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Duke Johnson RB Dolphins (1 Viewer)

Some incomplete lists of options if they're looking to add more RB depth or committeeness

Free agents who they could bring in: Jay Ajayi, Doug Martin

Other guys who might soon become FAs: Josh Adams, Carlos Hyde, TJ Yeldon, Elijah McGuire, Spencer Ware, Samaje Perine, Tra Carson

Guys who might be available by trade for cheap: Zach Zenner, Brian Hill

 
I'd go out and acquire Shady McCoy for 6th/7th pick. Still has plenty of juice left even if not what he was. No long term committment and can concentrate next offseason fixing their line. Buffalo will be fine with Gore/Singletary/Yeldon

 
Bracie Smathers said:
I don't know about that.  

I love Duke and thought he should have had more touches with the Browns but he couldn't beat out the Crow and then Carlos Hyde took center stage.  Then Chubb and even though he was the perfect pass receiving back, neither Haley nor Kitchens used him as much as they should.

I honestly don't know why he never got more touches because his numbers screamed for more but he never got the ball and it really bugged me as to why.

We'll see if he is a legit bell-cow RB because no one is in his way.

He 'should' get 15 touches per game but I dunno....
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There are a lot of dumb coaches out there. 

 
TheWinz said:
My point still stands - he wants more touches, and doesn't want to be typecast.  He was behind Crowell his first 3 yrs in CLE, then they bring in Hyde, draft Chubb, and sign Hunt.  
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Should we be taking something from this?

Maybe he can’t handle a workhorse load and Cleveland knows this?

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
Should we be taking something from this?

Maybe he can’t handle a workhorse load and Cleveland knows this?
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Absolutely not!  He was the 1B behind Crowell for 3 years, simply because Crowell was decent enough and a year ahead of him.  When Chubb showed up, there was no chance for Duke to get a big share.  But if you are wondering if he can handle a big load, just look at his college stats.  Also, look at how many games he has missed in his 4 years as a pro.

 
ZWK said:
Some incomplete lists of options if they're looking to add more RB depth or committeeness

Free agents who they could bring in: Jay Ajayi, Doug Martin

Other guys who might soon become FAs: Josh Adams, Carlos Hyde, TJ Yeldon, Elijah McGuire, Spencer Ware, Samaje Perine, Tra Carson

Guys who might be available by trade for cheap: Zach Zenner, Brian Hill
Click to expand...
That seems like an accurate list. As such give me Duke as the starter by a really, really wide margin over any of those.

 
Duke may not be a good bell cow back (we don't know yet) but here is a list of other NFL backs who are the lead backs on their team who are as small or even smaller.

Duke Johnson, 207, 5'9''

McCoy 198, 5'11''

Devonta Freeman 206, 5'8''

Christian McCaffrey, 202, 5'11''

Phillip Linday 190, 5'8''

Aaron Jones 208, 5'9''

Tevin Coleman 206, 5'11''

 
Projection time

240 carries, 80 catches

That's only 20 touches a game, and he averaged 22 as a senior, so I figured I'd dial it down a notch   ;)

 
BobbyLayne said:
320? I’ll take the under.

NFL RBs with 320+: 2016 - 4, 2017 - 5, 2018 - 4

Miller last 3 with HOU: 307, 283, 245
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not to mention, last year HOU RBs combined for 64 TARGETS. Where are these other targets coming from? 

Honestly I could see Duke with maybe 55 catches. Then the carries are a matter of how much the Texans staff wants to use him as a runner. I'd put him at 220 total touches

 
Last edited by a moderator:
     here are updated 2019 #ClayProjections (I'm clearly going conservative on Duke's carry share)

Mike Clay‏Verified account @MikeClayNFL

Fully expect the Texans to add at RB, but in the meantime, here are updated 2019 #ClayProjections (I'm clearly going conservative on Duke's carry share)

7:17 PM - 24 Aug 2019

-----------------------------------

Click LINK above to see the chart but Clay's projection has Duke at 162 carries and 48 receptions for the year or 10.125 rushing attempts and 3 receptions per game.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
     here are updated 2019 #ClayProjections (I'm clearly going conservative on Duke's carry share)

Mike Clay‏Verified account @MikeClayNFL

Fully expect the Texans to add at RB, but in the meantime, here are updated 2019 #ClayProjections (I'm clearly going conservative on Duke's carry share)

7:17 PM - 24 Aug 2019

-----------------------------------

Click LINK above to see the chart but Clay's projection has Duke at 162 carries and 48 receptions for the year or 10.125 rushing attempts and 3 receptions per game.
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I think this is very realistic, not conservative. 

