BoltBacker
Footballguy
Ah, interesting. Thanks for the info. Do you happen to know if he's a poster here on the FBG message boards?
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Best Ball (MFL10s, DRAFT, etc.) (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Borden
- Start date
BoltBacker
Footballguy
A team defense thread might be interesting..... we should have one here.
Julius Thomas is going ~#108 recently. I like the talent but am unsure about the injury history and situation. I think it really depends on what you think of the TD totals for Bortles this year. A lot of people are predicting Bortles to have a big drop and yet not much of a drop for Robinson. If you think that's the case then I'm not sure how many that leaves you. There is some interesting discussion that players have a drop in productivity after signing a big contract so maybe that points to a BIG drop by Hurns though.
Borden
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Yeah, I have been hammering Hyde pretty regularly too. I guess folks are just assuming he's going to get injured.... I don't know how he gets less than 300 touches in that offense if he doesn't miss time with injury. I also just don't think that team is as bad as most people seem to think it is however.
I haven't drafted from the #5 spot yet all year but I did draft from #6 and we have some overlap on those teams....
1.06
Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB
2.07
Miller, Lamar HOU RB
3.06
Cobb, Randall GBP WR
4.07
Hyde, Carlos SFO RB
5.06
Newton, Cam CAR QB
6.07
Jones, Matt WAS RB
7.06
Jones, Marvin DET WR
8.07
Jackson, DeSean WAS WR
9.06
Snead, Willie NOS WR
10.07
Thomas, Julius JAC TE
11.06
Coleman, Tevin ATL RB
12.07
Witten, Jason DAL TE
13.06
Sanu, Mohamed ATL WR
14.07
Dalton, Andy CIN QB
15.06
Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB
16.07
Garcon, Pierre WAS WR
17.06
Tamme, Jacob ATL TE
18.07
Jets, New York NYJ Def
19.06
Dolphins, Miami MIA Def
20.07
Aiken, Kamar BAL WR
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Ughhhhhh, maybe I spoke too soon. It's a shame as I am a big fan of Anderson....
Colts owner Jim Irsay conceded Wednesday that second-year DE Henry Anderson (ACL) may not be ready for Week 1.
The Colts are "hoping" Arthur Jones (ankle) will be back by then to ease the burden of Anderson's likely absence. Anderson was a sneaky DROY candidate before tearing his ACL in Week 9, flashing high-level ability as both an interior pass rusher and run stopper. He'll be sorely missed by a weak Indy defense. Jun 8 - 8:20 PM
Borden
Footballguy
Zero RB is out the window. If figured, Dez would be gone by nine when I pre drafted. AB, OBJ, Julio, AJG, Dez, Nuk, Bell, Gurley, AP was my 9. Then it got messed up Zeke was taken at #5 then Bell then Gronk.
Failed science already. But I guess now I'm just stuck with this crappy Dez Bryant guy.
Failed science already. But I guess now I'm just stuck with this crappy Dez Bryant guy.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Are you trying zero RB?
Borden
Footballguy
I was going to. But I screwed up. I didn't think Zeke was going that high. So I put 6 WRs then the RBs on my predraft. Stupid I know but I was just trying to clear out the list because so I could see the rest of the RBs. Honestly from what I heard I thought there might not even be one non-WR taken by the time it got to #9 so I figured I was safe. Again, I screwed up.
To be honest, I'm glad I didn't. DJ, AP, Gurley were all gone by the time it got back to me. I took Miller (over Freeman) with my next pick.
I think the zero RB has to come naturally. BPA and don't worry about position. Then adjust later in the draft. Reaching in a draft is never good. Not that I would've thought twice about Gurley at 9th, in this case.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
FWIW I think you made a great pick with Miller in the 2nd round, but full disclosure I have Miller on ~21% of my teams so I am obviously biased.
I have drafted from the #9 spot five times(not recently though) and only once did I go WR-WR with my top two picks.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
Nice team. Aiken in round 20 is sweet. Even before the Perriman injury, I think there was some nice value with the other B'more receivers (Smith, Wallace, Aiken) and all make nice mid-late round MFL10 targets.
