Donnybrook
Footballguy
I thought David Johnson would get some love after a solid Senior Bowl.ZWK said:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000446050/article/mayock-northern-iowas-david-johnson-similar-to-charles-sims
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ZWK's 2015 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ZWK
- Start date
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000446050/article/mayock-northern-iowas-david-johnson-similar-to-charles-sims
Xue
Footballguy
Cobb is mix of Alfred Morris and Terrance West.
Mike Davis is Mark Ingram with a bit more quickness.
Robinson is CJ Anderson. Tackle-breaking machine.
EBF
Footballguy
I don't see a lot of Bell or Felix in his game.
For me Coleman is a tall and lean, but muscular sprinter type. Physically, he is built similarly to guys like Murray, Gordon, and Peterson. Going back a bit, Jerious Norwood is another player who comes to mind, though I think Coleman is more powerful than he was.
The big issue that I see with his running style is that he isn't very elusive. He's sort of like Andre Williams in the sense that he does his best work when he can get into a big lane and take advantage of his long strides, but struggles to evade or create his own yards when working in tight spaces. He can lower his shoulder and run with some power, but he doesn't have a lot of innate lower body mass or leg drive to naturally break tackles.
I'm not super high on him, but his stats were awesome on a junk team and you can't write him off completely.
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EBF
Footballguy
I feel like they have a different set of strengths and weaknesses and very different styles.
I have been slacking on 2015 stuff while I've been looking at devy players, but my quick take based on recollection:
Cobb - Really fluid runner with no wasted motion, but lacks explosiveness. Just a meat-and-potatoes grinder type of guy. Very solid with no glaring weaknesses, but just doesn't have that extra something to be a first round back.
Davis - Could potentially test more explosive than Cobb, but probably isn't as fluid. There is some wasted motion and awkwardness to his running style. The comparison I've been making is Ben Tate. I'm guessing that he'll be like that. A guy who shows flashes, but struggles for consistent effectiveness in the long haul.
Robinson - Probably the biggest wild card of this group for me. His lower body strength and power remind me of Michael Turner and MJD. Is he fast and explosive enough for the next level though? Sometimes he looks like a plodder and other times his burst and speed look pretty good. He's one I really think I need to go back and study more before I can try to say anything definitive. I'm on the fence about him right now.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
I basically agree with EBF here. Coleman is a straight-line runner who can run through some arm tackles if defenders are out of position, but (unlike Felix) he doesn't have much shiftiness to beat a second-level defender who is in position. He's probably the most boom-or-bust runner in this class (Andre Williams had that honor last year) - he can take it to the house if he has a lane, but he also has a lot of carries where he runs into traffic and gets taken down. You can see this mix in the Ohio State game - a few big runs, but also a ton of plays where he made nothing out of nothing.
I'd say that Robinson is the niftiest runner of the bunch, good at picking his way through traffic, and very good balance. He's a guy that you need to wrap up or else he'll bounce off and keep going.
Cobb is the second best of the three in that respect. He fights hard against being tackled, spinning/squirming/contorting so they can't bring him down cleanly & he can pick up extra yardage.
Davis probably has the best burst of the three. There is less that stands out about his running style.
Northern Iowa is FCS, so I don't have data on David Johnson. I did track elusiveness numbers for him, which are pretty good but not great (and against weak competition).
mcintyre1
Footballguy
I appreciate the effort, but to me this is a great example of overuse of statistics to determine the rankings of players, rather than actually watching the players play and using stats to support what you're seeing. ODB with a very mediocre rating relative to his peers last year? Duke Johnson as the #1 RB? Again, I appreciate that you're putting a lot of effort in to this, but I really think you're missing the forest (player skill and ability) for the trees (statistics).
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Can you guys direct me to the best site(s) for rookie and combined rankings moving forward with Dynasty in mind? I thought I saw a DLF or some other site mentioned previously.
I see many guys like to consider where a player would go in a startup draft I'm guessing to try to determine relative value. Any sites for ADP would be helpful as well.
I'm very thankful for the work you guys are doing in this thread and others.
I see many guys like to consider where a player would go in a startup draft I'm guessing to try to determine relative value. Any sites for ADP would be helpful as well.
I'm very thankful for the work you guys are doing in this thread and others.
ZWK
Footballguy
This year's WR draft class looks less exciting after removing the players that are not in fact part of this year's draft class, seeing several players weigh in smaller than expected at the Senior Bowl, and including age adjustments which make the seniors' production look a little less impressive.
Here are the pre-combine top 20, by my numbers (previous ranking here). The complete list (including underclassmen) and many of the stats that feed into these ratings are in this spreadsheet.
Rtg Player Team
8.73 Sammie Coates Auburn
8.44 Amari Cooper Alabama
8.21 DeVante Parker Louisville
5.96 Devante Davis UNLV
4.99 Kevin White WVU
4.48 Devin Smith Ohio State
4.43 Tyler Lockett Kansas St
4.27 John Harris Texas
4.10 Vince Mayle Wash St
4.03 Stefon Diggs Maryland
3.93 Ty Montgomery Stanford
3.89 Phillip Dorsett Miami (Fl)
3.45 Titus Davis C Mich
3.15 Breshad Perriman UCF
2.52 Tony Lippett Mich St
2.30 Dres Anderson Utah
1.75 Nelson Agholor USC
1.37 Devin Funchess Michigan
1.08 Antwan Goodley Baylor
0.26 Jaelen Strong Ariz St
The biggest risers since December are Sammie Coates - one guy who weighed in bigger than expected at the Senior Bowl (but who is likely to slide back down the rankings once I get data on drop rate) - and Kevin White, who had a nice bowl game (including two 40+ yard catches, one for a TD) and also gets a slight bump from a change to my formula which gives tall receivers more credit for their height. White still doesn't look like an elite prospect by my numbers, but his numbers are good enough so that if NFL teams like him then he does have the potential to live up to his billing.
The Devin Smith tier contains a lot of undersized WRs with good production. Phillip Dorsett turns out to be the same size as Tyler Lockett (and TY Hilton), Ty Montgomery measured at under 6' (rather than the 6'2" he was listed at), and Devin Smith came in skinnier than expected. Someone could still emerge from this tier (or even the tier below it) based on the combine, or as more metrics come in. By their current numbers, they do have some potential, but not at a level where I'd want to take any of them in the first round of a dynasty rookie draft.
Devante Davis has emerged as the lead sleeper by my numbers. He missed 5 games this year with a wrist injury, and wasn't especially impressive in the 8 games he played, but he has legit size (6'3 220 at the Senior Bowl) and had a huge 2013 season, dominating receiving production for UNLV. For deep sleepers, look at John Harris - a 6'2 215 receiver who did not get a combine invite even though Texas's yards per pass attempt was more than twice as high when they were throwing to him than when they threw elsewhere (10.1 vs. 4.9 YPA).
With White moving up in my ratings since December, Devin Funchess & Jaelen Strong now take his place as candidates for "most overrated" by conventional wisdom relative to my numbers. Funchess has an unusual profile - unusually big & tall, excellent production by some metrics (e.g., percent of team's 30+ yard receptions) but mediocre by others (e.g. yards per target) - which increases uncertainty about his future. (Kelvin Benjamin also had unusual size and uneven production across different metrics, though the production metrics that he excelled in were mostly the opposite of the ones that Funchess excelled in.) So Strong currently tops my "avoid" list.
Guys who didn't make the top 20: Rashad Greene, Justin Hardy, and Josh Harper all had production that was pretty middle-of-the-road for a guy who is the #1 receiver on his college team, which does not bode well for their NFL prospects. Greene & Hardy's raw totals were inflated by their teams' prolific passing offenses. Hardy, in particular, was basically just a possession receiver - only 8 of his 121 catches went for 25+ yards, and only 1 for 40+. Harper is actually a year older than his former teammate Davante Adams, who clearly outproduced him at Fresno State in 2013. Dorial Green-Beckham also had middle-of-the-road production in 2013 (with numbers extremely similar to teammate L'Damian Washington), but he (like Josh Gordon) got fewer chances to produce in college which at least gives him some excuse for never reaching elite production. Even more than Funchess, DGB gets an asterisk for high uncertainty / more potential than his raw numbers indicate.
Here are the pre-combine top 20, by my numbers (previous ranking here). The complete list (including underclassmen) and many of the stats that feed into these ratings are in this spreadsheet.
