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Official Ameer Abdullah - The Bandwagon


EBF

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23 minutes ago, Milkman said:

No offense to Faust but Ameer can shine all he wants in the preseason. He was just never that good. Arizona was devastated when they missed out on AA in the draft and they had to settle for some RB named David Johnson.

You mention that little factoid in every thread you can. We got it.

Abdullah is a lost hope for 2018 for sure, but let's break down his performances:

  • Rookie year: 4.2 ypc isn't much to write home about except it was significantly higher than his backfield peers, so this indicates poor blocking but good talent
  • 2nd year: looked sharp for 1.5 games but suffered lisfranc
  • 3rd year: halfway through the season he was top 5 in yards after contact, but had a low ypc... people who never liked him will ignore context and point to the ypc to confirm their initial thoughts, while others will see a guy who was constantly having to make plays just to get back to the line of scrimmage

He's buried on the depth chart this year and will likely get overlooked in free agency. His realistic 2019 upside is a Chris Thompson, Duke, or Gio role with whatever team he signs with. Not super enticing... and his downside is even scarier (3rd on the depth chart somewhere). So I'm not advocating for people to trade for him and burn a roster spot for a year, but his play has been better than box score warriors make it out to be.

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I'd love if owners held on to him. Almost any RB in the league has upside just based on the chance they find themselves in a spot where they can get heavy volume.

 

I thought that draft day conversation was hilarious in the Arizona war room. That's why I mentioned it again. There is an ignore option. You are more than welcome to ignore me if my posts annoy you. I'll probably mention it again at some point but it's certainly not with the intentions of upsetting you. I'll use that ignore option as well if I need to. Good luck!

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Telling someone they are being redundant is like telling someone they've got spinach in their teeth. Not malicious. Block me if you want to. :shrug:

Lol that's enough to do it for me. I mean you're trying to talk up AA. That makes me doubt I could benefit that much from your posts anyway. So I don't need to read posts like this just taking shots at me. Cheers!

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I think he's the odd man out here. My suspicions are that the Lions showcased him a bit and he did well. I think he gets moved. He's a decent complimentary back and someone can use him. With Kerryon looking legit, Blount being the big back, and Riddick clearly the catching back, this seems obvious.

ETA: I didn't even read the Detroit Free Press article above posted by Faust but needless to say, I agree completely. He's a young valuable guy but unless there's an injury, there's no need to keep him.

Edited by Futz
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6 minutes ago, joey said:

Trade to Redskins perhaps?

Skins need a between the tackle 15 carry guy. I don't think he's that.

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49 minutes ago, dipandglide said:

What’s his dynasty value if the Skins or another team trade for him?

3rd maybe? Probably even cheaper now, if he goes somewhere like Houston I might like it a lot. Anyplace that needs a 3rd down back and he could have a role, he’s probably worth throwing a 3rd at. But he’s probably super cheap right now.

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MLive's Kyle Meinke believes Ameer Abdullah will make the 53-man roster.

Meinke writes he is "convinced" the final running back spot on the roster is "Abdullah's to lose" after the running back started at both kick and punt returner in the preseason opener. With LeGarrette Blount, Kerryon Johnson, and Theo Riddick locked in atop the depth chart, Abdullah has to make his mark on special teams, and it looks like he is doing just that. Even with his roster spot looking safe, Abdullah is not worth rostering in fantasy leagues.

Source: MLive.com 

Aug 13 - 11:00 AM

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  • 2 weeks later...

I'd say he's a trade candidate, but not many teams really have a need for a scat back type. Maybe Houston, NYJ, Baltimore, Indy, and Denver could use him. That's a short list and would any of them really give up a draft pick for him? Probably not, for a variety of reasons.

He's pretty much dead to me in FF. He'll most likely play sparingly this season and then sign with somebody else next year. My expectations are nil, but it's possible that a different team will find a better use for him.

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42 minutes ago, EBF said:

I'd say he's a trade candidate, but not many teams really have a need for a scat back type. Maybe Houston, NYJ, Baltimore, Indy, and Denver could use him. That's a short list and would any of them really give up a draft pick for him? Probably not, for a variety of reasons.

He's pretty much dead to me in FF. He'll most likely play sparingly this season and then sign with somebody else next year. My expectations are nil, but it's possible that a different team will find a better use for him.

