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The Official Kicker (K) Thread (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter SaintsInDome2006
- Start date
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
Good duel tween Seattle n Denver punters last
Elevencents
Footballguy
I suggest starting a new thread then. Let this be for the games and title the other one Kicker Info No Games.
If my kicker is at practice and there is no little plus sign next to his name on CBS I know I’m good.
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Denver Kicker has historically been one of the best until recently. If game 1 is any indication that Denver is going to have a decent Offense this year I expect McManus will end up being a tiop 6 or 7 kicker on the year. Not bad for a WW pickup.
Denver’s punter Dixon has been surprisingly low yardage and inconsistent for someone kicking in the thin air. I cut bait on him a year ago.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
I guess thats why they cut him tooArodin said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Why would Oakland let Lechler go? Arguably the best in the business. It makes no sense.Arodin said:
that guy (and a completely stacked roster) carried me to a championship one year.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m still waiting to hear back from @Joe Bryant
historically I’ve only done about 4-5 a season, so no one’s being deprived yet.
worst case scenario, I’ll drop one in the “anything goes” forum (or whatever it’s called)
VikingFrog
Footballguy
I just ate some of @Hot Sauce Guy‘s sauce on my omelet and it made me drop Lambo for Hopkins.
Now that’s how championship team decisions are made.
Now that’s how championship team decisions are made.
I think this is ok. Let's look at it year to year and case by case. In general, we're 100% opposed to businesses using a thread on the board to promote and advertise their product. That's not why we have the boards. And that's exactly what this is.
But I also recognize @Hot Sauce Guy contributes to the boards. So there is more to the overall picture. And it's not an issue of whether people like a promotion. Of course they like the promotion. The issue is allowing the board to be used for people to promote their business. Let's say this one is ok but let's look at it each year. And if it becomes an issue with too much clutter or other people wanting to jump in, we may change what we're doing.
But I also recognize @Hot Sauce Guy contributes to the boards. So there is more to the overall picture. And it's not an issue of whether people like a promotion. Of course they like the promotion. The issue is allowing the board to be used for people to promote their business. Let's say this one is ok but let's look at it each year. And if it becomes an issue with too much clutter or other people wanting to jump in, we may change what we're doing.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
ETA: word has been given - the K contests will be randomly sprinkled into this topic.
Keep an eye on this space for all your important K news, and a few random unofficial K contests.
Keep an eye on this space for all your important K news, and a few random unofficial K contests.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
McManus. Your'e going to want him as your kicker this year.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Most likely age and contract. Similar to Bailey, Lechler is at a point where the dropoff to a younger guy with a fresher leg is deemed small enough to be worth saving a million or two.Why would Oakland let Lechler go? Arguably the best in the business. It makes no sense.
that guy (and a completely stacked roster) carried me to a championship one year.
As with the kicker moves, this often backfires. Based solely on week 1 it has for the Texans. New guy Daniel finished 31st out of 32 in opening action.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
If I could ask, and someone else mentioned this so h/t...ETA: word has been given - the K contests will be randomly sprinkled into this topic.
Keep an eye on this space for all your important K news, and a few random unofficial K contests.
...could you just ask the responders (hey me too) to provide some reasoning? Just make that a requirement? If someone doesn’t state reasons for the pick don’t give them the sauce. We don’t want 2 pages of dart throws. You may not think the K decision is a big deal but as others have said it can help win games and leagues. The advice here led me to use Gould in 2 leagues last year. In one, the Playoff Semi, I left off with one player to go, Gould down an absurd 20 #%^% points and I win by one, he slammed home a long kick on the last play of the weekend to win it, and I got my playoff final and some dollars. That was gratifying. I can think of at least one other time that happening here for me (Gano with Was). Much respect and appreciation and I hope to try to win some hot sauce of yours one day but please try not to drown our profitable and enjoyable discussion? Let’s try to tie it in to something useful. Thanks.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
A fair request. I don’t see why not.
I don’t think it will be jnstrumental since K’s are such a weekly dart throw, but it’s a super reasonable request & I’ll try to remember to do that as a rule.
A super random & dare I say lucky event. Gould could as easily have shanked 2 & had 1 blocked. I’ve had great kickers give me 1 point & awful ones give me 15.
That’s no different than saying “Brees could as easily have thrown two more picks and lost a fumble. I’ve had great QBs give me 5 points and awful ones give me 30.”A super random & dare I say lucky event. Gould could as easily have shanked 2 & had 1 blocked. I’ve had great kickers give me 1 point & awful ones give me 15.
There is variance at every position. The variance at kicker is higher than at many other positions, but it is still possible to identify some kickers as better than others and thus more likely to succeed long term. That’s no different than any position.
