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RB Nick Chubb, CLE (2 Viewers)

(HULK) said:
Wonder how this will shake out w/ the coach being fired
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FF Ninja said:
And OC  :shock:
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The OC fire 'could be' big news for Chubb. 

Turns out all of the hate directed towards Hue for anything Nick Chubb related was off target.

Offensive coordinator Haley had complete control over everything on offense.  Todd did his own thang his way.

Dysfunction in Cleveland That Preceded Jackson and Haley Firings

...the fact that Jackson hadn’t been involved in teaching, building or gameplanning the offense all along—a result of giving Haley the autonomy he was promised

...Haley just seemed to do his own thing. 
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I think we'll see better use of players and that 'should' lead to more drives continuing instead of stalling which should in-turn lead to more opportunities especially goal line shots.  Nick hasn't gotten many goal line carries and he should see more of those going forward.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
The OC fire 'could be' big news for Chubb. 

Turns out all of the hate directed towards Hue for anything Nick Chubb related was off target.

Offensive coordinator Haley had complete control over everything on offense.  Todd did his own thang his way.

Dysfunction in Cleveland That Preceded Jackson and Haley Firings

I think we'll see better use of players and that 'should' lead to more drives continuing instead of stalling which should in-turn lead to more opportunities especially goal line shots.  Nick hasn't gotten many goal line carries and he should see more of those going forward.
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I don't know about that. I didn't understand Chubb not getting more snaps, but now that Hyde is gone, he was doing pretty well in both snaps and touches. Also I never thought Haley was a bad OC. Similarly, I was impressed with the work Hue did with Dalton and Hill/Gio, so I've been surprised at how bad his offenses in CLE have been. So while the offense wasn't setting the world on fire this year, I think it does have room to get worse with a rookie OC calling the shots.

 
Future Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells hired Kitchens as his TE coach in 2006 with the Dallas Cowboys. This is a coaching staff that had Vikings’ head coach Mike Zimmer, Chargers’ head coach Anthony Lynn, former Dolphins’ head coach Tony Sparano, Jets’ head coach Todd Bowles, and former Browns’ OC Todd Haley who Kitchens now replaces. TE Jason Witten was elected to the Pro Bowl while under Kitchens’ direction.

That would become Parcells’ final year in coaching, so in 2007, Kitchens accepted the TE coaching position with the Arizona Cardinals. With an offensive mind, he was elevated to the QB coach in 2013 and held that position until 2016. He coached Carson Palmer in his Pro Bowl year of 2015 while with the Cardinals. Former Jacksonville Jaguars first-round pick Byron Leftwich was brought in to coach the QBs in 2017 and Kitchens was then switched to the RB coach where he tutored veterans Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson, plus the youngster David Johnson.

When Cardinals’ head coach Bruce Arians announced his retirement and again, a new head coach with his own people brought in a high-probability, Kitchens accepted the Browns’ position of assistant head coach/RB coach for this year.
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Huge game tomorrow as far as trying to evaluate Chubb ROS.  You’ve got Arians disciples in Kitchens and the new RB coach (can’t remember his name).  And the basic foundation of Bruce Arians RB coaching always seemed based on absurd amounts of RB touches to a single main guy.

Media focusing on the tension between Jackson and management regarding Mayfield but you’ve gotta think Jackson’s refusal to play Chubb for so long was also an issue, especially since they basically forced Jackson to start Chubb when they traded Hyde.

Chubb should at least be plan A on the goal line now.

Maybe everything continues as normal and Chubbs remains a solid RB2 ROS, but there’s a potential ceiling increase here IMO and if it’s real we should see it tomorrow

 
jtp1982 said:
Huge game tomorrow as far as trying to evaluate Chubb ROS.  You’ve got Arians disciples in Kitchens and the new RB coach (can’t remember his name).  And the basic foundation of Bruce Arians RB coaching always seemed based on absurd amounts of RB touches to a single main guy.

Media focusing on the tension between Jackson and management regarding Mayfield but you’ve gotta think Jackson’s refusal to play Chubb for so long was also an issue, especially since they basically forced Jackson to start Chubb when they traded Hyde.

Chubb should at least be plan A on the goal line now.

Maybe everything continues as normal and Chubbs remains a solid RB2 ROS, but there’s a potential ceiling increase here IMO and if it’s real we should see it tomorrow
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I heard it was Haley who refused to play Chubb, but same difference, since he was fired too.

That said, I'm not reading too much into coaching changes until I see it on the field. I'm starting Chubb tomorrow because of the matchup, not because I have any idea how Kitchens will impact his usage.

 
zftcg said:
I heard it was Haley who refused to play Chubb, but same difference, since he was fired too.

