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Cooper Kupp


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5 hours ago, thriftyrocker said:

Bad offense is certainly the most harsh criteria here. Jordan Matthews I think is a good, definitely not great NFL WR, but given a similar role with both a below average starter (Bradford) in 15 and a rookie (Wentz) in 16 as the WR1 of the offense in he was ok at best for fantasy, despite the offense putting up a decent volume of attempts. At this point Goff seems no better than either of those options. If the Rams had a great QB then I wouldn't see much reason for pessimism. There's not enough of those QBs to go around. Although if somehow the Rams end up with Cousins I'd be sufficiently (more) excited for Kupp. As someone who's optimistic for Kupp, replicating what Sanu and Boldin did last season would be worthwhile to cement him as an NFL starter, and hope the Rams situation improves. Matthews' rookie season he put up 67/872/8 with Foles and Sanchez as the QB and Maclin still on the team. I don't see why Kupp can't get 67 catches even with Woods and Austin taking some snaps at slot. If he replicates Matthews' rookie season what is his dynasty value next year in PPR leagues? Top 50 overall? Matthews was a top 30 player his 2nd year, partly due to Maclin leaving and the Chip Kelly buzz not wearing off. If McVay's reputation as innovator or QB whisperer is somehow reinforced by 17 then it's possible Kupp could be highly valuable despite his limitations.

I think the comparison to Matthews is a good one and one that I was going to make. I think those numbers are well within the realm of possibility. And for those who want to contend that that was a better offense and team the Kupp has now, Landry had 84/758/5 his rookie year on an 8-8 Dolphins team that was so bad to start the year that Tannehill was publicly told to step up or get benched. That year, Lamar Miller only just broke 1000 yards (he would've been short if not for 178 yards in week 17) and Mike Wallace was their WR1 with 67/862/10. They were not a good team but there was decent production to be had. Kupp's going to do it. He was picked by the new coaching staff and has an OC who knows what to do with a slot receiver. I wouldn't be surpised if he ends up as the WR1 or within 100 yards of the WR1 for the team. I think Everett is his biggest competition but we will have to see how he handles the TE college to NFL leap

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The limitations seem to stem mostly from the view about Kupp not being fast enough in his timed speeds. The perspective of him only functioning as a slot WR are related to this as well. There is some logic to support this as NFL corners are very fast, so matching up on the outside becomes more difficult against these players for a slower WR. There is also some charting data on Kupp that supports the view of him running more routes from the slot position than from the outside. He did.

What gets lost in this evaluation however is some of the other metrics on Kupp are very good, for example his 3 cone times 6.75 combine and 6.53 at pro day are excellent and you see him demonstrating that change of direction ability on the field when he breaks off his routes, there is some quick twitch ability being demonstrated and that is why he gets so open because of sudden he is with his breaks. This is something that translates into successful WR play from any starting point of the alignment. He is not limited to just running drag routes across the middle and looking for a match up against slower players because of his route running ability and being able to create separation with sudden breaks of his routes.

He reminds me a bit of Jordy Nelson as a route runner and I can see him winning in similar ways as Nelson in the NFL.

Another player who people have pegged as a slot receiver only is Stefon Diggs, but what Diggs does to win works from the outside as well. Kupp is a taller player than Diggs, but I see some similarities between them as far as how they break off their routes quickly and leave defenders in the dust because of it.

 

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17 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

The limitations seem to stem mostly from the view about Kupp not being fast enough in his timed speeds. The perspective of him only functioning as a slot WR are related to this as well. There is some logic to support this as NFL corners are very fast, so matching up on the outside becomes more difficult against these players for a slower WR. There is also some charting data on Kupp that supports the view of him running more routes from the slot position than from the outside. He did.

