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Adrian Peterson Status Updates (1 Viewer)

travdogg said:
Last year was also the only time Ingram ever played 16 games. Peterson at the very least is a big upgrade from Hightower. I think its entirely possible that Peterson becomes the GL back. 8-10 TD's is absolutely on the table, 1,000 yards isn't likely, but not impossible given Ingram's durability. 700-5 feels like a reasonable floor for Peterson. As is RB3 stats. 

Let's remember too, that Peterson has seen nothing but 8-man fronts for 90% of his career, he'll never see one again in New Orleans. His YPC is likely to be better than 4.5 just having an actual passing threat, and his % of hitting big plays should increase as well. 

Ingram should still hold the job, like you said he's a superior dual threat, but I'd argue Peterson is probably still a better runner. Hightower had 155 carries last year, Peterson should get more work than him, and be more effective with it. 

I think a fair estimate is Ingram in the 15-20 range and Peterson in the 25-30 range. Its also possible the Saints run more with Cooks gone.
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We'll have to wait and see. But Peterson has been effective working out of the I formation with a full back as a lead blocker. If the Saints line up like that, it's most likely a running play, and the Saints will lose any advantage of having a rush/pass on any given play. Peterson hasn't been anywhere near as effective working out of the shotgun. If the Saints expect him to consistently pick up blitzers in a shotgun formation, Brees is going to be leaving on a stretcher.

We also don't know what a 32 year old RB with multiple knee surgeries and 2,800 career touches has left in the tank (regular and post season combined). I doubt the Saints will take touches away from Ingram, so Peterson will get the leftovers (or a bigger workload if Ingram is out). Ingram has missed 7 games in 3 years, which isn't excessive. Sure, he could get hurt early with a serious injury, but so could the lead back on any other team.

In ADP's last 9 games played (end of 2015 and 2016), he accounted for 438 rushing yards on 150 carries. That's a 2.88 ypc average. Sure, some of that is probably injury related or poor QB play, but that still should be a bit of a red flag.

As for the assertion that "his YPC is likely to be better than 4.5," there have been 4 (FOUR) running backs in their age 32 season that have had 100 carries and averaged 4.5 ypc, so that might be a bit of a reach. The Saints have averaged 13.7 rushing TD by RB in the 11 years with Brees at QB, so 8-10 TD for ADP is probably a reach.

Factor in that the Saints defense has ranked in the Bottom 5 in points allowed 4 times in the past 5 years, and it is more probable than not the Saints will continue to air it out and have to air it out.

Add everything together, and IMO there is more to indicate Peterson will not be putting up big numbers in New Orleans, but maybe that's just how I see things and am missing the upside.

 
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So what do you think the Saints told AP about his role that makes him sign a contract now?  I'm not saying teams are completely up front with free agents when they are trying to sign them but I find it hard to believe AP isn't being told he is going to get a decent amount of carries in their game plan.  Otherwise, I would think he would wait for a training camp injury that created a larger role.

 
Hankmoody said:
Where in the world are you getting that from?
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Projections on the previous page that AP finishes as a top-15 FF back in 2017.

IMHO, that's an impossibility in the Saints offense unless he becomes a 300-carry bellcow.

 
TheFanatic said:
Having a legit passing attack could lead to ADP having a field day against light fronts. If he can stay healthy and get 12-15 carries a game plus the goal line work, that could put him in line for some sick numbers IF HE CAN STAY HEALTHY. That last point is very problematic for me. 
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When he's in the game won't it kind of be a "tell" that NO is likely running since he can't pass block and isn't an effective pass catcher?  

 
Warhogs said:
... I wouldn't be at all surprised if AP lead that team in carries.
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I wouldn't be surprised, either ... but the only way I think that happens is if Ingram misses most of the season.

Say both backs suit up for 12-13 games -- I don't think it is possible for AP to even closely approach Ingram in carries. Maybe if Ingram has a "force me off the team" blowup after a 3-fumble game or something.