I'm not holding out hope for him being useful in FF, but I think the possibility is certainly there. His hands are good enough that he should at least be able to fill a PPR role (Duke, Riddick, Thompson) if not pull off a Dion Lewis role someday. 

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1 hour ago, EBF said:

I'd say he's a trade candidate, but not many teams really have a need for a scat back type. Maybe Houston, NYJ, Baltimore, Indy, and Denver could use him. That's a short list and would any of them really give up a draft pick for him? Probably not, for a variety of reasons.

He's pretty much dead to me in FF. He'll most likely play sparingly this season and then sign with somebody else next year. My expectations are nil, but it's possible that a different team will find a better use for him.

Maybe Dallas once they give up on this Tavon Austin experiment 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Not too surprising. There's been speculation that he might be a healthy scratch this year if everyone is healthy. He doesn't really have a role on the team besides returns. I thought I was done with Ameer in dynasty, but I was thinking about it yesterday and I'm intrigued by the prospect of taking flyers now that his price is going to completely bottom out. What would he cost? A 4th round rookie pick? I'm intrigued at that price point because his skill set has some value to teams that can utilize this type of player ala Dion Lewis, Austin Ekeler, James White, and Jerick McKinnon. Everyone is going to say he's crap, but his first two seasons showed promise and I predict that someone is going to sign him in the offseason and give him a chance at some kind of a role. He'd be the best healthy back on the Niners, Packers, Ravens, Colts, Broncos, Bucs, and maybe Raiders right now.

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14 minutes ago, EBF said:

Not too surprising. There's been speculation that he might be a healthy scratch this year if everyone is healthy. He doesn't really have a role on the team besides returns. I thought I was done with Ameer in dynasty, but I was thinking about it yesterday and I'm intrigued by the prospect of taking flyers now that his price is going to completely bottom out. What would he cost? A 4th round rookie pick? I'm intrigued at that price point because his skill set has some value to teams that can utilize this type of player ala Dion Lewis, Austin Ekeler, James White, and Jerick McKinnon. Everyone is going to say he's crap, but his first two seasons showed promise and I predict that someone is going to sign him in the offseason and give him a chance at some kind of a role. He'd be the best healthy back on the Niners, Packers, Ravens, Colts, Broncos, Bucs, and maybe Raiders right now.

I agree with everything you said, great lottery ticket at a basement price.

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1 hour ago, EBF said:

Not too surprising. There's been speculation that he might be a healthy scratch this year if everyone is healthy. He doesn't really have a role on the team besides returns. I thought I was done with Ameer in dynasty, but I was thinking about it yesterday and I'm intrigued by the prospect of taking flyers now that his price is going to completely bottom out. What would he cost? A 4th round rookie pick? I'm intrigued at that price point because his skill set has some value to teams that can utilize this type of player ala Dion Lewis, Austin Ekeler, James White, and Jerick McKinnon. Everyone is going to say he's crap, but his first two seasons showed promise and I predict that someone is going to sign him in the offseason and give him a chance at some kind of a role. He'd be the best healthy back on the Niners, Packers, Ravens, Colts, Broncos, Bucs, and maybe Raiders right now.

Like Ebron, someone else can have AA. Good luck. Guy is a good KR for what its worth.

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Things that make you go hmmm....

Detroit's running game in week one:

2.6 YPC

leading rusher = 20 yards

Not saying this completely absolves Abdullah from blame for being terrible last season. It's a new season with a new coach, but it sort of warms the heart of the AA apologist in me to see the replacements performing to similarly abysmal levels. This team doesn't know how to run the ball and hasn't for a long time.

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3 hours ago, EBF said:

Not too surprising. There's been speculation that he might be a healthy scratch this year if everyone is healthy. He doesn't really have a role on the team besides returns. I thought I was done with Ameer in dynasty, but I was thinking about it yesterday and I'm intrigued by the prospect of taking flyers now that his price is going to completely bottom out. What would he cost? A 4th round rookie pick? I'm intrigued at that price point because his skill set has some value to teams that can utilize this type of player ala Dion Lewis, Austin Ekeler, James White, and Jerick McKinnon. Everyone is going to say he's crap, but his first two seasons showed promise and I predict that someone is going to sign him in the offseason and give him a chance at some kind of a role. He'd be the best healthy back on the Niners, Packers, Ravens, Colts, Broncos, Bucs, and maybe Raiders right now.