IDP players will know that sack-dependent DL and int-dependent DB have variance as bad or worse than kickers, yet no one is pushing to remove DB from the game.
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
The guy who wrote for FBGs and had the original kicker thread discussed punters, so yeah why not. It’s not usually FF but it could be.Arodin said:
Now that Ray Guy is in the HoF it’s time to let punters out of the closet and bring them into the mainstream of FF!
#PuntersAreFootballPlayersToo
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Most probably wish standard leagues would follow the FanDuel lead & drop kickers, but I’ve always wanted to ADD punters. You look at the top 50 seasons & top 50 career punting averages on pro football reference, and we are living in a Golden Age of Punters.
I know, cray cray talk, nobody cares
rockaction
Footballguy
It's not cray cray. It's called field position. Belichick called his war room in and asked them why they shouldn't draft a punter or a kicker in the early rounds of the draft, given their knowledge of other players. Just did.Most probably wish standard leagues would follow the FanDuel lead & drop kickers, but I’ve always wanted to ADD punters. You look at the top 50 seasons & top 50 career punting averages on pro football reference, and we are living in a Golden Age of Punters.
I know, cray cray talk, nobody cares
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I feel the same way about the golden age of punters. I’ve gotten to watch Drew Brees and Tommy Morstead overvthe years and they’re both the best to ever play their positions fot the Saints, it’s been great.Most probably wish standard leagues would follow the FanDuel lead & drop kickers, but I’ve always wanted to ADD punters. You look at the top 50 seasons & top 50 career punting averages on pro football reference, and we are living in a Golden Age of Punters.
I know, cray cray talk, nobody cares
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s a little different in that Brees passes the ball & creates his own yardage, whereas a kicker is dependent on the offense getting into scoring position.
Even in a 0 TD, 1 Int shutout, Brees could throw for 400 yards & salvage an otherwise terrible day. That K scored zero (and was likely a highly ranked K for the saints, in this example)
Of course. I’ve never disputed that. However any weekly rankings list will be as, more, (or maybe less) effective than a bunch of randos on a discussion board throwing out WAGs (or even SEWAGs)
Guessing who will be best or worst every week is what, a 0-20 pt swing? probably usually more like 4-12 point swing for the average K score. And other than severe weather warnings or injury, not much will be predictable about who’s a 4 point kicker & who’s a 12 point kicker week to week. The outliers will occur too (0 or 20) of course, but again, kickers don’t make their own yards, so guessing who’ll have the most opportunity is such an unpredictable variable.
You know for a fact that Drew Brees is going to throw the ball. He will score some points.
DBs are widely referred to as “the kickers of IDP” for a reason.
There’s a reason that tackle-heavy safeties are more valuable than guys like Champ Bailey - opporunity. And like kickers, that opportunity is going to be kind of limited & random, and it’s out of their control.
Champ doesn’t decide when people throw at Champ. Champ might have a 3 int game, but more typically he’ll have a zero because QBs didn’t throw at Champ’s side.
It’s an interesting debate, the true value & predictability of Kickers. Count me on the side that it’s more random WAG than skillful guess.
I don’t really see it as analogous to projecting QBs or RBs.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Very generous and kind of you. Would you mind if he ran his contest in its own thread, so those of us who believe kicker analysis is worthwhile can continue to use this thread for its original purpose without the contests mucking it up?
I disagree, if only because predicting which offense is going to be better than others is not random. Yes, offensive performance affects kicker opportunities...just like offense and game script affect RB opportunities or QB chances. When a receiver is interefered with in the end zone on a bomb, setting up the ball at the 1, so the back plows it in...the receiver is affected by the rest of the offense the same way a kicker is when the back is stuffed and creates a field goal attempt.
Look back at your kicker contests...yes, it is hard to pick the exact kicker, just like a conte to pick the QB who throws for the most yards in a week would be hard. But notice that he kickers chosen are not a random sampling from around the league. They are drawn from a select few of the “best” kickers, who generally are above average in weekly output. If it was truly random we’d expect more people picking Zane Gonzalez or Dustin Hopkins.
Aerial Assault
Footballguy
Not at all GB. I really enjoy watching punters and tracking their performances and stats. I always get a kick (pun not intended) out of it when some idiot announcer lampoons punters like they're not important.Most probably wish standard leagues would follow the FanDuel lead & drop kickers, but I’ve always wanted to ADD punters. You look at the top 50 seasons & top 50 career punting averages on pro football reference, and we are living in a Golden Age of Punters.
I know, cray cray talk, nobody cares
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Again - not disagreeing. Good kickers from good teams in good conditions typically score well.
but there’s no way to accurately separate the top 12-16 kickers.
and since that’s the size of most leagues, that means any kicker in the (fantasy) league has a good chance of being the top kicker that week.
