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Best Ball (MFL10s, DRAFT, etc.) (2 Viewers)

[SIZE=10.5pt]I appreciate the people posting the analysis of last year's results. It is certainly good information. However, I question how much predictive value it actually has. Although you are looking at hundreds of leagues, I don’t think you can really treat them as independent results. You are actually just looking at a sample size of one. There are probably a relatively small number of players who had a huge impact on the vast majority of leagues. It’s kind of like investing in mutual funds and just looking at last year and noticing that one particular sector did well last year. Does that mean you can expect similar results this year?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt] [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]For example, it might be that a very large percentage of winning teams last year had either DeMarco Murray or LeVeon Bell (both second round picks in most leagues last year). That could easily skew the overall results in favor of teams that started RB/RB but does that mean that RB/RB is the best way to go this year? I'm not so sure you can come to that conclusion based on last years results.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt] [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Anyway, I’m not a statistician so please correct me if my logic is wrong.[/SIZE]

 
FF Wiseguy said:
burnall said:
On another note just finnished up my MFL10

Player 2014 YTD Pts Bye Drafted

Manning, Eli NYG QB 289.8 11.05

Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 370.9 3.05

Allen, Javorius BAL RB ® (O) - 15.05

Freeman, Devonta ATL RB 83.7 9.05

Martin, Doug TBB RB 70.0 8.08

Randle, Joseph DAL RB 40.4 5.05

Sproles, Darren PHI RB 139.8 13.05

Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB 137.1 4.08

Agholor, Nelson PHI WR ® - 6.08

Evans, Mike TBB WR 228.7 2.08

Hardy, Justin ATL WR ® - 17.05

Hurns, Allen JAC WR 151.2 819.05

Moncrief, Donte IND WR 91.5 10.08

Smith, Devin NYJ WR ® - 16.08

Wallace, Mike MIN WR 212.8 7.05

Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 266.4 1.05

Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 59.1 12.08

Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 123.0 18.08

Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def 108.0 20.08

Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def 138.0 14.08
Click to expand...
I like your roster. You assembled a pretty optimal RB corps considering you started in the 4th. I think 11/12 could have been spent on WR instead of taking backup QB/TEs. I think you need a little more floor in your WR corps, as getting 2-3 starts out of your non Evans WRs is a little iffy. But you have just enough to generate good lineups while you wait for your upside guys to grow into their roles.
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yeah i had Jones, Marvin CIN WR and Johnson, Stevie SDC WR qued up for the 11th but both where picked stevie right before me :(

this draft everyone went pretty hard on WR, i'm hoping wallace, hurns and evans can carry my team until a rookie dose something.

 
Touchdown There said:
plastik said:
Touchdown There said:
RobMonge said:
Yeah... the problem here is that you're going to be in a huge hole after the first few weeks where you have like .9 total RBs capable of producing points on their own on your roster and need to field 2. 3 QBs in the first 10 rounds and then going DST/DST in 13/14 is laughable, 5 WR is just not enough. You've illustrated the pitfalls of not knowing how to construct a best ball roster perfectly - I see people in my MFLs making these kinds of mistakes all the time, and it's pretty much the defining element of why these are profitable at scale (you're actually only competing with 8 or 9 teams, not the full 11).
Click to expand...
I have Calvin Johnson and D. Thomas at WR. There was no reason to overload the roster allocation to WR with these two on board and being weak at RB. The QB, WR, TE and D positions are above average on this attempt.

I am confident this roster will end up in the top half of the league points by week 16. If you want to roll out a $100 wager on this roster not being competitive, PM me and lets work it out.
Click to expand...
That's pretty bold wager with this group of RBs:

Ball, Montee DEN RB 36.4 7 11.10

Herron, Dan IND RB 65.8 10 17.10

Hyde, Carlos SFO RB 74.1 10 4.03

McFadden, Darren DAL RB 116.7 6 9.10

Michael, Christine SEA RB 19.5 9 19.10

Starks, James GBP RB 74.7 7 18.03

You'll definitely need an injury to a starter, AND for the backup you drafted to dominate usage, to win that bet, imo. Pretty risky. Seems to me like Herron, McFadden, and Michael would all split snaps evenly at best should the guy ahead of them go down.
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Nothing wrong with a fun wager. I have done three of them on this board over the years and I am 3-3. I think that one tactic posters can't see in my draft logic is that all of my backup RBs are from high powered offenses with lots of touchdowns. RB is the #1 most volatile position.

Ball - Nose for the endzone. Even if CJ holds the starting job I believe that Ball will be the goal-line back and knock out 4-8 TDs. Will be a monster if CJ goes down.

Herron - Purely a backup play in the 17th if old man goes down. Top 5 offense, tons of TDs.

McFadden - Jerry Jones did not bring him in to automatically slot him as a backup. He could win the job outright in camp behind the best oline in the NFL. I'll take the rejuvenated 27 year old 1st round pick over the 5th round projected starter with a 4.6x 40 yard combine time. Never liked McFadden in Oakland and never drafted him before. Love him in Dallas because the Cowboys do.

Michael - Purely a backup play. Lynch is a strange cat, never know what will happen. 19th round.

Starks - Purely a backup play. Lacy has already been concussed twice in the NFL.
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Are you just messing with people right now?

- You want someone to bet you that you'll finish in the top half even though you're in a league that you have to finish top 2 too make the same amount of money.

- You went with a different strategy (which is fine) but you're fighting to try and tell everyone that they are good. They may be good value to you but they aren't a good group. There's potential but in all the possible outcomes for this season they all multiple need things to come up their way. Even the anchor of your RB group (Hyde) has serious question marks.

I get your strategy I think you might have just taken it a bit too far. Swap out the Houston pick for Buffalo (or wait a bit if they were gone) so that the Hawks bye week is covered and axe the Atl pick. That opens up another spot for WR/RB. Swap out the Julius pick in round 5 for a RB/WR and take Eifert in round 10 instead of Stafford. The Bowe pick you could just cut out as well and likely get Stafford there. Maybe switch out the Herron pick for Artis-Payne because Stewart has had injury problems and CAP only has Fozzy in front of him. Herron has Ballard (maybe) and Robinson to compete with for that back up role. Your team would look much different.

Cam

Ben

Stafford

Hyde

5th round RB

DMC

Michael

Starks

Artis Payne

Calvin

DT

Marshal

Britt

20th WR (I like Woods from Buf and better production than Bowe last year)

Eifert

VD

Jimmy

Buffalo

Hawks

I'm not trying to cut down your team and I know hindsight is 20/20 but the whole point of posting your team is for everyone to learn, discuss and get better from it.

 
Touchdown There said:
plastik said:
Touchdown There said:
RobMonge said:
Yeah... the problem here is that you're going to be in a huge hole after the first few weeks where you have like .9 total RBs capable of producing points on their own on your roster and need to field 2. 3 QBs in the first 10 rounds and then going DST/DST in 13/14 is laughable, 5 WR is just not enough. You've illustrated the pitfalls of not knowing how to construct a best ball roster perfectly - I see people in my MFLs making these kinds of mistakes all the time, and it's pretty much the defining element of why these are profitable at scale (you're actually only competing with 8 or 9 teams, not the full 11).
Click to expand...
I have Calvin Johnson and D. Thomas at WR. There was no reason to overload the roster allocation to WR with these two on board and being weak at RB. The QB, WR, TE and D positions are above average on this attempt.