Huh.  All those guys seem quicker/shiftier to me than Ameer.

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48 minutes ago, EBF said:

Things that make you go hmmm....

Detroit's running game in week one:

2.6 YPC

leading rusher = 20 yards

Not saying this completely absolves Abdullah from blame for being terrible last season. It's a new season with a new coach, but it sort of warms the heart of the AA apologist in me to see the replacements performing to similarly abysmal levels. This team doesn't know how to run the ball and hasn't for a long time.

Do you still believe in Abdullah if he were to go to a favorable situation or has the ship sailed? 

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37 minutes ago, dipandglide said:

Do you still believe in Abdullah if he were to go to a favorable situation or has the ship sailed? 

Well, let's say at any given time there are 15 RBs in the NFL who "deserve" to be starting and then maybe another 15-20 useful guys in FF whose relevance depends on a combination of opportunity and reasonably good talent. Abdullah's failure in Detroit suggests he's not a part of group A, but I do think he's good enough to be part of group B on the right team. I listed some names in the earlier post: McKinnon, Ekeler, Lewis, White. These are not special backs. They're decent players who fill a useful FF role.

I don't have access to FBG's staff rankings, but this site has him at RB59. I think he's probably somewhere around the 35th-45th best back in the NFL, so I like that price point, primarily in deep PPR leagues where a third down back type has the most value. That's so cheap that he's basically free. You make a lowball offer now or get him off waivers, stash him for this year, see where he signs in the spring and dump him if nothing comes of it.

I'm not going to pretend like I have all the right answers about FF or like I never back the wrong horse, but here are a couple pertinent stories: I was a pretty big Spencer Ware fan coming out of LSU. I took him with a late round pick in almost all my leagues and owned him almost everywhere. He made the team as a rookie, but barely played. When the Seahawks cut him after his rookie year, I dumped him and moved on. He was absolutely off the map at that point. He sat out football for a year, came back, and eventually had a relevant season with KC.

When Dion Lewis was coming out of Pitt, I was a huge buyer. I got him almost everywhere. Well...he was buried on the depth chart in Philly. Never got a chance there. Kicked around the league for years before emerging as a useful player in New England. People forget this now, but he was actually on the RB-starved Colts for a short time between Philly and NE, and didn't even stick on the roster there. Yet he eventually found a niche. Now he's probably starting for somebody in your league.

My point is that if a guy has some talent, but isn't an elite mega star, sometimes he can take a rocky road and still come out on the other side with some utility. Even high picks like Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, and Marshawn Lynch were seen as flops at one point. This is NOT to say that Ameer is going to be good or that every bust is really going to turn it around, but you shouldn't necessarily turn your back on every player if he isn't an immediate success.

I wouldn't give up anything valuable to get Abdullah at this point, but I would pay above RB59 value and take a punt in hopes that he finds a new home. He showed potential in Detroit despite the overall poor numbers and would be snapped up pretty quickly if they cut him. As I said, I think he'll get signed somewhere in the spring.

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30 minutes ago, EBF said:

Well, let's say at any given time there are 15 RBs in the NFL who "deserve" to be starting and then maybe another 15-20 useful guys in FF whose relevance depends on a combination of opportunity and reasonably good talent. Abdullah's failure in Detroit suggests he's not a part of group A, but I do think he's good enough to be part of group B on the right team. I listed some names in the earlier post: McKinnon, Ekeler, Lewis, White. These are not special backs. They're decent players who fill a useful FF role.

I don't have access to FBG's staff rankings, but this site has him at RB59. I think he's probably somewhere around the 35th-45th best back in the NFL, so I like that price point, primarily in deep PPR leagues where a third down back type has the most value. That's so cheap that he's basically free. You make a lowball offer now or get him off waivers, stash him for this year, see where he signs in the spring and dump him if nothing comes of it.

I'm not going to pretend like I have all the right answers about FF or like I never back the wrong horse, but here are a couple pertinent stories: I was a pretty big Spencer Ware fan coming out of LSU. I took him with a late round pick in almost all my leagues and owned him almost everywhere. He made the team as a rookie, but barely played. When the Seahawks cut him after his rookie year, I dumped him and moved on. He was absolutely off the map at that point. He sat out football for a year, came back, and eventually had a relevant season with KC.

