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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Breshad Perriman, Lions


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No way I could put OBJ in my championship line up after the turd he’s been all year. I actually cut him two weeks ago to avoid this decision. I hope he works out for you if you start him, but Perriman

Where the heck was all this for the past 5 years when I drafted you in the 1st round of my rookie draft.  Do nothing for 4 and 3/4 years and then explode.

Yeesh. Who do you like in this draft at WR? 

2 hours ago, killface said:

this seems like such a high ceiling but i have a feeling that it's a trap

The problem is that everyone seems to be concentrating on ceiling here, when the important number is the floor. Since week 3, Winston has thrown for over 300 yards in every game but 2. He's gone over 40 attempts in 7 of the last 9. And he's going for those previously mentioned single season records. There are going to be a lot of passes to go around. Godwin had 8 targets before he went down, and I expect Perriman to get the bulk of those first looks.  And with Godwin, Evans, and Scott Miller all out, I would have to think Perriman gets at least 8 or 9 targets. His floor is what makes it such an easy call to play him this week, IMO. I'm playing him in my flex over Golladay, Mostert, and Robby Anderson and not even thinking twice about it.

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18 hours ago, Shrek said:

Godwin had 8 targets before he went down, and I expect Perriman to get the bulk of those first looks.

The Texans might be thinking the same thing and will put a lot of defensive attention on Perriman.  Perriman isn't so studly that he should be thrown to when covered.  Justin Watson has a 50% chance of scoring more fantasy points than Perriman.

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I watched him years ago and he was awful. I saw him earlier this year against the Titans. He ran into the center or....something wow bad presnap and also seemed like he forgot to put his hands up as the ball hit his facemask.  It was so unbelievable looking at his stats last week.

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22 hours ago, Bri said:

I watched him years ago and he was awful. I saw him earlier this year against the Titans. He ran into the center or....something wow bad presnap and also seemed like he forgot to put his hands up as the ball hit his facemask.  It was so unbelievable looking at his stats last week.

Because he's not the same player he was in Baltimore. People tend to think once you have the bust label you don't change, and that can lead to being labeled. The thing is he wasn't bad with Cleveland during his time there, he was at least better there than with the Ravens in limited opportunities. Here he's going to get bankable volume in a shootout w/ a dude who probably will throw to him covered or not. I'm not saying he's going to reap souls out there, but he has an opportunity for a solid line due to probably getting 8-10 targets. Based on his site projections all he really needs to pay off is 11 FP; could be 50/1 or 110/0.

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I'm starting him in a flex position but hardly confident. We've seen lots of examples of receivers who rake as WR2s and get shut down when the WR1 attention is on them. I haven't studied every snap of Perriman but I'll go out on a limb and say we've seen it happen to better receivers than him. As a single variable, more volume is obviously better than less but that isn't the only aspect of his situation that has changed. 

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On 12/20/2019 at 3:23 AM, Don Hutson said:

The Texans might be thinking the same thing and will put a lot of defensive attention on Perriman.  Perriman isn't so studly that he should be thrown to when covered.  Justin Watson has a 50% chance of scoring more fantasy points than Perriman.

The difference is that Perriman has the speed to get by any of the HOU DBs.

hard to cover someone when they’re 10 yards downfield from you. 

Perriman has now had several nice games with all the receivers healthy this year, and is on a really nice 3 game stretch. Every time he’s targeted he produces. With Evans & Godwin out, I read that’s ~15 targets that have to go somewhere. Perriman has 6 targets in each of the last 3 and he's produced. Earlier this year when he had targets he produced.

so if he gets say, +3 targets this week (9) he should produce even more. If he gets +6 targets this week (12) he could be a league-winner.

As what’s likely a flex play for teams, Perriman has a terrific ceiling. I don’t see his floor as “shut down by HOU secondary” because they HOU secondary has been mostly bad this year. I believe 20th? 

yeah - fire up Perriman. Winston is balling & will force the ball to anyone at any time to mixed results, and has the cannon to get it to Perriman deep. And Ariens will take some deep shots today. 