Rtg Player Team
8.73 Sammie Coates Auburn
8.44 Amari Cooper Alabama
8.21 DeVante Parker Louisville
5.96 Devante Davis UNLV
4.99 Kevin White WVU
4.48 Devin Smith Ohio State
4.43 Tyler Lockett Kansas St
4.27 John Harris Texas
4.10 Vince Mayle Wash St
4.03 Stefon Diggs Maryland
3.93 Ty Montgomery Stanford
3.89 Phillip Dorsett Miami (Fl)
3.45 Titus Davis C Mich
3.15 Breshad Perriman UCF
2.52 Tony Lippett Mich St
2.30 Dres Anderson Utah
1.75 Nelson Agholor USC
1.37 Devin Funchess Michigan
1.08 Antwan Goodley Baylor
0.26 Jaelen Strong Ariz St
The biggest risers since December are Sammie Coates - one guy who weighed in bigger than expected at the Senior Bowl (but who is likely to slide back down the rankings once I get data on drop rate) - and Kevin White, who had a nice bowl game (including two 40+ yard catches, one for a TD) and also gets a slight bump from a change to my formula which gives tall receivers more credit for their height. White still doesn't look like an elite prospect by my numbers, but his numbers are good enough so that if NFL teams like him then he does have the potential to live up to his billing.
The Devin Smith tier contains a lot of undersized WRs with good production. Phillip Dorsett turns out to be the same size as Tyler Lockett (and TY Hilton), Ty Montgomery measured at under 6' (rather than the 6'2" he was listed at), and Devin Smith came in skinnier than expected. Someone could still emerge from this tier (or even the tier below it) based on the combine, or as more metrics come in. By their current numbers, they do have some potential, but not at a level where I'd want to take any of them in the first round of a dynasty rookie draft.
Devante Davis has emerged as the lead sleeper by my numbers. He missed 5 games this year with a wrist injury, and wasn't especially impressive in the 8 games he played, but he has legit size (6'3 220 at the Senior Bowl) and had a huge 2013 season, dominating receiving production for UNLV. For deep sleepers, look at John Harris - a 6'2 215 receiver who did not get a combine invite even though Texas's yards per pass attempt was more than twice as high when they were throwing to him than when they threw elsewhere (10.1 vs. 4.9 YPA).
With White moving up in my ratings since December, Devin Funchess & Jaelen Strong now take his place as candidates for "most overrated" by conventional wisdom relative to my numbers. Funchess has an unusual profile - unusually big & tall, excellent production by some metrics (e.g., percent of team's 30+ yard receptions) but mediocre by others (e.g. yards per target) - which increases uncertainty about his future. (Kelvin Benjamin also had unusual size and uneven production across different metrics, though the production metrics that he excelled in were mostly the opposite of the ones that Funchess excelled in.) So Strong currently tops my "avoid" list.
Guys who didn't make the top 20: Rashad Greene, Justin Hardy, and Josh Harper all had production that was pretty middle-of-the-road for a guy who is the #1 receiver on his college team, which does not bode well for their NFL prospects. Greene & Hardy's raw totals were inflated by their teams' prolific passing offenses. Hardy, in particular, was basically just a possession receiver - only 8 of his 121 catches went for 25+ yards, and only 1 for 40+. Harper is actually a year older than his former teammate Davante Adams, who clearly outproduced him at Fresno State in 2013. Dorial Green-Beckham also had middle-of-the-road production in 2013 (with numbers extremely similar to teammate L'Damian Washington), but he (like Josh Gordon) got fewer chances to produce in college which at least gives him some excuse for never reaching elite production. Even more than Funchess, DGB gets an asterisk for high uncertainty / more potential than his raw numbers indicate.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
ZWK I was looking at your ratings for the WRs which allows you to sort between draft classes and compare them.
I was wondering what your ratings are for the RBs? Because that would enable a combined RB/WR list.
I was going to put that together and add it to this interesting thread started by Concept Coop the other day. But without a rating, I am not sure where the RB would slot with the WR.
I was wondering what your ratings are for the RBs? Because that would enable a combined RB/WR list.
I was going to put that together and add it to this interesting thread started by Concept Coop the other day. But without a rating, I am not sure where the RB would slot with the WR.
ZWK
Footballguy
I don't have a good way of comparing RBs with WRs (or other positions) from my stats-based ratings. I have numbers for RBs and for WRs, but they're on completely different scales which aren't designed to be compared with each other at all.
Normally I wait until after the draft to make cross-position comparisons. Then I can start with my generic rookie rankings and adjust from there.
The goal then is to have rankings that I can use to draft from, which take into account all of the information that's out there (including draft position & other people's opinions). That's a little different from most of what I'm doing in this thread - here I'm trying to give my own independent evaluations, attempting to ignore other people's opinions and do my own analysis. My independent analyses make it pretty straightforward to compare WRs with other WRs, but don't give me an obvious way to compare WRs to RBs.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
I don't think he is built as solidly in the lower half as Foster and Bell. Maybe it's just me, but his legs seem to be pretty skinny. He's kind of hit or miss in between the tackles because he seems to run a little bit high. But if he gets any space, his speed is as good as anyone's and he outruns angles pretty easily. Guys with his build can be pretty boom/bust and injury prone because they usually end up taking a lot of hits.
ZWK
Footballguy
One more sleeper to keep an eye on: Arizona WR Austin Hill.
6'2, 210. Biletnikoff Award semifinalist in 2012, with an extremely strong season by my production metrics (ahead of DeAndre Hopkins). Tore his ACL in practice and missed the 2013 season. Played at less than 100% this year and was pretty unimpressive (3rd on his team with 635 receiving yards). Didn't get invited to the combine, and was missing from my previous lists because I started with this year's top 100 receivers, but his career numbers put him up near Devin Smith by myformula. If he recovers and gets some athleticism back, he could have major upside for a mid-round pick.
6'2, 210. Biletnikoff Award semifinalist in 2012, with an extremely strong season by my production metrics (ahead of DeAndre Hopkins). Tore his ACL in practice and missed the 2013 season. Played at less than 100% this year and was pretty unimpressive (3rd on his team with 635 receiving yards). Didn't get invited to the combine, and was missing from my previous lists because I started with this year's top 100 receivers, but his career numbers put him up near Devin Smith by myformula. If he recovers and gets some athleticism back, he could have major upside for a mid-round pick.
ZWK
Footballguy
The main negative, in terms of production this year, was his yards per target. He had only 7.7 yards per target, when average for a team's WR1 is around 9.3. And this is despite playing on a good passing offense - Arizona State was nearly as effective when not throwing to him (7.6 YPA on passes not to Strong). Strong put up pretty nice totals, but he did it with volume.
Also, while he did have pretty good numbers on other metrics (TDs, yards per game, etc.), they weren't outstanding. Someone like Cooper just destroys him on pretty much every production metric. So his lousy YPT, along with pretty good numbers on other metrics, leaves him looking like an above average leading receiver for a college team, but not a special NFL prospect. Elite NFL WRs usually stand out more than that in college.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ah I understand. It would be interesting at least to me, to see the 2013 RB list compared to the 2014 RB list by your ratings for RB.
I was looking back at my 2013 rookie list and I did not have them sorted into the 3 tiers I sorted 2014 by. So that makes it difficult to cross compare them without hindsight getting in the way.
Boone22
Footballguy
Here's ZWK's 2014 rookie rankings thread...
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=706434&view=&hl=&fromsearch=1
ZWK
Footballguy
After the combine I'll post updated rankings, with comparisons to previous years. Comparing this year's class pre-combine to other classes post-combine would be a little tricky anyways because 1) I only have estimates for ht/wt/40, not the real measurements and 2) I don't even have estimates for the other combine drills, even though they matter in my formula post-combine (especially the jumps).
The weighins have already shaken things up a little bit, with Gordon, Abdullah, and Yeldon moving up and Coleman & Langford moving down. I'm guessing that the formulas will wind up putting Gordon in the same tier as Gurley, once he's had a chance to show off his jumping skills. Devin Smith is likely to rise among the WRs for similar reasons, and the weighins have been good news for DGB & Titus Davis, and bad news for Jaelen Strong and (to a lesser extent) Devin Funchess.
(My tiering hasn't been consistent from year to year, or even from post to post. I just add tier breaks when I post rankings in order to show where there is a relatively large dropoff between players that are ranked right next to each other.)
Biabreakable
Footballguy
ZWK what you are doing is very unique because of the way you compare college statistical production with a variety of other factors into compiling a overall rating. I have a lot of respect for the objectiveness of that, which is why I was curious how 2015 RB compare to 2014 by rating.
I have always liked ratings. even ones that are subjectively derived. For example Lance Zeirlein's ratings are based on where he projects the players to be drafted. Others use a score card of multiple different skills/abilities that rates each player by the same scale or grade. So there is some consistency in those processes that is translatable from one season to the next.
I wish I had a formula that would produce unique ratings for rookie players so I could make the process more consistent and precise (for what it is). I have thought about trying to develop that. But I am still too subjective in how I synthesize information into a ranking for it to be consistent and precise in the way that a rating is. I think a rating makes a better ranking.
