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RB Melvin Gordon, BAL (3 Viewers)

So this RC Fischer fellow just posted this article. Headlined by the statement, "Have you overlooked that Melvin Gordon is possibly the most overrated starting running back in the NFL?" Anyone else have an opinion on this? I had a hard time taking the guy seriously after I read that but tried to read through the rest. Which really just came off as a hate piece.

https://www.fantasypros.com/2017/07/very-deep-sleeper-andre-williams-fantasy-football/
I don't buy that. Williams struggled to beat out a garbage core of rbs on the giants. Dude can't pass block either. Gordon has been improving and the chargers are healthy. I'm all in on Gordon and won't hesitate to snatch him in the first after big 3 and McCoy are gone.

 
So this RC Fischer fellow just posted this article. Headlined by the statement, "Have you overlooked that Melvin Gordon is possibly the most overrated starting running back in the NFL?" Anyone else have an opinion on this? I had a hard time taking the guy seriously after I read that but tried to read through the rest. Which really just came off as a hate piece.

https://www.fantasypros.com/2017/07/very-deep-sleeper-andre-williams-fantasy-football/
I pick # 9 in my 1/2 point PPR re-draft, and Gordon scares the hell out of me. If I go RB there, it is likely to be Freeman, not Melvin. And if go WR there, it will likely be Jordy (unless Evans falls). 

 
I pick # 9 in my 1/2 point PPR re-draft, and Gordon scares the hell out of me. If I go RB there, it is likely to be Freeman, not Melvin. And if go WR there, it will likely be Jordy (unless Evans falls). 
Really? I would think the opposite, that in a PPR I'd be even more confident taking Gordon. Everyone said he couldn't catch a ball out of college, and last year ends up with a solid 41 catches averaging a first down (10.2 yards) on his 419 yards from them.

 
Really? I would think the opposite, that in a PPR I'd be even more confident taking Gordon. Everyone said he couldn't catch a ball out of college, and last year ends up with a solid 41 catches averaging a first down (10.2 yards) on his 419 yards from them.
I think he caught so many balls because so many Chargers receivers were hurt. I just feel like the biggest selling point about Gordon this year is not so much his talent, but the fact that he has such a good "opportunity." Over the years, I feel like I have gotten burned more times than I care to mention, taking lesser quality players simply because they had a better opportunity. 

 
I think he caught so many balls because so many Chargers receivers were hurt. I just feel like the biggest selling point about Gordon this year is not so much his talent, but the fact that he has such a good "opportunity." Over the years, I feel like I have gotten burned more times than I care to mention, taking lesser quality players simply because they had a better opportunity. 
His rookie year he had just as good, if not better opportunity. But he lost 90 carries to Branden Oliver and Donald Brown... Granted he was a rookie but he had every opportunity to run away with the job, literally.  

He still has Oliver and Farrow on the roster (Farrow got 60 carries last year and a fair number of receptions in limited action).  The only difference is no Woodhead, which was basically the situation for most of the season anyways. So I think we can pretty much count on exactly what he did last year as a minimum:

300 carries
1275 yards
50 receptions
500 receiving yards
14 total TDs

Should be enough to warrant selecting him as high as he's going. However, that's if he's healthy. I am fully expecting him to get hurt at some point resulting in missed games (I will say 3-4, which he is averaging a missed game for every 88 carries)
According to the web, he has about a 60% chance of getting hurt this season... so at least I have an objective number to my subjective concerns about his injury potential.
I'll stay away unless he falls to where he really shouldn't be. 

 
His rookie year he had just as good, if not better opportunity. But he lost 90 carries to Branden Oliver and Donald Brown... Granted he was a rookie but he had every opportunity to run away with the job, literally.  

He still has Oliver and Farrow on the roster (Farrow got 60 carries last year and a fair number of receptions in limited action).  The only difference is no Woodhead, which was basically the situation for most of the season anyways. So I think we can pretty much count on exactly what he did last year as a minimum:

300 carries
1275 yards
50 receptions
500 receiving yards
14 total TDs

Should be enough to warrant selecting him as high as he's going. However, that's if he's healthy. I am fully expecting him to get hurt at some point resulting in missed games (I will say 3-4, which he is averaging a missed game for every 88 carries)
According to the web, he has about a 60% chance of getting hurt this season... so at least I have an objective number to my subjective concerns about his injury potential.
I'll stay away unless he falls to where he really shouldn't be. 
If I am not mistaken, he has had at least two knee injuries. Maybe I am being a bit unfair to Melvin, but my gut (gradually expanding as I get older--LOL), tells me to stay away from him.

