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QB

$15 - Tannehill - 5

$8 - Palmer - 9

$3 - Fitzpatrick - 5

$3 - Cousins - 8

12% of budget

I don't get all the Brady love. He's 38 and costs more than Rivers (was originally in Tannehill's place on my roster, switched for bye week issues) and a dollar less than an up and coming QB in Tannehill. Anyway, I'm usually a 3 QB guy, but couldn't resist the cheapies and don't expect both to keep their jobs through the end of the season. Fitzpatrick is actually a lot better than he gets credit for and should be better with Decker and Marshall than he was with just Stevie the last time he played for Gailey. Palmer is a guy I couldn't not have on my team for that price. If he stays healthy, he'll be right around the bottom of the QB1/top of QB2 area, which means he'll contribute in best ball.

RB

$27 - Anderson - 7

$21 - Spiller - 11

$15 - Ivory - 5

$12 - Martin - 6

$8 - Mathews - 8

$4 - Artis-Payne

$3 - Michael - 6

36% of budget

Love Anderson in Kubiak's offense. Love Spiller in Sean Payton's offense, although with the injury he's probably not on a lot of teams which I like. Looking forward to seeing Ivory in a good offense. Had Martin the whole time. Was dismayed he got so popular. Mathews is just a great play in best ball with huge upside if Murray misses time. The last two guys are lottery tickets.

WR

$25 - C.Johnson - 9

$19 - A.Johnson - 10

$14 - Decker - 5

$9 - Adams - 7

$8 - Stevie - 10

$5 - Wheaton - 11

$2 - C.Brown - 5

33% of budget

With only two WRs required each week, I lowered my budget/roster spots accordingly. I'm shocked to see so many Julios and not that many Megatrons. I am not usually a WR1 type of guy in this contest, but couldn't pass him at that price. Andre with Luck is going to be awesome. Decker is always underrated and should be the deep ball threat while Marshall works underneath. I expect Decker to be the FF WR1 in this offense. Adams was just a value play because Rodgers is just so good. Stevie also great value. Wheaton and Corey Brown are just cheap starters who can get open deep - good for best ball. Passed on guys like Royal because I'd rather have big play (or TD) WRs than possession guys.

TE

$9 - Eifert - 7

$7 - V.Davis - 10

$6 - L.Green - 10

$4 - Gillmore - 9

$4 - G.Graham - 9

$3 - V.Green - 7

13% of budget

Went with the shotgun approach here since I liked a lot of the value I saw. Had to have Eifert. I really think this'll be a breakout season for him. He's criminally underrated. Davis has a new OC, we'll see if he can get some love this year. The physical abilities and talent are still there. Couldn't pass on that Ladarius upside for only $6. Gillmore and Garrett Graham are really flying under the radar. Bennett had a lot of points in Trestman's offense and he beat out Maxx for the starting job. Graham has had a good camp and should be utilized more in O'Brien offense this year. Virgil Green is a talented guy in a Kubiak offense. I know Daniels is the popular pick, but he's a little fragile and a little old, plus a second TE can produce in that offense.

K

I took Pit, Oak, and Ten kickers for $6 total (2%). All different byes. Gotta have 3 kickers. Might as well make 'em cheap.

D

Cle, Ten, and Oak. $10 total (4%). I had a dollar to spare so I upgraded to Cle. Usually I get three from the bargain basement. All have different byes.

Key bye weeks: W7 - 19%, W10 - 16%, W11 - 13%

QB - 4

RB - 7

WR - 7

TE - 6

K - 3

D - 3

30 man roster FTW.

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It's not too soon to say I'm going to run the Calcomatic again this year 

OK, I dusted off the old live scoring site and loaded in the new rosters. When you get a chance please take a look and let me know if anything looks funny - I haven't had time this year to thoroughly

Looking to go live around August 3rd

RIP non-Gronk owners

Meh. Gronk is awesome, but at $33 he better be awesome. I managed to roster Miller, Daniels, and Ebron at TE and still have an extra $8 to spend on something like Eddie Royal and Cole Beasley.

Sure, Gronk will outscore my starting TE the vast majority of the time, if not every week but his bye. But I've added 2 viable flex options and 2 viable high-variance WRs (or some other combo of players) too.

The goal isn't to maximize TE scoring.

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RIP non-Gronk owners

Meh. Gronk is awesome, but at $33 he better be awesome. I managed to roster Miller, Daniels, and Ebron at TE and still have an extra $8 to spend on something like Eddie Royal and Cole Beasley.

