 Green had the lowest yards per game of his career (67 ypg, when his previous low was 70 ypg and his previous average was 83 ypg), and also the lowest yards per target of his career (7.5 ypt, when his previous low was 8.0 ypt and his previous average was 8.9 ypt). He turns 30 in July. How worried should we be?
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Honest question: what are the numbers when we factor in he only played 15 snaps in one game before being ejected? I imagine still pretty low, but Dalton and the Bengals O'line were particularly atrocious this past year.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
Less concerned about AJG than the Bengals offense collectively. 30 isn’t old for elite WRs. 
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And it's not JUST the offense either. If there's a slow start I wouldn't be shocked if they start firing people and turn this into a complete rebuild. AJ Green still looked good to me, he just seemed frustrated and distracted last season(I'm guessing the team going in the wrong direction is contributing to that). 

Just too many busts on highly drafted offensive players. First rounders on Ross, Ogbuehi, Eifert. Second rounders on Mixon(too early to tell but many have been disappointed), Boyd, Fisher, Hill(departed). That's just too many early picks on offense to produce what they do. Maybe the QB deserves much of the blame but that OL just has to get better. Here's hoping Glenn stays healthy and Fisher starts playing as well as I expected him to play when they drafted him. It's a shame when you see a guy wasting the end of his prime. It's kind of starting to remind me of an Andre Johnson situation.

 
Buckna said:
Honest question: what are the numbers when we factor in he only played 15 snaps in one game before being ejected? I imagine still pretty low, but Dalton and the Bengals O'line were particularly atrocious this past year.
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Wasn't it a late second quarter ejection? If we count the season as 15.5 games then it was still his lowest ypg. Also worth noting that his previous low of 70 ypg was as a rookie and he had been over 80 ypg in every season since then.

cloppbeast said:
It was also Andy Dalton's worst year since he was a rookie. The o-line played pretty horrible and the qb was running for his life most plays, many times forced to throw away or make passes in not ideal situations. It's not like Dalton is the most physically gifted to begin with. I don't know if the Bengals have improved with FA, or they will with the draft, so I'd be concerned of more of the same out of Bengals as much as with a decline from AJ Green. Correct me if I'm wrong, but most receivers don't start to seriously fall-off until their mid-30's. For example, Brandon Marshall had his statistically best season at age 31, and Larry Fitzgerald is still producing in his year 34. 
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Greg Jennings had his last big season at age 28. Marques Colston at 29. Calvin Johnson at 30. Torry Holt, Brandon Marshall, and Chad Johnson at 31. Randy Moss and Andre Johnson at 32. Anquan Boldin and Hines Ward at 33. Larry Fitzgerald at 34 (and counting). Steve Smith at 36.

Many of these ages would be earlier if we looked at last huge season - Steve Smith's last huge season was at age 32, Moss's at age 30, Chad Johnson's at 29, Calvin's at 28, Boldin's at 26.

So this would be earlyish for Green to decline, but still within the typical distribution, especially if it's only a partial decline (with a couple more years left similar to his 2017).

 
Not sure why people would be that worried about Green. Even on a bad year he finished WR10 in the couple PPR leagues I'm in. Sure you can probably look at him and say he might only have 2-3 more dominant years with a couple more decent years after that but he's still a guy you can get somewhat later that is pretty much a lock for top 15 and I still think he has top 5 potential. He most likely doesn't hit that potential because Lewis is still the HC but if the Bengals decide to make sure to include him in the game plan every game there is a good chance

 
ZWK said:
Wasn't it a late second quarter ejection? If we count the season as 15.5 games then it was still his lowest ypg. Also worth noting that his previous low of 70 ypg was as a rookie and he had been over 80 ypg in every season since then.

Greg Jennings had his last big season at age 28. Marques Colston at 29. Calvin Johnson at 30. Torry Holt, Brandon Marshall, and Chad Johnson at 31. Randy Moss and Andre Johnson at 32. Anquan Boldin and Hines Ward at 33. Larry Fitzgerald at 34 (and counting). Steve Smith at 36.

Many of these ages would be earlier if we looked at last huge season - Steve Smith's last huge season was at age 32, Moss's at age 30, Chad Johnson's at 29, Calvin's at 28, Boldin's at 26.

So this would be earlyish for Green to decline, but still within the typical distribution, especially if it's only a partial decline (with a couple more years left similar to his 2017).
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I'm thinking he's sort of like a used Subaru. Still not worth a trading for a new Kia. 