I am confident this roster will end up in the top half of the league points by week 16. If you want to roll out a $100 wager on this roster not being competitive, PM me and lets work it out.
Click to expand...
That's pretty bold wager with this group of RBs:

Ball, Montee DEN RB 36.4 7 11.10

Herron, Dan IND RB 65.8 10 17.10

Hyde, Carlos SFO RB 74.1 10 4.03

McFadden, Darren DAL RB 116.7 6 9.10

Michael, Christine SEA RB 19.5 9 19.10

Starks, James GBP RB 74.7 7 18.03

You'll definitely need an injury to a starter, AND for the backup you drafted to dominate usage, to win that bet, imo. Pretty risky. Seems to me like Herron, McFadden, and Michael would all split snaps evenly at best should the guy ahead of them go down.
Click to expand...
Nothing wrong with a fun wager. I have done three of them on this board over the years and I am 3-3. I think that one tactic posters can't see in my draft logic is that all of my backup RBs are from high powered offenses with lots of touchdowns. RB is the #1 most volatile position.

Ball - Nose for the endzone. Even if CJ holds the starting job I believe that Ball will be the goal-line back and knock out 4-8 TDs. Will be a monster if CJ goes down.

Herron - Purely a backup play in the 17th if old man goes down. Top 5 offense, tons of TDs.

McFadden - Jerry Jones did not bring him in to automatically slot him as a backup. He could win the job outright in camp behind the best oline in the NFL. I'll take the rejuvenated 27 year old 1st round pick over the 5th round projected starter with a 4.6x 40 yard combine time. Never liked McFadden in Oakland and never drafted him before. Love him in Dallas because the Cowboys do.

Michael - Purely a backup play. Lynch is a strange cat, never know what will happen, could also be traded. 19th round.

Starks - Purely a backup play. Lacy has already been concussed twice in the NFL.
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when you say your 3-3 dose this mean you've won(finished first) all 3 leagues? because if so thats very impresssive.

 
For those that have access to the data from 2014, I wonder if you're able to run a quick check. Looking back at my leagues from last year, it looks like the winners typically have at least one WR that finished in the top 12 in scoring, often more than one. If anyone can, could you see what percentage of the winning teams had the following:

1. At least one top 12 scoring WR

2. At least two top 12 scoring WRs

3. At least two top 24 scoring WRs

4. At least three top 24 scoring WRs

While a lot of these winning teams did go RB early, what seemed more important to many is that they landed guys like Beckham, Sanders, Tate, Lafell, Edleman, Wallace, S.Smith relatively late. It might be an interesting thing to look at given the discussion about WRs and upside above.

 
Borden said:
Are you just messing with people right now?

- You want someone to bet you that you'll finish in the top half even though you're in a league that you have to finish top 2 too make the same amount of money.
Click to expand...
3rd place earns a buy in for the next year so I think your facts are off. The original poster eluded to my roster being disqualified out of the gate, so I think it is a fair wager. Step up if you are interested, if not, not really your business.

 
Touchdown There said:
Borden said:
Are you just messing with people right now?

- You want someone to bet you that you'll finish in the top half even though you're in a league that you have to finish top 2 too make the same amount of money.
Click to expand...
3rd place earns a buy in for the next year so I think your facts are off. The original poster eluded to my roster being disqualified out of the gate, so I think it is a fair wager. Step up if you are interested, if not, not really your business.
Click to expand...
I understand it as 2nd gets entry and first gets the rest. Nothing for third.

 
jabarony said:
Touchdown There said:
Borden said:
Are you just messing with people right now?

- You want someone to bet you that you'll finish in the top half even though you're in a league that you have to finish top 2 too make the same amount of money.
Click to expand...
3rd place earns a buy in for the next year so I think your facts are off. The original poster eluded to my roster being disqualified out of the gate, so I think it is a fair wager. Step up if you are interested, if not, not really your business.
Click to expand...
I understand it as 2nd gets entry and first gets the rest. Nothing for third.
Click to expand...
The league in question was an MFL50, which pays out cash to 1st and 2nd, with 3rd getting free entry next year. MFL10's are the only ones that don't have a 3rd place prize.

 
FF Wiseguy said:
jabarony said:
Touchdown There said:
Borden said:
Are you just messing with people right now?

- You want someone to bet you that you'll finish in the top half even though you're in a league that you have to finish top 2 too make the same amount of money.
Click to expand...
3rd place earns a buy in for the next year so I think your facts are off. The original poster eluded to my roster being disqualified out of the gate, so I think it is a fair wager. Step up if you are interested, if not, not really your business.
Click to expand...
I understand it as 2nd gets entry and first gets the rest. Nothing for third.
Click to expand...
The league in question was an MFL50, which pays out cash to 1st and 2nd, with 3rd getting free entry next year. MFL10's are the only ones that don't have a 3rd place prize.
Click to expand...
so shouldent the bet bet if the team dosnt land in top 3? i think that would be more interesting.

 
RobMonge said:
You've illustrated the pitfalls of not knowing how to construct a best ball roster perfectly - I see people in my MFLs making these kinds of mistakes all the time, and it's pretty much the defining element of why these are profitable at scale (you're actually only competing with 8 or 9 teams, not the full 11).
Click to expand...
According to RobMonge, I have illustrated such a bad roster construction that I am not even in competition. Top half finish is a fair wager for this kind of non-sense.

 
Touchdown There said:
RobMonge said:
You've illustrated the pitfalls of not knowing how to construct a best ball roster perfectly - I see people in my MFLs making these kinds of mistakes all the time, and it's pretty much the defining element of why these are profitable at scale (you're actually only competing with 8 or 9 teams, not the full 11).
Click to expand...
According to RobMonge, I have illustrated such a bad roster construction that I am not even in competition. Top half finish is a fair wager for this kind of non-sense.
Click to expand...
I'm definitely interested in a wager here, but you finishing in the top half of the league is not the one as I don't have any confidence in random people's ability to draft best ball. I can post some (or maybe even all) of my rosters - you can pick from them and we can go head to head, or perhaps I could lay odds that you won't 1st/2nd this league. I'm also open to other suggestions, but I'm not laying even money on your team to finish in the top HALF of the league. That's just ridiculous, no matter how poorly I think your team is constructed.

 
Touchdown There said:
Borden said:
Are you just messing with people right now?

- You want someone to bet you that you'll finish in the top half even though you're in a league that you have to finish top 2 too make the same amount of money.
Click to expand...
3rd place earns a buy in for the next year so I think your facts are off. The original poster eluded to my roster being disqualified out of the gate, so I think it is a fair wager. Step up if you are interested, if not, not really your business.
Click to expand...
Settle down Tiger. Your wager was $100 and that's what second place gets in an MFL50. Hence the bet being the same as if you finish second, from a money aspect. You know what I'm saying?

You're posting in an open thread. Why would you post in here if you didn't want people to reply? Either PM (with whoever's business it is) and delete you posts or understand that other people posting, replying and discussing is the exact purpose of a forum/message board.

I'm disappointed that all you replied to in my post was that you thought I didn't understand how payouts worked. Relax and just discuss things. You're clearly angered and challenging people to side bets. You're stressing me out just reading your posts.

There's nothing to be gained my people just saying "Yeah it's fine." Nor is there any benefit in over aggressively defending your position. Take what other people say and use it to fine tune your draft plan.

 
Borden said:
You're posting in an open thread. Why would you post in here if you didn't want people to reply? Either PM (with whoever's business it is) and delete you posts or understand that other people posting, replying and discussing is the exact purpose of a forum/message board.
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I posted my RBs suck, then 3 other people post that my RBs suck, then RobMonge jumps in and says that my roster is automatically excluded from competition. There is no constructive criticism in repeating what I said and then 3 other posters said, hence the wager offer. Just giving a really bad post the opportunity to put money where the mouth is, nothing wrong with that and many others have done it in the past.

