hoffman0001
Footballguy
Yep for 1-2 games he tears it up till he gets hurt. You can have him for his current ADP.
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Official Ameer Abdullah - The Bandwagon (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Hey look, another uninformed person spreading misinformation! Shocker!
Once again... Abdullah has had one missed time injury through four years at Nebraska and two years in the NFL.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Let me know when:
A. He can make it 6 games in the NFL as a starter without getting hurt
B. When the lions get out of the bottom 4 in rushing
C. This stops being RBBC hell
Is he a great "wild card" for your bench? Sure. Is he ready to be a #2 RB which is where he is being valued...nope sorry.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
what he does those things .... its too late to get him at a great price
Chaka
Footballguy
According to PFR Abdullah started 9 games, and played in 16, in 2015. I am also pretty sure that the only reason Det was an "RBBC hell" last year is because Abdullah got hurt.hoffman0001 said:
Now, getting them out of the bottom four in rushing is a different issue. If Ameer stays healthy, something that can literally be said about every single player btw, then I am pretty confident they will rise out of the bottom four. If he gets hurt, then probably not.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Even when he "started" except for one game last year, it was a RBBC with multiple backs getting snaps. The Lions in general are missing an identity as a team. It goes to their coach. all I can say about him is blah....
I have him on several teams, but far too many people are relying om him as a starter..that's a mistake given his history and the teams performance on the ground.
Chaka
Footballguy
I don't disagree with the notion that he is an unknown and possibly overpriced but you are moving the goal posts a bit with that comment.
The thing is with a guy like Abdullah is that he passes the eyeball test in that he looks like he can be a three down guy. Now he is probably too small to get much short yardage work, which definitely works against him but he looks like he could be a yardage machine. Riddick will take away some passing opportunities but I think those will mostly be in obvious 3rd and long passing situations. Riddick is too limited as a runner and Abdullah can catch. Every single coach, at every single level of football would prefer a RB who can be a threat as a runner and a receiver because it opens up more of the playbook and makes the offense more difficult to predict. My point is that Abdullah is the only RB on the Det roster that fits that bill and as long as he remains healthy he absolutely has RB#2 potential.
Right now he is going as the #23 RB in PPR (#27 in non-PPR). CJ Anderson, Bilal Powell, Danny Woodhead, Doug Martin, Mike Gillislee, Paul Perkins and Eddie Lacy are immediately behind him. I might (might!) take a shot at Perkins, Martin, Gillislee or Lacy over Abdullah but I wouldn't fault anyone for taking Abdullah over them.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
These are the RBs that are currently going after Abdullah in PPR: CJ Anderson, Bilal Powell, Danny Woodhead, Doug Martin, Mike Gillislee, Paul Perkins and Eddie Lacy.
I could make arguments for and against everyone of those guys compared to Abdullah. He seems appropriately valued.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Well they were a RBBC with Abdullah healthy in 2015 (with Riddick and Bell getting work) and there's already talk of Riddick continuing as the third down back (a given), plus spelling Abdullah and Zenner getting GL and short yardage work. Sounds like another RBBC to me.
Chaka
Footballguy
I absolutely expect Abdullah to be hurt by both Riddick and Zenner. And I expect him to be limited by being on what looks to be a lesser team.
But I also expect Abdullah to be the clear #1 option on the Lions for everything between the 10s, at least.
Zenner is a big body and will take goal line rushes, but anything outside of the five I am not so sure ZZ will be the option.
Riddick will get his catches but I expect that to be in obvious passing situations (3rd and longs and late in blowout losses).
Abdullah is a better runner than ZZ and a capable receiver out of the backfield. He gives Det the most options in the game plan and makes it harder for defenses to key on specific plays.
Nothing about that makes me think that he is being overvalued at RB#23 in PPR. Look at the guys going after him, they all have big questions surrounding them too.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I like all of them except for Woodhead better for 2017. I actually have Woodhead projected slightly above Abdullah but would draft Abdullah first for the upside.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I just looked over my projections for redraft - I actually have Riddick finishing ahead of Abdullah in ppr.
Chaka
Footballguy
Can't the same be said about Gillislee, Martin, Woodhead, Anderson, Lacy etc.?
They all have threats to steal touches.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
There is a difference between stealing touches and losing GL work AND not being the most targeted RB in the passing game. Those are the most valuable touches.
Chaka
Footballguy
Concerns to be sure but, again, unlike Woodhead, Gillislee, Anderson & Lacy, Abdullah is his teams #1 back. ZZ and Riddick aren't pushing him for the starting job so Abdullah will get his. The same can't be said for those other guys, they could each be supplanted. Detroit doesn't have anyone to supplant AA.
