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RB Leonard Fournette, Bucs


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22 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Not to get too off-topic, but there was an article about efficiency ratings, and why it favored Evans over Godwin with Brady behind center. I'll see if I can find it & will message you the link if I can. 

Feel free to add the link to the Mike Evans thread.

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Also I haven't personally looked into the incentives in his contract but according to Twitter he will be the highest paid RB on the team if he meets those incentives and odds are he will. 

Yes the more i look into this situation the better I feel. If I was drafting I would not pass him up in the 4th round. Got to have him. 

 

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41 minutes ago, Faust said:

Not for nothing, the expectation laid out in this article would be the best case scenario for both backs IMO, and was hinted at earlier. 

RoJo 1-2 downs, Fournette receiving & GL back. Likely some sets with both backs in the backfield. 

Definitely caps their ceilings respectively, but non-PPR RoJo is still a fairly solid flex play, PPR Fournette obviously gets the bigger bump in value. I am skeptical Fournette runs away with anything as has been asserted here. 

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34 minutes ago, travdogg said:

I am surprised he ended up in Tampa. Don't think its as good a spot as Jacksonville was, as I'd be blown away if he saw anywhere near the workload he did a year ago. That said, his TD upside certainly goes up. 

I could still see Arians souring on him quickly, but he'll get a shot. I could see this being a really frustrating backfield and would probably want no part of it, if I were drafting this weekend. At least not until 30+ RBs in. I think McCoy(or Ogunbowale if McCoy is a surprise cut) will likely get the receiving work, and Fournette the GL work, with some combo of the two of them and Ronald Jones seeing the 20-20 work.

Side note, how bad must Vaughn rookie drafters feel right now. Vaughn is suddenly looking like a gameday inactive. Might Damien Harris all over again.

Quality over quantity. IF he can command the lion over Ron Jones and Key Vaughn... In weeks 15-16. Really over weeks 9-16.

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19 minutes ago, Faust said:

Feel free to add the link to the Mike Evans thread.

Didn't find it (it might have been an article here at FBG, I just can't remember where I saw it) but I found one that makes many of the same points. I'll post it there now + @barackdhouse

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6 hours ago, domvin said:

End of the day, Fournettes a winner here

Escaped Jacksonville(this alone is a win by itself)

Minor pay cut

Wanted to win, Signed to a winning team, and potential Super Bowl 

Still gets to play for a large payday, and he parlayed all the negativity about him.....into playing for a coach who will use him as a bellcow

My 2 shares of him, I am good

He may not have even taken a pay cut.  If he wins the grievance against JAX, at minimum, he would be getting paid $6m for the year instead of $4.  If he wins the grievance and his volume/production is high with TBB, he stands to earn ~$10m for the year. 

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9 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

It’s certainly possible that Doc Ock nailed it earlier , only with Fournette the new James White rather than RoJo 

Huh? I didn’t call Fournette the new James White. I expect him to be the lead back on 1st and 2nd downs in a RBBC.

I also didn't call Rojo the James White either if that's what you're trying to say.

Neither are great receivers out of the backfield - although Fournette did rack up receptions last season.

Edited by Dr. Octopus
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Just now, Milkman said:

We're all guessing but I'd say 80/20 Fournette wants he's up to speed. The first 3 weeks RoJo might get more carries though. 

I think the idea RoJo is going to be used more on passing downs due to his smaller build and Pass Pro, LF will grind the games out once they get the leads in the later Qs

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1 minute ago, KellysHeroes said:

some dope on ESPN fantasy was saying that he wouldn't take LF until the 12th if at all on my 6 pm ride home... would love to hear him spin his decision making now

Does anyone know if the Bucs have an escape clause if it doesn't work out?  What are the details of his contract?  Not a great day for Jones owners I suppose, but this could turn out to be bad for both in fantasy.  I'm not so sure the Bucs would kick Jones to the bench, but I guess anything is possible.

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1 minute ago, KellysHeroes said:

I think the idea RoJo is going to be used more on passing downs due to his smaller build and Pass Pro, LF will grind the games out once they get the leads in the later Qs

Both are bad at pass pro but Lenny has the higher PFF receiving grade. 