That said, I'm not reading too much into coaching changes until I see it on the field. I'm starting Chubb tomorrow because of the matchup, not because I have any idea how Kitchens will impact his usage.
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For sure he’s a must start, I’m just looking at potential upside.

This guy makes the case clearer than I can:

https://www.fanduel.com/theduel/posts/6211195-nick-chubb-and-baker-mayfield-have-the-most-to-gain-from-browns-new-offensive-coordinator

 
At this point I consider Chubb a low end RB1 or top end RB2, so he should be in starting lineups every week.  All things equal, I can only name about 12 RB's ahead of him.

 
Pretty much everything  I'm reading is he's a  great play this week, but I'm  really seeing the Chiefs getting up fast and taking  Chubb out of the plan. Hope I'm  wrong as I'm starting him.

 
Feel sneaky CLE cover if not make KC a little antsy in a potential upset.

KC due for a letdown. On the road. T. Hill a little gimpy. And winds are expected to gust a little.

Meanwhile, new CLE coaching regime, could see team fired up.

I think CLE keeps this one close. Feeling a serious Chubb breakout game.

 
kyoun1e said:
Feel sneaky CLE cover if not make KC a little antsy in a potential upset.

KC due for a letdown. On the road. T. Hill a little gimpy. And winds are expected to gust a little.

Meanwhile, new CLE coaching regime, could see team fired up.

I think CLE keeps this one close. Feeling a serious Chubb breakout game.
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He's in my lineup too, so I hope you are right, both about the breakout game, and about the KC letdown.  This is coming from a Chargers homer.  Go Browns!!

 
steelerfan1 said:
Pretty much everything  I'm reading is he's a  great play this week, but I'm  really seeing the Chiefs getting up fast and taking  Chubb out of the plan. Hope I'm  wrong as I'm starting him.
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I think he’s gonna be one of those guys who starts slower in games as he wears the D down and then starts breaking longer runs once they’re tired.

Cleveland probably has the best RB schedule in the league from here on out.  RB 12ish ROS is his floor IMO.

 
Benched him for AP in my main league yesterday and had that sinking feeling pretty quickly. Not benching him again, the volume is undeniably there.

 
cbmd81 said:
Chubb or Mack ROS?
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Chubb is the better player.

Mack plays for a better team.

I consider the way Chubb wins to be a lot more sustainable than Mack who takes risks and runs off script. When it works Mack looks great but because it is usually from going off script, I can never be confident of him repeating those plays again. 

Andrew Luck playing well enough for defenses to not be focused on Mack. I like Mayfield but I don't think Chubb is getting quite the same benefit.

 
Volume is there but I was a bit disappointed with what he did against KC, which are the most favorable defense against running backs in fantasy this year. KC has given up HUGE games, but Chubb's was rather okay. Volume will be there, but it seems he needs volume to be considered a weekly RB2. I'm excited about the future, but ROS my expectations are tepid; if he can get me 12-14 points a game ROS I'll be thrilled- I don't see him as the home run I did a week or two ago. 

Don't get me wrong, I don't expect to bench him ROS except for his bye, but I was kind of hoping for some high end RB2 stats. Which still could be possible but I was hoping to see more vs KC

 
Dr. Dan said:
Volume is there but I was a bit disappointed with what he did against KC, which are the most favorable defense against running backs in fantasy this year. KC has given up HUGE games, but Chubb's was rather okay. Volume will be there, but it seems he needs volume to be considered a weekly RB2. I'm excited about the future, but ROS my expectations are tepid; if he can get me 12-14 points a game ROS I'll be thrilled- I don't see him as the home run I did a week or two ago. 

Don't get me wrong, I don't expect to bench him ROS except for his bye, but I was kind of hoping for some high end RB2 stats. Which still could be possible but I was hoping to see more vs KC
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Same.  With 22 carries Id have thought he ran for 100 yards in that game.

With these matchups you’d think he has some bigger games but like you said I’ll take 12-14 fantasy points a game at RB2 without complaining.

Was good to see Duke Johnson get some stats even if it limited Chubbs upside, I don’t own him but always liked the guy.

 
Dr. Dan said:
Don't get me wrong, I don't expect to bench him ROS except for his bye, but I was kind of hoping for some high end RB2 stats. Which still could be possible but I was hoping to see more vs KC
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Another TD would have been great. But if Chubb gets 15 to 20 points every week in PPR then I'll be content. 

 
jtp1982 said:
Same.  With 22 carries Id have thought he ran for 100 yards in that game.

With these matchups you’d think he has some bigger games but like you said I’ll take 12-14 fantasy points a game at RB2 without complaining.