I totally understand arguments in favor of some of those other guys, personally I would take Lacy, Perkins and probably Doug Martin over AA but I can't fault anyone for seeing it differently.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Almost every RB has threats to steal touches - it's the extent that's at issue. For Abdullah, we are taking away two HUGE aspects of what adds value in ppr leagues (receptions and TDs).
I already said I'd take Abdullah over Woodhead but Gillislee is the only RB on that list that I think will be in a RBBC and since he is very likely the GL back in New England I project him significantly higher than Abdullah. I'm sure some people think Marton, Anderson or Lacy have more risk of losing touches than Abdullah, I'm just not one of them. In fact I have Martin projected to outscore Abdullah even with him missing three games. I'm not a huge fan of Anderson but Booker missing time helps him and I think Charles is toast. I know it's probably not a popular opinion but I think Lacy is the feature back with Prosise only seeing some third down work.
I do not hate Abdullah. I actually think he has talent and upside - I just see what Detroit does on offense and there is nothing that has come out that leads me to believe that we are not once again looking at a three headed monster in Ford Field. I'd rather wait a few rounds and grab Riddick personally.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I averaged out what the Lions RBs have done the last 2 years. It comes out to: 301 rushes, 1100 rushing, 6 TDs. 112 receptions, 957 receiving 6 TDs.
Based on the last 2 seasons, when in the game, he's average a season pace of 82 receptions. Ameer's is 26. That is already 108 without accounting for ZZ or Washington. So Ameer is probably getting 250-300 yards in the air. Ameer has only had 2 carries inside the 5 in his career. There still isn't any evidence that he would be used in the capacity. So I see an almost best case scenario is Ameer gets 70% of the carries (770 rushing, 250 receiving) and 6 TDs. To me, that is a strong season and what the Lions likely plan for. It's only 8.5 ppg in standard and nothing more than a bye week guy.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
What makes you think Gillislee, Anderson and Lacy are not their teams' #1 back? What exactly have you been reading?
Chaka
Footballguy
Of the three I think only Anderson is considered to be the #1 RB right now and that might be just because of injury.
For Gillislee as much as I love the guy we must acknowledge that New England has a different mindset for how they use their RBs. Gillislee looked great in Buffalo and even better, on paper, in New England but he's not built like Blount, in fact he's built almost identical to Burkhead, so there is no guarantee that he will even be the short yardage guy.
For Anderson, the Booker injury helps his prospects tremendously in the early part of the season, but it's a new coaching staff, new offense and I am not entirely sold on his talent.
I personally am a big fan of Lacy and would roll the dice on him over Abdullah without thinking twice. Rawls was very impressive two years ago (last year, not so much) and may be able to eat into Lacy's opportunities. Prosise OTOH I am legitimately concerned about hurting Lacy's value. He's big, fast enough, catches very well and looked very good in his limited opportunities.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
In week 1 last year Riddick played on 37% of the snaps and was utilized 12 times. AA played on 62% and was utilized 17 times.
Also, in that same game, Washington (not Zenner) was utilized twice, in what I'm assuming were short yardage situations.
That is a RBBC, with AA clearly leading it, but a RBBC none the less.
I still love AA's talent but the 5th round ADP still seems steep. Then again, looking at all the RBs going around him, it seems that after RB15 or so the position is a complete and utter crapshoot.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Correct, Detroit got down to the 1 They gave Dwayne the ball twice on the 1. He scored on the 2nd run. Ameer also caught a 10 yard TD pass that game and Theo had a 21 yard TD run.
Chaka
Footballguy
Exactly. I am not so much pimping AA as trying to point out that he seems to be appropriately valued.
Also why do people still use draft round as a frame of reference instead of where a player is drafted among their position group. Fifth round in your draft provides me zero information because I know nothing about your league. But if you tell me that a player is the 23rd RB drafted, or even 18-24th RB drafted then I have context to apply to my league.
Sorry, SSND don't intend to single you out but it is something that I see every season, and comment on, and it makes zero sense to me.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Nah, it's all good man I'm using MFL, I haven't drafted yet. He's coming off the board as the RB20 there.
He needs to be drafted as the RB25+ to have a legitimate chance to return value in 12-teamers IMO. It might seem like I'm squabbling over something marginal but I just don't think he should be leaned on as a weekly RB2.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think general fantasy talk could widely be improved if people did this. Great point. I also think we need:
more emphasis on ppg over end of year totals
Be more careful without cutoffs for what makes a WR1 or where a TE3 finish is. Year to year, there is some variance on positional scoring. We usually just use the prior years numbers, but that is very susceptible to that variance and isn't a good way to conceptualize player rankings.
