brun
Footballguy
I just created an account. I didn't actually join a league. I probably won't due to their fees; $1 for my state, 4%+.99 to deposit via CC really reduces the return just to try one $20 league.
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Best Ball (MFL10s, DRAFT, etc.) (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Borden
- Start date
jabarony
Footballguy
I haven't touched a rookie TE, yet. Just because rookie TEs rarely make waves. I'll take Witten/Clay, or similar, in the 14th or 15th and be satisfied with 50/500/4. I may take a few post draft, though, depending on landing spot.BoltBacker said:
As for the WRs I've taken a couple Williams/Davis at ADP just to mix it up. But I like Ross in 11-12th just because I can see him rising post-draft (see Kanara). I've thrown some darts later when the "solid" NFL starters dry up a bit. Henderson and maybe Samuel, I've slightly targeted.**
** I know very little about these guys, just cursory"research". So take with a grain of salt.
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
I only ask about TE because it seems like all the experts are absolutely gushing about the TE crop this year. Maybe part of that is due to mediocre or worse TE classes in the recent past but it seems like they were hyped going into the combine.... and after the combine every draft expert can rattle off half a dozen guys that could possibly have a big impact as a rookie. There are some people that think there will be three TE's go in the first round. Some of those teams have nobody to compete for targets(NYG/TB/JAX/DEN/NYJ/CLE/ARZ), some have big FA flops that have been overpayed and may be on the way out(PIT/MIA/BUF/SF), some have contracts coming up and it might be time to go younger/cheaper(DET), some have over-achiever types that have probably reached their middling ceiling(TB/HOU), and several have guys at the very tail end of their career(DAL/BAL/TEN/CHI). I think Howard/Njoku are instant cogs in the offence and a big improvement at the position. A lot of people are saying one of Engram/Everett/Shaheen will be the fantasy stars and have the highest receiving ceilings of an already talented group. And lastly, Jake Butt would have gone much higher in the past several drafts but there's just so much talent in front of him(and he is recovering from an injury) so he's been pushed down and forgotten about this year despite having potential.
Completely agree with you that TE's usually are oversold and under deliver but this year seems like a possible exception. It's a fun group to speculate about.
At WR I haven't touched Henderson yet, but I know there is a dedicated group of analysts that believe in him. I have been more focused on Zay Jones/Godwin/Schuster as guys that have a good shot at contributing as a rookie. Other last round swings at catching lightning in a bottle that I have on the same tier as Henderson include Westbrook, Cannon, and Kupp(only in ppr obviously). The smart folks I listen to that watch more tape than I do seem to love ArDarius Stewart/Hanson/Ford/Taylor more than that last group I mentioned but I'm struggling to understand the love.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Why anyone would take Cook in the late 30's over Mixon in the 60's is an absolute mystery to me. They both have bust potential in a muddled backfield but I just see Mixon as having such a higher ceiling if he ever has the opportunity to be "the guy" at some point in the season. I couldn't agree with you more.
Borden
Footballguy
Fournette at 3.03
Mixon at 4.04
McCaffery 4.06
Cook still on the board at 5.01
My theory (which won't matter in less than two weeks) is that whatever team takes Mixon will NEED a RB while the Cook team might just be a team looking to upgrade. My logic is that Cook has never been convicted of anything and Mixons video is everywhere so why would a team take that PR nightmare if they are just trying to upgrade. Thus, Mixon should have a straight line to the top of a depth chart. Plus, I think Cook is scheme (zone) dependant.
CabinFever
Footballguy
Thoughts on taking Fat Eddie and K. Benjamin at the 5.12/6.1 turn? RBs were looking pretty thin (even Mixon was already gone) and went with Lacy over Forte, Prosise, Montgomery, Abdullah...and went Benjamin over Crowder, Marshall, Corey Coleman, and the rookie WRs...
BoltBacker
Footballguy
How many RB's did you have in your first four picks?
That's an area(pick #60) where I generally don't chase RB, but I typically have at least one in my first four picks. Drafting from the 12 spot I would have no problem taking McCoy/Freeman(or even reaching for Gurley) at 2.01. And at 4.01 I have no problem drafting Miller/Hyde(or even reaching for Ingram). So in your shoes I'd have 2RB/2WR and wouldn't consider any of the RB's you listed. To me, Benjamin/Crowder are the safest names. But if you didn't have a RB in your first four picks then waiting until pick #84 to select your first RB takes some nerve(and imo a whole lotta roster spots at RB).
