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Best Ball (MFL10s, DRAFT, etc.) (2 Viewers)

topman said:
Is there any history of stats on winning teams based off of multiple WRs from one team.

I currently have Keenan Allen and Jarvis Landry on my team.

It is getting into of the 11th round and I am wondering if I hedge these 2 with Stevie Johnson and Kenny Stills as my 5th and 6th WR is a good move? Handcuff but also players that should see good action any given week.
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It was a great strategy in Phenoms when you had 30 roster spots, won me money.... well, until that last year! But I think the 20 roster spots makes it more rough in these leagues because of bye weeks and injuries.

 
Also, you have to be careful because in the example you used I can easily see a scenario where IF Landry got hurt, Jennings sees a big spike in targets and you end up with Parker/Cameron/Jennings getting all the targets and you may end up with little output from two WR spots so not really a handcuff. But I am more bearish on Stills than most.

Lastly, you also run the risk of a QB injury sinking(or at least hobbling) two of your WR's instead of just one.

None of that is a deal breaker when you have 10 WR's, but when you only have 6-7 it becomes a much bigger factor imo. I really miss those 30 team leagues. Deeper strategy imo and you had to know the league much better.

 
I did the half price 28 round draft at FFPC, definitely makes things more interesting, but the rake is simply too much.

 
Borden said:
Bell's reduction is great news for me. I am heavily invested in him.

For those of you who didn't have him as your #1 overall, has the reduction changed anything for you?
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I'm glad I went with Gronk at 1.01 when I did, and Bell's reduction wouldn't have changed that decision.

That said, if I were drafting now and looking at the junk available at RB on the 2/3 turn, I'd go with Bell easily over Gronk. RBs have really risen up the ADP.

 
I've been really disappointed with the value on board for my 6.11 thru 11.02 picks. I've found much better options in the public MFL leagues than I have in this one. Keep up the good works guys.

 
Penguin said:
I've been really disappointed with the value on board for my 6.11 thru 11.02 picks. I've found much better options in the public MFL leagues than I have in this one. Keep up the good works guys.
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Yeah, the WR depth got swallowed up much faster than I'm used to, so in the 7th and 8th I ended up taking my 4th and 5th RBs... Seemed to me like the best value on the board. There were two teams that didn't take their first RB until the 6th, and a few other teams that really waited on RB depth also.

As far as team strength, not many really stand out to me right now. Broadway's squad looks strong again, but the QB (with Brady's suspension) and TE situation are question marks as of yet. Bloom looks good, except for RB, where he reached slightly on Abdullah and didn't take a 3rd until Sproles in the 10th. I actually think Marauders could work out really nicely if Randle hits, though I wouldn't have taken either Bennett (with Graham already) or Cruz Where he did, and it would have been better to wait longer on a backup QB, though granted Romo was good value in the 10th, a round below his ADP.

 
Here is what I ended up with out of the 3 hole.

Qb -- p.manning, Ryan

Rb -- Peterson, Ingram, yeldon, vereen, d. Robinson

Wr -- green, Allen, c. Johnson, Brown, stills, Lee, huff, woods

Te -- gates, clay, Davis

Def -- jets, patriots

 
plastik said:
Penguin said:
I've been really disappointed with the value on board for my 6.11 thru 11.02 picks. I've found much better options in the public MFL leagues than I have in this one. Keep up the good works guys.
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Yeah, the WR depth got swallowed up much faster than I'm used to, so in the 7th and 8th I ended up taking my 4th and 5th RBs... Seemed to me like the best value on the board. There were two teams that didn't take their first RB until the 6th, and a few other teams that really waited on RB depth also. As far as team strength, not many really stand out to me right now. Broadway's squad looks strong again, but the QB (with Brady's suspension) and TE situation are question marks as of yet. Bloom looks good, except for RB, where he reached slightly on Abdullah and didn't take a 3rd until Sproles in the 10th. I actually think Marauders could work out really nicely if Randle hits, though I wouldn't have taken either Bennett (with Graham already) or Cruz Where he did, and it would have been better to wait longer on a backup QB, though granted Romo was good value in the 10th, a round below his ADP.
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I would have to pick Topman as my favorite team at this point. Solid all around and if he can make a few good flyer shots on the back nine, he's golden.

