The Weekly Process..........do you stick to it or stray? (1 Viewer)

I'm fairly new to Daily Fantasy Football, longtime season long player. Most DFS players have some sort of process they go through each week preparing to make their lineups. Whatever it may be, vegas line, projections, etc. After they are done, they usually have a pool of players at each position that look favorable based on those numbers or their process.

I was curious to know how many actually stick to those numbers even if they are surprised with the results when they are done. I have a terrible time myself picking players on bad teams, even when the process/numbers say they are a favorable play.

Another problem for me is I also tend to do a quick look at the first of the week and form some opinions of who I think would be good plays. Then when I do my process, some of the players I thought wouldn't be good end up being that way, and vice versa.

One other question. If you go through your weekly research/process/etc. to get your players, why would you not use them for both cash games and GPP's. Your process is telling you they are good value. I know you want to be contrarian on the GPP side, but I would think a lot of your lineup would still be the players your process tells you to pick. Unless, like I am sure many big time players do, you are playing a ton of lineups in GPP's hoping to hit the right one. The funny thing is, when I look at the winners of the big GPP's, most of the time, they don't have any really of the wall picks on their roster.

I would love to here some thoughts for David and the rest of the guys on the Staff also. Thank you so much for getting more involved in the DFS arena. Love everything I have been seeing so far on the site!

My duties on the staff are doing their best to mess with my system, but this is what I tend to (try to) do each week:

Tuesday: Check Vegas lines to identify gamescripts for selecting plus running/passing matchups (My Vegas Value Chart reflects this process)

Wednesday: Run projections and loosely identify the best value plays

Thursday: Choose my QB/WR cash & GPP plays for the week based on projections, matchups, Vegas lines, and a bit of gut feel

Friday: Choose my RB/TE cash & GPP plays for the week based on projections, matchups, Vegas lines, and a bit of gut feel

Saturday PM/Sunday AM: Make lineups...mostly GPP at this juncture

Sunday: Plop on the couch with my laptop at my side and watch RedZone for 7 hours straight...only standing up for another beer or bathroom break.

Monday is my day off...and my day to sweat GPP's, if it's a good week.

Regarding cash game plays also being GPP plays, often times they are--if you read my 'Tips and Picks' articles from last year, you will see that many of my cash game plays were also potential GPP plays (but not vice-versa). The key is not necessarily value when constructing GPP lineups, but upside...you have to ask yourself if the player has any chance of achieving 3x value (FD) or 4x value (DK). Being contrarian is certainly a component, but that aspect should be secondary to your process (IMO).

John

Thank you so much for the answers, especially your process. If you had to put a percentage on it as far as "gut" feeling how much would you say that plays into it? Example: 25% Gut and 75% your numbers, etc.

Or is it more of a case were you have 8 RB's you like for the week and you use your "gut" to pick the ones you want to play?

Podunker,

I can't speak for everyone, but you can't strictly go by just numbers or everyone's lineups would be the same, generally.

Going by the 'gut' or someone you just like, despite the numbers, is what sometimes puts you over the top, especially in GPP's.

For cash games ... logic and what the data ... Pro Football Focus; Your Site of Choice for FF information (FBG); a few writers that specialize in DFS vs regular FF (Because there is a difference/reach own conclusion on who to trust) and this thing called the Vegas Line. Pretty set recipe for cash and, opinion, follow-it. Variance not an issue with cash games unless you are the guy you decided to fade the obvious play at 1-2 spots. Data pointed towards chalk plays good for cash games.

For GPP ... the above and the gut check. Little variance always helps

As far as a process, I found it was helpful to have a systematic approach to the week. Considering work and hours spent traveling, I found a regiment that suited my schedule and OCD. Track Vegas lines; pull the updated salary template from FD;dummy line-ups to procure spots in contests; start tracking projections from those I follow; monitor injury report/subsequent movement on Vegas lines; have rough list of cash players by Friday night. Let that simmer. Get injury updates Saturday. Get injury news Sunday. Update line-up on Sunday morning.

podunker said:

John

Thank you so much for the answers, especially your process. If you had to put a percentage on it as far as "gut" feeling how much would you say that plays into it? Example: 25% Gut and 75% your numbers, etc.

Or is it more of a case were you have 8 RB's you like for the week and you use your "gut" to pick the ones you want to play?

Click to expand...

My 'gut feel' selections occur when the numbers (projections) are telling me that another player is a better value, but I have some reason to believe the numbers are wrong. For cash games, the numbers largely drive my process, but I am still known to deviate slightly from the projections to roll with a player that I think is is a better situation despite those numbers. For cash games, I'd estimate that it's 85% projections and 15% feeling.

For GPP's, the numbers are only a guide; I'd estimate it's 60% projections, 40% feeling. If there is a fabulous value play that I think cannot miss, I will have that player in nearly 100% of my lineups and won't care about ownership; that said, the remainder of my selections will be largely based on my feeling about the gamescript. For example, I qualified for the FAFC last year when I watched Martavis Bryant make his NFL debut in late October and saw how he opened up the Steelers' offense. The following week against the Colts' high-powered offense, Bryant's projections were negligible, but I thought Vontae Davis would shadow Antonio Brown most of the day, leaving Wheaton for underneath routes and Bryant for deep passes and redzone opportunities. Davis was injured in that game and it turned into a shootout, including two TD-passes from Big Ben to Bryant...and they were both less than 2% owned.