CabinFever
Footballguy
So doing my first MFL10 and maybe I'm going a tad rookie heavy? Just seems the upside is there with PPR scoring and Davis in the 8th seemed very good value if he does end up in Tennessee or Baltimore as a potential #1WR
1.12 Michael Thomas
2.1 Brandon Cooks
3.12 Christian McCaffrey
4.1 Dalvin Cook
5.12 Kelvin Benjamin
6.1 Eddie Fat Lacy
7.12 Corey Coleman
8.1 Corey Davis
1.12 Michael Thomas
2.1 Brandon Cooks
3.12 Christian McCaffrey
4.1 Dalvin Cook
5.12 Kelvin Benjamin
6.1 Eddie Fat Lacy
7.12 Corey Coleman
8.1 Corey Davis
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Borden
Footballguy
My draft so far:
Freeman, Devonta ATL RB
255.4
-
1.09
Mixon, Joe FA RB (R)
-
-
4.04
Bryant, Martavis PIT WR (S)
-
-
8.04
Hill, Tyreek KCC WR
189.9
-
5.09
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR
258.3
-
2.04
Jeffery, Alshon PHI WR
144.1
-
3.09
Eifert, Tyler CIN TE (Q)
98.4
-
6.04
Henry, Hunter LAC TE
115.5
Freeman, Devonta ATL RB
255.4
-
1.09
Mixon, Joe FA RB (R)
-
-
4.04
Bryant, Martavis PIT WR (S)
-
-
8.04
Hill, Tyreek KCC WR
189.9
-
5.09
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR
258.3
-
2.04
Jeffery, Alshon PHI WR
144.1
-
3.09
Eifert, Tyler CIN TE (Q)
98.4
-
6.04
Henry, Hunter LAC TE
115.5
BroadwayG
Footballguy
Cobb's ADP is so weird. I was feeling great taking him at the 5/6 turn in my initial drafts.
If anyone likes micro-managing draft lists that you can copy and paste into the MFL 'My Draft List', I've got one up on my site. You'll need to make an account if you don't have one already.
https://www.ffpages.com/mfl10/DraftList
If anyone likes micro-managing draft lists that you can copy and paste into the MFL 'My Draft List', I've got one up on my site. You'll need to make an account if you don't have one already.
https://www.ffpages.com/mfl10/DraftList
Borden
Footballguy
My first one just is just about wrapped up. I'm done pick though. Here's the team:
Cousins, Kirk WAS QB 10.04
Dalton, Andy CIN QB 12.04
Glennon, Mike CHI QB 14.04
Freeman, Devonta ATL RB 1.09
Johnson, Duke CLE RB 9.09
Mixon, Joe FA RB (R) 4.04
Sims, Charles TBB RB (Q) 13.09
West, Charcandrick KCC RB 17.09
Bryant, Martavis PIT WR (S) 8.04
Hill, Tyreek KCC WR 5.09
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 2.04
Jeffery, Alshon PHI WR 3.09
Ross, John FA WR (R) 16.04
White, Kevin CHI WR (Q) 11.09
Allen, Dwayne NEP TE 15.09
Eifert, Tyler CIN TE (Q) 6.04
Henry, Hunter LAC TE 7.09
Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB 19.09
Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 20.04
Raiders, Oakland OAK Def 18.04
Dalton, Andy CIN QB 12.04
Glennon, Mike CHI QB 14.04
Freeman, Devonta ATL RB 1.09
Johnson, Duke CLE RB 9.09
Mixon, Joe FA RB (R) 4.04
Sims, Charles TBB RB (Q) 13.09
West, Charcandrick KCC RB 17.09
Bryant, Martavis PIT WR (S) 8.04
Hill, Tyreek KCC WR 5.09
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 2.04
Jeffery, Alshon PHI WR 3.09
Ross, John FA WR (R) 16.04
White, Kevin CHI WR (Q) 11.09
Allen, Dwayne NEP TE 15.09
Eifert, Tyler CIN TE (Q) 6.04
Henry, Hunter LAC TE 7.09
Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB 19.09
Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 20.04
Raiders, Oakland OAK Def 18.04
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
High risk/high reward, in particular with your WR's. I guess that makes sense in a winner-take-all format though.
One of the few real "reaches" was Charcandrick West at RB. Is there a reason why you are particularly high on him? Or does it just mean you are particularly low on Ware?
