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RB Derrick Henry, BAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
The Frankman
Footballguy
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Ardbeg4ever
Footballguy
I know Detroit's D isn't any better but as the highest scoring team going up against the D.Hanry team, I hope he falls back to "human" levels next week.
The Frankman
Footballguy
az_prof
Footballguy
Do we get apologies from all the horrible prognosticators who projected only 20 points for Henry week 17? I love that he rolled up 250 yards today and to those who were lambasting Bloom for last week you are all....(fill in the blank). For those keeping track, today was Henry's third 200+ yard game of the season.
Down Under
Footballguy
So when does Henry start to fall off a cliff because of high usage - do you think he has 2 or 3 elite years left? I remember when Chris Johnson died, of course that had as much to do with getting paid and getting soft. Adrian Peterson is a fluke. Most of the other 2000'ers don't have a good long-term record after that.
Deamon
Footballguy
I give him one more season as an RB1. Two max. I'd be stunned if he's a top 10 RB for the next 3 seasons.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
crushedspirit
Footballguy
OJ, Dickerson, AP, and Lewis all had some productive seasons after 2000, so maybe Henry can as well. I do think a drop off is likely though next season, but still see him as a RB1.
I honestly don’t see much of a drop off for the next two years. The dude is just...different. Have you seen his workout regimen? And he has a chance to go down as one of the greatest of all time, and I think he wants nothing more than that. Plus, while he has absorbed an extremely heavy workload the last couple years, he was mostly playing behind Demarco his first couple of years in Nashville. Hopefully saved a little tread on those tires.crushedspirit said:
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
Many fantasy analysts were saying in this pre-season that Henry was a fade.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
And the fact that most of his production is off of quick handoffs and pitches helps him stay healthy. Instead of being lined up by the defense while waiting for a pass to float to him, he can secure the ball early and keep his eyes downfield. And if he gets to the next level it's not him that's getting lined up, it's the defender.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah this is where I am at with Henry as well. I'm going to hold him until proven otherwise. I don't care if I lose whatever trade value he may have had before some drop off. But if anyone can have longevity at the position, it is him.
I also think that he has work to do to make the hall of fame because of the slow start for his career, so that is added motivation to continue dominating for years to come.
Down Under
Footballguy
To argue the other side, that means he is older than the usual 2,000 yd rusher - "fresher legs" or not, as you get older, you get slower and your body breaks down, especially with his type of bruising running style. Didn't someone compare his running style to Marian Barbar? (loved him) But he didn't last more than a few years.
Marion Barber? You mean the guy who never even had a 1000 yard rushing season? I’m not sure who compared him to Henry, but that’s offensive to the King.
Down Under
Footballguy
Don't be stupid, no one compared Barber's career to Henry's. It was about "running style", you know, the punishment of defenders type, doesn't shy away from contact, plows right into it. As opposed to those that evade contact and even run out of bounds to avoid it, but it may prolong their career. Barry Sanders strikes me as the avoider type - he probably got tackled hard twice in his whole career.
Oh okay. You mean like Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore?
Righhhhttt. And how old was he again when he retired?
And I'm the stupid one.
Down Under
Footballguy
He retired because he wanted to, not because of injury. He could have played a lot longer. We are getting off topic now, so time to end this part of the debate.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
I agree with this. Not inconceivable that Henry could have a career like Tomlinson; 7 years of 300 + carries and 3 years of 200+ carries.
Henry so far has 2 years of 300+ carries and 1 year of 200+ carries. I guess you could combine his first two years as another 200+ carry year and he still could have 5-6 years of elite production if he stays healthy. He's a dynasty hold IMO.
Career carries aren't always the issue. If the Titans make deep, Henry could top 850 touches in 2 seasons.
That kind of workload is a ton for anyone. Larry Johnson had very few career carries before 2 pretty big years, and was never the same. Jamal Lewis and Ricky Williams both burned out from heavy use, despite being young.
The problem with the tomlinson example, is that this was Henry's 5th season. Tomlinson already had 5 straight 300 carry seasons by this point and only had 2 good years after it, albeit 1 was his best.
I like Henry a ton, but I think it's more likely he peaked this season, and it's all downhill from here. Doesn't mean he'll suddenly suck, but I don't think it's a bad idea to sell this off-season if you can afford to.
kutta
Footballguy
I think the problem Henry dynasty owners have, myself included, is that they drafted him and waited and waited and waited for him to do what we all knew he could. Now that he’s doing it, I’ll be damned if I’m going to watch him do it on someone else’s team.
So yes. It’s probably best to sell. But Henry is one guy that I am emotionally invested in and I’m gonna ride that big horse until they send him to the glue factory.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
It is a lot of work and I don't think it is *bad* to move him, per se, but I think there is risk in doing it before he breaks Eric Dickerson's record, which I actually think he might consider within his reach. If he does maintain a "not suddenly sucking but technically downhill from 2020" pace for 2-4 years, I think it would be a mistake to have sold. Unless you really are rebuilding and can get a haul. I agree he has most likely had his best season. He is a guy that I think will be capable of having a 200 yard 2 TD game any given week for the next 2-4 years, though, and those years should still be RB1 seasons. I strongly disagree that it is "all downhill from here", though I agree the curve will be negative. I think the slope of that curve will be small enough that I really think he is more of a hold than a sell. I'm not selling.
I 100% acknowledge there is a risk with him as he gets older and gains more mileage. That is why I'm not going to target him in startups. Although I got him in like the 4th round last year in a couple.
Yeah my patience paid off (although I only drafted him as a rookie once), but I have him on a lot of teams and have defended him ever since he broke out (when they made him the feature back) and people were saying that he doesn't catch enough passes in PPR. I'm like so what? He is crushing it. Still true. Even as recently as this season in here someone was saying "but not in PPR".
Anyway, I think HOF, Eric Dickerson and GOAT are all on his mind. Entirely likely his body doesn't hold up that long for some of that, but I do know nobody can handle him and this Titans team is going to be competitive for awhile. So long as he is bringing me ships I really don't care how much *value* I *might* be losing by holding instead of selling.
I’m not so sure wear and tear from too many carries is what “burned out” Mr. Ricky...
Ricky was a phenomenal talent, but his heart was never fully into football. Interesting guy. I’d recommend diving into his life a little bit when you have the time.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I'll give kamara his due, but it's crazy to me that 3 people voted for him over Henry https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/01/08/full-vote-totals-for-2020-nfl-all-pro-team/
kutta
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
probably meant to vote for diggs but missed.
The Frankman
Footballguy
az_prof
Footballguy
An injury can derail anyone's career no matter how great, but so far, he has proven to be resilient to injuries and contrary to the claim that his style makes him jury prone, he actually is very adept at avoiding dangerous hits. He tends to deal more damage than he suffers and he also uses stiff arms to avoid hard hits. It would be foolhardy to expect another 2000 yard season although that is definitely possible. But I fully expect him to be in the 1000-1300 range for at least three to four more seasons and to continue scoring in double digits.
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az_prof
Footballguy
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