BoltBacker
Footballguy
Do we really have evolving strategies in FF, or is it really just more of an over correction based on what happened LAST year?
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Best Ball (MFL10s, DRAFT, etc.) (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Borden
- Start date
Borden
Footballguy
I think evolving is the perfect word because I think that’s what ends up happening. We get better and better very slowly. Some of it is random chance that we find something. Some of it being forced to change to by losing. And some of it is gained through high effort.
Especially in this thread we see a changing landscape too. Best ball is different than other forms of FF and those that carry the same principles from normal FF probably won’t fair as well. One thing that I’ve noticed is that the crowds are slow to react on rookies before the draft but now they are going too far the other way in terms of taking the young guys (especially at RB). I’m sure this settle down again once coverage by media swings back to the full teams in camp.
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
I think the crowd is early to react to rookies at the very top of their position, for instance Barkley this year or Cooper the year he came out.
You are right that they are quick to over-react to a player that falls into what most people consider a favorable position. We could probably call this the "Zay Jones" effect. There is one specific receiver that I am probably falling victim to the Zay-Jones-effect but for the most part I haven't seen many I'm all that interested in. If I had to name the 2018 version of Zay Jones it would probably be Dante Pettis. Which rookie player in particular do you think is getting drafted so high he would never get drafted on one of your teams even if he slipped more than a round lower than his ADP?
To be fair I have to admit that while I do generally miss land mines like Zay Jones I also often miss out on a guy like Cooper Kupp and JuJu Smith-Schuster. I owned exactly ZERO shares of them last year and it certainly would have been nice given their ADP.
brun
Footballguy
I've done a few. There doesn't seem to be any way to personalize your team page. Draft room is OK IMO.
You can turn off/on the draft notice settings. Unfortunately, the site default is "on" for most of the email notifications and you can't set your own defaults. You have to wait until the league fills before changing the settings.
The My Teams page has columns for Rank, Points, Dif. But I don't see a league standings page or window to show standing for teams in a particular league. Hopefully a league standings page will be in place during the season.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Most of the rookies in fact, but Guice in particular. MFL10s are ppr, and I don't see him catching passes with Chris Thompson there.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
No no I've done tons of auctions and prefer them to snake drafts, generally. And I've done lots of slow snake drafts and don't have a problem with the time factor. The issue for me is having multiple players nominated at the same time, and in the ones I have been involved in, there were no checks on how many players any one owner could nominate. These slow auctions were absolute #### shows and I'll never do one again. Totally different animal than a regular one player at a time auction.
Borden
Footballguy
Did a $1 12 team fast Draft this morning. The ADP needs to be reset as players are going no where near their ADP. Both above and below. At least you’re able to set a universal draft list. I’m going to have to spend some time fixing and tweaking my list before I do another one. It feels like some kind of Wild West drafting. You need to be true to your personal list because guys are coming off the board 2-3 rounds before you’d expect and others are sitting there 5 or more rounds than where you’d expect them to go.
The one thing that I have to adjust is moving RBs up and mid tier WRs down.
The one thing that I have to adjust is moving RBs up and mid tier WRs down.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Borden
Footballguy
It’s an app (website too?) called Draft. It’s a best ball league but not MFL/Fanball.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
Ah. thanks.
I'm still working on my draft list, but wanted to play small stakes this afternoon.
Borden
Footballguy
Check out Draft. It’s decent but the pay out structure is way different/worse. On a 1$ 12 team league $5 to 1st. $3 to 2nd. $1.80 to 3rd. $1 to 4th.
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Borden
Footballguy
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
I won a free entry into a golf league on draft a few months ago, I won so I had $25 in my account . I am doing a live draft like every other day, good times. They added $1 slow drafts so with my free entry because of my team with Hunter Henry on it I joined a slow one.
And yes guys they give you a free entry if you drafted Hunter Henry before the injury. Have to respect the site for that.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Running backs have been going really high in the league's I've played so far. Anybody have similar observations?
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
I've had the same experience.