 
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What do you think he is worth in terms of draft capital?  I may be able to get him for the 1.6.  Seems about the right value to me for a team that can contend for the next few years.

 
ZWK said:
Wasn't it a late second quarter ejection? If we count the season as 15.5 games then it was still his lowest ypg. Also worth noting that his previous low of 70 ypg was as a rookie and he had been over 80 ypg in every season since then.

Greg Jennings had his last big season at age 28. Left Green Bay, a product of Rodgers. Marques Colston at 29. Multiple knee injuries among others. Calvin Johnson at 30. why even include him since he retired early? Torry Holt, Brandon Marshall, and Chad Johnson at 31 1st solid examples of declining skills, they also switched teams in latter part of their career. Randy Moss and Andre Johnson at 32. Anquan Boldin and Hines Ward at 33. Larry Fitzgerald at 34 (and counting). Steve Smith at 36.

Many of these ages would be earlier if we looked at last huge season - Steve Smith's last huge season was at age 32, Moss's at age 30, Chad Johnson's at 29, Calvin's at 28, Boldin's at 26.

So this would be earlyish for Green to decline, but still within the typical distribution, especially if it's only a partial decline (with a couple more years left similar to his 2017).
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I don't really see most of your examples for early decline as comps for many of the reasons above. Green has stayed healthy the majority of his career and does not seem an early retirement risk. Boldin still put up numbers until he was 34 and had he not decided to sign with the Ravens and have "I can't throw for more than 3400 yards" Flacco throwing to him his year 30~32 seasons would have been much better numbers-wise. Calvin played 13 games (two of which he was a decoy) his year 29 season and still managed a top 10 finish, the next year in hindsight he clearly had lost his love of the game due to his early retirement after the season was over. Holt & Ocho Cinco definitely showed signs of decline although it didn't help they were stuck on crappy teams and then were past their prime when they left for others. Marshall still had skills but spent his latter years in two god-awful passing offenses in Miami & NY.

Even if Green's skills are already in decline this early, while was a physical specimen, he is also a well-polished and all round accomplished technician that should allow him to age well. I'm more worried about a terrible Bengal's team that foolishly let two pro-bowl linemen walk last year and has done nothing to replace them. As well as the fact that they haven't fired Marv after all these years of underachievement.

 
ChuckLiddell said:
What do you think he is worth in terms of draft capital?  I may be able to get him for the 1.6.  Seems about the right value to me for a team that can contend for the next few years.
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i have Green and would move him for that in a heartbeat. i'm a rebuild here and that certainly comes into play. 

i think he's likely in decline. it's certainly possible that he gets a boost with the OC there but i don't see anything to get too excited about. they haven't done much to help him, quite frankly, and expecting Dalton to *make* him better somehow seems like . risky proposition.

 
saintfool said:
i have Green and would move him for that in a heartbeat. i'm a rebuild here and that certainly comes into play. 

i think he's likely in decline. it's certainly possible that he gets a boost with the OC there but i don't see anything to get too excited about. they haven't done much to help him, quite frankly, and expecting Dalton to *make* him better somehow seems like . risky proposition.
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According to the mocks at Mizelle, 1.06 is the #64 overall pick in a dynasty startup.  Green is #19, and 1.02 (Guice) is #26.

YMMV and all that noise, but I can't see any reason to give away Green for just the 1.06.

 
tangfoot said:
According to the mocks at Mizelle, 1.06 is the #64 overall pick in a dynasty startup.  Green is #19, and 1.02 (Guice) is #26.

YMMV and all that noise, but I can't see any reason to give away Green for just the 1.06.
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i should have prefaced my statement by saying it's a salary cap dyno league with annual increases.

 
I didn’t get to watch many a bengals games last year, so my question is there any signs of a physical decline?  A bad year /= decline to me. 

 
ChuckLiddell said:
What do you think he is worth in terms of draft capital?  I may be able to get him for the 1.6.  Seems about the right value to me for a team that can contend for the next few years.
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I'd move 1.06 for AJ Green. Would be especially eager if I'm a "now" contender as opposed to rebuild. He's got multiple top 10 seasons left and is incredibly consistent. He is already what you hope 1.06 becomes.