What gets lost in this evaluation however is some of the other metrics on Kupp are very good, for example his 3 cone times 6.75 combine and 6.53 at pro day are excellent and you see him demonstrating that change of direction ability on the field when he breaks off his routes, there is some quick twitch ability being demonstrated and that is why he gets so open because of sudden he is with his breaks. This is something that translates into successful WR play from any starting point of the alignment. He is not limited to just running drag routes across the middle and looking for a match up against slower players because of his route running ability and being able to create separation with sudden breaks of his routes.

He reminds me a bit of Jordy Nelson as a route runner and I can see him winning in similar ways as Nelson in the NFL.

Another player who people have pegged as a slot receiver only is Stefon Diggs, but what Diggs does to win works from the outside as well. Kupp is a taller player than Diggs, but I see some similarities between them as far as how they break off their routes quickly and leave defenders in the dust because of it.

 

Good post to highlight some of the positives on Kupp- he's very agile. The Diggs and Jordy comps for route running are interesting but like you said, it comes back to speed. Kupp is a lot slower than those guys (4.45 for Diggs, 4.50 for Jordy, 4.62 for Kupp). 

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On 7/22/2017 at 2:17 PM, Biabreakable said:

The limitations seem to stem mostly from the view about Kupp not being fast enough in his timed speeds. The perspective of him only functioning as a slot WR are related to this as well. There is some logic to support this as NFL corners are very fast, so matching up on the outside becomes more difficult against these players for a slower WR. There is also some charting data on Kupp that supports the view of him running more routes from the slot position than from the outside. He did.

What gets lost in this evaluation however is some of the other metrics on Kupp are very good, for example his 3 cone times 6.75 combine and 6.53 at pro day are excellent and you see him demonstrating that change of direction ability on the field when he breaks off his routes, there is some quick twitch ability being demonstrated and that is why he gets so open because of sudden he is with his breaks. This is something that translates into successful WR play from any starting point of the alignment. He is not limited to just running drag routes across the middle and looking for a match up against slower players because of his route running ability and being able to create separation with sudden breaks of his routes.

He reminds me a bit of Jordy Nelson as a route runner and I can see him winning in similar ways as Nelson in the NFL.

Another player who people have pegged as a slot receiver only is Stefon Diggs, but what Diggs does to win works from the outside as well. Kupp is a taller player than Diggs, but I see some similarities between them as far as how they break off their routes quickly and leave defenders in the dust because of it.

 

Jordy had a significantly better athletic profile than Kupp. He had Kupp beat by 1 inch of height, 1 inch of arm length, 13 pounds, 0.11 seconds in the 40, and 8 inches in the broad jump.

It's concerning that Kupp had bad workout numbers in both the 40 and the jumps, since it's relatively rare for a receiver to have much NFL success after doing poorly in both. It's not unheard of (see: Antonio Brown, Jarvis Landry, Anquan Boldin, Willie Snead), but it doesn't happen often.

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Moved up from my 2.9 to 2.7 (had to include a 2018 third) to make sure I got him. Really think he has a good chance to catch a bunch of balls this year. Probably will never be a #1 WR but not everybody can, as a late second rd pick I'm happy with decent WR3 numbers

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5 hours ago, ZWK said:

Jordy had a significantly better athletic profile than Kupp. He had Kupp beat by 1 inch of height, 1 inch of arm length, 13 pounds, 0.11 seconds in the 40, and 8 inches in the broad jump.

It's concerning that Kupp had bad workout numbers in both the 40 and the jumps, since it's relatively rare for a receiver to have much NFL success after doing poorly in both. It's not unheard of (see: Antonio Brown, Jarvis Landry, Anquan Boldin, Willie Snead), but it doesn't happen often.

Your pretty much confirming my point that the perception about Kupp not being an outside WR stems from the 40 time while adding the jumps into that equation.

I was comparing his play style as far as the quickness of how he breaks off his routes to Jordy Nelson and Diggs, not the information you are talking about.

Plaxico Burress, Keenan Allen, Chad Johnson would be other WR who I would say has been successful from your relatively rare link.that is pretty noisy including all drafted players.

