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Official Ameer Abdullah - The Bandwagon (2 Viewers)

Really wanted to grab AA in my league and was fortunate to get him in our 3rd round.   

Being a pretty agressive keeper league, I thought this was a win.   I had him last hear coming out of the draft and was forced to drop him for a waiver pick up.  No one claimed him and he was available again this year.

As of today, he will be my RB3 behind Freeman and Miller and I am pretty okay with that  :banned:

 
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FF Ninja said:
Eh, I'm not high on any of those 3. I'd say there's a decent shot he's actually your RB1.
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Ha, for sure, that's crossed my mind but that's the order I had to draft them. We added a second flex spot in this so I could start all four some weeks. 

 
So obviously AA owners we're hoping for more despite a tough match-up last week. The truth is he didn't have much room to run but I'd still expect more than 2ypc from him. 

The good news is that he had 15 carries and 4 targets which is the most he's ever been utilized in a game in his career. I know DET was dealing with some positive game script but if this is at all indicative of what we can expect moving forward I have to imagine there are much better days ahead for him. 

 
BassNBrew said:
:lmao:
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Hey now, that was before the Ware injury! But CMC is definitely splitting reps with Stewart just like I expected, so I still am not high on him for redraft. As for Cook, I'm not going to let one game change my opinion but it's clear the organization is high on him. Part of what scared me off of Cook was that offense, but Bradford had the best game of his life last night. We'll see if he keeps it up. I hope so since he's my QB3 in the subscriber contest. But I still like the Lions offense better than Minnesota, which is why I still like Abdullah more than Cook.

 
FF Ninja said:
Hey now, that was before the Ware injury! But CMC is definitely splitting reps with Stewart just like I expected, so I still am not high on him for redraft. As for Cook, I'm not going to let one game change my opinion but it's clear the organization is high on him. Part of what scared me off of Cook was that offense, but Bradford had the best game of his life last night. We'll see if he keeps it up. I hope so since he's my QB3 in the subscriber contest. But I still like the Lions offense better than Minnesota, which is why I still like Abdullah more than Cook.
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As an Abdullah owner, I would trade him away for Cook as fast as I could click the Make Trade button. 

 
SameSongNDance said:
So obviously AA owners we're hoping for more despite a tough match-up last week. The truth is he didn't have much room to run but I'd still expect more than 2ypc from him. 

The good news is that he had 15 carries and 4 targets which is the most he's ever been utilized in a game in his career. I know DET was dealing with some positive game script but if this is at all indicative of what we can expect moving forward I have to imagine there are much better days ahead for him. 
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I saw in the Marvin Jones thread that someone posted snap counts. Abdullah out snapped Riddick 36 to 21. This was expected, but always good to get confirmation of expectations. I was still hoping for more than 51% of the snaps (Stafford played 71). 

Good point about the 19 touches being a career high. Hadn't noticed that. Looks like he's had 18 several times but not 19.

 
DocHolliday said:
As an Abdullah owner, I would trade him away for Cook as fast as I could click the Make Trade button. 
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If I had Cook, I'd be selling high. I'm not sure how often the Vikings will be milking a lead in the 4th quarter (he had 79 yards in that quarter, including 33 on his last carry). 

 
FF Ninja said:
If I had Cook, I'd be selling high. I'm not sure how often the Vikings will be milking a lead in the 4th quarter (he had 79 yards in that quarter, including 33 on his last carry). 
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He had 22 carries to Murray's 2.  He also had 3 receptions.  The workload is there.  And, he looked good in his first NFL game.  I know the Saints D is weak and Bradford is not going to have this much success in most weeks but the arrow is pointing up for Cook. 

 
FF Ninja said:
If I had Cook, I'd be selling high. I'm not sure how often the Vikings will be milking a lead in the 4th quarter (he had 79 yards in that quarter, including 33 on his last carry). 
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Look at the Viking's schedule:

1/4 of their games are vs the Packers and Lions... good offenses and stout defenses. 
1/4 of their games are vs the NFC South. NO is the armpit of that division but the other 3 are playoff worthy teams
3 of their games are vs TB, CIN, WAS... again, playoff teams

So when we look at their schedule, this is how many playoff to playoff-worthy teams they play: 10

I like Cook, but he does have a tough schedule... 

 
DocHolliday said:
He had 22 carries to Murray's 2.  He also had 3 receptions.  The workload is there.  And, he looked good in his first NFL game.  I know the Saints D is weak and Bradford is not going to have this much success in most weeks but the arrow is pointing up for Cook. 
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Yeah, I realize this (first bolded part) and you're making my point with the second part yet disagreeing. His team was leading almost the entire game while playing against a weak defense. I don't think that happens very often. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this is his high water mark for the year in terms of rushing yardage... so I'd say when we look back at this game, we might say this was the peak and therefore the arrow was pointing down.