Also, if you are on a Buffalo all day chasing Bears, this board shouldn't stress you out. :excited:

 
RobMonge said:
Touchdown There said:
RobMonge said:
You've illustrated the pitfalls of not knowing how to construct a best ball roster perfectly - I see people in my MFLs making these kinds of mistakes all the time, and it's pretty much the defining element of why these are profitable at scale (you're actually only competing with 8 or 9 teams, not the full 11).
Click to expand...
According to RobMonge, I have illustrated such a bad roster construction that I am not even in competition. Top half finish is a fair wager for this kind of non-sense.
Click to expand...
I'm definitely interested in a wager here, but you finishing in the top half of the league is not the one as I don't have any confidence in random people's ability to draft best ball. I can post some (or maybe even all) of my rosters - you can pick from them and we can go head to head, or perhaps I could lay odds that you won't 1st/2nd this league. I'm also open to other suggestions, but I'm not laying even money on your team to finish in the top HALF of the league. That's just ridiculous, no matter how poorly I think your team is constructed.
Click to expand...
What is ridiculous is your post that my roster "illustrates the pitfalls of not knowing how to construct a best ball roster perfectly". You are eluding to me basically contributing to the rest of the league with no shot. If you want to clarify your comment, you are welcome to.

I also never said that I think my team is "poorly constructed". I think it is well constructed, with crappy RBs. All of the other positions are above average with allocations that I believe in (3 QBs if you do not have Rodgers or Luck and 3 defenses).

I may take you up on one of your offers. PM me your rosters. No need to fill up this thread with our side wager.

 
Borden said:
I just made the second private MFL10 for us.

MFL10 - No roster management

Password: footballguys2

If you join, please use your board name.

Also, if you are a person that reads this thread but rarely posts maybe throw up a post saying you're in.
Click to expand...
Just going to give this a bump.

 
Touchdown There said:
RobMonge said:
Touchdown There said:
RobMonge said:
You've illustrated the pitfalls of not knowing how to construct a best ball roster perfectly - I see people in my MFLs making these kinds of mistakes all the time, and it's pretty much the defining element of why these are profitable at scale (you're actually only competing with 8 or 9 teams, not the full 11).
Click to expand...
According to RobMonge, I have illustrated such a bad roster construction that I am not even in competition. Top half finish is a fair wager for this kind of non-sense.
Click to expand...
I'm definitely interested in a wager here, but you finishing in the top half of the league is not the one as I don't have any confidence in random people's ability to draft best ball. I can post some (or maybe even all) of my rosters - you can pick from them and we can go head to head, or perhaps I could lay odds that you won't 1st/2nd this league. I'm also open to other suggestions, but I'm not laying even money on your team to finish in the top HALF of the league. That's just ridiculous, no matter how poorly I think your team is constructed.
Click to expand...
What is ridiculous is your post that my roster "illustrates the pitfalls of not knowing how to construct a best ball roster perfectly". You are eluding to me basically contributing to the rest of the league with no shot. If you want to clarify your comment, you are welcome to.

I also never said that I think my team is "poorly constructed". I think it is well constructed, with crappy RBs. All of the other positions are above average with allocations that I believe in (3 QBs if you do not have Rodgers or Luck and 3 defenses).

I may take you up on one of your offers. PM me your rosters. No need to fill up this thread with our side wager.
Click to expand...
I do not wish to clarify my comment, seems to me the message was pretty clear. I stand by my position that your team is dead money. I simply do not wish to lay even money that you will finish in the top half of your league - that is a fundamentally bad bet that I want no part of at your price. I also never said that you think your team is "poorly constructed", I think your team is poorly constructed. Obviously if you thought your roster was bad you wouldn't be trying to bet hundos on it. I'll collect all my league IDs and PM them over, have a look and let me know what you wanna do.

 
RobMonge said:
Touchdown There said:
RobMonge said:
Touchdown There said:
RobMonge said:
You've illustrated the pitfalls of not knowing how to construct a best ball roster perfectly - I see people in my MFLs making these kinds of mistakes all the time, and it's pretty much the defining element of why these are profitable at scale (you're actually only competing with 8 or 9 teams, not the full 11).
Click to expand...
According to RobMonge, I have illustrated such a bad roster construction that I am not even in competition. Top half finish is a fair wager for this kind of non-sense.
Click to expand...
I'm definitely interested in a wager here, but you finishing in the top half of the league is not the one as I don't have any confidence in random people's ability to draft best ball. I can post some (or maybe even all) of my rosters - you can pick from them and we can go head to head, or perhaps I could lay odds that you won't 1st/2nd this league. I'm also open to other suggestions, but I'm not laying even money on your team to finish in the top HALF of the league. That's just ridiculous, no matter how poorly I think your team is constructed.
Click to expand...
What is ridiculous is your post that my roster "illustrates the pitfalls of not knowing how to construct a best ball roster perfectly". You are eluding to me basically contributing to the rest of the league with no shot. If you want to clarify your comment, you are welcome to.

I also never said that I think my team is "poorly constructed". I think it is well constructed, with crappy RBs. All of the other positions are above average with allocations that I believe in (3 QBs if you do not have Rodgers or Luck and 3 defenses).

I may take you up on one of your offers. PM me your rosters. No need to fill up this thread with our side wager.
Click to expand...
I do not wish to clarify my comment, seems to me the message was pretty clear. I stand by my position that your team is dead money. I simply do not wish to lay even money that you will finish in the top half of your league - that is a fundamentally bad bet that I want no part of at your price. I also never said that you think your team is "poorly constructed", I think your team is poorly constructed. Obviously if you thought your roster was bad you wouldn't be trying to bet hundos on it. I'll collect all my league IDs and PM them over, have a look and let me know what you wanna do.
Click to expand...
75% of rosters are dead money, because only 3 out of 12 land in the money. Also, if you thought my roster was that bad, it is not an even bet. It is only an even bet if you randomly select a roster from the thousands of drafts. If you get to view the roster ahead of time and think it is poorly constructed and "dead money" then you should have odds (in your mind). If you see the roster ahead of time and call it even money, then it would be an "average draft" by definition.

Look forward to your PM, maybe we can still work out a fun wager.

 
msudaisy26 said:
Borden said:
Borden said:
I just made the second private MFL10 for us.

MFL10 - No roster management

Password: footballguys2

If you join, please use your board name.

Also, if you are a person that reads this thread but rarely posts maybe throw up a post saying you're in.
Click to expand...
Just going to give this a bump.
Click to expand...
Looks like fun, let me throw 10 into my MFL account and I will join.
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In, it might show me as Stacy or Msudaisy.

 
Borden said:
I just made the second private MFL10 for us.

MFL10 - No roster management

Password: footballguys2

If you join, please use your board name.

Also, if you are a person that reads this thread but rarely posts maybe throw up a post saying you're in.
Click to expand...
Debating doing this again.

Loved the first one since it was quick. I absolutely hate the slow long drawn out ones. I am in some where guys average 3-4 hrs for each pick. I could see 3-4 hrs for a pick one time (especially if there was a run at night time after you went to bed). But over the course of many rounds, I don't remotely get a 3-4 hr average. Ok rant over.

The good: As mentioned, I love a fast draft. I think I was the fastest (or maybe 2nd fastest) in the first one we did.

The bad: Won't it pretty much be the same guys? At least for the most part?

Feel free to let me know what you think of my team from the first one...the good and the bad:

QB - Kaepernick, Cutler, Palmer

RB - McCoy, L.Miller, Hyde, J.Bell, Asiata

WR - Marshall, R.White, Decker, Garcon, Cruz, Harvin, Patterson

TE - Gronk, Reed

Def - Balt, SF, Jax

 
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
Borden said:
I just made the second private MFL10 for us.

MFL10 - No roster management

Password: footballguys2

If you join, please use your board name.

Also, if you are a person that reads this thread but rarely posts maybe throw up a post saying you're in.
Click to expand...
Debating doing this again.Loved the first one since it was quick. I absolutely hate the slow long drawn out ones. I am in some where guys average 3-4 hrs for each pick. I could see 3-4 hrs for a pick one time (especially if there was a run at night time after you went to bed). But over the course of many rounds, I don't remotely get a 3-4 hr average. Ok rant over.

The good: As mentioned, I love a fast draft. I think I was the fastest (or maybe 2nd fastest) in the first one we did.

The bad: Won't it pretty much be the same guys? At least for the most part?