 
Borden said:
plastik said:
Penguin said:
I've been really disappointed with the value on board for my 6.11 thru 11.02 picks. I've found much better options in the public MFL leagues than I have in this one. Keep up the good works guys.
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Yeah, the WR depth got swallowed up much faster than I'm used to, so in the 7th and 8th I ended up taking my 4th and 5th RBs... Seemed to me like the best value on the board. There were two teams that didn't take their first RB until the 6th, and a few other teams that really waited on RB depth also. As far as team strength, not many really stand out to me right now. Broadway's squad looks strong again, but the QB (with Brady's suspension) and TE situation are question marks as of yet. Bloom looks good, except for RB, where he reached slightly on Abdullah and didn't take a 3rd until Sproles in the 10th. I actually think Marauders could work out really nicely if Randle hits, though I wouldn't have taken either Bennett (with Graham already) or Cruz Where he did, and it would have been better to wait longer on a backup QB, though granted Romo was good value in the 10th, a round below his ADP.
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I would have to pick Topman as my favorite team at this point. Solid all around and if he can make a few good flyer shots on the back nine, he's golden.
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His WRs are not at all my taste. RBs are good with a lot of upside though... Hyde in the 5th was nuts.

 
plastik said:
Penguin said:
I've been really disappointed with the value on board for my 6.11 thru 11.02 picks. I've found much better options in the public MFL leagues than I have in this one. Keep up the good works guys.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the WR depth got swallowed up much faster than I'm used to, so in the 7th and 8th I ended up taking my 4th and 5th RBs... Seemed to me like the best value on the board. There were two teams that didn't take their first RB until the 6th, and a few other teams that really waited on RB depth also.

As far as team strength, not many really stand out to me right now. Broadway's squad looks strong again, but the QB (with Brady's suspension) and TE situation are question marks as of yet. Bloom looks good, except for RB, where he reached slightly on Abdullah and didn't take a 3rd until Sproles in the 10th. I actually think Marauders could work out really nicely if Randle hits, though I wouldn't have taken either Bennett (with Graham already) or Cruz Where he did, and it would have been better to wait longer on a backup QB, though granted Romo was good value in the 10th, a round below his ADP.
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Doesn't really seem to stray too far off from most of the MFLs I've been in. The only exception being I haven't seen some of the elite WRs fall that deep into the 2nd round. The rosters are definitely impressive as a whole. Took a quick glance expecting to see one that stands out but saw quite a few that I liked. Should be a competitive league.

 
I went boom or bust on mine. I have like a 75 percent chance of being in the bottom 3 or I will lap the field.

 
plastik said:
Penguin said:
I've been really disappointed with the value on board for my 6.11 thru 11.02 picks. I've found much better options in the public MFL leagues than I have in this one. Keep up the good works guys.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the WR depth got swallowed up much faster than I'm used to, so in the 7th and 8th I ended up taking my 4th and 5th RBs... Seemed to me like the best value on the board. There were two teams that didn't take their first RB until the 6th, and a few other teams that really waited on RB depth also. As far as team strength, not many really stand out to me right now. Broadway's squad looks strong again, but the QB (with Brady's suspension) and TE situation are question marks as of yet. Bloom looks good, except for RB, where he reached slightly on Abdullah and didn't take a 3rd until Sproles in the 10th. I actually think Marauders could work out really nicely if Randle hits, though I wouldn't have taken either Bennett (with Graham already) or Cruz Where he did, and it would have been better to wait longer on a backup QB, though granted Romo was good value in the 10th, a round below his ADP.
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I would have to pick Topman as my favorite team at this point. Solid all around and if he can make a few good flyer shots on the back nine, he's golden.

 
Screwed up by doing my pre-draft pick list too far out. Ended up picking the Bills and Seahawks. Whoops.

 
Not my greatest draft after the Spiller pick, but not terrible. I could have gone Foster/Julio instead of ODB/Spiller and it would've looked a little better on paper.

 
Borden said:
Screwed up by doing my pre-draft pick list too far out. Ended up picking the Bills and Seahawks. Whoops.
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That's the toughest part about pre-drafting. You can only really pre-draft one pick at a time unless your picks are back to back.

 
BroadwayG said:
Hawkeye21 said:
Borden said:
Screwed up by doing my pre-draft pick list too far out. Ended up picking the Bills and Seahawks. Whoops.
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That's the toughest part about pre-drafting. You can only really pre-draft one pick at a time unless your picks are back to back.
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Can't really do it then either.
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I never really had any issues with it. When I would check the draft and saw that my pick was coming up in 5 turns I would make sure I would put in the top 5 players I was interested in. I was guaranteed to get one of them.

 
I've never had any issues either but the players I had before and in between the defenses were taken.

I pre-drafted 20 picks out because I was on night shift. I also thought at least two would be taken in those pick (had Bills, Texans, Seahawks qued in that order).