IMO Crockett will get a few more TDs having the GL carries locked up. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
320? I’ll take the under.

NFL RBs with 320+: 2016 - 4, 2017 - 5, 2018 - 4

Miller last 3 with HOU: 307, 283, 245
Click to expand...
Not hoping to argue your projections   I love to see projections  However a somewhat interesting note on "stats" has to deal w/ receptions   9 times out of 10 a top back has 50+ receptions Believe those high on Duke should take stock on those numbers  I truly doubt the carries   But the potential for the cop back outscoring the starter/early-down back is good

 
BobbyLayne said:
320? I’ll take the under.

NFL RBs with 320+: 2016 - 4, 2017 - 5, 2018 - 4

Miller last 3 with HOU: 307, 283, 245
Click to expand...
I was clearly joking - my wink at the end didn't give it away?  I think finishing as a mid-level RB2 in PPR is within reach

 
Former Cleveland Brown Duke Johnson wanted to be wanted. Now, the Houston Texans need him to be a big part of their offense

Former Cleveland Brown Duke Johnson has become a critical part of the Houston Texans offense with the news that Lamar Miller is out for the year after suffering a significant knee injury.

With the news that Lamar Miller has torn his ACL and MCL, Duke Johnson has gone from being almost a supplemental weapon with the Cleveland Browns to being critical to success for the Houston Texans. ...

... Duke Johnson has never missed a game and on a per touch basis and in terms of making opponents miss tackles, he's tremendous, but he hasn't had a consistently heavy workload since he was setting the school record for career rushing yards at the University of Miami.

And it's not clear how much the Texans plan to run the ball, but with their offensive line issues as well as having a ton of receivers and Deshaun Watson as their quarterback, they should be open minded. Duke can run the ball, but he really excels as a receiver and pass protector.

Perhaps instead of just trying to hand the ball to him 15 or 20 times per game, they should consider using him in the short passing game and screens as a proxy for their running game. It would help them minimize some of their issues up front on the offensive line, allow Watson to have an outlet to get rid of the ball quicker and their talented receivers can create openings for Duke to create yards after the catch, which could generate more yards overall.

When Duke came to the conclusion the Browns were shopping him, he made the decision to demand a trade in what he felt was meeting them in the middle. He said he wanted to go somewhere he was wanted and the Texans certainly want him. Now, they also happen to need him more than they even anticipated when they acquired him. Duke Johnson will have every opportunity to prove why so many watching the Browns thought he should've gotten the ball more while he was here.
Click to expand...

 
Dr. Dan said:
not to mention, last year HOU RBs combined for 64 TARGETS. 
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Which could also be a byproduct of having below average receiving backs. Miller and Blue weren’t exactly known for their ability to catch the ball. Miller wasn’t awful, but he wasn’t fluid like Johnson.

if I’m the Texans and I just traded for Johnson, imma start throwing to him...a lot. I expect they’ll leak him out as a dump-off option frequently, and if they’re smart they’ll design plays to get him in space - screens, line him up at WR from time to time. 

Dude’s got great hands - I suspect the Texans have a plan to throw him the ball. 

If they don’t they should fire everyone.   :lol:  

 
Dismattle said:
Not hoping to argue your projections   I love to see projections  However a somewhat interesting note on "stats" has to deal w/ receptions   9 times out of 10 a top back has 50+ receptions Believe those high on Duke should take stock on those numbers  I truly doubt the carries   But the potential for the cop back outscoring the starter/early-down back is good
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He can absolutely be an RB1 in PPR with 80-120 carries. It’s happened 5 times in the last two years, plus Drake was RB14 last year.

 
What are people doing with Duke? 

Is he a sell to Miller owner? Is he a hold?  Dynasty wise I picked him up before the Miller injury.  I am thinking about selling for whatever I can get in the chance Houston does bring someone else in. I am in a luxury spot that I would never start him.  Maybe offer him up for a pick next year?

