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RB Leonard Fournette, TB


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15 minutes ago, mcintyre1 said:

Had to chuckle a little bit at this tweet:

Clearly we shouldn't really trust what Arians says. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

People will trust him when he tells them what they want to hear - otherwise it’s “coachspeak”. Funny how that works.

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Justin Boone @justinboone

Early projections for Leonard Fournette from this morning's article:

199 carries
835 rushing yds
7 rushing TDs
34 targets
25 receptions
175 receiving yds
1 receiving TD

Puts him near some of the other high-end RB3/flex types who have question marks like Singletary & Akers.

https://twitter.com/justinboone/status/1301580726614331393?s=21

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Just leaving this here so people can get a sense of what folks are thinking . . .

Walter Football - Ranked 12th - 1050 rushing yards - 56/410 - 13 total TD
FantasySharks - Ranked 15th - 242/1068/5 - 61/442/1
FFCalculator - 23rd
FFToday - Ranked 24th - 194/815/5 - 39/280/0
FantasyPros - Ranked 26th - 181/706/6.7 - 29/214/0.4
NumberFire - Average ranking - 27th
FBG Dodds - 28th - 179/697/4.1 - 23/170/1.1
Diehards - Ranked 29th - 172/568/6.5 - 28/239/1.3
Footballguys Staff - Average ranking - 31st
ESPN - Ranked 32nd - 170/704/5 - 27/193/1
CBS - Ranked 35th - 179/616/3.4 - 22/197/0
Yahoo! - Average ranking - 36th
Fantasy Couch - 41st

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6 minutes ago, cloppbeast said:

Not really salty at all, serious question. Last night when i checked in here after Fournette signed you were beating your chest. 15 hours later you're still in here beating your chest. Don't you have anything better to do?

Relax it's FF. If you're this upset now maybe you should take a step back. It's only going to get worse as the season goes on unless Fournette pulls a hammy getting off the plane. Plus Guys were in here 2 days ago literally quoting me from months ago beating their chest. It's what happens here in the forums. Football's back. Let's Go!

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Stuff like this makes me miss older FF forums where we had a "signature space" - and members who disagreed about players would settle their differences with "signature bets" - if I won I could take over your signature for X amount of time, if you won vice versa. The more outrageous the difference of opinion, the longer the bet. Nothing profane, but it was fun making a Raiders fan wear an "I :wub: the 49ers and Alex Smith is the greatest!" signature for a month. 

Was a good mechanism. I guess we could technically do it with our bios. Maybe there's a rule against it, I dunno. 

Fun Fournette talk - I dig the intensity.  We definitely have the most passionate members of any community. 

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2 hours ago, mcintyre1 said:

Had to chuckle a little bit at this tweet:

Clearly we shouldn't really trust what Arians says. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Obv some inconsistencies there, but tbf IIRC Ellington started that year, got injured. CJ2K took over, got injured then DJ took over. Peyton was the starter to a known RBBC then Rojo played well and then it leaned towards him.

 

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FWIW, in FFT's Chris Towers "bold predictions" today, he doubled down on his Bucs skepticism. I think he's going a little far, but he does make some points: 

The Buccaneers finish bottom-10 in scoring. A 43-year-old quarterback coming off his worst season in a decade-plus switches teams for the first time in his career in an offseason with limited opportunities to practice. That's about five red flags we're ignoring here. This offense was better off with Jameis Winston leading the way.

 

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1 minute ago, Milkman said:

Unpossible Winston>Brady

Winston has a better arm at this stage in Brady's career. 

Brady has a better brain. 

Winston is fearless. That worked to his receivers benefits directly (throwing the ball all willy-nilly) and indirectly (pick-6's put you behind on the scoreboard = more throwing). 

I'm not saying I agree 100% with this, but I get his point 

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36 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

FWIW, in FFT's Chris Towers "bold predictions" today, he doubled down on his Bucs skepticism. I think he's going a little far, but he does make some points: 

 

 

 

Counterpoint is Hall of Fame QB has best skill position players surrounding him in 10 years.  I think it's likely the Bucs won't put up the same offensive numbers as last year but I also think dismissively referring to Brady as "a 43 year old quarterback" like he's Josh McCown is intellectually dishonest.