Unfortunately it seems like people are catching on to Marvin Jones in the past couple weeks. He was regularly available in the 7th or 8th round all summer, but the last few drafts I've been in he has been going 5th or 6th round. He actually went all the way up at 5.04 in one I'm currently doing:
http://www63.myfantasyleague.com/2016/options?L=16126&O=17
I know many will disagree, but I like him straight up over Golden Tate this year in all formats and thought it was crazy there was a 4 round difference in ADP as of the end of May.
I'm with you on Hyde. I don't really understand why his ADP is mid-4th round vs. late 2nd/early 3rd. I guess people are just scared off of the 49ers offense in general? Or worried about an injury? But SF is going to play at a fast pace and Hyde is going to get a ton of snaps and touches. He's going to have some big weeks just on volume alone. And none of the other backs on that team impress me at all, so he is probably going to get a bunch of work in the passing game too. Thus, he won't be game script dependent like a lot of other backs going after the first couple rounds.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Yeah, I am a big fan of both of them honestly but not only is Tate's ADP projecting him to go earlier in the draft but Tate is one of those players that always seems to go even earlier than his ADP in every draft I am in. I think they will both have good years and which is better for your team kind of depends on what the rest of your WR corp looks like. I expect Tate production to be very, very steady starter often in ppr while Jones will have fewer, bigger weeks due to yardage and TD's. On this roster I was able to get some high floor WR's in the back half of the draftDan Hindery said:
BoltBacker
Footballguy
He might be a good hedge if you are excited about some of the rookie WR's available. Hawkins definitely has an advantage being the lone vet in the WR rotation(assuming we don't see Gordon again) so he may start the season as a big cog in that offense. Some rookies like Doctson and Thomas for instance might have much bigger roles as the season progresses and competitors for targets get dinged up.
I haven't taken Hawkins in any leagues yet, though. I would assume he's being taken in FFPC leagues(28 rounds).
Dan Hindery
Moderator
Yeah, I get why people like Tate and agree there's a solid floor. But I have a hard time getting excited about him, especially in best ball. He should catch plenty of balls and by the end of the year have decent PPR totals. But his targets after Cooter took over were mostly on short passes and I don't think the 9.0 YPC for the season was a fluke. I expect something in that 9-10 YPC range again in 2016. So even if you do project towards the high end with 100 catches, that's still just 900-1000 yards. And he's never scored more than 7 TDs (and that was with SEA back in 2012) in a season. I expect a lot of 6-60-0 type lines from him, which isn't what I'm looking for in the 3rd round of an MFL10. I like to draft 8 WRs and I can usually manufacture those 12 point performances for the WR3/4 spot pretty easily each week so the main goal early is to get some guys who can put up 25 or 30 points a few times.
Borden
Footballguy
Borden
Footballguy
Off the topic you were talking about but... You said you like to take 8 WRs. Do you have a relatively static roster composition? Say 2 QB, 5 RB, 8 WR, 3 TE, 2 Def for example? If so how does this impact your drafting?
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Dan Hindery
Moderator
The default ADP on MFL is all out of whack right now due to dynasty rookie drafts. It seems to be causing the top rookies to go earlier than they should because they keep popping up at the top of the queue for people when they go to draft. So Doctson went 10.03 and Thomas went 8.07 in my current draft. Too rich for my blood.
mrip541
Footballguy
I actually have no idea what his win% was last year. For all I know he's just some random gambling addict. I like to keep tabs on who the high volume players like in which rounds, and compare it to the overall MFL10 adp. Pick up on things like Aaron H was in love with Perriman, is taking OBJ at 1.02, was going a bit RB heavy in the first few rounds but seems to now be using a bpa approach to the first few rounds which leads to him going RB heavy in leagues with other "pros", goes 3 TEs 2 DTs, and likes his QBs in rounds 11-14. I assume the high volume guys are better at this than I but who really knows.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Yeah, they are going in the mid rounds, sometimes late-mid rounds. I see Doctson get auto-drafted much more often than Thomas and that may continue at least as long as Doctson misses time with a bad wheel. Probably a lot of folks remember the White fiasco last year. On the other side of that coin I was high on OBJ in my early drafts two years ago, and kept pushing him down and pushing him down as he missed all that time and really missed out on a great talent in a lot of leagues. So caution in these situations can save you or kill you.