 
If I am not mistaken, he has had at least two knee injuries. Maybe I am being a bit unfair to Melvin, but my gut (gradually expanding as I get older--LOL), tells me to stay away from him.
His meniscus tear was significant... not your typical tear. His microfracture surgery is the #1 reason why I do not think he will hold up long term. 

He also sprained an ankle in his rookie preseason...

 
His meniscus tear was significant... not your typical tear. His microfracture surgery is the #1 reason why I do not think he will hold up long term. 

He also sprained an ankle in his rookie preseason...
Didn't he also lose a few games to a hip injury at some point as well ? 

 
His rookie year he had just as good, if not better opportunity. But he lost 90 carries to Branden Oliver and Donald Brown... Granted he was a rookie but he had every opportunity to run away with the job, literally.
Yes, he was a rookie who (a) missed 2 games to injury and (b) fumbled 6 times, which led to a short benching. Not surprising he "lost" 90 carries to others.

He still has Oliver and Farrow on the roster (Farrow got 60 carries last year and a fair number of receptions in limited action).
Gordon got hurt after just 3 carries in game 13 last season. Through week 12, Farrow had 20 carries and 1 reception, compared to 251 carries and 41 receptions for Gordon. Then, in Gordon's absence in games 13-15, Farrow had 40 carries and 12 receptions before he got hurt himself. The way you wrote this seems to imply that Farrow was a presence while Gordon was healthy, which is not true. Farrow is a JAG who I do not expect to make the Chargers' final roster this year.

As for Oliver, he is probably going to be Gordon's backup, and possibly get some work on passing downs. That is,iIf the Chargers don't sign a veteran RB before the season opens (e.g., Mathews if released by Philly), and assuming that Oliver beats out Barner. But Oliver is another JAG, and he is a JAG coming off an Achilles tear.

I get that you think that Gordon's injury history is concerning, and that is a legit concern, but some of what you posted about Gordon seems off base best case, worst case it seems disingenuous.

You also failed to acknowledge the change to a HC known for successful running offenses as well as the expected OL improvement.

 
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According to the web, he has about a 60% chance of getting hurt this season
Perhaps you can elaborate on what you are saying here. What 'web' says this? What does "getting hurt" mean here, having an injury he can play through, missing a game, missing multiple games, what?

 
need2know said:
Farrow sucks.  Zero chance he somehow takes carries from Gordon.  Gordon is a nice round 1 rb in redraft.  
I'm less worried about Farrow taking carries away from Gordon than I am a more healthy receiving corp taking TD's and receptions away from Gordon. Without the TD's he's a back that gets 3 point something yards per carry every year. You need a LOT of carries to justify being drafted in the 1st if you aren't scoring the dozen TD's to go with it.

 
I'm less worried about Farrow taking carries away from Gordon than I am a more healthy receiving corp taking TD's and receptions away from Gordon. Without the TD's he's a back that gets 3 point something yards per carry every year. You need a LOT of carries to justify being drafted in the 1st if you aren't scoring the dozen TD's to go with it.
:goodposting:

 
I hope he's not going to be an injury guy. There's not much worse than drafting someone who gets a boo boo.

Calvin Johnson was a professional. Larry Fitzgerald is a professional.

 
I'm less worried about Farrow taking carries away from Gordon than I am a more healthy receiving corp taking TD's and receptions away from Gordon. Without the TD's he's a back that gets 3 point something yards per carry every year. You need a LOT of carries to justify being drafted in the 1st if you aren't scoring the dozen TD's to go with it.
The what if game, not a fan of "what ifs." I'll let that sort itself out. Part of being a good fantasy owner is not letting things you cant control effect how you run a team. 

He is an unquestioned starting RB who will get a tons of carries with very little competition, very few of those in the NFL right now, draft accordingly. 

 
The what if game, not a fan of "what ifs." I'll let that sort itself out. Part of being a good fantasy owner is not letting things you cant control effect how you run a team. 

He is an unquestioned starting RB who will get a tons of carries with very little competition, very few of those in the NFL right now, draft accordingly. 
Good post. Also, an upgraded line and a healthy receivers should open up some more running lanes and a higher ypc.

 
There's a 96.8% chance of that percentage being absolutely meaningless.
Probably. I threw it out there just because it supported my opinion, but I do give it zero weight

Just Win Baby said:
Perhaps you can elaborate on what you are saying here. What 'web' says this? What does "getting hurt" mean here, having an injury he can play through, missing a game, missing multiple games, what?
The internets... a basic google search would help I think. 

Getting hurt means missing a game. I believe the statistic was 60% chance of injury missing 3-4 games., Again, I give it zero weight. But he is a high risk for injury IMO

 
He is an unquestioned starting RB who will get a tons of carries with very little competition, very few of those in the NFL right now, draft accordingly. 
All good points. But here's the thing about Gordon. No one seems to like him so much for his actual talent and ability, as much as they like him for his opportunity. He may outscore Freeman this year (although I doubt it), but I don't think anyone would say he is more talented than him. Plus, I know it may not be "scientific", but I do believe that some guys (like Gordon) are just more injury-prone than others. If I am not mistaken, Freeman has missed only 1 game in his career. Just sayin'.

 
He is an unquestioned starting RB who will get a tons of carries with very little competition, very few of those in the NFL right now, draft accordingly. 
Very true, and I'll admit there certainly aren't many other RB's that can make the same claim.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Yes, he was a rookie who (a) missed 2 games to injury and (b) fumbled 6 times, which led to a short benching. Not surprising he "lost" 90 carries to others.

Gordon got hurt after just 3 carries in game 13 last season. Through week 12, Farrow had 20 carries and 1 reception, compared to 251 carries and 41 receptions for Gordon. Then, in Gordon's absence in games 13-15, Farrow had 40 carries and 12 receptions before he got hurt himself. The way you wrote this seems to imply that Farrow was a presence while Gordon was healthy, which is not true. Farrow is a JAG who I do not expect to make the Chargers' final roster this year.

As for Oliver, he is probably going to be Gordon's backup, and possibly get some work on passing downs. That is,iIf the Chargers don't sign a veteran RB before the season opens (e.g., Mathews if released by Philly), and assuming that Oliver beats out Barner. But Oliver is another JAG, and he is a JAG coming off an Achilles tear.

I get that you think that Gordon's injury history is concerning, and that is a legit concern, but some of what you posted about Gordon seems off base best case, worst case it seems disingenuous.

You also failed to acknowledge the change to a HC known for successful running offenses as well as the expected OL improvement.
There are a lot of things to like about his opportunity, coaching staff, Ol, etc I am sure. He is a bell cow when there just aren't that many. He has a good chance at getting 40-50 receptions, which is huge for PPR. He is likely to get double digit TDs. All of which puts him in the top 5 discussion. I don't know how that's disingenuous. I thought I was being pretty realistic with my "if healthy" prediction... 

I am not saying everyone should stay away. I try to draft conservatively when it comes to injuries, and he's a guy I would stay away from. Yes, if I am at 1.08 and staring at Melvin Gordon I'm likely taking him and being very happy about it, but I wouldn't reach for him. Gordon could be the RB1, or 2 this year in fantasy... I think that's a realistic discussion we could have... but he hasn't shown any ability to stay healthy and that concerns me. High risk, very high reward type player. He won't cost the 1.01 pick so he represents some big upside for a mid first rounder. 

Again, if he can put together a 15-16 game season I will gladly jump on board this train. Being a WI fan I want him to succeed

 
.... an upgraded line and a healthy receivers should open up some more running lanes and a higher ypc.
His ypc have been trending up, which is a good thing. But that was also before the second season ending knee injury in two years. At some point you have to wonder if there will be a cumulative effect in his lateral agility which has been his calling card thus far as a pro.

Please, from now on I think we should describe the line as "revamped" rather than "improved" or "upgraded". Or let's actually be honest and say they added Okung, and two second day rookies(in a very, very poor OL draft btw) to start on the OL. I honestly don't know how the OL could play any worse but it's important to note that charger fans(and even ex-charger fans like myself) have been saying that for nearly a decade now.

 
All good points. But here's the thing about Gordon. No one seems to like him so much for his actual talent and ability, as much as they like him for his opportunity. He may outscore Freeman this year (although I doubt it), but I don't think anyone would say he is more talented than him. Plus, I know it may not be "scientific", but I do believe that some guys (like Gordon) are just more injury-prone than others. If I am not mistaken, Freeman has missed only 1 game in his career. Just sayin'.
I love him! He is talented as heck, he did OK his rookie year and he showed why he was a TOp 15 pick in the NFL last year, you can knock whatever you want, scoring TDs is not a given. He didnt have a nose for it in year one, he sure has a nose for it now. He is still growing, imagine this kid in 2 years. He catches passes and can make some plays in open field with his one cut ability, which should do wonder with the zone scheme they will have now. He is Charles 2.0 in my eyes. The product of his ypc is kinda the product of his offense.

