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RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL


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Zeke's dynasty value remains elite, in my estimation.  A lot of people seem to be chicken littleing because the Dallas offense is struggling without Dak right now, but Zeke is only 25 years old, he has never had a serious injury, and, despite his current woes, there is no indication Zeke's skills have suddenly diminished.  The Dallas O-line is struggling, defenses are stacking the box, and Zeke has gutted it out through a lingering hamstring injury.  Relax.  With the return of Dak Prescott in 2021, the Cowboys should have one of the more prolific offenses in the league.  Opposing defenses will have to contend with a myriad of weapons downfield, and that should open up the running game for Zeke.  I'm not selling my shares of Zeke for anything less than top dollar.  This isn't the time to sell Zeke.  It is the time to buy low in dynasty where you can from owners who are panicking.

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2 hours ago, socrates said:

Zeke's dynasty value remains elite, in my estimation.  A lot of people seem to be chicken littleing because the Dallas offense is struggling without Dak right now, but Zeke is only 25 years old, he has never had a serious injury, and, despite his current woes, there is no indication Zeke's skills have suddenly diminished.  

"It's not the years, honey...it's the mileage."

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14 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

"It's not the years, honey...it's the mileage."

Exactly! He looks slow, unable to break the first tackle and has put the ball on the carpet at an alarming rate. Despite no serious injuries, he has major tread on those tires and the heavy workload has taken its toll. Say what you want, but Pollard looks substantially quicker and more elusive. I know they have big invested in Zeke, but if they want to put a better product on the field, this would become a timeshare and Pollard would at least be featured in a passing down role. If I remember correctly, Bloom had Pollard on his buy low list a few weeks back. In my opinion, now is the time to buy low on Pollard in dynasty leagues.  

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2 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

"It's not the years, honey...it's the mileage."

It been awhile but I have seen studies done on this and mathematically no correlation was found between a certain threshold of carries and a players performance declining. What was found is that the more a player carries the ball, the more likely it is the player will carry the ball frequently in the future.

I am pretty sold on this and I feel that this angle has been pretty thoroughly debunked. I think that is why we don't hear about it as often now as we used to. Also teams are just not giving their RB the ball as much as they used to, for this to even be an issue that comes up much now days.

Yet just the other day I am listening to Gary Kubiak who is being asked about Cooks workload and he says flat out that they know about these things, which suggests there is a certain number of carries or a threshold that the coaches are looking at when managing their players and making decisions about them long term.

So if Gary says its a fact I am willing to revisit this although I still remain skeptical. 

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5 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

It been awhile but I have seen studies done on this and mathematically no correlation was found between a certain threshold of carries and a players performance declining. What was found is that the more a player carries the ball, the more likely it is the player will carry the ball frequently in the future.

I'd be interested in seeing how that data was interpreted because that just seems absurd on its face. 

I'd start with "what was the threshold" and then ask "is that from game to game or year to year"? For the second question I could buy the conclusion for game to game but not year to year.

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22 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'd be interested in seeing how that data was interpreted because that just seems absurd on its face. 

I'd start with "what was the threshold" and then ask "is that from game to game or year to year"? For the second question I could buy the conclusion for game to game but not year to year.

The studies I am talking about looked at the total number of carries in a season and how many carries that player historically had in year N +1 and the more carries the RB had the more likely it was for them to have a lot of carries again in the following season.

Obviously the player is going to fall off at some point of their career and I think that is what Gary is talking about although I suppose its possible he is talking about a number of carries in a game instead. I guess I would need to listen to that again. He doesn't go into detail at all but my ears did perk up about how certain he sounded about this being a thing.

I will give this idea some more attention in regards to Elliot in days ahead.

According to the VBD study I did Elliot should have 3 more useful season left based on his age coming in to the league and his draft position. He is in the group that beats the average for their careers.

 

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So here is an article talking about RB performance declining after the player has 1800 total carries. Seems pretty straight forward right? But the sample only includes 8 players. I don't think that is enough.

Reaching this number of carries is a feat within itself as there are only 51 players to have 1800 or more rushing attempts. This would be the sample to use to see if this found trend for 8 players actually applies to all of them or not and to what extent?

At an average of 300 rushing attempts per season this would be 6 seasons to reach this number. Which is where we see decline in RB performance from my study, after six seasons. It still isn't clear to me what the cause is. Is it the number of carries? The mileage? Or is it because of the players age? It takes time to accumulate that many rushing attempts and by the time they do, they are also old by then. So was it the carries? Or was it because of their age?

Obviously a ton of players production declines before they reach 1800 carries, with only 51 players ever reaching this threshold. The RB necessarily must be old by the time they do reach 1800.

I will run the numbers on the 51 players and see what that says, but I am already seeing how cooked the books are here though and I think the conclusion of the author I quoted is misleading.

FWIW Elliot currently has 1319 rushing attempts. So by this method he still has 580 to go before reaching this threshold. At 20 carries per game career average this is 29 more games 7 of which will be played this season, so 22 more left or a season and a half before he reaches the 1800 mark.  The decline is not necessarily precipitous either but gradual. So Elliot may still be valuable beyond 1800 even if his performance sees a 18% decline in rushing yards.

For the purpose of this study I will not include players who retired before their decline like Barry Sanders. I also won't include players who fell off because of injury. We are trying to identify the players who wear down due to mileage, not fall off a cliff for things completely unrelated to that.

 

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7 hours ago, FGITLOTR said:

Exactly! He looks slow, unable to break the first tackle and has put the ball on the carpet at an alarming rate. Despite no serious injuries, he has major tread on those tires and the heavy workload has taken its toll. Say what you want, but Pollard looks substantially quicker and more elusive. I know they have big invested in Zeke, but if they want to put a better product on the field, this would become a timeshare and Pollard would at least be featured in a passing down role. If I remember correctly, Bloom had Pollard on his buy low list a few weeks back. In my opinion, now is the time to buy low on Pollard in dynasty leagues.  

I think that is the hamstring more than anything.  Pollard wasn't getting meaningful work until Zeke picked up the hamstring injury and looked bad.

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5 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I'd be interested in seeing how that data was interpreted because that just seems absurd on its face. 

I'd start with "what was the threshold" and then ask "is that from game to game or year to year"? For the second question I could buy the conclusion for game to game but not year to year.

Even just anecdotally, virtually all the players that had really long careers were high workhorse guys.

Martin, Emmitt, Peterson, Gore, Bus.

Meanwhile there were lots of guys with lower workloads or late starts like Charles and Westbrook that people pontificated would be able to stretch out their careers longer because of it, but they were toast before they hit 30.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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8 hours ago, FGITLOTR said:

Exactly! He looks slow, unable to break the first tackle and has put the ball on the carpet at an alarming rate. Despite no serious injuries, he has major tread on those tires and the heavy workload has taken its toll. Say what you want, but Pollard looks substantially quicker and more elusive. I know they have big invested in Zeke, but if they want to put a better product on the field, this would become a timeshare and Pollard would at least be featured in a passing down role. If I remember correctly, Bloom had Pollard on his buy low list a few weeks back. In my opinion, now is the time to buy low on Pollard in dynasty leagues.  

Did you find that he slowed down and can’t break a tackle at the same time Daks leg got snapped?

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1 hour ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

Did you find that he slowed down and can’t break a tackle at the same time Daks leg got snapped?

No, but I appreciate the question. Let me help you out here: Zeke’s decline actually started last year, not this season. Despite great grades from both Pro Football Focus/Football Outsiders last season, indicating the Cowboys' line can still be considered very good, Zeke posted a career-low in yards per game. His longest run the past 3 years is 38 yards. It’s abundantly clear that he lacks the burst we were accustomed to seeing at Ohio Stare and in his rookie year. At this point in his career, Zeke is a good RB, but certainly not elite. 

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Ezekiel Elliott rushed 10 times for 32 yards in the Cowboys' Week 12 loss to Washington.

Elliott not only got nothing going on the ground, but he also lost another fumble while running between the tackles. It's been a constant issue for the $90 million back in 2020, and there's simply no excuse for why it's happening. Elliott is also losing passing-down snaps to Tony Pollard, who has been more explosive than Zeke although it's on less work. With the Cowboys losing both starting tackles on Thanksgiving, it's likely that Zeke struggles to post RB1-level production in fantasy circles. He'll be a boom-bust RB2 against the Ravens in Week 13. 

Nov 26, 2020, 8:07 PM ET

 

 

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https://twitter.com/marcus_mosher/status/1332104379902681088?s=21
 

Marcus is spot on! I was also glad to hear Aikman acknowledge that Zeke doesn’t have that burst anymore (pre hammy issue). Zeke with yet another fumble and putrid performance (6 fumbles in his last 10 games 😳). They still have 90 mil guaranteed left on his hideous deal, which will be a noose around the their neck the next two years. 

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53 minutes ago, FGITLOTR said:

Yeah, people are definitely starting to shy away from him. Hopefully he turns it around next year, but I doubt it. 

I don’t know.  I would def say his value is at an all-time low.

A healthy O Line and Dak back under center might do wonders for him. 

I would also guess his motivation right now couldn’t be lower.  I mean what is playing for right now? 

Edited by Max55
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  • 2 weeks later...
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Ezekiel Elliott rushed 18 times for 77 yards and caught 4-of-6 targets for 18 yards in the Cowboys' Week 13 loss to the Ravens.

Elliott showed a little more burst than normal early in the contest but was routinely stuffed in short-yardage situations. At one point, Dallas attempted three-straight carries at the goal-line. All of them went nowhere. Elliott hasn't been anywhere near good enough as a pure runner to re-enter the RB1 conversation alongside his below-average offensive line and quarterback. His big workload is more than enough to secure a volume-based RB2 ranking down the stretch, however. Elliott could have his best game post-Dak Prescott in Week 14 against the Bengals. 

Dec 8, 2020, 11:30 PM ET

 

 

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Ezekiel Elliott was listed as limited for Wednesday with a calf issue.

We believe this is the first time that "calf" has popped up next to Elliott's name this season. To clarify, the Cowboys did not practice on Wednesday, but this report from the team is instead just an estimation. Elliott is fully expected to play in Week 14 in a smash spot against the Bengals.

Dec 9, 2020, 8:45 PM ET

 

 

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On 11/27/2020 at 1:00 PM, scothawk said:

Tried to move him in dynasty. Feels like I'm stuck with his contract too.

What were some of the parameters discussed? I like Zeke as a buy low. He’s still a first round pick in redraft next year.

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Rotoworld:

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Ezekiel Elliott (calf) is questionable for Week 14 against the Bengals.

Elliott was previously questionable following a limited session ahead of Dallas' matchup against Pittsburgh in Week 9 and proceeded to handle 20-of-30 backfield touches including a team-high 18 carries in that one. In other words, Elliott is fully expected to play and handle the lion's share of touches ahead of Tony Pollard. Zeke, as always, is a touch-based RB2 that could be avoided if it weren't 2020.

SOURCE: Jon Machota on Twitter

Dec 11, 2020, 3:29 PM ET

 

 

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On 12/10/2020 at 6:37 PM, ILUVBEER99 said:

Things fell apart when Dak went down.  Elliott will be fine when Dak returns.

in 5 games with Dak he had 537 total yards and 6 TD’s.

He’s still only 25.  

I think its also worth pointing out, 5 of his last 6 games have been against stout run defenses. Bal Pit Phi and Was x 2. Pretty rough stretch. The other game, Min, he had a good game.

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On 12/10/2020 at 5:37 PM, ILUVBEER99 said:

Things fell apart when Dak went down.  Elliott will be fine when Dak returns.

in 5 games with Dak he had 537 total yards and 6 TD’s.

He’s still only 25.  

Dak along with Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, La'el Collins, and a slew of other O lineman.

I think we're up to 17 different starting line combos this year.

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10 minutes ago, turkishkamel said:

Dak along with Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, La'el Collins, and a slew of other O lineman.

I think we're up to 17 different starting line combos this year.

And when you consider Dallas has only played 12 games, that’s saying something.

Edited by Bayhawks
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8 hours ago, Teezee said:

I would pick up Pollard if you can. Zeke has a calf and a hammy. He may not make it out of the CIN game, I don't think they push it. I wouldn't be surprised if they shut him down next week.

This is my situation... trying to decided which one to start. Leaning Pollard right now 4.5 before kickoff. 

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Ezekiel Elliott (calf) is active for Week 14 against the Bengals.

Zeke was never in real danger and gets a rare RB1 week in a soft matchup against a Bengals defense allowing a crisp 5.0 YPC to running backs. Inactive for Dallas are QB Ben DiNucci, WR Malik Turner, CB Anthony Brown, S Donovan Wilson, DE Bradlee Anae, OLB Luke Gifford, and DT Eli Ankou.

Dec 13, 2020, 11:46 AM ET

 

 

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  • Joe Bryant changed the title to RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

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