When Dion Lewis was coming out of Pitt, I was a huge buyer. I got him almost everywhere. Well...he was buried on the depth chart in Philly. Never got a chance there. Kicked around the league for years before emerging as a useful player in New England. People forget this now, but he was actually on the RB-starved Colts for a short time between Philly and NE, and didn't even stick on the roster there. Yet he eventually found a niche. Now he's probably starting for somebody in your league.

My point is that if a guy has some talent, but isn't an elite mega star, sometimes he can take a rocky road and still come out on the other side with some utility. Even high picks like Cedric Benson, Thomas Jones, and Marshawn Lynch were seen as flops at one point. This is NOT to say that Ameer is going to be good or that every bust is really going to turn it around, but you shouldn't necessarily turn your back on every player if he isn't an immediate success.

I wouldn't give up anything valuable to get Abdullah at this point, but I would pay above RB59 value and take a punt in hopes that he finds a new home. He showed potential in Detroit despite the overall poor numbers and would be snapped up pretty quickly if they cut him. As I said, I think he'll get signed somewhere in the spring.

I owe you for all of my Juju and Tyreke shares. When you talk, I listen :D Thanks for the reply. 

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On 9/10/2018 at 8:31 PM, EBF said:

Things that make you go hmmm....

Detroit's running game in week one:

2.6 YPC

leading rusher = 20 yards

Not saying this completely absolves Abdullah from blame for being terrible last season. It's a new season with a new coach, but it sort of warms the heart of the AA apologist in me to see the replacements performing to similarly abysmal levels. This team doesn't know how to run the ball and hasn't for a long time.

At some point I remember reading a piece of advanced stat info on Abdullah stating he was leading the league in avg rushing yardage after initial contact. Yet it seems like Detroit and its fans were always down on him and looking for his replacement. I'm wondering when they'll realize it doesn't even matter who gets the touches in this backfield; RBs are just not set up for success on this team.

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19 minutes ago, -arcK- said:

At some point I remember reading a piece of advanced stat info on Abdullah stating he was leading the league in avg rushing yardage after initial contact. Yet it seems like Detroit and its fans were always down on him and looking for his replacement. I'm wondering when they'll realize it doesn't even matter who gets the touches in this backfield; RBs are just not set up for success on this team.

I'm a full on AA apologist, but I've never understood why this team can't run block. I mean, I get that the loss of Decker last year was huge, but they've struggled to run block for every year Abdullah has been there. Looking back, it's a small miracle he was able to put up 4.2 or 4.3 ypc his rookie year. Everyone else on the team was in the 3 ypc range, IIRC.

They have a good passing game (historically - not week 1) and a healthy OL this season. I really expect the ground game to get going this year regardless of who is in the backfield... well, except for Riddick, he's just an awful runner - there's a reason they don't give him more carries. Might be a good time to buy low on Kerryon in redraft leagues. 

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24 minutes ago, -arcK- said:

At some point I remember reading a piece of advanced stat info on Abdullah stating he was leading the league in avg rushing yardage after initial contact. Yet it seems like Detroit and its fans were always down on him and looking for his replacement. I'm wondering when they'll realize it doesn't even matter who gets the touches in this backfield; RBs are just not set up for success on this team.

I can't believe Blount didn't fix the running game. LOL

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Just now, FF Ninja said:

I'm a full on AA apologist, but I've never understood why this team can't run block. I mean, I get that the loss of Decker last year was huge, but they've struggled to run block for every year Abdullah has been there. Looking back, it's a small miracle he was able to put up 4.2 or 4.3 ypc his rookie year. Everyone else on the team was in the 3 ypc range, IIRC.

They have a good passing game (historically - not week 1) and a healthy OL this season. I really expect the ground game to get going this year regardless of who is in the backfield... well, except for Riddick, he's just an awful runner - there's a reason they don't give him more carries. Might be a good time to buy low on Kerryon in redraft leagues. 

It makes me wonder if JBC doesn't know how to get a running game going. Mike Lombardi (on his pod) said that the issue is JBC telegraphs everything. Teams know if it is a run or pass based on formation and personnel. He said adding Blount compounds the problem. He also said Patricia really screwed up by not telling JBC how predictbale they are and getting it fixed. 