Feel free to let me know what you think of my team from the first one...the good and the bad:

QB - Kaepernick, Cutler, Palmer

RB - McCoy, L.Miller, Hyde, J.Bell, Asiata

WR - Marshall, R.White, Decker, Garcon, Cruz, Harvin, Patterson

TE - Gronk, Reed

Def - Balt, SF, Jax
Click to expand...
I would've grabbed a 3rd TE instead of wr/def just because Reed is fragile. Or maybe just a different TE instead of Reed. Other than that, It looks decent - your 1/12 odds look to be intact.

 
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
Borden said:
I just made the second private MFL10 for us.

MFL10 - No roster management

Password: footballguys2

If you join, please use your board name.

Also, if you are a person that reads this thread but rarely posts maybe throw up a post saying you're in.
Click to expand...
Debating doing this again.

Loved the first one since it was quick. I absolutely hate the slow long drawn out ones. I am in some where guys average 3-4 hrs for each pick. I could see 3-4 hrs for a pick one time (especially if there was a run at night time after you went to bed). But over the course of many rounds, I don't remotely get a 3-4 hr average. Ok rant over.

The good: As mentioned, I love a fast draft. I think I was the fastest (or maybe 2nd fastest) in the first one we did.

The bad: Won't it pretty much be the same guys? At least for the most part?
Click to expand...
Seems like there will be a number of different people... plus I'm pretty sure I'll take a much different approach, depending on the draft slot.

Seven spots left.

 
Is there a quick link to join the MFL10 that's open? When I search I get a ton of similarly named leagues.

 
Broadway probably has stats from last year that say the person who was the 10th to sign up won at a 15.372 rate. So, he's just lying in wait getting ready to pounce.

 
plastik said:
For those that have access to the data from 2014, I wonder if you're able to run a quick check. Looking back at my leagues from last year, it looks like the winners typically have at least one WR that finished in the top 12 in scoring, often more than one. If anyone can, could you see what percentage of the winning teams had the following:

1. At least one top 12 scoring WR

2. At least two top 12 scoring WRs

3. At least two top 24 scoring WRs

4. At least three top 24 scoring WRs

While a lot of these winning teams did go RB early, what seemed more important to many is that they landed guys like Beckham, Sanders, Tate, Lafell, Edleman, Wallace, S.Smith relatively late. It might be an interesting thing to look at given the discussion about WRs and upside above.
Click to expand...
Thank you for trying to get this back on track. I just started these this year (on my sixth in about 3 weeks), so I am new to the nuances of how people draft. Obviously, RBs are going early. My problem is, I have yet to find that "sweet spot" in the draft where I feel I can forgo a good WR, for an average RB. For example, I am in a draft now where I went Jamal Charles first and picked again at the 24-25 swing. Staring at me at this point were Cobb, Jeffrey, Hilton and Evans. I took the first two, and the others went right after me. I really wanted to go RB/RB there, but was looking at a choice of Miller, Gore, Spiller, Ingram, Ellington-types. Of course, they went in succession right after those WR picks. Should I have gone with one of those guys? It just seems hard to me to pass up a guy like Cobb/Jeffrey for a Gore, for example. I guess when I pick at the 4.12-5.01 turn, we'll see what I can get.

I'd take your observation a step further, and try to find out whether those teams who went early on RB won it because of the RB production or in spite of it.

 
Gonna jump in here with my two cents.

I have noticed there is a lot of talk in this thread regarding studying last yr's MFL10s - what worked and what did not. More to that point, some have been trying to find the optimal number of each position (ie, how many Qs, how many Rs, how many Ws, etc). Some have even taken it a step further looking at when to take each (ie, how many RBs to have by round 5, when to take 1st QB, etc).

I think this has some merit, but for the most part, I think it is missing the point. Some of you will jump on me for that. That's fine.

I just think it is more important to get value and hit the occasional home run (or at least a few doubles and triples).

Think about it this way - if someone last yr took Forsett and OBJ extremely late - they probably did very well. Provided they were not stupid and drafting Marvin Jones in the 1st or Larry Donnell in the 2nd, a team that took Forsett and OBJ late probably did very well. Now if someone did take those two late and just drafted decent/solid the rest of the way - do you think it matters if they had 2 QBs vs 3? Or 2 defenses vs 3? Probably not.

But if they won their league and some studying the MFL10 winners are looking at their roster makeup - they will put a mark in the column of "Winner with 2 QBs" or "Winner with 3 QBs" - and then that column (whether it is 2 or 3) will get credit it might not necessarily deserve. Meaning Forsett and OBJ were essentially the reason they won. Not that they went with 2 or 3 QBs.

Looking at it another way - if that team drafted decent/solid most of the way through and took Forsett and OBJ very late - do you think it really matters if they took at 3rd QB in the 15th versus a flyer on another WR? My guess is that if they won - that change in the 15th would not matter.

So the point is not necessarily finding the optimal amount at each position; or even when to take each position. The idea is to find extreme value like Forsett or OBJ last yr. Just because a team won with only 3 RBs last yr - does not mean that is optimal. After all, maybe that team took L.Bell in the 2nd, Murray in the 3rd, and Forsett in the 18th. Does that mean a 3 RB team is ideal? Of course not. Does not mean avoiding a RB in the 1st round is the way to go - since after all, this team did not take a RB in the 1st and won? No.

Last yr Beckham Jr had to be one of the biggest "value" plays for teams that took him since they probably took him 17th-20th round (due to being a rookie that was starting season injured and guaranteed to miss several games). Well what if this year (totally picking a name out of thin air) Maxx Williams, the rookie TE in Balt is the one to just absolutely break through? Chances are no one is taking Maxx Williams in the first 10 rounds. In fact, his current ADP is in the 16th round. After all, he is a) a rookie, b) not even a 1st round NFL pick, c) technically behind Crockett Gillmore. So there is no reason to take him in the 5th.

But what if, hypothetically, he breaks through in a huge way. Then next yr, people will be thinking how a late TE pick may be key. No! It was THAT late TE specifically that was key.

Hope that makes sense. Just my opinion. Basically, just bc OBJ was the key for many winners in 2014, doesn't mean finding the rookie WR that can be had late is the key this yr. This yr it might be Maxx Williams. Or even not a rookie - just a veteran that returns to form. But either way, saying that 3 TEs is key vs 2 TEs - is sort of missing the point in my opinion.

Anyway, I am not saying people are on the wrong track in analyzing how many to take, when to take them, etc. Just saying the actual player is significantly more important.

A very easy way to look at this: what if the "analyzing" showed that most teams that won took a RB in the 1st round. Well despite Peterson's ADP last yr being 1st round and L.Bell's being 2nd or 3rd - wouldn't you have been better off taking Bell in 2nd as opposed to Peterson in 1st? Obviously! So just bc RB in 1st may seem very important - it is more important who that player is. And while that may seem or sound obvious, I think a lot of people are missing that point. Just pull up MFL10s on Twitter to see how many links to articles you get studying the "optimal" number of each position; or even just looking at the twitter or forum discussions about MFL10 strategies.

I am honestly not ragging on anyone doing this. Just suggesting not to get too caught up in it. If you think starting 3 RBs then 1 WRs was proven to be the "key" to many championship teams (not saying it was, just illustrating the point), how would you have done with this 1-4 last yr: Peterson, M.Ball, D.Martin, C.Patterson?

Meanwhile if not taking a stud RB in the 1st is a losing proposition to most teams, well wouldn't you have been pretty ecstatic if you pulled this from 1-4 last yr (even though it isn't what you were "supposed" to do): Dez, Murray, L.Bell, Foster?