More than half of the top 24 are RB's. Crazy. They are going so early that I rarely take one in the top three rounds. Reminds me of the "zero RB" fad not so long ago when EVERYONE was taking WR's in the first few rounds.
I love getting AJ Green near the bottom of the 2nd round this year.
yeah - a lot of people are taking Kamara/Gordon/Hunt/Fournette/Barkley over top WRs. But I get it, a lot of of RBs with solidified workloads are gone by round 3. I find I need to get one by round 3, and I definitely need to draft 1 running back in the first four rounds.
Borden
Footballguy
I’m not happy unless I draft at least 3 in the first 4 anymore.
In best I feel that WR is very devalued because I don’t have to guess which one to start. 100 point WRs are plentiful and you can field a pretty decent team with them.
I think there is a lot of value RBs in the 5th/6th round right now - namely Ronald Jones, Jay Ajayi, Sony Michel, Dion Lewis if he falls past the 4th, Alex Collins, & Chris Thompson.
Borden
Footballguy
Definitely. I’ve even pointed to Jones specifically myself in this thread. (However, his stock is rising quickly.) You could probably throw Drake in there too. There’s even some guys later that have decent best ball upside Giovanni Bernard.
The difference though is that the top guys have a much much better chance at 250+ points. For example, Nuk is considered a top 3 WR (him, AB, OBJ). He “only” scored 261 points last year. You can get 200 point WRs later. Guys like Diggs (199.9) and Alshon. Then you back fill tons of other guys late who you only need to to show up for a handful of games a year. These late round guys still hold some value even if they “bust”. They aren’t the true flyers that most of the late RBs are. In best ball, WR feels a lot like QB in most redraft type leagues.
Also, I don’t mean to seem like I’m calling down what you’re feeling/seeing in the drafts. I know exactly how it is and I’ve gone the WR early path. I don’t feel terrible IF I get my guy (Ronald Jones) but when you miss on getting him, it gets ugly fast. By the mid rounds, I end up staring at a bunch of decent WRs and then low end RBs. Now you’re stuck because either you punt on RBs until late and load up on flyers to take the better value WRs. Or you take this mid round guys and lose the value at WR.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
IMO this really depends if you are playing full PPR to RB's or not. If you are playing in a league where RB's get a full PPR I guess I feel like there are plenty of RB's that are pretty bust-proof later on. Not saying I like those leagues(I don't) but they are common and it makes those late RB's much, much safer.
When I look at the early RB only Gurley/Bell scored more than Hopkins 261. You would assume Zeke joins that and I'd lump him into that group that I think is truly SAFE to assume he scores more than that. After that I have question marks. I believe in Johnson's talent but will the new coaching staff use him like the old one did.... because not many teams use RB's like that. And his supporting cast is less than stellar to say the least and could completely implode if(when?) Fitz eventually starts to decline. I was more bearish on Gordon before the Hunter injury but he may be added to that "safe" group based on his receptions possibly going up, it's just hard to feel safe with any RB that relies on pure volume as much as he does. What happens if the Chargers ever find a guy that can avg 4.2yards/carry(gasp!). People used to blame it on his OL but they played well last year and Gordon still was running in the 3.Xyards/carry. I'm not nearly as comfortable with Barkley as I was with Elliot when he came into the league. He may be a better athlete than Elliot but doesn't seem as well-rounded a runner. People love to say he would have tore it up even more at Penn St and would have run between the tackles better IF only they would have had a better OL. Well, the NYG OL still isn't anything to write home about and again, how many NFL coaching staff's just use one RB? Not many, yet that work load seems baked into the Barkley ADP. This will sound blasphemous to some but I don't just assume Kamara is going to make a jump from last year or maybe even equal last season. Last year took unearthly efficiency but if he does even better this season more power to him. Kareem Hunt looked like a guy that was going into last season sharing a workload before the Ware injury. None of the backups stepped up last year so even when Hunt had his lulls he still kept most of the workload but the KC backfield