jeaton6
Footballguy
I play a lot of cheap GPPs. Honestly unless you have a big bankroll this seems like to much money into bug money GPPs.
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DFS general strategy thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Maurile Tremblay
- Start date
karmarooster
Footballguy
Maybe you like the GPPs but that is def. a heavy concentration as compared to the cash games. Also split those $5 and $10 50/50s and H2Hs into multiple $1 and $2 entries. 15 x $1 H2Hs > 3 x $5 H2Hs.
Only deposited $200.00 last week and won $40 so current bankroll is $240.00. Not really worried about that part of it as I have a pretty sizable Bovada Bankroll that I can bleed from. I was just curious if the variance in plays is that big a deal. I honestly play for the fun of it and playing solely lower 50/50 seems boring to me. If I lose a few hundred I'm ok with that
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
I would avoid the $10 50/50 -- break those up into smaller contests. The math says your expected return is much better at $2 or even $5.
I think you're heavy in the GPP from a cash management standpoint, but if you're cool with that variance, roll with it. Personally I'm an 80-85% cash guy (I consider triple ups cash games and quintuple ups GPP plays), but I skew conservative as a rule.
snellman
Footballguy
you will see a slight increase after tonight, but nothing major. Depending on how many contests you want to be involved in you might want to start getting in the 50/50s
massraider
Footballguy
Same for me. 80% of my weekly drop info 50/50, and about 20% fun money into the GPP
snellman
Footballguy
I would tone back the higher 50/50s into more smaller ones. I understand you don't care about losing money, but the 50/50s will help keep you bankroll going so you can spend the money on the tourneys.Got it
Learning as I go
msudaisy26
Footballguy
That is part of my strategy. Once you get about 7 or 8 weeks into the year I can gauge my teams pretty well, I also look at who I am facing that week and really look at their lineups. I always try to build around who I know will do well on my team and who scares me on the other team. After that it is usually just filling in 2 guys and maybe the kicker and defense.CR69 said:
Steeler
Footballguy
I've been using a GPP "insurance" lineup for several weeks now which consists of players from my opponent's roster in my main redraft league. Like daisy, I start building this roster based on the players I fear the most from the opponent's team and keep going until their players no longer fit under the cap. At that point I just fill in with value plays at whatever positions are left.
massraider
Footballguy
Let's talk multiple entry contests. Do you:
1. Enter the same lineup across several contests.
2. Saturate a contest with several lineups.
3. Whittle it down to a few lineups, and enter them equally in several contests.
4. Throw different lineups in several/many contests.
This past weekend, I found myself with different lineups in several different GPP, and considering the scores that cash seem pretty consistent across the different GPP, I wondered why I felt the need to enter different contests. Seems like your odds improve, when you have multiple entries in the same contest. This might be obvious to some, but I'm just realizing it.
I'm also pretty sure the more different lineups I have, the better. I made money this weekend, and may make a lot more if Martellus has a nice night, but the percentage of my lineups that cashed was about 15%.
1. Enter the same lineup across several contests.
2. Saturate a contest with several lineups.
3. Whittle it down to a few lineups, and enter them equally in several contests.
4. Throw different lineups in several/many contests.
This past weekend, I found myself with different lineups in several different GPP, and considering the scores that cash seem pretty consistent across the different GPP, I wondered why I felt the need to enter different contests. Seems like your odds improve, when you have multiple entries in the same contest. This might be obvious to some, but I'm just realizing it.
I'm also pretty sure the more different lineups I have, the better. I made money this weekend, and may make a lot more if Martellus has a nice night, but the percentage of my lineups that cashed was about 15%.
BigJohn
Footballguy
I will usually enter all my GPP and each cash lineup into the same multiple entry contest once.
For instance, this weekend, I ended up with 10 lineups, overall. 5 Cash and 5 GPP. I found 4 multiple entry tourney and entered all 10 into one of them, then entered my 5 GPP lineups in the other 3.