Anyway, I was speaking of Hawkins more as a 20th round last pick insurance for a cheap early season contributor at WR to offset a mid round gamble with a rookie WR that has a lot of competition for targets when everyone is healthy at the start of the year. Hawkins was meant to be a complimentary pick to those two players rather than an either-or.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I think BroadwayG already posted he had a 15.3% win rate, which is impressive but not to the point it would shape the way I draft.mrip541 said:
It is interesting in that what you described is more or less how I draft as well..... well, everything except the Perriman pick. I feel over-invested in him at 9% so those must have been in leagues where he dropped very late. If Aaron H is a footballguy it would be interesting to hear his takes on strategy. I am fascinated by those that feel like they can read the BAL situation because I like the coaches and situation there but I really have no idea how it's going to be divided up. At this point I am only taking guys when they fall well below their ADP.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
He did an interview with draftsharks last year, not a whole lot of substance. Direct link no worky, but it is cached here:
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Somi8EPJMS4J:www.draftsharks.com/article/2340/mfl10-legend-aaron-h--the-definitive-interview+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Somi8EPJMS4J:www.draftsharks.com/article/2340/mfl10-legend-aaron-h--the-definitive-interview+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
Very interesting. This guy sounds just a touch paranoid, but he seems like a bright and interesting guy. A few things that resonated with me from that "interview"......
- I use different team names because sometimes I have more than one draft going at the same time and it's easier for me to keep track of which team has different positional needs if they have different team names.
- I completely agree with him about avoiding drafts with a "plan". They are all so different. In one the RB starts late. In another the TE run starts early. In some you can get legit QB's with your last pick in the draft, others you had better plan on getting your backup by round 15. This is one of the reasons I think all the talk of "mocks" is kind of silly. Each draft has a life of its own. It does about as much good to mock drafts as it does to carry around a sack of flour to find out what being a parent is like. The MFL 10's are such small stakes why not do actual drafts?
- I disagree with him in that he says he won't draft someone just because they are way below their normal ADP. I do that at times to help me with roster diversification over my leagues. If there's a guy I would normally never consider at his ADP and he's several rounds below that, I will take a flyer on him if he fits my team needs(high ceiling WR for instance). One of the reasons this interview was so interesting was it brought to light how one guy, playing in a TON of leagues can influence the ADP of one player. I didn't think there was any value in tracking a high volume player(unless he was more successful than yourself) but it is interesting to know that it's not that the entire community that is high on Perriman for instance, it's just that the player with by far the most entries is high on him. That would actually lead me to draft him even lower knowing that so much of Perriman's ADP is wrapped up in the opinion of one person.
- I completely agree that there probably isn't much more of a time difference between drafting 1 of these leagues or 20 at the same time. If you just check in three times a day you are getting so much practice that you already know who your typically targeted players/positions are in each round.
- The most shocking part of the entire interview was when he admitted to having timed out on picks. I would have guessed if you were investing thousands of $ in these things you would probably have systems of redundancy even if your cell phone was out of power/reception. Really, all it takes is checking in four times a day and you should never even come close to timing out. EVER. That's why it's so frustrating how slow some of these things go.
LOL@the comments section, "This guy is kind of a joke." ?????
Thanks for the link, BroadwayG. You are a pretty serious and thoughtful MFL10 player..... if you were asked all the questions Aaron H was asked how would you answer them?
BroadwayG
Footballguy
I track ADP, all drafts, and my results religiously, as I hope everyone knows already. I went 0-16 in 2014 and 26-104 in 2015 for an even 25% 1sts and 154% ROI.
I never change my name to throw people off because that would throw my personal analysis off as well.
My 'normal' baseline is 2/5/7/2/2 with two flex spots to toss around, typically two of TE/QB/WR. It would take a seriously weird draft flow to deviate from that.
The ADP is my base ranking and I have a few leans up and down from that for certain players, but not enough to make any manual adjustments. I use my website to chart an expected path for each draft and try to plan accordingly. My goal is to stay flexible enough at each position throughout the draft to scoop up any extraordinary value that happens to fall without breaking my flow. I follow MFL10 and fantasy twitter closely to get a heads up when players get pimped or poo-pooed by the 'experts' which will also cause noticeable ADP variation. Lack of knowledge/information will not be on my list of excuses if I fail.