After all data is gathered and research completed. There still needs to be a translation into what that means for fantasy football. What I have tried to do with my tiers is to at least separate players by what I think their highest career potential is into 3 groups. Top 12 caliber players, top 24 caliber players, watch list/fringe spot start caliber players. There is certainly a lot of guessing involved in that. But the tiers are based off of expected range of productivity of that player in fantasy. I do consider it an improvement from what I did in 2013 where all of the players were ranked together without enough consideration for which tier each of those ranked players belonged.
I have been enjoying the conversation going on in this thread related to the value of rookie picks in terms of VBD and I have been thinking about if there might be ways to reverse engineer that into a form of rating or projection, I think this would be very similar to your generic rookie rankings (IIRC those have projections) which could be based on expected draft position from mocks, rankings or ADP data, to fill in that part of the unknown.
I have always liked ratings. even ones that are subjectively derived. For example Lance Zeirlein's ratings are based on where he projects the players to be drafted. Others use a score card of multiple different skills/abilities that rates each player by the same scale or grade. So there is some consistency in those processes that is translatable from one season to the next.
I wish I had a formula that would produce unique ratings for rookie players so I could make the process more consistent and precise (for what it is). I have thought about trying to develop that. But I am still too subjective in how I synthesize information into a ranking for it to be consistent and precise in the way that a rating is. I think a rating makes a better ranking.
After all data is gathered and research completed. There still needs to be a translation into what that means for fantasy football. What I have tried to do with my tiers is to at least separate players by what I think their highest career potential is into 3 groups. Top 12 caliber players, top 24 caliber players, watch list/fringe spot start caliber players. There is certainly a lot of guessing involved in that. But the tiers are based off of expected range of productivity of that player in fantasy. I do consider it an improvement from what I did in 2013 where all of the players were ranked together without enough consideration for which tier each of those ranked players belonged.
I have been enjoying the conversation going on in this thread related to the value of rookie picks in terms of VBD and I have been thinking about if there might be ways to reverse engineer that into a form of rating or projection, I think this would be very similar to your generic rookie rankings (IIRC those have projections) which could be based on expected draft position from mocks, rankings or ADP data, to fill in that part of the unknown.
ZWK
Footballguy
Post-combine update (see spreadsheet for more):
Rtg Player Team
9.80 Amari Cooper Alabama
9.28 DeVante Parker Louisville
9.14 Sammie Coates Auburn
7.68 Kevin White WVU
6.64 Devin Smith Ohio State
5.56 Tyler Lockett Kansas St
5.10 Phillip Dorsett Miami (Fl)
4.82 Austin Hill Arizona
4.28 John Harris Texas
4.16 Devante Davis UNLV
4.15 Titus Davis C Mich
4.01 Stefon Diggs Maryland
3.89 Nelson Agholor USC
3.67 Ty Montgomery Stanford
3.07 Breshad Perriman UCF
The top 7 WRs on this list (through Dorsett) all helped their rating at the combine. The top 5 all score highly enough to be sprinkled among last year's top 10 WRs, with Cooper only rating behind Watkins & Evans and Smith rating between Lee & Adams.
Coates will probably drop a tier once I get drop rate data (if I use Zierlein's 19.1%, then he falls behind White). White's big combine let him stand out from the pack, but not enough to catch Cooper & Parker. Smith, Lockett, and Dorsett are undersized but athletic - Smith & Dorsett came on big this year as deep threats, while Lockett has had 2 years of very strong all around production. Dorial Green-Beckham would be in the last tier here (somewhere between Harris & Perriman) if I treated him as if he'd come out a year ago (which is sort of appropriate, since he didn't have a chance to produce this year). Nelson Agholor moved up into this tier with a nice 40, even though his finger injury kept him out of the other drills.
Moving down: Devante Davis, Vince Mayle, Tony Lippett, Devin Funchess. They all ran worse than expected, and had mediocre jumps. Funchess also came in a bit less tall than expected, which is a negative when being huge is your best attribute. Jaelen Strong's rating remains basically the same, with his smaller-than-expected size balancing out his better-than-expected athleticism.
I'll post more, including comparisons with previous draft classes, within the next few days.
Rtg Player Team
9.80 Amari Cooper Alabama
9.28 DeVante Parker Louisville
9.14 Sammie Coates Auburn
7.68 Kevin White WVU
6.64 Devin Smith Ohio State
5.56 Tyler Lockett Kansas St
5.10 Phillip Dorsett Miami (Fl)
4.82 Austin Hill Arizona
4.28 John Harris Texas
4.16 Devante Davis UNLV
4.15 Titus Davis C Mich
4.01 Stefon Diggs Maryland
3.89 Nelson Agholor USC
3.67 Ty Montgomery Stanford
3.07 Breshad Perriman UCF
The top 7 WRs on this list (through Dorsett) all helped their rating at the combine. The top 5 all score highly enough to be sprinkled among last year's top 10 WRs, with Cooper only rating behind Watkins & Evans and Smith rating between Lee & Adams.
Coates will probably drop a tier once I get drop rate data (if I use Zierlein's 19.1%, then he falls behind White). White's big combine let him stand out from the pack, but not enough to catch Cooper & Parker. Smith, Lockett, and Dorsett are undersized but athletic - Smith & Dorsett came on big this year as deep threats, while Lockett has had 2 years of very strong all around production. Dorial Green-Beckham would be in the last tier here (somewhere between Harris & Perriman) if I treated him as if he'd come out a year ago (which is sort of appropriate, since he didn't have a chance to produce this year). Nelson Agholor moved up into this tier with a nice 40, even though his finger injury kept him out of the other drills.
Moving down: Devante Davis, Vince Mayle, Tony Lippett, Devin Funchess. They all ran worse than expected, and had mediocre jumps. Funchess also came in a bit less tall than expected, which is a negative when being huge is your best attribute. Jaelen Strong's rating remains basically the same, with his smaller-than-expected size balancing out his better-than-expected athleticism.
I'll post more, including comparisons with previous draft classes, within the next few days.
ZWK
Footballguy
And here are the RBs, post-combine (with guys staying in school included, and this draft class in bold):
Nick Chubb Georgia FR
Melvin Gordon Wisconsin JR
Ameer Abdullah Nebraska SR
Todd Gurley Georgia JR
Jay Ajayi Boise St JR
Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State SO
Samaje Perine Oklahoma FR
Duke Johnson Miami (Fl) JR
Tevin Coleman Indiana JR
Byron Marshall Oregon JR
David Cobb Minnesota SR
Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte SO
Royce Freeman Oregon FR
Karlos Williams FSU SR
Cameron Artis-Payne Auburn SR
Kenneth Dixon La Tech JR
Jonathan Williams Arkansas JR
Alex Collins Arkansas SO
Shock Linwood Baylor SO
Derrick Henry Alabama SO
D.J. Foster Ariz St JR
Leonard Fournette LSU FR
Josh Robinson Miss St JR
Jeremy Langford Mich St SR
Kareem Hunt Toledo SO
T.J. Yeldon Alabama JR
Mike Davis S Carolina JR
Corey Grant Auburn SR
Devon Johnson Marshall JR
Noah Copeland Navy SR
I've kept the tiering in-line with my previous post, although there is actually a pretty steady dropoff from Chubb to Perine rather than a couple of big jumps. I don't have David Johnson in there because he was non-FBS, but his combine would be enough to put him up near Duke Johnson.
Short version: no big-time studs, 4 RBs who have some flaws but are worth getting excited about (Gordon, Abdullah, Gurley, Ajayi), 6 RBs who might be worth something (the Johnsons through Artis-Payne), and everyone else would be a stretch.
Three main risers: Abdullah weighed in bigger than expected and blew up the combine, except for his 40. Gordon also weighed in bigger than expected, matched his projected 40, and did pretty well at the rest of the combine. Ajayi was also solid in the non-40 drills, and just slightly slower than expected. And actually David Johnson had a better combine than any of them, with numbers almost as good as Abdullah in the non-40 drills, while also being significantly bigger and running a faster 40.
Two big fallers: Duke Johnson & Josh Robinson. Duke Johnson's combine was pretty mediocre - his alleged speed did not show up on the track. Robinson's was horrible - an optimistic forecast for him at this point is Saints UDFA. TJ Yeldon & Mike Davis also slid down the rankings, with pretty bad 40 times and mediocre numbers in the other drills.