I'm not convinced that these metrics are very good at predicting success at the WR position. Success comes from all over the place in regards to this and there is very poor correlation between any of these metrics and the WR position. Some traits are found to be predictive at most other positions, but not WR.

FWIW the 40 time is the most predictive for all NFL players, but that correlation is stronger at positions other than WR.

Here is a study I found most interesting in regards to this.

Quote

None of the coefficients came out as significant for WR’s.  In fact, WR’s are the only position in which the model can’t significantly predict success.  This is somewhat surprising.  Maybe route-running abilities really are more important than raw athleticism.  Also there are different types of receivers in the NFL ranging from smaller, more agile slot receivers to big, strong possession guys.  So maybe there just isn’t a simple linear model that account for this variability in predicting success.

Another important factor for WR success (productivity) in the NFL is the QB and offense the player is with. Jordy Nelson is a good player but likely would not have had as productive career with lesser QB play.

In a later graph you see that 40 time is the only metric with good correlation with player AV in their first 3 seasons. Every other category was below .8 while 40 time had a solid 1 cc

Quote

We see that the forty, weight, and three cone have the highest overall importance across positions, while bench has the smallest.  Note however, that the error estimates for all factors are still relatively large due to the noisy, limited amount of data.

Then following this a graph showing the importance of combine data by position. WR is by far the most poorly correlated position in the NFL.Most of the positions had .8 correlation except for WR (.24 ? terrible) and FS (.61 not quite the .8 we are looking for)

Edited by Biabreakable
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Senior Bowl 2017: Meet Cooper Kupp, the most talked-about player in ...

Catapult Sports -- which is tracking Senior Bowl players this week using "wearable GPS technology" -- clocking him as the fastest player on the North team at a max running velocity of 20.7 mph.

He plays faster than his 40 time.

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2 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

That would be awesome if only the QB was good, or even mediocre.  I'd be shocked if any Rams WR ended the year as a WR2.

Kenny Britt had a nice 2016. There is room for something if someone can step up. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Third-round pick Cooper Kupp is listed as a starter on the Rams' first depth chart of preseason.

Kupp is slated for the Jamison Crowder role in new Rams coach Sean McVaey's offense, while Robert Woods serves as the Pierre Garcon, and Tavon Austin does a destitute man's impression of DeSean Jackson. The favorite to lead L.A. in targets is Woods, but we wouldn't rule out Kupp passing him. Jared Goff figures to remain a checkdown machine, and Kupp will run high-percentage slot routes.

Aug 7 - 5:34 PM

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Coach Sean McVay praised third-round WR Cooper Kupp following Monday's practice.

"I see a mature rookie," McVay said of the 24-year-old. "[He's] one of those receivers that sees the game through the quarterback's eyes. He always has a plan at the line of scrimmage, understands coverages and route concepts, and I think that's what enables him to be such a productive player and very advanced for a rookie." McVay made it a point that he expects Kupp to contribute immediately. Already listed with the starters on the Rams' first depth chart, Kupp and Jared Goff reportedly have developed a strong rapport. Kupp might be the most intriguing pass-catcher on the team from a fantasy standpoint and is still free in fantasy drafts.

Source: Raymond Summerlin on Twitter

 

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On 7/28/2017 at 10:49 AM, Ilov80s said:

Kenny Britt had a nice 2016. There is room for something if someone can step up. 

He was WR 27, aka not a WR2.  I think that someone from the Rams could be a WR3, possibly 2 players, but I think it will take at least 1 more year for them to crack the top 24.  Their o-line is improved, and IMO their coaching is much improved, but they'll need time for Goff to grow.

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this

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He was WR 27, aka not a WR2.  I think that someone from the Rams could be a WR3, possibly 2 players, but I think it will take at least 1 more year for them to crack the top 24.  Their o-line is improved, and IMO their coaching is much improved, but they'll need time for Goff to grow.

