Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
OK, thanks for your patience all - gonna look through the topic now to see if anyone was closer than @yellowdog .
Long day. Sorry again for the delay.
Long day. Sorry again for the delay.
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The Official Kicker (K) Thread (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter SaintsInDome2006
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
OK, here's what I've got:
Entrants:
Lutz = 7 (15), 13.5 (16) = 20.5
Butker = 14.2 (15), 19.2 (16) = 33.4
Elliot = 10 (15), 9.3 (16) = 19.3
Bryant = 8.8 (15), 9.6 (16) = 18.4
Prater= 10 (15), 5 (16) = 15
Gould = 26.9 (15), 7 (16) = 33.9
Zuerlein = 9.7 (15), 0 (16)
= 9.7
Koons = Koons? Who's Koons, @zftcg?
Coons? 0 (15), 0 (16)
Boswell= 8 (15), 11 (16) = 19
Gostkowski = 8 (15), 14.5 (16) 22.5
Tucker = 10.7 (15), 12.3 (16) = 23
McManus = 6 (15), 3.2 (16) = 8.2
Gano = 7.2 (15), 9 (16) = 16.2
Forbath = 13 (15), 11.8 (16) = 24.8
Bailey = 9.5 (15), 17.3 (16) = 26.8
Walsh = 1 (15), 3 (16) = 4
If you check the quote, the parenthesis at the end contains the final score of each team, and in some cases where it's close, the difference between points guessed & points scored.
I continue to be amazed at how good some of you are at these contests - that we had 2 weeks of scoring from 2 kickers, and four (4) sharks were less than 3 points off is just incredible.
But in the end, you had to be within 2 points of the guess, because @yellowdog was just THAT damn good, guessing Forbath and Gano 39.7, with a final from them of 41, a difference of just 1.3 points.
Congratulations yellowdog!
PM me and I'll send you my website addy. Take a look at the catalog & I'll send you any 3 varieties you'd like on Tuesday! 
Entrants:
Here's how those kickers fared:BobbyLayne Butker & Lutz 30.00 (they scored 53.9)
Arodin Elliot and Bryant. 39.7 combined FP. (37.7 - 2 point difference, damn close!)
The Captain Prater and Gould 51.6 combined points (48.9 - 2.7 point difference - also damn close!)
zftcg Zuerlein and Koons, 45 points.- (Coons? 9.7 total. Yeesh. I think you owe me a bottle of sauce for this guess @zftcg)
simey Boswell and Gostkowski 44 (41.5, 2.5 points off!)
Ridcully Gould and Butker....46 combined points (67.3)
Loipz Tucker and Gostkowski: 39 points. (45.5 - pretty close!)
efactor Lutz and Gould: 44 (54.4)
TheAssassin Bryant and Gould: 37 (52.3)
otb_lifer McManu / Gano - 50 (24.4)
yellowdog Forbath and Gano 39.7 (41 - 1.3 points. Incredible.)
IHEARTFF Bailey + Walsh = 40.2 (30.8)
Long Ball Larry Lutz + Elliott = 51 (39.8)
Lutz = 7 (15), 13.5 (16) = 20.5
Butker = 14.2 (15), 19.2 (16) = 33.4
Elliot = 10 (15), 9.3 (16) = 19.3
Bryant = 8.8 (15), 9.6 (16) = 18.4
Prater= 10 (15), 5 (16) = 15
Gould = 26.9 (15), 7 (16) = 33.9
Zuerlein = 9.7 (15), 0 (16)
= 9.7 Koons = Koons? Who's Koons, @zftcg?
Coons? 0 (15), 0 (16) Boswell= 8 (15), 11 (16) = 19
Gostkowski = 8 (15), 14.5 (16) 22.5
Tucker = 10.7 (15), 12.3 (16) = 23
McManus = 6 (15), 3.2 (16) = 8.2
Gano = 7.2 (15), 9 (16) = 16.2
Forbath = 13 (15), 11.8 (16) = 24.8
Bailey = 9.5 (15), 17.3 (16) = 26.8
Walsh = 1 (15), 3 (16) = 4
If you check the quote, the parenthesis at the end contains the final score of each team, and in some cases where it's close, the difference between points guessed & points scored.