Nick Chubb Georgia FR
Melvin Gordon Wisconsin JR
Ameer Abdullah Nebraska SR
Todd Gurley Georgia JR
Jay Ajayi Boise St JR
Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State SO
Samaje Perine Oklahoma FR
Duke Johnson Miami (Fl) JR
Tevin Coleman Indiana JR
Byron Marshall Oregon JR
David Cobb Minnesota SR
Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte SO
Royce Freeman Oregon FR
Karlos Williams FSU SR
Cameron Artis-Payne Auburn SR
Kenneth Dixon La Tech JR
Jonathan Williams Arkansas JR
Alex Collins Arkansas SO
Shock Linwood Baylor SO
Derrick Henry Alabama SO
D.J. Foster Ariz St JR
Leonard Fournette LSU FR
Josh Robinson Miss St JR
Jeremy Langford Mich St SR
Kareem Hunt Toledo SO
T.J. Yeldon Alabama JR
Mike Davis S Carolina JR
Corey Grant Auburn SR
Devon Johnson Marshall JR
Noah Copeland Navy SR
I've kept the tiering in-line with my previous post, although there is actually a pretty steady dropoff from Chubb to Perine rather than a couple of big jumps. I don't have David Johnson in there because he was non-FBS, but his combine would be enough to put him up near Duke Johnson.
Short version: no big-time studs, 4 RBs who have some flaws but are worth getting excited about (Gordon, Abdullah, Gurley, Ajayi), 6 RBs who might be worth something (the Johnsons through Artis-Payne), and everyone else would be a stretch.
Three main risers: Abdullah weighed in bigger than expected and blew up the combine, except for his 40. Gordon also weighed in bigger than expected, matched his projected 40, and did pretty well at the rest of the combine. Ajayi was also solid in the non-40 drills, and just slightly slower than expected. And actually David Johnson had a better combine than any of them, with numbers almost as good as Abdullah in the non-40 drills, while also being significantly bigger and running a faster 40.
Two big fallers: Duke Johnson & Josh Robinson. Duke Johnson's combine was pretty mediocre - his alleged speed did not show up on the track. Robinson's was horrible - an optimistic forecast for him at this point is Saints UDFA. TJ Yeldon & Mike Davis also slid down the rankings, with pretty bad 40 times and mediocre numbers in the other drills.
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ZWK
Footballguy
I don't have strong opinions about McBride, since he's non-FBS, but on the whole I'm not that impressed. I watch game cutups of RBs and can form some impressions of them based on what I see, but I don't do that with WRs. And WR success depends more on college performance and less on combine numbers, compared to RB success, so his lack of a track record against legit competition makes him hard for me to evaluate (moreso than for guys like David Johnson or Terrance West).
At first glance, his college stats don't even look that great - he doesn't seem to have dominated the Colonial Athletic Association the way that I'd expect an NFL caliber WR to do against that level of competition. Pierre Garcon put up 67/1212/17 in his best season at Mount Union; McBride topped out at 55/897/10 at William & Mary.
ZWK
Footballguy
This year's TE class looks pretty awful. Just looking at size/athleticism from the combine, there were 7 TEs in last year's class who were better than anyone in this class. Maxx Williams measured below average for a combine TE at height, weight, BMI, 40 time, short shuttle, and bench, and just slightly above average at broad & vertical.
One small school guy who might be worth keeping an eye on is Mycole Pruitt, an undersized move TE who led Southern Illinois in receiving (with an 81/861/13 statline) and ran a 4.58 40.
One small school guy who might be worth keeping an eye on is Mycole Pruitt, an undersized move TE who led Southern Illinois in receiving (with an 81/861/13 statline) and ran a 4.58 40.
ZWK
Footballguy
I've added every season back to 2008 to my college WR stats spreadsheet, so now we can compare the 2009-2015 WR classes by my numbers.
Here are the 21 WRs with the highest ratings over the past 7 years (this ranking is slightly different from what's in the spreadsheet - here I'm leaving out drop rate & YAC data from 2013-4 in order to make it more of a level playing field):
Class Player Round
2012 Stephen Hill 2
2014 Mike Evans 1
2015 Amari Cooper ?
2012 Justin Blackmon 1
2015 DeVante Parker ?
2015 Sammie Coates ?
2014 Donte Moncrief 3
2014 Sammy Watkins 1
2014 Brandin Cooks 1
2010 Demaryius Thomas 1
2009 Kenny Britt 1
2010 Dez Bryant 1
2011 Torrey Smith 2
2010 Danario Alexander udfa
2010 Golden Tate 2
2014 Jordan Matthews 2
2009 Michael Crabtree 1
2012 Alshon Jeffery 2
2011 A.J. Green 1
2015 Kevin White ?
2009 Hakeem Nicks 1
It's not perfect, but this is a pretty nice list of WRs, created entirely by crunching numbers (without watching any tape, or taking draft position or scouting reports into account). You can see the next 50 players in this list in the Top Rated tab of the spreadsheet, which has every WR with a rating above 4.00 by my formula. If you continue down that list, you'll find more star NFL WRs with good scores (Percy Harvin, Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, ...), although they're mixed among guys like Marvin McNutt and Ryan Swope. Highly rated players who were not drafted in the first 3 rounds generally have not done much in the NFL (though it's interesting to see names like Jermaine Kearse pop up), which is a strong sign that it's worth paying attention to draft position in combination with these scores.
There is a By Draft Pick tab in the spreadsheet which makes it easy to do that. I think that looking through that tab is the best way to get a sense of how much information the rating formula gives, beyond what you get from draft position. You can see, for example, that the highest rated players to be drafted in the third round are: Donte Moncrief, Terrance Williams, Stedman Bailey, Leonard Hankerson, Keenan Allen, Chris Givens, Damian Williams, Eric Decker, and T.Y. Hilton. The lowest rated third rounders are: Marquise Goodwin, Derrick Williams, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Price, Austin Pettis, Jerrel Jernigan, Deon Butler, DeVier Posey, and Patrick Turner. I know which group I'd prefer.
There is also an Elite WRs tab in the spreadsheet, which has every WR from the 2009 draft class or later who has at least 100 career VBD in the NFL (there are 16 of them so far). Most of them have high ratings by the formula.
Here's a rough summary of how I interpret the ratings (applied to this year's draft class).
7.5+ suggests an elite prospect. From 2009-2012, 12 WRs reached that mark. 11 of them were drafted in the first 2 rounds (the 12th is Danario Alexander), and 5 of them have already reached 100+ career VBD (Dez, Demaryius, Green, Jeffery, Nicks). (This year: Amari Cooper & DeVante Parker are well above the cutoff, Kevin White is slightly above it, and Sammie Coates is above it for now but maybe not once I have drop rate data.)
4.5 to 7.5 includes a mix of guys - some stars, some nobodies - and the NFL draft seems to do a pretty decent job of sorting them out (though there are some major busts, like AJ Jenkins & Jon Baldwin). 6 of the 16 WRs with 100+ VBD had a rating in this range, but this group also includes almost half of all players drafted in the first 3 rounds. Those 6 include 4 first rounders (Julio, Maclin, Harvin, Beckham) & 2 third rounders with elite QBs (Decker & Hilton). (This year: Devin Smith, Tyler Lockett, and Phillip Dorsett all look like pretty good prospects, but may be relatively situation-dependent - especially Lockett.)
Non-FBS and asterisks: players at non-FBS schools and players who had to stop playing college ball early are hard for me to judge because so much of my formula depends on college production, so I have to pay more attention to draft position, scouting reports, early production, etc. 2 of the 16 WRs with 100+ VBD fall into these categories (Cruz & Gordon). There are a variety of other reasons why you might think that the formula isn't doing a particular player justice and want to give an asterisk in his favor (e.g. Cordarrelle Patterson), but I think that liking a player for an asterisk reason generally comes with higher risk and I'd be careful about putting a player too high for special reasons. (This year non-FBS: Tre McBride, Dezmin Lewis. Left school early: Dorial Green-Beckham. Maybe other asterisks: Devin Funchess.)
-5 to 4.5 is a mediocre rating, which is generally a negative indication relative to a player's draft spot (moreso if they are lower in that range) but not a dealbreaker. 2 of the 16 WRs with 100+ VBD had ratings in this range, Randall Cobb & Mike Wallace. (This year: Jaelen Strong, Breshad Perriman, Nelson Agholar, and Devin Funchess probably won't end up on any of my teams.)
Below -5 is a pretty strong negative indicator (absent an asterisk). Just 1 of the 16 WRs with 100+ VBD falls into this category, even though it includes 23% of all WRs drafted in the first 3 rounds (2009-2014). That one was a pretty big miss, though: Antonio Brown (the NFL did miss on him too, for the first 5 rounds of the draft). (This year: Rashad Greene & Justin Hardy.)