 
Also, this FBG draft definitely carries a much lower EV than the order 10s I've done.

Daisy and Broadway have messed up 3 or 4 of my round targets that are usually locks for me. I've had a difficult time reading the draft flow. I feel like I've been playing catch up since Broadway took Boldin on me in the 8th.

 
This is easily the worst draft as far as value for me that I can remember. I was this close || to taking two defenses at the 11/12 turn because I hated everything available. And it hasn't gotten any better.

 
You can definitely tell the difference when you have a group of knowledgeable drafters and when you have a group of people doing their first MFL 10.

 
BroadwayG said:
This is easily the worst draft as far as value for me that I can remember. I was this close || to taking two defenses at the 11/12 turn because I hated everything available. And it hasn't gotten any better.
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I felt that way since the 8th round.

 
topman said:
You can definitely tell the difference when you have a group of knowledgeable drafters and when you have a group of people doing their first MFL 10.
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That's a nice way to phrase it. The negative way to say it is that when you get a bunch of people who are engaging in groupthink, things are very predictable.

We have a tendency at FBG to be very conservative and laugh at anyone whose rankings diverge heavily from the FBG rankings. When drafting with those people, we think we get great bargains, but it's not always crazy for some guy to take (as a recent example from this thread) Joseph Randle way before we would.

I've done a lot of drafts with FBGs over the years, and there are never any values... unless you diverge from the FBG rankings. If I have a guy projected as a second round value and he's going in the 5th via worldwide ADP, I might take him in the 3rd since there's a lot of variability, and I don't want to miss out on him. But if I'm drafting with all FBGs and FBG has him projected as a 5th round guy, I can wait until the 4th to take him. When you know the rankings everyone's using as a starting point, you can be a little more aggressive and still get the guys you believe in more than the consensus.

One of the weird things is that it seems like FBGs mostly start from Dodds' rankings or the FBG average rankings. There seems to be more diversity in the FBG staff's rankings than there is in the subscribers. It would be interesting to pick a staffer whose rankings you like (call it Tremblay) and draft from his rankings in a draft where everyone's using Dodds or average.

But, yeah, I get frustrated in FBG drafts because for 95% of players, I like Dodds' projections. He's just really good.

 
Tick said:
topman said:
You can definitely tell the difference when you have a group of knowledgeable drafters and when you have a group of people doing their first MFL 10.
Click to expand...
That's a nice way to phrase it. The negative way to say it is that when you get a bunch of people who are engaging in groupthink, things are very predictable.We have a tendency at FBG to be very conservative and laugh at anyone whose rankings diverge heavily from the FBG rankings. When drafting with those people, we think we get great bargains, but it's not always crazy for some guy to take (as a recent example from this thread) Joseph Randle way before we would.

I've done a lot of drafts with FBGs over the years, and there are never any values... unless you diverge from the FBG rankings. If I have a guy projected as a second round value and he's going in the 5th via worldwide ADP, I might take him in the 3rd since there's a lot of variability, and I don't want to miss out on him. But if I'm drafting with all FBGs and FBG has him projected as a 5th round guy, I can wait until the 4th to take him. When you know the rankings everyone's using as a starting point, you can be a little more aggressive and still get the guys you believe in more than the consensus.

One of the weird things is that it seems like FBGs mostly start from Dodds' rankings or the FBG average rankings. There seems to be more diversity in the FBG staff's rankings than there is in the subscribers. It would be interesting to pick a staffer whose rankings you like (call it Tremblay) and draft from his rankings in a draft where everyone's using Dodds or average.

But, yeah, I get frustrated in FBG drafts because for 95% of players, I like Dodds' projections. He's just really good.
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I am definitely getting in a rut in these things, that's why I thought the auction would be a fun twist. When you guys are finished with this draft it would be fun to get a $10 acution-and-go best ball started.

 
msudaisy26 said:
BroadwayG said:
This is easily the worst draft as far as value for me that I can remember. I was this close || to taking two defenses at the 11/12 turn because I hated everything available. And it hasn't gotten any better.
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I felt that way since the 8th round.
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Tick said:
topman said:
You can definitely tell the difference when you have a group of knowledgeable drafters and when you have a group of people doing their first MFL 10.
Click to expand...
That's a nice way to phrase it. The negative way to say it is that when you get a bunch of people who are engaging in groupthink, things are very predictable.

We have a tendency at FBG to be very conservative and laugh at anyone whose rankings diverge heavily from the FBG rankings. When drafting with those people, we think we get great bargains, but it's not always crazy for some guy to take (as a recent example from this thread) Joseph Randle way before we would.