My tourney success has been MUCH better on Draftkings, for whatever reason. I'm up $100 this weekend, but I don't think I'll end up that much since I don't have much going tonight(feeling like I'm going to regret that).
For instance, this weekend, I ended up with 10 lineups, overall. 5 Cash and 5 GPP. I found 4 multiple entry tourney and entered all 10 into one of them, then entered my 5 GPP lineups in the other 3.
My tourney success has been MUCH better on Draftkings, for whatever reason. I'm up $100 this weekend, but I don't think I'll end up that much since I don't have much going tonight(feeling like I'm going to regret that).
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Why do you think your odds improve?
If you're assuming that the score needed to cash is consistent across contests, then it doesn't really make much of a difference. As long as you're only talking about a handful of lineups, whether you them all in one big contest, or spread them out in multiple contests, each lineup is either going to beat that minimum score or it isn't.
In reality, the score needed to cash in a GPP is going to vary around some mean. On average, you might need a 130 but in any particular contest it might be 120 or 140 or something. So spreading them out in several contests decreases the chance that you end up with all your money in one contest where you need 140 to cash (it also decreases the chance that you end up with all your money in one contest where you need 120 to cash, so it works both ways). So it can help reduce a little bit of variance in your results.
massraider
Footballguy
Was hoping someone that understood this more than me (a goat, for example) would reply. Thanks.
I'm new to DFS this year. I began the year playing on Fanduel only, and about half way through the year started playing Draftkings also. I've had similar success in cash games between the two sites, but have done much better in GPPs on Draftkings.
Do you guys use any different strategies between the two sites?
Do you guys use any different strategies between the two sites?
ZWK
Footballguy
A simple way to think about it: your second entry in a GPP with the same lineup cannot win 1st place. If you enter the same lineup in 2 different GPPs (and it turns out to be an amazing lineup), you can win 1st place in both of them. If you enter it twice into the same GPP, you will win 1st place and 2nd place.
So if it's a big money GPP where a large fraction of the payout goes to first place, then you do not want to enter the same lineup more than once. If the payout for 1st place is pretty small (relative to the total payout), then you don't lose much expected money by multi-entering the same lineup. And if it's a game with lots of entries and flat payouts (where everyone who wins gets the same amount, like a 50/50 or a triple up) then you basically don't lose anything by multi-entering.
massraider
Footballguy
Copy that. I'm talking about whether it makes sense to enter 5 lineups (for example, could be 20 lineups) into the same GPP. If you enter 20 lineups, there's 19 other lineups by other people that couldn't be entered.
Getting the feeling it doesn't really matter, from a 'math' standpoint.
Getting the feeling it doesn't really matter, from a 'math' standpoint.
massraider
Footballguy
If DeMarco is out, I'm gonna avoid all Cowboys. Maybe Witten in a few. Bryant will be the focus of the defense, and think I may just fade him, and hope the heavily owned Dez lays an egg.
ZWK
Footballguy
If you're entering several different lineups into the same GPP, that doesn't make much difference. If your lineups are very similar to each other then that will hurt you a little (for the same reason that it's good to avoid using players that lots of other people are using). But if your lineups are all different from each other by at least a few players, then entering several different lineups (vs. 1 lineup) basically makes no difference.
jeaton6
Footballguy
@ATO. Responding to your post from a few days ago. Ive got a decent amount of data I can compile on minimum required for my different lineups (doub, trip, quint, GPP). Will try to post this weekend.
I've also been tracking my average score by contest, average score I've cashed in by contest, and std deviation of my contest scores which has been interesting...my GPPs DO NOT have highest std. deviation which tells me I'm probably doing something wrong...
I've also been tracking my average score by contest, average score I've cashed in by contest, and std deviation of my contest scores which has been interesting...my GPPs DO NOT have highest std. deviation which tells me I'm probably doing something wrong...
massraider
Footballguy
Needs to be said:
You gotta take a stand. This might seem obvious to some, but maybe not to all. You have to take a stance on which players you are down on, high on, pound or fade those guys, then build teams around your guys. Especially in tournaments.