CabinFever
Footballguy
Finished my first one and definitely went rookie crazy...but still like the team's potential
Winston, Palmer
McCaffrey, Cook, Lacy, Kamari, Perine, Mack
Thomas, Cooks, Benjamin, Coleman, Corey Davis, Doctson, Curtis Samuel
Howard, Njuko, Zach Miller
Eagles, Panthers
Winston, Palmer
McCaffrey, Cook, Lacy, Kamari, Perine, Mack
Thomas, Cooks, Benjamin, Coleman, Corey Davis, Doctson, Curtis Samuel
Howard, Njuko, Zach Miller
Eagles, Panthers
Borden
Footballguy
I took West in the 17th round, the last round before I took 3 Def. There was nothing left at RB.
In general I tried to go "safe" with Freeman, Hilton and Alshon. Then just hoping one of the remaining guys is able to put up something decent to backfill each starting spot.
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
Yeah, those three are pretty safe.
I was just curious if you were high on West or not. In general I think I have been high on Ware(and still kind of am) so maybe I'm just wondering why it feels like everyone else is lower on him than I am.
Also, do you start with 3 defenses this time of year and after you know what the bye weeks are(just recently) do you pair down to 2 defenses? Or are you a 3 defense guy all off-season? I ask because my draft strategy changes from February to August and the way my rosters are comprised often changes as well.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Borden
Footballguy
Picking West wasn't an opinion of Ware, or even West, where I took him. It was just the closest available RB to starting. A Ware injury or even West spells him and gets a big play or something. Might be enough to help. Sorry there isn't a better explanation.
I went with 3 D because that was my plan going in, due to the schedule not being released yet. Also, I just tried to be safe with this first one. Same with 3 QBs, when normal I would go 2.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
starks
Footballguy
Thinking of cashing out already. Joined my 6th draft this morning and only 1 has had a slot earlier than 9. I feel like looking at win % of top 5 slots I am just throwing my money out the window. I don't mind random draft slots when I am with my friends in a league, part of the drill (however I focus on auction/dyno) but donating to strangers and corporations kinda chaps me. Odds are I get a higher spots but thats what I thought 2 or 3 times ago....MFL needs an auction setting because I will not stick around and I doubt I am the only one thinking about this.
/rant
/rant
Borden
Footballguy
Do you think other people are are getting the higher draft positions because of where they work?starks said:
Where did you get the win percentage by position information from?
*These aren't meant to be condescending questions. I know on this board sometimes you need to clarify this.
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starks
Footballguy
I got the win % by position on this article...
https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/mfl10-roster-construction-strategy
As you can see your chances of finishing in the money are significantly higher based off draft position. Again I get it's random but I have had it drawing the 9-11 spots in every draft I have joined but one. This is one of the reasons I left all my redraft leagues but one, because its so old and I just want to stick to it with my buddies.
As far as people getting higher draft positions I just assumed it was randomized (it had better be).
Borden
Footballguy
Thanks for link. Did you post that article already? If not, why would you be holding out on sharing that? Trying to hide info from the competition?
Good info and that guy is just an enjoyable writer.
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BroadwayG
Footballguy
Don't get discouraged. This is 2015 win% by draft slot.
Code:
1 0.061
2 0.071
3 0.065
4 0.069
5 0.082
6 0.09
7 0.085
8 0.093
9 0.091
10 0.096
11 0.094
12 0.103
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brun
Footballguy
That's interesting. I looked back at a few of my winning teams last year and early draft position seemed to be a non-factor. Instead it was more related to selecting David Johnson or Leveon Bell in the middle late 1st round and having a solid collection of WR's. JMO, but despite the statistics, I believe the real impact-full part of the draft starts after round 2.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Yeah, I am absolutely guilty of over analyzing numbers as well(although with me I kind of go down a roster construction rabbit hole). In the end all that REALLY matters is picking good players, in situations that don't hold them back, that don't get hurt. After all the hours of podcasts you listen to and articles you read the winner gets there the same way we did in the 80's and our hands were black from pouring over the boxscores in the USAToday.... and then checking your math twice if the game was close. There was NO Fantasy Football industry/analysis back then and yet the formula for success was the same.
Borden
Footballguy
I figured they'd run into this problem. This sucks. I hope to hear that everything gets worked out for you.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Yeah, I don't blame you for being frustrated. There really needs to be a bitcoin driven alternative in the market place.mrip541 said:
Preferably one with a slow auction-and-go format with DEEP rosters. Maybe even IDP.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Anyone get their early rosters blasted by the draft?
BroadwayG
Footballguy
I had a ton of Ingram and Jeremy Hill and my value metrics went from awesome to a pile of doo in one week. Moderately heavy on Ivory, Yeldon, Lafell and McKinnon, but those weren't as bad as they were all in the latter half of the drafts. Going all in on Martellus Bennett again this year, feel like he should be going along side Graham, not 2 rounds after.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I definitely got stuck with a bunch of Ingram as well. I'll never learn when it comes to the Saints. All this talk about improving the defense and they spend both FA $ and draft capital at RB. At this point I just hope he gets traded.
