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Jeremy Maclin = Roddy White? (1 Viewer)

FreeBaGeL

FreeBaGeL

Footballguy
I'm not talking about body type or receiving style here, but rather their potential paths to becoming top 10 FF WRs.

Entering his age 26 season in 2007 Roddy White had somewhat underperformed his relatively high NFL draft spot. System and opportunity finally aligned and in that age 26 season Roddy White put up 1200 yards and 6 TDs. The fantasy community reacted with a big shrug. He entered the next season as WR25 in ADP and had little trade value. After putting up similar numbers again the next year, even though people pretty much expected as much, he vaulted to WR8 in ADP and spent the rest of his prime well established in the top 10.

Entering his age 26 season in 2014 Jeremy Maclin had somewhat underperformed his relatively high NFL draft spot. System and opportunity finally aligned and in that age 26 season Maclin put up 1300 yards and 10 TDs despite his staring QB being injured half way through the season. The fantasy community has again reacted with a big shrug. He's WR24 in the FBG consensus dynasty rankings, and his value seems to be somewhere around an early 2nd round rookie pick if the offseason trade threads are any indication.

Now granted, there are some differences. Maclin entered the league younger and hence took a few extra years to reach his breakout season (which no one seems to be actually treating as a breakout season). He also had some injury issues that White never did. That said, if he stays healthy and in Philly I think most people would expect him to put up similar numbers to last year. At that point, as a 27 year old guy with back to back big season, his FF value will sky rocket, even though all he did was exactly what people mostly expect him to do.

I realize that staying healthy and staying in Philly both are not sure things. But how many other guys can you buy at borderline WR3 prices who need to do nothing more than maintain the status quo to be a strong WR1?

He seems like a great candidate for a guy who's value could very easily skyrocket from this season to the next even without him doing anything unexpected.

 
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Roddy was a target hound and the only game in town until Julio was drafted. Maclin I would think is about at his peak target wise in this offense as I expect Matthews to ascend in the offense and they like to spread the ball around much more than the Falcons did. Maclin has a high floor and a ceiling not much higher...kind of reminds of Rod Smith back in the day...82-1150-8...solid but unspectacular...I can understand why people take them/him but it's not my drafting philosophy. I don't really think he has the ability to jump to the next tier, especially with guys like Evans, Watkins, ODB, Benjamin coming onto the scene. He's just not that sexy and you largely get what you'll pay for.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Eagles added another WR to the mix this year.

 
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I don't see Maclin drawing the targets that Roddy did...or being durable enough (although that's arguable and we really can't know).

I expect to see an increase in involvement for Matthews, Ertz, and then you have to factor in anyone they draft this year and in following years. Kelly isn't going to stop adding toys for his offense.

I think this year was Maclin's ceiling even if they pay him to stay.

 
Banger said:
Roddy was a target hound and the only game in town until Julio was drafted. Maclin I would think is about at his peak target wise in this offense as I expect Matthews to ascend in the offense and they like to spread the ball around much more than the Falcons did. Maclin has a high floor and a ceiling not much higher...kind of reminds of Rod Smith back in the day...82-1150-8...solid but unspectacular...I can understand why people take them/him but it's not my drafting philosophy. I don't really think he has the ability to jump to the next tier, especially with guys like Evans, Watkins, ODB, Benjamin coming onto the scene. He's just not that sexy and you largely get what you'll pay for.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Eagles added another WR to the mix this year.
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That's the thing though, Maclin doesn't have to do anything more than he did this year to jump tiers. That's kind of the point I'm making. Roddy didn't vastly improve year over year for his big value jump, he just did it two years in a row. Roddy White's career best year was 1382/10, essentially what Maclin put up this year.

I think most people would expect a healthy Maclin to put up similar numbers if he stays health and in Philly next year. Even if they dip slightly, that will jump him up wildly in WR rankings even though all he did was exactly what people expected of him. It's a perception thing.

As far as "getting what you pay for and nothing more" he's being drafted at WR15-WR24. 1300/10 far exceeds that draft range. FBG has him ranked behind Torrey Smith, for goodness sake.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
I don't see Maclin drawing the targets that Roddy did...or being durable enough (although that's arguable and we really can't know).

