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Best Ball (MFL10s, DRAFT, etc.)


Borden

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48 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

That was one of the things I liked about the site.

Do you mind sharing what kind of league you signed up for? Let us know how quickly it fills. I would like to try an auction after the NFL draft and am hoping that even will drum up enough interest to fill a league.

I just created an account. I didn't actually join a league. I probably won't due to their fees; $1 for my state, 4%+.99 to deposit via CC really reduces the return just to try one $20 league.

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20 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

I agree with you on Kamara. Disagree a bit on Mixon/Foreman, but LOVE the rookie talk. Thomas/Howard made a lot of people money last season(both were incredible values before the NFL draft). What are your opinions on the WR/TE's?

I haven't touched a rookie TE, yet.  Just because rookie TEs rarely make waves.  I'll take Witten/Clay, or similar, in the 14th or 15th and be satisfied with 50/500/4.  I may take a few post draft, though, depending on landing spot.

 

As for the WRs I've taken a couple Williams/Davis at ADP just to mix it up.  But I like Ross in 11-12th just because I can see him rising post-draft (see Kanara).  I've thrown some darts later when the "solid" NFL starters dry up a bit.  Henderson and maybe Samuel, I've slightly targeted.**

 

** I know very little about these guys, just cursory"research".  So take with a grain of salt.

Edited by jabarony
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Mixon is going to be the biggest climber after the draft. He's going in the 5th based on ADP (MFLs and Broadway's). 

I'm at 4.04 and will take him there right now, assuming some else doesn't take him in the next 6 picks. 

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On 4/13/2017 at 6:39 PM, jabarony said:

I haven't touched a rookie TE, yet.  Just because rookie TEs rarely make waves.  I'll take Witten/Clay, or similar, in the 14th or 15th and be satisfied with 50/500/4.  I may take a few post draft, though, depending on landing spot.

As for the WRs I've taken a couple Williams/Davis at ADP just to mix it up.  But I like Ross in 11-12th just because I can see him rising post-draft (see Kanara).  I've thrown some darts later when the "solid" NFL starters dry up a bit.  Henderson and maybe Samuel, I've slightly targeted.**

I only ask about TE because it seems like all the experts are absolutely gushing about the TE crop this year. Maybe part of that is due to mediocre or worse TE classes in the recent past but it seems like they were hyped going into the combine.... and after the combine every draft expert can rattle off half a dozen guys that could possibly have a big impact as a rookie. There are some people that think there will be three TE's go in the first round. Some of those teams have nobody to compete for targets(NYG/TB/JAX/DEN/NYJ/CLE/ARZ), some have big FA flops that have been overpayed and may be on the way out(PIT/MIA/BUF/SF), some have contracts coming up and it  might be time to go younger/cheaper(DET), some have over-achiever types that have probably reached their middling ceiling(TB/HOU), and several have guys at the very tail end of their career(DAL/BAL/TEN/CHI). I think Howard/Njoku are instant cogs in the offence and a big improvement at the position. A lot of people are saying one of Engram/Everett/Shaheen will be the fantasy stars and have the highest receiving ceilings of an already talented group. And lastly, Jake Butt would have gone much higher in the past several drafts but there's just so much talent in front of him(and he is recovering from an injury) so he's been pushed down and forgotten about this year despite having potential.

 Completely agree with you that TE's usually are oversold and under deliver but this year seems like a possible exception. It's a fun group to speculate about. 

At WR I haven't touched Henderson yet, but I know there is a dedicated group of analysts that believe in him. I have been more focused on Zay Jones/Godwin/Schuster as guys that have a good shot at contributing as a rookie. Other last round swings at catching lightning in a bottle that I have on the same tier as Henderson include Westbrook, Cannon, and Kupp(only in ppr obviously). The smart folks I listen to that watch more tape than I do seem to love ArDarius Stewart/Hanson/Ford/Taylor more than that last group I mentioned but I'm struggling to understand the love.

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5 hours ago, Borden said:

Mixon is going to be the biggest climber after the draft. He's going in the 5th based on ADP (MFLs and Broadway's). 

I'm at 4.04 and will take him there right now, assuming some else doesn't take him in the next 6 picks. 

Why anyone would take Cook in the late 30's over Mixon in the 60's is an absolute mystery to me. They both have bust potential in a muddled backfield but I just see Mixon as having such a higher ceiling if he ever has the opportunity to be "the guy" at some point in the season. I couldn't agree with you more. 