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3 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Lenny face twice the stacked boxes that Mixon did and put up similar numbers. Mixon is considered a top 5 back and Lenny is considered a below average or average RB. 

People have definitely been low on Fournette but I'm not sure either of those are true.

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3 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Lenny face twice the stacked boxes that Mixon did and put up similar numbers. Mixon is considered a top 5 back and Lenny is considered a below average or average RB. 

I hear ya, I'm no scout and barely watched Jax when they were on... but when I did watch I felt he was a solid player... don't know why there is this much hate.

Brady can change that tune if he gets out of line

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3 minutes ago, Capella said:

Ed werder: One defensive coach evaluating #Bucs signing Leonard Fournette made the point he’s a quality pass protector at running back, something Tampa Bay lacked. Line one for Bruce Arians is protecting Tom Brady, in his age-43 season.

He's certainly big enough and should be good in pass protection.  I don't know how well he pass protects and some posted earlier he wasn't good at it.  Are there stats to back that up, or reaffirm what the defensive coach said?

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2 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

He's certainly big enough and should be good in pass protection.  I don't know how well he pass protects and some posted earlier he wasn't good at it.  Are there stats to back that up, or reaffirm what the defensive coach said?

I’m sure pro football focus has the stats. For me, going with the nfl defensive coach is enough for me. 

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11 minutes ago, Milkman said:

Lenny face twice the stacked boxes that Mixon did and put up similar numbers. Mixon is considered a top 5 back and Lenny is considered a below average or average RB. 

Here's part of the problem that no one is really talking about. Tampa's offense in 2018 accounted for 6881 YFS and 47 TD. In 2019, they accounted for 6648 YFS and 48 TD.

This year, they added Leonard Fournette, LeSean McCoy, and Ke'shawn Vaughan to the RBs and only lost Peyton Barber and his 585 YFS and & 7 TD. For receiving options, they added Rob Gronkowski and Tyler Johnson.

The Bucs were Top 3 in offense both years. Top offenses generally don't just stack more offense on to what they had already by adding more players . . . they typically redistribute the production they had among the new players.

The point being, for Fournette to have a huge season this year, his production will come at the expense of other offensive weapons. There is only one football. As a for instance, Dodds projects the Tampa offense to generate 6085 YFS and 42 TD this season . . . that would be 563 fewer yards and 6 fewer TD this year. (I am not saying Dodds is right or wrong, only that some of the totals people are projecting for the Tampa offense this year seem really inflated and hard to justify.)

So if someone like Fournette is going to come in and get a huge workload running the football, that will keep the clock moving and would lead to reduced passing and receiving totals for everyone else.

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14 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Here's part of the problem that no one is really talking about. Tampa's offense in 2018 accounted for 6881 YFS and 47 TD. In 2019, they accounted for 6648 YFS and 48 TD.

This year, they added Leonard Fournette, LeSean McCoy, and Ke'shawn Vaughan to the RBs and only lost Peyton Barber and his 585 YFS and & 7 TD. For receiving options, they added Rob Gronkowski and Tyler Johnson.

The Bucs were Top 3 in offense both years. Top offenses generally don't just stack more offense on to what they had already by adding more players . . . they typically redistribute the production they had among the new players.

The point being, for Fournette to have a huge season this year, his production will come at the expense of other offensive weapons. There is only one football. As a for instance, Dodds projects the Tampa offense to generate 6085 YFS and 42 TD this season . . . that would be 563 fewer yards and 6 fewer TD this year. (I am not saying Dodds is right or wrong, only that some of the totals people are projecting for the Tampa offense this year seem really inflated and hard to justify.)

So if someone like Fournette is going to come in and get a huge workload running the football, that will keep the clock moving and would lead to reduced passing and receiving totals for everyone else.

Well the new QB might not fit as well with the WR as the old one did. Obviously he's better especially in the ball security sense. That could be where the offense takes a step back. Lenny is in line for 15+ touches a game. If he starts killing it I don't see why Arians and Brady would fight that. 