I continue to be amazed at how good some of you are at these contests - that we had 2 weeks of scoring from 2 kickers, and four (4) sharks were less than 3 points off is just incredible.
But in the end, you had to be within 2 points of the guess, because @yellowdog was just THAT damn good, guessing Forbath and Gano 39.7, with a final from them of 41, a difference of just 1.3 points.
Congratulations yellowdog!
PM me and I'll send you my website addy. Take a look at the catalog & I'll send you any 3 varieties you'd like on Tuesday!
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Close either way.
I was bemoaning an Elliott miss from 35. Which if he'd made would take me from 2 under to 1.5 over. Still not good enough to beat yellowdog.
We got some kicker savants in this here thread.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
yellowdog
Footballguy
yellowdog
Footballguy
So, I got home from a weekend trip to Indiana to see my daughter and son-in-law Sunday afternoon. Waiting for me was a well packed box of 3 Lucky Dog Hot Sauces:Congratulations yellowdog!
Red Label - Med Sweet & Garlicky Roasted Pepper
Year of the Dog - Thai Chile Pineapple Hot Sauce
Brown Label - Ridiculously Tasty Mustard Chipotle Hot
Tonight, I fried up some leftover ham and some eggs, put them in a tortilla wrap and splashed on some of the "Year of the Dog". DELICIOUS! I can't wait to try the others.
Thanks @Hot Sauce Guy!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Woot! Glad they made it ok! Once again, terrific prognosticating! You are the king of kickerpalooza!
Football Jones
Footballguy
I did my first ever K trade this offseason. I moved Jake Elliott & a 3rd in 2019 for Zuerlein. I have an excellent team, but the competition in that league is fierce due to quite a few outstanding teams so I want to squeeze out any advantage I can. Zuerlein outscored Elliott by over 4 points a game in that league & that's nothing to sneeze at. I'm also quite low on the 2019 class as of right now.
Elliott does have the situation I look for in Ks (like a good offense & defense), but Pederson likes to go for it on 4th down & I'm not sure that's going to change. Also, the Rams will likely have a little less efficient offense in the RZ (compared to Philly) which means more FG attempts yet still has the strong D I like (more opps for the offense).
Zuerlein is the top K in FF, IMO.
Elliott does have the situation I look for in Ks (like a good offense & defense), but Pederson likes to go for it on 4th down & I'm not sure that's going to change. Also, the Rams will likely have a little less efficient offense in the RZ (compared to Philly) which means more FG attempts yet still has the strong D I like (more opps for the offense).
Zuerlein is the top K in FF, IMO.
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Why not
Kai Forbath. Having good camp nut so is rookie they drafted
Kaare Vedvik. Very interesting. Huge leg and kicking well
Sam Ficken. Has done well.
Robert Aguayo. Can he turn it around. Former early pick
- Greg Zuerlein. Great Leg and O. Good climate
- Justin Tucker. Improved O and simply good
- Stephen Gostkowsi. I see decline with Pats but can’t underestimate Tom
- Harrison Butker. Good young guy on interesting O if Mahomes steps up
- Will Lutz. Great O and kicks indoors
- Mason Crosby. I expect big rebound from Pack
- Daniel Carlson. Minny looking good and kicks indoors.
- Jake Elliott. I expect regression as news not great in Philly
- Josh Lambo. Jags are perfect storm with great D but okay
- Chris Boswell. Great O but unpredictable coach and the wind
- Matt Bryant. Super old but consistent for good O
- Matt Prater. Good O and kicks indoors
- Ryan Succop. Tier drop but safe job on hopefully improved team
- Caleb Sturgis. Great O but not safe job. That is issue
- Dan Bailey. Not sure on O but could kick FG. Good location.