Dodds has him 11th PPR. Hard to bench a dude like that. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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19 minutes ago, oddsbodkins said:

Kind of reminds me of DeVante Parker this year. Guy has been a massive bust for years until the last month this season. Before the concussion, he was in everyone's SL thanks to a crazy 180 in production. Players do change and improve... some later than others.

If I'm not mistaken both WRs also have no coaches this year.Sometimes that's what it takes to get a light bulb to go on

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2 hours ago, habsfan said:

I'm starting him in a flex position but hardly confident. We've seen lots of examples of receivers who rake as WR2s and get shut down when the WR1 attention is on them. I haven't studied every snap of Perriman but I'll go out on a limb and say we've seen it happen to better receivers than him. As a single variable, more volume is obviously better than less but that isn't the only aspect of his situation that has changed. 

The difference is that the “attention” that the WR1 is going to get is just not very good. It’s not like Ramsey, or J.White is going to be covering him. If so, then I would agree.

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2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

The difference is that Perriman has the speed to get by any of the HOU DBs.

hard to cover someone when they’re 10 yards downfield from you. 

Perriman has now had several nice games with all the receivers healthy this year, and is on a really nice 3 game stretch. Every time he’s targeted he produces. With Evans & Godwin out, I read that’s ~15 targets that have to go somewhere. Perriman has 6 targets in each of the last 3 and he's produced. Earlier this year when he had targets he produced.

so if he gets say, +3 targets this week (9) he should produce even more. If he gets +6 targets this week (12) he could be a league-winner.

As what’s likely a flex play for teams, Perriman has a terrific ceiling. I don’t see his floor as “shut down by HOU secondary” because they HOU secondary has been mostly bad this year. I believe 20th? 

yeah - fire up Perriman. Winston is balling & will force the ball to anyone at any time to mixed results, and has the cannon to get it to Perriman deep. And Ariens will take some deep shots today. 

Dodds has him 11th PPR. Hard to bench a dude like that. 

Dammit now I want to put him in over obj after reading this. Ugh! 

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32 minutes ago, mozzy84 said:

Dammit now I want to put him in over obj after reading this. Ugh! 

No way I could put OBJ in my championship line up after the turd he’s been all year. I actually cut him two weeks ago to avoid this decision. I hope he works out for you if you start him, but Perriman is the only guy in town, and  with a slinging QB.

Turd has Faker Mayfield😳 Nuff said.

 

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6 hours ago, The Frankman said:

Because he's not the same player he was in Baltimore. People tend to think once you have the bust label you don't change, and that can lead to being labeled. The thing is he wasn't bad with Cleveland during his time there, he was at least better there than with the Ravens in limited opportunities. Here he's going to get bankable volume in a shootout w/ a dude who probably will throw to him covered or not. I'm not saying he's going to reap souls out there, but he has an opportunity for a solid line due to probably getting 8-10 targets. Based on his site projections all he really needs to pay off is 11 FP; could be 50/1 or 110/0.

The Titans game was weeks ago though

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Interestingly enough Yahoo! dropped Perriman's projection to 8.65 (was over 9 FP most of the week) and raised Watson to 6.44 (was below 6 then crept over it Thursday).

5 hours ago, Don Hutson said:

How is he different aside from putting up nice stats for the last few weeks?

Unlike Baltimore he's actually doing something... in Cleveland he was actually producing a little in limited opportunities, but nowhere near his draft label. It's been roughly the same with Tampa but he's been more consistent and more importantly, limiting the mental errors and horrible drops (still has a few). Hell, this stretch I outlined is the best of his career and it's not like the D he's facing is a huge threat to shut it down.

Edited by The Frankman
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Breshad Perriman caught 7-of-12 targets for 102 yards in Tampa Bay's Week 16 loss to the Texans.

Perriman has made the most of his opportunities filling in for Mike Evans, totaling 13/215/3 and back-to-back 100-yard performances in Tampa Bay's last two contests. The 26-year-old breakout once again showed off his speed in this one, exploding for gains of 27, 19, 16, and 11 yards as Bradley Roby and Vernon Hargreaves struggled to contain him along the perimeter. He was also overthrown while streaking wide open up the seam for a would-be touchdown in the second quarter and nearly padded his stats with a circus-like 32-yard catch that was negated and ruled out of bounds. Even the utmost Perriman pessimist would have to agree he's building a resume to earn a respectable contract as a free agent ahead of the 2020 open market. Fire him up as a strong WR2 for Tampa Bay's regular season finale against the Falcons.