 
Some good points here, but I still think there is plenty of value in looking at roster construction relative to 2014 outcomes. It's pretty much a given that in order to win you need to pick the right players, and generally those guys will be players that outperform their draft position (Forsett, OBJ, Hill, etc). But let's imagine that 100 teams all picked those three players at the same spots last year. If that were the case, some of those teams would score more than others and it seems that some slight differences i roster construction (e.g. 2 QBs rather than 4, or 3 Ds rather than 2) would alter the chances of winning by a few percentage points. If I can gain a 1-3% chance of winning by constructing my roster in a particular way, I'll take that all day, especially if you're playing a bunch of these.

 
plastik said:
Some good points here, but I still think there is plenty of value in looking at roster construction relative to 2014 outcomes. It's pretty much a given that in order to win you need to pick the right players, and generally those guys will be players that outperform their draft position (Forsett, OBJ, Hill, etc). But let's imagine that 100 teams all picked those three players at the same spots last year. If that were the case, some of those teams would score more than others and it seems that some slight differences i roster construction (e.g. 2 QBs rather than 4, or 3 Ds rather than 2) would alter the chances of winning by a few percentage points. If I can gain a 1-3% chance of winning by constructing my roster in a particular way, I'll take that all day, especially if you're playing a bunch of these.
Click to expand...
Agreed. There is definitely some merit in looking at all that. Not suggesting it has no value. Just saying that the way the discussions go on Twitter, you'd think that was the most important aspect to winning an MFL10. And I would love to see more discussion on which late round flyers people are taking and why (ie, who can be a breakout star this yr).

I guess I also believe that lots of strategies can work. For example, I think each of the following is a good approach:

- one early QB (like Wilson in the 6th) with another QB much later (like 15th);

- no early QBs, but two in the 9th - 13th overall range (like Tannehill and Eli; or Brady and Stafford);

- no early QBs, not mid draft QBs, but 3 late (Bridgewater, Flacco, Cutler).

Since all look good to me, I would rather focus on who can push their game to another level. Who will be the guy that can be taken late, that will go a lot earlier next yr?

 
BroadwayG said:
This guy is why I don't post more findings.

P.S. Justin Forsett was only drafted twice in all 900+ leagues last year. His teams finished 10th and 12th.
Click to expand...
Who me? Why? I am not saying there is no value in that stuff. I am just saying I don't think it is the most important part.

If me having a different opinion than you makes you not want to post, then I am confused. Isn't a message board about sharing different opinions?

Sorry if I somehow offended you. Honestly did not mean to.

 
BroadwayG said:
This guy is why I don't post more findings.

P.S. Justin Forsett was only drafted twice in all 900+ leagues last year. His teams finished 10th and 12th.
Click to expand...
And this is why I leave the board for months and months at a time. I never understood people getting offended over someone else having a different opinion.

Did I make fun of your findings? No.

Did I even acknowledge that it has some merit? Yes.

I put an opinion out there. I explained it. Politely and respectfully. I then explained it some more.

So I have no clue what I did wrong here.

 
BroadwayG said:
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
BroadwayG said:
This guy is why I don't post more findings.

P.S. Justin Forsett was only drafted twice in all 900+ leagues last year. His teams finished 10th and 12th.
Click to expand...
Who me? Why? I am not saying there is no value in that stuff. I am just saying I don't think it is the most important part.

If me having a different opinion than you makes you not want to post, then I am confused. Isn't a message board about sharing different opinions?

Sorry if I somehow offended you. Honestly did not mean to.
Click to expand...
Point me to anywhere anyone has said it's the most important part.
Click to expand...
Got it. You're a very literal guy. I am on a football message board and you are taking my words so literally that you don't want to post your findings anymore. Got it.

Years and years ago I used to post in the FBG threads all the time. But there are always those guys that hate when people have a different opinion. Or pick on a single word - out of an entire post. And then jump on that guy. Never ever understood this. I personally know of a couple of FBG staff members that agree with me. They too used to post more, but there was too much jumping on a guy - when it was not even remotely deserved. I bet if you re-read my post with an open mind - you will see I did nothing to remotely deserve getting jumped on. And I did nothing that should offend you from wanting to post your findings.

My apologies if I implied some believed it to be the most important part. I guess I was under that impression since there is a lot more discussion on that sort of stuff than there is on who will be the breakout guys. If for some reason that offended you, my apologies.

 
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Hear-the-Footsteps said:
BroadwayG said:
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
BroadwayG said:
This guy is why I don't post more findings.

P.S. Justin Forsett was only drafted twice in all 900+ leagues last year. His teams finished 10th and 12th.
Click to expand...
Who me? Why? I am not saying there is no value in that stuff. I am just saying I don't think it is the most important part.

If me having a different opinion than you makes you not want to post, then I am confused. Isn't a message board about sharing different opinions?

Sorry if I somehow offended you. Honestly did not mean to.
Click to expand...
Point me to anywhere anyone has said it's the most important part.
Click to expand...
Got it. You're a very literal guy. I am on a football message board and you are taking my words so literally that you don't want to post your findings anymore. Got it.

Years and years ago I used to post in the FBG threads all the time. But there are always those guys that hate when people have a different opinion. Or pick on a single word - out of an entire post. And then jump on that guy. Never ever understood this. I personally know of a couple of FBG staff members that agree with me. They too used to post more, but there was too much jumping on a guy - when it was not even remotely deserved. I bet if you re-read my post with an open mind - you will see I did nothing to remotely deserve getting jumped on. And I did nothing that should offend you from wanting to post your findings.

My apologies if I implied some believed it to be the most important part. I guess I was under that impression since there is a lot more discussion on that sort of stuff than there is on who will be the breakout guys. If for some reason that offended you, my apologies.
Click to expand...
My guess is that since there are plenty of sleeper/bust threads, as well as threads for almost every relevant player, that people feel like it would be double dipping to repost it here, and the conversation has just never naturally flowed in that direction. The 2014 NFL10 roster construction discussion is one that really only fits in this thread, and as a new MFL10 player this year, I found it very interesting. There also has been quite a bit of dissection of current rosters, which gives insight as to who people are taking late, although the discussion hasn't keyed in on that specifically.

 
FF Wiseguy said:
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
BroadwayG said:
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
BroadwayG said:
This guy is why I don't post more findings.

P.S. Justin Forsett was only drafted twice in all 900+ leagues last year. His teams finished 10th and 12th.
Click to expand...
Who me? Why? I am not saying there is no value in that stuff. I am just saying I don't think it is the most important part.

If me having a different opinion than you makes you not want to post, then I am confused. Isn't a message board about sharing different opinions?

Sorry if I somehow offended you. Honestly did not mean to.
Click to expand...
Point me to anywhere anyone has said it's the most important part.
Click to expand...
Got it. You're a very literal guy. I am on a football message board and you are taking my words so literally that you don't want to post your findings anymore. Got it.

Years and years ago I used to post in the FBG threads all the time. But there are always those guys that hate when people have a different opinion. Or pick on a single word - out of an entire post. And then jump on that guy. Never ever understood this. I personally know of a couple of FBG staff members that agree with me. They too used to post more, but there was too much jumping on a guy - when it was not even remotely deserved. I bet if you re-read my post with an open mind - you will see I did nothing to remotely deserve getting jumped on. And I did nothing that should offend you from wanting to post your findings.

My apologies if I implied some believed it to be the most important part. I guess I was under that impression since there is a lot more discussion on that sort of stuff than there is on who will be the breakout guys. If for some reason that offended you, my apologies.
Click to expand...
My guess is that since there are plenty of sleeper/bust threads, as well as threads for almost every relevant player, that people feel like it would be double dipping to repost it here, and the conversation has just never naturally flowed in that direction. The 2014 NFL10 roster construction discussion is one that really only fits in this thread, and as a new MFL10 player this year, I found it very interesting. There also has been quite a bit of dissection of current rosters, which gives insight as to who people are taking late, although the discussion hasn't keyed in on that specifically.
Click to expand...
I find it very interesting too (ie, roster construction type issues). All I did (and feel free to re-read it) - is say it has some merit, but perhaps might not be as important as picking the "right" players.