Then again, if Bradford continues to play like that things will be very rosy for anybody in that backfield (even the pedestrian Murray if Cook were to miss time). Bradford looked legit last night. He was showing some nice touch and pinpoint accuracy. If Bradford can keep defenses honest like that and keep his team in the lead, then yes, the arrow will be pointing up for Cook. So I'd say Cook's fate hinges on Bradford and that's not a gamble I'd be excited about taking even though I can see a scenario where it pays off.

 
Dr. Dan said:
1/4 of their games are vs the NFC South. NO is the armpit of that division but the other 3 are playoff worthy teams
3 of their games are vs TB, CIN, WAS... again, playoff teams

So when we look at their schedule, this is how many playoff to playoff-worthy teams they play: 10
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You mentioned TB twice, and I would call CIN and WAS anything but a playoff-worthy team.

 
FF Ninja said:
Yeah, I realize this (first bolded part) and you're making my point with the second part yet disagreeing. His team was leading almost the entire game while playing against a weak defense. I don't think that happens very often. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if this is his high water mark for the year in terms of rushing yardage... so I'd say when we look back at this game, we might say this was the peak and therefore the arrow was pointing down.

Then again, if Bradford continues to play like that things will be very rosy for anybody in that backfield (even the pedestrian Murray if Cook were to miss time). Bradford looked legit last night. He was showing some nice touch and pinpoint accuracy. If Bradford can keep defenses honest like that and keep his team in the lead, then yes, the arrow will be pointing up for Cook. So I'd say Cook's fate hinges on Bradford and that's not a gamble I'd be excited about taking even though I can see a scenario where it pays off.
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I agree that Cook might not see a better matchup this year.........but I still would trade Abdullah for Cook in a flash.

 
tangfoot said:
You mentioned TB twice, and I would call CIN and WAS anything but a playoff-worthy team.
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True on both accounts... I have CIN at 10-6 making the playoffs in my predictions, but that's not true for all. Washington made the playoffs last year so I counted them as a playoff team... that's all. I agree they are likely not making it this year. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
True on both accounts... I have CIN at 10-6 making the playoffs in my predictions, but that's not true for all. Washington made the playoffs last year so I counted them as a playoff team... that's all. I agree they are likely not making it this year. 
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WRONG

 
Dr. Dan said:
True on both accounts... I have CIN at 10-6 making the playoffs in my predictions, but that's not true for all. Washington made the playoffs last year so I counted them as a playoff team... that's all. I agree they are likely not making it this year. 
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WRONG

 
tangfoot said:
WRONG
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huh... I thought they did. Must be thinking 2 years ago when they played GB... I feel like they played GB last year but that was NYG... Much different team I guess. They looked awful this week, but they always seem to but somehow that division ends up with 2 wild card contenders. 


EDIT: I suppose I'll edit my assessment on my initial post above... 8 playoff teams really isn't that bad (especially if 4 of those games are in your own division) so really their schedule isn't as bad as I originally thought. It's not much different than Abdullah's (I consider MIN a potential playoff team... I actually think they will contend with GB for the division, although GB looks unstoppable after 1 week so maybe a wild card, if GB's D is for real)

 
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As an owner of Cook & Hunt, I wouldn't trade either for AA. 

I was high on AA a couple seasons ago, but a couple things are clear: 

1. Lions prefer a RBBC. They will probably never make AA a feature back. 

2. Riddick is a much better receiver, and it's not close. 

3. AA isn't a particularly adept short yardage runner. And he Lions aren't particularly good at run blocking in that situation either. 

McCaffery is also in a timeshare, and now they're talking about reducing his touches/limiting his workload.  

So of the 3, CMC might be the most apt comparison. 

Regardless of what people chose to see last night, the Saints run D looked decent until they wore down.  And we all saw Cook get a feature back's workload. Sure, it'll be tougher sledding against tougher defenses on MIN's schedule, but Cook is also going to get better. He should have had 5-7 receptions but had a bit of he yips early on. He was a much more fluid receiver in the preseason. 

As for Hunt, that's just not even close to close. The Chiefs seemingly have an easier schedule except 2 games against Denver, and they're a team that can run-block with the best of them. And Hunt looks as natural as a receiver as any RB in the NFL.

AA is a nice player - I think given the opportunity he could be a stud. But DET disagrees, so he's always gonna be a RBBC guy. And not the valuable kind where get gets receptions or GL carries. He's more the "better hope he takes one to the house from 30 yards out" because otherwise he's unlikely to score. 

 
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If he gets 15 carries every week then he's going to be pretty useful this season. He won't average 2 YPC every game.

 
EBF said:
If he gets 15 carries every week then he's going to be pretty useful this season. He won't average 2 YPC every game.
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Workload has been one of the most frustrating things about AA.  

