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RB Leonard Fournette, Bucs


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1 minute ago, Faust said:

Very deceiving stats.

Among 36 RBs with 40+ targets for the season, Fournette ranked 27th in yards per catch, 30th in yards per target, 25th in yards per route run.  Over his 3 seasons in the league, Fournette has touched the ball a lot when healthy. He ranks 4th in that span in carries per game and 3rd in touches per game. But among the top 100 RBs in total carries since the start of 2017, Fournette ranks just 66th in non-PPR points per touch and 63rd in PPR points per touch.

 

VOLUME, VOLUME,, VOLUME!!!

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42 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

Bears are 19th in waiver order, pretty sure he will get claimed before that.

I don't think anyone will take him off waivers. Why would someone rush to grab him off waivers if they wouldn't even give up a 7th rounder for him?  He wont be claimed at his current salary I don't think. 

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5 minutes ago, Deamon said:

I don't think anyone will take him off waivers. Why would someone rush to grab him off waivers if they wouldn't even give up a 7th rounder for him?  He wont be claimed at his current salary I don't think. 

I think this is more likely. Or they'll get him to re-negotiate what he earns down to about $2M or so.

Interesting. I picked up James Robinson (R - No. Illinois?) in a deep league on a hunch. Wonder if that comes to bear any fruit.

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FWIW, our take from the email this morning:

Quote

 

Big news from Jacksonville. Mike Garafolo reports this morning: "Jaguars are releasing RB Leonard Fournette, source says."

We'll continue to sort this but some initial thoughts from Sigmund Bloom:

"This looks like a case where the Jaguars are changing blueprints and Fournette doesn't fit the future plans. Chris Thompson will have some weekly RB2/Flex PPR value as long as he stays healthy - which will be 4-8 weeks if history holds here.

"Ryquell Armstead will likely get first crack at the job and he can handle himself between the tackles with some long speed to boot. 2019 UDFA Devine Ozigbo is a rugged all around back who has had a great camp and should figure into the picture as the third back, but on a par talent-wise with Armstead. It wouldn't be surprising to see him become the starter at some point.

"For now, only Thompson should be near lineups, as the Jaguars aren't going to be making good enough game scripts to reliably support two fantasy backs, but there is some value to mine in Armstead/Ozigbo, especially in dynasty leagues, and we will revisit them in redraft leagues if they aren't already rostered. UDFA James Robinson out of Illinois State has been solid in camp and could make the team now, he's a name to keep in mind in deep dynasty leagues.

"It's difficult to predict where Fournette will land. Most teams are in tight cap situations, so chances are he will be passed up on the waiver wire at a 4 million dollar salary, and the Jaguars would have dealt him if that was possible. Perhaps a team will offer a late pick or pick bump now that their intentions are public, but don't count on it. He could also have to wait until there is a running back injury during the season, but either way, his addition will hurt the value of at least one running back."

We'll stay on top of this one for you. For information like this all season long, make sure to sign up for the Footballguys Game Plan.

I hope your Monday calms down from here.

 

 

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I think someone takes a chance on waivers and might be some surprise team we'd all not expect. Everyone knew the Jags and Fournette were headed for divorce and with the weird year in 2020, I'd bet no team wanted to bet any 2021 draft capital and bets either on the waivers or FA process.

 

My most likely guess at where we see him land : Washington.

My totally 100% speculative guess I've personally felt all along is where he should go if traded/released : Pittsburgh

 

I know Armstead, Robinson, and Ozigbo will probably be the hot pickups today, but something tells me Chris Thompson might just be the most valuable Jags RB to own this year. I could see a lot of frustrating early down rotation but Thompson being that Tarik Cohen-like consistent PPR back that's the only worthwhile to own this year on the Jags.

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3 minutes ago, Jayded said:

I think someone takes a chance on waivers and might be some surprise team we'd all not expect. Everyone knew the Jags and Fournette were headed for divorce and with the weird year in 2020, I'd bet no team wanted to bet any 2021 draft capital and bets either on the waivers or FA process.

 

My most likely guess at where we see him land : Washington.

My totally 100% speculative guess I've personally felt all along is where he should go if traded/released : Pittsburgh

 

I know Armstead, Robinson, and Ozigbo will probably be the hot pickups today, but something tells me Chris Thompson might just be the most valuable Jags RB to own this year. I could see a lot of frustrating early down rotation but Thompson being that Tarik Cohen-like consistent PPR back that's the only worthwhile to own this year on the Jags.

No team is going to pay his 4 million salary

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He's only 25. Averaged 4.5 per carry last year for a team with 6th round rookie QB. He can catch, although that's not his strength. When needing a tough yard, he was excellent,  something like 33 of 43, IIRC. He's better than some starters and should at least be a #1b.

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6 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

He's only 25. Averaged 4.5 per carry last year for a team with 6th round rookie QB. He can catch, although that's not his strength. When needing a tough yard, he was excellent,  something like 33 of 43, IIRC. He's better than some starters and should at least be a #1b.