looks deeper to me than it was last year without Ware. Fournette has room to grow if he's completely healthy all year, but he wasn't last year and he wasn't at LSU. He just looks like a guy that takes punishment when he runs and those guys get dinged up a lot.... and he has. Cook looked great when he played last season but does Murray go back to contributing zero? McCaffrey looked much more bullet proof before they added CJ Anderson and when the old coaching staff was preaching that job one is getting the ball out of Newton's hands quickly. I've never felt like that was a strong suit of Norv who typically wants to push the ball downfield and Norv doesn't have the best reputation for being flexible regarding his offense. Freeman not only took a step back last year but the entire offense did under the new coaching staff. You can point to his health but is it a fluke that a guy that size with that running style starts to wear down and that's not even mentioning the shadow of Coleman carving out a bigger role. Mixon is amazing to me in that it seems like everyone has all these reasons Marlon Mack can't be successful this year but Mixon pretty much has all the same flaws, but somehow people just wave away his ypc and say that his OL has improved(even though the INDY OL seems to have improved as well). In CIN Bernard is pretty good yet people think that he'll be completely benched for Mixon and in INDY everyone assumes two day rookie 3 RB's and Turbin are going to cut into any upside Mack has. I could even make the argument that there's a better chance that the INDY offense has a huge turnaround(if Luck plays) than CIN suddenly becomes a top offense. Meh, give me Mack in the 8th/9th instead of Mixon in the 2nd/3rd any day. I'll take Green/Mack over Mixon/Doctson for instance. McKinnon is pure projection that he's going to be able to hold up to a workload that he's never had before. And he has had multiple opportunities to take a workload all to himself before despite the current narrative.
It's not that I expect all those guys to bust, it's just a little surprising to me that people seem to be willing to take those question marks over players like Julio Jones, AJ Green, D.Adams(with no Jordy), and K.Allen(with no Henry). Sometimes even Mike Evans. I guess those receivers have some health concerns but taking a RB over a WR because of injury concerns seems dubious to me as well. If you don't assume there are injuries I can see a scenario where more than half those RB's disappoint more easily than that group of WR's. While I've never been a "zero RB" guy in the past my teams are looking more "zero RB" than ever before this year, which is fine with me. I will admit that I'm more risk adverse in the first few rounds than many and do live by the old adage that you are more likely to lose your league in the first few rounds than you are to win your league in the first few rounds of your draft. For me it's less about finding the 250pt guy than accumulating a few 200pt guys and avoiding the 150pt guys in the early rounds. And it's also easier to be the "zero RB" guy if everyone else is leaning so hard the other way.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Wide receivers will score more points in PPR so I think you're much better flexing one over a running back. After Gurley and Bell go, every wide receiver will have more points projected than a running back with similar ADP. A lot of wide receivers will get 800 total yards but that's not great in your flex. Drafting a lot of the mid to late round ones could make a viable strategy in best ball, say 7 or better 8, because they tend to have good weeks and bad weeks.
But I've grown frustrated in these leagues when I try to wait for running back and end up getting Chris Thompson as my number one or worse. Guys who have Kamara and Cook still take McKinnon and Penny in rounds 3 and 4. Zero running back doesn't work when drafters who have them keep reaching for the mid range running backs anyway. My best draft I've had so far I got Bell and Howard in 1 and 2 then loaded up on WR the rest of the way.
I think as we get closer to August this will even out a little when the room isn't filled with "sharks". Rodgers and Gronk for instance will creep up close to the 2nd round also.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
I'm coming around on this strategy only because how much drafters over-value running backs. These 800 yard receivers are not a reason to pass up Antonio Brown or AJ Green in a vacuum, but the running back bubble forces you give them up.