My strategy is slooowly rounding into form, only been at this a few weeks. The big difference is, obviously, every game, every player is in play. So I have been going macro, looking at the big picture. How do I think each game is gonna go? I think DET could get out front quick on CHI, and pound Joique Bell up Chicago's gut until they scream for mercy. Calvin Johnson is a scary proposition, because if he doesn't score in the first half, but they are up 24-0, how much work does he get in the 2nd half? I could see the game playing out that way, and at his price, do I want to start a guy that may be on the sideline in a ball cap by the 3rd Q? And who will probably be heavily owned. There are games I don't have as good a handle on. SD/SF. I really have no idea, so I may just stay away. But I know a guy like Floyd will be heavily owned. He's gonna have to have a career game to really help me. Gates in cash games, maybe.
You gotta pick those bargain basement guys you love, take a stand, and hope they give you an edge. Especially the ones not everyone is on. Like a bargain guy no one is talking about? That's great, he'll have a low ownership percentage, and more the better. The one position I don't think anyone is very smart taking a stand is kicker. I love putting together the lineups you like,minus the K and D, and then maybe just duplicate them, swapping out combos you like at K and D. 5-10 lineups, with the only difference being the kicker/defense combo. When you look at the big cashes in GPPs, they all nailed K and D. Did the predict it? Or did they just enter the same freaking lineup 10 times, with 10 different kickers??
I've started a spread sheet, that I keep altering every week. Game by game, position by position, I enter guys I like, with their salaries. I color-code cash plays and GPP plays, and try and rank how much I like their chances of going off. I had to clean it up, the first few weeks, I was just using the Fan Duel interface, and you can get lost scrolling up and down, clicking guys in, clicking guys out, and trying to use all 60 grand. Stupid way to do it. Choose my guys, bargains/mid range/ and studs, then when I am filling out a lineup, and have a hole with a set dollar amount (I need a TE that costs 6 grand or less, for example), I have my list.
I play a ton of $1 and $2 GPP. $5 double/triple ups/50/50s. That's it. I don't play the big contest for $10 and $25. My bankroll started with $200, I have pulled my initial investment out, and have $650 now. Bankroll isn't big enough for larger entry fees. The big contests have a 'flaw' if you wanna call it that, in that there are guys entering a ton of lineups in the big contests. Better players than me, with a lot more pelts on the wall, are entering huge numbers of lineups. I'm not ready to take on the the Condias of the world.
You gotta take a stand. This might seem obvious to some, but maybe not to all. You have to take a stance on which players you are down on, high on, pound or fade those guys, then build teams around your guys. Especially in tournaments.
My strategy is slooowly rounding into form, only been at this a few weeks. The big difference is, obviously, every game, every player is in play. So I have been going macro, looking at the big picture. How do I think each game is gonna go? I think DET could get out front quick on CHI, and pound Joique Bell up Chicago's gut until they scream for mercy. Calvin Johnson is a scary proposition, because if he doesn't score in the first half, but they are up 24-0, how much work does he get in the 2nd half? I could see the game playing out that way, and at his price, do I want to start a guy that may be on the sideline in a ball cap by the 3rd Q? And who will probably be heavily owned. There are games I don't have as good a handle on. SD/SF. I really have no idea, so I may just stay away. But I know a guy like Floyd will be heavily owned. He's gonna have to have a career game to really help me. Gates in cash games, maybe.
You gotta pick those bargain basement guys you love, take a stand, and hope they give you an edge. Especially the ones not everyone is on. Like a bargain guy no one is talking about? That's great, he'll have a low ownership percentage, and more the better. The one position I don't think anyone is very smart taking a stand is kicker. I love putting together the lineups you like,minus the K and D, and then maybe just duplicate them, swapping out combos you like at K and D. 5-10 lineups, with the only difference being the kicker/defense combo. When you look at the big cashes in GPPs, they all nailed K and D. Did the predict it? Or did they just enter the same freaking lineup 10 times, with 10 different kickers??