 
Warhogs said:
So what do you think the Saints told AP about his role that makes him sign a contract now?  I'm not saying teams are completely up front with free agents when they are trying to sign them but I find it hard to believe AP isn't being told he is going to get a decent amount of carries in their game plan.  Otherwise, I would think he would wait for a training camp injury that created a larger role.
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The number of RB roster spots is going to shrink after the draft. Blount, Plus guys like Lynch, Charles, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Justin Forsett, and Rashad Jennings all still need teams. Rookies or older vets may not be in the same class as Peterson, but roster spots are going to become harder to come by as we get closer to training camp and opening day, and salary cap dollars across the league will start to dry up.

 
Anarchy99 said:
The number of RB roster spots is going to shrink after the draft. Blount, Plus guys like Lynch, Charles, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Justin Forsett, and Rashad Jennings all still need teams. Rookies or older vets may not be in the same class as Peterson, but roster spots are going to become harder to come by as we get closer to training camp and opening day, and salary cap dollars across the league will start to dry up.
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I understand that but it didn't answer the question I proposed at all which was what do you think AP is being told by the Saints about what his role will be to make him sign now?  Unless I misunderstood and you are saying they are telling him it's going to be tough to find a job after the draft and he has said OK, where do I sign? Certainly this is speculation but in the very least I suspect he is being told he will be given an opportunity to beat out Ingram in training camp.  It could go as far as we plan on getting you 200+ carries on the year.  I doubt it's as little as hey, we have the Tim Hightower role available for you.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
When he's in the game won't it kind of be a "tell" that NO is likely running since he can't pass block and isn't an effective pass catcher?  
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The guy has had 29 or more receptions five different times with two years eclipsing 40 catches. Ingram had 50, 46 and 29 catches the last three years. Not head and shoulders higher than what ADP is capable. 

 
Warhogs said:
I understand that but it didn't answer the question I proposed at all which was what do you think AP is being told by the Saints about what his role will be to make him sign now?  Unless I misunderstood and you are saying they are telling him it's going to be tough to find a job after the draft and he has said OK, where do I sign? Certainly this is speculation but in the very least I suspect he is being told he will be given an opportunity to beat out Ingram in training camp.  It could go as far as we plan on getting you 200+ carries on the year.  I doubt it's as little as hey, we have the Tim Hightower role available for you.
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I think enough teams told ADP that they were interested and the few teams that were most likely wanted him for close to the league minimum with some incentives that he probably took the Saints offer as either the only one on the table or the only one above $1-2M Peterson allegedly wanted to play for a team with a good chance to get a ring. Is that really the Saints? No offense to Saints fans, but they've had back-to-back-to-back 7 win seasons. I don't see them as a clear SB contender.

As far as your question goes, I doubt the Saints promised him X amount of carries or spelled out a defined role that reduces Ingram's worload. I wasn't in the room and clearly am just guessing, but I would think they said they will try to find him some consistent carries and a steady workload, that they will try to keep Ingram fresh for the playoffs or to keep him healthy, that the defense will be better and they won't have to pass as much, etc. The Saints will probably proclaim that nothing is set in stone and there will be an open competition at all positions and the best players will earn more playing time. I really doubt they promised him 200+ carries. Only 19 backs had that many last year, and Ingram was one of them.

That being said, I doubt Peterson will take over the starting or lead back role over Ingram if Ingram is healthy. I also don't think Peterson is going to go to NOS and look like a spry 22 year old and light the world on fire, but maybe that's just me.

 
Warhogs said:
So what do you think the Saints told AP about his role that makes him sign a contract now?  I'm not saying teams are completely up front with free agents when they are trying to sign them but I find it hard to believe AP isn't being told he is going to get a decent amount of carries in their game plan.  Otherwise, I would think he would wait for a training camp injury that created a larger role.
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I don't think it had to do with what they told them, but more of a situation.  He has been very clear he wants to play for a championship caliber team.  So that cuts the 32 down to 10 -15 teams.  Then you take out the teams that have locks at RB's and your down to only a handful of teams he would play for.  After couple teams already said no thank you or the offer was too low, he knew he had to move now or be stuck waiting for an injury.  

