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RB Melvin Gordon, BAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I think Gordon and his agent completely misplayed this entire situation. The Spanos family showed no loyalty to San Diego--what made gordon and his agent think they would show him any loyalty? Not only that--every NFL player gets dinged up/hurt during the course of a season--there is a difference between getting hurt and getting injured. Gordon could have reported--collected his money--and once he got nicked up a bit--just exaggerate a bit and protect himself while actually getting paid. As much as I respect @Maurile Tremblay And his well thought out analysis--I think it's missing one big thing. Many players get hurt while they train and work out to stay in shape. What would have happened if Gordon did not report and tore his Achilles or ACL during his holdout? Could he have reported to the Chargers with a torn Achilles this year and still gotten paid--or would that result in a lost year and he'd still be under contract with the Chargest next year? I'm just curious about what the result of that hypothetical would be.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
People that are arguing or debating Gordon vs Ekeler...I'm curious what they think the Chargers' Front Office believes about both of these backs? Take us inside the war room you have built out in your head as to what goes on in the front offices of these organizations. I'd love to read the logic because the facts so far speak to a team that won't trade a guy who has rebuffed their contract extension offer which none of us truly know what was in it....but they have 2 other RBs killing it behind what has to be one of the better run blocking OL in all of football at the moment. An aging but still solid QB, pretty strong in most units offense/defense, why not trade Gordon for an asset or player in return you could use right now?
They want their cake and eat it too. They don't want to get roped into a bad contract, we understand but at the same time the demands in terms of draft picks was ridiculous and made it impossible for Gordon to get a trade partner. We won't pay him $12M a year but we want top RB compensation in return, in fact we want almost historic draft picks in return for Mel Gordon.
But continue to debate Ekeler vs Gordon, I'm sure in 2020 this mess will be clear and Ekeler will report for Year 4 of his rookie deal...oh he's a RFA?! Great so this is going to turn into a Ekeler vs Justin Jackson argument in January if not sooner. Ekeler and Gordon, both could be gone next year.
They want their cake and eat it too. They don't want to get roped into a bad contract, we understand but at the same time the demands in terms of draft picks was ridiculous and made it impossible for Gordon to get a trade partner. We won't pay him $12M a year but we want top RB compensation in return, in fact we want almost historic draft picks in return for Mel Gordon.
But continue to debate Ekeler vs Gordon, I'm sure in 2020 this mess will be clear and Ekeler will report for Year 4 of his rookie deal...oh he's a RFA?! Great so this is going to turn into a Ekeler vs Justin Jackson argument in January if not sooner. Ekeler and Gordon, both could be gone next year.
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That’s an interesting question.
He wouldn’t get paid while on the non-football injury list. I don’t know whether it would constitute a “failure ... to perform” under the contract for purposes of tolling (so that he’d still be under contract the following year).
I think there’s a decent chance that it would toll his contract if it kept him out all year, but I don’t think the situation has ever come up.
matttyl
Footballguy
Not saying Ekeler is a bad RB by any means, I just have trouble saying that any NFL RUNNING BACK is better than another when in a 2+ year career he's gone over 13 carries exactly twice - and in one of those two he got hurt and missed the next two games. Now I'm not saying Gordon is a sturdy back himself with the injuries he's had over his career, but he eclipsed that mark 8 times last year while missing games, and 14 times the year before.
You sometimes hear about a RB getting stronger throughout the game, wearing out a defense perhaps. Last year, on carries 1-10 Gordon averaged 4.5 yards per carry while Ekeler actually averaged a bit better at 5.4. What's interesting, though not with a huge body of work at least for Ekeler, is that on carries 11+ Gordon's YPC went up to 5.1, while Ekeler's dropped to a really bad 1.2. This was also evidenced in their YPC average by quarter. Gordon's strongest quarter was the fourth, where last year he averaged 6.1, but it was Ekeler's worst where he only averaged 4.1. I choose last year as both played a significant role in offense and their surrounding casts and games they played in were as close as I can make it.
Neither are bad RBs by any means, but they are different. If looking for a rushing RB, Gordon's my guy. If looking for a receiving RB, I'd likely go Ekeler - though I wouldn't consider Gordon's receiving skills to be a weakness.
Rove!
Footballguy
I also believe that RBs are more likely to get hurt in the earlier games of the season....
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I think that the ambiguity in this hypotethical absolutely should be factored into any "mathematical" analysis of whether or not a holdout was worth it or not. Even if there was a 20% chance that if he got hurt while holding out--and was unable to report/play the entire season--and if that resulted in him being in contract with the chargers for one more year at a more advanced age (at his below market pay). the financial ramifications to him could be huge. He'd make nothing this year--would be forced to play for under $6million next season--and would be a free agent at a more advanced age with an injury history that would concern many potential teams. That would have a huge impact on his potential future earnings. I do think this may have played a role in why he cut his holdout shorter than what a lot of people projected.
Frenchy Fuqua
Footballguy
Interesting article on PFF
https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-impact-of-melvin-gordons-return-to-the-chargers
https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-impact-of-melvin-gordons-return-to-the-chargers
matttyl
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Absolutely--the fines also need to be taken into account when making the risk/reward assessment of holding out for Gordon.
Also--the more I think about it--holding out longer would have put Gordon at massively more risk. Imagine if he held out until week 9--and then suffered just a moderate injury--a broken hand or wrist, a moderate calf strain, a moderately pulled hamstring--the kind of injury that keeps you out 8 weeks--which could lead to ambiguity on whether or not this year would count towards his contract. It wouldn't require a catastrophic type injury to muddy the waters. I think there are a ton of missing factors when people attempted to calculate risk/reward odds earlier in this thread for sure.
Deamon
Footballguy
Ekeler is gonna get 5 td's this week and then not be startable again the rest of the year
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
Assuming Ekeler is Player B and defining 3rd and long as 3rd and 4+, only 3 of his 191 career rushing attempts fit that situation. That is 1.6%. Maybe you should try again.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
They already know Ekeler is their go-forward guy.0% chance Melvin Gordon gets anything more than 50% of the touches with Chargers at any point this season (provided Ekeler stays healthy) .... Gordon will be gone next year & Chargers need to see if Ekeler can be "the man" for them moving forward.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not sure either but considering that Lynn left the possibility open that Gordon could play this weekend (which of course is unlikely) - would Gordon be playing for free?
I mean, Gordon shouldn’t be rushed just because Jackson is out. He’s either ready or he’s not. They could beat Miami with me at RB. Jackson’s status should be irrelevant.
matttyl
Footballguy
Quote from MJD on his RB article on NFL.com....
"Ekeler's production dipped slightly in Week 3, but his production is what I thought it would be. He's a good running back. He is. He's just not Melvin Gordon -- and that's why the Chargers have blown leads in their two losses."
Looked into it. Week 2 at the half they were up on the Lions 10-6. First drive on the 3rd, Bolts get down to the 1 yard line, first and goal. Ekeler fumbles. In only Bolts drive of 4th quarter, needing a score down 13-10 at this point, Ekeler gets three touches. 2 of them are for no gain - the third is a 5 yard game on a 2nd and 10.
Last week Bolts had lead at half. First drive of 3rd, J Jackson gets 2 touches - both go for negative yards. Ekeler had a single touch in the 4th quarter.
"Ekeler's production dipped slightly in Week 3, but his production is what I thought it would be. He's a good running back. He is. He's just not Melvin Gordon -- and that's why the Chargers have blown leads in their two losses."
Looked into it. Week 2 at the half they were up on the Lions 10-6. First drive on the 3rd, Bolts get down to the 1 yard line, first and goal. Ekeler fumbles. In only Bolts drive of 4th quarter, needing a score down 13-10 at this point, Ekeler gets three touches. 2 of them are for no gain - the third is a 5 yard game on a 2nd and 10.
Last week Bolts had lead at half. First drive of 3rd, J Jackson gets 2 touches - both go for negative yards. Ekeler had a single touch in the 4th quarter.
I don't think it's irrelevant. What if Ekeler gets injured on the first play of the game? Having an idea of who the backup RB is on a team favored by 15 is useful information. If it's not Gordon, perhaps Pope offers some value to a team with injuries or bye week problems.
BoltNlava
Footballguy
Looks like Gordon may see the field this Sunday gentleman. This is a game where the Chargers lose focus and look ahead. Lynn may use Gordon to sharpen that focus. I have seen this movie before. It was called " the Chargers lose a game they would've could've should've won but lost cuz they are the Chargers"(see last week). Lynn knows this. makes me think he tries something, anything to motivate a team who seems too good/bad to believe the press they get.
Weebs210
Footballguy
You misunderstood me. I was saying Jackson being out should be irrelevant to the Chargers decision to play Gordon. He’s either ready or he isn’t. They can easily beat Miami without Gordon.
Chargers could sleepwalk to a 20 point win. This Dolphins team might be the worst ever. Like sub expansion team level. I don’t think they would beat the chargers if Rivers sat out.
I simply asked who would be the backup since Jackson probably isn't playing.