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13 minutes ago, Tom Hagen said:

Counterpoint is Hall of Fame QB has best skill position players surrounding him in 10 years.  I think it's likely the Bucs won't put up the same offensive numbers as last year but I also think dismissively referring to Brady as "a 43 year old quarterback" like he's Josh McCown is intellectually dishonest.

Like I said, I didn't necessarily agree with him, but he made some points. 

I am actually very optimistic that Brady has one of his better seasons provided the OL is decent in pass pro. He put up top 12 numbers with a thoroughly mediocre receiving corps last year. Edelman who looked beat much of the year was peppered with passes, White & uh....Sanu? With an inconsistent ground game too. 

TB has to be an upgrade from that, so expecting top 8 QB numbers from him at least. 

I'm just sharing what Towers wrote. Don't shoot the messenger. It's all just food for thought. 

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7 minutes ago, Tom Hagen said:

Counterpoint is Hall of Fame QB has best skill position players surrounding him in 10 years.  I think it's likely the Bucs won't put up the same offensive numbers as last year but I also think dismissively referring to Brady as "a 43 year old quarterback" like he's Josh McCown is intellectually dishonest.

Is it intellectually dishonest to worry about a 43 year old QB that had 5 games last year with a passer rating of 70 or less and 11 games with a passer rating under 90? How about 9 games with 0 or 1 TD passes? Or 9 games with a completion percentage of 55% or less? Maybe 7 games with a YPA of 5.6 or less? Seven games of 220 yards or less passing?

I am not saying that TB12 is going to be awful, and having better skilled position players will be a help. But IMO Brady did not look the same last year. I know the narrative is that he had no help to work with, but there were multiple times where guys were wide open and Brady just plain missed them or threw a ball that would have required a very difficult catch to haul in a reception.

Brady's second half of the season at 42 in 2019 mirrors Peyton's second half of the season in 2014 at 38. Manning had a phenomenal first half of the season . . . 29 TDs to 7 INT over 9 games then 11 TD and 8 INT over the final 8 games. By 2015 he was one of the weakest QB options in the league.

As whomever was quoted earlier, switching to a new team and a new system with all new teammates (except Gronk) with very limited practice will be a lot more difficult than people are considering (IMO). I think earlier in the season there will be times where Brady and company will not be on the same page and Tom could easily throw some picks when someone zigged instead of zagged. And as I already indicated earlier, I have concerns that Brady will get pummeled and hurt. He tried to play through injuries the past couple years and that played a role in him looking very ordinary. I don't think it is crazy to wonder what would happen if he got some bumps and bruises.

I would not be shocked if Brady ended up ranking around QB15 . . . potentially lower if he misses games. I know there is a lot of talent on offense, but I don't see Brady throwing 625 or 630 passes like Winston did. They would be better off running the ball more to keep Brady upright.

 

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I'm laughing at the people on twitter bragging about how late they got him as if he should be a 4th rounder or something.

They themselves passed on him multiple times in the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th but they REALLY have him valued as a 4th?

The best part is they are doing victory laps as if he is in a better situation, but they are drafting him later than they were before. 

Edited by kittenmittens
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Speaking Thursday, Bucs coach Bruce Arians said "(we'll) see if (Leonard Fournette) can have a role for next week.”

"Next week," of course, being the Bucs' opener against the Saints. Arians is claiming Ronald Jones remains the Bucs' starter, but he did leave the door open for Fournette to gradually earn a bigger role. “We’re not going to force him; we don’t have to force him," Arians claimed. "We’ll just let him get in his pace and if I know him, he’ll be pretty fast-paced. We’ll try to get him up to speed as fast as we can and see if he can have a role for next week.” It's a bit hard to believe that RoJo is still the unquestioned lead back in Tampa, but we suppose it is at least possible for Week 1. Fournette is certainly who we would prefer in drafts at this late stage of the game. 

RELATED: 

Ronald Jones

SOURCE: Profootballtalk on NBCSports.com

Sep 3, 2020, 7:19 PM ET

 

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2 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Winston has a better arm at this stage in Brady's career. 

Brady has a better brain. 