While true he won't average 2 YPC every week, the question is more about situational running. He also may not get 15 carries a week.

And 15 carries between the 20s with very few receptions isn't really all that useful. 

All carries aren't equal. No GL, few if any receptions. Maybe ok as a non-PLR flex play? 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Workload has been one of the most frustrating things about AA.  

While true he won't average 2 YPC every week, the question is more about situational running.  15 carries between the 20s with very few receptions isn't really all that useful. 

All carries aren't equal. No GL, few if any receptions. Maybe ok as a a non-PLR flex play? 
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Did anyone expect top 10 numbers? I got him as the 22nd RB in my redraft PPR league. That seems good to me and I think if he gets ~240 carries with ~50 targets then he can finish top 20. His biggest problem is Riddick stealing a lot of the catches that should be going to him. Still, he outcarried Riddick 15-to-1 and had 4 targets in his own right. If that usage holds steady then he's going to have enough good games to be viable as your RB2-RB3, which is what he should be based on ADP.

 
EBF said:
Did anyone expect top 10 numbers?
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Apparently the people above suggesting he could be traded for Hunt or Cook. 

I got him as the 22nd RB in my redraft PPR league. That seems good to me and I think if he gets ~240 carries with ~50 targets then he can finish top 20. His biggest problem is Riddick stealing a lot of the catches that should be going to him. Still, he outcarried Riddick 15-to-1 and had 4 targets in his own right. If that usage holds steady then he's going to have enough good games to be viable as your RB2-RB3, which is what he should be based on ADP.
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He's unlikely to get 50 targets so long as Riddick is healthy. And if Riddick isn't the Lions will probably bring in another receiving back. 

I see little chance of RB2 numbers. RB3 is a maybe. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Apparently the people above suggesting he could be traded for Hunt or Cook. 

He's unlikely to get 50 targets so long as Riddick is healthy. And if Riddick isn't the Lions will probably bring in another receiving back. 

I see little chance of RB2 numbers. RB3 is a maybe. 
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I drafted him as my RB2 and unfortunately, I agree that is probably going to be a RB3. 

 
DocHolliday said:
I drafted him as my RB2 and unfortunately, I agree that is probably going to be a RB3. 
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A couple years ago I was not only on the AA bandwagon, I was driving it.

his usage just never materialized. There are some teams that used to have a feature back (cough, barry sanders) and forever forward the FFB community is looking for "the next great DET RB" to carry the mail. 

Much in the way Hunt became so buzz-worthy following the footsteps of Priest/LJ  or Cook following AP.

Unfortunately those make poor comparisons because DET has shown zero commitment to having a lead RB over the years. It looked promising with Javhid Best for a spell there, but that was pretty short-lived. 

 
I think people waiving the white flag on Abdullah a bit too soon.

1) I think it's possible for a team to have two good receiving options out of the backfield.  Just because Riddick may be the better one doesn't mean he's the only one.  Plus, it's not like DET is teeming with a great receiving options.

2)  18 touches is a very solid workload in 2017 for an RB1.  Everyone is excited about Cook (I am too), but a) he played a lightly regarded defense in NO vs Abdullah who played a Top 5-10 unit and b) Cook was rather pedestrian production wise until the 4th quarter when he ripped off 65 yards in two runs against a gassed defense.

 
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TheDirtyWord said:
I think people waiving the white flag on Abdullah a bit too soon.
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Many waived it after his poor rookie season & realizing the Lions commitment to RBBC. 

1) I think it's possible for a team to have two good receiving options out of the backfield.  Just because Riddick may be the better one doesn't mean he's the only on.  Plus, it's not like DET is teeming with a great receiving corps.
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Yes, it's possible. But the Lions prefer Riddick. Hell, the Lions preferred Joique Bell over Abdullah too.

and I dunno - Tate & the 6'4"'rookie who caught 2 TDs, plus the always underrated Marvin Jones seems pretty solid at WR. 

2)  18 touches is a very solid workload in 2017 for an RB1. 
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No guarantee he gets that in every game though - especially running at a 2 YPC clip. They turned to Washington in the RZ, which is of even greater concern. 

Everyone is excited about Cook (I am too), but a) he played a lightly regarded defense in NO vs Abdullah who played a Top 5-10 unit and b) Cook was rather pedestrian production wise until the 4th quarter when he ripped off 65 yards in two runs against a gassed defense.
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People are excited for Cook for good reason: he's everything that AA is not. A 3-down back, who played 80%+ of his team's snaps, and was heavily targeted as a receiver and was given carries in the RZ. Part of why the Saints D was gassed was because Cook pounded them all night. 

There's simply no comparing that to a player who's used almost exclusively between the 20s, and not on 3rd downs. 

I see very little to be excited about with AA & the way the Lions choose to employ him unless both Washington & Riddick get hurt. And I wouldn't be surprised to see another back get brought in or signed off the practice squad to share carries in that scenario. I don't think he Lions have any desire to use AA as a "feature back". 

