Tanner9919
Footballguy
This is probably the end of fournette being a starting RB for the Jags - his injury history goes all the way back to LSU days. it's blatantly obvious the guy is made of glass. Jags will move on from him next year.
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RB Leonard Fournette, FA (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
flapgreen
Footballguy
Good point; it’s not like that would result in almost $25M of dead cap over the next 2 seasons.
Id still disagree with that take, but that’s more realistic than than “moving on from him” & eating all that dead cap.
Milkman
Footballguy
I guess I'm having a hard time figuring out the last time he was healthy for a season. It's just getting to the point where the Jags have to start asking that same question. When they do, his usage plan will change.
Perhaps you are right. But they have too much money tied up in him for the next few years to get rid of him completely.
doeseatplace
Footballguy
The Jaguars drafted Leonard Fournette at 1.04 in 2017 as part of a Tom Coughlin-inspired overhaul of a terrible franchise. The Jags would emphasis ball control to complement a dominating defense, with 2017 FAs Calais Campbell and AJ Bouye joining drafted talent Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, Telvin Smith, Yannick Ngakoue and Dante Fowler.
The Jags invested heavily in a powerful running back as the missing piece of the puzzle, and it worked.
In 13 games last year, Fournette scored 9 rushing TD (tied for 3rd behind Gurley and Ingram) and averaged 80 rushing yards per game (4th behind Gurley, Bell and Hunt). Under the Coughlin plan, the Jags made it to the AFC Championship Game, with Fournette rushing an incredible 70 times and scoring 4 TDs in three playoff games.
In 2018, the Jags doubled down on the strategy, re-signing non-franchise/non-elite QB Blake Bortles and using their first round draft pick on another defensive lineman.
So while many fantasy owners are cutting bait on Fournette, the Jags will not.
TJ Yeldon is heading for free agency this off-season, so the Jags will by necessity draft a running back in 2019, likely in the 3rd/4th round. If that player for some reason is better than Fournette, maybe Fournette ultimately does get phased out and the Jags won't exercise his 5th year option. Otherwise it wouldn't make any sense to blow up a well-thought out strategy that has resulted in a division title and conference championship game because of nagging injuries.
The Jags invested heavily in a powerful running back as the missing piece of the puzzle, and it worked.
In 13 games last year, Fournette scored 9 rushing TD (tied for 3rd behind Gurley and Ingram) and averaged 80 rushing yards per game (4th behind Gurley, Bell and Hunt). Under the Coughlin plan, the Jags made it to the AFC Championship Game, with Fournette rushing an incredible 70 times and scoring 4 TDs in three playoff games.
In 2018, the Jags doubled down on the strategy, re-signing non-franchise/non-elite QB Blake Bortles and using their first round draft pick on another defensive lineman.
So while many fantasy owners are cutting bait on Fournette, the Jags will not.
TJ Yeldon is heading for free agency this off-season, so the Jags will by necessity draft a running back in 2019, likely in the 3rd/4th round. If that player for some reason is better than Fournette, maybe Fournette ultimately does get phased out and the Jags won't exercise his 5th year option. Otherwise it wouldn't make any sense to blow up a well-thought out strategy that has resulted in a division title and conference championship game because of nagging injuries.
Milkman
Footballguy
Fournette doesn't have to get phased out to lose most of his value. A true split role with a 3rd round back next year where the other back got most of the passing down work would drop his value as dynasty asset significantly.
doeseatplace
Footballguy
But he never had a three down back role in 2017, and none was planned for him this year.
2017 stats (tgts/rec):
Fournette: 36/48
Yeldon: 30/41
Ivory: 21/28
Grant: 3/4
In fact, before the injuries this year, there were a lot of designed plays w/ Grant and Fournette in the same backfield. To the Jags mgmt, his ability to pound the rock an average of 23 times/game as he did in last year's playoffs + catch 2-3 passes a game is the key.
I know fantasy owners want him to be a Gurley or Bell, but that's not his employer's plan. Any 3-down back dynasty value subscribed to Fornette is misguided
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
Yup, the GM that stuck with Bortles though all his awfulness is totally going to give up on his 2nd year RB. For sure.
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Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
When replying to Tanner keep in mind he likes to post for shock value. He's been doing it forever.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
That's not entirely true. If you look at that first half if the first game he had 4 targets. They wanted to feature him and even talked about getting him more involved in the passing game. He's their best play maker and they know it.
Milkman
Footballguy
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
No, he will not. He just won't.
David Caldwell isn't one to admit a mistake after year two.
doeseatplace
Footballguy
Agreed that Fournette is/was a key cog in the Jags passing game...he had 4+ targets in 7 of his 13 games last year. But Yeldon's inherent, stand-alone value was reflected in his fantasy ADP...of the backups to the Top 10 RBs, his was the highest if you discount the Kamara/Ingram tandem, which is more of a RB1 A/B.
Milkman
Footballguy
If you say so. I would totally agree with you if he wasn't injury prone in college.
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
I'm sorry. I think you are confused. I don't think he'll be cut. I think there is a chance he will have his usage lowered.
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
I'm not confused at all.Milkman said:
I do agree that they'll draft a RB to account for LF's injuries.