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3 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

It makes me wonder if JBC doesn't know how to get a running game going. Mike Lombardi (on his pod) said that the issue is JBC telegraphs everything. Teams know if it is a run or pass based on formation and personnel. He said adding Blount compounds the problem. He also said Patricia really screwed up by not telling JBC how predictbale they are and getting it fixed. 

If this is true, how has no one told JBC this already? If it is being talked about openly on the radio or podcasts, it should take Patricia to tell him. Conversely, shame on Patricia if the media is more on top of things than he is. 

Sometimes I think coaches are much less intelligent than we give them credit for. Reminds me of the olden days when Ryan Mathews would touch the ball on over 60% of his snaps. You'd have to think opposing coaches were picking up on that trend, but maybe DCs are just as dumb as OCs...

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28 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

If this is true, how has no one told JBC this already? If it is being talked about openly on the radio or podcasts, it should take Patricia to tell him. Conversely, shame on Patricia if the media is more on top of things than he is. 

Sometimes I think coaches are much less intelligent than we give them credit for. Reminds me of the olden days when Ryan Mathews would touch the ball on over 60% of his snaps. You'd have to think opposing coaches were picking up on that trend, but maybe DCs are just as dumb as OCs...

I mean the Jets players openly told the media they knew all the Lions plays and were calling them out presnap. I know Patricia is a new HC so I am sure that is a ton of work. Plus he is trying to make over the defense. Perhaps he just trusted JBC to take care of the offense? I am usually a patient and optimistic fan but there has not been a single positive thing since the Patricia hiring. It all looks really bad. Over the summer and again Tuesday reports leaked that many of the Lion vets don't like him and he is in danger of losing the team. 

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On 9/12/2018 at 8:40 AM, Ilov80s said:

He also said Patricia really screwed up by not telling JBC how predictbale they are and getting it fixed. 

 

On 9/12/2018 at 8:47 AM, FF Ninja said:

Conversely, shame on Patricia if the media is more on top of things than he is. 

Don't blame Patricia! I mean how would he possibly know the Lions were telegraphing their plays? It's not like he was ever a defensive coordinator or anything.

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On 12/09/2018 at 4:40 PM, Ilov80s said:

It makes me wonder if JBC doesn't know how to get a running game going. Mike Lombardi (on his pod) said that the issue is JBC telegraphs everything. Teams know if it is a run or pass based on formation and personnel. He said adding Blount compounds the problem. He also said Patricia really screwed up by not telling JBC how predictbale they are and getting it fixed. 

That first sentence has been my suspicion for quite a while. The personnel is there. I hoped the removal of Prince as OLine coach would sort it but perhaps the problem is JBC

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On ‎9‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 11:40 AM, Ilov80s said:

It makes me wonder if JBC doesn't know how to get a running game going. Mike Lombardi (on his pod) said that the issue is JBC telegraphs everything. Teams know if it is a run or pass based on formation and personnel. He said adding Blount compounds the problem. He also said Patricia really screwed up by not telling JBC how predictbale they are and getting it fixed. 

The Jet defensive players said something similar after the Monday Night game.

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I've been trying to acquire him in the 2/5 dynasties where I don't have him already. As it turns out, the same owner has him in both leagues.

My last two offers that were knocked back:

League #1: Paul Richardson for Ameer

League #2: 2020 3rd round rookie pick for Ameer

Not sure if I will make improved offers or not. In theory, his value should be in the toilet since he flopped last season and isn't even active on gamedays so far this season. In practice, you may encounter some resistance from stubborn believers who invested big in him a couple years back and don't want to cut bait for cheap.

I still think it's worth tossing out some lowball offers in your leagues to see where people stand. On the other hand, you don't want to spend big on a guy like this. 

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  • 1 month later...
12 minutes ago, Steeler said:

Is he worth a speculative add to see where he lands?

Not many places he could land where he would 1) be a clear upgrade and B) not be on a terrible team offering little value RoS.

Maybe TB? Terrible team with a potent offense, Jones injured and Barber uninspiring.

Otherwise.. :shrug:

 

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7 minutes ago, mcd said:

Seems like he would fit well in San Francisco with Breida always gimpy and mostert out. Runs and receives, clear upgrade over Morris,  what's not to like.

I don't see him as a clear upgrade over Morris. He doesn't know the offense hasn't performed better at any point in his career and has the same, or worse, ball security issues as Morris.

He would be a spec injury dependent add IMO.

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