 
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32 Counter Pass said:
Agree. When you factor in the matchup it isn't surprising he disappointed this week. My biggest concern isn't Riddick. Rather it is D. Washington stealing goal line touches. 
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Bingo. It's the combination that's brutal. 

I can see owning 1/2 of a committed in FFB. Hell, I've got Riddick in my PPR league (15 point flex play this week).

but I cannot see owning a guy who only gets carries between the 20s and doesn't get receptions. 

To be really useful in FFB the dude has to catch the ball or score TDs. Abdullah does neither. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Apparently the people above suggesting he could be traded for Hunt or Cook. 

He's unlikely to get 50 targets so long as Riddick is healthy. And if Riddick isn't the Lions will probably bring in another receiving back. 

I see little chance of RB2 numbers. RB3 is a maybe. 
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I don't see why 50 targets is out of the question, even with a healthy Riddick. This team chucks it lot and a good portion of those passes go to the running back. Playing the one game trajectory card, Ameer is already on pace for 64 targets. He has potential with the ball in his hands that no other RB on the roster has; the Lions have the smarts enough to continue to give him the ball. Even in a tough match up he was pretty close to busting a few. 

 
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cloppbeast said:
I don't see why 50 targets is out of the question, even with healthy Riddick. This team chucks it lot and a good portion of those passes go to the running back. Playing the one game trajectory card, Ameer is already on pace for 64 targets.
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Sure, I concede this possibility. He could get 50 targets. His rookie season he had 25 receptions on 38 targets.  So yeah, it's possible. 

He has potential with the ball in his hands that no other RB on the roster has; the Lions have the smarts enough to continue to give him the ball. Even in a tough match up he was pretty close to busting a few. 
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That's been the upside argument that every FFB manager has used to talk themselves into starting him since 2015. 

I was among them in 2015. It just never materialized. "He could break one at any time!" "Didja see the 60+ yard TD He busted preseason?" :excited:  

Dude had 2 TDs in 2015. :yawn:  

I'm certain he's going to blow up one of these games - break a couple of long TDs to the house.  Good luck having him in your lineup when that happens, and more importantly, good luck winning games when he's giving you 6-10 points at Flex instead. PPR I'd rather start a WR for a higher weekly floor. 

If he only got some GL carries it'd be a heck of a lot easier to make a case for AA as a fantasy asset. 

Each to their own. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Many waived it after his poor rookie season & realizing the Lions commitment to RBBC. 

Yes, it's possible. But the Lions prefer Riddick. Hell, the Lions preferred Joique Bell over Abdullah too.

and I dunno - Tate & the 6'4"'rookie who caught 2 TDs, plus the always underrated Marvin Jones seems pretty solid at WR. 

No guarantee he gets that in every game though - especially running at a 2 YPC clip. They turned to Washington in the RZ, which is of even greater concern. 

People are excited for Cook for good reason: he's everything that AA is not. A 3-down back, who played 80%+ of his team's snaps, and was heavily targeted as a receiver and was given carries in the RZ. Part of why the Saints D was gassed was because Cook pounded them all night. 

There's simply no comparing that to a player who's used almost exclusively between the 20s, and not on 3rd downs. 

I see very little to be excited about with AA & the way the Lions choose to employ him unless both Washington & Riddick get hurt. And I wouldn't be surprised to see another back get brought in or signed off the practice squad to share carries in that scenario. I don't think he Lions have any desire to use AA as a "feature back". 
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If after his poor rookie season, the Lions were so committed to RBBC, why has Abdullah secured 41 touches in 9.5 quarters since then?  I mean, he had 3 receptions Sunday...he's not Michael Turner.  My understanding is that his poor rookie season was more attributable to his penchant for fumbling.

If the Lions have better WR's than I give them credit for - good, can't focus on Abdullah as much.  Bottomline is that Abdullah has shown proficiency catching the ball out of the backfield in his brief career, so he can put up production that way.  Yes, Theo Riddick is going to have a role but I suspect the Lions simply have identified Abdullah to be a player they want on the field 50-60% of the time, much like the Falcons have with Devonta Freeman.

Is he going to be a hoss by the goalline...likely not so you have to temper your expectations with him there to be sure.  But on the opposite end of the spectrum, he's not going to be fighting for carries with a WW pick-up.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Sure, I concede this possibility. He could get 50 targets. His rookie season he had 25 receptions on 38 targets.  So yeah, it's possible. 

That's been the upside argument that every FFB manager has used to talk themselves into starting him since 2015. 