Sure, Gronk will outscore my starting TE the vast majority of the time, if not every week but his bye. But I've added 2 viable flex options and 2 viable high-variance WRs (or some other combo of players) too.

The goal isn't to maximize TE scoring.

ha, fair enough. obviously a nice week 1 performance doesn't actually mean non-Gronk owners are done. I just get caught up in GRONK MANIA I guess.

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RIP non-Gronk owners

Meh. Gronk is awesome, but at $33 he better be awesome. I managed to roster Miller, Daniels, and Ebron at TE and still have an extra $8 to spend on something like Eddie Royal and Cole Beasley.

Sure, Gronk will outscore my starting TE the vast majority of the time, if not every week but his bye. But I've added 2 viable flex options and 2 viable high-variance WRs (or some other combo of players) too.

The goal isn't to maximize TE scoring.

ha, fair enough. obviously a nice week 1 performance doesn't actually mean non-Gronk owners are done. I just get caught up in GRONK MANIA I guess.

It's easy to do and for very good reason. I'm very happy I have him on one of my regular rosters for sure.

But in this format, the 20 from a $10 Miller is more "valuable" than the 34 from a $33 Gronk, assuming the $23 difference was spent wisely (always a dicey assumption of course). The finals, if you make it that far, could be a different story. Seeing as how I only know about the finals second-hand, I'll worry about them when I get there.

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Went with a much smaller (21) stud-theory roster this year than in years past.


I'm not alone in my Brady love this year (only Bradford is more widley owned). As we saw last night, Brady could be the steal at QB. That Week 4 Bye is a thing of beauty. Really wanted Mariota as my backup, as I think he'll have some nice games this year, but he shared Brady's bye-week. Had Tyrod Taylor as my back up for the longest, but glad I settled on Carr for a higher uniqueness factor. Also, there's zero QB controversy in Oakland, and Carr now has Crabtree and Cooper to sling it to. I expect Carr to be contribute a few times this season. Only 265 total rosters with this QB pairing.


Brady (32.4%)

Carr (8.3%)



Went with 3 starters - two studs (Anderson/Murray), one hope-he-lives-up-to-the-preseason-hype (Martin), and one guy with a tremenouds ceiling in PPR (Abdullah). No shared bye weeks was key to only 4 RBs. Surprised that Murray is on so few rosters. He finished as the 2nd overall RB in this contest last year, and goes to a new team with a really good offense. I think he'll still be Top 5 RB at year end. Glad for the uniqueness that he brings to my roster. Only 8 rosters with these same 4 RBs.


Anderson (21.8%)

Murray (6.2%)

Abdullah (35.7)

Martin (37.3)


Went with what turns out to be the All Crowd Favorites team at WR, with the exception of Agholor and Shorts. Actually shocked at the low ownership percentage for Agholor. If Bradford stays healthy all year (as 33.8% of you are banking on, Agholor might finish Top 15 WR this year. Huge value and nice uniqueness. Jones and Cooks are going to be money this year. I'll be Shorts contributes at least 3 scores to my team this year.


Jones (36.5%)

Cooks (27.6%)

Agholor 1366 (10%)

Adams (56.6%)

Shorts (2.6%)

Wheaton (32%)

Royal (36.4%)


Gotta have studs at TE. Had Bennett as my 1 for most iterations, with a slew of value picks (Eiffert, Rivera, Gillmore), but decided that I need more horsepower here. Don't believe that any combination of players will give you what Gronk does, but I hope to be close with these two guys. Surprised that Bennet, the 6th best TE last year in this contest, is on so few rosters. Only 116 rosters have this TE combo (0.8% of all rosters).


Olsen (17.3%)

Bennett (5.6%)


Tried to get a couple of guys that play indoors for their home games and one homer pick (Dawson, Hook 'em). Bullock finished as the number 3 Kicker in this contest, so I liked his value here. Of course, Carpenter finished No. 2 last year and isn't even on an NFL roster as I type this. Only 3 other rosters share these same 3 kickers. I like that.


Hopkins (2%)

Dawson (1.7%)

Bullock (7.7%)


Vikings (11.2%)

Steelers (6.2%)

Raiders (7.2%)


Surprised to see so many Vikings owners (especially at $5). Surprised not to see more Steelers picks. Only 7 rosters with these three Ds.

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RIP non-Gronk owners

Meh. Gronk is awesome, but at $33 he better be awesome. I managed to roster Miller, Daniels, and Ebron at TE and still have an extra $8 to spend on something like Eddie Royal and Cole Beasley.

Sure, Gronk will outscore my starting TE the vast majority of the time, if not every week but his bye. But I've added 2 viable flex options and 2 viable high-variance WRs (or some other combo of players) too.