I expect to see an increase in involvement for Matthews, Ertz, and then you have to factor in anyone they draft this year and in following years. Kelly isn't going to stop adding toys for his offense.

I think this year was Maclin's ceiling even if they pay him to stay.
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Maclin had 143 targets this year. Roddy exceeded that only three times in his career and had a career high of 179. Even with those extra targets, he failed to exceed Maclin's 2014 numbers in all but one season, where he matched them. Let's also remember that Maclin's target pace was higher prior to Foles getting hurt.

I'm also not sure why we're so focused on ceiling in a discussion comparing him to Roddy White. Even if Maclin hit his ceiling this year (what if he plays a whole year with Foles?), that already matches Roddy White's ceiling as it was White's career high. Yet that didn't stop White from being a perennial top 10, sometimes even top 5 ranked dynasty WR.

A guy doesn't have to be able to put up 1800/15 to be an early tier 2 WR. A few seasons in a row of 1200-1300 yards and 8-10 TDs will get you there, as they did for Roddy White and as I think the chances are pretty good of happening for Maclin.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Banger said:
Roddy was a target hound and the only game in town until Julio was drafted. Maclin I would think is about at his peak target wise in this offense as I expect Matthews to ascend in the offense and they like to spread the ball around much more than the Falcons did. Maclin has a high floor and a ceiling not much higher...kind of reminds of Rod Smith back in the day...82-1150-8...solid but unspectacular...I can understand why people take them/him but it's not my drafting philosophy. I don't really think he has the ability to jump to the next tier, especially with guys like Evans, Watkins, ODB, Benjamin coming onto the scene. He's just not that sexy and you largely get what you'll pay for.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Eagles added another WR to the mix this year.
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That's the thing though, Maclin doesn't have to do anything more than he did this year to jump tiers. That's kind of the point I'm making. Roddy didn't vastly improve year over year for his big value jump, he just did it two years in a row. Roddy White's career best year was 1382/10, essentially what Maclin put up this year.

I think most people would expect a healthy Maclin to put up similar numbers if he stays health and in Philly next year. Even if they dip slightly, that will jump him up wildly in WR rankings even though all he did was exactly what people expected of him. It's a perception thing.

As far as "getting what you pay for and nothing more" he's being drafted at WR15-WR24. 1300/10 far exceeds that draft range. FBG has him ranked behind Torrey Smith, for goodness sake.
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it's a fair point but I don't know that he does it again. They cut DJax and he was largely the only gun in town and as the year went on Matthews came alive and we'll have to see what they do offseason but I wouldn't expect Kelly to sit silent. I agree that he has good value and wouldn't fault someone for taking him at WR20ish because you're likely drafting him at his floor. I tend to go for the homerun players as opposed to the solid single hitters. Instead of taking Maclin I tend to look for the next Maclin that I can get at WR30+

 
I'm on board. Just acquired him today actually. In the first 7 games, he had 45 catches for 632 Yards and 6 touchdowns. That's a pace for 1400 yards and 14 tds with foles.

Then foles got hurt. The final 9 games he had 686 yards and 4 touchdowns. That's a pace for 1200 yards and 7 tds with Sanchez.

there are a lot of moving parts in his valuation right now, between his own contract (he wants to sign, they want to sign him, and they have the cap space), the possibility they move foles (I don't think anyone really has the cojones to trade a pro bowl qb), and injury risk. I love that kind of risk profile.

 
You say "system and opportunity aligned in 2007" but really that was a lost year for ATL post-Vick. Petrino was still coach. The team started Joey Harrington week 1. Maybe their best QB that year was Chris Redman. The reboot button got hit the next year, and they brought in a defensive-minded coach, a new QB, and a new RB. If the reboot had happened 2007 there might have been less uncertainty about White.

Ultimately I don't see Maclin's value being de facto, no question dynasty WR1, unless Philly solves its QB situation and the guy shows a strong preference to Maclin. That solution happened pretty fast for White in 2008. Matt Ryan came out of the gates with some long TDs and some wins, and the future looked much brighter with White being the main beneficiary. Right now, we don't know what the Eagles will look like. 2015 is sketchy and 2016 is a total mystery. We can reasonably project they'll put up yards and points given it's Chip but there's uncertainty about everything else.