I have a little more trouble with autopicks as I'm prone to sleeping well over 8 hours at a time on the rare time I get the chance so I keep my active drafts to 10 or under. Easier to go through and set predrafts. I think I have 2 autos so far, a Demarco Murray and a Tyler Higbee.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I would describe my baseline as similar, with the exception that I never feel comfortable with less than 3 TE's. Would you say you like to have your TE2 generally higher than most of your opponents, or would you say you just feel comfortable finding guys that will outperform ADP at TE?
You don't have to say which player, but is there a player this season you feel you are already more invested in than you should be? For instance at this point I feel like I am all-in with Hyde on 30% of my teams because I don't think SF will be the tire fire everyone else does, and I just think he is by far the most talented piece in that offense. While I enjoy listening to a guy like Evan Silva, he points to guys like Gabbert/Kaep/Smith and questions whether they will be able to move the ball and I instead see players that are a pretty good fit for a simplified, quick tempo, speed oriented offense. Their OL isn't as bad as it played last year and on defense in the front seven they have Buckner/Armstead/Bowman so it's not Saints-awful.
I don't feel like I should be invested in any single player more than 20% on players drafted in the top 5 rounds(partially because I was one of the wonks that got burned badly by Spiller last year..... also in the 4th round) but I just can't seem to pass on his upside. Is there a certain % ownership threshold you try to stay under with your early picks? Late picks?
BroadwayG
Footballguy
Without looking it up, yes, I think I get all of QB/TE/DEF 2s higher than normal. That makes me feel a lot more comfortable leaving them at 2 if I need to.
I don't have any positional player over 25% at the moment; Mathews, Martellus, Ben R and Eli are the only positional players I've taken 10+ times through 45 drafts. I haven't paid much attention to my actual ownership numbers so far, I'll look at that maybe once a week. I can feel when I'm starting to get out of sorts one way or the other on a player, and make adjustments.
I don't have a number set in stone for ownership, but it seems like the 25% number is what my max will gravitate towards regardless of the spot in the draft.
I don't have any positional player over 25% at the moment; Mathews, Martellus, Ben R and Eli are the only positional players I've taken 10+ times through 45 drafts. I haven't paid much attention to my actual ownership numbers so far, I'll look at that maybe once a week. I can feel when I'm starting to get out of sorts one way or the other on a player, and make adjustments.
I don't have a number set in stone for ownership, but it seems like the 25% number is what my max will gravitate towards regardless of the spot in the draft.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
I don't exactly have a static roster, but I generally try to use 12 or 13 of my picks on RB and WR. I think you have to be flexible. The 12/13 number is static but the breakdown between RB and WR will depend upon where I spend my earliest picks. For example, I have regularly found myself spending 4 of my first 6 picks on RB. In that scenario, I have been happy to stick with just 4 (or maybe take a 5th very late) and use 8 picks on WR. So 4/5 RB and 8 WR. I can compensate for only having 2 highly-drafted WRs by going with a big number of WRs with weekly upside. If I get forced to draft a bunch of WRs early (like if I get #1 overall, take AB and there's a run on RBs in round 2 which leaves me drafting another WR or two at the 2/3 turn), I will adjust and go 6 RBs and 6/7 WRs.
That leaves 7 or 8 picks for QB/TE/DEF combined. Kind of like with WR, I let my early picks dictate where I go light at. If I snag Jordan Reed in the 3rd round, I will take a backup in round 13/14 and stick with just two TEs. If I wait on TE until the 8th round or later, I'm more likely to take 3 of them. Same if I end up grabbing Brees or Rothlisberger in the 8th. I feel like going relatively early at either QB or TE buys me the ability to go with just 2 at the position.
I think this year when I am drafting from the mid-late 1st, this is my favorite roster makeup:
QB-3
RB-5
WR-8
TE-2
DEF-2
Heavy on RBs early. A strong TE1. Load up on WRs in rounds 6-13. Wait pretty long on my first QB and grab a 3rd one late.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
For the WRs in rounds 6-13 you mention, which ones will have a few huge weeks in best ball format? Examples: Lockett, DeSean Jackson
Dan Hindery
Moderator
Some of the guys in that range I like are Tyler Lockett, Allen Hurns, Marvin Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, Tavon Austin, Phillip Dorsett, Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, Sammie Coates, Mike Wallace, Sterling Shepard.
If you have 2-3 top receivers and also add 4-5 of the guys listed above, I think you've got a good chance to get nice WR production every week and have some of those big games that you need to push yourself towards the top.