Lynn has said Gordon is doubtful this week, but they need someone as a backup RB. I don't see a great reason it's not Gordon especially since he won't be a Charger next year.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
BoltNlava
Footballguy
But will they?? Anyone with eyes on last week knows the fact that this team can achieve any loss with all the effort they can muster. I worry we see another one. Remember the Cleveland loss?
The Bills beat the Vikings in Minnesota last year as 16.5 underdogs. Knocked out a billion survivor pools. Any given Sunday.
BoltNlava
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I understand what you are saying, but I think you are overestimating Miami. They don’t even want to win. They are much worse than that Browns team was. They were at least competitive some weeks.
BoltNlava
Footballguy
The Dolphins played pretty hard in the the first half of that patriots game. If Miami gives 2/3 of that effort we may see an upset. Miami may want to lose but the Chargers have made an art of this and you might see a masterpiece.
SayWhat? said:
Yep, totally forgot about the Ekeler fumble from the 1 yard line against the Lions with a four point 2nd half lead. It feels a bit like certain posters may have a bitterness towards Gordon about his holdout that’s clouding their ability to neutrally assess whether Gordon just might possibly have had a positive impact on the Chargers weekly outcomes in their two losses. Ekeler and Jackson are capable replacements, but it’s absolutely plausible that their deficiencies and/or Gordon’s absence was a net negative factor and has contributed to the Chargers 1-2 record.
I just don’t see winnable matchups on either side for Miami. 27-6 feels pretty fair. Expecting 2 sacks each for Bosa/Ingram, probably 300/3 for rivers, 150/1 for Allen, 150/2 for Ekeler, with another rb(pope) having 50 or so himself.
Yep, and they played Dallas tough in the 1H. Josh Rosen looked decent until he was injured and there were a couple of easy drops by Miami WRs. They also get Albert Wilson back who was the best yac WR last year. Rosen is expected to start over Fitz this week.
Their schedule has been brutal so far this year (Bal 2-1 only losing to KC by less than a TD), NE 3-0 and Dal 3-0. I don't really think the Chargers are in that company in terms of talent and coaching.
BoltNlava
Footballguy
I kinda hope you are right. Rivers deserves a few wins on the way out. I fear you may not be. Gordon could make a difference.
#SDforever #LAsproblemnow
matttyl
Footballguy
Weebs210
Footballguy
I also don't think Jackson's status is irrelevant. His being out makes it more likely that Gordon will suit up.
In the short practice clips I saw, Gordon looks physically ready to go. He's not obviously out of shape or anything. ("Game shape" is a real thing, but if he's not in game shape, that just means all of his leg muscles will be unusually sore on Monday. It doesn't mean his performance would be affected on Sunday.)
And I'd expect him to be mentally ready as well.
If Jackson were okay, I'd sit Gordon out on a short week (for him).
With Jackson out. I'd put Gordon in to take Jackson's role. (And I'd pay him, obviously. Since he didn't report Wednesday, the team wouldn't be obligated to pay him. But if you play him, you should definitely pay him. That was probably the deal when he showed up on Thursday.)
In the short practice clips I saw, Gordon looks physically ready to go. He's not obviously out of shape or anything. ("Game shape" is a real thing, but if he's not in game shape, that just means all of his leg muscles will be unusually sore on Monday. It doesn't mean his performance would be affected on Sunday.)
And I'd expect him to be mentally ready as well.
If Jackson were okay, I'd sit Gordon out on a short week (for him).
With Jackson out. I'd put Gordon in to take Jackson's role. (And I'd pay him, obviously. Since he didn't report Wednesday, the team wouldn't be obligated to pay him. But if you play him, you should definitely pay him. That was probably the deal when he showed up on Thursday.)
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
0% chance Melvin Gordon gets anything more than 50% of the touches with Chargers at any point this season
Some posts you just want to keep track of and this would be one of them. It's not a shaming type quote in any way but it's pretty bold and I will take the over that Gordon gets over 50% of the touches in at least a game or two this season
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Please...we need better than an "A", can we at least get a Family Ties avatar or think about the DeLorean scene at Pines Mall...give us something to work with would ya?
Weebs210
Footballguy
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
I’m in a bad spot in my dynasty league this week - looking at the likes of Adam Humphries or Trey Quinn (if Terry is out) as a flex 
If he’s active on Sunday? Starting him easily. He could get 5 carries and 2 TD’s against that dolphins team.
No doubt Ekeler will be the main back, but GL opportunities should funnel towards Melvin.
If he’s active on Sunday? Starting him easily. He could get 5 carries and 2 TD’s against that dolphins team.
No doubt Ekeler will be the main back, but GL opportunities should funnel towards Melvin.