I was among them in 2015. It just never materialized. "He could break one at any time!" "Didja see the 60+ yard TD He busted preseason?" :excited:  

Dude had 2 TDs in 2015. :yawn:  

I'm certain he's going to blow up one of these games - break a couple of long TDs to the house.  Good luck having him in your lineup when that happens, and more importantly, good luck winning games when he's giving you 6-10 points at Flex instead. PPR I'd rather start a WR for a higher weekly floor. 

If he only got some GL carries it'd be a heck of a lot easier to make a case for AA as a fantasy asset. 

Each to their own. 
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Hey you sound like I do on a different player ;)

I agree, the counter argument for Abdullah is always "that one play he looked like a top 5 RB." I think most RBs have "that one play" that makes them look incredible.

I liked Abdullah a lot coming out of college, and I still like him now because I think he has that potential to be a very good RB. I've been on the negative side of him saying he can't be a 3 down back, but I also see there's equal reasoning that he can be. At one point in the middle of the 4th quarter he had 2 less targets to Riddick... which I think is saying a lot. If he can get 4-5 targets a game that's huge. He may lose goal line carries, which hurts him as a potential RB1. So I think his ceiling is RB2

Anyone drafting Abdullah as their Rb2 is probably hurting a bit, because he's not going to cut it most weeks unless something changes in detroit. And something could change, I very well think it will. But Rb3/4 I think people can do a lot worse. Everything is there for him to be "that RB" that surprises for 2017, but I think the one thing stopping him is the play calling and personnel package decisions 

 
TheDirtyWord said:
If after his poor rookie season, the Lions were so committed to RBBC, why has Abdullah secured 41 touches in 9.5 quarters since then?  I mean, he had 3 receptions Sunday...he's not Michael Turner.  My understanding is that his poor rookie season was more attributable to his penchant for fumbling.

If the Lions have better WR's than I give them credit for - good, can't focus on Abdullah as much.  Bottomline is that Abdullah has shown proficiency catching the ball out of the backfield in his brief career, so he can put up production that way.  Yes, Theo Riddick is going to have a role but I suspect the Lions simply have identified Abdullah to be a player they want on the field 50-60% of the time, much like the Falcons have with Devonta Freeman.

Is he going to be a hoss by the goalline...likely not so you have to temper your expectations with him there to be sure.  But on the opposite end of the spectrum, he's not going to be fighting for carries with a WW pick-up.
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You're saying about the same as I am, but viewing it as a glass half full. 

He's a RBBC guy who gets snaps between the 20s (of which there are more) and replaced in most receiving downs and in the RZ. 

He is what he is. 

It's a shame, as I still believe he could be much, much more. 

Unfortunatelt for the FFB world, unless Jimbob Cooter feels that way, AA is a RB3-4 for fantasy purposes. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
And something could change, I very well think it will. But Rb3/4 I think people can do a lot worse. Everything is there for him to be "that RB" that surprises for 2017, but I think the one thing stopping him is the play calling and personnel package decisions 
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Many here at FBG have argued that he change may well be to Washington as a feature back. 

Not sure I agree, but he looks built for the role. 

For now I'd expect more of the same with AA. Not 2 YPC, that will come up. 

But PPG will be depressed by usage/roles.

It's not like owning Blount/Gilisee where you know you've got a multi-TD upside every game (with a 4-7 point floor). Nor is it like owning Sproles or Woodhead (when healthy) who have the track record of success & can rack up the receptions for a higher PPR floor.  

It's tough to watch - I would absolutely love to see what AA could do with 20+ carries & 4-7 receptions a week . Give him a Cook workload and he's probably a top 10 RB. 

Or maybe the Lions are worried about health if they do that. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Many here at FBG have argued that he change may well be to Washington as a feature back. 

Not sure I agree, but he looks built for the role. 

For now I'd expect more of the same with AA. Not 2 YPC, that will come up. 

But PPG will be depressed by usage/roles.

It's not like owning Blount/Gilisee where you know you've got a multi-TD upside every game (with a 4-7 point floor). Nor is it like owning Sproles or Woodhead (when healthy) who have the track record of success & can rack up the receptions for a higher PPR floor.  

It's tough to watch - I would absolutely love to see what AA could do with 20+ carries & 4-7 receptions a week . Give him a Cook workload and he's probably a top 10 RB. 

Or maybe the Lions are worried about health if they do that. 
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Yeah I see your point; you can't count on TDs or a large volume of receptions, so you're kind of stuck for his long runs. I drafted him with the potential that he could be a 3 down back and still get meaningful receptions. Losing goal line carries doesn't concern me too much but it probably should. I guess my expectations are just realistic. He has potential to be a very top end back but he's held back. Maybe he moves on after this year and becomes a featured back elsewhere. He could be that "what if" kind of back as well. It is frustrating as an owner. 