And sure, there is some discussion on which players in other threads as you just mentioned. But that is different in standard re-draft leagues. MFL10s are best ball. You have that roster all season. There is no dropping a guy bc he stinks. In standard redraft leagues, you can drop a guy. Heck you can nab a potential sleeper a round or two early bc if it does not work out - you drop him. In MFL10s, you can't do that. You are stuck with that guy.

So an interesting topic within this thread, just in my opinion, would be about the "right" players to go for. For instance, are you better off taking a swing for the fences player who can be a breakout star, but can also easily be a nothing and bust? Or are you better off taking a guy in those late rounds that does not have the potential to hit the fences, but definitely won't be a zero in the lineup. Maybe he goes for 48-650-4. Nothing terribly exciting there. And on the weeks of 0-2 receptions for 0-40 yards and no TDs, that won't make your starting lineup. But on the occasional weeks of 5-112-1 - that does make your lineup.

Since this is a thread about MFL10s, I would think there should be all of that. Meaning optimal roster construction, along with "breakout" candidates, as well as some discussion on going for the HR vs the nice floor guys who should find their way into your lineup once in a while. All of that belongs in this thread. And to jump on a guy for bringing up a new MFL point in an MFL thread seems ridiculous.

 
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Hear-the-Footsteps said:
I find it very interesting too (ie, roster construction type issues). All I did (and feel free to re-read it) - is say it has some merit, but perhaps might not be as important as picking the "right" players.

And sure, there is some discussion on which players in other threads as you just mentioned. But that is different in standard re-draft leagues. MFL10s are best ball. You have that roster all season. There is no dropping a guy bc he stinks. In standard redraft leagues, you can drop a guy. Heck you can nab a potential sleeper a round or two early bc if it does not work out - you drop him. In MFL10s, you can't do that. You are stuck with that guy.

So an interesting topic within this thread, just in my opinion, would be about the "right" players to go for. For instance, are you better off taking a swing for the fences player who can be a breakout star, but can also easily be a nothing and bust? Or are you better off taking a guy in those late rounds that does not have the potential to hit the fences, but definitely won't be a zero in the lineup. Maybe he goes for 48-650-4. Nothing terribly exciting there. And on the weeks of 0-2 receptions for 0-40 yards and no TDs, that won't make your starting lineup. But on the occasional weeks of 5-112-1 - that does make your lineup.

Since this is a thread about MFL10s, I would think there should be all of that. Meaning optimal roster construction, along with "breakout" candidates, as well as some discussion on going for the HR vs the nice floor guys who should find their way into your lineup once in a while. All of that belongs in this thread. And to jump on a guy for bringing up a new MFL point in an MFL thread seems ridiculous.
Click to expand...
Yes, but you started your post off saying the analysis provided was "for the most part missing the point." If I had put in the work and then read that post, I'd probably take offense to it, too. If you wanted to move the discussion towards discussing late round strategy, you could have just started discussing late round strategy. As stated above, I don't think anyone was under the impression that MFL10 success was primarily determined by emulating last year's winning roster construction.

Also, you did say people would probably jump on you for your post, and that's fine. :D

Anyways, sorry to digress even further. If talking about roster construction is unproductive, talking about talking about roster construction is extremely unproductive.

Excited to see Rd 2 get underway.

 
FF Wiseguy said:
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
BroadwayG said:
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
BroadwayG said:
This guy is why I don't post more findings.

P.S. Justin Forsett was only drafted twice in all 900+ leagues last year. His teams finished 10th and 12th.
Click to expand...
Who me? Why? I am not saying there is no value in that stuff. I am just saying I don't think it is the most important part.

If me having a different opinion than you makes you not want to post, then I am confused. Isn't a message board about sharing different opinions?

Sorry if I somehow offended you. Honestly did not mean to.
Click to expand...
Point me to anywhere anyone has said it's the most important part.
Click to expand...
Got it. You're a very literal guy. I am on a football message board and you are taking my words so literally that you don't want to post your findings anymore. Got it.

Years and years ago I used to post in the FBG threads all the time. But there are always those guys that hate when people have a different opinion. Or pick on a single word - out of an entire post. And then jump on that guy. Never ever understood this. I personally know of a couple of FBG staff members that agree with me. They too used to post more, but there was too much jumping on a guy - when it was not even remotely deserved. I bet if you re-read my post with an open mind - you will see I did nothing to remotely deserve getting jumped on. And I did nothing that should offend you from wanting to post your findings.

My apologies if I implied some believed it to be the most important part. I guess I was under that impression since there is a lot more discussion on that sort of stuff than there is on who will be the breakout guys. If for some reason that offended you, my apologies.
Click to expand...
My guess is that since there are plenty of sleeper/bust threads, as well as threads for almost every relevant player, that people feel like it would be double dipping to repost it here, and the conversation has just never naturally flowed in that direction. The 2014 NFL10 roster construction discussion is one that really only fits in this thread, and as a new MFL10 player this year, I found it very interesting. There also has been quite a bit of dissection of current rosters, which gives insight as to who people are taking late, although the discussion hasn't keyed in on that specifically.
Click to expand...
By the way, the irony of what you wrote about how this thread/conversation has just not ever naturally flowed in the direction of player talk is wrong. The very first post of the entire thread - by the guy that started the thread - was asking about a player. He was talking about Gronk as a good move with the first overall pick.

Yet somehow I suggested player evaluation in an MFL is pretty important too and Bway got mad at me for it. Not making that up or starting anything. It's all right there above this.

 
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
I have noticed there is a lot of talk in this thread regarding studying last yr's MFL10s - what worked and what did not.
Click to expand...
I did not play MFLxx's last year, but my understanding is that there was a kicker roster spot that has been removed. This means that last year data is less relevant. If you took 3 kickers and 3 defenses last year, you were shooting yourself in the foot in terms of depth at the other positions. This year, you will be adding many more points to your weekly balance by adding a 3rd D in the 19th or 20th round and flexing the extra spot to a position of weakness.

 
FF Wiseguy said:
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
I find it very interesting too (ie, roster construction type issues). All I did (and feel free to re-read it) - is say it has some merit, but perhaps might not be as important as picking the "right" players.

And sure, there is some discussion on which players in other threads as you just mentioned. But that is different in standard re-draft leagues. MFL10s are best ball. You have that roster all season. There is no dropping a guy bc he stinks. In standard redraft leagues, you can drop a guy. Heck you can nab a potential sleeper a round or two early bc if it does not work out - you drop him. In MFL10s, you can't do that. You are stuck with that guy.

So an interesting topic within this thread, just in my opinion, would be about the "right" players to go for. For instance, are you better off taking a swing for the fences player who can be a breakout star, but can also easily be a nothing and bust? Or are you better off taking a guy in those late rounds that does not have the potential to hit the fences, but definitely won't be a zero in the lineup. Maybe he goes for 48-650-4. Nothing terribly exciting there. And on the weeks of 0-2 receptions for 0-40 yards and no TDs, that won't make your starting lineup. But on the occasional weeks of 5-112-1 - that does make your lineup.

Since this is a thread about MFL10s, I would think there should be all of that. Meaning optimal roster construction, along with "breakout" candidates, as well as some discussion on going for the HR vs the nice floor guys who should find their way into your lineup once in a while. All of that belongs in this thread. And to jump on a guy for bringing up a new MFL point in an MFL thread seems ridiculous.
Click to expand...
Yes, but you started your post off saying the analysis provided was "for the most part missing the point." If I had put in the work and then read that post, I'd probably take offense to it, too. If you wanted to move the discussion towards discussing late round strategy, you could have just started discussing late round strategy. As stated above, I don't think anyone was under the impression that MFL10 success was primarily determined by emulating last year's winning roster construction.

Also, you did say people would probably jump on you for your post, and that's fine. :D

Anyways, sorry to digress even further. If talking about roster construction is unproductive, talking about talking about roster construction is extremely unproductive.