Was good to see Duke Johnson get some stats even if it limited Chubbs upside, I don’t own him but always liked the guy.
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Jeesh. You guys are greedy. He's had two matchups where other RBs would have been completely game scripted out. Chubb getting that many carries for 80+ yards and a TD against THAT TEAM is great.

We still have yet to see his ceiling. All it will take is breaking one.

And then we'll be back to RB1 hoopla around here.

 
kyoun1e said:
Jeesh. You guys are greedy. He's had two matchups where other RBs would have been completely game scripted out. Chubb getting that many carries for 80+ yards and a TD against THAT TEAM is great.

We still have yet to see his ceiling. All it will take is breaking one.

And then we'll be back to RB1 hoopla around here
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You just used general assumptions about RBs playing against high scoring teams to make up a pretend KC defense.

8/9 games this year the opposing starting RB did not get “game scripted out” against the Chiefs. And no its actually not great to average less than 4 YPC against a team giving up more than 5 going into the game (which the Chiefs were).

Chubbs one rushing TD was actually below the average rushing TDs per game KC has allowed this season.

AND (wait for it) Im also a big believer Chubb has real season winner potential.  Why? Because reality is complex, hard to interpret, and trends don’t move in a single direction. That’s why I pay attention to as many data points I can get.  

Week 9’s just a single insignificant data point, BUT it’s still a data point Im going to add to the collection. That’s all the conversation you called greedy was actually doing.

Gather and rely on those data points to make decisions and over time you’ll find they were better decisions that won more fantasy games, even if the process is messier than making stuff up we’d like to be true.

 
https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1059585451324043264

Granted its a small sample size but this is pretty wild. Yards after contact per rush leaders (min. 25 rush attempts):
Nick Chubb - 4.61
Raheem Mostert - 4.35
Cam Newton - 4.04
Cordarrelle Patterson - 3.75
Austin Ekeler - 3.75
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He's going to be special.

jtd13 said:
I see a kid getting a Georgia Nick Chubb jersey for Christmas...
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Yeah, no idea what that was about. Here's the correct link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJrslMrLOdE

His TD run was a nice combination of patience, vision, and burst. 

 
jtp1982 said:
You just used general assumptions about RBs playing against high scoring teams to make up a pretend KC defense.

8/9 games this year the opposing starting RB did not get “game scripted out” against the Chiefs. And no its actually not great to average less than 4 YPC against a team giving up more than 5 going into the game (which the Chiefs were).

Chubbs one rushing TD was actually below the average rushing TDs per game KC has allowed this season.

AND (wait for it) Im also a big believer Chubb has real season winner potential.  Why? Because reality is complex, hard to interpret, and trends don’t move in a single direction. That’s why I pay attention to as many data points I can get.  

Week 9’s just a single insignificant data point, BUT it’s still a data point Im going to add to the collection. That’s all the conversation you called greedy was actually doing.

Gather and rely on those data points to make decisions and over time you’ll find they were better decisions that won more fantasy games, even if the process is messier than making stuff up we’d like to be true.
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The problem is you're just looking at the box score. You need to dig a little deeper if you're looking for reliable data points. Click on the link above and watch all his carries and try to complain about his 3.9 ypc. The dude was swarmed all game long, frequently hit behind the LoS. I agree KC's defense isn't generally good against the run, but clearly they played the run well in week 9. I haven't watched each KC game, but I imagine some of the stat lines by RBs were due to some gaping holes where the RB got to run untouched. Chubb had none of those this game, yet still managed to get close to 4 ypc. PFF states that over three quarters of his yards were after contact. That's pretty crazy. Chubb was out there doing work, but keep in mind this team just went through a dramatic coaching staff change. It's going to be tough sledding for him and the whole offense the rest of the season.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-refocused-nfl-week-9-kansas-city-chiefs-37-cleveland-browns-21

Nick Chubb ran the ball hard all game long, and his touchdown run was just desserts on the scoreboard for hard work, overcoming an average platform for much of the game. Chubb gained more than three quarters of his rushing yards after contact and broke multiple tackles to help give the Browns some balance on offense in spite of the Chiefs putting a lot of trash in his way at the line of scrimmage.
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I will shocked if he isn’t a top 10 rb the rest of the way with his schedule getting favorable. He’s got atlanta, Cincinnati(2), Houston,and Denver. Baltimore is week 17, which doesn’t even count for my league.

 
hardcoredx said:
I will shocked if he isn’t a top 10 rb the rest of the way with his schedule getting favorable. He’s got atlanta, Cincinnati(2), Houston,and Denver. Baltimore is week 17, which doesn’t even count for my league.
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I love Chubb, but the offense is a borderline disaster. I think hes a solid rb2 but that's about it. Unless some wrs step up in a big way it's going to be tough for him.