Part of Bagel's argument is that his dynasty ADP will go up if he repeats, but i don't necessarily think that is true. This isn't 2008. There are more WR producing, more WR hyped. He could repeat 2014 and still be behind Jordan Matthews in ADP if Matthews' cumulative stats get closer. He could repeat and still be behind several other young WR who do - not quite as well - but close enough we can look past a few VBD. He could still be a value play next year where you can trade a "promising" WR straight up or similar pick. Take that Jordy Nelson who is pretty much a guaranteed WR1 and likely top 5 or better is barely a WR1 in dynasty - clocking in at WR12. Maclin's ADP isn't directly proportional to his upside, but it follows the logic of the crowd.

While Maclin is a good talking point, there's a couple other Maclins right now we could guess about - Tate and Sanders. Sanders could have another WR1 season and have his value go down. Tate could repeat just like Maclin and not see a significant rise in value. It takes a crazy season like Brown's to really break through the noise for post-hype players.

 
Banger said:
Roddy was a target hound and the only game in town until Julio was drafted. Maclin I would think is about at his peak target wise in this offense as I expect Matthews to ascend in the offense and they like to spread the ball around much more than the Falcons did. Maclin has a high floor and a ceiling not much higher...kind of reminds of Rod Smith back in the day...82-1150-8...solid but unspectacular...I can understand why people take them/him but it's not my drafting philosophy. I don't really think he has the ability to jump to the next tier, especially with guys like Evans, Watkins, ODB, Benjamin coming onto the scene. He's just not that sexy and you largely get what you'll pay for.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Eagles added another WR to the mix this year.
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You say the bolded like that's a bad thing. Roddy was often available as the 10-15th WR off the board precisely because he wasn't the hot pick any year yet pair him with a couple high upside WRs and you have a nice squad. There's something to be said for getting what you pay for in rounds 2-4.
 
If Foles is the QB next year, i'm buying. If not, i'll have to see who it is and re-assess.

 
in week 8, Maclin was the number five ppg receiver. In week 9, when foles got hurt, he was number three. He finished number nine. How much more upside do you want?

 
Jeremy Maclin

2010 16 games 115 targets 70 receptions 964 yards 13.8 ypc 10TD
2011 13 games 96 targets (7.39/game = 118) 63 receptions 859 yards 13.6 ypc 5 TD
2012 15 games 122 targets (8.13/game = 130) 69 receptions 857 yards 12.4 ypc 7TD
2014 16 games 143 targets 85 receptions 15.5 ypc 10 TD

The seasons Maclin played in prior to last year were in Andry Reid's WCO not Chip Kelly's offense.

So I am going to give a 50% weighting to the 3 prior years numbers and 2014.

2010-2012 Maclin averaged 121 targets/season after accounting for the missed games. At a 60% career catch rate that works out to 73 receptions/season. At 13.26 yards/reception that is 968 yards/season and 7.3TD

Averaging those totals with the 2014 numbers is 132 targets 79.2 recpetion (at 60% catch rate in 2014 it was 59.4%) at 14.38 ypc is 1139 yards 8.65 TD

These are good numbers butIn 2014 there were 24 players with 79 or more receptions. In 2013 there were 22.

There are several other WR at lower ADP than Maclin who I think can match or beat these numbers. For example Golden Tate, Percy Harvin, Julian Edelman or Jarvis Landry to name a few.

In looking at the two years of the Eagles with Chip Kelly, Maclin received the highest number of targets for any one player at 143. The high in 2013 was 124 targets to DeSean Jackson.

The Eagles ran 1054 offensive plays in 2013 but increased that number to 1127 plays in 2014. The highest number of plays for any offense in 2014. This being CK I do expect that higher volume to continue.

If Maclin is brought back I am not sure if he will remain the player with the highest targets on the team. I think the highest number of targets (124-143 at this point) will shift to Jordan Matthews who had 103 targets as a rookie. Josh Huff may earn a greater role as well. There may also be a new player from FA or the draft who might be in the mix.

