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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Derrick Henry, Titans


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1 hour ago, Milkman said:

It's not a zero sum game. Losing this % of weight doesn't necessarily mean he's going to lose this % of power. 

No, but it's also not the game you think it is.  You're under the assumption he's got 15 lbs of fat to lose?

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Oh hell no I ain’t reading that 

there is no presser on Saturday. There are usually guessers on ff sites- because that's what we want them to do- but don't leap like it's news.  Jim Wyatt will absolutely have ya covered here. He

Derrick Henry going 99 yards while stiff-arming people into the sun weeks after everyone who drafted him cut him, traded him or vowed never to start him again is the most Derrick Henry thing ever.

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An evaluator indicated to NFL Media reporter Kimberly Jones that he could not think of an accurate NFL comparison for Alabama RB Derrick Henry.

 

Brandon Jacobs is the most common comparison you're likely to hear for Henry come draft day, but this particular evaluator's not tossing the easy comp out there. "To be that big and have such good feet [is rare]," he told Jones, "And when you watch the tape, you really don't see anyone catching him from behind." He's not the only one who came away from the combine super-impressed with the 6-foot-3, 247-pound Heisman winner, as FOX Sports' Peter Schrager wrote that Henry "blew everyone away" in Indianapolis due to his 4.54-second sprint in the 40-yard dash as well as phenomenal leaps horizontally (10-foot-10) and vertically (37 inches). His three-cone drill time of 7.20 seconds was less impressive, but nobody should be surprised that his lateral quickness failed to measure up. NFL Media's Charles Davis projected Henry to the Seahawks at pick No. 26 in his most recent mock draft.
 
 
Source: NFL.com
Mar 3 - 8:41 PM

 

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On 2/27/2016 at 11:27 AM, bostonfred said:

Brandon Jacobs might be a size comparison, but his college stats were non existent and he was a 4th round pick.  It's a lazy comparison.  We don't say that anyone 5'9" 210 who runs a 4.45 is going to have the exact same career. 

 

 

Here is another "lazy comparision" for you from Daniel Jeremiah below. 

 

 

bit.ly/1RIiteM 

 

Running back: Alabama's Derrick Henry and former pro Brandon Jacobs

You just don't find running backs with these guys' combination of size and speed. Both are tall, high-cut runners with a very physical style. I thought their top speed was comparable on tape, and it checked out at the combine. Henry ran a 4.54-second 40-yard dash, and Jacobs ran a 4.5640 in the 2005 combine. Henry isn't very elusive, but if he gets a crease, he's a load to bring down at the second and third level -- just like Jacobs during his playing days. In terms of draft position, Henry will end up getting picked higher than Jacobs, who was a fourth-round choice by the New York Giants in '05. I would peg Henry in the early portion of the second round. Jacobs was a very, very good player early in his career before fading, and I don't know if longevity is on Henry's side, either, just because of the punishment his style invites. But I think he'll be strong early on.

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On 2/29/2016 at 5:08 PM, Xue said:

 

Alabama O-line in 2015 was not as good as year's past.  They didn't use a FB and ran out of shotgun or pistol a lot more.

From what I saw of their use of Henry was that he often had a FB leading the way for him. His most effective runs were to the outside of the tackles with linemen pulling outside and the FB in front of him, the WR do a good job of blocking on some of these runs as well helping Henry to get that lane to run through.

He shows some good burst running inside at times also when there is a hole for him to hit and build momentum. If that isn't there he hesitates and waits for something to open up for him and it usually doesn't and he gets tackled for loss or minimal gain.

He does not really create on his own well and that is the main problem I see with Henry. While Alabama may not have been as good as recent years on their offensive line it still was better than 99% of college teams and blocking was there when Henry was effective. The Clemson game may be the best example of what to expect from Henry in the NFL although I doubt any NFL team will give Henry the ball as much as Alabama did towards the end of the season.

Here is a decent article about Henry that I concur with for the most part.

Edited by Biabreakable
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I get why people make the comparison.   There just aren't that many guys with his size and speed playing running back.

But Jacobs had 220 total carries in college, 150 of which were in 1-AA.  He averaged 6 yards a carry,  same as Henry,  but Henry had 600 carries for 3600 yards against much tougher competition.

 

If you want to talk about why his college workload might not be good for his NFL longevity,  we've got a conversation.   But there's a big skill difference.   