Here are the 21 WRs with the highest ratings over the past 7 years (this ranking is slightly different from what's in the spreadsheet - here I'm leaving out drop rate & YAC data from 2013-4 in order to make it more of a level playing field):
Class Player Round
2012 Stephen Hill 2
2014 Mike Evans 1
2015 Amari Cooper ?
2012 Justin Blackmon 1
2015 DeVante Parker ?
2015 Sammie Coates ?
2014 Donte Moncrief 3
2014 Sammy Watkins 1
2014 Brandin Cooks 1
2010 Demaryius Thomas 1
2009 Kenny Britt 1
2010 Dez Bryant 1
2011 Torrey Smith 2
2010 Danario Alexander udfa
2010 Golden Tate 2
2014 Jordan Matthews 2
2009 Michael Crabtree 1
2012 Alshon Jeffery 2
2011 A.J. Green 1
2015 Kevin White ?
2009 Hakeem Nicks 1
It's not perfect, but this is a pretty nice list of WRs, created entirely by crunching numbers (without watching any tape, or taking draft position or scouting reports into account). You can see the next 50 players in this list in the Top Rated tab of the spreadsheet, which has every WR with a rating above 4.00 by my formula. If you continue down that list, you'll find more star NFL WRs with good scores (Percy Harvin, Odell Beckham, Julio Jones, ...), although they're mixed among guys like Marvin McNutt and Ryan Swope. Highly rated players who were not drafted in the first 3 rounds generally have not done much in the NFL (though it's interesting to see names like Jermaine Kearse pop up), which is a strong sign that it's worth paying attention to draft position in combination with these scores.
There is a By Draft Pick tab in the spreadsheet which makes it easy to do that. I think that looking through that tab is the best way to get a sense of how much information the rating formula gives, beyond what you get from draft position. You can see, for example, that the highest rated players to be drafted in the third round are: Donte Moncrief, Terrance Williams, Stedman Bailey, Leonard Hankerson, Keenan Allen, Chris Givens, Damian Williams, Eric Decker, and T.Y. Hilton. The lowest rated third rounders are: Marquise Goodwin, Derrick Williams, Mohamed Sanu, Taylor Price, Austin Pettis, Jerrel Jernigan, Deon Butler, DeVier Posey, and Patrick Turner. I know which group I'd prefer.
There is also an Elite WRs tab in the spreadsheet, which has every WR from the 2009 draft class or later who has at least 100 career VBD in the NFL (there are 16 of them so far). Most of them have high ratings by the formula.
Here's a rough summary of how I interpret the ratings (applied to this year's draft class).
7.5+ suggests an elite prospect. From 2009-2012, 12 WRs reached that mark. 11 of them were drafted in the first 2 rounds (the 12th is Danario Alexander), and 5 of them have already reached 100+ career VBD (Dez, Demaryius, Green, Jeffery, Nicks). (This year: Amari Cooper & DeVante Parker are well above the cutoff, Kevin White is slightly above it, and Sammie Coates is above it for now but maybe not once I have drop rate data.)
4.5 to 7.5 includes a mix of guys - some stars, some nobodies - and the NFL draft seems to do a pretty decent job of sorting them out (though there are some major busts, like AJ Jenkins & Jon Baldwin). 6 of the 16 WRs with 100+ VBD had a rating in this range, but this group also includes almost half of all players drafted in the first 3 rounds. Those 6 include 4 first rounders (Julio, Maclin, Harvin, Beckham) & 2 third rounders with elite QBs (Decker & Hilton). (This year: Devin Smith, Tyler Lockett, and Phillip Dorsett all look like pretty good prospects, but may be relatively situation-dependent - especially Lockett.)
Non-FBS and asterisks: players at non-FBS schools and players who had to stop playing college ball early are hard for me to judge because so much of my formula depends on college production, so I have to pay more attention to draft position, scouting reports, early production, etc. 2 of the 16 WRs with 100+ VBD fall into these categories (Cruz & Gordon). There are a variety of other reasons why you might think that the formula isn't doing a particular player justice and want to give an asterisk in his favor (e.g. Cordarrelle Patterson), but I think that liking a player for an asterisk reason generally comes with higher risk and I'd be careful about putting a player too high for special reasons. (This year non-FBS: Tre McBride, Dezmin Lewis. Left school early: Dorial Green-Beckham. Maybe other asterisks: Devin Funchess.)
-5 to 4.5 is a mediocre rating, which is generally a negative indication relative to a player's draft spot (moreso if they are lower in that range) but not a dealbreaker. 2 of the 16 WRs with 100+ VBD had ratings in this range, Randall Cobb & Mike Wallace. (This year: Jaelen Strong, Breshad Perriman, Nelson Agholar, and Devin Funchess probably won't end up on any of my teams.)
Below -5 is a pretty strong negative indicator (absent an asterisk). Just 1 of the 16 WRs with 100+ VBD falls into this category, even though it includes 23% of all WRs drafted in the first 3 rounds (2009-2014). That one was a pretty big miss, though: Antonio Brown (the NFL did miss on him too, for the first 5 rounds of the draft). (This year: Rashad Greene & Justin Hardy.)
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Why does Jaelen Strong have such a poor production score? When I look at his college stats they look good to me. I notice he has a -7.9 overall rating in 2013 .34 in 2014
Is it SOS hurting him?
I don't really understand why you have him rated so poorly I guess. He checks all the boxes for me.
Is it SOS hurting him?
I don't really understand why you have him rated so poorly I guess. He checks all the boxes for me.
ZWK
Footballguy
In his most productive season (2014) Strong averaged 7.70 yards per target (YPT), which was only 0.12 yards per attempt more than his team averaged when not throwing to him (YPT - TeamYPA). Those numbers are both very low - most of the 15 FBS WRs who have turned into successful pros had 10+ YPT in their most productive college season, and the lowest on those metrics among the 15 WRs is 8.39 YPT and 1.01 YPT-TeamYPA. Both of those are significantly better than Strong's numbers, and both of those lows belong to Randall Cobb (who was used in an unusual role).Biabreakable said:
From 2009-2014, 13 WRs were drafted in the first 3 rounds after putting up numbers similar to Strong's (in their most productive season) on either of those metrics - either below 8.20 YPT, or below 0.62 YPT-TeamYPA (those cutoffs are each half a yard better than Strong's numbers). Those 13 WRs are (in order of draft pick): Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Floyd, Justin Hunter, Arrelious Benn, Robert Woods, Aaron Dobson, Greg Little, Marquise Goodwin, Austin Pettis, Derrick Williams, Jerrel Jernigan, Mohamed Sanu, and Taylor Price.
Those are the numbers that are holding him down - if he was average on them then he'd be up near Devin Smith in my ratings.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Huh thanks for the explanation.
I do not see target data in your spread sheet. Wouldn't it also be good to look at catch rate? Receptions/target?
That would give you an idea of how good the receivers are at making the catch when targeted relative to each other.
Average depth of target would give you an idea of the types of targets the receiver is getting. If the player is being targeted on shorter passes their catch rate should be higher than ones who are primarily getting lower percentage looks.
Another thing to consider is 1st downs per reception. If the player is moving the chains. I consider that a successful target regardless of the distance covered. Jaelen Strong certainly has decent yards/catch numbers.
Jaelen Strong does not seem similar to the 13 players you listed.
DHB was primarily a deep ball WR with poor catching ability. I would put Justin Hunter in a similar category. None of these receivers seem consistent as Strong in catch rate with exception of perhaps Robert Woods. Greg Little is known to have poor catching ability. Something I do not think Strong has a problem with.
Many of these players are still young in their careers and have had other things influencing their lack of success in the NFL such as injuries in the case of Aaron Dobson or poor QB play in the case of most of them.
I think you may be putting too much emphasis on yards/target. Perhaps you have a good reason for doing that?
The explosiveness certainly does matter. But not all targets are really the same. If you are not considering catch rate, then a player could be very poor in that area while still doing well in the yards/target numbers.
I do not see target data in your spread sheet. Wouldn't it also be good to look at catch rate? Receptions/target?
That would give you an idea of how good the receivers are at making the catch when targeted relative to each other.
Average depth of target would give you an idea of the types of targets the receiver is getting. If the player is being targeted on shorter passes their catch rate should be higher than ones who are primarily getting lower percentage looks.
Another thing to consider is 1st downs per reception. If the player is moving the chains. I consider that a successful target regardless of the distance covered. Jaelen Strong certainly has decent yards/catch numbers.
Jaelen Strong does not seem similar to the 13 players you listed.
DHB was primarily a deep ball WR with poor catching ability. I would put Justin Hunter in a similar category. None of these receivers seem consistent as Strong in catch rate with exception of perhaps Robert Woods. Greg Little is known to have poor catching ability. Something I do not think Strong has a problem with.
Many of these players are still young in their careers and have had other things influencing their lack of success in the NFL such as injuries in the case of Aaron Dobson or poor QB play in the case of most of them.
I think you may be putting too much emphasis on yards/target. Perhaps you have a good reason for doing that?
The explosiveness certainly does matter. But not all targets are really the same. If you are not considering catch rate, then a player could be very poor in that area while still doing well in the yards/target numbers.