I've started a spread sheet, that I keep altering every week. Game by game, position by position, I enter guys I like, with their salaries. I color-code cash plays and GPP plays, and try and rank how much I like their chances of going off. I had to clean it up, the first few weeks, I was just using the Fan Duel interface, and you can get lost scrolling up and down, clicking guys in, clicking guys out, and trying to use all 60 grand. Stupid way to do it. Choose my guys, bargains/mid range/ and studs, then when I am filling out a lineup, and have a hole with a set dollar amount (I need a TE that costs 6 grand or less, for example), I have my list.
I play a ton of $1 and $2 GPP. $5 double/triple ups/50/50s. That's it. I don't play the big contest for $10 and $25. My bankroll started with $200, I have pulled my initial investment out, and have $650 now. Bankroll isn't big enough for larger entry fees. The big contests have a 'flaw' if you wanna call it that, in that there are guys entering a ton of lineups in the big contests. Better players than me, with a lot more pelts on the wall, are entering huge numbers of lineups. I'm not ready to take on the the Condias of the world.
Keerock
Footballguy
Steeler
Footballguy
Your entire post was good but I want to highlight this part because I've been thinking about this exact idea recently.
Earlier in the year I watched a video interview with one of the DK millionaire winner and he said he had about 140 entries in the tournament.
Since that time I've been experimenting with different ways to get multiple lineups into GPP (I also only play the $1 and $2 levels). I've tried multiple QB/WR stacks (up to 10 per week), I've tried stud RB lineups (where the rest of the lineup is basically set, but I rotate several combinations of stud RBs), I've tried the same thing with stud WRs... but all those efforts were more or less a shotgun approach. I used Maurile's value chart to help set each lineup, but each of those approaches clearly generated sub-optimal lineups.So then earlier this week I thought about rotating the K and D rather than the core players and It makes a lot more sense to have a few core lineups that you really like and then rotate the K and D since they are much harder to predict. I'm going to give it a try this weekend
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massraider
Footballguy
It's in a Google Sheet, and only right now, a place where i am making lists. There's no formulas or anything yet. I will be happy to share it once it's more helpful. Trying to figure out what else it needs.
UFGator0587
Footballguy
I've also thought about varying my K and D plays around a core lineup, but I very much believe in not paying up for either one and usually there are very few value plays at those positions compared to RB/WR/TE so I feel WAY more comfortable anchoring my lineups with the same value K and maybe switching between 2 different D's max.
Is this viable to anyone else? It's really worked for me the past few weeks, but I've also hit on Barth while he was a chalk play, and there were surefire $4500-$4900 D plays as well that you knew going into Sunday that you basically had to roster.
Is this viable to anyone else? It's really worked for me the past few weeks, but I've also hit on Barth while he was a chalk play, and there were surefire $4500-$4900 D plays as well that you knew going into Sunday that you basically had to roster.
massraider
Footballguy
I have no problem paying for a defense. Kicker, there isn't a rhyme or reason, and sometimes the 'terrible' kicker play is nice, because you get points on a low-owned guy.UFGator0587 said:
karmarooster
Footballguy
If you're playing the same lineup for skill positions, and only modifying the Ks and Defenses for both tourneys, you're at a huge injury risk. A couple of years ago ARodgers got a concussion in Week 15 in the first half. I only played regular leagues, but if that happens in daily and you have the player across all lineups, you're completely done, and looking at a 100% loss for the week (unless you played H2H in which case you're looking at a 50%+ loss for the H2Hs and a complete loss for the other games).Keerock said:
I think it's incredibly important to identify the players who will form a key part of your lineup - studs with great matchups, or cheap guys who are must play due to great value. BUT, I want no player in more than 66.7% of my lineups (or 50% or 75%, but not 100%). The easiest way to do this: created 3 lineups for entry into the regular sunday games. 1 and 2 will be variations on the main lineup, with say Laveon Bell on both at RB, but some variation at K, Def, and potentially others. Lineup 3 will not have Bell, but instead Murray or some other similar stud RB. Therefore the "core" players will be on 2/3 lineups, but the 3rd will always be a hedge in the event that player is injured early in the game and tanks the lineup.