 
Anarchy99 said:
We'll have to wait and see. But Peterson has been effective working out of the I formation with a full back as a lead blocker. If the Saints line up like that, it's most likely a running play, and the Saints will lose any advantage of having a rush/pass on any given play. Peterson hasn't been anywhere near as effective working out of the shotgun. If the Saints expect him to consistently pick up blitzers in a shotgun formation, Brees is going to be leaving on a stretcher.
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ADP had a full back his entire career because he had 8 and 9 man fronts to face every game. Defenses can't stack the box and key on ADP with Brees there. So just maybe he doesn't need the full back if the Defense is kept honest by Brees. 

 
TheFanatic said:
The guy has had 29 or more receptions five different times with two years eclipsing 40 catches. Ingram had 50, 46 and 29 catches the last three years. Not head and shoulders higher than what ADP is capable. 
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The Saints RB corps has averaged 126 receptions per year over the past three years, whether they went to Ingram or other backs. The Saints throw to their backs a ton . . . which means they need backs to block and / or catch the ball. Either way, that probably is not Peterson's strongest part of his game.

As for an earlier post suggesting that the Saints might run more with Cooks gone, all I can say is the Saints have passed A TON before Cooks was there, while Cooks was there, and most likely after he's gone. The Saints have been Top 2 in passing attempts 8 times in the Brees era (and were Top 5 two other times).

 
Anarchy99 said:
The Saints RB corps has averaged 126 receptions per year over the past three years, whether they went to Ingram or other backs. The Saints throw to their backs a ton . . . which means they need backs to block and / or catch the ball. Either way, that probably is not Peterson's strongest part of his game.

As for an earlier post suggesting that the Saints might run more with Cooks gone, all I can say is the Saints have passed A TON before Cooks was there, while Cooks was there, and most likely after he's gone. The Saints have been Top 2 in passing attempts 8 times in the Brees era (and were Top 5 two other times).
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The guy had 43 and 40 catches in 2 different seasons. He can catch. He just wasn't asked to very much. There's a difference between not being able to catch and being Jeremy Hill. 

 
TheFanatic said:
ADP had a full back his entire career because he had 8 and 9 man fronts to face every game. Defenses can't stack the box and key on ADP with Brees there. So just maybe he doesn't need the full back if the Defense is kept honest by Brees. 
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I think things like this tend to get over exaggerated.

 
TheFanatic said:
ADP had a full back his entire career because he had 8 and 9 man fronts to face every game. Defenses can't stack the box and key on ADP with Brees there. So just maybe he doesn't need the full back if the Defense is kept honest by Brees. 
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While impossible to prove, I believe the better passing game = fewer defenders in the box = great rushing numbers is mostly a myth and an urban legend.

Certainly teams were fearful of Peyton Manning. Great skill players, mostly played indoors and on turf, posted huge season totals for points and passing yards. Yet over his career, here were the times his team's ranked 20th or worse in ypc: 20, 20, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 29, 30, and 32. That's 10 seasons . . . and there were seasons at 16, 16, and 17.

Teams have been equally fearful of the high flying Patriots offense. Yet with Tom Brady under center, here were the season rankings where NE ranked 20th or worse in ypc: 21, 22, 24, 24, 25, 27, 29, 30, and 30. That's 9 seasons . . . and there were also seasons at 17, 18, and 18.

I am sure there are other examples, but one would think that with such great QB's and passing attacks, defenses would have been poor against the run because they put in more defensive backs and played off the LOS. . . but that clearly wasn't the case.

 
IMO I think ADP should be projected a LOT closer to 200 carries than 300 carries this year in New Orleans....

 
Anarchy99 said:
IMO, ADP should be projected a lot closer to 150 carries. But that's just me.
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I don't disagree.... I'm just referring to the 300 carry/bellcow talk here. If we factor in injury risk (and possibly even not), then 150 is a real number folks should consider. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
While impossible to prove, I believe the better passing game = fewer defenders in the box = great rushing numbers is mostly a myth and an urban legend.

Certainly teams were fearful of Peyton Manning. Great skill players, mostly played indoors and on turf, posted huge season totals for points and passing yards. Yet over his career, here were the times his team's ranked 20th or worse in ypc: 20, 20, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 29, 30, and 32. That's 10 seasons . . . and there were seasons at 16, 16, and 17.