So many overthrows, he was arguably overthrown for 3 potential TDs.

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With 100 yard bonus, I got 19.2 out of him.

if Winston didn’t have his head up his butt all day, I expect we would’ve gotten a lot more.

still, a fairly solid outing. add to that my opponent started Fuller, got three points from him and left with a groin injury and it adds up to a pretty good day. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy
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23 minutes ago, Steeler said:

I'm pleased with the 13.7 total in .5 ppr - helps that my opponent started Winston.

In Dynasty, my week 15 opponent had Winston and killed me with them. Why couldn’t he have done this last week In dynasty, my week 15 opponent had Winston and killed me with him. Why couldn’t he have done this last week? :doh: 

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10 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

In Dynasty, my week 15 opponent had Winston and killed me with them. Why couldn’t he have done this last week In dynasty, my week 15 opponent had Winston and killed me with him. Why couldn’t he have done this last week? :doh: 

You can say that again

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17 points from him in PPR. If you had told me before the game started, "I'll either let you start Perriman and guarantee you 17 points, or you can take your chances with Golladay or Mostert", I would have taken the 17 all day. 12 targets, and if not for Winston looking really bad all day, Perriman could have easily had another monster day. 

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11 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

The difference is that Perriman has the speed to get by any of the HOU DBs.

hard to cover someone when they’re 10 yards downfield from you. 

Perriman has now had several nice games with all the receivers healthy this year, and is on a really nice 3 game stretch. Every time he’s targeted he produces. With Evans & Godwin out, I read that’s ~15 targets that have to go somewhere. Perriman has 6 targets in each of the last 3 and he's produced. Earlier this year when he had targets he produced.

so if he gets say, +3 targets this week (9) he should produce even more. If he gets +6 targets this week (12) he could be a league-winner.

As what’s likely a flex play for teams, Perriman has a terrific ceiling. I don’t see his floor as “shut down by HOU secondary” because they HOU secondary has been mostly bad this year. I believe 20th? 

yeah - fire up Perriman. Winston is balling & will force the ball to anyone at any time to mixed results, and has the cannon to get it to Perriman deep. And Ariens will take some deep shots today. 

Dodds has him 11th PPR. Hard to bench a dude like that. 

So he was a chump for 3 years.  But now he is a stud?  Maybe.  I have more faith in his situation than I have in him.

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11 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

So he was a chump for 3 years.  But now he is a stud?  Maybe.  I have more faith in his situation than I have in him.

He wasn’t the problem today. Winston (e.g. his situation) was terrible & he still had a solid game.

i don’t think he was a chump for 3 years. I think a Baltimore didn’t use him right & maybe he didn’t gel with his coaches. Ariens is a passing game guru, sometimes a change of scenery & it clicks. :shrug:

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

He wasn’t the problem today. Winston (e.g. his situation) was terrible & he still had a solid game.

i don’t think he was a chump for 3 years. I think a Baltimore didn’t use him right & maybe he didn’t gel with his coaches. Ariens is a passing game guru, somethings a change of scenery & it clicks. :shrug:

I'm in Vietnam.  My time zones are all messed up.  I didn't realize that he had actually already played.  7 catches and 102 yards is really good.  I started him in one league.  I am pleased.

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Where the heck was all this for the past 5 years when I drafted you in the 1st round of my rookie draft.  Do nothing for 4 and 3/4 years and then explode.

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1 hour ago, Dez said:

Where the heck was all this for the past 5 years when I drafted you in the 1st round of my rookie draft.  Do nothing for 4 and 3/4 years and then explode.

Right?!  Same as you, drafted in the first, held for two years ,cut, on and on waivers with a few different teams.  Kinda funny being he helped me a win a super bowl this year after picking him up about a month ago lol.  
 

will be interesting What kind of value he will have come next August.  

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