Excited to see Rd 2 get underway.
Click to expand...
1) "For the most part missing the point." Yes, I stand by that. It is my opinion. It is formulated on all things football - having been in many MFL10s. It was not presented rudely. It was not presented in a way to pick a fight. It was not focused on any one person as several have been talking about optimal roster construction. So I expressed an opinion. Still not seeing the big deal.

2) Yes, I did say people would jump on me for it. I know how these boards work. And I have had off-board discussions with several others from these threads (including staff) that used to post a lot more bc of the recent trend over the years of "jumping" on a guy. There used to be a ton more threads and a ton more active posters. Many have noticed the "jump" on him bit even though the guy getting jumped on did not necessarily do a single thing wrong.

3) But completely agree that talking about talking about it is an even bigger waste. And I never meant for that to happen when I posted about picking players over picking strategy or a specific roster. Never.

 
Touchdown There said:
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
I have noticed there is a lot of talk in this thread regarding studying last yr's MFL10s - what worked and what did not.
Click to expand...
I did not play MFLxx's last year, but my understanding is that there was a kicker roster spot that has been removed. This means that last year data is less relevant. If you took 3 kickers and 3 defenses last year, you were shooting yourself in the foot in terms of depth at the other positions. This year, you will be adding many more points to your weekly balance by adding a 3rd D in the 19th or 20th round and flexing the extra spot to a position of weakness.
Click to expand...
Great point. There were probably some who took Ks a little too early last yr - when other decent Qs/Rs/Ws/Ts were still available. Meanwhile there were probably some that got burned by waiting til the very last round (ie, guy ends up not being the true kicker of the team since it was like the 30th K drafted).

Either way - that has to effect the data. (Disclaimer: Maybe it does not affect it by a ton. So let me repeat: this is NOT the most important thing.) But clearly that change does affect numerous things this yr when analyzing the data. Now you have an extra shot at a flyer or breakout candidate. Or can triple up on a D when you would not have last yr. Who knows?!

 
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Six spots left in the second attempt. Let's fill it up and get rolling.

Password: footballguys2

Once it's filled I will let you all in on one off my favorite late round guys. Hint: It's Nick Toon

 
FF Wiseguy said:
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
BroadwayG said:
Hear-the-Footsteps said:
BroadwayG said:
This guy is why I don't post more findings.

P.S. Justin Forsett was only drafted twice in all 900+ leagues last year. His teams finished 10th and 12th.
Click to expand...
Who me? Why? I am not saying there is no value in that stuff. I am just saying I don't think it is the most important part.If me having a different opinion than you makes you not want to post, then I am confused. Isn't a message board about sharing different opinions?

Sorry if I somehow offended you. Honestly did not mean to.
Click to expand...
Point me to anywhere anyone has said it's the most important part.
Click to expand...
Got it. You're a very literal guy. I am on a football message board and you are taking my words so literally that you don't want to post your findings anymore. Got it.Years and years ago I used to post in the FBG threads all the time. But there are always those guys that hate when people have a different opinion. Or pick on a single word - out of an entire post. And then jump on that guy. Never ever understood this. I personally know of a couple of FBG staff members that agree with me. They too used to post more, but there was too much jumping on a guy - when it was not even remotely deserved. I bet if you re-read my post with an open mind - you will see I did nothing to remotely deserve getting jumped on. And I did nothing that should offend you from wanting to post your findings.

My apologies if I implied some believed it to be the most important part. I guess I was under that impression since there is a lot more discussion on that sort of stuff than there is on who will be the breakout guys. If for some reason that offended you, my apologies.
Click to expand...
My guess is that since there are plenty of sleeper/bust threads, as well as threads for almost every relevant player, that people feel like it would be double dipping to repost it here, and the conversation has just never naturally flowed in that direction. The 2014 NFL10 roster construction discussion is one that really only fits in this thread, and as a new MFL10 player this year, I found it very interesting. There also has been quite a bit of dissection of current rosters, which gives insight as to who people are taking late, although the discussion hasn't keyed in on that specifically.
Click to expand...
This. I'm in about 30 MFL10s so far, so I'm less concerned about individual players that might break out as I am tracking my exposures to players and making sure to diversify as much as possible. At this point I have almost every player in the top 25 QBs (except Brees and Peyton), evey RB in the top 55 (except McCoy and Ajayi), every WR in the top 70 with a few exceptions, every TE in the top 30 or so, and every D except TEN and WAS. At this point there are only about 20 players I have in more than 3 leagues. I basically hunt for value, construct my roster according to who falls to me, and try to be as flexible as possible. I'll take pretty much anyone if the spot is right. So in this light, you can see how I pretty much have every 'sleeper' somewhere, and how it would be important not to have to much exposure to any particular player. Some exceptions for me have been Tannehill (have him in 6, loaded up on him when he was in the 11th-13th, but now he's going as early as the 8th), I also have a bunch of a few particular late round WRs (one of them I have in 10 leagues but will withhold for now as we have a draft about to start in here).

 
plastik said:
BroadwayG disappeared from the thread for me... Did this happen for anyone else? Did I get ignored?
Click to expand...
Not just for you. He pulled all his posts.

I had an opinion about how roster configuration based off of previous winners was not the most important thing to look at, even though it seems to be a big focus in this thread. I mentioned how the right players - finding value, potential breakout guys (like last yr's Forsett or OBJ), and strategy of when to take certain players is all important as well.

He got upset with me. (You can still see it as most of it has been quoted.) Literally said that this was why he did not post more findings.

I explained myself - as nicely, respectfully, and rationally as possible (you can see this too above). Even apologized (even though if you followed along I did not remotely have to) if my opinions offended him.

At some point he decided to take down his posts.

That's the timeline for you in a nutshell.

 
Wow, that sucks. I really appreciated his posting those findings. They were interesting at worst and potentially very helpful at best.

It strikes me as being a bit overly sensitive, but I suppose he just felt his posts were not being appreciated. I wouldn't be surprised if he had internally debated sharing his findings to begin with as posting them here, in at least some sense, could 'help the competition.' Maybe this last exchange tipped him back the other way. I do hope he changes his mind and still participates in the conversation moving forward.

 
Touchdown There said:
RobMonge said:
Touchdown There said:
RobMonge said:
You've illustrated the pitfalls of not knowing how to construct a best ball roster perfectly - I see people in my MFLs making these kinds of mistakes all the time, and it's pretty much the defining element of why these are profitable at scale (you're actually only competing with 8 or 9 teams, not the full 11).
Click to expand...
According to RobMonge, I have illustrated such a bad roster construction that I am not even in competition. Top half finish is a fair wager for this kind of non-sense.
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I'm definitely interested in a wager here, but you finishing in the top half of the league is not the one as I don't have any confidence in random people's ability to draft best ball. I can post some (or maybe even all) of my rosters - you can pick from them and we can go head to head, or perhaps I could lay odds that you won't 1st/2nd this league. I'm also open to other suggestions, but I'm not laying even money on your team to finish in the top HALF of the league. That's just ridiculous, no matter how poorly I think your team is constructed.
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What is ridiculous is your post that my roster "illustrates the pitfalls of not knowing how to construct a best ball roster perfectly". You are eluding to me basically contributing to the rest of the league with no shot. If you want to clarify your comment, you are welcome to.

I also never said that I think my team is "poorly constructed". I think it is well constructed, with crappy RBs. All of the other positions are above average with allocations that I believe in (3 QBs if you do not have Rodgers or Luck and 3 defenses).

I may take you up on one of your offers. PM me your rosters. No need to fill up this thread with our side wager.
Click to expand...
PM sent yesterday at 4 PM, you haven't so much as looked at it. What gives?

 
I dumped the results of last year defensive points for weeks 1-16 into a table called dbo.Defense2014. I then wrote a script to randomly generate defense combinations and inserted the top score from the combination into a global temp table (1000 iterations). From there I selected the averages.