Doing this certainly caps upside, but it's possible to hit on all 3. It usually means return for a single week is between 30-80%, but will ideally never result in a 100% loss.
Further to this, rather than taking a 'game plan' approach, which I believe is often fruitless in the wild wild west of the NFL, you MUST make a decision on highly owned players. You need to take a look at the top 2-3 players by ownership at each position and decide if you are on the bandwagon or fading. Either way, it must be a conscious decision rather than an inadvertent one. And, if a player is very highly owned (Jeremy Hill in midseason starting at a backup RB price), it can give you more comfort to go all in or closer to all in. if 80% of the league has him, and he gets hurt in 1Q, it won't be a deal breaker. If a player is 10% owned and gets hurt in 1Q, it will most likely torpedo any roster in any game type.
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Gustavo Fring
Footballguy
What is everyone's strategy for week 17, now that the playoff picture is more clear? I am most like going to fade the majority of players on teams that have clinched a playoff spot with no chance of bettering their playoff seed by a win.
James Daulton
Footballguy
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massraider
Footballguy
I have no idea, but it's also possible that some of these teams could find their fate decided before the game. If anyone finds a good link to what's on the line, please post it.
Jerry Curl
Footballguy
snogger
Footballguy
As far as I can tell no Playoff team is really "set in stone".
AFC.. If Denver wins tonight the #1 seed will still be up in the air.. #3 & #4 seed are still in play also.
NFC.. #1 Seed is the Seahawks to take, but not a lock.. Packers & Lions are still playing for the Division and a 1st week bye and the Cowboys have an outside chance at a 1st week bye also.. Carolina and Atlanta are playing for the Division and :X a Playoff spot.
The biggest thing to look at is starting times..
In the AFC..
Broncos play Late afternoon and, depending on how the Colts and Pats do earlier, may have their fate sealed so could rest starters.. But Denver @ home vs. Raiders is going to be tough to fade..
In the NFC.. Seahawks play the late game.. With either the Lions or the Packers set to have 12 wins they will have to win to keep Home Field..
So, other then the possibility of the Broncos resting, the rest are in play
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msudaisy26
Footballguy
I don't think the 4 seed is in play for the Broncos anymore, but they are the only team that you should fade. Everyone else is playing for something.
snogger
Footballguy
If Denver wins tonight and the Pats lose vs. The Bills next week, Denver would be playing for the #1 spot..
Chances are not all that great since it is in New England, but the chance is still there..
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Bobcat10
Footballguy
Has anyone ever thought about playing Pittsburgh D/ST whenever you play Antonio Brown in a lineup? The double dip on FD is pretty ridiculous IMO. Never considered this much because there are not many players like Brown in the league right now. I would assume that generally this would make a great GPP play and a strong cash play when Pitt D/ST has a favorable matchup.
edit: ok thought about this more and it's pretty worthless. Maybe Pitt/Cincy in Primetime...
edit: ok thought about this more and it's pretty worthless. Maybe Pitt/Cincy in Primetime...
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Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Missed this thread the best past week. I also failed to pull the data Monday evening last week before everything processed. I will try to catch it tonight.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
My Defense strategy is pretty simple: I identify the defense I want if salary is no object, the cheapest defense I like, and if there is one a 3rd moderately priced defense I like. I start all of my cash lineups using my #1 defense, then tweak it to the other options based on salary needs at the individual positions.