ZWK
Footballguy
My WR production formula gives similar weight to 4 things: total yardage, yards per target, TDs, and long receptions. In each case, it uses a mix of raw stats and team adjusted stats (e.g., this is counting both yards/game and % of team's passing yards under "total yardage"). There is also a bonus for other big plays and a SOS adjustment, and "career production" scores also adjust for age.
So, on the whole, something like 20% of a WR's production score comes from yards per target. That seems pretty reasonable to me. Yards/target comes the closest (out of those stats) to answering the question "when they threw him the ball, did good things happen?" and receivers with low yards/target in college have generally not had strong NFL careers.
Low yards/target could be due to any of: low catch rate, low average depth of target, or low YAC. I don't distinguish between them in my numbers; I think that any of them is a bad sign (low ADOP somewhat less than the others, although it does suggest that the player's yardage totals are inflated by a bunch of easy catches). In Strong's case, the low yards/target is mostly because of low catch rate - he caught only 54.7% of the passes that were thrown his way (Cooper & White each caught 71%; Parker caught 61% but had 21 YPR). I don't have separate data on depth of target & YAC, but Strong's 14.2 YPR is pretty much average.
This part of Strong's scouting report (which you posted in another thread) seems to match the concern about his low catch rate:
So, on the whole, something like 20% of a WR's production score comes from yards per target. That seems pretty reasonable to me. Yards/target comes the closest (out of those stats) to answering the question "when they threw him the ball, did good things happen?" and receivers with low yards/target in college have generally not had strong NFL careers.
Low yards/target could be due to any of: low catch rate, low average depth of target, or low YAC. I don't distinguish between them in my numbers; I think that any of them is a bad sign (low ADOP somewhat less than the others, although it does suggest that the player's yardage totals are inflated by a bunch of easy catches). In Strong's case, the low yards/target is mostly because of low catch rate - he caught only 54.7% of the passes that were thrown his way (Cooper & White each caught 71%; Parker caught 61% but had 21 YPR). I don't have separate data on depth of target & YAC, but Strong's 14.2 YPR is pretty much average.
This part of Strong's scouting report (which you posted in another thread) seems to match the concern about his low catch rate:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Thanks.
This made me realize I haven't seen any target data for 2014 college WR yet.
I have Jaelen Strong with 120 targets 75 receptions (62.5% catch rate) 1122 yards 9.4 yards per target 25.3% of targets 15 yards per catch in 2013. Shout out to Bill Conley for the target data.
2014 must have been really bad for the catch rate to drop to 54.7% coupled with a higher volume of targets.
150 targets 85 receptions would be a 54.7% catch rate and presumably a larger market share of the targets.
This made me realize I haven't seen any target data for 2014 college WR yet.
I have Jaelen Strong with 120 targets 75 receptions (62.5% catch rate) 1122 yards 9.4 yards per target 25.3% of targets 15 yards per catch in 2013. Shout out to Bill Conley for the target data.
2014 must have been really bad for the catch rate to drop to 54.7% coupled with a higher volume of targets.
150 targets 85 receptions would be a 54.7% catch rate and presumably a larger market share of the targets.
ZWK
Footballguy
If I was drafting rookies now, I think that this is the order I would take them in (taking into account other people's reports & rankings):
1 WR Amari Cooper
2 WR DeVante Parker
3 RB Todd Gurley
4 RB Melvin Gordon
5 WR Kevin White
6 QB Marcus Mariota
7 RB Jay Ajayi
8 QB Jameis Winston
9 WR Devin Smith
10 RB Ameer Abdullah
11 WR Dorial Green-Beckham
12 WR Sammie Coates
13 WR Breshad Perriman
14 WR Jaelen Strong
15 RB David Johnson
16 WR Tyler Lockett
17 RB Duke Johnson
18 WR Phillip Dorsett
19 RB Tevin Coleman
20 WR Devin Funchess
21 RB David Cobb
22 WR Nelson Agholar
23 TE Maxx Williams
24 WR Chris Conley
(Cross-posted from the Post Combine Rankings thread, where I also have a brief writeup.)
1 WR Amari Cooper
2 WR DeVante Parker
3 RB Todd Gurley
4 RB Melvin Gordon
5 WR Kevin White
6 QB Marcus Mariota
7 RB Jay Ajayi
8 QB Jameis Winston
9 WR Devin Smith
10 RB Ameer Abdullah
11 WR Dorial Green-Beckham
12 WR Sammie Coates
13 WR Breshad Perriman
14 WR Jaelen Strong
15 RB David Johnson
16 WR Tyler Lockett
17 RB Duke Johnson
18 WR Phillip Dorsett
19 RB Tevin Coleman
20 WR Devin Funchess
21 RB David Cobb
22 WR Nelson Agholar
23 TE Maxx Williams
24 WR Chris Conley
(Cross-posted from the Post Combine Rankings thread, where I also have a brief writeup.)
ZWK
Footballguy
I seem to be higher than most on Tyler Lockett, so let me make the case for him.
First question: who was the best receiver in college football over the past 2 years? Amari Cooper, this year's Biletnikoff winner, wasn't nearly as impressive in 2013. Similarly so with Biletnikoff finalists Rashard Higgins and Kevin White. Tyler Lockett stands out as a guy who had elite production both years, with over 100 yards per game and double digit touchdowns each season.
Over the past two seasons, Lockett is 2nd in receiving yards with 2777 (1 yard behind Justin Hardy) and 3rd in receiving TDs with 22 (2 behind Davante Adams). Among players with at least 1800 receiving yards, he's 2nd in yards per target with 10.8 (0.4 behind Rashard Higgins). He's accounted for a huge fraction of Kansas State's passing game (42% of the yards and 49% of the TDs), and he's done it efficiently, with a mix of long receiving plays (18 30+ yard gains, tied for 8th) and chain moving (34 3rd down conversions, 5th most).
Lockett has good speed - he ran a 4.40 at the combine - and scouting reports praise his route running, football smarts, and ability to create separation. He also showed off his playmaking skills as a returner, with 6 return TDs during his college career (4 on 77 kick returns and 2 on 32 punt returns).
The main knock on him is his size - Lockett (5'9.9" 182 lb.) is similar in size to Antonio Brown (5'10.1" 186 lb.), TY Hilton (5'9.6" 183 lb.), and John Brown (5'10.0" 179 lb.). That leads to questions about his ability to deal with press coverage from physical corners (though there were some positive reports about that at the senior bowl). There is also some talk about him dropping balls, but he had a pretty good drop rate according to Pat Kirwan's numbers.
Sometimes undersized receivers who produce in college have glaring flaws on tape that cause NFL teams to avoid them, but that doesn't seem to be the case with Lockett: he's currently being projected as a 2nd-3rd rounder (CBS has him as the 77th pick of the draft).
Lockett is not built like a prototypical #1, so there's some chance that he'll just be a slot receiver in the NFL. I do expect him to be more QB dependent that most WRs. But we've seen what Antonio Brown has done with Roethlisberger, what Hilton has done with Luck, and what the slightly larger Randall Cobb, Julian Edelman, and Emmanuel Sanders have done with Rodgers, Brady, and Manning. He does have upside.
First question: who was the best receiver in college football over the past 2 years? Amari Cooper, this year's Biletnikoff winner, wasn't nearly as impressive in 2013. Similarly so with Biletnikoff finalists Rashard Higgins and Kevin White. Tyler Lockett stands out as a guy who had elite production both years, with over 100 yards per game and double digit touchdowns each season.
Over the past two seasons, Lockett is 2nd in receiving yards with 2777 (1 yard behind Justin Hardy) and 3rd in receiving TDs with 22 (2 behind Davante Adams). Among players with at least 1800 receiving yards, he's 2nd in yards per target with 10.8 (0.4 behind Rashard Higgins). He's accounted for a huge fraction of Kansas State's passing game (42% of the yards and 49% of the TDs), and he's done it efficiently, with a mix of long receiving plays (18 30+ yard gains, tied for 8th) and chain moving (34 3rd down conversions, 5th most).
Lockett has good speed - he ran a 4.40 at the combine - and scouting reports praise his route running, football smarts, and ability to create separation. He also showed off his playmaking skills as a returner, with 6 return TDs during his college career (4 on 77 kick returns and 2 on 32 punt returns).
The main knock on him is his size - Lockett (5'9.9" 182 lb.) is similar in size to Antonio Brown (5'10.1" 186 lb.), TY Hilton (5'9.6" 183 lb.), and John Brown (5'10.0" 179 lb.). That leads to questions about his ability to deal with press coverage from physical corners (though there were some positive reports about that at the senior bowl). There is also some talk about him dropping balls, but he had a pretty good drop rate according to Pat Kirwan's numbers.
