Thanks this is definitely my best one yet. I was debating Gore/Miller at 3, so I had to take him at 4. I'm constantly getting guys a round lower than their ADP for some reason in this one.
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Best Ball (MFL10s, DRAFT, etc.) (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Borden
- Start date
Touchdown There
Footballguy
I just did a couple of these at the $50 level. Thoughts:
- With the removal of the kicker, the optimal structure to me is 3 QBs, 3 TEs, and 3 Defenses. Exception being if you draft Rodgers or Luck in the 3rd, you probably only need one more QB. Possibly just 2 TEs if you draft Gronk or Graham. I see a lot of teams with 2 QBs.
- Focus on "high variance" players after round 5, especially at WR.
- Speaking of variance, most drafters do not grab the variance involved at the Defensive slot. Yes, I know you only start one D and they score the lowest amount of points, but when you look at defensive scoring it is not consistent at all. Most weeks you will have 2 of your 3 defenses score 8 points or below, but one may pop off 15-30 points. 2 defenses is too few for the variance and 4 defenses are too many because then you are reducing your RB\WR allocation. A good example is the Falcons, terrible D and they scored negative points in a few games last year, but they also scored 29 points in week 3 and 23 points in week 16.
- Older WRs have really good value.
- Do not draft rookies this year, especially in the first 3 rounds. I like Gurley and Gordon, but Gurley's knee is a concern and Gordon may be in more of a timeshare than people think for his ADP. Yeldon plays for the Jaguars. Abdullah is a decent risk in the 6th, maybe even the 5th with Joique Bell's knee. Perriman may be worth a shot in the 7th-8th with Steve Smith's age and a solid QB in Flacco.
Code:
Player 2014 Pts Bye DraftedNewton, Cam CAR QB 259.1 5 7.10Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB 335.2 11 8.03Stafford, Matthew DET QB 269.9 9 10.03Ball, Montee DEN RB 36.4 7 11.10Herron, Dan IND RB 65.8 10 17.10Hyde, Carlos SFO RB 74.1 10 4.03McFadden, Darren DAL RB 116.7 6 9.10Michael, Christine SEA RB 19.5 9 19.10Starks, James GBP RB 74.7 7 18.03Bowe, Dwayne CLE WR 129.4 11 12.03Britt, Kenny STL WR 134.4 6 15.10Johnson, Calvin DET WR 206.8 9 2.03Marshall, Brandon NYJ WR (P) 179.1 5 6.03Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 321.4 7 1.10Davis, Vernon SFO TE 61.0 10 16.03Graham, Jimmy SEA TE 218.5 9 3.10Thomas, Julius JAC TE 163.9 8 5.10Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def 112.0 10 20.03Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def 138.0 9 13.10Texans, Houston HOU Def 171.0 9 14.03
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Hawkeye21
Footballguy
I would love to do a slow auction. I know they do them on MFL but I've never done one.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
He went 1.2 in ffpc that started last week
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Touchdown There
Footballguy
You talking structure or just that my RBs suck?BroadwayG said:
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Zero RB strategy
Touchdown There
Footballguy
This was my first attempt of many, working on my third right now. CJ Spiller was sniped just ahead of me in the 4th and Ameer Abdullah was picked at 5.09 just before my 5.10. Those were my two "backup plans" in the middle rounds. RBs look to be going much faster in these drafts and QBs sinking. Someone will get hurt ahead of these 4 backup RBs and I am above average at the other positions.BroadwayG said:
No issues with the structure then? You just believe in RB RB RB in this format?
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Think of all the drafters last year that took Adrian Peterson with a top 2 pick and then matched him up with Doug Martin, Zac Stacy, or Andre Ellington in the 3rd? The most risk and the greatest turnover is at the RB position...not that I like this roster or anything. I will post the results of the draft I am in when finished. Went Graham at 2.11 and Rodgers at 3.02 just to test the strategy of rostering 2 QBs and TEs in order to have two more shots at the RB/WR position.
I typically try and go RB heavy early, but I'm in a draft where everyone else seemed to be in on that strategy as well so I chose to mix it up. Here's what I have through 18:Touchdown There said:
PLAYER 2014 YTD PTS BYE DRAFTED
Mariota, Marcus TEN QB ® - 4 16.04
Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 370.9 7 3.09
Bush, Reggie SFO RB 99.9 10 10.04
Dunbar, Lance DAL RB 49.2 6 15.09
Hill, Jeremy CIN RB 197.9 7 2.04
Johnson, David ARI RB ® - 9 9.09
Randle, Joseph DAL RB 40.4 6 4.04
Vereen, Shane NYG RB 161.3 11 6.04
Funchess, Devin CAR WR ® - 5 14.04
Jones, Julio ATL WR 287.6 10 1.09
Jones, Marvin CIN WR - 7 12.04
LaFell, Brandon NEP WR (P) 198.3 4 7.09
Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR 95.1 5 18.04
Randle, Rueben NYG WR 161.0 11 11.09
Robinson, Allen JAC WR 116.8 8 5.09
Ertz, Zach PHI TE 134.6 8 8.04
Housler, Robert CLE TE 19.0 11 17.09
Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def 138.0 9 13.09
I'm especially not a fan of having to chase RBs around the draft, but we'll see. Sometimes you have to go against the grain to find value.
Yeah this is stark contrast to my other draft I showed. I don't like it, but I was weak on RB (can't even feel good about Randle although he could be a league winner at 4) and needed to try and find someone who will give me usable weeks.
Yeah... the problem here is that you're going to be in a huge hole after the first few weeks where you have like .9 total RBs capable of producing points on their own on your roster and need to field 2. 3 QBs in the first 10 rounds and then going DST/DST in 13/14 is laughable, 5 WR is just not enough. You've illustrated the pitfalls of not knowing how to construct a best ball roster perfectly - I see people in my MFLs making these kinds of mistakes all the time, and it's pretty much the defining element of why these are profitable at scale (you're actually only competing with 8 or 9 teams, not the full 11).Touchdown There said:
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
I'm sure someone has already said it here but I hate that if someone takes the full 8 hours and times out that they automatically get the top guy on the adp list. They should get the bottom guy on the list. Why reward someone for grinding the draft to a halt?
The other issue I have is why do people sign up, knowing that the draft is going to start in mere minutes or hours and then can't even be bothered to make their very first pick in a timely fashion? Why do they even sign up and spend the $10 in the first place? I really don't get it. Yesterday the time between the league filling and drafting was to begin was less than 40 minutes. The guy who had the #2 pick didn't make a pick. 8 hours pass and only one pick made for the whole league. How do you have the time to click the button, sign up and log into the league page once it fills but you don't have the time to put two lousy names in the predraft list? Started one today and draft kicked off 4+ hours ago and not one pick yet. He visited the league page when the league filled and then disappeared just minutes before the draft started without putting as pick in. smh
The other issue I have is why do people sign up, knowing that the draft is going to start in mere minutes or hours and then can't even be bothered to make their very first pick in a timely fashion? Why do they even sign up and spend the $10 in the first place? I really don't get it. Yesterday the time between the league filling and drafting was to begin was less than 40 minutes. The guy who had the #2 pick didn't make a pick. 8 hours pass and only one pick made for the whole league. How do you have the time to click the button, sign up and log into the league page once it fills but you don't have the time to put two lousy names in the predraft list? Started one today and draft kicked off 4+ hours ago and not one pick yet. He visited the league page when the league filled and then disappeared just minutes before the draft started without putting as pick in. smh
rikishiboy
Footballguy
Here is my second effort...again from the 8 spot. I am weak again at rb,very weak, but hopefully strong enough elsewhere.
Qb --- Rodgers, kaeperneck
Rb --- Stewart, Abdullah, woodhead, sproles, Dunbar
Wr --- Thomas, Nelson, Decker, Fitzgerald, K. White, Strong, Dorsett, Lockett.
Te ---Olsen, eifert, green
Def --- ravens, 49ers
Qb --- Rodgers, kaeperneck
Rb --- Stewart, Abdullah, woodhead, sproles, Dunbar
Wr --- Thomas, Nelson, Decker, Fitzgerald, K. White, Strong, Dorsett, Lockett.
Te ---Olsen, eifert, green
Def --- ravens, 49ers
jeaton6
Footballguy
Seems like you may have over invested at RB. Top 4 picks all RBs? Going to be tough to compete with that WR corps.
thaniz
Footballguy
Yeah, wide receivers went flying of the board in round 3 and 4 so I kind of felt I "had" to take Gore vs. Ingram...
This is a perfectly fine group of WRs for best ball, a nice mix of floor and ceiling guys. Saying it's going to be tough to compete with this roster is just ignorance of the format. This team is pretty close to optimal. I would just like to see a slightly better TE situation. I would rather spend a 6th or 8th on Olsen or Bennett/Ertz and then pair him with Walker or Witten in the 11th, and stick with 2 guys who should finish in the top 8 to add another WR later in the draft.
freeannyong
Footballguy
Mine have taken on average a week to finish. I think they cut them off a week or so before the season starts
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
Borden
Footballguy
I've had them finish in 5 days but usually 10-12, as was already stated. Assume 2 weeks though. Be prepared to hate the 2 people from your league that slow everything down.I believe they run right up to the beginning of the season. If you read through their write up on pick times it says they will shorten the pick timer as it gets closer to the season because they don't want it to run into the actual season.Steeler said:
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Borden
Footballguy
I don't like Lockett and Strong. I think you might have been able to get Artis-Payne with one of those picks to back up Stewart.
It's difficult to really say though. It looks like you reached for a bunch of your guys and/or got stuck at the back of runs or bottom of teirs.
ourmanflint
Footballguy
Starting WR/WR/QB leaves a mighty big hole at RB. Especially if the rest of your league is going RB heavy early.
ourmanflint
Footballguy
I have a database all MFL 10's from last year.
Of the teams that won:
* 58% went RB with their 1st pick
* 27% went RB/RB
* 33% went WR with their 1st pick
* 12% went WR/WR
* 9% did not select a RB in the first 3 rounds
* 7% went TE with their 1st pick
Of the teams that won:
* 58% went RB with their 1st pick
* 27% went RB/RB
* 33% went WR with their 1st pick
* 12% went WR/WR
* 9% did not select a RB in the first 3 rounds
* 7% went TE with their 1st pick
jeaton6
Footballguy
I'm very familiar with the format. Where exactly is the floor in this WR group? Fitz/Floyd? Fitz I'd buy but not seeing it otherwise. Too much weekly boom/bust for my liking here at WR. Also I said difficult to compete with the WR corps not the "roster". You're making it sound like I #### over every aspect of the team. Thanks for putting words in my mouth though.RobMonge said:
jeaton6
Footballguy
Do you have the % of total teams that went down each of these paths? That is, what % of total teams selected TE with their first pick, etc?
ourmanflint
Footballguy
* 49% went RB with 1st pick
* 21% went RB/RB
* 41% went WR with 1st pick
* 18% went WR/WR
* 14% did not select a RB in first 3 rounds
* 9% went TE with 1st pick
plastik
Footballguy
The floor? This is a best ball league. What's the likelihood that there aren't going to be 3 startable WRs in a given week out of 7? Not to start a silly argument, but also, what's the point of saying "going to be tough to compete with that WR corps", if you didn't mean "tough to compete"? Is there an aspect of MFL10s where your WR corps are pitted against each other that I'm just finding out about?
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Borden
Footballguy
plastik
Footballguy
I would actually tend to agree that this is a fairly weak group of WRs and it will hold you back. And while you might be OK since it's best ball, there is a lot of weekly downside, as I would expect there to be several weeks where you struggle to start 3WRs who can break into double digit scores. The upside is certainly there, but the floor is low. It would be a more competitive roster if either Ingram or Freeman had been a WR selection, with one of the late WR selections being swapped for a cheap upside play (A Helu, Dunbar, J. White type). My two cents...
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plastik
Footballguy
Bryant, Dorsett, and T. Smith are pretty clear boom/bust guys, no? And Robinson (due to Bortles) and Fitz (as evidenced over the last few years) both seem capable to putting up stinkers. Baldwin (with additions like Graham and Lockett) and M. Floyd (with Stevie) both seem like they'll decline a bit and had already put up a bunch of <10 point showings in 2014. I guess you could call a WR2s and WR3s scoring in the 7-10 point range a decent floor, but it seems to me a sort of floor that won't win the league for you. Who knows though? We'll find out by December...
FF Wiseguy
Footballguy
Joined. Hoping to improve on my first team:
QB - Manning, Bortles, Sanchez
RB - Forte, Crowell, McFadden, Ball, Dunbar, Allen, Cobb
WR - Nelson, Matthews, Bryant, Floyd, Perriman, Moncrief
TE - Graham, Amaro
DEF - Seahawks, Bears
Taking a top QB/TE combo really left me thin at RB2, but considering the circumstances, I'm okay with how my RB/WR corps turned out. I have a decent amount of options to cobble together 16 RB2 weeks, though getting someone like Sproles or Woodhead would have been smart.
Seeing as how I'm probably going to be starting 4 WRs most weeks, I probably should have gotten one more WR, preferrably a high floor vet.
If I was going to go 3 deep at a position, I should have made it TE instead of QB once I got Manning.
One of my weaker MFL10 teams, but definitely a learning experience with the early QB/TE combo.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
I have Calvin Johnson and D. Thomas at WR. There was no reason to overload the roster allocation to WR with these two on board and being weak at RB. The QB, WR, TE and D positions are above average on this attempt.
I am confident this roster will end up in the top half of the league points by week 16. If you want to roll out a $100 wager on this roster not being competitive, PM me and lets work it out.
plastik
Footballguy
That's pretty bold wager with this group of RBs:
Ball, Montee DEN RB 36.4 7 11.10
Herron, Dan IND RB 65.8 10 17.10
Hyde, Carlos SFO RB 74.1 10 4.03
McFadden, Darren DAL RB 116.7 6 9.10
Michael, Christine SEA RB 19.5 9 19.10
Starks, James GBP RB 74.7 7 18.03
You'll definitely need an injury to a starter, AND for the backup you drafted to dominate usage, to win that bet, imo. Pretty risky. Seems to me like Herron, McFadden, and Michael would all split snaps evenly at best should the guy ahead of them go down.
jabarony
Footballguy
I'll sit this one out. I'm thinking the draft wont be too different than the one we just completed seeing as nothing has changed in the last week.
Plus you guys were too good. Any dtaft I do usually has 3-4 guys 'fall' (not even big falls) to me. I didn't get one this time. My plans kept getting blown up.
I'll jump back in at take 3 or 4.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
No matter what way you draft, other posters will consider you "weak" somewhere. I like your Perriman pick. McFadden or Ball could surprise. I firmly believe in 3 defenses.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Reading comprehension not a strong point for some in this thread. I do mean tough to compete in light of the WR corps. And as stated above by another I do think putting together 3 solid scores each week from these 7 is going to be tough.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Nothing wrong with a fun wager. I have done three of them on this board over the years and I am 3-3. I think that one tactic posters can't see in my draft logic is that all of my backup RBs are from high powered offenses with lots of touchdowns. RB is the #1 most volatile position.
Ball - Nose for the endzone. Even if CJ holds the starting job I believe that Ball will be the goal-line back and knock out 4-8 TDs. Will be a monster if CJ goes down.