Teams have been equally fearful of the high flying Patriots offense. Yet with Tom Brady under center, here were the season rankings where NE ranked 20th or worse in ypc: 21, 22, 24, 24, 25, 27, 29, 30, and 30. That's 9 seasons . . . and there were also seasons at 17, 18, and 18.

I am sure there are other examples, but one would think that with such great QB's and passing attacks, defenses would have been poor against the run because they put in more defensive backs and played off the LOS. . . but that clearly wasn't the case.
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Peyton had Edgerin James for some of those years, but Brady didn't have much in the backfield to work with. Edge was a great RB, but a notch below ADP and I would have to wonder where Edge would rank all time if he had to play in Minnesota. 

You may be right that at great passing game doesn't necessarily lead to a great running game but those two examples aren't the best. 

 
TheFanatic said:
Peyton had Edgerin James for some of those years, but Brady didn't have much in the backfield to work with. Edge was a great RB, but a notch below ADP and I would have to wonder where Edge would rank all time if he had to play in Minnesota. 

You may be right that at great passing game doesn't necessarily lead to a great running game but those two examples aren't the best. 
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Looking at Brees' time in NOS, the Saints had years where they ranked 23, 26, 26, 27, and 29 in ypc with 3 more years ranked in the teens. But they mixed in three years in the Top 10, so they had a broader range. Bottom line, though, having a good passing attack, playing indoors, and playing on turf didn't consistently help the running game.

I suspect every situation has a slightly different wrinkle. ADP, at 22, playing with Brees in NOS would have had a much more profound effect than him playing there at 32.

 
TheFanatic said:
ADP had a full back his entire career because he had 8 and 9 man fronts to face every game. Defenses can't stack the box and key on ADP with Brees there. So just maybe he doesn't need the full back if the Defense is kept honest by Brees. 
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Actually Peterson came from a spread offense in college and early on in his career he didn't like running behind a FB at all. He says he was not a paitent runner early on in his career and not willing to wait for blocks to develop in front of him. He would just go. And at times outrun his blocking. He said he preferred the flexibility of not having to wait for (at that time Jim Kleinsasser) to get his block before accelerating off of the block.

In 2012 Peterson had about half of his 2k yards running behind Jerome Felton. The results of the stats did not lie and after being told that he ran better with a FB than without one that season, he said he didn't mind running with a FB then. That he had become a more patient runner than earlier in his career and so on.

So Peterson has changed and improved over time. One thing that has not changed is his ability to block.

 
Anarchy99 said:
IMO, ADP should be projected a lot closer to 150 carries. But that's just me.
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If AP makes it to 150 without a severe Ingram injury, I'd consider it a miracle. Keep in mind there will be a third back in the mix (whoever Payton shoehorns into the satellite back role).

 
Biabreakable said:
Actually Peterson came from a spread offense in college and early on in his career he didn't like running behind a FB at all. He says he was not a paitent runner early on in his career and not willing to wait for blocks to develop in front of him. He would just go. And at times outrun his blocking. He said he preferred the flexibility of not having to wait for (at that time Jim Kleinsasser) to get his block before accelerating off of the block.

In 2012 Peterson had about half of his 2k yards running behind Jerome Felton. The results of the stats did not lie and after being told that he ran better with a FB than without one that season, he said he didn't mind running with a FB then. That he had become a more patient runner than earlier in his career and so on.

So Peterson has changed and improved over time. One thing that has not changed is his ability to block.
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He's still that way and hasn't changed a thing. 

 
The 300 rush attempts was just crazy talk in my opinion.  Let's break down the attempts leaders last year:

300+ attempts (4)

250-299 attempts (8)

200-249 attempts (8)

Interesting enough is that the 20th guy in attempts was Mark Ingram.