Sometimes undersized receivers who produce in college have glaring flaws on tape that cause NFL teams to avoid them, but that doesn't seem to be the case with Lockett: he's currently being projected as a 2nd-3rd rounder (CBS has him as the 77th pick of the draft).
Lockett is not built like a prototypical #1, so there's some chance that he'll just be a slot receiver in the NFL. I do expect him to be more QB dependent that most WRs. But we've seen what Antonio Brown has done with Roethlisberger, what Hilton has done with Luck, and what the slightly larger Randall Cobb, Julian Edelman, and Emmanuel Sanders have done with Rodgers, Brady, and Manning. He does have upside.
saintfool
Dead sexy
if Locket is "only" a slot WR then where he lands is critical. as you highlighted, ZWK, there are productive small-ish WRs in the league who get moved around and are WR1 for their teams. he's flying below the radar especially when other simiar players, like Dorsett, are getting hyped. there's room for them both in the discussion but the value here is all about situation.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
When I watched Tyler Lockett I was very impressed with him. Despite his stature, he is very physical at times and does a good job of going up and getting the ball. He has excellent hands and some decent shake to help him get open and make yards after the catch.
I currently have him in the second tier of rookie prospects. After Devin Smith, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett. But I could see him possibly being ahead of these WR and perhaps even in tier 1b with a good situation and high pick (2nd round) in the NFlL draft.
I currently have him in the second tier of rookie prospects. After Devin Smith, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett. But I could see him possibly being ahead of these WR and perhaps even in tier 1b with a good situation and high pick (2nd round) in the NFlL draft.
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ZWK
Footballguy
I don't do much with defensive prospects, but I did take a look at edge rushers. Vic Beasley is the one guy who stands out as having both excellent production (sacks & tackles for a loss) and excellent workout numbers (combine drills & size).
Shane Ray might be the #2 - he missed the combine with an injured foot, but had similar production this year and is rumored to have elite athleticism.
Nate Orchard & Hauoli Kikaha had even better college production, but average athleticism. Bud Dupree & Owamagbe Odighizuwa had excellent combines, but just average production. Preston Smith, Eli Harold, and Dante Fowler were pretty good on both, but not on the same level as Beasley at either. Randy Gregory produced even less than that group this year, although if we included 2013 production he'd be with them.
Ray, Orchard, Odighizuwa, and Smith were also one-year wonders in terms of production; not sure how much that matters.
Shane Ray might be the #2 - he missed the combine with an injured foot, but had similar production this year and is rumored to have elite athleticism.
Nate Orchard & Hauoli Kikaha had even better college production, but average athleticism. Bud Dupree & Owamagbe Odighizuwa had excellent combines, but just average production. Preston Smith, Eli Harold, and Dante Fowler were pretty good on both, but not on the same level as Beasley at either. Randy Gregory produced even less than that group this year, although if we included 2013 production he'd be with them.
Ray, Orchard, Odighizuwa, and Smith were also one-year wonders in terms of production; not sure how much that matters.
Johnny Rock
Footballguy
Great work ZWK. 
I love to combine some raw analysis with the eye test to form opinions. Your stuff gets a guy thinking which is good.
I love to combine some raw analysis with the eye test to form opinions. Your stuff gets a guy thinking which is good.
ZWK
Footballguy
Combine snub Austin Hill had a pretty good Pro Day - size & speed were close to what's advertised (6'2.25", 214 lb., 4.57 40), and he jumped well (particularly the 10'9" broad jump). There are also positive reports about how he looked in the WR drills. His workout numbers solidify his spot near Philip Dorsett according to my ratings formula. My formula isn't that great at identifying sleepers, but Hill also has a pretty clear story for why he'd be underrated. So for him I'm inclined to trust my formula a little more than usual and his draft position a little less than usual.
Texas WR John Harris (March 24) and Indiana RB Tevin Coleman (April 15) are the main two pro days that I'm still waiting on. Harris is another sleeper WR, but probably not as good a sleeper as Hill - my formula doesn't like him quite as much, and he has less of an excuse for getting snubbed. Coleman could easily wind up anywhere in the 5-8 range in my RB rankings. David Cobb also still has a 40 to run after pulling his quad mid-run at the combine, but he probably won't move that much since he already did the jumps at the combine (also, his 10 yard split of 1.64 was pretty consistent with his predicted 40 time of 4.58).
ZWK
Footballguy
Dribs and drabs of non-box-score stats are coming out about this year's draft class, though unfortunately most sources are only sharing stats on a few players.
QB
Greg Peshek has his first article of this offseason, which compares Winston, Mariota, and Hundley on various breakdowns including deep passes, passing under pressure, and passes outside the numbers. Mariota has the best numbers (particularly under pressure and on deep balls), slightly better (on the whole) than last year's statistically top QB (Bridgewater). Winston has averageish numbers, pretty clearly behind Mariota (and Bridgewater, Bortles, and Manziel), similar to McCarron, Carr, and Mettenberger's numbers last year. Hundley is the worst of the this year 3; what sticks out the most is his low accuracy on anything over 10 yards.
For example, here are Peshek's numbers for completion percentage under pressure:
67.7 Mariota
63.2 Bortles
63.0 Bridgewater
60.4 Manziel
57.7 Winston
56.8 McCarron
50.0 Carr
50.0 Mettenberger
50.0 Murray
46.4 Hundley
38.9 Boyd
35.1 Shaw
Pro Football Focus published a Mariota vs. Winston comparison a couple months ago, which was fairly similar in its conclusions for those two.
WR
Pat Kirwan has shared drop rate numbers for a few WRs. The standard for what counts as a "drop" can differ for different sources, but this at least lets us compare these WRs to each other:
11.1% Sammie Coates
7.7% Vince Mayle
3.8% Tyler Lockett
3.0% Kevin White
2.9% Justin Hardy
1.4% Rashad Greene
Pro Football Focus apparently has drop rate data on 91 receivers; they have tweeted the numbers for 3 of them. It looks like they have a harsher standard than Kirwan for what counts as a drop, so I wouldn't compare the exact numbers from the two sources directly:
13.0% Breshad Perriman (81st out of 91)
4.6% Amari Cooper
3.9% Rashad Greene
Greg Zierlein reported Sammie Coates as having a 19.1% drop rate over the past 2 seasons.
Bottom line: Coates & Perriman look to have a drops problem; Cooper, White, Lockett, Hardy, and Greene don't.
RB
ESPN apparently has data on RB yards after contact per carry, and shared this season's top 4: Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb, Josh Robinson, and Tevin Coleman. I'm a little surprised to see Gurley there - he did pretty well in my elusiveness numbers but wasn't that close to the top. Not at all surprised about the other 3: Chubb & Robinson are the top 2 in my numbers (though in a small sample size), and Coleman was near the top in my numbers (and I'd expect him to do better in yards after contact than in my capped yards after contact metric, since he broke several long runs that included a broken tackle).
Dane Brugler shared fumble rates for RBs. Abdullah has the biggest fumbling problem, while Gurley is the surest ballcarrier among high-profile prospects. Here are the number of touches per fumble:
QB
Greg Peshek has his first article of this offseason, which compares Winston, Mariota, and Hundley on various breakdowns including deep passes, passing under pressure, and passes outside the numbers. Mariota has the best numbers (particularly under pressure and on deep balls), slightly better (on the whole) than last year's statistically top QB (Bridgewater). Winston has averageish numbers, pretty clearly behind Mariota (and Bridgewater, Bortles, and Manziel), similar to McCarron, Carr, and Mettenberger's numbers last year. Hundley is the worst of the this year 3; what sticks out the most is his low accuracy on anything over 10 yards.
For example, here are Peshek's numbers for completion percentage under pressure:
67.7 Mariota
63.2 Bortles
63.0 Bridgewater
60.4 Manziel
57.7 Winston
56.8 McCarron
50.0 Carr
50.0 Mettenberger
50.0 Murray
46.4 Hundley
38.9 Boyd
35.1 Shaw
Pro Football Focus published a Mariota vs. Winston comparison a couple months ago, which was fairly similar in its conclusions for those two.
WR
Pat Kirwan has shared drop rate numbers for a few WRs. The standard for what counts as a "drop" can differ for different sources, but this at least lets us compare these WRs to each other:
11.1% Sammie Coates
7.7% Vince Mayle
3.8% Tyler Lockett
3.0% Kevin White
2.9% Justin Hardy
1.4% Rashad Greene
Pro Football Focus apparently has drop rate data on 91 receivers; they have tweeted the numbers for 3 of them. It looks like they have a harsher standard than Kirwan for what counts as a drop, so I wouldn't compare the exact numbers from the two sources directly:
13.0% Breshad Perriman (81st out of 91)
4.6% Amari Cooper
3.9% Rashad Greene
Greg Zierlein reported Sammie Coates as having a 19.1% drop rate over the past 2 seasons.