On PK I think there is more strategy than people think. On any particular week a particular PK may go big or go small, but that's not untrue for position players either. We're just looking to play averages. A guy who gets called on from 50 in is worth more than a guy who doesn't get the chance outside 40. The dome guy is better at home than on the road in weather. Guys on pass-happy, can't run teams are better on average than guys on grind in our power running teams. And since everyone runs to the "best" $4500 option every week, there is ALWAYS a chance to get some uniqueness for $200-300 more every week.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Yeah sorry I'm a bit tardy. I did ask FD to add this feature to their sownloadable data and said they'd pass along to programmers for possible future inclusion
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Good call. Hopefully they will provide that in the future. Just looking over my limited data from late in the season, and the numbers for each price point for each contest are very tightly bunched, and the "120" number to win 60% seems off -- 120 looks like it's a winner more often than that, at least at the $2/$5 level.
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
For those seeking data, here are the cash contests (including 3x and 5x) I entered, with entry fee, number of participants, and score required to win. All are single-entry and for the full slate of games:
2x ($2, 1116 entries in each [4 total]): 109.46, 108.78, 110.38, 110.86
2x ($5, 670 entries in each [11 total]): 112.28, 112.38, 112.16, 110.96, 112.58, 111.76, 108.96, 110.94, 111.38, 112.08, 111.76
3x ($2, 502 entries in each [2 total]): 115.28, 113.08,
3x ($5, 402 entries in each [6 total]): 116.68, 115.18, 116.88, 117.78, 118.28, 116.38,
5x ($2, 558 entries in each [8 total]): 121.78,121.26, 122.36, 120.66, 122.88, 121.66, 121.1, 121.94,
50/50 ($5, 100 entries in each [2 total]): 108.88, 110.78
And here are the leagues I did, with score required to win something:
20 team $5 (3 total): 116.78, 134.86, 121.36
100 team $5 (2 total): 128.68, 125.56
100 team $10 (1 total): 129.06
2x ($2, 1116 entries in each [4 total]): 109.46, 108.78, 110.38, 110.86
2x ($5, 670 entries in each [11 total]): 112.28, 112.38, 112.16, 110.96, 112.58, 111.76, 108.96, 110.94, 111.38, 112.08, 111.76
3x ($2, 502 entries in each [2 total]): 115.28, 113.08,
3x ($5, 402 entries in each [6 total]): 116.68, 115.18, 116.88, 117.78, 118.28, 116.38,
5x ($2, 558 entries in each [8 total]): 121.78,121.26, 122.36, 120.66, 122.88, 121.66, 121.1, 121.94,
50/50 ($5, 100 entries in each [2 total]): 108.88, 110.78
And here are the leagues I did, with score required to win something:
20 team $5 (3 total): 116.78, 134.86, 121.36
100 team $5 (2 total): 128.68, 125.56
100 team $10 (1 total): 129.06
jeaton6
Footballguy
Not strategy but figured I'd pass along:For anyone that hasn't deposited on Draftkings (like me before 5 minutes ago) if you have a Leaguesafe Balance they are offering a 5% cash bonus (goes right into your DK balance) plus a 100% deposit bonus if you move the money to DK ilo keeping in LS or cashing out. They will do this for your first $545 deposited. So my DK balance is now at $572.25 + the deposit bonus goes against the full $572.25. NOTE: you have only 4 months to earn out the bonus. I immediately contacted support and asked them to extend it to 12/29/15 since I exclusively play NFL DFS and they responded within 10 minutes doing exactly as I requested.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
Bonus points are slow to come by and the bonus expires how weak is that
Bobcat10
Footballguy
On DK? Def weak sauce. Their "tickets" also expire after a year. Last year they reissued one of mine because I complained that I had no idea (which I didn't).
jeaton6
Footballguy
Yeah looks like to earn out the $572 bonus I'll have to put $14,300 total in play over the next year. Since I only play NFL I'll have to average about $850 per regular season week in play which only happens IF I do really well right from the get go and can build up my bank. Most likely I earn about 25% of it assuming I don't go broke in the process.