- Graham Gano. Good O
- Brandon McManus. Average O but long FG environment for those rule
- Kaimi Fairbairn. Interesting O and location
- Cody Parkey. Have a good feeling
- Aldrick Rosas. I think team that will surpise
- Robbie Gould. Old and Jimmy G scares me
- Eddie Pinero. I think his job and a Gruden will be okay
- Dustin Hopkins. Losing Guice hurts
- Phil Dawson. Old but should have job on not bad O
- Jason Sanders. Rookie on average O
- Zane Gonzalez. Cleveland should improve
- Adam Vinateri. Good place but Indy looks bad even with Luck. Shhotouts
- Chandler Cantazzaro. Okay O but looking at competition
- Randy Bullock. Nothing thrilling
- Steve Hauschnika. Bad type of O.
- Sebastion Janikowski. Old, coming off injury. Job security
- Cairo Santos. Having hammy issues again on low O
Kai Forbath. Having good camp nut so is rookie they drafted
Kaare Vedvik. Very interesting. Huge leg and kicking well
Sam Ficken. Has done well.
Robert Aguayo. Can he turn it around. Former early pick
ZWK
Footballguy
It looks to me like the kicker situation is still fairly up in the air in NYJ, OAK, MIN, MIA, LAC, CLE, NYG, and HOU.
The starter has a stronger hold on the job with the rest of the league, although there is still some uncertainty on teams like SEA.
Any disagreements about which teams should or shouldn't be included on that list?
The starter has a stronger hold on the job with the rest of the league, although there is still some uncertainty on teams like SEA.
Any disagreements about which teams should or shouldn't be included on that list?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Be sure to check back through this thread randomly throughout the season folks… I do intend to once again host “official” unofficial kicker contests… Unofficially, of course.
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There it is
Footballguy
What about Atlanta?ZWK said:
ZWK
Footballguy
I put ATL in the same category as SEA and TB - some risk, but much safer than the 8 I listed. Matt Bryant has an undisclosed injury, but they're calling him a game-time decision for preseason wk2 so it seems pretty likely that he'll be good to go by the opener. And if he's healthy then he has a pretty solid lock on the starting job - he just signed a new 3-year deal this offseason, with $2M guaranteed, and David Marvin doesn't look like much of a threat.
There it is
Footballguy
Thanks man. I read Taveccio {oak} was trying out.
JFS171
Footballguy
I thought Gruden said OAK was going to the rookie. Don't have time to look for the link though.ZWK said:
These unsettled situations with the rookies getting the gig (or some "retread" from elsewhere) are usually the place to find the most value RE kickers, IMO. Two or three years ago Sturgis was awesome for Philly, then last year you had both Butker in KC (though he emerged later in the season) and Elliott in Philly again. Minny, LAC, HOU also likely have strong offenses as well.
Thomas The Skank Engine
Footballguy
Forbath released
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Some of these jobs look like they will come down to Sept. 1 cut day
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
As an aside, since I have finished my best ball leagues, I took an interesting strategy this year with kickers. Around round 17 or so (whenever Gostkowski was at the top of the queue) I would go on a kicker run and take Gostkowski, Tucker AND Zuerlien. I feel in best ball, when you don't need to know which one will go off in a given week, the three together could provide a significant point advantage at the position. The 3 are consistently top 5 kickers and the drop off from the top 5 seems steep before it hits a points plateau. Just curious on thoughts regarding the strategy at the position (can't believe I am discussing kicker strategy...)/
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
Garoppolo: 49ers focusing on finishing in red zoneI just read some good stats on Robbie Gould (San Fran's kicker) and all the success he had after Jimmy G took over last year.
I think he's a good one to target late.
Excerpt:
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Some teams are very good between the 20s and 30s but can't finish the job. Figure that out and you are at least on the guys with most attempts if not fgs.
Hairy Snowman
Footballguy
It isn't over, but I believe it will be Sturgis to begin the season (if for no other reason his kickoffs). But that job will have no security this season IMO. Not sure the kicker doesn't get fired at some point.