Bottom line: Coates & Perriman look to have a drops problem; Cooper, White, Lockett, Hardy, and Greene don't.
RB
ESPN apparently has data on RB yards after contact per carry, and shared this season's top 4: Todd Gurley, Nick Chubb, Josh Robinson, and Tevin Coleman. I'm a little surprised to see Gurley there - he did pretty well in my elusiveness numbers but wasn't that close to the top. Not at all surprised about the other 3: Chubb & Robinson are the top 2 in my numbers (though in a small sample size), and Coleman was near the top in my numbers (and I'd expect him to do better in yards after contact than in my capped yards after contact metric, since he broke several long runs that included a broken tackle).
Dane Brugler shared fumble rates for RBs. Abdullah has the biggest fumbling problem, while Gurley is the surest ballcarrier among high-profile prospects. Here are the number of touches per fumble:
ZWK
Footballguy
It turns out that Gurley's 2 worst games, out of the 7 I've charted, were in 2013 (against Florida & Auburn - if you want to see Gurley doing a whole lot of nothing, watch the Auburn video from 1:55-5:48). His numbers in the four 2014 games that I've charted would put him up near the top.
The most broken tackles I've seen is still Nick Chubb against Auburn (Josh Robinson against LSU is pretty nice too).
ZWK
Footballguy
Here's a sample of how I come up with my number: Gurley's first 8 carries against Auburn in 2014, which are in this video from 0:53-2:11.
On his first carry, a defender catches him in the backfield near the 32 yard line, fights through the stiff-arm, and succeeds in bringing Gurley down short of the 35. This goes in my books as "s 0 3" - it started out in space rather than traffic (Gurley had just one defender to beat, and room to maneuver), Gurley broke 0 tackles, and he gained 3 yards from where he was when the defender had the initial tackling opportunity.
On his second carry, the defender meets him in the backfield shortly after the handoff, between the 30 & 31, and he goes down between the 31 & 32. That goes down as "t 0 1" - in traffic (this is a bit of a judgment call, but Gurley didn't have much time to react after the handoff and a second defender closing in behind kept him from having room to cut back), 0 broken tackles, 1 yard after contact.
On his third carry, Gurley runs parallel to the line of scrimmage, fights off one defender near the line of scrimmage near the 20, turns downfield and slips through an arm tackle around the 15, and goes out of bounds around the 9. That goes down as "s 2 11" - in space, 2 broken tackles, 11 yards after the initial tackling opportunity.
At the 1:19 mark, Gurley faces a defender one-on-one as he tries to bounce it outside. He's just inside the 9 when the defender meets him, and he dives/falls/gets swung forward just past the 7. That's "s 0 2".
Next possession (after a touchdown pass), Gurley runs through a nice hole up the middle and is near the 23 when a defender first has a real shot at him. That defender jumps on his back, and he goes down at the 26. I counted that as "s 0 3" (space vs. traffic is a bit of a judgment call - there were other players in the area, but when a RB is at the second level running with a full head of steam I tend to lean towards counting it as "space" unless it's an extremely tight crease or multiple defenders are converging on him at once).
Next carry, Gurley runs into a pile of bodies around the 28, it seems to end up down at the 29. "t 0 1".
At 1:54, Gurley runs to the outside heading towards space, but two defenders close in to meet him near the Auburn 16. One defender dives for his legs, and it looks like Gurley might be able to bounce off it, but the other helps clean up. Gurley falls forward and ends up down near the 14. "t 0 2" (traffic because he was facing two defenders; no credit for a broken tackle if you're facing two defenders and you beat one while the other takes you down - and in this case it's not even clear that he did beat the one defender who went for his legs).
Next carry, Gurley runs straight into a body or two at the 15 and gets swallowed up and knocked back & to the ground. "t 0 0".
Those are his first 8 carries of the game. They go in my notes simply as:
s 0 3
t 0 1
s 2 11
s 0 2
s 0 3
t 0 1
t 0 2
t 0 0
If I had to use just one stat to measure elusiveness, it would be the one that I label YATOCAT - Yards After Tackling Opportunity Capped At Ten (aka capped yards after contact). Gurley had 22 yards of YATOCAT on those 8 carries (23 yards after contact, but the 11 YAC carry only counts as 10 because of the cap), giving him a 2.75 average.
That was a below average set of carries for Gurley - for that game as a whole he was at 3.15 YATOCAT, and for the 7 games I've charted he was at 3.35. But the main point here is to show the method, not to share a perfectly representative set of Gurley's carries.
Since I'm not limited to just one stat, I also calculate several others.
SYATOCA15 (aka capped space YAC). Gurley had 4 carries in space, and 19 capped YAC on those carries (the cap is at 15, so he gets credit for all 11 yards on that one carry), for a SYATOCA15 of 4.75.
TYATOCA8 (aka capped traffic YAC). Gurley had 4 carries in traffic, and 4 capped YAC on those carries, for a TYATOCA8 of 1.00.
Broken Tackle Rate. Gurley had 2 broken tackles on 8 carries, for a 25% broken tackle rate.
Space Broken Tackle Rate. Gurley had 2 broken tackles on 4 space carries, for a 50% space broken tackle rate.
Traffic Broken Tackle Rate. Gurley had 0 broken tackles on 4 traffic carries, for a 0% traffic broken tackle rate.
3+ Extra Rate (on plays without a broken tackle, the percent on which there were at least 3 yards after contact). Gurley had 7 carries which involved no broken tackles, and gained 3+ yards after contact on 2 of them, for a 29% 3+ Extra Rate.
Traffic 3+ Extra Rate (on plays in traffic, the percent on which there were at least 3 yards after contact). Gurley had 4 carries in traffic (including carries with or without a broken tackle), and gained 3+ YAC on 0 of them, for a 0% traffic 3+ extra rate.
The traffic vs. space distinction is there because it's much easier to break tackles and get YAC in space, and some offenses give the RB the ball in space a lot more often. If I didn't calculate them separately, the RBs who get the ball in space a lot would tend to look better. This also helps break down a runner's skillset - we can see in my RB elusiveness spreadsheet that David Cobb did extremely well in traffic but was averageish in space, and that Ameer Abdullah did pretty well in traffic despite his small size.
The cap on YAC is there because, if a RB breaks a long run after breaking a tackle, that inflates his YAC stats a lot even though most of those yards don't tell us much about his ability to deal with contact. I use a higher cap for space (15) than for traffic (8) because it's common for a RB to drive forward several yards against a single DB in space before going down, and I want to give a RB who beats the defender and gets past him cleanly noticeably more credit than one who just pushes a DB back for a few yards and then falls forward.
The 3+ Extra Rate seems meaningful because it measures how well the RB is able to fight for the extra yard rather than being taken down cleanly. 1-2 yards after contact can come just from falling forward, but 3+ takes something more from the runner. Making a guy miss in space is a different skill, so I leave those carries out of this calculation. Broken tackles in traffic often do involve the "fighting for extra yards" skill, so I do count plays with a broken tackle in the Traffic 3+ Extra Rate stat.
My overall Hard To Tackle Rating is just a weighted sum of these stats (with the capped YAC stats getting more weight than the broken tackle stats which get more weight than the 3+ Extra stats), plus a strength of schedule adjustment. I wrote more about it in this thread last year.
EastonBlues22
Footballguy
I really enjoy hearing the opinions of a good number of posters on here when it comes to prospect discussion, but your work is by far the most fascinating.
Thanks for all the effort you put into this, and your willingness to share it with us.
Thanks for all the effort you put into this, and your willingness to share it with us.
jurb26
Footballguy
Only 7 games of Gurley are charted in 3 years?Seems like sample size could be an issue.
From the NFL.com write up;
"STRENGTHS Rare blend of speed and power. Immense power in legs and shows balance through contact. Shreds arm tackles and has speed to house it. Very hard to tackle on an angle. Professional, decisive runner. Presses line of scrimmage to set up his cut-back runs. Gets downhill with knee bend and forward lean, staying small through the hole. Uses quick, tight steps to second level. Will sink and explode into tackler or side-step and jet, causing hesitation in downhill safeties with their approach. Converts "speed to power" between tackles and around corner. Rarely looks to run out of bounds and finishes his runs. Able to factor out of the backfield with soft hands and ability to adjust to throws. In 2014, churned out an amazing 61.9 percent of his rushing yardage after contact. Strong hands and carries ball tight to his body. Only three fumbles in 510 carries."
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/todd-gurley?id=2552475
61.9% of his yds came after contact in 14'. I'm not sure where that number would rank vs. everyone else but I'm guessing pretty high or they wouldn't even mention it, let alone say "amazing."
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