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6 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

Why anyone would take Cook in the late 30's over Mixon in the 60's is an absolute mystery to me. They both have bust potential in a muddled backfield but I just see Mixon as having such a higher ceiling if he ever has the opportunity to be "the guy" at some point in the season. I couldn't agree with you more. 

Fournette at 3.03

Mixon at 4.04

McCaffery 4.06

Cook still on the board at 5.01

My theory (which won't matter in less than two weeks) is that whatever team takes Mixon will NEED a RB while the Cook team might just be a team looking to upgrade. My logic is that Cook has never been convicted of anything and Mixons video is everywhere so why would a team take that PR nightmare if they are just trying to upgrade. Thus, Mixon should have a straight line to the top of a depth chart. Plus, I think Cook is scheme (zone) dependant.

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2 hours ago, CabinFever said:

Thoughts on taking Fat Eddie and K. Benjamin at the 5.12/6.1 turn? RBs were looking pretty thin (even Mixon was already gone) and went with Lacy over Forte, Prosise, Montgomery, Abdullah...and went Benjamin over Crowder, Marshall, Corey Coleman, and the rookie WRs...

How many RB's did you have in your first four picks?

That's an area(pick #60) where I generally don't chase RB, but I typically have at least one in my first four picks. Drafting from the 12 spot I would have no problem taking McCoy/Freeman(or even reaching for Gurley) at 2.01. And at 4.01 I have no problem drafting Miller/Hyde(or even reaching for Ingram). So in your shoes I'd have 2RB/2WR and wouldn't consider any of the RB's you listed. To me, Benjamin/Crowder are the safest names. But if you didn't have a RB in your first four picks then waiting until pick #84 to select your first RB takes some nerve(and imo a whole lotta roster spots at RB). 

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So doing my first MFL10 and maybe I'm going a tad rookie heavy? Just seems the upside is there with PPR scoring and Davis in the 8th seemed very good value if he does end up in Tennessee or Baltimore as a potential #1WR

1.12 Michael Thomas

2.1 Brandon Cooks

3.12 Christian McCaffrey 

4.1 Dalvin Cook

5.12 Kelvin Benjamin

6.1 Eddie Fat Lacy

7.12 Corey Coleman 

8.1 Corey Davis 

 

Edited by CabinFever
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Cobb just went at 8.07, wow. I predrafted 7 picks out (from my 8.04 pick) and thought Cobb would be gone in those 8 so I had Marty B qued at 1 and Cobb next. Should've done it the other way. 

Edited by Borden
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Cobb's ADP is so weird. I was feeling great taking him at the 5/6 turn in my initial drafts.

If anyone likes micro-managing draft lists that you can copy and paste into the MFL 'My Draft List', I've got one up on my site.  You'll need to make an account if you don't have one already.

https://www.ffpages.com/mfl10/DraftList

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My first one just is just about wrapped up. I'm done pick though. Here's the team:

 

Cousins, Kirk WAS QB 10.04

Dalton, Andy CIN QB 12.04

Glennon, Mike CHI QB 14.04

 

Freeman, Devonta ATL RB 1.09

Johnson, Duke CLE RB 9.09

Mixon, Joe FA RB (R) 4.04

Sims, Charles TBB RB (Q) 13.09

West, Charcandrick KCC RB 17.09

 

Bryant, Martavis PIT WR (S) 8.04

Hill, Tyreek KCC WR 5.09

Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 2.04

Jeffery, Alshon PHI WR 3.09

Ross, John FA WR (R) 16.04

White, Kevin CHI WR (Q) 11.09

 

Allen, Dwayne NEP TE 15.09

Eifert, Tyler CIN TE (Q) 6.04

Henry, Hunter LAC TE 7.09

 

Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB 19.09

Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 20.04

Raiders, Oakland OAK Def 18.04

Edited by Borden
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2 hours ago, Borden said:

My first one just is just about wrapped up. I'm done pick though. Here's the team:

  Reveal hidden contents

Cousins, Kirk WAS QB 10.04

Dalton, Andy CIN QB 12.04

Glennon, Mike CHI QB 14.04

 

Freeman, Devonta ATL RB 1.09

Johnson, Duke CLE RB 9.09

Mixon, Joe FA RB (R) 4.04

Sims, Charles TBB RB (Q) 13.09

West, Charcandrick KCC RB 17.09

 

Bryant, Martavis PIT WR (S) 8.04

Hill, Tyreek KCC WR 5.09

Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 2.04

Jeffery, Alshon PHI WR 3.09

Ross, John FA WR (R) 16.04

White, Kevin CHI WR (Q) 11.09

 

Allen, Dwayne NEP TE 15.09

Eifert, Tyler CIN TE (Q) 6.04

Henry, Hunter LAC TE 7.09

 

Buccaneers, Tampa Bay TBB 19.09

Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 20.04

Raiders, Oakland OAK Def 18.04

High risk/high reward, in particular with your WR's. I guess that makes sense in a winner-take-all format though.