He had two bad games yardage wise early in the year which hurt his yards but it was masked by TDs and catches...which is still something to consider at all times with him. 

I do not agree that Gordon is even remotely close to injury prone. Injuries happen, this rhetorical injury prone talking point is just that. 

 
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But is he talented ? Or is he "just a guy" who has a good opportunity (until he gets hurt) ?
I think he's more talented than I expected when they drafted him. He has some real ability in open space as a receiver and I certainly didn't count on that. But that's also the reason I think his productivity in in jeapordy more than most realize IF the other SD receivers stay healthy. 

By almost any measure I think most people would admit he isn't the runner he was billed as. And that was before any of his NFL injuries at the combine. People point to volume as the reason he's a "safe" pick in the first round but I don't see how he gets anymore volume than he had last year and even then he couldn't rush for a thousand yards. So if for any reason he doesn't reach his receiving production or TD count from last year it seems to me he is being drafted at the top of his ceiling. 

In the end it may depend on the type of league you play in. If I was in a double-up league I would probably consider Gordon and Howard as safe floor players in the back half of the first round because of opportunity. If I was playing in a winner-takes-all league I would lean more towards McCoy/Ajayi/Gurley in the first half of the second round because of higher possible ceilings and I just think those guys are more talented backs that COULD finish inside that group of anointed top 3 backs if everything fell right.

 
... he did OK his rookie year and he showed why he was a TOp 15 pick in the NFL last year...
Hey, tom telesco is that you?! I don't know anyone else that would describe 3.5 yards/carry, 641 yards rushing, and 0 TD's/4 fumbles as an "OK" year for a top-15 pick. That rookie year was an absolute train-wreck.

 
Hey, tom telesco is that you?! I don't know anyone else that would describe 3.5 yards/carry, 641 yards rushing, and 0 TD's/4 fumbles as an "OK" year for a top-15 pick. That rookie year was an absolute train-wreck.
Rookie year being operative phrase, and yes...he did OK his rookie year. 

Rookie = First year in the league. Why is it the norm that people believe all rookies must be All-pros. I did not say he was an all pro, I said he did OK and yes, 3.5 yards/carry, 641 yards rushing, and 0 TD's/4 fumbles is "OK" year for a top-15 pick in his rookie year. 

 
We are talking Kenneth Farrow? He got hit shot last year and it was not pretty at any level. 
Yeah, but again that OLine was not the greatest. So mediocre players could look way worse, like Farrow did. Hopefully better OLine this year with simpler blocking scheme for RBs.

 
Yeah, but again that OLine was not the greatest. So mediocre players could look way worse, like Farrow did. Hopefully better OLine this year with simpler blocking scheme for RBs.
Sure, the whole offense was suffering from injuries (what else is new with the Chargers), but where Gordon was able to pound inside and score TDs and catch the ball to make up for a run blocking line, Farrow couldn't. Also, Farrow lost a key fumble and it seemed like the Chargers didn't even want to give him the ball after that.

 
Sure, the whole offense was suffering from injuries (what else is new with the Chargers), but where Gordon was able to pound inside and score TDs and catch the ball to make up for a run blocking line, Farrow couldn't. Also, Farrow lost a key fumble and it seemed like the Chargers didn't even want to give him the ball after that.
Yeah, Farrow is mediocre at best, Gordon is a stud in my eyes. He is my #4 RB in dyno and redraft, he can do things Farrow and most other RBs cant. . 

DJ

Bell

Zeke

Gordon

Howard

Ajayi

Freeman

McCoy

Gurley

the rest...

 
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But is he talented ? Or is he "just a guy" who has a good opportunity (until he gets hurt) ?
I wouldn't go this far... 

He's a beast.... but we've seen "beasts" not hold up in the NFL (gronk, JJ watt...). He is talented. Very much so. I think he just beats his body too much

I think to shrug off his injuries as nothing to see here... I mean at what point do you start getting concern about a guy's playing style to the point where it opens him up to injuries more than someone who takes better care of himself? Brett Favre stayed healthy not because of his bones, genes, etc. He stayed healthy because of how he played and how he took hits. Sure much of that also has to do with being lucky to avoid certain circumstances but some guys play more reckless than others and their bodies can't take that kind of pounding. 