Again, it’s a fun debate & I welcome the discussion. It’s ok to disagree - I appreciate your passion for the subject.
I still think it’s random though.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Isn’t saying “there’s no way to accurately separate the top 12 - 16 kickers” the same as saying there’s no way to separate the top 12-16 quarterbacks?Again - not disagreeing. Good kickers from good teams in good conditions typically score well.
but there’s no way to accurately separate the top 12-16 kickers.
and since that’s the size of most leagues, that means any kicker in the (fantasy) league has a good chance of being the top kicker that week.
Again, it’s a fun debate & I welcome the discussion. It’s ok to disagree - I appreciate your passion for the subject.
I still think it’s random though.
I mean, there is a way to separate them, based on perceived or expected opportunity and talent. And the results may end up being somewhat random.
Your honor, the court would like to call to the stand... Ryan Fitzpatrick. The 23rd ranked QB last week who outscored the 2nd highest scoring QB by over 10 points.
apalmer
Footballguy
I'm confused. I thought the purpose of getting Joe's approval was so you could create a separate thread for the contest.ETA: word has been given - the K contests will be randomly sprinkled into this topic.
Keep an eye on this space for all your important K news, and a few random unofficial K contests.
KingPrawn
Footballguy
Exactly. Looks like we'll have to continue to sort through 3 pages of random names and numbers if we want to get anything relevant on kickers. And yes, HSG, there isn't a lot of kicker news from week to week. But when there is, I don't want to sort through pages and pages of kicker guesses to get to it. There is absolutely no reason now for you not to start your own thread for your kicker contest. Be a stand up guy and please take the contest elsewhere.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I asked if I could make it it’s own topic.apalmer said:
Joe said to keep it in here.
It’s his website - I just follow the rules.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
There hasn’t been a K update this week. Not one.KingPrawn said:
The K contests happen a couple fines a year.
There isn’t one this week, for example.
I was told to do them in here. I am a stand up guy - my following the rules of the community poves that.
ps - this isn’t a news site. It’s a fantasy football discussion community.
If your biggest complaint here is that you’re looking for important K news & don’t want to scroll through people guessing kicker stats, perhaps Rotoworld is a better resiurce for breaking kicker news. Most folks simply cut & paste news from CBS or Rotoworld here anyway.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
See my comment about how QB’s make their own yards.VikingFrog said:
Kickers are at the mercy of the offense to create opporruniries.
Using Fitz as an example, I’m sure the Bucs kicker was ranked pretty low because of people’s expectstions of Fitz. He probably had a good day.
Fitz was an outlier that no one predicted. The variance is likely much lower for the top 12 QBs that people predicted to do well, right?
QBs aren’t analogous to Kickers. They make their own yards.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
So change it to WR. They don’t make their own yards and are at the mercy of the offense to create opportunities.
This argument could probably go in circles forever.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Which is why WRs are historically more unpredictable week to week than RBs.
It’s also why historicaly RBs have gone earlier in drafts, and why someone like Antonio Brown is so valuable - his consistency.
That’s why earlier (like 1 page back) I mentioned QBs & RBs, but not TEs & WRs.
You're actually helping my argument here.
And even then; both WR & TE are more predictable than K’s.
Assuming you have a #1 or #2 WR or a #1 TE, you can somewhat predict usage/number of targets per game.
Kickers usage is unpredictable, because for FGs you need a specific set of circumstances. Essentially you have to predict how many time a team will fail to score inside ~35-40 yards. That’s pretty hard to do.
Maybe a team like Atlanta, who’s struggled with that for a while, but otherwise kickers are at the mercy of the offense, where they have to be good enough to create the opportunity, but not so good that it results in a TD (1 point for the K).
With WRs & TEs you can guess who’s covering them - if it’s a top cover DB or S, (or even a cover-LB like Deion Jones) you can project relatively low numbers for the receivers. If it’s an injury replacement 3rd string scrub at DB you can project relatively high numbers.
with “skill positions” you have so much more information available within the game to make a more accurate projection/prediction.
With K, you know:
• Is the offense good? (Creates opportunity)
• is the defense good? (Bad D = blowouts = bad for K)
• is the weather good / bad / irrelevant?
that’s about it. And within the top 12-14 K, I would assume they’re all on good offenses, so that makes that information somewhat irrelevant.
information is key in any projection or predictive model.
Projecting skill positions is like playing poker.
Projecting kickers is like piayjng a slot machine.
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The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Dan Bailey should be getting some phone calls
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Bailey can wait until some team pays him what he's worth. There are some bad kickers in the NFL right now.
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