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  • 3 weeks later...

What a disappointing rookie season.

133-553-4.2-2

24-176-7.3-1

33-1013-30.7-0

2nd in kickoff return average is one of the few highlights. Gained 94 YFS week 1, season high 77 yards rushing v. the Saints last week.

No one seemed to foresee that Theo Riddick would more than double his receiving production - he's at 77-668-3.

If Zenner recovers they may cut Joique.

Will be interesting how the new GM and (hopefully) new HC value him going forward. Showed flashes but ball security issues plagued him all year (4 fumbles - once every 39 touches is not really acceptable at this level.)

Edited by BobbyLayne
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I expected more, but he's sitting at 4.2 YPC with decent production as a receiver. It's not a rookie year that screams future star, but he at least seems useful at this level. The biggest curveball for me was Riddick's heavy involvement, as I expected him to be a non-factor here. Stack his numbers onto Abdullah's and you have something a lot closer to the rookie year I anticipated from AA.

I'm curious to see where his dynasty value settles in the offseason. His value has dropped in my estimation, but if you can get him for something like RB20-RB30 value then I'd probably still buy/hold. I kind of see him as similar to Tre Mason, which is both a good thing and a bad thing. Both guys probably have the talent to yield top 15 seasons if they go to a team that utilizes them heavily, but that's not necessarily a guarantee since they lack obvious elite every down skills to command a starting role in every team context.

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I expected more, but he's sitting at 4.2 YPC with decent production as a receiver. It's not a rookie year that screams future star, but he at least seems useful at this level. The biggest curveball for me was Riddick's heavy involvement, as I expected him to be a non-factor here. Stack his numbers onto Abdullah's and you have something a lot closer to the rookie year I anticipated from AA.

I'm curious to see where his dynasty value settles in the offseason. His value has dropped in my estimation, but if you can get him for something like RB20-RB30 value then I'd probably still buy/hold. I kind of see him as similar to Tre Mason, which is both a good thing and a bad thing. Both guys probably have the talent to yield top 15 seasons if they go to a team that utilizes them heavily, but that's not necessarily a guarantee since they lack obvious elite every down skills to command a starting role in every team context.

If Theo was to somehow disappear his value would certainly increase.

If there is another back coming in next year it would be more likely a short yardage guy imo.

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Joique Bell had a great comment about Theo Riddick:

"It's not complicated. He's got one move. It's a helluva move, he makes that first guy miss every single time, but still, it's just one move."

Darius Slay calls it the dead leg. He sticks his leg out like he's going one way, the DB/LB goes that way, he pulls it back and goes the other way. Works. Every. Time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMwAxjmEUbo

Lot of front office decisions to be made before we know what 2016 will bring for AA.

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Rotoworld:

Ameer Abdullah rushed 10 times for 44 yards and caught his lone target for seven yards in the Lions' Week 17 win over the Bears.

Abdullah's fantasy Average Draft Position skyrocketed to out-of-control levels during a dynamic preseason. When the real games began, Abdullah was essentially a between-the-20s role player in one of the NFL's worst running games who ceded scoring-position work to Joique Bell, and virtually all passing-game usage to Theo Riddick. Abdullah's rookie year was a successful one in real life, but he was never more than a bottom-barrel flex option in fantasy leagues. He finishes at 597 yards and two touchdowns on 143 carries (4.17 YPC) with 24 catches and one more score through the air. Abdullah will remain an intriguing mid-round gamble in 2016 fantasy drafts. He doesn't turn 23 until June.
Jan 3 - 5:06 PM
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Riddick finished the year with 80 receptions for 697 yards, both records for a Lions RB. As Joique Bell says, "The guy has one move. But it's a heckuva move." That to me is the summation of Abdullah's rookie year, nobody realized how effective Theo would be.

The O-line was terrible this year.

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  • 1 month later...
11 hours ago, rumsey182 said:

Prepare for Ameer to be the next David Wilson overhyped RB. This could be cool because I like Theo Riddick. 