If you add the attempts of Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower together you get 338.  If you split them 50/50 you get 169 attempts for each guy.  169 attempts each would tie them for 25th in the league in rushing attempts in 2016.  You can draw your own conclusions from there on how you think the carries are split.  I think both guys could fall in the 150-200 range in carries.  That may keep them in the 20-25 range in attempts on the year so from a rushing yards standpoint both look like they may be in that low RB2/RB3 range.  For either of these guys to approach high end RB2 range they would need to either score 10+ td or 50+ receptions.  Without an injury these guys appear to be more like not overly exciting RB2 types.  I still feel AP is the better pure rusher and Ingram is the better receiver but both feel like low level RB2 type producers at this point.

 
Just as a comparison, age 32 seasons for all RB's that have had 10,000+ career rushing yards . . .

Code: 
Player		Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD
Emmitt Smith	90	256	2	14	107	0
Walter Payton	321	1333	8	37	382	3
Curtis Martin	220	735	5	24	118	0
L Tomlinson	75	280	1	42	449	2
Jerome Bettis	250	941	13	6	46	0
Eric Dickerson	187	729	2	14	85	1
Frank Gore	263	967	6	34	267	1
Tony Dorsett	184	785	5	25	267	1
Marshall Faulk	65	292	0	44	291	1
Marcus Allen	67	301	2	28	277	1
Franco Harris	140	604	2	31	249	0
Thurman Thomas	93	381	2	26	220	1
Fred Taylor	143	556	1	16	98	0
Steven Jackson	21	50	1	1	20	0
John Riggins	195	714	13	6	59	0
Corey Dillon	199	812	13	15	147	0
O.J. Simpson	120	460	3	7	46	0
Warrick Dunn	227	720	4	37	238	0
Ricky Watters	72	318	1	11	107	0
Thomas Jones	245	896	6	14	122	0
Ottis Anderson	325	1023	14	28	268	0
Ricky Williams	241	1121	11	35	264	2
 
Doug B said:
Projections on the previous page that AP finishes as a top-15 FF back in 2017.

IMHO, that's an impossibility in the Saints offense unless he becomes a 300-carry bellcow.
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So one random guy making a non-PPR-only projection is everyone outside of New Orleans.  Gotcha.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Just as a comparison, age 32 seasons for all RB's that have had 10,000+ career rushing yards . . .

Player Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD
Emmitt Smith 90 256 2 14 107 0
Walter Payton 321 1333 8 37 382 3
Curtis Martin 220 735 5 24 118 0
L Tomlinson 75 280 1 42 449 2
Jerome Bettis 250 941 13 6 46 0
Eric Dickerson 187 729 2 14 85 1
Frank Gore 263 967 6 34 267 1
Tony Dorsett 184 785 5 25 267 1
Marshall Faulk 65 292 0 44 291 1
Marcus Allen 67 301 2 28 277 1
Franco Harris 140 604 2 31 249 0
Thurman Thomas 93 381 2 26 220 1
Fred Taylor 143 556 1 16 98 0
Steven Jackson 21 50 1 1 20 0
John Riggins 195 714 13 6 59 0
Corey Dillon 199 812 13 15 147 0
O.J. Simpson 120 460 3 7 46 0
Warrick Dunn 227 720 4 37 238 0
Ricky Watters 72 318 1 11 107 0
Thomas Jones 245 896 6 14 122 0
Ottis Anderson 325 1023 14 28 268 0
Ricky Williams 241 1121 11 35 264 2
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Conclusion...Walter Payton was the BEST.

 
TheFanatic said:
The guy had 43 and 40 catches in 2 different seasons. He can catch. He just wasn't asked to very much. There's a difference between not being able to catch and being Jeremy Hill. 
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Jeremy Hill can catch the ball too. He just isn't that great after the catch.

Peterson can catch the ball, but it isn't something he has really developed. I used to think he could catch more passes too. For a few years this is something Peterson talked about working on during the offseason and that he wanted to be more involved as a receiver, but it never bore any fruit. He was still terrible in pass protection and Peterson does not run very good routes to get open at all. He does a lot of standing in one spot and looking back to the QB instead of trying to get open. Defenders would leave him wide open in flat at times and when they did throw it to him hot, he doesn't catch the ball in such a way to help him make the fihe defender miss. He just inst that good at being a receiver.

He can catch though. That isn't really the problem. The problem is route running and making himself a better option for the QB to throw to.