I've done a lot of drafts with FBGs over the years, and there are never any values... unless you diverge from the FBG rankings. If I have a guy projected as a second round value and he's going in the 5th via worldwide ADP, I might take him in the 3rd since there's a lot of variability, and I don't want to miss out on him. But if I'm drafting with all FBGs and FBG has him projected as a 5th round guy, I can wait until the 4th to take him. When you know the rankings everyone's using as a starting point, you can be a little more aggressive and still get the guys you believe in more than the consensus.

One of the weird things is that it seems like FBGs mostly start from Dodds' rankings or the FBG average rankings. There seems to be more diversity in the FBG staff's rankings than there is in the subscribers. It would be interesting to pick a staffer whose rankings you like (call it Tremblay) and draft from his rankings in a draft where everyone's using Dodds or average.

But, yeah, I get frustrated in FBG drafts because for 95% of players, I like Dodds' projections. He's just really good.
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Yeah, there's a bit truth in this, but there's more to it also. I'm in another league where a guy reached for James Starks in the 12th round because he took Lacy in the 1st. There's another league I'm in where a guy took Big Ben in the 4th round. Lots of stuff like this normally goes on. I think everyone in the thread league has a better sense of MFL 10 ADP and how to use it in drafting than the average owner. So that alone makes it a bit tougher.

As for rankings, I'm not using Dodd's or any FBG rankings, really. I've got my own rankings based on ADP with players marked as to whether I'd take them at ADP, Reach on them, or only take them much lower than ADP. Then I'm tracking exposures to make sure I have pretty much everyone somewhere, and doing my best not to be too over-exposed to any individual players. Last year I had way too much of Gerhart, Patterson, and Floyd. And even with this, I feel the same as the others about the lack of falling value players.

So basically I'm saying that while there is definitely some aspect of 'groupthink' (after all isn't that exactly what APD is? And I'm sure we're all using it.), this is definitely a more knowledgeable group than most I've drafted with. Don't think I'll do another thread MFL10, though I've definitely enjoyed the two.

 
Tick,

I don't think there's as much group think happening as you imply. I don't use any rankings so my FBG Expert's influence is limited to this thread and their podcasts. And I make sure to listen to many different podcasts just for the sake of making sure I don't fall into that trap.

There's going to be some group think because we are all discussing things but I think that has more to do with this thread than it does Dodds (or whatever FBG) rankings. I posted round by round who I plan to draft. Either positions or exact players. So I'm sure that doesn't help me with getting the guys I want.

Now that it's August we are going to see less and less value picks. ADPs will naturally tighten up. Plus, no one here was using the MFL ADP. I think that skewed drafts a bit too since it was so influenced by rookie and dyno drafts. This is enhanced even more when there's people in drafts timing out and/or getting put on auto draft.

 
BoltBacker said:
I am definitely getting in a rut in these things, that's why I thought the auction would be a fun twist. When you guys are finished with this draft it would be fun to get a $10 acution-and-go best ball started.
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Does this have to be a private MFL league setup or can you just say "I joined one, get in here!" ?

I'd be in as long as there's no roster management. I think I've done 3 auction leagues in my life time. So, I'm probably an easy target.

 
My team so far in round2 :

Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 3.07

Smith, Alex KCC QB 17.07

Jennings, Rashad NYG RB 6.06

Bell, Joique DET RB (O) 7.07

Freeman, Devonta ATL RB 8.06

Sims, Charles TBB RB 9.07

McFadden, Darren DAL RB (O) 12.06

Allen, Javorius BAL RB ® 13.07

Bryant, Dez DAL WR 1.07

Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 2.06

Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR 4.06

Colston, Marques NOS WR (P) 10.06

Royal, Eddie CHI WR 14.06

Britt, Kenny STL WR 15.07

Olsen, Greg CAR TE 5.07

Gates, Antonio SDC TE (S) 11.07

Patriots, New England NEP Def 16.06

Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 18.06

Overall, disappointed in the execution, but predetermining to use a specific strategy will always hamper the ability to assemble the best roster. It was a fun experiment, although one I maybe should have saved for a non-FBG draft.

Taking Gronk at 1.07 would have allowed me to take a WR in the 5th, and based on who went, I would have like that combo better, plus would have diversified a little more team-wise. Should have gone RB in the 4th, although if Murray lasted just one more pick, I would have salvaged it.

Gates autopick at 11 was pretty disappointing to wake up to.