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Borden
Footballguy
I did a poor job of explaining my position. I’m not passing on those big 3 WRs at 5,6,7. But after that, I’m going going after RBs aggressively. Then there’s the next tier of Julio, Thomas, Allen (maybe Tyreek too) at the end of the second. If I go WR, WR, then after that it’s all RB for me. Which really handcuffs your draft strategy. TE is one of the spots that’s difficult to make up for late and QB’s are being way too undervalued in best ball. It’s a carrying over from redraft that I’m starting to think is a bad decision. In redraft there’s so many options that will be fine for a weekly start but in best ball results are cumulative and streaming isn’t really an option. You can indirectly stream with 3+ picks but that’s costly in it's self.cloppbeast said:
Borden
Footballguy
PPR Results from last year
I’m not sure how this applies to current discussion yet but thought I would share.
Breakdown:
I’m not sure how this applies to current discussion yet but thought I would share.
Breakdown:
350+ : 1 RB 0 WR
300+: 3 RB 2 WR
250+: 7 RB 7 WR
200+: 13 RB 18 WR
150+: 28 RB 39 WR
100+: 48 RB 66 WR
300+: 3 RB 2 WR
250+: 7 RB 7 WR
200+: 13 RB 18 WR
150+: 28 RB 39 WR
100+: 48 RB 66 WR
barackdhouse
Footballguy
In the next classic MFL10 draft on Fanball. Need 7 more. Come join it with me and we can discuss a little on here.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Invitation sent.
And for those following along but not in that auction best ball league, you should know that it's a 32 player auction so the 5 defense strategy isn't nearly as crazy as it may sound.
Auctions are fascinating because in a draft all it takes is ONE crazy person to draft a guy too early and you get a skewed idea of what the public thinks of that player. In an auction it takes at least two crazy people to be really high on a player.
Auction strategy is also much deeper than draft strategy(at least imo). Maurile will be in the new auction and I'll be interested to see the strategy he employs.
Borden
Footballguy
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
The first week was going a bit slow so we voted to increase the pace. The first one will take just over 3 weeks, I expect the next one to take just under 3 weeks. That's for 10teams x 32player.
We also only nominate players M-F(actually Monday PM - Friday AM so the owners have a three day weekend if they want to be offline without missing out on bidding on a player). The 12 hour clock has worked well imo.
Borden
Footballguy
These RBs are going earlier and earlier. It’s getting out of control. Playing on Draft means that crowd is slower to adjust than the MFL crowd. I apologize for my comments above. I don’t think that I’m wrong still because of the value remaining late at WR vs the dredges left at RB. Deangelo Henderson was the best RB remaining at 16.8. No joke. Peyton Barber went at 14.10. Jordan Howard went at 3.2! I started that dang hype train and think it’s crazy. But if you don’t then you end up with the likes of Henderson and Barber at the end when could’ve had WRs that put up 150 points last season (Mike Wallace).
I’m also starting to go QB a bit early (round 5). And I’m always about those big 3 TEs (Gronk, Kelce, Ertz). Those 3 are like crack to me. I have to get over their value (or lack there of) in best ball but Henry going down hurts my waiting on QB.
Team from the 5...
I’m also starting to go QB a bit early (round 5). And I’m always about those big 3 TEs (Gronk, Kelce, Ertz). Those 3 are like crack to me. I have to get over their value (or lack there of) in best ball but Henry going down hurts my waiting on QB.
Team from the 5...
Cam, Eli
DJ, Ronald Jones, Cohen, Gio, Riddick, Henderson
Fuller, Golladay, M. Bryant, Meredith, Wilson, Wallace, Williams (LAC), Torrey Smith
Gronk, Kelce
DJ, Ronald Jones, Cohen, Gio, Riddick, Henderson
Fuller, Golladay, M. Bryant, Meredith, Wilson, Wallace, Williams (LAC), Torrey Smith
Gronk, Kelce
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I've reconsidered this.Borden said:
With 20 players nominated 5 days a week it takes nearly a month to complete an auction of 320 players.
I think in the next best-ball auction we run we'll have each team(of 10 total teams) nominate 4 players a day, 5 days a week for a total of 200 players nominated per week. That should comfortably allow us to finish in under 2 weeks and won't be as overwhelming as I had first anticipated.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Not sure if you are in already but there are two slots left(one if you haven't joined yet).