Winston is fearless. That worked to his receivers benefits directly (throwing the ball all willy-nilly) and indirectly (pick-6's put you behind on the scoreboard = more throwing). 

I'm not saying I agree 100% with this, but I get his point 

Is he talking fantasy or NFL wise, b/c NFL wise Winston ain't good.

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3 minutes ago, Tool said:

Is he talking fantasy or NFL wise, b/c NFL wise Winston ain't good.

I assume FF since he’s an FF writer giving a bold FF prediction for FF in an FF column on an FF site:

FF. Just wanted to say it one more time, it’s fun to type. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I assume FF since he’s an FF writer giving a bold FF prediction for FF in an FF column on an FF site:

FF. Just wanted to say it one more time, it’s fun to type. 

 

 i come here for opinions.  It's up to all of us to take comments & opinions & form your own.  no gotcha moments with me as in, YOU WERE WRONG!

good luck everyone, hope we have a full season.  We could all use it.

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15 minutes ago, shadrap said:

 i come here for opinions.  It's up to all of us to take comments & opinions & form your own.  no gotcha moments with me as in, YOU WERE WRONG!

good luck everyone, hope we have a full season.  We could all use it.

Yep - but it’s good to see what the “experts” are saying, and we can act like it’s a Chinese buffet (RIP “the buffet” concept) and pick a little from column A and a little from column B to decide what we digest & what we choose to leave for other people. 

To some, Tower’s negativity will be the chicken feet (or “paws” as my old favorite spot used to list them). To others Tower’s column will be the pot stickers that everyone loves. 

At the end of the day it’ll all come out the other end the same way. 

And by that I mean we’ll all have a thoughtful and at times interesting/amusing discussion and then go back to our respective lives and draft our respective teams. 

and then we’ll do it all over again next year if we aren’t all dead from the plague.

:pickle: 

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29 minutes ago, TakiToki said:

So if things work out right, Fournette will make twice as much money as he would have and compete for a Super Bowl. Maybe a little LeGarrette Blount action in play here?

Well, the 1st part for sure. 

TB has to get past a very solid Atlanta, a short-window Saints & what might be an upstart CAR in their own division to have a shot at a Super Bowl, but sure, in the sense that literally every team in the NFL is competing for a Super Bowl, yes. lol

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In Jacksonville, Leonard Fournette faced a loaded box on 47.8% of his snaps in 2017, 39.1.% in 2018 and 34.7% in 2019. With an aerial attack featuring Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Bucs saw a loaded box on just 21.5% of snaps — third-lowest in the NFL, per NFL Next Gen.

 

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9 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Well, the 1st part for sure. 

TB has to get past a very solid Atlanta, a short-window Saints & what might be an upstart CAR in their own division to have a shot at a Super Bowl, but sure, in the sense that literally every team in the NFL is competing for a Super Bowl, yes. lol

They have the 5th best odds to win the super bowl. Carolina and Atl are barely on the board, lol 

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What's the last time a team was thrown together like this and did really THAT season? Add in the Covid craziness of this year, no off season, a really tough division to win, etc... I don't find it difficult to see the Bucs not even making the playoffs and TB12 retires. 

 

As for 4net, I can't wait for him to miss a block and gets TB creamed. 

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7 minutes ago, candian fantasy guy said:

What's the last time a team was thrown together like this and did really THAT season? Add in the Covid craziness of this year, no off season, a really tough division to win, etc... I don't find it difficult to see the Bucs not even making the playoffs and TB12 retires. 

 

As for 4net, I can't wait for him to miss a block and gets TB creamed. 

People are misrepresenting how much of the roster has been turned over. The entire defense is the same. All the wideouts and the OL are the same. RoJo is back at Rb. They added Gronk to a good tight end duo and LF to the backs and upgraded to Brady. Not like this is a total roster overhaul. 

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2 hours ago, Grahamburn said:

 

While good info...that was also with a QB chucking the ball down the field in TB.  Will that be the same with Brady...or will there be more people in the box defending the short pass game and trying to push up the middle to the feet of a QB who likes to stay in the pocket?

Its interesting...I have no shares of Fournette...Jones is my RB4 (which when I drafted him the day before Fournette signed I was very happy with...now obviously less).  But I have zero good read on what will happen there.  Was Fournette really a disappointment or just in a crap situation.  

 

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22 minutes ago, sho nuff said:

While good info...that was also with a QB chucking the ball down the field in TB.  Will that be the same with Brady...or will there be more people in the box defending the short pass game and trying to push up the middle to the feet of a QB who likes to stay in the pocket?

Its interesting...I have no shares of Fournette...Jones is my RB4 (which when I drafted him the day before Fournette signed I was very happy with...now obviously less).  But I have zero good read on what will happen there.  Was Fournette really a disappointment or just in a crap situation.  

 

He was their offense.  Defense game plan was "Stop Fournette" as he faced 8-9 men in the box all the time.  He also caught nearly 80 passes.  It will be interesting to see what he can do on a good offense finally

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6 minutes ago, DeaLerZ said:

He was their offense.  Defense game plan was "Stop Fournette" as he faced 8-9 men in the box all the time.  He also caught nearly 80 passes.  It will be interesting to see what he can do on a goof offense finally

Somewhat...but its not as if they did not have decent WRs over the years either.  They had down the field threats...or perhaps those threats were more so because of LF.

Again...will be interesting to see moving forward.  I don't see it a clear situation for a while for either Fournette or Jones.  IMO...even on a bad team, at least in Jacksonville you knew Fournette was going to get volume.

 

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7 minutes ago, DeaLerZ said:

He was their offense.  Defense game plan was "Stop Fournette" as he faced 8-9 men in the box all the time.  He also caught nearly 80 passes.  It will be interesting to see what he can do on a goof offense finally

I'm interested to see how well Tom Brady plays. Last year he was not as good as in the past. This year he is surrounded by a very talented cast, but he is still an old quarterback. We'll see if last year's step back was more due to his cast, or due to his age, or maybe a little of both. Arians has certainly made an effort to help him succeed. 

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55 minutes ago, DeaLerZ said:

He was their offense.  Defense game plan was "Stop Fournette" as he faced 8-9 men in the box all the time.  He also caught nearly 80 passes.  It will be interesting to see what he can do on a good offense finally

A good offense won't force feed an average player the ball.  Fantasy is all about volume.

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I'm glad that Fournette is on a team. I took WRs with Michael Thomas, Golladay, and DJ Moore in an auction league, so Fournette was my top RB. Now I'm stuck with Ingram and Mostert as my starters. I'm keeping Fournette on my bench for now (typical 12-team league), and I can see a situation where if Ronald Jones gets hurt or even struggles at all, it could change quickly. I might just be too optimistic, though. 

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1 hour ago, kittenmittens said:

A good offense won't force feed an average player the ball.  Fantasy is all about volume.

Not an average player, but we can agree to disagree.  This is a situation more about the offense running through Brady and splitting with RoJo and McCoy in passing situations.  No one is saying he is going to be a bell cow here, but it absolutely could happen.  I view him right now at worst a weekly Flex start in that offense when he starts getting usage, and at best a Top 5 RB if he takes over.  Definitely good value either way, and worth taking a flier on.

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2 hours ago, DeaLerZ said:

Not an average player, but we can agree to disagree.  This is a situation more about the offense running through Brady and splitting with RoJo and McCoy in passing situations.  No one is saying he is going to be a bell cow here, but it absolutely could happen.  I view him right now at worst a weekly Flex start in that offense when he starts getting usage, and at best a Top 5 RB if he takes over.  Definitely good value either way, and worth taking a flier on.

I don't think he's going at "take a flier" prices though is he?  He's going higher than that, but still lower than he was when he was a Jaguar. 

An increase in efficiency over the Jaguars poor offense may make up for the lost volume but I don't think this is an area where you want to be spending a 5th or 6th round pick.

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2 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

I don't think he's going at "take a flier" prices though is he?  He's going higher than that, but still lower than he was when he was a Jaguar. 

An increase in efficiency over the Jaguars poor offense may make up for the lost volume but I don't think this is an area where you want to be spending a 5th or 6th round pick.

I doubt I'd take him in the 5th or 6th rounds.  I am only doing auction drafts this year so I am speaking more later in the draft for somewhere close to $10 or less.  His value is really difficult to assess 

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