 
Hankmoody said:
So one random guy making a non-PPR-only projection is everyone outside of New Orleans.  Gotcha.
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Yeah, I exaggerated. I "read the room" and saw a lot of people were generally optimistic about Peterson. Once I saw "top-15" break out, I was thinking a lot of outside observers must have been assuming AP was coming to be the Saints' real-life RB1 while Ingram got kicked to the curb.

Anyway, the comments in this thread since then have come back down to Earth. I do still think most people are going to overproject Peterson a lot -- but that's just an expression of my lack of faith in AP's ultimate fantasy numbers.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Just as a comparison, age 32 seasons for all RB's that have had 10,000+ career rushing yards . . .

Player Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD
Emmitt Smith 90 256 2 14 107 0
Walter Payton 321 1333 8 37 382 3
Curtis Martin 220 735 5 24 118 0
L Tomlinson 75 280 1 42 449 2
Jerome Bettis 250 941 13 6 46 0
Eric Dickerson 187 729 2 14 85 1
Frank Gore 263 967 6 34 267 1
Tony Dorsett 184 785 5 25 267 1
Marshall Faulk 65 292 0 44 291 1
Marcus Allen 67 301 2 28 277 1
Franco Harris 140 604 2 31 249 0
Thurman Thomas 93 381 2 26 220 1
Fred Taylor 143 556 1 16 98 0
Steven Jackson 21 50 1 1 20 0
John Riggins 195 714 13 6 59 0
Corey Dillon 199 812 13 15 147 0
O.J. Simpson 120 460 3 7 46 0
Warrick Dunn 227 720 4 37 238 0
Ricky Watters 72 318 1 11 107 0
Thomas Jones 245 896 6 14 122 0
Ottis Anderson 325 1023 14 28 268 0
Ricky Williams 241 1121 11 35 264 2
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Good god..Sweetness was a BEAST

 
Anarchy99 said:
Just as a comparison, age 32 seasons for all RB's that have had 10,000+ career rushing yards . . .

Player Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD
Emmitt Smith 90 256 2 14 107 0
Walter Payton 321 1333 8 37 382 3
Curtis Martin 220 735 5 24 118 0
L Tomlinson 75 280 1 42 449 2
Jerome Bettis 250 941 13 6 46 0
Eric Dickerson 187 729 2 14 85 1
Frank Gore 263 967 6 34 267 1
Tony Dorsett 184 785 5 25 267 1
Marshall Faulk 65 292 0 44 291 1
Marcus Allen 67 301 2 28 277 1
Franco Harris 140 604 2 31 249 0
Thurman Thomas 93 381 2 26 220 1
Fred Taylor 143 556 1 16 98 0
Steven Jackson 21 50 1 1 20 0
John Riggins 195 714 13 6 59 0
Corey Dillon 199 812 13 15 147 0
O.J. Simpson 120 460 3 7 46 0
Warrick Dunn 227 720 4 37 238 0
Ricky Watters 72 318 1 11 107 0
Thomas Jones 245 896 6 14 122 0
Ottis Anderson 325 1023 14 28 268 0
Ricky Williams 241 1121 11 35 264 2
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If there was one guy to buck that trend... It's ADP's chemist  :D

 
I think you can pencil Peterson in to have a good day week one.  :shock:

Not sure what happens after that. I would assume the usual RBBC frustration for fantasy owners of Saints RB.

 
Saints coach Sean Payton promises new RB Adrian Peterson will have a "clear role."
Payton insists Peterson and Mark Ingram will "blend well." That figures to be easier said than done. Payton has always featured multiple backs, but Ingram and Peterson have significant stylistic overlap. Ingram figures to become even more involved as a pass catcher, while Peterson should be counted on to churn yardage in early-down/goal-line situations. It could be hard for either back to carve out clear-cut, weekly RB2 status in standard leagues.

Related: Mark Ingram
 
Source: Nick Underhill on Twitter 
Apr 25 - 6:00 PM
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Quote:  Saints coach Sean Payton promises new RB Adrian Peterson will have a "clear role."

Does a Sean Payton rushing offense have ANY clear roles besides "You run when I tell you to, and you sit till I say so.  Clear?"