Edited by Milkman
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52 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Does anyone know if the Bucs have an escape clause if it doesn't work out?  What are the details of his contract?  Not a great day for Jones owners I suppose, but this could turn out to be bad for both in fantasy.  I'm not so sure the Bucs would kick Jones to the bench, but I guess anything is possible.

Why? - they gave more snaps to Peyton Barber than Jones last season. Peyton Barber.

With that said I do think this late in the game, Jones will see the bigger workload early in the season so if he does well, he should be able to keep a role. Personally I think he's pretty terrible so I don't anticipate him holding off Fournette for too long but it's surely possible. 

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8 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Why? - they gave more snaps to Peyton Barber than Jones last season. Peyton Barber.

With that said I do think this late in the game, Jones will see the bigger workload early in the season so if he does well, he should be able to keep a role. Personally I think he's pretty terrible so I don't anticipate him holding off Fournette for too long but it's surely possible. 

And drafted and brought in 3 more RBs this offseason. 

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27 minutes ago, dblock05 said:

Bucs got a steal. He’s going to dominate goal line carries. 

Perhaps he can do better with those GL touches with the Bucs than he did in Jax.  One would have thought he would be better at that than he showed last year.  Of course the line will get the blame, and probably rightfully so, but some of that is on LF.

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FBG is telling everyone this is a 4 headed monster and a situation to avoid but they are forgetting one thing. Lenny wouldn't have signed with Tampa this quick if they hadn't told him he's the man as soon as he's up to speed. He's playing for a huge contract this season. Tampa promised him touches and lots of them. 

Edited by Milkman
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1 minute ago, Milkman said:

FBG is telling everyone this is a 4 headed monster and a situation to avoid but they are forgetting one thing. Lenny wouldn't have signed with Tampa this quick if they hadn't told him he's the man as soon as he's up to speed. He's playing for a huge contract this season. 

I bet Arians was as truthful with Fournette as he was with Jones...and the rest of us.

LF: Will I be the lead guy?

BA: Uh....sure. 

Edited by Andy Dufresne
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2 minutes ago, Milkman said:

FBG is telling everyone this is a 4 headed monster and a situation to avoid but they are forgetting one thing. Lenny wouldn't have signed with Tampa this quick if they hadn't told him he's the man as soon as he's up to speed. He's playing for a huge contract this season. Tampa promised him touches and lots of them. 

He wanted a job. There are few out there. It’s a week before the season starts. Every team had the chance to clam him and didn’t. You are absolutely dreaming if you think Tampa promised him anything. If a team aspired to make them their main back, someone would have claimed him. 

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2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

He wanted a job. There are few out there. It’s a week before the season starts. Every team had the chance to clam him and didn’t. You are absolutely dreaming if you think Tampa promised him anything. If a team aspired to make them their main back, someone would have claimed him. 

Interesting take on it.  I can't say that isn't true.

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9 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

He wanted a job. There are few out there. It’s a week before the season starts. Every team had the chance to clam him and didn’t. You are absolutely dreaming if you think Tampa promised him anything. If a team aspired to make them their main back, someone would have claimed him. 

He wouldn't have signed that quickly. He's made a ton of money already. He signed with them because they told him what he wants to hear. Of course if Jones outplays him he might not get it but that's simply not happening. 

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7 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

He wanted a job. There are few out there. It’s a week before the season starts. Every team had the chance to clam him and didn’t. You are absolutely dreaming if you think Tampa promised him anything. If a team aspired to make them their main back, someone would have claimed him. 

While we can't truly know how much is agent smoke or what was exactly said, it was reported that he basically had his choice between the Bucs, Pats, and Bills yesterday. Surely they weren't all offering the same situation or contract. Given that the Buc's contract he took is heavy on usage based bonuses, I think it isn't unreasonable to assume that he was told that he had a good chance of meeting those bonuses.

But, we'll see how things shake out in the next few weeks. Arians has a history of favoring a workhorse back if he has one, and the team's moves over the last year lead us to believe they don't think they have one yet (signing McCoy, drafting Vaughn, etc). I have Fournette in only one league, but I'm seeing if I can buy low in places where I'm RB needy. If he hits here it'd be a good situation.

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  • Faust changed the title to RB Leonard Fournette, Bucs

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