I like them both :shrug:

And let's not get haughty about David Wilson. I avoided him like the plague because I thought he was overhyped/overpriced, but the truth is I'll never know if I was right. Nobody knows. The answer on that debate will forevermore be "not enough data."

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It's still wait and see on Abdullah's work load.  I expect they'll bring in a big back of some sort so it depends on the quality of that guy.

And you can't underestimate Riddick from the perspective that he seems to be the clear receiving back and he was very productive in that role (he had 80 receptions at 8.7 yards per).

So if Abdullah is capped in receptions by Riddick and possibly capped as the short yardage/GL banger (depending on who they bring in) then, yeah, I think he could be overdrafted.

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6 hours ago, Chaka said:

It's still wait and see on Abdullah's work load.  I expect they'll bring in a big back of some sort so it depends on the quality of that guy.

And you can't underestimate Riddick from the perspective that he seems to be the clear receiving back and he was very productive in that role (he had 80 receptions at 8.7 yards per).

So if Abdullah is capped in receptions by Riddick and possibly capped as the short yardage/GL banger (depending on who they bring in) then, yeah, I think he could be overdrafted.

It's possible that Zenner, who is already on the roster, is that "big back".

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33 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

It's possible that Zenner, who is already on the roster, is that "big back".

Oh yeah I completely forgot about the great white hype.

It certainly could be him.  My only point is only that I don't think we have enough information to determine if Abdullah will be given a legitimate lead back workload and I don't think that cutting Joique Bell really changes that much.

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19 hours ago, rumsey182 said:

Prepare for Ameer to be the next David Wilson overhyped RB. This could be cool because I like Theo Riddick. 

This is not a good example.  David Wilson suffered a career ending neck injury.  He was extremely talented until that happened and the "hype" was warranted.  

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Another overhyped Lion who will bust just like Jahvid Best.

Kidding, can't be comparing him to guys whose careers were cut short by injury.  I just put Abdullah on my trade block, going to see what kind of offers I get for him, as quite a few teams in my league are hurting at RB.  

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37 minutes ago, TheBottomLine said:

Another overhyped Lion who will bust just like Jahvid Best.

Kidding, can't be comparing him to guys whose careers were cut short by injury.  I just put Abdullah on my trade block, going to see what kind of offers I get for him, as quite a few teams in my league are hurting at RB.  

Let us know what comes back.  I'd probably be buying now rather than selling.

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1 hour ago, -CE- said:

Let us know what comes back.  I'd probably be buying now rather than selling.

Yeah I understand but I have Dion Lewis, all of Minnesota and Atlanta's backfields, and David Johnson as well as the Detroit guys.  We only start two and it's full PPR.   I'll post any offers I receive.  

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15 hours ago, -CE- said:

This is not a good example.  David Wilson suffered a career ending neck injury.  He was extremely talented until that happened and the "hype" was warranted.  

Wilson was getting boardline first round hype because of plays he broke off that were called back on holding calls, it was hilarious. 

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On February 17, 2016 at 8:32 PM, rumsey182 said:

Prepare for Ameer to be the next David Wilson overhyped RB. This could be cool because I like Theo Riddick. 

 

On February 17, 2016 at 8:07 AM, FF Ninja said:

I like them both :shrug:

And let's not get haughty about David Wilson. I avoided him like the plague because I thought he was overhyped/overpriced, but the truth is I'll never know if I was right. Nobody knows. The answer on that debate will forevermore be "not enough data."

 

On February 17, 2016 at 4:07 PM, -CE- said:

This is not a good example.  David Wilson suffered a career ending neck injury.  He was extremely talented until that happened and the "hype" was warranted.  

 

18 hours ago, rumsey182 said:

Wilson was getting boardline first round hype because of plays he broke off that were called back on holding calls, it was hilarious. 

 

18 hours ago, rumsey182 said:

Wilson was getting boardline first round hype because of plays he broke off that were called back on holding calls, it was hilarious. 