I don't expect 20 points. I hope for 13. I think as Detroit uses him as the season goes on, the offense will focus more on their biggest play maker, which IMO is Abdullah. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
A couple years ago I was not only on the AA bandwagon, I was driving it.
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This explains a lot. Your posts reek of someone who overpaid for a rookie and then forever hates them for not saving their squad that year. I've maintained a constant "cautiously optimistic" approach to Abdullah. That means I wasn't able to overcome the hype to land him as a rookie so I'm not yet a scorned owner. I got him relatively cheaply this year (usually at an auction price in the RB20-30 range) so I'm not going to be mad if he isn't a top 10 back. Half of these leagues are best ball, so I don't even have to worry about catching his big weeks. I can just sit back and let the law of averages do its thing.

Only a jaded owner would go around throwing silly statements out like "2. Riddick is a much better receiver, and it's not close." Riddick is a fine receiver, but is he better than Abdullah? Not really. He's just not very good at anything else, so if you're going to split duties up, might as well use him in that phase of the game. I have no doubt that if the Lions had Adrian Peterson and Abdullah on the team that they'd have AA in the Riddick role - because he's very capable there. But AA is a true threat in both facets of the game unlike anybody else on their roster, so they use him on the early downs to keep their options open.

Your jaded-ness shows when you say things like he'll never get 50 targets in a season when he just got 4 targets in the first game. Not a ton of targets, but like someone already pointed out, 4 targets/game x 16 games = 64. You're not thinking rationally about Abdullah. You got burned and can't turn down your hate. Most people here got him as a late RB2 or as their RB3. If his usage is roughly what it was in the season opener (admittedly, 1 game is not a good sample size) I think we will get a very fair, if not good return on our investment. Keep in mind, he got 15 carries and 4 targets in this season opener and 12 carries, 5 targets in the previous season opener. I still think 200 carries and 50 rec is realistic. But maybe it'll be 220 and 40. Either would be fine for his price.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
He's unlikely to get 50 targets so long as Riddick is healthy. And if Riddick isn't the Lions will probably bring in another receiving back. 

I see little chance of RB2 numbers. RB3 is a maybe. 
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I can't honestly tell if you're trolling with some of this. Ameer is a really good receiver. Bad receiving backs don't get split out wide and targeted like this:

https://youtu.be/JcmFcDgITy0?t=32s

Way too early to talk about long-term usage patterns when Ameer was a rookie in 2015 and had a season-ending injury in week 2 of 2016. He hasn't played that much in the NFL yet. The fact that he got 15 carries to Riddick's 1 and Washington's 6 in week 1 can be seen as a good sign for the future.

From a redraft standpoint, he was drafted as a very low end RB2 or high end RB3. I think he has a good chance to meet those expectations. A top 20 finish at RB is easier than people think. It doesn't require dominant performances every week. A big game here and there over a 16 game season will do it. I think Ameer will be like Warrick Dunn this season. Solid rushing numbers padded with enough receptions to make him useful. Not a top 10 guy, but that's not what he was drafted to be.

From a dynasty standpoint, his potential is capped as long as they keep giving Riddick targets, but he's only 23 with two years left on his rookie contract. A lot can change situationally, which is why I rate him higher in dynasty than redraft.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
He's unlikely to get 50 targets so long as Riddick is healthy. And if Riddick isn't the Lions will probably bring in another receiving back.
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He's very likely to get 50 targets. Riddick can get 100 targets and AA can still get 50 targets. AA is in fact very likely to see more than 50 targets. Look at how often DET has targeted RBs since Caldwell took over.

If AA had averaged his career average ypc against ARI, all everyone would be talking about is how he was utilized near 20 times last week and his arrow is pointing up. Because he got stuffed, the sky is falling.

He was tied with Crowell and Miller as the 9th most utilized RB last week. And again, it was the most he's ever been utilized in a game. 

 
FF Ninja said:
This explains a lot. Your posts reek of someone who overpaid for a rookie and then forever hates them for not saving their squad that year. I've maintained a constant "cautiously optimistic" approach to Abdullah. That means I wasn't able to overcome the hype to land him as a rookie so I'm not yet a scorned owner. I got him relatively cheaply this year (usually at an auction price in the RB20-30 range) so I'm not going to be mad if he isn't a top 10 back. Half of these leagues are best ball, so I don't even have to worry about catching his big weeks. I can just sit back and let the law of averages do its thing.
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no, they reek of realism. I'm not jaded in the slightest. His rookie year he was my RB3 in a single league and I think I paid a 5th or 6th rounder for him.

the irony is that you sound like a current owner, brimming with optimism to the point that you ignore usage and production. You see him as 1 touch away from breaking one to the house every single play. Or "man if only they used him right he'd be a stud!"

so you spend your weeks hoping for a Washington or Riddick injury, cursing the lions for your sucky FFB team instead of blaming yourself for counting on a weak fantasy asset as your RB2 due to your man-love for a sub-par RB. 