I just don't understand how some specific posters completely disregard injury history. Yes, you can't predict injuries, however some guys you can... their playing style or they have certain conditions that predispose them to greater risk... but I guess that's what makes us all different... some of us look at factors such as injury history and personal conduct as things to consider when drafting. Some guys just draft based on talent alone. And that's fine, but often times those guys can be very unreasonable/irrational. It makes discussion on that player exhausting, and at this point I've learned it's best to avoid threads with those posters... sucks to leave another thread because of one person however. If anyone cares to discuss microfracture surgery and how this would be a very negative implication for Gordon's longevity, I'd be happy to discuss but best in PM as I really don't want to deal with explaining myself 8 times to the more frustrating posters

 
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This whole "injury prone" discussion - wasn't his injuries last year caused by his diving into a scrum for a loose ball?  It's not like he's hurt each year on non-contact stuff. Last year just seemed fluky to me. 

 
This whole "injury prone" discussion - wasn't his injuries last year caused by his diving into a scrum for a loose ball?  It's not like he's hurt each year on non-contact stuff. Last year just seemed fluky to me. 
I am more concerned about his history of needing microfracture surgery. That is bad news for his longevity and life-expectancy as a starting NFL RB

 
Probably. I threw it out there just because it supported my opinion, but I do give it zero weight

The internets... a basic google search would help I think. 

Getting hurt means missing a game. I believe the statistic was 60% chance of injury missing 3-4 games., Again, I give it zero weight. But he is a high risk for injury IMO
A basic Google search on what? You are not being clear at all IMO. 

 
Rookie year being operative phrase, and yes...he did OK his rookie year. 

Rookie = First year in the league. Why is it the norm that people believe all rookies must be All-pros. I did not say he was an all pro, I said he did OK and yes, 3.5 yards/carry, 641 yards rushing, and 0 TD's/4 fumbles is "OK" year for a top-15 pick in his rookie year. 
Could not disagree more with this. His performance hurt the team. 

That said, he was definitely better in 2016. He seems to basically be a guy who gets what is blocked, which gives reason for optimism this year since the OL should be better. It also could be that new HC Lynn will implement and call an offense that is better for Gordon. 

 
Yeah, Farrow is mediocre at best, Gordon is a stud in my eyes. He is my #4 RB in dyno and redraft, he can do things Farrow and most other RBs cant. . 

DJ

Bell

Zeke

Gordon

Howard

Ajayi

Freeman

McCoy

Gurley

the rest...
I like your list except move McCoy right behind Gordon(redraft)

 
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A basic Google search on what? You are not being clear at all IMO. 
here

I'll say this again, I give this zero weight. I merely mentioned it as a side comment... I didn't intend to go into depth on the validity of the website or whatever their prediction values go by. I just mentioned it because I do believe he has a high chance of getting hurt and his long term outlook is not very good; if I was a dynasty player and owned him I would be looking to trade him. This website happens to have some bogus statistic that I threw out there as a side comment. I probably shouldn't have because now we are focused on this and I am willing to bet at least 3 more people make a comment on how much it is a crock of crap, which I completely agree with, thus my long disclaimer. 

At the end of the day, my personal opinion based on my own personal research, experience,  professional knowledge gives me a feeling that he is a higher risk of getting hurt than many of the other top 5-8 RBs. 

 
Rookie year being operative phrase, and yes...he did OK his rookie year. 

Rookie = First year in the league. Why is it the norm that people believe all rookies must be All-pros. I did not say he was an all pro, I said he did OK and yes, 3.5 yards/carry, 641 yards rushing, and 0 TD's/4 fumbles is "OK" year for a top-15 pick in his rookie year. 
Four fumbles on 76 touches is terrible but PFR only shows two, which is also mediocre. Did he fumble on KR or PR?

 
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Four fumbles on 76 touches is terrible but PFR only shows two, which is also mediocre. Did he fumble on KR or PR?
Lot of talk about 2 years ago and over descriptive words like "ok." We should be really talking about moving forward with Gordon.

Two years ago really has nothing to do with moving forward, but none the less, he was OK as a rookie. Also, there is more to your stats as a player, your upside, the ability you show. It all matters in saying a player did "ok." 

 

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