I'd like this roster better in a management league, obviously. There isn't a whole lot of upside, so I think a middle of the road finish is most likely.

 
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I only have him in 1 out of 30. Was looking to increase exposure, but he'd crept up into the 1.08-1.12 range and I liked guys over him until the early 2nd. Good luck.

I just saw someone take Alfred Blue in the early 9th.

 
I was just on the clock in one of mine at 10.07 and didn't take Blue. No clue how serious this is rather not waste a pick that early.

 
Willie Neslon said:
BroadwayG said:
I have 15 Arian Fosters. :sadbanana:
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ouch
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As per the leader board, that's about 15% of his 99 leagues. Yeah, that hurts.

Gotta be careful about liking some players too much, I'm a bit overexposed to CJ Anderson, Gronk, and Megatron in the first two rounds of mine, with each in about 20%. I have some late round guys in a higher percentage too (like R. Randle, Crabtree, T. Williams) but it hurts less if you lose guys like that.

But judging from Broadway's squads I've seen, I'm sure he'll have enough depth that at least one of those 15 Foster teams is in the money at season's end.

 
Welp, there goes 20% of my leagues. I won one last year with Peterson. Never know I guess.

 
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I think I have 4 shares of Foster (out of 39 leagues) and all but one of them were early drafts where he fell to me in the late second, so it's not too big a hit for me. He's not a guy I've been targeting at all. I also handcuffed him with Blue in 3 of the 4.

 
BroadwayG said:
I have 15 Arian Fosters. :sadbanana:
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Touchdown There said:
Touchdown There said:
BroadwayG said:
On paper you've got a lot going against you and in theory will need to hit at least 2 or 3 home runs on the order of OBJ and CJ Anderson to overcome it.
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This was my first attempt of many, working on my third right now. CJ Spiller was sniped just ahead of me in the 4th and Ameer Abdullah was picked at 5.09 just before my 5.10. Those were my two "backup plans" in the middle rounds. RBs look to be going much faster in these drafts and QBs sinking. Someone will get hurt ahead of these 4 backup RBs and I am above average at the other positions.

No issues with the structure then? You just believe in RB RB RB in this format?
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Think of all the drafters last year that took Adrian Peterson with a top 2 pick and then matched him up with Doug Martin, Zac Stacy, or Andre Ellington in the 3rd? The most risk and the greatest turnover is at the RB position...not that I like this roster or anything. I will post the results of the draft I am in when finished. Went Graham at 2.11 and Rodgers at 3.02 just to test the strategy of rostering 2 QBs and TEs in order to have two more shots at the RB/WR position.
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Touchdown There said:
BroadwayG said:
I have 15 Arian Fosters. :sadbanana:
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Touchdown There said:
Touchdown There said:
BroadwayG said:
On paper you've got a lot going against you and in theory will need to hit at least 2 or 3 home runs on the order of OBJ and CJ Anderson to overcome it.
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This was my first attempt of many, working on my third right now. CJ Spiller was sniped just ahead of me in the 4th and Ameer Abdullah was picked at 5.09 just before my 5.10. Those were my two "backup plans" in the middle rounds. RBs look to be going much faster in these drafts and QBs sinking. Someone will get hurt ahead of these 4 backup RBs and I am above average at the other positions.

No issues with the structure then? You just believe in RB RB RB in this format?
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Think of all the drafters last year that took Adrian Peterson with a top 2 pick and then matched him up with Doug Martin, Zac Stacy, or Andre Ellington in the 3rd? The most risk and the greatest turnover is at the RB position...not that I like this roster or anything. I will post the results of the draft I am in when finished. Went Graham at 2.11 and Rodgers at 3.02 just to test the strategy of rostering 2 QBs and TEs in order to have two more shots at the RB/WR position.
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What is even your point here? Also, why won't you respond to my PMs RE: the bet(s) that YOU proposed for your ####ty 0RB team?

 
BroadwayG said:
Ummm...congrats on stating the obvious and patting yourself on the back for it?
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30-40% of RBs considered RB1 right now will completely flop from injury or timeshare or other reasons. If you are spending all your draft capital on early round RBs, you are taking GREAT RISK. This is especially true if you are going to draft before training camp is over in a best ball.

Foster is the first to go down, there will be more ACLs, hamstrings, groins and concussions.

 
RobMonge said:
What is even your point here? Also, why won't you respond to my PMs RE: the bet(s) that YOU proposed for your ####ty 0RB team?
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You declined the bet I proposed. I did not propose any other bet, I said I would look at your drafts. Sent you a PM, doubt you take me up on it.

 
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