One of the few real "reaches" was Charcandrick West at RB. Is there a reason why you are particularly high on him? Or does it just mean you are particularly low on Ware?

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1 hour ago, BoltBacker said:

High risk/high reward, in particular with your WR's. I guess that makes sense in a winner-take-all format though.

One of the few real "reaches" was Charcandrick West at RB. Is there a reason why you are particularly high on him? Or does it just mean you are particularly low on Ware?

I took West in the 17th round, the last round before I took 3 Def. There was nothing left at RB.

In general I tried to go "safe" with Freeman, Hilton and Alshon. Then just hoping one of the remaining guys is able to put up something decent to backfill each starting spot. 

Edited by Borden
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9 minutes ago, Borden said:

I took West in the 17th round, the last round before I took 3 Def. There was nothing left at RB.

In general I tried to go "safe" with Freeman, Hilton and Alshon. Then just hoping one of the remaining guys is able to put up something decent to backfill each starting spot. 

Yeah, those three are pretty safe.

I was just curious if you were high on West or not. In general I think I have been high on Ware(and still kind of am) so maybe I'm just wondering why it feels like everyone else is lower on him than I am.

Also, do you start with 3 defenses this time of year and after you know what the bye weeks are(just recently) do you pair down to 2 defenses? Or are you a 3 defense guy all off-season? I ask because my draft strategy changes from February to August and the way my rosters are comprised often changes as well. 

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2 hours ago, CabinFever said:

Finished my first one and definitely went rookie crazy...but still like the team's potential

Winston, Palmer

McCaffrey, Cook, Lacy, Kamari, Perine, Mack

Thomas, Cooks, Benjamin, Coleman, Corey Davis, Doctson, Curtis Samuel

Howard, Njuko, Zach Miller

Eagles, Panthers

Dynasty MFL 10? 

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Just now, BoltBacker said:

Yeah, those three are pretty safe.

I was just curious if you were high on West or not. In general I think I have been high on Ware(and still kind of am) so maybe I'm just wondering why it feels like everyone else is lower on him than I am.

Also, do you start with 3 defenses this time of year and after you know what the bye weeks are(just recently) do you pair down to 2 defenses? Or are you a 3 defense guy all off-season? I ask because my draft strategy changes from February to August and the way my rosters are comprised often changes as well. 

Picking West wasn't an opinion of Ware, or even West, where I took him. It was just the closest available RB to starting. A Ware injury or even West spells him and gets a big play or something. Might be enough to help. Sorry there isn't a better explanation.

I went with 3 D because that was my plan going in, due to the schedule not being released yet. Also, I just tried to be safe with this first one. Same with 3 QBs, when normal I would go 2. 

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9 hours ago, Borden said:

Picking West wasn't an opinion of Ware, or even West, where I took him. It was just the closest available RB to starting. A Ware injury or even West spells him and gets a big play or something. Might be enough to help. Sorry there isn't a better explanation.

No reason to be sorry, I was just interested in the discussion.

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Thinking of cashing out already. Joined my 6th draft this morning and only 1 has had a slot earlier than 9. I feel like looking at win % of top 5 slots I am just throwing my money out the window. I don't mind random draft slots when I am with my friends in a league, part of the drill (however I focus on auction/dyno) but donating to strangers and corporations kinda chaps me. Odds are I get a higher spots but thats what I thought 2 or 3 times ago....MFL needs an auction setting because I will not stick around and I doubt I am the only one thinking about this. 

 

/rant

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28 minutes ago, starks said:

Thinking of cashing out already. Joined my 6th draft this morning and only 1 has had a slot earlier than 9. I feel like looking at win % of top 5 slots I am just throwing my money out the window. I don't mind random draft slots when I am with my friends in a league, part of the drill (however I focus on auction/dyno) but donating to strangers and corporations kinda chaps me. Odds are I get a higher spots but thats what I thought 2 or 3 times ago....MFL needs an auction setting because I will not stick around and I doubt I am the only one thinking about this. 

 

/rant

Do you think other people are are getting the higher draft positions because of where they work?

Where did you get the win percentage by position information from?

*These aren't meant to be condescending questions. I know on this board sometimes you need to clarify this.

Edited by Borden
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2 minutes ago, Borden said:

Do you think other people are are getting the higher draft positions because of where they work?