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

I get why people make the comparison.   There just aren't that many guys with his size and speed playing running back.

But Jacobs had 220 total carries in college, 150 of which were in 1-AA.  He averaged 6 yards a carry,  same as Henry,  but Henry had 600 carries for 3600 yards against much tougher competition.

 

If you want to talk about why his college workload might not be good for his NFL longevity,  we've got a conversation.   But there's a big skill difference.   

I'm not sure that Jacobs' lack of usage was necessarily and indictment of his skill.  He was stuck behind not one, but two RBs that would eventually be top 5 overall picks in the NFL draft.  It was generally thought that he was a very good runner himself and likely could have transferred to be the starter at quite a few major universities had he been willing to sit out.

That's not to say there's no skill difference, just that it is an unknown.  We never got to see how Jacobs would perform against top college programs (he was a monster in the only game where he got significant touches) not due to lack of skill, but due to very very rare circumstance.

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ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. noted that Alabama RB Derrick Henry "looks like a safer bet for Round 2 than [he] did coming in [to the NFL Scouting Combine]."

 

"Henry showed his long speed with a 4.54 40 at 247 pounds, which reads like a 4.2-type number for a guy 40 pounds lighter," Kiper wrote. "The question is whether he can make you miss before he gets to that speed." The 6-foot-3 battering ram of a back also showed off his leaping ability with a 10-foot-10 broad jump and 37-inch vertical. While analysts and teams will continue to question his ability to dance laterally, perhaps the most impressive compliment handed out to Henry over the combine week came when an evaluator told NFL Media reporter Kimberly Jones that he could not think of an NFL comp for the Heisman winner. "[Y]ou really don't see anyone catching him from behind," the analyst said.
 
 
Source: ESPN Insider
Mar 5 - 5:27 PM

 

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An NFL scout who spoke with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel sees Alabama RB Derrick Henry as comparable to Packers RB Eddie Lacy.

 

"[Henry's] the workhorse," the scout said, while another told the Journal-Sentinel that the 6-foot-3, 247-pounder's a "great kid," adding, "Great production. Strong runner. Had a lot of wear and tear. Upright style of running." As to that "wear and tear" the scout alludes to, perhaps the biggest question facing Henry--one that no team can answer in workouts or interviews--is just how much tread was run off the tire by Saban and Kiffin at Alabama. Henry received 395 carries last season. That concern aside, though, his stock's on the rise after a nice combine showing and he should be considered a strong possibility for the second round, with a legitimate chance at cracking the back half of Day 1 depending on how the first round unfolds.
 
 
Mar 6 - 1:19 PM

 

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I was searching for an article on him the other day and found an article dated December 1 which was a quick writeup from Daniel Jeremiah where he asks 5 NFL execs their comp for Henry. 3 said Jacobs, Blount and Lacy got a vote each.

 

This got me thinking. It seems that if you comp him to Jacobs you are being negative, or at least that's the vibe I get from pro-Henry supporters. Meanwhile the preferred comp for pro-Henry supporters seems to be Eddie George.

 

So this is what got me thinking this thought. Jacobs had higher YPC then George and to my eye test was a more explosive player. Eddie was steady, crazy reliable, but his career HIGH YPC was 4.1 and in 7 out of 9 seasons he averaged less than 4 YPC. Eddie was no dynamo as a receiver either but he offered some production while Jacobs was closer to Alfred Morris wasteland.

 

So what's my point? At the end of the day, whether you think his talent level is the next steady Eddie or Brandon Jacobs it is really an insult or high praise either way? The major difference in those two players was not talent it was Eddie's ability to carry a massive workload and Jacobs inability with the secondary difference being Eddie was a true three down back . So to me it really does not matter which side of that comp, if any, you want to believe in, how successful Henry will be is ultimately going to boil down to how much he can remain healthy enough to get a big load and for how long.

 

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13 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

This is close to sacrilege since he's my favorite player ever but, even thought he's taller, could a comp be Bo Jackson?

It's an interesting thought, because if it were 1986 and Henry was coming out with that production and those numbers at the combine he'd probably be the #1 pick just like Bo was.  Amazing how different of an era we live in now.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

I was searching for an article on him the other day and found an article dated December 1 which was a quick writeup from Daniel Jeremiah where he asks 5 NFL execs their comp for Henry. 3 said Jacobs, Blount and Lacy got a vote each.