 

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2 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

He was WR 27, aka not a WR2.  I think that someone from the Rams could be a WR3, possibly 2 players, but I think it will take at least 1 more year for them to crack the top 24.  Their o-line is improved, and IMO their coaching is much improved, but they'll need time for Goff to grow.

He was WR22 in my league. The difference between WR22 & WR28 was .25 points a game. Point being there is no magical line drawn after WR24, separating him from WR25. In my league WR25 outscored WR24 in 10 of the 15 weeks.

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3 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

He was WR 27, aka not a WR2.  I think that someone from the Rams could be a WR3, possibly 2 players, but I think it will take at least 1 more year for them to crack the top 24.  Their o-line is improved, and IMO their coaching is much improved, but they'll need time for Goff to grow.

He missed a game. He was WR23 in ppg in my league...but I still mostly agree with your point.

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3 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

He was WR 27, aka not a WR2.  I think that someone from the Rams could be a WR3, possibly 2 players, but I think it will take at least 1 more year for them to crack the top 24.  Their o-line is improved, and IMO their coaching is much improved, but they'll need time for Goff to grow.

I'd gladly take Kupp being a WR3 or somewhere around top 30 his rookie year

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27 minutes ago, Bfrahm3 said:

I'd gladly take Kupp being a WR3 or somewhere around top 30 his rookie year

I'm not sure that out of the slot Kupp will get enough work to be a top 30 WR this year. I think his potential is great, especially if his alleged rapport with Goff is as good as reported, but I don't think he's their #1 WR this year.  Idk who it will be, maybe Woods, but either way, I think the Rams only have 1 WR in the top 36 and I don't think it's Kupp.  My estimate is that he struggles to start the season but finishes strong.  His PPG in the final 1/3 of the season will be top 30, but his 1st half of the season will be very poor.  Purely basing this on him being a rookie, the fact that they have a first time head coach who's trying to also be OC, and their 2nd year QB learning another new system.

I bought in to his long term potential though and own him in Dynasty.  He's an old rookie, but he's more polished than most rookie WRs.

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Hopefully Cooper gets Goff to a great start...

But seriously, you see the narrative over and over here that Crowder could grab 100 catches for Washington this year in the exact role that Kupp is going to have with the Rams. Crowder is faster with more burst but he is inferior to Kupp in all other metrics. Also, Kupp dominated at his level of competition whereas Crowder was just good in college. Quarterback quality is a big difference in their potential outcomes but if Crowder really is a threat for 80-100 catches, how can we not look for a similar return on Kupp who has a dink and dunk QB and relatively poor competition for targets in a losing offense (as opposed to Cousins airing it out and having Reed/Pryor to throw is too).

Let's not kid ourselves, Kupp is already the WR2 on this team at least. Woods isn't bad but has never realized his potential and Austin's next good season, fantasy or real football, will be his first.

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20 minutes ago, kutta said:

I agree, but that was a pretty bad drop he had.

He had some head scratching drops at times in cuts up that I watched of college games too.

He catches most everything though and was targeted a ton at the college level. So wasn't very concerning to me.

Eastern Washington was is not a team Bill C charted so I didn't have any target data to look at as far as what Kupps reception rate and yards per target were though.

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10 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

He had some head scratching drops at times in cuts up that I watched of college games too.

He catches most everything though and was targeted a ton at the college level. So wasn't very concerning to me.

Eastern Washington was is not a team Bill C charted so I didn't have any target data to look at as far as what Kupps reception rate and yards per target were though.

5.11 per route run outside of the slot last year and 3.32 per route run.

I had reception data somewhere but I can't find it at the moment.

Tex

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Rams WR Cooper Kupp caught 2-of-3 targets for 35 yards in Saturday's preseason opener.

He also recovered a fumble in the end zone for a touchdown. Listed as a starter on the Rams' initial depth chart, Kupp has a knack for getting open. There are major stumbling blocks ahead of him for rookie targets, but it's not outside the realm of possibility he works himself ahead of Robert Woods in 2017.