4.3, but that is deceiving.  See previous post about his true numbers being a result of volume.

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Just now, mcintyre1 said:

...anyone trying to trade for him? I sent an offer of a 2nd rounder (probably mid range)

No, man. I wanted nothing to do with him before and certainly not after. I don't think he's that good of a back and I think the NFL brass knows it. That's just my opinion, of course. It may be short-sighted.

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1 minute ago, pantherclub said:

wut?

From what I've read, a team could still trade for him. Now that it's public what Jax intentions are, a team may rethink trading for him. I doubt a 5, but I wouldn't rule out a team trading a 7 now. I mean, the Jets traded a 7 for Ballage (I get it, less money) but it's possible. 

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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

No, man. I wanted nothing to do with him before and certainly not after. I don't think he's that good of a back and I think the NFL brass knows it. That's just my opinion, of course. It may be short-sighted.

Understandable, certainly could be right. I've been more of a believer over time, but I was definitely wavering this year. The team I sent the offer from is in a weird RB scoring league and I've been unable to pry away anyone, so I figured it was worth the gamble. He's a hold for me in the only other league I have him in.

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3 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

4.3, but that is deceiving.  See previous post about his true numbers being a result of volume.

Thanks. Wiki says 4.5, but NFL has 4.3. The same ballpark as Cook, Mixon, Carson, Mack, Hyde. What do advanced metrics say about his performance in 2019? 

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50 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

4.6 at the combine doesn't make one jump to the waiver wire for Robinson.  Also, his level of competition in college leaves a lot to be desired.  

See my post about having had added him a week or so ago because I smelled this, kind of. He's not rippingly impressive. Neither are the two backs in front of him right now. And someone upthread may be right. The guy to own in this mess if you're a PPR guy is Chris Thompson. Jay Gruden loves him, and he's the OC now. If Thompson can suit up half the time, he's worth a flex play.

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Just now, IHEARTFF said:

I thought there was a retroactive waiver period where someone can work a trade, but if not yeah I dunno.

That could very well be. I'm not aware of it, but I'm not aware of a lot of the rules revolving around player movement. Sorry to even correct you on that, as somebody else has said essentially the same thing.

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6 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

4.3, but that is deceiving.  See previous post about his true numbers being a result of volume.

I think it has some merit.  The stats you keep posting refer to his numbers over the last 3 years, when we all know Fournette rebounded well last year after two poor seasons prior.  

I won’t beat the drum for Fournette, but the guy is still a physical beast and averaged 4.3 on a big workload and is still only 25.  At the very least he would seem to be a great fit for any team who needs short yardage help.  

 

 

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2 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

Understandable, certainly could be right. I've been more of a believer over time, but I was definitely wavering this year. The team I sent the offer from is in a weird RB scoring league and I've been unable to pry away anyone, so I figured it was worth the gamble. He's a hold for me in the only other league I have him in.

Yeah, differing evaluations and different leagues make for different decisions, for sure. I wasn't really being negative, I just literally responded to the question of whether I had or was thinking about making a move for him, and I figured I'd give as complete an answer as possible. 

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5 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

Thanks. Wiki says 4.5, but NFL has 4.3. The same ballpark as Cook, Mixon, Carson, Mack, Hyde. What do advanced metrics say about his performance in 2019? 

I don't like to repeat posts because people frown upon it, but here you go. 

Among 36 RBs with 40+ targets for the season, Fournette ranked 27th in yards per catch, 30th in yards per target, 25th in yards per route run. Despite a career-best 4.3 yards per rush, Football Outsiders rated Fournette just 34th among 45 qualifying RBs in both main rushing-efficiency metrics -- below average/replacement-level performance in each category. Pro Football Focus similarly graded Fournette just 41st in rushing among the 45 RBs with 100+ attempts in 2019.

Over his 3 seasons in the league, Fournette has touched the ball a lot when healthy. He ranks 4th in that span in carries per game and 3rd in touches per game. But among the top 100 RBs in total carries since the start of 2017, Fournette ranks just 66th in non-PPR points per touch and 63rd in PPR points per touch.

In short, he has feasted totally on touch volume.

Edited by JohnnyU
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12 minutes ago, rockaction said:

That ship has sailed. He's released. Maybe you meant "thought."

Even though the Jaguars have announced that Fournette, the fourth overall pick in the 2017 draft, has been waived, the move doesn’t become official until 4:00 p.m. ET. The Jaguars can trade him before officially waiving him.

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2 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Even though the Jaguars have announced that Fournette, the fourth overall pick in the 2017 draft, has been waived, the move doesn’t become official until 4:00 p.m. ET. The Jaguars can trade him before officially waiving him.

The Kalen Ballage special -- Gase still has time!

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10 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I don't like to repeat posts because people frown upon it, but here you go. 