Elevencents
Footballguy
I really like Gould and Butker. Grabbed them in pretty much all my best balls. And would throw Lambo in for cheap.eoMMan said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
There’s so much kicker talk, I thought I’d write a handy, concise guide to drafting kickers.
Here is the comprehensive process I’ve employed for years. I hope it’s helpful:
Q: does he have a foot at the end of his leg?
Y/N
if N, pick a different K. :(
If Y, check BYE week.
Q: does he have a BYE of week 9 or later?
Y/N
if N, pick a different K :(
if Y, check his environment
Q: Does he play his home games in a dome?
Y/N
if Y, congratulations! you just drafted a good K.
if N, is he on the west coast at least?
If N, pick a different K :(
if Y, congratulations! you just drafted a good K!
Here is the comprehensive process I’ve employed for years. I hope it’s helpful:
Q: does he have a foot at the end of his leg?
Y/N
if N, pick a different K. :(
If Y, check BYE week.
Q: does he have a BYE of week 9 or later?
Y/N
if N, pick a different K :(
if Y, check his environment
Q: Does he play his home games in a dome?
Y/N
if Y, congratulations! you just drafted a good K.
if N, is he on the west coast at least?
If N, pick a different K :(
if Y, congratulations! you just drafted a good K!
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
lol aren't the top 2 gostkowski and tucker ?? I think your formula is brokenThere’s so much kicker talk, I thought I’d write a handy, concise guide to drafting kickers.
Here is the comprehensive process I’ve employed for years. I hope it’s helpful:
Q: does he have a foot at the end of his leg?
Y/N
if N, pick a different K. :(
If Y, check BYE week.
Q: does he have a BYE of week 9 or later?
Y/N
if N, pick a different K :(
if Y, check his environment
Q: Does he play his home games in a dome?
Y/N
if Y, congratulations! you just drafted a good K.
if N, is he on the west coast at least?
If N, pick a different K :(
if Y, congratulations! you just drafted a good K!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s science dude. Science.
Heres the fact, jack: the top kicker in 2017 scored 164 points in cbs standard scoring. That was Zurlein (a west coast guy, btw, but I digress)
Far more importantly, the 12th ranked Steven Hauschka kicker scoted...wait for it......123 points.
That’s a whopping 41 point difference. Huge, right?
2 kickers hit 160+. And importantly, you’d have to be the first 1-2 guys to take a K to get that extra 10 points, typically several rounds before the end of the draft and everyone makes fun of you for it. That’s an awfully steep price to pay for those 10-Ish points between 1-2 & 3-4. (I refuse to tier kickers.
Additionally, there’s huge fluctuation in who the top 12 K are year to year, because kickers score the most points when their offenses fail to score a TD, which is hard to predict. I recall having a Colts K the year Manning had a ridiculous number of TDs. Staggering # of PATs. Not so hot on the FGs.
So let’s take the #3-4 kickers from last year, Gould (149) & Boswell (146)) - both taken in the last round of my draft yesterday.
But wait, I was using a full season. We don’t play a full season with our magical teams.
So, a quick calculation...carry the 1...and that works out to 14 games worth as
#1 Zurlein: 143
#3 Gould: 130
#4 Boswell: 127
#12 Hauschka (gazuntheit): 108
“Holy spitballs! omg! Jeez Louise! Holy guacamole! That’s still 35 points, a huge difference!”, you might exclaim.
Not so fast young buck. Let’s look at that on a per game basis.
So between the #1 K & the #12 over 14 games we see
#1 Zurlein: +2.5 points per game better than Houschka
#3 Gould: +1.57 ppg
#4: Boswell +1.36 ppg
And the #20 K was just 18 points less than Houschka.
while I realize that people do lose by 1-3 points sometimes. That’s not because they took the wrong kicker, it’s becUse they have terrible luck and the fantasy gods hate them. Perhaps they built their home on an Indian burial ground, or one of their grandparents was cursed by an old blind gypsy woman.
Theres just no difference in the #1 K & the #12 K.
Ya know; I think I’m officially revising my methodology for selecting a K:
#1: does he have a foot at the end of his leg?
Y: draft him.
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