Code: 
1 Defense Ave	7	7	8	8	9	7	7	8	8	9	8	8	9	9	9	82 Defenses Ave	11	11	12	11	12	11	9	11	10	13	12	12	13	13	12	113 Defenses Ave	13	13	14	13	14	13	11	13	12	15	13	13	16	15	14	134 Defenses Ave	14	14	15	15	15	14	12	15	13	17	14	15	18	17	15	14
Code: 
CREATE TABLE ##1D ([Week1] [smallint],	[Week2] [smallint],	[Week3] [smallint],	[Week4] [smallint],	[Week5] [smallint],	[Week6] [smallint],	[Week7] [smallint],	[Week8] [smallint],	[Week9] [smallint],	[Week10] [smallint],	[Week11] [smallint],	[Week12] [smallint],	[Week13] [smallint],	[Week14] [smallint],	[Week15] [smallint],	[Week16] [smallint]);CREATE TABLE ##2D ([Week1] [smallint],	[Week2] [smallint],	[Week3] [smallint],	[Week4] [smallint],	[Week5] [smallint],	[Week6] [smallint],	[Week7] [smallint],	[Week8] [smallint],	[Week9] [smallint],	[Week10] [smallint],	[Week11] [smallint],	[Week12] [smallint],	[Week13] [smallint],	[Week14] [smallint],	[Week15] [smallint],	[Week16] [smallint]);CREATE TABLE ##3D ([Week1] [smallint],	[Week2] [smallint],	[Week3] [smallint],	[Week4] [smallint],	[Week5] [smallint],	[Week6] [smallint],	[Week7] [smallint],	[Week8] [smallint],	[Week9] [smallint],	[Week10] [smallint],	[Week11] [smallint],	[Week12] [smallint],	[Week13] [smallint],	[Week14] [smallint],	[Week15] [smallint],	[Week16] [smallint]);CREATE TABLE ##4D ([Week1] [smallint],	[Week2] [smallint],	[Week3] [smallint],	[Week4] [smallint],	[Week5] [smallint],	[Week6] [smallint],	[Week7] [smallint],	[Week8] [smallint],	[Week9] [smallint],	[Week10] [smallint],	[Week11] [smallint],	[Week12] [smallint],	[Week13] [smallint],	[Week14] [smallint],	[Week15] [smallint],	[Week16] [smallint]);DECLARE @Count INTSET @Count = 0WHILE @Count < 1000BEGINWITH RandomD AS (SELECT TOP 1 [Defense]      ,[Week1]      ,[Week2]      ,[Week3]      ,[Week4]      ,[Week5]      ,[Week6]      ,[Week7]      ,[Week8]      ,[Week9]      ,[Week10]      ,[Week11]      ,[Week12]      ,[Week13]      ,[Week14]      ,[Week15]      ,[Week16]FROM [dbo].[Defense2014]ORDER BY NEWID())INSERT INTO ##1DSELECT MAX(Week1)	,MAX(Week2)	,MAX([Week3])	,MAX([Week4])	,MAX([Week5])	,MAX([Week6])	,MAX([Week7])	,MAX([Week8])	,MAX([Week9])	,MAX([Week10])	,MAX([Week11])	,MAX([Week12])	,MAX([Week13])	,MAX([Week14])	,MAX([Week15])	,MAX([Week16])FROM RandomD;WITH Random2 AS (SELECT TOP 2 [Defense]      ,[Week1]      ,[Week2]      ,[Week3]      ,[Week4]      ,[Week5]      ,[Week6]      ,[Week7]      ,[Week8]      ,[Week9]      ,[Week10]      ,[Week11]      ,[Week12]      ,[Week13]      ,[Week14]      ,[Week15]      ,[Week16]FROM [dbo].[Defense2014]ORDER BY NEWID())INSERT INTO ##2DSELECT MAX(Week1)	,MAX(Week2)	,MAX([Week3])	,MAX([Week4])	,MAX([Week5])	,MAX([Week6])	,MAX([Week7])	,MAX([Week8])	,MAX([Week9])	,MAX([Week10])	,MAX([Week11])	,MAX([Week12])	,MAX([Week13])	,MAX([Week14])	,MAX([Week15])	,MAX([Week16])FROM Random2;WITH Random3 AS (SELECT TOP 3 [Defense]      ,[Week1]      ,[Week2]      ,[Week3]      ,[Week4]      ,[Week5]      ,[Week6]      ,[Week7]      ,[Week8]      ,[Week9]      ,[Week10]      ,[Week11]      ,[Week12]      ,[Week13]      ,[Week14]      ,[Week15]      ,[Week16]FROM [dbo].[Defense2014]ORDER BY NEWID())INSERT INTO ##3DSELECT MAX(Week1)	,MAX(Week2)	,MAX([Week3])	,MAX([Week4])	,MAX([Week5])	,MAX([Week6])	,MAX([Week7])	,MAX([Week8])	,MAX([Week9])	,MAX([Week10])	,MAX([Week11])	,MAX([Week12])	,MAX([Week13])	,MAX([Week14])	,MAX([Week15])	,MAX([Week16])FROM Random3;WITH Random4 AS (SELECT TOP 4 [Defense]      ,[Week1]      ,[Week2]      ,[Week3]      ,[Week4]      ,[Week5]      ,[Week6]      ,[Week7]      ,[Week8]      ,[Week9]      ,[Week10]      ,[Week11]      ,[Week12]      ,[Week13]      ,[Week14]      ,[Week15]      ,[Week16]FROM [dbo].[Defense2014]ORDER BY NEWID())INSERT INTO ##4DSELECT MAX(Week1)	,MAX(Week2)	,MAX([Week3])	,MAX([Week4])	,MAX([Week5])	,MAX([Week6])	,MAX([Week7])	,MAX([Week8])	,MAX([Week9])	,MAX([Week10])	,MAX([Week11])	,MAX([Week12])	,MAX([Week13])	,MAX([Week14])	,MAX([Week15])	,MAX([Week16])FROM Random4;SET @Count = @Count + 1;END SELECT AVG(Week1)	,AVG(Week2)	,AVG([Week3])	,AVG([Week4])	,AVG([Week5])	,AVG([Week6])	,AVG([Week7])	,AVG([Week8])	,AVG([Week9])	,AVG([Week10])	,AVG([Week11])	,AVG([Week12])	,AVG([Week13])	,AVG([Week14])	,AVG([Week15])	,AVG([Week16])FROM ##1D;SELECT AVG(Week1)	,AVG(Week2)	,AVG([Week3])	,AVG([Week4])	,AVG([Week5])	,AVG([Week6])	,AVG([Week7])	,AVG([Week8])	,AVG([Week9])	,AVG([Week10])	,AVG([Week11])	,AVG([Week12])	,AVG([Week13])	,AVG([Week14])	,AVG([Week15])	,AVG([Week16])FROM ##2D;SELECT AVG(Week1)	,AVG(Week2)	,AVG([Week3])	,AVG([Week4])	,AVG([Week5])	,AVG([Week6])	,AVG([Week7])	,AVG([Week8])	,AVG([Week9])	,AVG([Week10])	,AVG([Week11])	,AVG([Week12])	,AVG([Week13])	,AVG([Week14])	,AVG([Week15])	,AVG([Week16])FROM ##3D;SELECT AVG(Week1)	,AVG(Week2)	,AVG([Week3])	,AVG([Week4])	,AVG([Week5])	,AVG([Week6])	,AVG([Week7])	,AVG([Week8])	,AVG([Week9])	,AVG([Week10])	,AVG([Week11])	,AVG([Week12])	,AVG([Week13])	,AVG([Week14])	,AVG([Week15])	,AVG([Week16])FROM ##4D;DROP TABLE ##1D;DROP TABLE ##2D;DROP TABLE ##3D;DROP TABLE ##4D;
 
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