Among 36 RBs with 40+ targets for the season, Fournette ranked 27th in yards per catch, 30th in yards per target, 25th in yards per route run. Despite a career-best 4.3 yards per rush, Football Outsiders rated Fournette just 34th among 45 qualifying RBs in both main rushing-efficiency metrics -- below average/replacement-level performance in each category. Pro Football Focus similarly graded Fournette just 41st in rushing among the 45 RBs with 100+ attempts in 2019.

Over his 3 seasons in the league, Fournette has touched the ball a lot when healthy. He ranks 4th in that span in carries per game and 3rd in touches per game. But among the top 100 RBs in total carries since the start of 2017, Fournette ranks just 66th in non-PPR points per touch and 63rd in PPR points per touch.

In short, he has feasted totally on touch volume.

On a terrible team.  Minshew was a cool story for a while but opposing defenses weren't selling out to stop their passing game and were out to stop Fournette first and foremost.  I don't think Fournette's a star or anything like that but he's a solid NFL RB. 

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10 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Even though the Jaguars have announced that Fournette, the fourth overall pick in the 2017 draft, has been waived, the move doesn’t become official until 4:00 p.m. ET. The Jaguars can trade him before officially waiving him.

Never say never - and NFL teams make dumb moves all the time. But no one in their right mind wants his contract, which is why the Jags couldn't cut a deal before now. I'm assuming there's offset language in his contract, so if that's the case then he'll get vet minimum offers. We'll see what he prioritizes - a stable organization (if one even wants him) or touches. Between the tackles bangers are not coveted commodities, so I think the conversations currently happening across the league are neck-up related. Positive spin, it's a vet minimum gamble, so if he causes problem he's easy to cut loose. He doesn't have a lucrative contract waiting for him on the other side, but he probably thinks he does so he at least has incentive to play the role of good solider.

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13 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Even though the Jaguars have announced that Fournette, the fourth overall pick in the 2017 draft, has been waived, the move doesn’t become official until 4:00 p.m. ET. The Jaguars can trade him before officially waiving him.

If that works it would be the smartest thing the Jags have done in years.

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2 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Never say never - and NFL teams make dumb moves all the time. But no one in their right mind wants his contract, which is why the Jags couldn't cut a deal before now. I'm assuming there's offset language in his contract, so if that's the case then he'll get vet minimum offers. We'll see what he prioritizes - a stable organization (if one even wants him) or touches. Between the tackles bangers are not coveted commodities, so I think the conversations currently happening across the league are neck-up related. Positive spin, it's a vet minimum gamble, so if he causes problem he's easy to cut loose. He doesn't have a lucrative contract waiting for him on the other side, but he probably thinks he does so he at least has incentive to play the role of good solider.

I believe it's more than just the neck up.  Yes, he can be serviceable but I don't think most teams view him as any better than what they have.  Someone will sign him however.

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9 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I believe it's more than just the neck up.  Yes, he can be serviceable but I don't think most teams view him as any better than what they have.  Someone will sign him however.

Me too, but I won't fight someone that thinks that's all it is. You and I have been aligned about him since at least April. I don't think he's replacement level (or worse) as a pure runner, but I think he's fairly close to it - and his passing game chops are limited at best. That can have value, but not necessarily if it comes with ego. Will this release humble him? will he dismiss it? or somewhere in between? I don't know, but I'm sure someone else in my leagues will have more optimistic expectations than I. 

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Fantasy Football: Key takeaways following Leonard Fournette's release from the Jacksonville Jaguars

Excerpts:

Quote

WHY THIS HAPPENED

While there are likely some behind-the-scenes reasons, his release can also be justified by his on-the-field play. 

His fantasy production in 2019 was all from quantity instead of quality — his fantasy points per snap (0.29) was actually the lowest of the 60 RB1 seasons over the last five years. And it wasn't only this past season when Fournette got his fantasy production from volume — among the 31 running backs with at least 500 attempts over the last four years (postseason included), Fournette's 66.1 rushing grade ranked 30th while his 2.71 yards after contact per attempt ranked just 18th.


 

Quote

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR FOURNETTE

Chances are Fournette will be able to find a new team before the start of the season, but he'll struggle to find one that would give him as much opportunity as Jacksonville was projected to. One possibility is the Jets, who have seen a number of their backup running backs go down with injuries, and their trade for Kalen Ballage was never finalized. There he would need to compete for carries with Le' Veon Bell and Frank Gore.

New England is a possibility, too, as Lamar Miller is still on the PUP list and Sony Michelhas been battling injury. Chicago is another, given its recent injury scare with David Montgomery and the fact that the team doesn't have as much depth in the backfield. It would again be a place where he would likely be a backup. 

Unless a running back gets hurt, Fournette's best opportunities would be as a role player competing for more playing time. Because of that, he could be a late-round flier in fantasy in 2020.

 

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  • Faust changed the title to RB Leonard Fournette, Bucs

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