 
Andrew74 said:
I didn’t get to watch many a bengals games last year, so my question is there any signs of a physical decline?  A bad year /= decline to me. 
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This may be a little hot takeish, but as a Bengals fan I thought there was more of a mental decline than physical. Last year was the first time we’ve seen AJ do the normal prima donna WR stuff. Pouting when he isn’t involved... making mistakes/drops when they finally get around to using him because he’s upset.... blaming others (granted offense was brutal around him)....and of course the blow up in the Jags game.  It just felt like every week we were saying AJ was doing something “out of character” for how he has been his whole career. 

It does have an impact on stats. If you need ideal conditions to not just go away and pout you become less reliable as we’ve seen with numerous WR examples. 

 
cheese said:
This may be a little hot takeish, but as a Bengals fan I thought there was more of a mental decline than physical. Last year was the first time we’ve seen AJ do the normal prima donna WR stuff. Pouting when he isn’t involved... making mistakes/drops when they finally get around to using him because he’s upset.... blaming others (granted offense was brutal around him)....and of course the blow up in the Jags game.  It just felt like every week we were saying AJ was doing something “out of character” for how he has been his whole career. 

It does have an impact on stats. If you need ideal conditions to not just go away and pout you become less reliable as we’ve seen with numerous WR examples. 
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His whole career is on a team with no chance of making the Supsr Bowl. How would you like to lose in the playoffs year after year and the HC is still there?

 
Why did it take me 40 ####### years to find this thread..

If I remember correctly, according to Warren Sharp, Green only lined up in the slot on ~10% of his snaps last year. What I noticed on his first reception in the preseason is that it came from out of the slot. What everyone also probably noticed is that Lazor is applying an up-tempo approach to the offensive after ranking dead last in plays per game last year(57.9). When Lazor was the OC in MIA in 2014/15 they averaged 65 and 61.1 plays per game respectively. Lazor skews towards the pass as well, ranking 9th, 4th and 14th in pass play percentage so far as the OC for MIA and CIN.

I'm also expecting Green's supporting cast to be improved from last year. Ross and Eifert (for as long as he stays healthy) will demand attention. The further maturation of Mixon an improved OL will also help keep defenses honest and Green's situation as a whole.

What I'm trying to say that if Green continues to command a 25-30% market share and continues to fall within the margin of his career marks in catch percentage and yard per reception, he could be in for a monster year. We could see numbers akin to his 2012 (164 targets, 97/1350/11) and 2013 (180 targets, 98/1426/11) seasons. 

 
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I still have a hard time seeing him outperforming his adp, but your post does have me re-thinking his median outcome and thinking that he may be ok value where he is currently going.

 
Seems like a steal to me at his ADP.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#yards

His cushion, separation, yards/target, and target share are all on par with Hopkins.  His catch rate declined but I think that was due to offensive scheme and QB play, if anything.

I think people are forgetting that the Bengals changed their entire offense two games into the season last year.  That clearly had an affect on their scoring ability. Not to mention the o-line, TE, RBs, and even their next best WR were pretty much all hot garbage.  

Fitzgerald had three years of worse production than that when he was 29-31 (same age as Green).  That was due to an incompetent offense, not his individual play. 

I'm not worried at all and will happily snag him in the back of round two or get him for half the price of Brown in auctions.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
I still have a hard time seeing him outperforming his adp, but your post does have me re-thinking his median outcome and thinking that he may be ok value where he is currently going.
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It's going to be pretty hard to extract any value out the first two rounds. Really all you're trying to do is mitigate risk while avoiding that ~50% of players drafted in the top 12 of their respective position who will likely bust. I won't pretend like I know who that's going to be but at least Green offers a relatively safe floor when healthy. But what is really jumping out at me is the confluence of factors I mentioned that give him top 3 upside IMO. Ultimately he checks off the two most important boxes (safe floor, sky high ceiling) that my early round picks need to check off in order for me to target them. 

 
Took him at 21 as well. Ahead of Hill in best ball and I regret it. I don’t think I’ve ever drafted him since he’s been in the league now that I think about it. 