Only a jaded owner would go around throwing silly statements out like "2. Riddick is a much better receiver, and it's not close." Riddick is a fine receiver, but is he better than Abdullah? Not really. He's just not very good at anything else, so if you're going to split duties up, might as well use him in that phase of the game. I have no doubt that if the Lions had Adrian Peterson and Abdullah on the team that they'd have AA in the Riddick role - because he's very capable there. But AA is a true threat in both facets of the game unlike anybody else on their roster, so they use him on the early downs to keep their options open.
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That's your opinion. Mine is based on usage. I'm unemotional about it - the Lions use Riddick in a specific & obvious manner. Could Abdullah be a better receiver?  Maybe, sure. But the Lions don't think so, which seeems to heavily trump your opinion. 

Your jaded-ness shows when you say things like he'll never get 50 targets in a season when he just got 4 targets in the first game. Not a ton of targets, but like someone already pointed out, 4 targets/game x 16 games = 64. You're not thinking rationally about Abdullah. You got burned and can't turn down your hate. Most people here got him as a late RB2 or as their RB3. If his usage is roughly what it was in the season opener (admittedly, 1 game is not a good sample size) I think we will get a very fair, if not good return on our investment. Keep in mind, he got 15 carries and 4 targets in this season opener and 12 carries, 5 targets in the previous season opener. I still think 200 carries and 50 rec is realistic. But maybe it'll be 220 and 40. Either would be fine for his price.
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Again - not jaded in the slightest. That's the weakest discussion means I've ever seen. I voluntarily disclosed that I was once high on the guy, and explained in detail why I no longer am. 

So asserting/projecting my motives and suggested psychoanalysis of my alleged deep-seated bitterness over once owning a player makes you look incapable of rational debate.

the irony is that you're so filled with man-love for Abdullah that it blinds you to the reality of his stuation.

but thanks for trying to tell me how jaded I am. :rolleyes:  

 
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EBF said:
I can't honestly tell if you're trolling with some of this.
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Not trolling in the slightest. Just posting observations. I'm not sure if he'll get used more or not as a receiver, nor am I sure of his upside.

i am sure that the Lions prefer Riddick. That's not trolling, it's observing. 

I understand that for those invested in AA it might come off as negative. For me it's neither a positive or a negative. It is what it is: an observation of usage.

And I've commented several times that IMO AA gets a raw deal. The talent is there and he's misused IMO. But people ignore the positives I say and focus on the negatives because they're invested in the player. I get it.

Ameer is a really good receiver. Bad receiving backs don't get split out wide and targeted like this:

https://youtu.be/JcmFcDgITy0?t=32s

Way too early to talk about long-term usage patterns when Ameer was a rookie in 2015 and had a season-ending injury in week 2 of 2016. He hasn't played that much in the NFL yet. The fact that he got 15 carries to Riddick's 1 and Washington's 6 in week 1 can be seen as a good sign for the future.
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It's not about # of carries. Again: it's the type of carries.

if AA gets 15 carries between the 20s and Washington gets 6 carries in the RZ, who's more likely to produce FF points? 

From a redraft standpoint, he was drafted as a very low end RB2 or high end RB3. I think he has a good chance to meet those expectations. A top 20 finish at RB is easier than people think. It doesn't require dominant performances every week. A big game here and there over a 16 game season will do it. I think Ameer will be like Warrick Dunn this season. Solid rushing numbers padded with enough receptions to make him useful. Not a top 10 guy, but that's not what he was drafted to be.

From a dynasty standpoint, his potential is capped as long as they keep giving Riddick targets, but he's only 23 with two years left on his rookie contract. A lot can change situationally, which is why I rate him higher in dynasty than redraft.
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Sure, he could finish 20. That's possible. In PPR I don't think he will, but it's possible.

I'd still rather have a WR at my flex spot, or a TD specialist, or even Riddick. 

In PPR I think Riddick ends up with more, and more consistent FFB production. 

But again - it is possible that AA breaks a couple long TDs. The entire FFB world has been waiting to see that. I hope it happens. I like the kid. 

If it does, sell high. 

 
SameSongNDance said:
He's very likely to get 50 targets. Riddick can get 100 targets and AA can still get 50 targets. AA is in fact very likely to see more than 50 targets. Look at how often DET has targeted RBs since Caldwell took over.

If AA had averaged his career average ypc against ARI, all everyone would be talking about is how he was utilized near 20 times last week and his arrow is pointing up. Because he got stuffed, the sky is falling.

He was tied with Crowell and Miller as the 9th most utilized RB last week. And again, it was the most he's ever been utilized in a game. 
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I don't think the sky is falling. I just think it's staying right where it was. 

Some see his usage as meaning the sky is the limit.

i disagree as long as he's underutilized in the passing game and the RZ.

maybe next week I'll have a different opinion - maybe he'll get a short yardage carry & convert and the Lions will use him more like that. Or maybe they'll throw him a screen he takes 50 yards to the house & the Lions will use him even more as a receiver.

as I suggested several times: I think the talent is there.

but he was used 50% of the snaps, and replaced as a receiver and in the RZ. 