 
BearsFan4Life said:
What are people doing with Duke? 

Is he a sell to Miller owner? Is he a hold?  Dynasty wise I picked him up before the Miller injury.  I am thinking about selling for whatever I can get in the chance Houston does bring someone else in. I am in a luxury spot that I would never start him.  Maybe offer him up for a pick next year?
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I'd hold for now in dyno if you want to trade. I think his value will only go up in September. If he comes out and is meh, I honestly think  he'd have same value to non-owners as he does now. The only way his volume does down from now to October is if they trade for or sign a legit timeshare back.

 
Higdon came in when Miller went out and looked decent.. is he now the compliment to Duke?

 
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BearsFan4Life said:
What are people doing with Duke? 

Is he a sell to Miller owner? Is he a hold?  Dynasty wise I picked him up before the Miller injury.  I am thinking about selling for whatever I can get in the chance Houston does bring someone else in. I am in a luxury spot that I would never start him.  Maybe offer him up for a pick next year?
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I don't believe your selling to anybody but a Miller owner because of costs  I mean what if he is an every down back by the end of the season?  Only 26 yr's old next month  (my bad)  I didn't read all your post  I'm not really sold on them bringing in another back   (I mean they appear sold on the rookie for RZ work)  Mind if I ask whose your top three backs?

 
Big Duke Johnson Fan. He is not an every down RB.  He will be the lead dog, he will be exciting to watch. However this OL in Houston is below average and is a huge concern for both Duke and Watson. They stink. 

In PPR obviously Duke has a lot of value. In standard leagues he may be a decent RB3......maybe. 

 
  • Smile
Reactions: Neo
The idea that duke is the 3rd down back and the early down role is going to either young guy or some guy off the garbage heap baffles me. Like the link from @Bracie Smathers says, they could come out throwing more than any team in the league, reminiscent of the lions with Reggie bush. I don’t see how duke isn’t a rb2 this year, at least. He may not be an “every down back” but he might get every down work anyway, and could be a ppr machine, a total yds machine. Probably not a td machine.  

 
Todem said:
Big Duke Johnson Fan. He is not an every down RB.  He will be the lead dog, he will be exciting to watch. However this OL in Houston is below average and is a huge concern for both Duke and Watson. They stink. 

In PPR obviously Duke has a lot of value. In standard leagues he may be a decent RB3......maybe. 
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The OL issues make me even higher on duke. 

More dump-offs to Duke. 

 
Duke Johnson

2015

  • Rushes 104, Yards 379 / 0 TD
  • Receptions 61, Yards 534 / 2TD
2016

  • Rushes 73, Yards 358 / 1 TD
  • Receptions 53, Yards 514 / 0 TD
2017

  • Rushes 82, Yards 348 /4 TD
  • Receptions 74, Yards 693 / 3 TD
2018

  • Rushes 40, Yards 201 / 0 TD
  • Receptions 47, Yards 429 / 3 TD
Total 299 Rush attempts 1,286 Rush yards / 5 TD -  235 Receptions, 2,170 Rec. yards / 8 TD

He's great in pass-pro and as a receiving back.  His elusiveness rating is one of the best in the league but he has never carried the load.

Using him as the article linked above suggested like a West Coast RB where short receptions would take heat off a struggling O-Line and act as an extension of the running game would work very-well with the strength of Duke's skill set. 

Duke thrived in that role with the Browns.

 
Dismattle said:
I don't believe your selling to anybody but a Miller owner because of costs  I mean what if he is an every down back by the end of the season?  Only 26 yr's old next month  (my bad)  I didn't read all your post  I'm not really sold on them bringing in another back   (I mean they appear sold on the rookie for RZ work)  Mind if I ask whose your top three backs?
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I have McCaffrey, LBell, and DFreeman

 
BearsFan4Life said:
I have McCaffrey, LBell, and DFreeman
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I would still hold for now until you’ve seen a game or 2. 

Its a risk/reward - if he’s used as the leader of a timeshare (65-35) with short receptions as an extension of the run game you’ll command more value for Duke in PPR.

of course there’s a chance the Texans pull the rug from under him & bring in a back, but I think that’s a lower % chance. If anything they’ll bring in a banger to run between the tackles & give Duke the bigger role since they’re not built well for ground & pound. 

 
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