 

This got me thinking. It seems that if you comp him to Jacobs you are being negative, or at least that's the vibe I get from pro-Henry supporters. Meanwhile the preferred comp for pro-Henry supporters seems to be Eddie George.

 

So this is what got me thinking this thought. Jacobs had higher YPC then George and to my eye test was a more explosive player. Eddie was steady, crazy reliable, but his career HIGH YPC was 4.1 and in 7 out of 9 seasons he averaged less than 4 YPC. Eddie was no dynamo as a receiver either but he offered some production while Jacobs was closer to Alfred Morris wasteland.

 

So what's my point? At the end of the day, whether you think his talent level is the next steady Eddie or Brandon Jacobs it is really an insult or high praise either way? The major difference in those two players was not talent it was Eddie's ability to carry a massive workload and Jacobs inability with the secondary difference being Eddie was a true three down back . So to me it really does not matter which side of that comp, if any, you want to believe in, how successful Henry will be is ultimately going to boil down to how much he can remain healthy enough to get a big load and for how long.

 

Thanks for this, I have a later 1st pick and I think I'm going to have to decide whether or not to pass on Henry.  What you said could be the deciding factor.

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2 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Obviously not Herschel. And Bo was much more agile, I guess.

If you scroll up on this page a little you asked if his skill set resembled Herschel which is why I threw him in.

I take you are very very high on Henry when you are invoking Herschel and Bo. Also earlier in this thread you mentioned Peterson being a two down back as not an indictment on Henry. That's some lofty company but I thought about that comment  when I saw this: http://www.mockdraftable.com/player/5672/  That is based just on combine workouts, I think anyway-just found this site yesterday and not sure any of it means anything. Lowest score is closest match. Sucks that his closest match is Andre Williams but thought you'd eat up his second closest.

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

If you scroll up on this page a little you asked if his skill set resembled Herschel which is why I threw him in.

I take you are very very high on Henry when you are invoking Herschel and Bo. Also earlier in this thread you mentioned Peterson being a two down back as not an indictment on Henry. That's some lofty company but I thought about that comment  when I saw this: http://www.mockdraftable.com/player/5672/  That is based just on combine workouts, I think anyway-just found this site yesterday and not sure any of it means anything. Lowest score is closest match. Sucks that his closest match is Andre Williams but thought you'd eat up his second closest.

Are you sure the comparison numbers aren't the long decimals and not the %'s? (meaning Henry's closest comparison is Mikel LeShoure and not Andre Williams)

 

The reason I ask is looking at Ezekial Elliot's comparison scores has his closest comparison being Gurley (decimal numbers) or Javarris James (%).

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2 hours ago, menobrown said:

If you scroll up on this page a little you asked if his skill set resembled Herschel which is why I threw him in.

I take you are very very high on Henry when you are invoking Herschel and Bo. Also earlier in this thread you mentioned Peterson being a two down back as not an indictment on Henry. That's some lofty company but I thought about that comment  when I saw this: http://www.mockdraftable.com/player/5672/  That is based just on combine workouts, I think anyway-just found this site yesterday and not sure any of it means anything. Lowest score is closest match. Sucks that his closest match is Andre Williams but thought you'd eat up his second closest.

I'm not sure why I threw out Herschel. I don't remember writing that. 

Edit:Wait. Yes I do. I was thinking that like Herschel, he's a between the tackles runner. Ask him to run sweeps and you might be in trouble.

And I'm really just trying to find some comparison to a guy his size that moves like he does. Like everyone else I'm failing.

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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1 hour ago, Dope said:

Are you sure the comparison numbers aren't the long decimals and not the %'s? (meaning Henry's closest comparison is Mikel LeShoure and not Andre Williams)

 

The reason I ask is looking at Ezekial Elliot's comparison scores has his closest comparison being Gurley (decimal numbers) or Javarris James (%).

To answer your question no I'm not sure, I just found that site yesterday and when I read lowest I just assumed lowest percentage but I might be wrong and I welcome any clarification.

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3 hours ago, Dope said:

Are you sure the comparison numbers aren't the long decimals and not the %'s? (meaning Henry's closest comparison is Mikel LeShoure and not Andre Williams)

 

The reason I ask is looking at Ezekial Elliot's comparison scores has his closest comparison being Gurley (decimal numbers) or Javarris James (%).

The closest match is the first guy listed, with the highest % and the lowest decimal. With Henry, that's LeShoure (with Beanie Wells in 2nd).

The closer the match, the closer those numbers are to 100% similar (and 0.0000000 difference). Many RBs have a closest comparison over 90%, and are over 80% with all 10 of the similar players. The fact that Henry's closest comparison (LeShoure) is only 72% similar shows that Henry is a relatively unique prospect.

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19 minutes ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

High praise here.

 

I think Jacobs is an easy but lazy comparison. I think Henry will have a very good career  and in the right system he could be great.  He's such an outlier from a size and speed standpoint that I think we really need to go back a few years for a bellcow type back that once he plants his foot and heads up field he's extremely dangerous.

I really think Muncie is a decent comp, don't think Henry has Muncie receiving ability or his lateral quickness but both guys are huge physical backs that once they head up field they have very good speed.  I do think Henry will be a better runner than Muncie was a I love Henry's long speed for his size. 

Henry is such a freak that I don't see a close modern comparison and therefore had to dig deeper into the memory bank. The 70s had some very good big back that I think Henry compares more favorably to - I'll also toss out Sam Bam and perhaps even a stronger and faster Franco Harris as backs that Henry compares to.

 

 

A faster Chuck Muncie with some Sam Cunningham.

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Where would you guys put Henry on your dynasty rankings now?   Ahead of or behind guys like Rawls,  Hyde,  Gordon,  Yeldon,  Lacy, or Hill?  How far behind Elliott?  How far behind guys like Bell, Gurley or everyone's new favorite toy David Johnson?

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28 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

Where would you guys put Henry on your dynasty rankings now?   Ahead of or behind guys like Rawls,  Hyde,  Gordon,  Yeldon,  Lacy, or Hill?  How far behind Elliott?  How far behind guys like Bell, Gurley or everyone's new favorite toy David Johnson?


PIT RB LeVeon Bell
LA RB Todd Gurley 

? RB Ezekiel Elliott - depends on where he lands but without knowing I'll put him above DJ and Rawls

ARI RB David Johnson
SEA RB Thomas Rawls
JAX RB TJ Yeldon

? RB Derrick Henry - depends on where he lands but I'd put him ahead of Lacy and Hyde at this point

GB RB Eddoe Lacy
SF RB Carlos Hyde

SD RB Melvin Gordon
Hill???  who the F is Hill?  

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I would really shy away from using direct player comparisons. If you want to use "big backs" as a comparison for general projections, sure, but outside of that I think it would be too easy to lead yourself astray. Positive or negative.

With Henry his landing spot will be very important but it likely won't be obvious to anyone outside the organization. Most of the time we (the FF community) look at landing spot in terms of opportunity and then OL. With Henry, he almost needs to go to a team that wants him not a team that needs an RB and just sees him as the best back available. I know I will catch heat for this but think about this, Oakland at #44. "He'll never fall that far" or "But Murray..." just hear me out on this one because stranger things have happened.

Their GM (Reggie McKenzie) loves big, "country strong" OL, Mike Tice is their OL coach and Del Rio doesn't might some power run game. Picture this, Crabtree and Cooper on the outsides, Carr under center, a speed receiver in the slot, Murray and Henry in a split backfield. Either of those big backs could can be a lead blocker, both had decent speed coming out of the back field for passes. They don't need to be good route runners because of where they are in the formation. It would allow your OL to cheat inside because old Von speed rushing the edge would run into either of those waiting power backs. If you swap out Walford for the speed guy, your facing nickel. If they stay in their based and go zone, Cooper is going to rip them up. *In my option, Cooper is strongest against zone.* Plus, Carr is likely going to have time. It's likely the defense is going to go nickel. Now, Del Rio gets to whip those two hammers at your nickel defense. With the NFL drifting more to the coverage linebackers this thumping run game is going to take its toll. The best part is that if Oakland were to go with the speed receiver in the slot and the speed both backs have, they can attack all over the field in the passing game too which means you can run a slow, hurry up (rush to the line but don't snap the ball right away) to trap a defense on the field against the hammer brothers. The split backs also means that you can run a ton of different blocking schemes and misdirections. 

I just nerded out really bad. It's so fun to think of what they could do. Gets me fired up. I'm not a Raiders fan but it's exciting to think about.

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On 3/6/2016 at 3:08 PM, Gandalf said:

What do you like about him?  I trust your judgment 

Weight/speed combo and overblown lack of agility.  Was very underused in the passing game, but looked very good in limited usage. I mean line this guy up wide or in the slot, you have yourself another WR/TE. He's bigger than most WRs and the same size as most TEs and he can run after the catch.

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Derrick Henry shows off receiving skills at Alabama's pro day

Running back Derrick Henry -- 6-foot-2 1/2, 244 pounds -- got some extra credit for stepping in as a receiver because the event didn't have enough wide receivers. The scouts on hand were ecstatic over how well the 2015 Heisman Trophy winner caught the ball. Henry stepped in and showed that he has real good route-running ability, and that is just another skill that he possesses that people didn't realize that he was so good at. Henry really helped himself out at the pro day.

 

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Alabama RB Derrick Henry told Tom Pelissero he has visits scheduled with the Panthers and Cowboys.

 
Henry could thrive behind both of these offensive lines. If we were to play matchmaker, there is no way Henry is selected at No. 4 by the Cowboys, but a No. 30 selection by the Panthers is possible, along with an early second round pick by the Cowboys. Henry, like many backs, can go down if hit low behind the line of scrimmage. However, when allowed to get to the line of scrimmage or second level, Henry can be a freight train with great speed and an ability to fall forward on final contact for a few extra yards.
 
 
Mar 16 - 8:34 AM

 

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Pro Football Focus analyst John Breitenbach wrote that Alabama RB Derrick Henry is "one-dimensional, but he performs that dimension exceptionally well."

 

"Few power backs are capable of breaking as many tackles as Henry accomplished. He tallied 76 over the course of 2015," Breitenbach noted, "adding 3.4 yards after contact and 28 touchdowns. In some ways, however, those numbers work against him because they came on 396 carries." The analyst points to the horrendous history of heavy-workload backs in the year following their big haul. This is something of a shadow story for the 6-foot-3, 247-pounder. His positives and negatives as a player are already well-chronicled, but nobody (not even Henry himself) knows how he will respond to the mileage in 2016.
 
 
Mar 25 - 8:39 PM

 

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CBS Sports draft analyst Dane Brugler wrote that Alabama RB Derrick Henry's "performance as a pass-catcher during his [Pro Day] workout helped his draft stock."

Henry caught just 11 passes last season and logged a total of 17 catches for his collegiate career with the Tide. Enter Pro Day, when the 6-foot-3, 247-pound Heisman winner "ran routes, caught the ball smoothly and even lined up out wide as a wide receiver," according to Brugler. With so few catches during his time at Alabama, it is difficult to say outright that he "proved" he can be a catch-weapon out of backfield during his Pro Day workout, but it's one of those little things that could cement a second-round pick for Henry.
 
 
Source: CBS Sports 
Apr 8 - 8:12 PM

 

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NFL Draft Scout's Frank Cooney noted that Alabama RB Derrick Henry "must be drafted by an NFL team willing to feature him in a similar manner [as the Crimson Tide]."

 

"Protect Henry with a powerful offensive line," Cooney wrote, "and allow him to gash defenses 20-25 times a game and he could live up to expectations." The analyst does not believe that Henry will find true NFL success if he is not used as a feature back, as he thinks limited carries would expose Henry's lack of overt agility. Per the analyst, "[Henry] is big and fast, but so is everybody in the NFL. Henry's decent quickness, good speed and so-so elusiveness are not necessarily a predictor of success in pro football." Among the teams that have shown interest in Henry, the Panthers, Cowboys and Seahawks. All three of those clubs already have starting running backs in the fold (Jonathan Stewart, Alfred Morris and Thomas Rawls, respectively).
 
 
Source: CBS Sports 
Apr 9 - 6:11 PM

 

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ESPN's Merril Hoge said Alabama RB Derrick Henry lacks spontaneous agility to succeed in every scheme in the NFL.

 

"Spontaneous agility" was basically defined as quickness or lateral agility to avoid low tackles. This sounds like a very critical statement, but let's dissect it a bit. One, most NFL players, even many first round picks, are team and scheme dependent. Two, we know Henry struggles when the offensive line allows instant disruption; many running backs do. Three, Henry can be a major asset to a roster when allowed to get to the second level, and is better in that area than a large number of prospects at the position.
 
 
 
Apr 13 - 9:04 AM

 

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