Milkman
Footballguy
doeseatplace
Footballguy
Right. They'll also need to replace Yeldon, who'll command $3-6M on the free agent market. Jags can't match that if they want to keep key components of the defense in place
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Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
A hit, yes. A big hit, no. A RB is getting drafted though. The economics of this team's situation dictate that. And I'm good with that.
Teams just don't move on from 2nd year top 5 picks though. They just don't, regardless of how ineffective they are.
Milkman
Footballguy
Dude he just missed this entire year basically and it's killing them. I get what you're saying and I hope you're right but this is bad this year.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
Maybe they sign a FA or maybe they draft someone, but it doesn't matter. Fournette is the undisputed starter when healthy. This is only his second year, it's not like he has been injured like 5 straight years and Jax is giving up on him. He was banged up in college, along with Guice, but he's a monster when he plays. Better days are coming. He's not going to get hurt every year.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
What if Darnold got hurt and missed a couple of games this year. Then next year he gets hurt and they rest him until fully healthy. Do they move on from him? Because that's almost what you're saying about Fournette.
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
I'm not saying he's been what they drafted him to be. He's often been useless. Nothing he's done has shown me that anything is going to change with him. I'm simply saying that the Jags won't move on from him next year, even if he doesn't take one more snap this year.
doeseatplace
Footballguy
Exactly. They are going to ride him into the ground, whether he is effective or not. Jags knew he was injury prone when they drafted him and will maximize his usage. The odds of him getting a second contract with the Jags are 0.
2017 carries:
Weeks 1-6: 26, 14, 17, 24, 28, 21.
Week 7: Out. Week 8: bye. Week 9: suspended:
Weeks 10-14: 17, 28, 12, 20, 24.
Week 15: out
Weeks 16-17: 18, 19.
Playoffs: 21, 25, 24.
As a fantasy owner, you may not want to put up with this uncertainty. But he's going to get the ball, and as Milkman said, they'll throw it to him as well as long as he's on the field.
He was RB10 last year playing just thirteen games, so there is value buried in the frustration
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano)
10/17/18, 9:56 AM
Doug Marrone says Leonard Fournette will try to practice tomorrow, at which point they'll have a better idea about playing Week 7.
10/17/18, 9:56 AM
Doug Marrone says Leonard Fournette will try to practice tomorrow, at which point they'll have a better idea about playing Week 7.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Repeating again ad naseum as others have, in the hopes that my prayers reach the ff gods:
Please, please let him sit out this week if it means he can be 100% healthy after the bye through the playoffs.
You want to win every game, but with a literally mediocre division, the Titans looking like they are stalled and the Colts needing to make up serious ground, they can still vie for the division even with potentially losing to HOU this weekend.
doeseatplace
Footballguy
Local sports radio analysts strongly believe he won't see the field until after the bye.
Jags will make a decision on his availability for this Sunday tomorrow, and they are in London for week 8, so he'll either be on the plane next Thursday or not
And you're right..9-7 could/will win this division. Going 3-5 into the bye doesn't doom the Jags, as they have the Bills, Colts x2, Dolphins and Skins (at home) over the second half. But they cannot get swept by both Titans and Texans
Respectfully Disagree on this approach. This is not what the team, the player or us as owners need or want. What a professional team wants to do is field their best players weekly. This is football, it’s a tough sport. Man the he’ll up and play when u can. This friggin #### has played 3quarters all season, what a pathetic display
i hate him and everything he stands for, posting o nsocial media like a ##### about a 2500 $ bet instead of taking his JOB seriously and training
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I don't have the illusion that Marrone has my fantasy team in mind. And every win counts -- especially against a divisional opponent.
But this is a bit of a different situation where the calculus is a little more complex, IMHO, than "if he's healthy, he plays" -- specifically from an NFL team standpoint.
We saw what happened when Fournette came back arguably too soon -- he was out for another long stretch of games.
I do think that not repeating that mistake, risking further aggravation once again, and weighing future competitiveness and potential wins versus the greater chance of taking a single loss -- even against a divisional competitor -- at this point in the season, and given the comparative records of the other divisional teams -- does come into play here in terms of what's best for this team and it's ability to win and make the playoffs.
doeseatplace
Footballguy
100% right STC. I'm not sure I agree that the owner and management of a billion+ dollar organization shares the same interests as a guy who shells out $50 to play fake football with his buddies.
And talented and highly drafted football players who rely on their legs to be successful likely are not the best players if their legs aren't functioning properly
Skoo
Footballguy
Conan Troutman
Footballguy
16 teams 6 keeper spots (no restrictions), so I get a lot more out of late firsts than some second tier rookie receiver. Made sense for the other team as well, makes him an instant contender (though he arguably was a contender before anyway).
thecardiackid
Footballguy
What's his value trade wise in redraft now?
Heard Cecil on his ff show on the fan in Denver tonight and he said golden tate'ish...
Heard Cecil on his ff show on the fan in Denver tonight and he said golden tate'ish...
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Limping Lenny
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
I've heard torn labias take a long time to heal so I am just forced to have patience
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Assume he comes back after the bye, stays healthy, and scores about what he did last year, per game. Where does he go in redrafts next year?
Spike
Footballguy
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Can't believe I am 4-2 in a league where my top two picks were Fournette and Cook