 
SameSongNDance said:
It's going to be pretty hard to extract any value out the first two rounds. Really all you're trying to do is mitigate risk while avoiding that ~50% of players drafted in the top 12 of their respective position who will likely bust. I won't pretend like I know who that's going to be but at least Green offers a relatively safe floor when healthy. But what is really jumping out at me is the confluence of factors I mentioned that give him top 3 upside IMO. Ultimately he checks off the two most important boxes (safe floor, sky high ceiling) that my early round picks need to check off in order for me to target them. 
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I get what you are saying about it being difficult to extract value, but I guess it depends on which tier he is in.  I had not really considered that he could be a top 3 WR.  I suppose that the biggest limiting factor to me is Dalton.  Green's catch rate fell to 52% last year, and from what I recall in watching the games, I think a lot of that had to do with Dalton throwing bad balls.  On the other hand, it is possible that the OL upgrades this year will help Dalton throw better balls.  But either way, it is hard for me to see Green jumping that high, although it is fair to say that he has the talent.  I like Adams less as a player, but I feel like the path for him to even be even WR #1 is clearer (though GB will spread it around).

You do have me re-thinking it, though and based on my draft slot coming up this week, it looks like I will have him available (18th).  Thomas and Allen seem to be dropping a bit in ADP as some RBs rise.

So where do you see Green as compared Thomas, Allen, Adams, Evans (and even Hill and Hilton, although I would consider them the next tier).

I think Thomas clearly has to be ahead.  I think that Adams and Evans have a lower floor, even though I might consider their likelihood of being a top 3 WR higher than Green's.  Allen is the tough one for me, though I suspect that his ceiling will be a bit capped by Mike Williams entering and generally not being as explosive as Green.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
I get what you are saying about it being difficult to extract value, but I guess it depends on which tier he is in.  I had not really considered that he could be a top 3 WR.  I suppose that the biggest limiting factor to me is Dalton.  Green's catch rate fell to 52% last year, and from what I recall in watching the games, I think a lot of that had to do with Dalton throwing bad balls.  On the other hand, it is possible that the OL upgrades this year will help Dalton throw better balls.  But either way, it is hard for me to see Green jumping that high, although it is fair to say that he has the talent.  I like Adams less as a player, but I feel like the path for him to even be even WR #1 is clearer (though GB will spread it around).

You do have me re-thinking it, though and based on my draft slot coming up this week, it looks like I will have him available (18th).  Thomas and Allen seem to be dropping a bit in ADP as some RBs rise.

So where do you see Green as compared Thomas, Allen, Adams, Evans (and even Hill and Hilton, although I would consider them the next tier).

I think Thomas clearly has to be ahead.  I think that Adams and Evans have a lower floor, even though I might consider their likelihood of being a top 3 WR higher than Green's.  Allen is the tough one for me, though I suspect that his ceiling will be a bit capped by Mike Williams entering and generally not being as explosive as Green.
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Green

Thomas

Evans

Allen

Adams

I am risk aversive in the early stages of building a team. Green is the most reliably productive, although I wouldn’t fight you on Thomas. Even with Dalton Green has been really, really good.

 
Ack88 said:
Green

Thomas

Evans

Allen

Adams

I am risk aversive in the early stages of building a team. Green is the most reliably productive, although I wouldn’t fight you on Thomas. Even with Dalton Green has been really, really good.
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Same as you. Green is the most reliable 

 
Ack88 said:
Green

Thomas

Evans

Allen

Adams

I am risk aversive in the early stages of building a team. Green is the most reliably productive, although I wouldn’t fight you on Thomas. Even with Dalton Green has been really, really good.
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Wow I’m almost opposite. Just to throw in another opinion I have it:

Allen

Adams

Thomas

Green

Evans

I see Allen with the highest ceiling because he is just a target monster and should get more red zone looks now that the TD monster is gone and there is no real talent at TE. 

I think Adams could put up 15+ TD’s with a healthy Rodgers and now his dropsies appear to be somewhat rectified.

I have Thomas as a keeper and he is as solid as they come. Funny how so many people were so upset with him last year because he doesn’t look like he is killing it because he doesn’t have monster games he has a stat line similar to the Fitz’s of the world and his Top 10 finish “feels” like ~20. 

Green I have never had on a team so I know the least about but he seems to quietly put up monster years without much talk surrounding him. Dalton certainly doesn’t help his case any but he is a decent QB and looks AJ’s way all the time. 

Evans I had last year and ended up trading away for the rights to Kamara this year. Love the kid and although I don’t hate Winston he could do better with a more accurate QB. I just think he has the lowest floor and TB is just a huge bunch of underachievers. I thought they were going to kill it last year and they fell flat on their face. 

Sorry that got a little long winded and OT, haha. But I totally understand your listing from a risk aversion standpoint. 