Ivory was rough for me but as you mention I got him so late it was really at RBBC/backup prices anyway. Only one share of LaFell but I thought he was a good value going into the MFL season. I had a small amount of Brate for TB and a bit of Murray/McKinnon for MIN. Just a bit of Sharpe in TEN.
BroadwayG
Footballguy
I'm not too concerned about Ingram, still feel he'll put up some respectable numbers, just sucks 'trading down' from an early 3rd to a late 4th with no return value. Poor Hill might go into the undrafted heap by the start of the season.
From Ingram/Hyde to Anderson/Ware, that 3rd tier of RBs all went from reasonably solid to thin ice.
From Ingram/Hyde to Anderson/Ware, that 3rd tier of RBs all went from reasonably solid to thin ice.
CabinFever
Footballguy
Just the opposite posted this above and got the "dynasty MFL10" comment (that was appropriate and funny) but you couldn't draft this roster now the rookies ADP
Winston, Palmer
McCaffrey, Cook, Lacy, Kamara, Perine, Mack
Thomas, Cooks, Benjamin, Coleman, Corey Davis, Doctson, Curtis Samuel
Howard, Njuko, Zach Miller
Eagles, Panthers
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Borden
Footballguy
@BroadwayG
Any updates on your tips/tricks and tactics?
I see there's a new type of payout format with the x2. Your thoughts?
Any updates on your tips/tricks and tactics?
I see there's a new type of payout format with the x2. Your thoughts?
BroadwayG
Footballguy
Doubtful I will play in any of the x2s, just not worth the energy and the significant ROI hit. I don't even like the 25s where you give 2 entry fees of your prize money to 2nd place. The only strategy change I would make would be a little extra in the 3 Def column if I felt really good about the other positions.
Not much for tips/tricks. I'm using my web app to track my portfolio and value relative to ADP, focusing on accumulating value on players I feel are already underpriced. QBs have started their summer ADP surge. Massive RB value in the 5th/6th with Ingram/Anderson/Ware falling victim to rookie/FA hype. That leaves me more open to grabbing WR where I would typically take RBs. TE is extremely deep, but very important. Lots of solid WR options late so I'm generally saving my last two picks to take some P Richardson/Terrance Williams/Lafell/Kerley/Hogan/Mitchell
Not much for tips/tricks. I'm using my web app to track my portfolio and value relative to ADP, focusing on accumulating value on players I feel are already underpriced. QBs have started their summer ADP surge. Massive RB value in the 5th/6th with Ingram/Anderson/Ware falling victim to rookie/FA hype. That leaves me more open to grabbing WR where I would typically take RBs. TE is extremely deep, but very important. Lots of solid WR options late so I'm generally saving my last two picks to take some P Richardson/Terrance Williams/Lafell/Kerley/Hogan/Mitchell
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Wow, I was bummed I kept getting sniped on Rishard Matthews before the NFL draft.... feel like I dodged a bullet in those early drafts now.
brun
Footballguy
Yes, many felt a lot of potential early and I saw him going in the 7th round in April (slightly ahead of Decker). I have him in ~15% of my MFL10's, but that % will probably get smaller over the next couple of months though I may still grab him if he's available late enough. FBG's PPR rankings from the last 5 days have him averaging out at about the 38th WR while his MFL ADP (12 team PPR) since June 15 is in the mid-40's.
Borden
Footballguy
@BroadwayG
Just fired up FFPages for the first time in awhile, looks and feels way better. Great work, thank you.
Have you start compiling any numbers yet? Also, I know nothing about math or computers (other than to turn it off then back on before I call anyone with a problem) but if there's anything I can do to help, please let me know.
Just fired up FFPages for the first time in awhile, looks and feels way better. Great work, thank you.
Have you start compiling any numbers yet? Also, I know nothing about math or computers (other than to turn it off then back on before I call anyone with a problem) but if there's anything I can do to help, please let me know.
Borden
Footballguy
I'm not sure as far as numbers I'd like to see.
Maybe most typical team setup? Maybe a future or expected ADP? So guys who are gaining or losing value and where is needed to get them. Or maybe a highest and lowest taken in the last 5 days. Maybe something that tracks running expected points per week.
These are just some random ideas off the top of my head. I'm not sure how useful they would be. Just throwing them out there. Also, I have no idea how much work would be required.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
What do you think contributes to this? Is it because mostly industry folks draft in the Spring and the OTA reports bring the "regular folk" back to the hobby?