Where did you get the win percentage by position information from?

*These aren't meant to be condescending questions. I know on this board sometimes you need to clarify this.

I got the win % by position on this article...

https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/mfl10-roster-construction-strategy

As you can see your chances of finishing in the money are significantly higher based off draft position. Again I get it's random but I have had it drawing the 9-11 spots in every draft I have joined but one. This is one of the reasons I left all my redraft leagues but one, because its so old and I just want to stick to it with my buddies. 

As far as people getting higher draft positions I just assumed it was randomized (it had better be). 

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That's kinda what I am hoping for but just like Vegas you have to know when the odds are simply not in your favor and walk away. I am not Aaron H with over 200 drafts so far...just a guy that enjoys FF with a limited budget to put towards it. 

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44 minutes ago, starks said:

I got the win % by position on this article...

https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/mfl10-roster-construction-strategy

As you can see your chances of finishing in the money are significantly higher based off draft position. Again I get it's random but I have had it drawing the 9-11 spots in every draft I have joined but one. This is one of the reasons I left all my redraft leagues but one, because its so old and I just want to stick to it with my buddies. 

As far as people getting higher draft positions I just assumed it was randomized (it had better be). 

Thanks for link. Did you post that article already? If not, why would you be holding out on sharing that? Trying to hide info from the competition? :D Good info and that guy is just an enjoyable writer. 

Edited by Borden
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2 hours ago, starks said:

Thinking of cashing out already. Joined my 6th draft this morning and only 1 has had a slot earlier than 9. I feel like looking at win % of top 5 slots I am just throwing my money out the window. I don't mind random draft slots when I am with my friends in a league, part of the drill (however I focus on auction/dyno) but donating to strangers and corporations kinda chaps me. Odds are I get a higher spots but thats what I thought 2 or 3 times ago....MFL needs an auction setting because I will not stick around and I doubt I am the only one thinking about this. 

 

/rant

It took me 35 drafts to get my first draft slot of 1.

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1 hour ago, starks said:

I got the win % by position on this article...

https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/mfl10-roster-construction-strategy

As you can see your chances of finishing in the money are significantly higher based off draft position. Again I get it's random but I have had it drawing the 9-11 spots in every draft I have joined but one. This is one of the reasons I left all my redraft leagues but one, because its so old and I just want to stick to it with my buddies. 

As far as people getting higher draft positions I just assumed it was randomized (it had better be). 

Don't get discouraged. This is 2015 win% by draft slot.

1	0.061
2	0.071
3	0.065
4	0.069
5	0.082
6	0.09
7	0.085
8	0.093
9	0.091
10	0.096
11	0.094
12	0.103

 

Edited by BroadwayG
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  • 2 weeks later...
On 4/25/2017 at 11:49 AM, starks said:

I got the win % by position on this article...

https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/mfl10-roster-construction-strategy

As you can see your chances of finishing in the money are significantly higher based off draft position. Again I get it's random but I have had it drawing the 9-11 spots in every draft I have joined but one. This is one of the reasons I left all my redraft leagues but one, because its so old and I just want to stick to it with my buddies. 

As far as people getting higher draft positions I just assumed it was randomized (it had better be). 

That's interesting. I looked back at a few of my winning teams last year and early draft position seemed to be a non-factor. Instead it was more related to selecting David Johnson or Leveon Bell in the middle late 1st round and having a solid collection of WR's. JMO, but despite the statistics, I believe the real impact-full part of the draft starts after round 2.

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33 minutes ago, brun said:

That's interesting. I looked back at a few of my winning teams last year and early draft position seemed to be a non-factor. Instead it was more related to selecting David Johnson or Leveon Bell in the middle late 1st round and having a solid collection of WR's. JMO, but despite the statistics, I believe the real impact-full part of the draft starts after round 2.

Yeah, I am absolutely guilty of over analyzing numbers as well(although with me I kind of go down a roster construction rabbit hole). In the end all that REALLY matters is picking good players, in situations that don't hold them back, that don't get hurt. After all the hours of podcasts you listen to and articles you read the winner gets there the same way we did in the 80's and our hands were black from pouring over the boxscores in the USAToday.... and then checking your math twice if the game was close. There was NO Fantasy Football industry/analysis back then and yet the formula for success was the same.

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40 minutes ago, mrip541 said:

Too bad MFL is still holding my credits hostage...

I figured they'd run into this problem. This sucks. I hope to hear that everything gets worked out for you. 

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7 hours ago, mrip541 said:

Too bad MFL is still holding my credits hostage...

Yeah, I don't blame you for being frustrated. There really needs to be a bitcoin driven alternative in the market place.

Preferably one with a slow auction-and-go format with DEEP rosters. Maybe even IDP. 

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I had a ton of Ingram and Jeremy Hill and my value metrics went from awesome to a pile of doo in one week.  Moderately heavy on Ivory, Yeldon, Lafell and McKinnon, but those weren't as bad as they were all in the latter half of the drafts. Going all in on Martellus Bennett again this year, feel like he should be going along side Graham, not 2 rounds after.

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39 minutes ago, BroadwayG said:

I had a ton of Ingram and Jeremy Hill and my value metrics went from awesome to a pile of doo in one week.  Moderately heavy on Ivory, Yeldon, Lafell and McKinnon, but those weren't as bad as they were all in the latter half of the drafts. Going all in on Martellus Bennett again this year, feel like he should be going along side Graham, not 2 rounds after.

I definitely got stuck with a bunch of Ingram as well. I'll never learn when it comes to the Saints. All this talk about improving the defense and they spend both FA $ and draft capital at RB. At this point I just hope he gets traded. 

Ivory was rough for me but as you mention I got him so late it was really at RBBC/backup prices anyway. Only one share of LaFell but I thought he was a good value going into the MFL season. I had a small amount of Brate for TB and a bit of Murray/McKinnon for MIN. Just a bit of Sharpe in TEN.

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I'm not too concerned about Ingram, still feel he'll put up some respectable numbers, just sucks 'trading down' from an early 3rd to a late 4th with no return value. Poor Hill might go into the undrafted heap by the start of the season.

From Ingram/Hyde to Anderson/Ware, that 3rd tier of RBs all went from reasonably solid to thin ice.

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2 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

Anyone get their early rosters blasted by the draft?

Just the opposite posted this above and got the "dynasty MFL10" comment (that was appropriate and funny) but you couldn't draft this roster now the rookies ADP 

Winston, Palmer

McCaffrey, Cook, Lacy, Kamara, Perine, Mack

Thomas, Cooks, Benjamin, Coleman, Corey Davis, Doctson, Curtis Samuel

Howard, Njuko, Zach Miller

Eagles, Panthers

 
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  • 1 month later...

Doubtful I will play in any of the x2s, just not worth the energy and the significant ROI hit. I don't even like the 25s where you give 2 entry fees of your prize money to 2nd place. The only strategy change I would make would be a little extra in the 3 Def column if I felt really good about the other positions.

Not much for tips/tricks. I'm using my web app to track my portfolio and value relative to ADP, focusing on accumulating value on players I feel are already underpriced. QBs have started their summer ADP surge. Massive RB value in the 5th/6th with Ingram/Anderson/Ware falling victim to rookie/FA hype. That leaves me more open to grabbing WR where I would typically take RBs. TE is extremely deep, but very important. Lots of solid WR options late so I'm generally saving my last two picks to take some P Richardson/Terrance Williams/Lafell/Kerley/Hogan/Mitchell

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32 minutes ago, BoltBacker said:

Wow, I was bummed I kept getting sniped on Rishard Matthews before the NFL draft.... feel like I dodged a bullet in those early drafts now. 

Yes, many felt a lot of potential early and I saw him going in the 7th round in April (slightly ahead of Decker). I have him in ~15% of my MFL10's, but that % will probably get smaller over the next couple of months though I may still grab him if he's available late enough. FBG's PPR rankings from the last 5 days have him averaging out at about the 38th WR while his MFL ADP (12 team PPR) since June 15 is in the mid-40's.

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@BroadwayG

Just fired up FFPages for the first time in awhile, looks and feels way better. Great work, thank you.

Have you start compiling any numbers yet? Also, I know nothing about math or computers (other than to turn it off then back on before I call anyone with a problem) but if there's anything I can do to help, please let me know. 

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23 minutes ago, BroadwayG said:

Thanks for the kind words. What sort of numbers would you like to see? I haven't done anything specific for this year.

I'm not sure as far as numbers I'd like to see.

Maybe most typical team setup? Maybe a future or expected ADP? So guys who are gaining or losing value and where is needed to get them. Or maybe a highest and lowest taken in the last 5 days. Maybe something that tracks running expected points per week. 

These are just some random ideas off the top of my head. I'm not sure how useful they would be. Just throwing them out there. Also, I have no idea how much work would be required. 

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9 hours ago, BoltBacker said:

What do you think contributes to this? Is it because mostly industry folks draft in the Spring and the OTA reports bring the "regular folk" back to the hobby?

I think you hit it right on the head.

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