The goal isn't to maximize TE scoring.

ha, fair enough. obviously a nice week 1 performance doesn't actually mean non-Gronk owners are done. I just get caught up in GRONK MANIA I guess.

There's no doubt that he's great when he's healthy. I think last year was the first year since 2011 that he didn't miss significant time with injuries. If he stays healthy all year, I'll be sad that I didn't roster him, but decided I'd rather spread the money out over a few different players than take that chance.

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I'm curious as to the rationale behind spreading money over many different players as opposed to high priced studs, given that the winner of this contest always has a roster size of 18. How many of the 20+ sized rosters even made the top 10 in past years?

*edit The difficult part of this contest isn't lasting till the final 250, it's having the most points of the final 250

Edited by maf005
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Plenty of cheap kickers out there with their jobs pretty much cemented down. Why take a risk on Scobee and be left hanging with possibly one kicker?

I have three kickers total - but getting the Steelers kicker for $2 seemed too good to pass up. Scobee is a veteran kicker not some rookie fee agent... seemed safe enough before he crapped the bed last night.

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I'm curious as to the rationale behind spreading money over many different players as opposed to high priced studs, given that the winner of this contest always has a roster size of 18. How many of the 20+ sized rosters even made the top 10 in past years?

*edit The difficult part of this contest isn't lasting till the final 250, it's having the most points of the final 250

I dunno whether surviving a shrinkage of 98.15% is less difficult than having the most points out of 250, but you've got some faulty logic baked into your broader argument.

Here is a link to Iggy's numbers for teams surviving to the finals for every year. Historically the 18 team rosters survive at a much lower rate than the larger rosters. There are so many more of those small rosters, however, that it skews the numbers in the finals. For example, while it was true that last year ~27.6% of the teams in the finals had 18 man rosters, ~40% of the submitted rosters were 18-man iterations.

http://o.ffense.com/fbg35k/querier/hist-results.php

I can't readily find top 10 lists for every year, but here is the list from 2013, so the answer to your question was, at least in 2013, "6 out of 10".

1. 18

2. 18

3. 21

4. 19

5. 19

6. 22

7. 21

8. 23

9. 25

10. 20

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Plenty of cheap kickers out there with their jobs pretty much cemented down. Why take a risk on Scobee and be left hanging with possibly one kicker?

I have three kickers total - but getting the Steelers kicker for $2 seemed too good to pass up. Scobee is a veteran kicker not some rookie fee agent... seemed safe enough before he crapped the bed last night.

What's so great about the Steeler's kicker? They have a great offense so that to me means lots of extra points instead of field goals. I dont see what makes Scobee a must have player. Kicker is such a crapshoot anyway. Might as well go with someone who has had their job for a while and has some tenure. Scobee getting traded and then working his way up from third on the depth chart to starting only because of injuries should've been a red flag.

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Plenty of cheap kickers out there with their jobs pretty much cemented down. Why take a risk on Scobee and be left hanging with possibly one kicker?

I have three kickers total - but getting the Steelers kicker for $2 seemed too good to pass up. Scobee is a veteran kicker not some rookie fee agent... seemed safe enough before he crapped the bed last night.

Yeah, I didn't think Scobee was a risk for losing his job any more than any number of other PK out there. Last night was terrible, but there are lots of guys who can be terrible on any given night.

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Plenty of cheap kickers out there with their jobs pretty much cemented down. Why take a risk on Scobee and be left hanging with possibly one kicker?

I have three kickers total - but getting the Steelers kicker for $2 seemed too good to pass up. Scobee is a veteran kicker not some rookie fee agent... seemed safe enough before he crapped the bed last night.

Right. And they traded for him. Which tells me he has a longer leash than some guys.

That said, seabass is still the best cheap kicker.

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Plenty of cheap kickers out there with their jobs pretty much cemented down. Why take a risk on Scobee and be left hanging with possibly one kicker?

I have three kickers total - but getting the Steelers kicker for $2 seemed too good to pass up. Scobee is a veteran kicker not some rookie fee agent... seemed safe enough before he crapped the bed last night.

What's so great about the Steeler's kicker? They have a great offense so that to me means lots of extra points instead of field goals. I dont see what makes Scobee a must have player. Kicker is such a crapshoot anyway. Might as well go with someone who has had their job for a while and has some tenure. Scobee getting traded and then working his way up from third on the depth chart to starting only because of injuries should've been a red flag.

Is my short term memory failing? I thought they traded for him after the other guys got hurt.