If anyone else that is interested in best-ball auctions(they are kind of rare) this is a great way to get your feet wet both in terms of $ and time. It's only $10 and more importantly there is a 12 hour clock so you only have to check in on the auction twice a day and if you time it right you won't miss out on any bids. In addition the Friday nominations start in the morning and the Monday nominations start in the PM so there is a three day window where you can just submit your highest bid on the players on the board, go enjoy your three day weekend completely off the grid(if you chose), and come back on Monday PM and never miss out on bidding on a player.
Hoping to start this auction on Monday and should finish in less than two weeks. Please message me if interested.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
This guy Jerick McKinnon keeps going earlier and earlier. I'm not sure how is ADP is in the 3rd because almost every league I play he goes in the 2nd. He loses most of his appeal going that early.
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
Shhhhhhhh.
He's a GREAT value in the late 2nd and if you really want to get your guy you had better take him in the early 2nd!
cloppbeast
Footballguy
I have a late 1st round value on him, but I play a lot of leagues. If I take him there every time I'd have him on all of my teams. That's bad voodoo. It means he would tear his ACL the first game. If his ADP creeps up I'll have to start taking him in the 2nd.
Dan Hindery
Moderator
Even if it feels a bit rich, McKinnon near the 2/3 turn makes sense IMO.
Nobody bats an eye when Devonta Freeman goes mid-2nd. Freeman has more competition for touches (Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith). He's probably not going to get the same pass game usage as McKinnon. And if you're looking for upside, maybe you break ties in favor of the offense led by Shanahan vs. the one with Sarkisian calling plays.
Nobody bats an eye when Devonta Freeman goes mid-2nd. Freeman has more competition for touches (Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith). He's probably not going to get the same pass game usage as McKinnon. And if you're looking for upside, maybe you break ties in favor of the offense led by Shanahan vs. the one with Sarkisian calling plays.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I think I just approach it differently when I see the draft tilting way too much in one direction. Seems to me like there must be an opportunity at a different position(s).
For instance I'm just finishing a deep SuperFlex league (10 team) where I was shocked how early QB's went. Quarterbacks were taken with 22 of the first 81 picks. I GUESS most people would have bent to the crowd and started drafting QB's early too, but it was a fun experiment to stick with my values at QB. In those situations I don't get the quality I usually try to get but I make up for it by getting a higher quantity of QB's. I took my first QB(Dalton) at pick #135. He was the 27th QB off the board. I will admit though that I was drafting from the middle of the round which makes it easier to wait on QB imo. If you have one of those end picks it's much tougher to be patient.
We are just wrapping up now but I'm pretty happy with my team overall given the fact it's a 2x league.
Borden
Footballguy
Were you able to transfer over any data from last years leagues? If so, any trends that popped up?
BroadwayG
Footballguy
I've only got historical player data up. Defenses are going much earlier. QBs much later.
Were you able to transfer over any data from last years leagues? If so, any trends that popped up?
BroadwayG
Footballguy
https://www.ffpages.com/mfl10/public/history
That's the player history page. I included 'league winners' where it only counts if the player made the difference between winning and not winning the league. Helps filter out the false positives that plain win rate gives.
That's the player history page. I included 'league winners' where it only counts if the player made the difference between winning and not winning the league. Helps filter out the false positives that plain win rate gives.
Borden
Footballguy
Any thing from last year? Like most common roster composition for winning teams? Or which position the winning teams typically took in the first 4 rounds?
I’m guessing not since you’ve been busy but I’m always interested.
Borden
Footballguy
BroadwayG
Footballguy
I had all the roster construction info up from Week 17 until last week when I changed the database over to 2018.
Borden
Footballguy
BroadwayG
Footballguy
It's not lost, I keep everything. I just don't have it readily available. Nothing that shook up my thought process for this year.
Borden
Footballguy
Added Basic Strategy to first post. If anyone has other links (maybe FFPages???) post the link with either an @ to me or a reply to any of my posts. Just so I get a notification. I pretty much read every post in here anyways but just in case.