Tau837
Footballguy
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
Think he looked good tonight. Fast as hell
for sure. that game got a bit out of hands in the 1st half but he is my RB2 all day. Just going to have to deal with some vulturing of the TDs
Abdullah will end up in the top 15 scores in s PPR league. He will be utilized as as pass catcher more than people think and he will also see more goal line touches than people think. I really don't see this as a RBBC situation. Lions will not be a great running team, but Abdullah will see the bulk of the action in all types of situations.
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
The idea that Riddick hurts Abdullah's PPR floor is actually silly. From 2013-2015 RBs in this offense saw ~150 targets. Last year they saw a fair bit less, but that's because Abdullah pretty much missed the season and Riddick missed 6 games. They're not going to target Zenner/Washington like they would Riddick/Bush/Abdullah in the passing game, instead those targets went to Tate/Boldin.
What Riddick instead does is hurt Abdullah's PPR ceiling, which is technically massive. If Riddick sees 80 targets this year, Abdullah can still see 70. If Riddick is injured, Abdullah could see 100+.
However, I'm very iffy on the GL aspect. It's not just the fact that he'll likely lose work to Zenner but the fact that DET simply doesn't run it in the RZ often. They ran the ball 15 times in the RZ last year. That total is absurdly low and I'm sure that it'll regress to the mean but I'm just not banking on Abdullah's value coming from rushing TDs.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Detroit fans what's your take so far?
RB3? RB2?
Where's he going in drafts these days... (in terms of what RB# no so much round)
RB3? RB2?
Where's he going in drafts these days... (in terms of what RB# no so much round)
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Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Even a faithful Lions Homer for 50+ years cannot predict what Abdullah will or won't do? Big mystery and remains a guessing game. Low end #2 or high end #3 would be my take as of now.
greedygoat
Footballguy
I was able to grab him Saturday as the 25th RB OTB as my RB #3, 12-team standard scoring. Pretty happy, I've already received an offer for him.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
FBGs consensus ADP ranking has him at #62, RB24.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/adp.php?viewpos=all&sortby=consensus
In our redraft Sunday a.m., he went #56 (5.08), RB23 off the board.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Count me as someone who is a step or two over cautiously optimistic about Abdullah and has been surprised by the overall lack of excitement around him in his 3rd year.
1) The RB situation in DET contains no alpha. Abdullah was drafted to be that alpha in 2015 by the same administration that exists there today. So they still have skin in the game with him.
2) In his brief 2016 time on the field, he was a multi-dimensional stud. While Riddick is going to have a passing down role for the Lions, Abdullah's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield is a weapon for the Lions, not something to work around.
3) This ground game was atrocious in 2016. Abdullah only played 1.5 games in 2016, but based on his usage in that time, he would have logged 600+ snaps in a full season.
1) The RB situation in DET contains no alpha. Abdullah was drafted to be that alpha in 2015 by the same administration that exists there today. So they still have skin in the game with him.
2) In his brief 2016 time on the field, he was a multi-dimensional stud. While Riddick is going to have a passing down role for the Lions, Abdullah's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield is a weapon for the Lions, not something to work around.
3) This ground game was atrocious in 2016. Abdullah only played 1.5 games in 2016, but based on his usage in that time, he would have logged 600+ snaps in a full season.
shadyridr
Footballguy
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Another positive for Abdullah that I haven't seen mentioned a lot is that the Lions seem to actually throw to him in "5 wide" formations with Abdullah flexed wide outside. I've certainly seen teams line up in that formation and move their RB outside to force the defense to cover him, but I feel like the RB doesn't often actually get targeted on those throws. Abdullah does. I believe he scored a TD out of that formation in week 1 last season, and he got the Lions on track with their first first down of the game last week after the Lions offense had sputtered.
As good as Riddick is at catching the ball, Abdullah is also very, very good at it. The thing that impresses me the most about Abdullah as a receiver is that there's virtually no speed lost at the catch, he snags the ball and turns to run in a single fluid motion without a hitch that you often see from RBs.
Obviously I'm pretty hyped to see him finally healthy.
As good as Riddick is at catching the ball, Abdullah is also very, very good at it. The thing that impresses me the most about Abdullah as a receiver is that there's virtually no speed lost at the catch, he snags the ball and turns to run in a single fluid motion without a hitch that you often see from RBs.
Obviously I'm pretty hyped to see him finally healthy.