 

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Was hoping for big things from him this year and Sammy hurts that a decent amount but now he just needs to move past woods to be option #2 and Sammy could actually help open stuff up underneath for him 

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57 minutes ago, Bfrahm3 said:

Was hoping for big things from him this year and Sammy hurts that a decent amount but now he just needs to move past woods to be option #2 and Sammy could actually help open stuff up underneath for him 

I've seen people saying that Watkins arrival is bad for Kupp, but Watkins being on the field is going to open up the middle of the field even more for Kupp to work, and Goff will more times than not opt for the check-down.

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6 minutes ago, King of the Jungle said:

Is he in over Woods/Austin? That is my concern.

I could see him being enough of a threat in the slot that he will force them to go to many more 3 WR sets.  I'm hoping he is used as Goff's safety net for PPR value for his rookie year.

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It's actually "2 Gurley's, 1 Kupp", ahahaha, that's golden!

On 2017-08-08 at 8:37 PM, gabes1919 said:

 Austin's next good season, fantasy or real football, will be his first.

Poor Tavon Austin, signed a six-year, $56.14 million contract and will be hard pressed to see consistent targets. The deal includes $30 million guaranteed. Another $10 million is available through incentives.  What a waste of $$$$$$!

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http://www.espn.com/blog/los-angeles-rams/post/_/id/34795/rams-rookie-cooper-kupp-already-looks-like-an-nfl-receiver?ex_cid=espnapi_public

Rams rookie Cooper Kupp already looks like an NFL receiver

Cooper Kupp, WR, third round (No. 69): Kupp, already 24, is about as polished as a rookie receiver gets. He's a precise route runner with reliable hands and great field awareness, which he showed while hauling in a couple of passes for 35 yards against the Dallas Cowboys. Kupp has already solidified a role as the Rams' slot receiver, an he will be heavily involved.

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This made me laugh, from Rotoworld:

 

At the very least, you can tell Goff is now part of a legitimate offensive scheme. Jeff Fisher didn't bother with that. Goff was locked onto third-rounder Kupp. He'll get the Chargers in the Rams' regular season dress rehearsal next Saturday night.

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I'm grabbing him everywhere I can.  His adp is moving on up just like Golladay's did last week.  I saw Golladay jump up around the end of the first round-beginning of the second in several dynasty drafts.  I can see Kupp's stock doing the same thing.  I Took him 2.4 and 3.8 (smaller benches pushed him back) this week in two dynasty drafts.

 

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last week it was WR Golladay that was huge monster next Calvin

this week based on a pre-season game its Cooper Kupp

next week it'll be Taje Sharpe WR TEN ....... oh wait, that was LAST years preseason sensation.

I like Kupp fine, I like quite a few other rookies better, and Goff and the Rams aint going to be a 5500 yards passing, 35 TD team methinks. 

The FF shark play is Watkins right now - silent in pre-season games, a been there, done that WR. 

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9 minutes ago, Stealthycat said:

last week it was WR Golladay that was huge monster next Calvin

this week based on a pre-season game its Cooper Kupp

next week it'll be Taje Sharpe WR TEN ....... oh wait, that was LAST years preseason sensation.

I like Kupp fine, I like quite a few other rookies better, and Goff and the Rams aint going to be a 5500 yards passing, 35 TD team methinks. 

The FF shark play is Watkins right now - silent in pre-season games, a been there, done that WR. 

I disagree.  For the price, I'm going after Kupp instead of Watkins between the two.  Watkins owners aren't selling cheap just because he's been quiet on a new team in preseason.  Kupp is way cheaper right now and could score very closely to Watkins.  Even more so if Watkins had another injury. 

Kupp reminds me of a Doug Baldwin or Eric Decker type player.  Gets passed over each year until all of a sudden he is putting up low end WR1 stats.  Even then continues to be passed for guys with better draft pedigree or bigger names.  I'll take him. 

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