 
FF Ninja said:
The problem is you're just looking at the box score. You need to dig a little deeper if you're looking for reliable data points. Click on the link above and watch all his carries and try to complain about his 3.9 ypc. The dude was swarmed all game long, frequently hit behind the LoS. I agree KC's defense isn't generally good against the run, but clearly they played the run well in week 9. I haven't watched each KC game, but I imagine some of the stat lines by RBs were due to some gaping holes where the RB got to run untouched. Chubb had none of those this game, yet still managed to get close to 4 ypc. PFF states that over three quarters of his yards were after contact. That's pretty crazy. Chubb was out there doing work, but keep in mind this team just went through a dramatic coaching staff change. It's going to be tough sledding for him and the whole offense the rest of the season.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-refocused-nfl-week-9-kansas-city-chiefs-37-cleveland-browns-21
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My point was you can’t white wash stats you dont like and just make stuff up, and it is a valid point.

I own Chubb, am a big fan, and you don’t need to defend his performance to me.  I did watch some of that game live actually and thought he looked great.  

Yards after contact are a necessity if you’re gonna run behind that O line and he’s been getting them at an elite level whenever he’s played.  That’s why I have such high hopes for him.

 
mayfield will be better than ever in this new offense (already looked much improved)

defense will stop focusing solely on the run sooner than later.

 
jtp1982 said:
My point was you can’t white wash stats you dont like and just make stuff up, and it is a valid point.

I own Chubb, am a big fan, and you don’t need to defend his performance to me.  I did watch some of that game live actually and thought he looked great.  

Yards after contact are a necessity if you’re gonna run behind that O line and he’s been getting them at an elite level whenever he’s played.  That’s why I have such high hopes for him.
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I don't think that noting over 75% of Chubb's yards were after contact is white washing his stats. That's just putting things in context. I'd be shocked if the better performances against the Chiefs required nearly that many yards after contact. In fact, I bet the best performances were from RBs that had a lot of yards before contact.

The OL is a middle tier unit. The key will be getting things going through the air to keep defenses honest. With the coaching turnover, rookie QB, and questionable WR corps, I'm not sure that's going to happen.

 
I can't fully crush on him until he consistently gets receptions for us PPR leagues.

Although I must be somewhat If I'm reluctant to send Chubb/Rivers for Mixon in a re-draft.

 
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FF Ninja said:
I don't think that noting over 75% of Chubb's yards were after contact is white washing his stats. That's just putting things in context. I'd be shocked if the better performances against the Chiefs required nearly that many yards after contact. In fact, I bet the best performances were from RBs that had a lot of yards before contact.

The OL is a middle tier unit. The key will be getting things going through the air to keep defenses honest. With the coaching turnover, rookie QB, and questionable WR corps, I'm not sure that's going to happen.
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Yeah his situation definitely isn't great right now. But maybe the coaching change will help a bit in the receiving game, so there's still some RB1 upside ROS if they can get the offense going somehow. 

 
More concerned about Chubb this week against ATL than last against KC. A few reasons:

* D. Johnson emergence. Also coachspeak around getting him the ball. ATL could get up and it's throw to Duke time.

* CLE suddenly seems riddled with injuries in the secondary and offensive line. Helps M. Ryan/hurts Chubb.

* ATL quietly getting a little healthier on D.

Had locked Chubb in, but now considering A. Jones or M. Mack.

 
kyoun1e said:
More concerned about Chubb this week against ATL than last against KC. A few reasons:

* D. Johnson emergence. Also coachspeak around getting him the ball. ATL could get up and it's throw to Duke time.

Had locked Chubb in, but now considering A. Jones or M. Mack.
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Chubb not very involved in the passing game. I see the flip side of the Duke argument: any pass catcher that poses a threat to the defense means a bit less attention to Chubb. I could totally make the argument for Jones over Chubb. But not Mack. 

 
jdoggydogg said:
Chubb not very involved in the passing game. I see the flip side of the Duke argument: any pass catcher that poses a threat to the defense means a bit less attention to Chubb. I could totally make the argument for Jones over Chubb. But not Mack. 
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Agree. Chubb vs. Jones a tough call.

 
Grading all Day 2 rookies in the NFL after Week 9

Excerpt:

PICK 3, 35 OVERALL – CLEVELAND BROWNS: NICK CHUBB, RB

Overall grade: 88.8                              Overall rank: 1/60

Snaps played: 146

Chubb showed enough to the Browns that they traded Hyde to get him more playing time – and rightfully so. Chubb is the owner of the highest elusive rating among running backs, he has averaged a league-high 4.61 rushing yards after contact per attempt, and he has 18 avoided tackles on 74 rushing attempts.
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