I have no hate for AA. I just can't get behind him as a viable RB2 until I see the Lions commit to using him more and in more FFB beneficial situations. 

Is that fair? 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
no, they reek of realism. I'm not jaded in the slightest. His rookie year he was my RB3 in a single league and I think I paid a 5th or 6th rounder for him.

the irony is that you sound like a current owner, brimming with optimism to the point that you ignore usage and production. You see him as 1 touch away from breaking one to the house every single play. Or "man if only they used him right he'd be a stud!"

so you soend your weeks hoping for a Washington or Riddick injury, cursing the lions for your sucky FFB team istead of blaming yourself for counting on a weak fantasy asset as you're RB2 due to your woman-love for a sub-par RB. 

That's your opinion. Mine is based on usage. I'm unemotional about it - the Lions use Riddick in a specific & obvious manner. Could Abdullah be a better receiver?  Maybe, sure. But the Lions don't think so, which seeems to heavily trump your opinion. 

Again - not jaded in the slightest. That's the weakest discussion means I've ever seen. I voluntarily disclosed that I was once high on the guy, and explained in detail why I no longer am. 

So asserting/projecting my motives and suggested psychoanalysis of my alleged deep-seated bitterness over once owning a player makes you look incapable of rational debate.

the irony is that you're so filled with man-love for Abdullah that it blinds you to the reality of his stuation.

but thanks for trying to tell me how jaded I am. :rolleyes:  
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That's a lot of nonsense mangled together into a post. Not sure where to begin... I mean, I already called you out for saying a guy who just got 4 targets has no chance of 50 targets in a season. That alone is just...  :crazy:  - to put it nicely. What it isn't is "realism". 

And no, I'm not brimming with optimism because I'm a current owner. I did my research and analysis before my draft and determined that Abdullah would be a good value. I'm not here to tell you that he's a lock to be a top 10 back. I'm merely saying his current usage - if he maintains this pace - will make him a value. Nothing more, nothing less. Not sure how you get "brimming with optimism" out of that, but your jaded eyes must be seeing words that I'm not typing. 

As for Abdullah being a better receiver - again, something I didn't say. I just said he's similar to Riddick. And you said the Lions don't think so... well, I tried to dumb down my explanation as much as possible. Let me try it this way. Player A is good at running and good at receiving. Player B is not a good runner but is a good receiver. If you're going to split them up, it makes sense for player A to be on early downs and player B to be on passing downs. That does not actually mean you think Player A isn't good at receiving. Get it? (Hint: Player A is Abdullah, Player B is Riddick)

You're welcome for pointing out your bias. I'm sorry you still aren't able to see it. He burned you once, go ahead and hate on him forever. I'll keep scooping him up on the cheap while you draft lesser players ahead of him. Pretty funny that you claimed "A couple years ago I was not only on the AA bandwagon, I was driving it" yet you only landed him in a single league in the 5th or 6th round as your RB3. These two statements are not mutually exclusive, but... c'mon... one of them is very likely to be a lie.

 
FF Ninja said:
That's a lot of nonsense mangled together into a post. Not sure where to begin... I mean, I already called you out for saying a guy who just got 4 targets has no chance of 50 targets in a season. That alone is just...  :crazy:  - to put it nicely. What it isn't is "realism". 

And no, I'm not brimming with optimism because I'm a current owner. I did my research and analysis before my draft and determined that Abdullah would be a good value. I'm not here to tell you that he's a lock to be a top 10 back. I'm merely saying his current usage - if he maintains this pace - will make him a value. Nothing more, nothing less. Not sure how you get "brimming with optimism" out of that, but your jaded eyes must be seeing words that I'm not typing. 

As for Abdullah being a better receiver - again, something I didn't say. I just said he's similar to Riddick. And you said the Lions don't think so... well, I tried to dumb down my explanation as much as possible. Let me try it this way. Player A is good at running and good at receiving. Player B is not a good runner but is a good receiver. If you're going to split them up, it makes sense for player A to be on early downs and player B to be on passing downs. That does not actually mean you think Player A isn't good at receiving. Get it? (Hint: Player A is Abdullah, Player B is Riddick)

You're welcome for pointing out your bias. I'm sorry you still aren't able to see it. He burned you once, go ahead and hate on him forever. I'll keep scooping him up on the cheap while you draft lesser players ahead of him. Pretty funny that you claimed "A couple years ago I was not only on the AA bandwagon, I was driving it" yet you only landed him in a single league in the 5th or 6th round as your RB3. These two statements are not mutually exclusive, but... c'mon... one of them is very likely to be a lie.
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Have a nice day. 

 
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