14 hours ago, -CE- said:

Well, I'd never have taken him in the first or even second round... 

Oh please don't let this thread turn into David Wilson 5.0.  If there was an imogi with a guy praying I would insert it now. 

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  • 1 month later...
Quote

Ameer Abdullah said his rookie year was a bit of a "culture shock."

 

"I feel like I showed some flashes last year, but in this league you can’t show flashes," he said. "You have to be consistent." Abdullah said his mistakes snowballed because he'd get "down in the dumps" after making a poor play. The 22-year-old claims his improvement late in the year had to do with "trusting" his teammates. Abdullah has the raw skills to be a force for the Lions, but he'll continue to underachieve unless he gets mentally tougher.
 
 
Mar 20 - 10:35 AM

 

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5 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

Unfortunately Abdullah would be best suited to a CoP role and Riddick is better than him at it. So good luck to anyone who buys into him, he has bust written all over him.

CoP or 3rd down back?  Because Riddick does the 3rd down thing, right?

I'd be taking Abdullah over Riddick.  My guess is if you were to opine on a trade between the two you'd see more sides taking Abdullah.

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4 minutes ago, -CE- said:

My guess is if you were to opine on a trade between the two you'd see more sides taking Abdullah.

People would have said the exact same thing heading into 2015.  How'd that work out?

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1 minute ago, -CE- said:

If it's a dynasty, which is what I expect we're all talking about, quite well right now I'd say?  

I thought you were talking redraft.  No one in the world is talking AA for Riddick straight up in dynasty.

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Just now, tangfoot said:

I thought you were talking redraft.  No one in the world is talking AA for Riddick straight up in dynasty.

Well, based on what has been said it sure seems like some people prefer Riddick to AA... including you?

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7 hours ago, -CE- said:

CoP or 3rd down back?  Because Riddick does the 3rd down thing, right?

I'd be taking Abdullah over Riddick.  My guess is if you were to opine on a trade between the two you'd see more sides taking Abdullah.

Nice strawman argument. Do you have to reach that badly to defend Abdullah? I guess that proves my point.

I don't care if Riddick has better value overall. The obvious problem to anyone being honest is that Abdullah is best suited to a Gio type role or Woodhead. And with Riddick being very effective in that role it really kills his value. It's a nightmare to own him in dynasties because he's not doing anything on the Lions as long as Riddick is there. And most people have zero interest in trading for him because this is not a big secret.

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8 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

Nice strawman argument. Do you have to reach that badly to defend Abdullah? I guess that proves my point.

I don't care if Riddick has better value overall. The obvious problem to anyone being honest is that Abdullah is best suited to a Gio type role or Woodhead. And with Riddick being very effective in that role it really kills his value. It's a nightmare to own him in dynasties because he's not doing anything on the Lions as long as Riddick is there. And most people have zero interest in trading for him because this is not a big secret.

Who says he is best suited for that type of role? Because of his size? How many times does size of the rb need to be discussed, ad nauseum?

He is good between the tackles. If you wanted to address his fumbling or his lack of breakaway speed, then you have a good argument. Riddick is truly a one trick pony. He is a very poor runner between the tackles. 

I would say at this point, Ameer has a chance to improve like any second year running back and could make Riddick take more of a back up role on third downs, etc. because Abdullah offers more versatility if he improves. 

I wouldn't Abdullah very high but I would be willing to take a chance on the guy. He can improve.. 

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It seems from the carry/touch distribution and lack of movement at the position in the off season* that Detroit views Abdullah as the more versatile back in Detroit's committee.  Realistically I don't see any back in that offense tallying more than 50-55% of the touches (translates to around 215-240 total touches give or take) but I see that guy as AA.  Riddick should hold onto the receiving back role because he is quite good in the passing game but he has proven to be very limited as a runner, whereas Abdullah actually looks pretty good receiving the ball which makes him more valuable to the offense overall.

*They are kicking the tires on Stevan Ridley today :yawn:.  Zach Zenner is also coming back from injury...also, :yawn:.

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12 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

Nice strawman argument. Do you have to reach that badly to defend Abdullah? I guess that proves my point.

I don't care if Riddick has better value overall. The obvious problem to anyone being honest is that Abdullah is best suited to a Gio type role or Woodhead. And with Riddick being very effective in that role it really kills his value. It's a nightmare to own him in dynasties because he's not doing anything on the Lions as long as Riddick is there. And most people have zero interest in trading for him because this is not a big secret.

Lol.  Sensitive much?  WTF are you even talking about?  You said "Abdullah would be best suited to a CoP role and Riddick is better at him than that."  I asked for clarification on whether you meant CoP or 3rd down role - because Riddick does the 3rd down role, correct?  I then went ahead and said that I think more people would take Abdullah than Riddick... do you know what a "strawman" (sic) argument is?  I suggest looking it up before you respond.

I really haven't seen enough of his NFL tape to know what type of role Abdullah would be best suited for but I know that when he was coming out of college I thought he had featured back capabilities.  I really don't care that he's around 200 lbs, which is likely what you base your entire argument on.  What I saw was a physical specimen who was skilled at using his blocks to pick up yardage, had excellent change of direction, could beat most defenders in a 1-on-1 situation with a wide variety of moves and had excellent receiving skills.  

Word has it that the Lions are looking to bring in Ridley now as a power back.  Ridley looked absolutely done last year, but maybe 2 years recovered from the surgery will right the ship for him.  If that's all the Lions do I would expect some good things from Abdullah.

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As I posted in the dynasty value thread ...

The bottom line on the Ameer discussion is the Detroit O-Line. If they get a good line he will be a RB1 option, with a couple elite games each year. This is because he is tough enough to run between the tackles, but his "game" is at the second level. If he can consistently get to the second level, then his agility and lateral quickness will allow him to be elusive. If they can get a good, not great, O-Line in DET; then Ameer will break off 15-20 yard runs with consistency every game. Add that to his ability to catch, and even with Riddick there, 12-18 touches per game will make him an easy low end RB1.  

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Ameer "the steer clear" Abdullah. Not buying that Detroit makes him the RB1. Although he was deemed a good between the tackles runner I saw him go down too often on minimal contact. I don't think he has enough power to be that guy. He is a good complimentary back but lacks the elite skills to be a long term foundational running back IMO.

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16 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Ameer "the steer clear" Abdullah. Not buying that Detroit makes him the RB1. Although he was deemed a good between the tackles runner I saw him go down too often on minimal contact. I don't think he has enough power to be that guy. He is a good complimentary back but lacks the elite skills to be a long term foundational running back IMO.

I was talking about him being a low end fantasy RB1, and not the workhorse back for Detroit. Not sure where that's coming from, for if he is getting 12-18 touches on a weekly basis that would mean he is in some type of committee. I don't think that suggests that he is some 20-35 touch workhorse. 

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32 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Ameer "the steer clear" Abdullah. Not buying that Detroit makes him the RB1. Although he was deemed a good between the tackles runner I saw him go down too often on minimal contact. I don't think he has enough power to be that guy. He is a good complimentary back but lacks the elite skills to be a long term foundational running back IMO.

Plus he fumbles more than Jeremy Hill - and that's very hard to do!

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47 minutes ago, Papa John's said:

I was talking about him being a low end fantasy RB1, and not the workhorse back for Detroit. Not sure where that's coming from, for if he is getting 12-18 touches on a weekly basis that would mean he is in some type of committee. I don't think that suggests that he is some 20-35 touch workhorse. 

I don't think his usage or effectiveness will be consistent enough to create a RB1 value even with PPR. Riddick is the better receiver of the group which limits him in that role. I am not saying that he is terrible however him finishing as a RB1 would be shocking to me.

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