If that happens Maclin would still be valuable. But perhaps not the most valuable player on his team, or in a way that distinguishes him significantly from other good WR2s

One thing I do think will remain a good thing for all Eagles receivers is the high yards/reception which seems to have carried over from 2013.
 
Biabreakable said:
Jeremy Maclin

2010 16 games 115 targets 70 receptions 964 yards 13.8 ypc 10TD
2011 13 games 96 targets (7.39/game = 118) 63 receptions 859 yards 13.6 ypc 5 TD
2012 15 games 122 targets (8.13/game = 130) 69 receptions 857 yards 12.4 ypc 7TD
2014 16 games 143 targets 85 receptions 15.5 ypc 10 TD

The seasons Maclin played in prior to last year were in Andry Reid's WCO not Chip Kelly's offense.

So I am going to give a 50% weighting to the 3 prior years numbers and 2014.

2010-2012 Maclin averaged 121 targets/season after accounting for the missed games. At a 60% career catch rate that works out to 73 receptions/season. At 13.26 yards/reception that is 968 yards/season and 7.3TD

Averaging those totals with the 2014 numbers is 132 targets 79.2 recpetion (at 60% catch rate in 2014 it was 59.4%) at 14.38 ypc is 1139 yards 8.65 TD

These are good numbers butIn 2014 there were 24 players with 79 or more receptions. In 2013 there were 22.

There are several other WR at lower ADP than Maclin who I think can match or beat these numbers. For example Golden Tate, Percy Harvin, Julian Edelman or Jarvis Landry to name a few.

In looking at the two years of the Eagles with Chip Kelly, Maclin received the highest number of targets for any one player at 143. The high in 2013 was 124 targets to DeSean Jackson.

The Eagles ran 1054 offensive plays in 2013 but increased that number to 1127 plays in 2014. The highest number of plays for any offense in 2014. This being CK I do expect that higher volume to continue.

If Maclin is brought back I am not sure if he will remain the player with the highest targets on the team. I think the highest number of targets (124-143 at this point) will shift to Jordan Matthews who had 103 targets as a rookie. Josh Huff may earn a greater role as well. There may also be a new player from FA or the draft who might be in the mix.

If that happens Maclin would still be valuable. But perhaps not the most valuable player on his team, or in a way that distinguishes him significantly from other good WR2s

One thing I do think will remain a good thing for all Eagles receivers is the high yards/reception which seems to have carried over from 2013.
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You're not factoring in that DJax is not on the team anymore. Assuming he's back with the Eagles, he's their #1 wr.

 
I can't understand why anyone would think that Jordan Matthews would start taking more targets than Maclin??? I'm more worried about Maclin's health than Matthews stealing the show. Matthews can only help Maclin. If Maclin is back in Philly and he stays healthy, I think he's a lock for top 10 WR...... regardless of the QB.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
A guy doesn't have to be able to put up 1800/15 to be an early tier 2 WR. A few seasons in a row of 1200-1300 yards and 8-10 TDs will get you there, as they did for Roddy White and as I think the chances are pretty good of happening for Maclin.
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Perhaps I'm wrong about this, but the level of competition (the sheer number of WRs putting up big numbers) will make it much more difficult for Maclin to jump up big in the rankings if he puts up a 1,250-9 TD type season in 2015 than it was for White just 5-10 years ago.

I have Maclin ranked at 17 now - and I'm just not sure I see all that many options that he can jump over, even with another good season.

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
FreeBaGeL said:
A guy doesn't have to be able to put up 1800/15 to be an early tier 2 WR. A few seasons in a row of 1200-1300 yards and 8-10 TDs will get you there, as they did for Roddy White and as I think the chances are pretty good of happening for Maclin.
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Perhaps I'm wrong about this, but the level of competition (the sheer number of WRs putting up big numbers) will make it much more difficult for Maclin to jump up big in the rankings if he puts up a 1,250-9 TD type season in 2015 than it was for White just 5-10 years ago.

I have Maclin ranked at 17 now - and I'm just not sure I see all that many options that he can jump over, even with another good season.
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Makes sense. A young WR just puts up easy top 10 season you rank him 17 then further suggest he's post another top 10 season you don't see many options he can jump? Sound logic, makes total sense. Hey maybe he goes ahead of the guys he's outscoring.

 
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Billy Ball Thorton said:
Dr. Octopus said:
FreeBaGeL said:
A guy doesn't have to be able to put up 1800/15 to be an early tier 2 WR. A few seasons in a row of 1200-1300 yards and 8-10 TDs will get you there, as they did for Roddy White and as I think the chances are pretty good of happening for Maclin.
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Perhaps I'm wrong about this, but the level of competition (the sheer number of WRs putting up big numbers) will make it much more difficult for Maclin to jump up big in the rankings if he puts up a 1,250-9 TD type season in 2015 than it was for White just 5-10 years ago.

I have Maclin ranked at 17 now - and I'm just not sure I see all that many options that he can jump over, even with another good season.
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Makes sense. A young WR just puts up easy top 10 season you rank him 17 then further suggest he's post another top 10 season you don't see many options he can jump? Sound logic, makes total sense.Hey maybe he goes ahead of the guys he's outscoring.
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Thanks Bill Ball !!!!

 
thriftyrocker said:
Part of Bagel's argument is that his dynasty ADP will go up if he repeats, but i don't necessarily think that is true. This isn't 2008. There are more WR producing, more WR hyped. He could repeat 2014 and still be behind Jordan Matthews in ADP if Matthews' cumulative stats get closer. He could repeat and still be behind several other young WR who do - not quite as well - but close enough we can look past a few VBD. He could still be a value play next year where you can trade a "promising" WR straight up or similar pick. Take that Jordy Nelson who is pretty much a guaranteed WR1 and likely top 5 or better is barely a WR1 in dynasty - clocking in at WR12. Maclin's ADP isn't directly proportional to his upside, but it follows the logic of the crowd.

While Maclin is a good talking point, there's a couple other Maclins right now we could guess about - Tate and Sanders. Sanders could have another WR1 season and have his value go down. Tate could repeat just like Maclin and not see a significant rise in value. It takes a crazy season like Brown's to really break through the noise for post-hype players.
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This is a fair point. I don't really have any evidence of this other than anecdotal evidence, but it does seem to be the way that FF groupthink works and has worked in the past, as best I can tell.

You're right that things are different now than in 2008, but I don't think they're so overwhelmingly different that they'll completely change this. Maclin's 1318 yards this year ranked 9th in the league, and would have ranked 6th in 2008. A difference sure, but not an overwhelming one. And remember, White usually finished below Maclin's 1318 yards so it's not like he was consistently scoring top 5 either to get his consistent top 10 and sometimes top 5 ranking.

White finished 8th, 4th, 13th, 2nd, 8th, 9th during his stretch.

As to Sanders/Tate, I think they this past season much more transparently benefited from circumstance that is very unlikely to repeat over the next 5 or so years. Much more so than Maclin. Sanders of course seems almost completely dependent on Peyton (he couldn't even put it together with a different HOF QB) who likely has 1 year left. Tate meanwhile did almost all his damage in the games where Calvin was out injured or playing as a decoy. Tate had 5 100+ yard receiving games and 3 touchdowns in the 5 games where Calvin was hurt, and zero 100+ yard receiving game and 1 touchdown in the 11 games when Calvin was healthy.

 
wide receivers I would definitely take over Maclin:

Dez Bryant

Julio Jones

aj green

Antonio brown

demaryius Thomas

Jordy Nelson

Calvin Johnson

O'Dell Beckham

ty hilton

Guys I think a lot of other people would take over Maclin, but I wouldn't:

Sammy Watkins

Mike Evans

Alshon Jeffrey

guys you could make a case for either way:

Randall cobb (until we find out if green bay keeps him)

DeAndre Hopkins

Kelvin Benjamin

Guys near him that I have below him:

Keenan allen

Brandon cooks

Jordan Matthews

Brandon Marshall

Emmanuelle sanders

Guys i think are well below him:

golden tate

Torrey smith

Michael Floyd

Mike Wallace

DeSean Jackson

Percy Harvin

Victor Cruz

 
bostonfred said:
wide receivers I would definitely take over Maclin:

Dez Bryant

Julio Jones

aj green

Antonio brown

demaryius Thomas

Jordy Nelson

Calvin Johnson

O'Dell Beckham

ty hilton

Guys I think a lot of other people would take over Maclin, but I wouldn't:

Sammy Watkins

Mike Evans

Alshon Jeffrey

guys you could make a case for either way:

Randall cobb (until we find out if green bay keeps him)

DeAndre Hopkins

Kelvin Benjamin

Guys near him that I have below him:

Keenan allen

Brandon cooks

Jordan Matthews

Brandon Marshall

Emmanuelle sanders

Guys i think are well below him:

golden tate

Torrey smith

Michael Floyd

Mike Wallace

DeSean Jackson

Percy Harvin

Victor Cruz
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I think this is a good list.

I bolded the guys I currently rank ahead of Maclin. The only ones that you could likely convince me of moving down below would be Watkins (based on situation) and Marshall (based on age).

The rest I see as better talents with more upside. That's basically what I mean by saying it's hard to see Maclin shooting up the rankings very quickly - there's a lot of productive talent ahead of him already and I don't see many of those guys falling off anytime soon.

 
this time next year, if Maclin resigns and foles is still the qb, I think Maclin could easily move ahead of everybody on that lay starting with Calvin. I don't see him moving ahead of Dez, aj green, etc. I mean, maybe Julio gets hurt again or something, but it would have to be something dramatic.

the rest if these guys, though... i mean, he out performed most of these guys already in 2014 - and that was after losing his qb at the halfway point in the season. He was top five at that point (the game Sanchez took over brought him to top three). Another season choose to that early 2014 pace and he easily ascends.

Meanwhile, Calvin is getting older and getting hurt more and more. Obj was the beneficiary of a giants team looking to sell tickets, not win games. i have a feeling he cools off some when they are back to fully stocked and trying to beat their opponents. Hilton had a monster year, but he might just have been lucks best target. as the other guys develop, his piece of the pie may shrink. Cobb needs to resign and stay healthy. Kelvin needs to become a more complete receiver. He had a monster rookie season, but a lot of fluky late tds. he could regress a little. Marshall had a horrid year, and now trestmsn is gone, cutler is on a short leash and Marshall is getting older and had some injuries. And branding cooks showed flashes, but he's got a long way to go before he's in the elite tier Instead of the elite prospect tier.

So I can see Maclin easily going in the top ten next season - or closer to 25 or 30 if things don't go great for him. He's a high risk, high reward dynasty buy imo, and the current uncertainty is giving you a rare chance to buy him cheap.

 
Randall Cobb is an interesting name to see, because his career path and Maclin's are virtually identical in every category except for the (vast) difference in their current ranking.

Both are currently UFA's who seem quite dependent on the team they currently play for. Both have been held back by injuries in the past, but finally put it all together this year when able to stay completely healthy. Both just saw their teams spend a 2nd round pick on another WR who looked good this year.

The only real differences are that Maclin was drafted earlier while Cobb is 2 years younger. Yet in FBG consensus dynasty rankings Cobb is currently WR11 while Maclin is WR24. I really doubt that the two year age gap is what's making the difference here given that both of these guys have 6-8 years left to play.

As far as guys ahead of Maclin that could drop down, a lot can change in a year. Look at last year's list of guys ranked in the WR7-WR23 range and, while at the time most would likely have also said "I can't see who's going to fall out of there" more than half of those guys did. Guys like Cruz, VJax, Harvin were just as unexpected as many of this year's guys would be.

When we look at the guys in that range this year there are a LOT of guys that have to fairly significantly improve to maintain that ranking. History tells us that many won't, and even among the rookies that looked really good, at least one will likely regress.

 
bostonfred said:
this time next year, if Maclin resigns and foles is still the qb, I think Maclin could easily move ahead of everybody on that lay starting with Calvin. I don't see him moving ahead of Dez, aj green, etc. I mean, maybe Julio gets hurt again or something, but it would have to be something dramatic.

the rest if these guys, though... i mean, he out performed most of these guys already in 2014 - and that was after losing his qb at the halfway point in the season. He was top five at that point (the game Sanchez took over brought him to top three). Another season choose to that early 2014 pace and he easily ascends.

Meanwhile, Calvin is getting older and getting hurt more and more. Obj was the beneficiary of a giants team looking to sell tickets, not win games. i have a feeling he cools off some when they are back to fully stocked and trying to beat their opponents. Hilton had a monster year, but he might just have been lucks best target. as the other guys develop, his piece of the pie may shrink. Cobb needs to resign and stay healthy. Kelvin needs to become a more complete receiver. He had a monster rookie season, but a lot of fluky late tds. he could regress a little. Marshall had a horrid year, and now trestmsn is gone, cutler is on a short leash and Marshall is getting older and had some injuries. And branding cooks showed flashes, but he's got a long way to go before he's in the elite tier Instead of the elite prospect tier.

So I can see Maclin easily going in the top ten next season - or closer to 25 or 30 if things don't go great for him. He's a high risk, high reward dynasty buy imo, and the current uncertainty is giving you a rare chance to buy him cheap.
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huh? they won 3 of their last 4 games (and lost a close one to the Eagles in the finale) when they were force feeding OBJ. Prior to that they lost 16-10 to the Niners, 31-28 to the cowboys and 25-24 to the Jags. Essentially they were in every game once they turned over the offense to him. OBJ>>>Maclin.

and the negative with respect to Hilton could just as easily apply to Maclin, no?

 
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Banger said:
bostonfred said:
this time next year, if Maclin resigns and foles is still the qb, I think Maclin could easily move ahead of everybody on that lay starting with Calvin. I don't see him moving ahead of Dez, aj green, etc. I mean, maybe Julio gets hurt again or something, but it would have to be something dramatic.

the rest if these guys, though... i mean, he out performed most of these guys already in 2014 - and that was after losing his qb at the halfway point in the season. He was top five at that point (the game Sanchez took over brought him to top three). Another season choose to that early 2014 pace and he easily ascends.

Meanwhile, Calvin is getting older and getting hurt more and more. Obj was the beneficiary of a giants team looking to sell tickets, not win games. i have a feeling he cools off some when they are back to fully stocked and trying to beat their opponents. Hilton had a monster year, but he might just have been lucks best target. as the other guys develop, his piece of the pie may shrink. Cobb needs to resign and stay healthy. Kelvin needs to become a more complete receiver. He had a monster rookie season, but a lot of fluky late tds. he could regress a little. Marshall had a horrid year, and now trestmsn is gone, cutler is on a short leash and Marshall is getting older and had some injuries. And branding cooks showed flashes, but he's got a long way to go before he's in the elite tier Instead of the elite prospect tier.

So I can see Maclin easily going in the top ten next season - or closer to 25 or 30 if things don't go great for him. He's a high risk, high reward dynasty buy imo, and the current uncertainty is giving you a rare chance to buy him cheap.
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huh? they won 3 of their last 4 games (and lost a close one to the Eagles in the finale) when they were force feeding OBJ. Prior to that they lost 16-10 to the Niners, 31-28 to the cowboys and 25-24 to the Jags. Essentially they were in every game once they turned over the offense to him. OBJ>>>Maclin.
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Not to mention the Giants have had no real issues selling tickets for a long time.

 
Banger said:
the negative with respect to Hilton could just as easily apply to Maclin, no?
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sure, maclin could see fewer targets, too. I actually like hilton, but I feel like he and fleener benefitted a lot from being the only guys there who had played with luck before. Allen did great in the end zone but that's probably where they spent the most time developing their timing. Moncrief wasn't really running great timing routes, he just didn't have that rapport yet. I think luck is going to get his, and it will be a meritocracy to see who gets how much next year. I can see allen overtaking fleener, or not. I can see moncrief taking a much bigger role.. or not. hilton production depends heavily on those answers. the same is true in Philly, but we've already seen it shake out a little. Maclin clearly was the top target for foles. Matthews didn't really emerge until Sanchez came in, which makes sense because they probably got a lot of early reps together. Riley cooper dropped way off. Going forward, I would expect a little more matthews/ertz, and less sproles/cooper - but none of that necessarily has to come at maclin's expense.

So its similar, but different.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Randall Cobb is an interesting name to see, because his career path and Maclin's are virtually identical in every category except for the (vast) difference in their current ranking.

Both are currently UFA's who seem quite dependent on the team they currently play for. Both have been held back by injuries in the past, but finally put it all together this year when able to stay completely healthy. Both just saw their teams spend a 2nd round pick on another WR who looked good this year.

The only real differences are that Maclin was drafted earlier while Cobb is 2 years younger. Yet in FBG consensus dynasty rankings Cobb is currently WR11 while Maclin is WR24. I really doubt that the two year age gap is what's making the difference here given that both of these guys have 6-8 years left to play.

As far as guys ahead of Maclin that could drop down, a lot can change in a year. Look at last year's list of guys ranked in the WR7-WR23 range and, while at the time most would likely have also said "I can't see who's going to fall out of there" more than half of those guys did. Guys like Cruz, VJax, Harvin were just as unexpected as many of this year's guys would be.

When we look at the guys in that range this year there are a LOT of guys that have to fairly significantly improve to maintain that ranking. History tells us that many won't, and even among the rookies that looked really good, at least one will likely regress.
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I think the other big difference for cobb is that if he stays in green bay, you can write him down as a stud wr. Maclin still had to deal with a rumored qb change. Not saying that justifies the perception gap, but I don't want to understate the risk, either.
 
Tool said:
Biabreakable said:
Jeremy Maclin

2010 16 games 115 targets 70 receptions 964 yards 13.8 ypc 10TD
2011 13 games 96 targets (7.39/game = 118) 63 receptions 859 yards 13.6 ypc 5 TD
2012 15 games 122 targets (8.13/game = 130) 69 receptions 857 yards 12.4 ypc 7TD
2014 16 games 143 targets 85 receptions 15.5 ypc 10 TD

The seasons Maclin played in prior to last year were in Andry Reid's WCO not Chip Kelly's offense.

So I am going to give a 50% weighting to the 3 prior years numbers and 2014.

2010-2012 Maclin averaged 121 targets/season after accounting for the missed games. At a 60% career catch rate that works out to 73 receptions/season. At 13.26 yards/reception that is 968 yards/season and 7.3TD

Averaging those totals with the 2014 numbers is 132 targets 79.2 recpetion (at 60% catch rate in 2014 it was 59.4%) at 14.38 ypc is 1139 yards 8.65 TD

These are good numbers butIn 2014 there were 24 players with 79 or more receptions. In 2013 there were 22.

There are several other WR at lower ADP than Maclin who I think can match or beat these numbers. For example Golden Tate, Percy Harvin, Julian Edelman or Jarvis Landry to name a few.

In looking at the two years of the Eagles with Chip Kelly, Maclin received the highest number of targets for any one player at 143. The high in 2013 was 124 targets to DeSean Jackson.

The Eagles ran 1054 offensive plays in 2013 but increased that number to 1127 plays in 2014. The highest number of plays for any offense in 2014. This being CK I do expect that higher volume to continue.

If Maclin is brought back I am not sure if he will remain the player with the highest targets on the team. I think the highest number of targets (124-143 at this point) will shift to Jordan Matthews who had 103 targets as a rookie. Josh Huff may earn a greater role as well. There may also be a new player from FA or the draft who might be in the mix.

If that happens Maclin would still be valuable. But perhaps not the most valuable player on his team, or in a way that distinguishes him significantly from other good WR2s

One thing I do think will remain a good thing for all Eagles receivers is the high yards/reception which seems to have carried over from 2013.
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You're not factoring in that DJax is not on the team anymore. Assuming he's back with the Eagles, he's their #1 wr.
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I do realize Jackson played for the Redskins in 2014. The only reason I brought him up is to show the number of targets to the #1 WR in Chip Kellys offense in 2013 which was 124.

The 2014 version of the offense added 73 total offensive plays from 2013 and the targets for the #1WR in that offense went up to 143.

This is why I would expect the target range for the #1WR to be in the 124 to 143 range. Which is a consideration that I match to the career stats for Maclin.

But as I already stated, I am not sure Maclin will re-sign or that he will remain the #1WR even if he does, because I think it is possible that Jordan Matthews becomes the #1WR in 2015.

A 3rd WR (thus far this has been Riley Cooper) also gets significant targets in CK's offense so far.

 
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