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I'm curious as to the rationale behind spreading money over many different players as opposed to high priced studs, given that the winner of this contest always has a roster size of 18. How many of the 20+ sized rosters even made the top 10 in past years?

*edit The difficult part of this contest isn't lasting till the final 250, it's having the most points of the final 250

I agree with going with a low number of players. If you look at the previous top teams, there is definitely a mix of large and small rosters, but what I noticed about the large rosters is that many of them had lots of wasted money in that they had lots of guys they rostered that either never used or didnt need to use because they would've made the cutoff without them when they were used. I'd rather use that wasted cap space on better studs.

That said, I've never gone as low as 18 players. 20-22 is usally my sweet spot.

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RIP non-Gronk owners

Meh. Gronk is awesome, but at $33 he better be awesome. I managed to roster Miller, Daniels, and Ebron at TE and still have an extra $8 to spend on something like Eddie Royal and Cole Beasley.

Sure, Gronk will outscore my starting TE the vast majority of the time, if not every week but his bye. But I've added 2 viable flex options and 2 viable high-variance WRs (or some other combo of players) too.

The goal isn't to maximize TE scoring.

Agree. I got all six guys below for $33. I'm sure Gronk won week 1, but I think my six guys will hold their own even if Gronk stays healthy (big if).

$9 - Eifert - 7

$7 - V.Davis - 10

$6 - L.Green - 10

$4 - Gillmore - 9

$4 - G.Graham - 9

$3 - V.Green - 7

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Plenty of cheap kickers out there with their jobs pretty much cemented down. Why take a risk on Scobee and be left hanging with possibly one kicker?

I have three kickers total - but getting the Steelers kicker for $2 seemed too good to pass up. Scobee is a veteran kicker not some rookie fee agent... seemed safe enough before he crapped the bed last night.

What's so great about the Steeler's kicker? They have a great offense so that to me means lots of extra points instead of field goals. I dont see what makes Scobee a must have player. Kicker is such a crapshoot anyway. Might as well go with someone who has had their job for a while and has some tenure. Scobee getting traded and then working his way up from third on the depth chart to starting only because of injuries should've been a red flag.

Is my short term memory failing? I thought they traded for him after the other guys got hurt.

That could be, but I still think a new guy on a team is volatile enough to avoid at a position that's so easy to find reliable, cheap options.

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RIP non-Gronk owners

Meh. Gronk is awesome, but at $33 he better be awesome. I managed to roster Miller, Daniels, and Ebron at TE and still have an extra $8 to spend on something like Eddie Royal and Cole Beasley.

Sure, Gronk will outscore my starting TE the vast majority of the time, if not every week but his bye. But I've added 2 viable flex options and 2 viable high-variance WRs (or some other combo of players) too.

The goal isn't to maximize TE scoring.

Agree. I got all six guys below for $33. I'm sure Gronk won week 1, but I think my six guys will hold their own even if Gronk stays healthy (big if).

$9 - Eifert - 7

$7 - V.Davis - 10

$6 - L.Green - 10

$4 - Gillmore - 9

$4 - G.Graham - 9

$3 - V.Green - 7

Funny, as I basically did the same but with receivers (adams, dorsett, Wheaton, locket, cbrown instead of Julio or Calvin) but I'd rather have Gronk and risk injury.

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I'm curious as to the rationale behind spreading money over many different players as opposed to high priced studs, given that the winner of this contest always has a roster size of 18. How many of the 20+ sized rosters even made the top 10 in past years?

*edit The difficult part of this contest isn't lasting till the final 250, it's having the most points of the final 250

I don't think what you said is true, but even if it was, that's just due to probability - most of the entries are small rosters, so statistically, a small entry is likely to win. But if you hit on your sleepers (cheap players) then you've got a better chance of survival and a better chance at the 250. They key is hitting on your players and avoiding injury.

Someone posted the % of entries per roster size. Huge amount in the small rosters IIRC.

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Based on the Contest Querier, here are the %s of each roster size.

13,665 Total Teams

18 players - 4,156 teams - 30.4%

19 players - 1,774 teams - 13.0%

20 players - 1,412 teams - 10.3%

21 players - 1,180 teams - 8.6%

22 players - 1,118 teams - 8.2%

23 players - 893 teams - 6.5%

24 players - 749 teams - 5.5%

25 players - 637 teams - 4.7%

26 players - 468 teams - 3.4%

27 players - 366 teams - 2.7%

28 players - 268 teams - 2.0%

29 players - 243 teams - 1.8%

30 players - 401 teams - 2.9%

So over half the entries have a roster of 18-20 players.

Here it is. Over 50% of entries are 20 man or less. Over 70% are 22 man rosters or less. Only 6.7% are 28 or more. 12.8% are 26 or more. So yeah, chances are good that one lucky <= 20 roster squeaks through and wins it just due to sheer volume, but if over 50% were 28+ then you'd likely see the opposite.

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Last year's winner had 24 players. From what I can see, he had 1 $6 RB that he never used, a $7 QB that he used twice but didnt need to use, 1-2 WR/TEs that he used a few times but again would've advanced without them, and the same with one each of his kickers and defenses.

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Survival rates of each roster size from 2010-2014

Size Count Alive Survival Rate
18 24802 282 1.14%
19 9047 133 1.47%
20 6909 136 1.97%
21 5255 106 2.02%
22 4569 112 2.45%
23 3627 95 2.62%
24 2817 86 3.05%
25 2218 76 3.43%
26 1753 57 3.25%
27 1335 44 3.30%
28 1057 37 3.50%
29 881 29 3.29%
30 1477 59 3.99%
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Is anyone doing live scoring this year?

My bad if already posted, but I don't feel like searching the thread.

I don't think Ignoratio Elenchi is doing it. I think he got a new job because of it, actually. (That's what he said earlier.)

But I don't know if anybody else is.

I hope he is, I already donated.

I am, just haven't had a chance to get all the rosters uploaded yet. I mentioned somewhere upthread that I wouldn't have it ready for last night's game but will fire it up in time for Sunday. :thumbup:

Awesome...thanks for doing it again this year.

Donated.

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Plenty of cheap kickers out there with their jobs pretty much cemented down. Why take a risk on Scobee and be left hanging with possibly one kicker?

I have three kickers total - but getting the Steelers kicker for $2 seemed too good to pass up. Scobee is a veteran kicker not some rookie fee agent... seemed safe enough before he crapped the bed last night.

What's so great about the Steeler's kicker? They have a great offense so that to me means lots of extra points instead of field goals. I dont see what makes Scobee a must have player. Kicker is such a crapshoot anyway. Might as well go with someone who has had their job for a while and has some tenure. Scobee getting traded and then working his way up from third on the depth chart to starting only because of injuries should've been a red flag.

Is my short term memory failing? I thought they traded for him after the other guys got hurt.

That could be, but I still think a new guy on a team is volatile enough to avoid at a position that's so easy to find reliable, cheap options.

Scobee did not "work his way up from third on depth chart." He was traded and has as much job security as any of the other cheap Ks. He was only $2 b/c when the roster list was created he played on what will likely be a poor offense in Jax. Going to a high scoring offense made him look like a good option to many, including me even though I ultimately did not pick him.

But he was a perfectly fine option as a cheap kicker.

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Is anyone doing live scoring this year?

My bad if already posted, but I don't feel like searching the thread.

I don't think Ignoratio Elenchi is doing it. I think he got a new job because of it, actually. (That's what he said earlier.)

But I don't know if anybody else is.

I hope he is, I already donated.

I am, just haven't had a chance to get all the roosters uploaded yet. I mentioned somewhere upthread that I wouldn't have it ready for last night's game but will fire it up in time for Sunday. :thumbup:

Fixed. And thanks Iggy :)

-QG

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Who's the one player, knowing what you know now (which isn't much other than ownership stats) you'd have taken and who would you drop?

For me, probably Calvin Johnson. That would mean dropping Landry, c brown, and adams. He's owned by a relatively small amount of teams and could dominate again.

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Who's the one player, knowing what you know now (which isn't much other than ownership stats) you'd have taken and who would you drop?

For me, probably Calvin Johnson. That would mean dropping Landry, c brown, and adams. He's owned by a relatively small amount of teams and could dominate again.

I'd have gone thinner and traded Davante Adams and Julio Jones for Dez and taken the five bucks and invested in another defense and another kicker, per some of the comments from the more experienced guys here. Everybody owns Julio and Adams, it seems.

I'm happy with Sea Bass and Josh Brown, but I probably would have picked up Scobee and another three-dollar defense, hoping that it hit big.

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Who's the one player, knowing what you know now (which isn't much other than ownership stats) you'd have taken and who would you drop?

I kept switching between Brandin Cooks (owned by 3,772) and Jordan Matthews (2,175) for the same price of $21.

I went with Cooks, but would probably prefer Matthews now. Time will tell.

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RIP non-Gronk owners

Meh. Gronk is awesome, but at $33 he better be awesome. I managed to roster Miller, Daniels, and Ebron at TE and still have an extra $8 to spend on something like Eddie Royal and Cole Beasley.

Sure, Gronk will outscore my starting TE the vast majority of the time, if not every week but his bye. But I've added 2 viable flex options and 2 viable high-variance WRs (or some other combo of players) too.

The goal isn't to maximize TE scoring.

ha, fair enough. obviously a nice week 1 performance doesn't actually mean non-Gronk owners are done. I just get caught up in GRONK MANIA I guess.

It's easy to do and for very good reason. I'm very happy I have him on one of my regular rosters for sure.

But in this format, the 20 from a $10 Miller is more "valuable" than the 34 from a $33 Gronk, assuming the $23 difference was spent wisely (always a dicey assumption of course). The finals, if you make it that far, could be a different story. Seeing as how I only know about the finals second-hand, I'll worry about them when I get there.

Miller had like 4 games last year of that caliber. He's a solid option but let's not get carried away. A collection of cheaper tight ends is never going to give you those 30-40 point games that Gronk can give you that carry you through a week. I'd rather spend big money on TE's than WR's because IMO Eddie Royal is a lot more likely to help you at flex than Crockett Gilmore would. And that's just one example.

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Who's the one player, knowing what you know now (which isn't much other than ownership stats) you'd have taken and who would you drop?

For me, probably Calvin Johnson. That would mean dropping Landry, c brown, and adams. He's owned by a relatively small amount of teams and could dominate again.

I'd have gone thinner and traded Davante Adams and Julio Jones for Dez and taken the five bucks and invested in another defense and another kicker, per some of the comments from the more experienced guys here. Everybody owns Julio and Adams, it seems.

I'm happy with Sea Bass and Josh Brown, but I probably would have picked up Scobee and another three-dollar defense, hoping that it hit big.

Would drop Julio for another cheap flier(under 9$) and taken more cheap kickers and possibly an extra D.

I may regret it later but I love my TE Clay play, few owners and I actually have him as a top 5 flier if they use him right as a security blanket (could get a lot of catches and YAC) lol I'm also going with I'm only gambling with my subscriber entry, someone is gambling a trade and HUGE real money on him (top flight TE money). Just like I gambled with Bradford playing out the season for a new big money contract. That is a huge life decision mine was made at 3am after watching NFL round table predictions lol.

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Until the main site gets their summary stats up, here are some preliminaries:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gWKb1_S8kRI3rq1X8hcTP2y4CfQBCJ0rJ98Xa1wUse0/edit?usp=sharing

This is awesome.

Utilizing this I was able to construct what I would term the least unique team possible (that is still valid and has at least one back-up at all positions).

I only had to make these minor modifications to achieve this:

#18 owned John Brown (21.51%) and #19 owned Christine Michael (19.95%) were left off in favor of #20 owned Frank Gore (19.88%). This got the team value to exactly $250

#9 owned Markus Wheaton (32.05%) was left off in favor of #28 owned Indianapolis (18.31%)

(Alternately I suppose I could have kept Brown, Michael and Wheaton on the team and just added Indiapolis - this would yield a $248 team that had the 19 most-owned players plus the 2nd-most owned defense and then as a throw in the 94th-most owned Ryan Succop with those last $2 who is next on the owned list). I'll track both with this in mind :)

18-man version $250, 1st-8th, 10th-17th, 20th and 28th owned

Bye week in parentheses

QB - T Brady $14 (4) 32.37%

QB - S Bradford $13 (8) 33.82%

RB - CJ Anderson $27 (7) 21.82%

RB - F Gore $22 (10) 19.88%

RB - C Ivory $15 (5) 24.52%

RB - A Abdullah $14 (9) 35.72%

RB - D Martin $12 (6) 37.34%

WR - J Jones $26 (10) 36.49%

WR - B Cooks $21 (11) 27.60%

WR - J Landry $15 (5) 22.85%

WR - D Adams $9 (7) 56.64%

WR - E Royal $4 (7) 36.37%

TE - R Gronkowski $33 (4) 21.79%

TE - T Eifert $9 (7) 24.27%

PK - J Scobee $2 (11) 36.77%

PK - S Janikowski $2 (6) 31.33%

TD - Miami Dolphins $7 (5) 22.43%

TD - Indianapolis Colts $5 (10) 18.31%

----------------------------------

Version 2: 1st-19th owned, 28th owned, 94th owned

QB - T Brady $14 (4) 32.37%

QB - S Bradford $13 (8) 33.82%

RB - CJ Anderson $27 (7) 21.82%

RB - C Ivory $15 (5) 24.52%

RB - A Abdullah $14 (9) 35.72%

RB - D Martin $12 (6) 37.34%

RB - C Michael $3 (6) 19.95%

WR - J Jones $26 (10) 36.49%

WR - B Cooks $21 (11) 27.60%

WR - J Landry $15 (5) 22.85%

WR - J Brown $12 (9) 21.51%

WR - D Adams $9 (7) 56.64%

WR - M Wheaton $5 (11) 32.05%

WR - E Royal $4 (7) 36.37%

TE - R Gronkowski $33 (4) 21.79%

TE - T Eifert $9 (7) 24.27%

PK - J Scobee $2 (11) 36.77%

PK - S Janikowski $2 (6) 31.33%

PK - R Succop $2 (4) 6.87%

TD - Miami Dolphins $7 (5) 22.43%

TD - Indianapolis Colts $5 (10) 18.31%

The first version has 18 players with an average ownership of 30.0% (total 540.32%)

The second version has 21 players with an average ownership of 28.61% (total 600.82%) (If you omit Succop the average jumps to 30.30%)

My entry has 9 of these players (version 1) or 10 of these players (version 2)

Curious how other guys stack up against this. I wonder what entry has the most of these players :)

-QG

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RIP non-Gronk owners

Meh. Gronk is awesome, but at $33 he better be awesome. I managed to roster Miller, Daniels, and Ebron at TE and still have an extra $8 to spend on something like Eddie Royal and Cole Beasley.

Sure, Gronk will outscore my starting TE the vast majority of the time, if not every week but his bye. But I've added 2 viable flex options and 2 viable high-variance WRs (or some other combo of players) too.

The goal isn't to maximize TE scoring.

Agree. I got all six guys below for $33. I'm sure Gronk won week 1, but I think my six guys will hold their own even if Gronk stays healthy (big if).

$9 - Eifert - 7

$7 - V.Davis - 10

$6 - L.Green - 10

$4 - Gillmore - 9

$4 - G.Graham - 9

$3 - V.Green - 7

I'd take Gronk over all of those guys easily. Do you see any of those guys capable of having a game where they get like 10 catches for 150 yards and 2 TD's for example? You are guaranteeing a solid floor, but there is a pretty limited ceiling with that group as well.

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Plenty of cheap kickers out there with their jobs pretty much cemented down. Why take a risk on Scobee and be left hanging with possibly one kicker?

I have three kickers total - but getting the Steelers kicker for $2 seemed too good to pass up. Scobee is a veteran kicker not some rookie fee agent... seemed safe enough before he crapped the bed last night.

What's so great about the Steeler's kicker? They have a great offense so that to me means lots of extra points instead of field goals. I dont see what makes Scobee a must have player. Kicker is such a crapshoot anyway. Might as well go with someone who has had their job for a while and has some tenure. Scobee getting traded and then working his way up from third on the depth chart to starting only because of injuries should've been a red flag.

Is my short term memory failing? I thought they traded for him after the other guys got hurt.

That could be, but I still think a new guy on a team is volatile enough to avoid at a position that's so easy to find reliable, cheap options.

Scobee did not "work his way up from third on depth chart." He was traded and has as much job security as any of the other cheap Ks. He was only $2 b/c when the roster list was created he played on what will likely be a poor offense in Jax. Going to a high scoring offense made him look like a good option to many, including me even though I ultimately did not pick him.

But he was a perfectly fine option as a cheap kicker.

Last night, he certainly looked like the kind of kicker a bad Jacksonville team would trade for a sixth round pick.

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RIP non-Gronk owners

Meh. Gronk is awesome, but at $33 he better be awesome. I managed to roster Miller, Daniels, and Ebron at TE and still have an extra $8 to spend on something like Eddie Royal and Cole Beasley.

Sure, Gronk will outscore my starting TE the vast majority of the time, if not every week but his bye. But I've added 2 viable flex options and 2 viable high-variance WRs (or some other combo of players) too.

The goal isn't to maximize TE scoring.

ha, fair enough. obviously a nice week 1 performance doesn't actually mean non-Gronk owners are done. I just get caught up in GRONK MANIA I guess.

It's easy to do and for very good reason. I'm very happy I have him on one of my regular rosters for sure.

But in this format, the 20 from a $10 Miller is more "valuable" than the 34 from a $33 Gronk, assuming the $23 difference was spent wisely (always a dicey assumption of course). The finals, if you make it that far, could be a different story. Seeing as how I only know about the finals second-hand, I'll worry about them when I get there.

Miller had like 4 games last year of that caliber. He's a solid option but let's not get carried away. A collection of cheaper tight ends is never going to give you those 30-40 point games that Gronk can give you that carry you through a week. I'd rather spend big money on TE's than WR's because IMO Eddie Royal is a lot more likely to help you at flex than Crockett Gilmore would. And that's just one example.

I have no delusions that Miller will hit 20 every week or even most weeks. But you can't have delusions that Gronk will hit 34 every week or even most weeks.

The point is that you can't just compare Gronk to "TE X"'s score each week. The savings get spent on other players and those other players will add points and value to the roster, both the added TEs and the other position players. TE isn't like QB.

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Some guys that I thought would be picked heavily...



Luck Total Teams 2016

Brady Total Teams 4423

Bradford Total Teams 4621


Lacy Total Teams 921

Peterson Total Teams 2557

Ivory Total Teams 3350


Brown Total Teams 1684

Devante Adams Total Teams 7740

Jordan Matthews Total Teams 2175


Gronkowski Total teams 2977

Eifert Total Teams 3317

Rodgers Total Teams 2522


That's really less than I thought for most of these guys. Roster diversity may not be a big issue this year.


Just for fun, I checked these...


Jordy Nelson Total Teams 95

Kelvin Benjamin 23

Brandon LaFell 77

Garret Hartley 736

Shaun Suisham 206

Kendal Hunter 43

Brian Quick 988

Logan Paulsen 17

Niles Paul 90


Those are just some names off the top of my head, and granted a large portion of it is Kickers, but there are a large percentage of teams with some dead weight on their rosters already.
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I have no delusions that Miller will hit 20 every week or even most weeks. But you can't have delusions that Gronk will hit 34 every week or even most weeks.

The point is that you can't just compare Gronk to "TE X"'s score each week. The savings get spent on other players and those other players will add points and value to the roster, both the added TEs and the other position players. TE isn't like QB.

But those cheaper guys you add also have to outscore your other starters at that position as well.

So in this scenario, you need one of your other guys you bought instead of Gronk to outscore one of your studs at other positions by more than 14. I don't see that happening very often. So I added Gronk.

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My tally of my entry was 445.91% total ownership spread over 26 players (average ownership 17.15%)

The Go Nelly entry has a total ownership of 519.61% spread over 21 players (average ownership 23.62%)

But that one doesn't win the award for most "common" entry that I could find.

That goes to the Jake Wood entry: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/contest/2015/100011.php

Incredibly, this entry has all of the 9 most-owned players, 12 of the 14 most-owned, and 14 of the 18 most-owned.

The total ownership across 25 players was 556.89%, an average of 22.27% (a couple of his kickers and his 3-defenses bring the average down).

Consider the highest realistic entry I found had 600% as the total added up of owned percentage I think this is almost surely the most common "real" entry. It'll be a tough out but will have an incredibly tough time winning the whole thing.

-QG

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Who's the one player, knowing what you know now (which isn't much other than ownership stats) you'd have taken and who would you drop?

For me, probably Calvin Johnson. That would mean dropping Landry, c brown, and adams. He's owned by a relatively small amount of teams and could dominate again.

Posted the simple scenario that would have led to a team I'd like better upthread. The quick version is AJ Green and Julio out and going only 2 QB.

Really starting to feel like I shoulda rolled cheaper and go Brady/Flacco - roll the $8 into shoring up my RB position more. And going Green instead of Julio so that's $9 for a spare RB upgrade....so let's see....

Kick out Dalton. (-$9)

Upgrade West to Abdullah (+$10)

Swap Julio out and put in AJ Green (-$1)

-QG

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My strategy this year was to start with Gronk and 3 stud WR, all with different bye weeks, and then build from there. Once the Brady suspension was overturned, he was an autopick at his price for QB1 given the early bye week. RB was the spot where I made the most revisions due to spending less there and looking for value. Kicker was a minefield and I went with 2 established dome players. ATL and CHI were locked in at D from the start due to the price and playoff schedules.

Tom Brady $14
Tyrod Taylor $5
-----------------------
Lamar Miller $24
Ameer Abdullah $14
Doug Martin $12
Danny Woodhead $12
Cameron Artis-Payne $4
Christine Michael $3
----------------------------
Demaryius Thomas $29
Julio Jones $26
Calvin Johnson $25
Davante Adams $9
Percy Harvin $7
Dorial Green-Beckham $7
------------------------------
Rob Gronkowski $33
Tyler Eifert $9
Scott Chandler $3
-------------------------------
Matt Prater $4
Blair Walsh $4
-------------------------------
Atlanta Falcons $3
Chicago Bears $3

-------------------------------

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