 
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Elevencents said:
Wow I’m almost opposite. Just to throw in another opinion I have it:

Allen

Adams

Thomas

Green

Evans

I see Allen with the highest ceiling because he is just a target monster and should get more red zone looks now that the TD monster is gone and there is no real talent at TE. 

I think Adams could put up 15+ TD’s with a healthy Rodgers and now his dropsies appear to be somewhat rectified.

I have Thomas as a keeper and he is as solid as they come. Funny how so many people were so upset with him last year because he doesn’t look like he is killing it because he doesn’t have monster games he has a stat line similar to the Fitz’s of the world and his Top 10 finish “feels” like ~20. 

Green I have never had on a team so I know the least about but he seems to quietly put up monster years without much talk surrounding him. Dalton certainly doesn’t help his case any but he is a decent QB and looks AJ’s way all the time. 

Evans I had last year and ended up trading away for the rights to Kamara this year. Love the kid and although I don’t hate Winston he could do better with a more accurate QB. I just think he has the lowest floor and TB is just a huge bunch of underachievers. I thought they were going to kill it last year and they fell flat on their face. 

Sorry that got a little long winded and OT, haha. But I totally understand your listing from a risk aversion standpoint. 
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That's why this is fun. A great example of what the SP is at its' best.

 
A.J. Green caught 4-of-5 targets for 50 yards and one touchdown in the Bengals' third preseason game against the Bills on Sunday.

Buffalo used CB Tre'Davious White to shadow Green, but the superstar wideout handled White with relative ease, scoring a 14-yard touchdown and having his way out there. Although his weekly consistency is often lacking, Green has finished as a top-12 wideout in fantasy points per game in 7-of-7 seasons. He warrants re-draft consideration anywhere in the second round.

Aug 26 - 5:21 PM
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flapgreen said:
Took at pick 21, ahead of Evans, Hilton, Mccoy in ppr
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Had the 3rd pick in Footballguys Players Championship yesterday. I admit Green isn't a sexy pick, but a safe pick with occasional big games. First 5 rounds:

Bell

Green at 22

Collins - per Bloom target

Ingram - ditto

Cooks

What I did notice about this league (haven't played it since 2014) is with two superflex positions you need viable players to fill both of those spots versus getting a back up QB too early like even the 13th - 15th rounds - better to wait a tad more. I think this cost me because I have to wait on Ingram meaning players like Chris Godwin and Tyler Lockett have to pick up the slack in the beginning. We'll see... 

 
Ended up with A.J. in most of my drafts.   Seemed like people were undervaluing him or I was overvaluing him.  Tonight I declare it was... the former!

 
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A.J. Green caught 5-of-9 targets for 69 yards and three touchdowns in the Bengals' Week 2 win over the Ravens.

Coupled with his score from Week 1, Green is now halfway to his 2017 touchdown total five days into the season. Green's first three catches all went for scores. The second was the highlight. Green caught a quick slant, shed a few tackles and was off to the races for 32 yards. The third was just too easy as Marlon Humphrey played laughably soft coverage in the end zone. Green will do battle with the Panthers' zone defense in Week 3.

Sep 13 - 11:49 PM
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I have never had this guy on any of my teams before. I took him at the 1st/2nd round turn in my one person keeper league. I was not very happy about it honestly. I’m clearly a moron. That’s all.

 
Second straight year of having AJ, great to see his TDs are normalizing somewhat. Even though Ross/Boyd will see more work and Eifert is back, Andy knows who butters his bread.

 
Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is "very optimistic" on A.J. Green's (groin) Week 4 status.

Green's groin issue is an aggravation of a college injury. There hasn't been much concern from the Bengals on Green, who was at one point considered probable to return last week. Barring setbacks, Green looks like a good bet to play Sunday.
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Bayhawks said:
Not challenging you; just doesn't make sense to me that he has aggravated an injury from 8 years ago, that's all.
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Oh yeah it happens a lot. You have a severe injury in college that heals but never feels 100%, so when you move a certain way you're susceptible to tweaking it or aggravating it.

 
The Frankman said:
Oh yeah it happens a lot. You have a severe injury in college that heals but never feels 100%, so when you move a certain way you're susceptible to tweaking it or aggravating it.
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Yeah, but don't you think he'd have done this as some point prior to this (or has he, and I just haven't noticed)?

 
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