 
Doug B said:
Yeah, I exaggerated. I "read the room" and saw a lot of people were generally optimistic about Peterson. Once I saw "top-15" break out, I was thinking a lot of outside observers must have been assuming AP was coming to be the Saints' real-life RB1 while Ingram got kicked to the curb.

Anyway, the comments in this thread since then have come back down to Earth. I do still think most people are going to overproject Peterson a lot -- but that's just an expression of my lack of faith in AP's ultimate fantasy numbers.
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My initial lean is that if he's healthy he's going to be a mid-RB2 with weekly upside in tandem with Ingram. It feels weird to type that, but stepping back I think that's what we'll have here fantasy wise save injury. I will be interested to see where mocks post-draft have him landing, but I'm thinking at least 1+ people in every league (save expert mocks) will believe he can/will still be the old lock-RB1 ADP and his ADP/Auction price will reflect that, correctly or incorrectly, so I'll likely be out. I think to achieve where he'll be priced it will take an Ingram injury + AP being 100% with no slow down, which is a little rich for my blood. 

 
Anarchy99 said:
Just as a comparison, age 32 seasons for all RB's that have had 10,000+ career rushing yards . . .

Player Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD
Emmitt Smith 90 256 2 14 107 0
Walter Payton 321 1333 8 37 382 3
Curtis Martin 220 735 5 24 118 0
L Tomlinson 75 280 1 42 449 2
Jerome Bettis 250 941 13 6 46 0
Eric Dickerson 187 729 2 14 85 1
Frank Gore 263 967 6 34 267 1
Tony Dorsett 184 785 5 25 267 1
Marshall Faulk 65 292 0 44 291 1
Marcus Allen 67 301 2 28 277 1
Franco Harris 140 604 2 31 249 0
Thurman Thomas 93 381 2 26 220 1
Fred Taylor 143 556 1 16 98 0
Steven Jackson 21 50 1 1 20 0
John Riggins 195 714 13 6 59 0
Corey Dillon 199 812 13 15 147 0
O.J. Simpson 120 460 3 7 46 0
Warrick Dunn 227 720 4 37 238 0
Ricky Watters 72 318 1 11 107 0
Thomas Jones 245 896 6 14 122 0
Ottis Anderson 325 1023 14 28 268 0
Ricky Williams 241 1121 11 35 264 2
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To be fair, Peterson is better than all but 3 of those guys. Payton, Dickerson and Emmitt, and even Emmitt is kind of a maybe.

Peterson's situation most mirrors Ricky Williams though. Both guys for various reasons were basically coming off a stretch of very little usage whether it be from injury or suspensions, and they both were set to split time with former 1st round picks, that the coaching staffs were seemingly getting frustrated by.

 
travdogg said:
To be fair, Peterson is better than all but 3 of those guys. Payton, Dickerson and Emmitt, and even Emmitt is kind of a maybe.

Peterson's situation most mirrors Ricky Williams though. Both guys for various reasons were basically coming off a stretch of very little usage whether it be from injury or suspensions, and they both were set to split time with former 1st round picks, that the coaching staffs were seemingly getting frustrated by.
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In what was was Peterson better than Curtis Martin or Ladainian Tomlinson?  

 
Sabertooth said:
In what was was Peterson better than Curtis Martin or Ladainian Tomlinson?  
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Curtis Martin is one of the most overrated RBs in history. He was a very good RB for a decade, he was never elite, not sure he was ever one of the 3 best RBs in the NFL at any point of his career, and he was absolutely a statistical compiler. I can't even understand an argument that Martin was better than Peterson. Peterson had more power, burst, more ability to just take over a game. Martin was better in the passing game, and more durable and that's it.

Tomlinson obviously had more versatility, but never had Peterson's power, and he showed signs of decline a lot sooner. There is an argument that they were equals, depending on what type of offense you like to run, and what you are asking a RB to do, but purely as a runner, Peterson was simply better.

I'm starting to think Adrian Peterson is one of the most underrated players in recent history. Without him, the Vikings are probably picking in the top-10 for almost the entire last decade. 

 
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