As a real-life example, in a recent MFL10 with FBG staffers I took Marvin Jones in the 6th, Lockett in the 7th, S. Smith in the 9th, Dorsett in the 10th and Coates in the 11th. Each of those guys has some big-play ability and weekly upside.
starks
Footballguy
So I drafted kelce and graham before I noticed they had the same bye week. How concerned are you guys tryin to cover every bye week? I won a league last year without 3 TE the final 4 weeks but it turned out to be a rediculous draft. I like to draft two high ends and really don't want to waste a bye week cover so I was curious...
BroadwayG
Footballguy
I made it through my target 100 MFL10s before my personal deadline.
My 1st five round loadouts:
2.3.0
40
3.2.0
22
1.4.0
18
4.1.0
6
2.2.1
6
3.1.1
3
1.3.1
2
0.4.1
2
0.5.0
1
Nothing too outlandish, definitely give a concerted effort to stay balanced to take advantage of mid round values.
My 1st five round loadouts:
2.3.0
40
3.2.0
22
1.4.0
18
4.1.0
6
2.2.1
6
3.1.1
3
1.3.1
2
0.4.1
2
0.5.0
1
Nothing too outlandish, definitely give a concerted effort to stay balanced to take advantage of mid round values.
pennystock
Footballguy
Looks like a good distribution. Are you still predominantly playing MFL10s? I think last year you had 4 MFL 25s but the rest at 10s IIRC. GL to you, hope you do as well or better than you did last year!
pennystock
Footballguy
Got ya, I like the 10X too, was bummed when they switched that last year for the other prices. Selfishly, I'm glad I'm not playing against you, you've got an excellent track record 
BoltBacker
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
BroadwayG
Footballguy
Well, I don't have my contraption set up to do that automatically, but if you ask any data related questions I will get the answers if I can.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
My deadline was I wanted to be down to less than 5 active drafts going when my daughter is born in the next two weeks. I chose 100 10s because that was my lucky number last year.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
If you'd like to make your own contraption, check out the Help|Developer's Program link from any MFL page.
brun
Footballguy
I'm going to top out at 40 of these and with about 5 more to sign up for, it's starting to feel stale. I'm truly impressed by anyone who does 100+! I just couldn't see myself anywhere near that.BroadwayG said:
I really appreciate your posts and wish you luck in the coming season and especially for the upcoming family addition!
BroadwayG
Footballguy
I hear you about the staleness, if I didn't have access to all the data to watch and play with, I would get burnt out also. It is very interesting to watch the ADP change when Bloom or Silva or other big dogs communicate strong feelings for a player in a podcast or tweets. Now with training camp starting you have a ton of fresh faces in the water with a lot of suboptimal drafting methods altering ADP again. This is a perfect time to join a ton of leagues, but unfortunately the timing worked out poorly for me and the baby, but I won't be complaining.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
Pretty good up top until I hit Tennessee which definitely shouldn't be in my top 10 owned, no matter the value. Would have liked more ARI and NYJ to show up, but not surprised considering the relative costs of rosterable players. Poor Brian Hartline is my lone Free Agent.
Non-Defense team distribution:
PIT
86
NEP
77
IND
74
NOS
73
GBP
72
DET
69
TBB
65
TEN
64
SDC
64
PHI
62
WAS
60
ATL
59
KCC
59
BAL
56
BUF
56
DAL
56
NYG
55
CIN
55
SEA
55
CAR
53
MIN
51
SFO
48
CHI
47
MIA
45
DEN
45
OAK
42
ARI
41
JAC
40
RAM
39
CLE
36
NYJ
31
HOU
26
FA
1
Non-Defense team distribution:
PIT
86
NEP
77
IND
74
NOS
73
GBP
72
DET
69
TBB
65
TEN
64
SDC
64
PHI
62
WAS
60
ATL
59
KCC
59
BAL
56
BUF
56
DAL
56
NYG
55
CIN
55
SEA
55
CAR
53
MIN
51
SFO
48
CHI
47
MIA
45
DEN
45
OAK
42
ARI
41
JAC
40
RAM
39
CLE
36
NYJ
31
HOU
26
FA
1
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I am surprised to see this. I am fading all Patriots this year(at least in this format) and am in big on both Lamar Miller and Brock Osweiler, my most owned QB.BroadwayG said:
