Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

RB Melvin Gordon, DEN


gianmarco

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, zamboni said:

Per a few tweets, supposedly finalizing a deal with a team right now. Have seen a few reports it is Denver.

I've heard rumors of this for a while. This would be a tremendous upgrade  over Royce Freeman and exactly what a young QB like Drew Lock needs. I think Denver will draft a stud WR to go with Sutton. With Noah Fant developing, this could be a solid offensive squad. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rotoworld:

Quote

CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora reports the Broncos signed free agent RB Melvin Gordon.

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports it's a two-year, $16 million deal with $13.5 million guaranteed. The Broncos could certainly use an additional weapon or two on offense for second-year QB Drew Lock, but addressing the RB position is curious considering Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman were largely fine in 2019. MGIII is certainly the better pass-down RB from the group, although Lindsay (4.9 YPC) and Freeman (3.9) have had similar-to-better success over their careers on a per-rush basis compared to Gordon (4). This is a complete mess as far as fantasy is concerned, as a committee backfield is incredibly likely unless we see an additional move take place.

SOURCE: Jason La Canfora on Twitter

Mar 20, 2020, 1:40 PM ET

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's a weird destination... I thought Royce was pretty good last year myself. I would assume Gordon takes over most of the 2 down work with Lindsay the 3rd down back?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, The Frankman said:

That's a weird destination... I thought Royce was pretty good last year myself. I would assume Gordon takes over most of the 2 down work with Lindsay the 3rd down back?

Will be interesting to see how they use Lindsay...there is a perception (maybe it's his size) he is a fit for a third down RB but he has rushed for over 1,000 yards both of his seasons in the NFL...Gordon only has one in five years (he did have another at 997)...Lindsay also rushed for 2,726 yards combined his last two years at Colorado...real football this should be a very good backfield but fantasy-wise it could be a little dicey...especially if Freeman sprinkles in a few touches a game as well. 

Edited by Boston
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Boston said:

Will be interesting to see how they use Lindsay...there is a perception (maybe it's his size) he is a fit for a third down RB but he has rushed for over 1,000 yards both of his seasons in the NFL...Gordon only has one in five years (he did have another at 997)...Lindsay also rushed for 2,726 yards combined his last two years at Colorado...real football this should be a very good backfield but fantasy-wise it could be a little dicey...especially if Freeman sprinkles in a few touches a game as well. 

If they don't trade/cut Lindsey or Freeman it's the backfield from Hell.

Edited by The Frankman
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chris Harris signed a 2 year contract with the Chargers for $17M, with $9.5M guaranteed. Really hard for me to believe that Denver let Harris walk to a division opponent and then signed Gordon for basically the same overall contract, with more guaranteed money. I would think Harris is more valuable than Gordon.

As for Gordon, we don't necessarily know exactly what was offered to him by the Chargers last year, but it seems very likely he cost himself money by not taking it.

As for fantasy, I have to think this hurts Gordon's value. I doubt the Denver offense will get him as many goal line/red zone opportunities as he got with the Chargers. I also doubt he will get the same volume of targets (5.1 per game over last 3 seasons) or the same quality of targets (Rivers to Lock). Glad I don't own him in dynasty.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, The Frankman said:

If they don't trade/cut Lindsey or Freeman it's the backfield form Hell.

Lindsay was  undrafted and Freeman was a third round pick...due to that they make little money so you aren't getting cap relief if you trade them...real football-wise you can just ride them and have a stacked backfield unless someone makes a real good trade offer.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, beef said:

Gets away from Ekeler, only to land with a RB of similar talent and skills.  MGIII will continue to live and die fantasy wise by TDs.  I do like the fit for the overall good of Lock and Denver's offense.  

Huh.  I don't think Ekeler and Lindsay have the same skills at all.   Lindsay is a really runner but not a special receiving back.   He runs super well between the tackles.   Ekeler is a special receiving back who is a subpar runner, especially between the tackles.   They are almost polar opposites in terms of actual skills.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

People are right -- I also have Gordon on one of my teams (dynasty) and I just hate this location for him. He did get a reasonable deal though, with good guaranteed money, so good for him, but bad for people that roster him.

Meh.   He was in a timeshare last year, and he is again now.   Denver wouldn't pay him 2 years, $16M (with $13.5M guaranteed) if they didn't plan to use him a fair amount.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

So what you are saying is if Gordon was in a situation where almost any NFL RB would succeed, you can see Gordon succeeding? I agree with that.

No.  I think Gordon would be better than most any other RB in a situation where he has room to operate.   In backfields where there is less space, creativity and quickness are more valuable.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/6/2020 at 2:21 PM, menobrown said:

 

I still think he can get something similar as Freeman got in terms of APY. I'm anticipating $8-10M per year-lean something closer to higher side on that, and hard to say on the guarantees but I'm guessing his contract will be structured in such a way as he is almost essentially guaranteed to see first two years of that deal and team easy to move on after two seasons.  Which  now that think about it I'm almost describing  the contract the 49'ers gave McKinnon. I think he can get that kind of deal

 

 

On 3/6/2020 at 3:05 PM, BoltBacker said:

Yeah, we'll see. I just can't see it. 

 

Got low end of my estimate but he got right in ballpark of what I expected.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Well folks, it's not like Lindsey and Freeman are going away.  Looks like a cluster you know what to me.

Freeman will likely be relegated to a backup role moving forward. He has no specific strength either running/passing/GL carries.

Lindsay and Gordon will be 1A and 1B. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Got low end of my estimate but he got right in ballpark of what I expected.

I dunno, 2yr/$13.5mil guaranteed seems pretty far from 2ry/$20mil guaranteed to me. At $6+mil/season I suppose that makes him the starter but probably of a RBBC. At the end of this contract he'll be turning 29 right about the time of FA in 2022. It puts him right in the range of Lamar Miller..... probably what he should have been asking for all along. The smartest move Telesco has made as a GM was having Gordon reject $10mil/season for who knows how long.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

I dunno, 2yr/$13.5mil guaranteed seems pretty far from 2ry/$20mil guaranteed to me. At $6+mil/season I suppose that makes him the starter but probably of a RBBC. At the end of this contract he'll be turning 29 right about the time of FA in 2022. It puts him right in the range of Lamar Miller..... probably what he should have been asking for all along. The smartest move Telesco has made as a GM was having Gordon reject $10mil/season for who knows how long.

Come on man. You said you can't see it , it happened and you still can't see it.

I never said a thing about 2 years with $20M guaranteed. Look at what I wrote again in my post and tell me again what I was wrong about? This is really just being stubborn on your part. He got the $8M a year I said he'd get and like I said it's not all guaranteed but like I said multiple time is essentially guaranteed because most of his contract is guaranteed.

Take the L already.

Edited by menobrown
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/18/2020 at 12:11 PM, BoltBacker said:

It would be pretty funny if he went to the division rival donkeys to split time with Lindsay on a cheap contract.

I'm a little surprised he found someone Lamar Miller money, was expecting something a little closer Latavius Murray/Tevin Coleman contract. You would think he would be a starter in den with that contract, but you would also think he would outperform Ekeler if Gordon thought he should get paid $14mil/season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, Hairy Snowman said:

He is a much better pass blocker then either Lindsay or Freeman.  It is a short deal. 

I don't know how good Lindsay or Freeman are at it, since I don't follow Denver. But Gordon is not very good at it. Here are his pass blocking grades from PFF:

  • 2015 - 31 snaps, 74.0 grade (#63T out of 158 RBs to receive a pass blocking grade)
  • 2016 - 57 snaps, 68.8 grade (#95 out of 157 RBs to receive a pass blocking grade)
  • 2017 - 85 snaps, 55.8 grade (#96 out of 148 RBs to receive a pass blocking grade)
  • 2018 - 53 snaps, 48.1 grade (#94 out of 148 RBs to receive a pass blocking grade)
  • 2019 - 15 snaps, 47.0 grade (#109 out of 147 RBs to receive a pass blocking grade)

Definitely trending in the wrong direction. Per PFF he allowed 5 sacks, 6 hits, and 16 hurries for a total of 27 pressures in those 241 snaps (11.2%).

Here are 2019 grades for the other two:

  • Freeman - 48 snaps, 73.7 grade (#43)
  • Lindsay - 31 snaps, 19.5 grade (#143) :X 
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/5/2019 at 7:31 PM, davearm said:

Given his options, I think it's pretty reasonable for him to hold out and minimize his injury exposure.  Play the 6 games (or whatever the magic number is) for $2M or whatever, and get out of there.  That's arguably better than enduring 16 games' worth of being run into the ground by a team that's moving on.

If this were true wouldn't it been advisable for him to sit out this season as well until someone was willing to give him $14mil/season? I mean he would have been healthy as a spring chicken heading into 2021.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As a Broncos fan, I am not a fan of this signing.  Gordon is a good RB, but not a different maker, and considering the Broncos already had a good 1-2 punch at RB (that could have been really good with a better O-line), it is baffling especially since the Broncos need improvement in other areas.  I am guessing they view Freeman as a virtual bust at this point and view Gordon and Lindsay as a better 1-2 punch.  I will be rooting hard for Gordon to succeed of course, just not sure if it was a great deal.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Gordon with a regular training camp and being in shape can be a difference maker, but I don't see how in this backfield. He's a 3-down guy with decent pass catching chops who will probably play only 2 downs and sit every 3rd series here; I mean you have to showcase Freeman and Lindsay on the trade block.

1 minute ago, mozzy84 said:

Nice contract for him after the big mistake last year, he got alot more than I thought he would!   He should be pretty good in denver if he can stay on the field.   Could be a value pick come august

Oh yeah he definitely got more thaan I thought also. I thought he'd be staring at $5 a year with a last-place team and crying in the car somewhere. Now he gets $8 (with a good chunk guaranteed) with a competitive team and he faces the Chargers twice a year?

Edited by The Frankman
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, The Frankman said:

I think Gordon with a regular training camp and being in shape can be a difference maker, but I don't see how in this backfield. He's a 3-down guy with decent pass catching chops who will probably play only 2 downs and sit every 3rd series here; I mean you have to showcase Freeman and Lindsay on the trade block.

Oh yeah he definitely got more thaan I thought also. I thought he'd be staring at $5 a year with a last-place team and crying in the car somewhere. Now he gets $8 (with a good chunk guaranteed) with a competitive team and he faces the Chargers twice a year?

Why would Gordon only play 2-downs?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Ghost Rider said:

I am guessing they view Freeman as a virtual bust at this point and view Gordon and Lindsay as a better 1-2 punch.  

That was my first thought as well, which is why I was surprised by the $6.5mil/season. Gordon is better than Freeman imo, but is he really $5.5mil better? Seems like they are completely giving up on a 2018 2nd round draft choice pretty early. Maybe they think they can trade him instead of using him as the #3 RB????

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

That was my first thought as well, which is why I was surprised by the $6.5mil/season. Gordon is better than Freeman imo, but is he really $5.5mil better? Seems like they are completely giving up on a 2018 2nd round draft choice pretty early. Maybe they think they can trade him instead of using him as the #3 RB????

FWIW Freeman was a 3rd round pick and teams give up on 3rd round picks pretty quickly sometimes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

FWIW Freeman was a 3rd round pick and teams give up on 3rd round picks pretty quickly sometimes.

You're right. I was going by Spotrac to find out his salary to compare that to the new Gordon deal and for some reason they have him listed as a 2nd round draft choice. Odd........

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/denver-broncos/royce-freeman-25170/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, PhantomJB said:

I have no idea what you're talking about.

Scroll back about 8 months. There were countless conversations about Gordon having perfectly reasonable demands and once he came back the chargers were going to run him into the ground after his holdout since they had no intention of extending him. It's pretty funny reading from August right up until he actually started playing again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

But here's the thing... it's not 8 months ago. We are talking about today. It's like Barnwell said:

Quote

It's not quite the $10 million-per -year offer Gordon reportedly turned down from the Chargers around the time of his holdout, but with $13.5 million guaranteed, it's likely he sees the full $16 million from this new deal. In the end, there's probably not much difference between signing a four-year, $40 million deal with half of it guaranteed, which is likely where Gordon's Chargers deal would have landed, and signing this deal with a chance to hit free agency again after the salary cap rises in a couple of years.

You don't keep negotiating the same deal when it's obvious you won't get it, you have to be flexible and Gordon got a great offer for himself considering the climate. You see Gurley getting cut and RBs being devalued over the last 4-5 years in the NFL... Gordon didn't do too badly for himself.

24 minutes ago, PhantomJB said:

Why would Gordon only play 2-downs?

That's the issue.... If you make Gordon the 3 down horse, you destroy the value of Lindsay (who arguably is a more efficient back). I'd say the Broncos didn't need Gordon, but the have him now so you have to do everything you can to keep Freeman and Lindsay's value high so you can get a good pick back for one of them. So they kinda need to split the baby here.

Edited by The Frankman
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, The Frankman said:

That's the issue.... If you make Gordon the 3 down horse, you destroy the value of Lindsay (who arguably is a more efficient back). I'd say the Broncos didn't need Gordon, but the have him now so you have to do everything you can to keep Freeman and Lindsay's value high so you can get a good pick back for one of them. So they kinda need to split the baby here.

True. But the way the Broncos have used Freeman/Lindsay has been more generally "splitting workload" vs. "situational."

So the key word in your post is "horse." In 2020 I don't see either Lindsay or Gordon coming off the field solely due to down and distance, which is why I questioned your "2-down" statement.

One additional intangible is that Phillip Lindsay (and Von Miller) are the emotional heart and soul of that team. Lindsay will be on the field plenty.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, The Frankman said:

It's not quite the $10 million-per -year offer Gordon reportedly turned down from the Chargers around the time of his holdout, but with $13.5 million guaranteed, it's likely he sees the full $16 million from this new deal. In the end, there's probably not much difference between signing a four-year, $40 million deal with half of it guaranteed, which is likely where Gordon's Chargers deal would have landed, and signing this deal with a chance to hit free agency again after the salary cap rises in a couple of years.

I disagree with this.

Let's say the Chargers offered him a 4 year, $40M deal last offseason, with $20M guaranteed, which amounted to signing bonus and salaries in his first 2 seasons. Perhaps something like $8M signing bonus and salaries of $4M, $8M, $9M, $11M. If he signed that last year, he would have already completed year 1, and he would have already been paid $12M, with $8M to come in 2020.

Then the team could cut him after the 2020 season, and he would be free to go sign a new contract with new guaranteed money. Or the team could keep him and pay him $9M more. So either he would have made $20M and gotten more guaranteed money in 2021 from a new contract, or he would have earned $29M by 2021.

As things stand now, assuming the Chargers withheld all of the permissible fines from him last year and assuming he will get the full value of his new contract, he stands to make about $18.3M from 2019-2021.

I suppose YMMV, but I wouldn't call that "not much difference".

  • Love 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

be careful about the quote, I didn't say that. That's ESPN analyst Bill Barnwell explaining the move and grading it (D+, because he felt Broncos didn't need MGIII and they messed up Lindsay and Freeman).

Edited by The Frankman
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

Oh no, is thing going to be a "Gordon is so much better than Ekeler Linsday why wouldn't Gordon get a full workload?!" season again..... lmao?

Although it's been mentioned, it hasn't been fairly noted that Gordon really is a good receiving back. He played with Ekeler who I, and I think the Chargers, thought was better at it, but in Gordon's last 2 full seasons with Ekeler to contend with,  MG still have 490 and 476 yards receiving and 8 receiving TDs. During the 2 seasons when Lindsay was, in people's minds, the receiving back for the Broncos, he had 196 yards and then 241 yards and 1 total TD. Last year even Freeman, with the same lacking QB play, out gained Lindsay in receiving yards 252 to 241. Lindsey is small and quick for a RB, but he is not an effective receiving back. In Gordon's 2/3 of last season, when Ekeler was probably the best receiving back in football after McCaffrey, Gordon still had 296 yards in his 11 games - nearly on pace for 500 once again.

Gordon has been a top 5 or 7 RB for several years. While many run him down for only breaking 1,000 yards once on the ground and having a low ypc. He is a top fantasy producer because he is a quality receiving threat (even with Ekeler being better at it).

My view is that the Broncos  have faced him a lot and know what he can do as a dual threat and how much harder that makes the offense to defend, and decided they are willing to pay for those skills. I see Gordon being the primary receiving threat and he and Lindsay sharing the running duties with their quite different styles. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

I disagree with this.

Let's say the Chargers offered him a 4 year, $40M deal last offseason, with $20M guaranteed, which amounted to signing bonus and salaries in his first 2 seasons. Perhaps something like $8M signing bonus and salaries of $4M, $8M, $9M, $11M. If he signed that last year, he would have already completed year 1, and he would have already been paid $12M, with $8M to come in 2020.

Then the team could cut him after the 2020 season, and he would be free to go sign a new contract with new guaranteed money. Or the team could keep him and pay him $9M more. So either he would have made $20M and gotten more guaranteed money in 2021 from a new contract, or he would have earned $29M by 2021.

As things stand now, assuming the Chargers withheld all of the permissible fines from him last year and assuming he will get the full value of his new contract, he stands to make about $18.3M from 2019-2021.

I suppose YMMV, but I wouldn't call that "not much difference".

Right.  He got almost the same amount of guaranteed money over the first 2 years of the deal.  The problem is that he wasted a year which as an about to turn 27 year old RB was an extremely valuable year.

To be fair though he was due to make $4.5 million this season which would have balanced things out a lot.  I'm not sure how the holdout affected that.

If he signed in SD he would have made $20 mil over '19-'20 and whatever he signed for in '21 if he was cut. 

With his current situation he made $4.5 mil in '19 and $18 mil in '20-'21.  So the difference is however much over the $2.5 million difference he would have made in 2021 in scenario 1.  Minus whatever he lost in the holdout as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

:lmao: Looks like Gordon's agent caught making up rumor of "larger offer" for Gordon. And Mike Klis taking the brunt of it. Poor guy.

The whole "revenge narrative" made zero sense in signing with Denver..

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1241192305694060544

Quote

 

@AdamSchefter

Agent reached out to Bills; Bills never made offer.

 

Quote

 

@AdamSchefter

Just to be clear, Mike, Bills didn’t make any offers to Gordon.

 

Quote

 

@MikeKlis

Bills offered a little more to Melvin Gordon than Broncos per Broncos player source. Gordon grew up in Wisconsin so he’s not afraid of cold weather but he wanted to play for Broncos organization. #9sports

 

 

Edited by Craig_MiamiFL
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Craig_MiamiFL said:

 

:lmao: Looks like Gordon's agent caught making up rumor of "larger offer" for Gordon. And Mike Klis taking the brunt of it. Poor guy.

The whole "revenge narrative" made zero sense in signing with Denver..

https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1241192305694060544

 

Meh.  Bills might just not like losing out.  Schefter could be wrong, who really knows.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Joe Bryant changed the title to RB Melvin Gordon, DEN

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
  • Create New...