Herron - Purely a backup play in the 17th if old man goes down. Top 5 offense, tons of TDs.
McFadden - Jerry Jones did not bring him in to automatically slot him as a backup. He could win the job outright in camp behind the best oline in the NFL. I'll take the rejuvenated 27 year old 1st round pick over the 5th round projected starter with a 4.6x 40 yard combine time. Never liked McFadden in Oakland and never drafted him before. Love him in Dallas because the Cowboys do.
Michael - Purely a backup play. Lynch is a strange cat, never know what will happen, could also be traded. 19th round.
Starks - Purely a backup play. Lacy has already been concussed twice in the NFL.
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burnall
Footballguy
I really have no issue with the WR WR TE start. the thing i have a problem is that you went Graham in the third, then JT in the 5th(dident really need a TE here), and WR again in the 6th, i feel the 5th and 6th is where you should have taken at least 1 if not 2 shots at RB
but hey at the end of the year this team could be beastly.
burnall
Footballguy
On another note just finnished up my MFL10
Player 2014 YTD Pts Bye Drafted
Manning, Eli NYG QB 289.8 11.05
Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 370.9 3.05
Allen, Javorius BAL RB ® (O) - 15.05
Freeman, Devonta ATL RB 83.7 9.05
Martin, Doug TBB RB 70.0 8.08
Randle, Joseph DAL RB 40.4 5.05
Sproles, Darren PHI RB 139.8 13.05
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB 137.1 4.08
Agholor, Nelson PHI WR ® - 6.08
Evans, Mike TBB WR 228.7 2.08
Hardy, Justin ATL WR ® - 17.05
Hurns, Allen JAC WR 151.2 819.05
Moncrief, Donte IND WR 91.5 10.08
Smith, Devin NYJ WR ® - 16.08
Wallace, Mike MIN WR 212.8 7.05
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 266.4 1.05
Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 59.1 12.08
Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 123.0 18.08
Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def 108.0 20.08
Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def 138.0 14.08
Player 2014 YTD Pts Bye Drafted
Manning, Eli NYG QB 289.8 11.05
Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 370.9 3.05
Allen, Javorius BAL RB ® (O) - 15.05
Freeman, Devonta ATL RB 83.7 9.05
Martin, Doug TBB RB 70.0 8.08
Randle, Joseph DAL RB 40.4 5.05
Sproles, Darren PHI RB 139.8 13.05
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB 137.1 4.08
Agholor, Nelson PHI WR ® - 6.08
Evans, Mike TBB WR 228.7 2.08
Hardy, Justin ATL WR ® - 17.05
Hurns, Allen JAC WR 151.2 819.05
Moncrief, Donte IND WR 91.5 10.08
Smith, Devin NYJ WR ® - 16.08
Wallace, Mike MIN WR 212.8 7.05
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE 266.4 1.05
Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE 59.1 12.08
Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 123.0 18.08
Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def 108.0 20.08
Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def 138.0 14.08
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FF Wiseguy
Footballguy
I like your roster. You assembled a pretty optimal RB corps considering you started in the 4th. I think 11/12 could have been spent on WR instead of taking backup QB/TEs. I think you need a little more floor in your WR corps, as getting 2-3 starts out of your non Evans WRs is a little iffy. But you have just enough to generate good lineups while you wait for your upside guys to grow into their roles.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Totally agree on JT being a bad pick in the 5th. I was tilted from Abdullah getting sniped one slot ahead of me at the 5.09. He is one of my favorite plays this year and think the stars are aligning for him with Bell's knee. I also think that one of Detriot and NE were looking at bringing in Ray Rice, but reports are that top brass stepped in and squashed it.
burnall
Footballguy
good efford like the team, if you noticed you where weak at RB maybe throw a few more picks at the position then to cover the weakness, you know DT Nelson Decker and fitz can handle your 3 WR spots most the season so you probably dident need to darft as many WR. at RB your only starter is steward the rest are boom bust roll players on a week to week basis.
