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Tyrell Williams, Raiders WR (Deep dynasty watch)


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49 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

This. I commented on this previously here and quite a bit earlier in this thread.

You and SSND are probably correct, you both have certainly put more thought into it than I have.  But, presuming Keenan Allen comes back healthy, I think Williams demonstrated that he is clearly the unquestioned #2 WR on the team (IMO he looks much better than Malcom Floyd ever was). I think the division of market share that gets shifted to Allen will come primarily from Gates, Inman, Benjamin and even Gordon (plus a redistribution of the 57 targets that went to the likes of Farrow, Mccluster, Woodhead etc).  Mind you I think Hunter Henry's market share should increase as well but I don't see why Rivers necessarily must look to Williams less just because Keenan Allen is back on the team.

The thing about Allen is that while he had that ridiculous first half of 2015 with 11 targets/game over the other 30 games he has played he has averaged 7.8 targets/game.  That seems like a more realistic expectation for this season than what happened in 2015.

But I am not really in the projections business, I have no problem deferring to SSND.

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12 minutes ago, beerbuff said:

I wouldn't call it unreasonable but one of two things would need to happen. A. Keenan gets hurt again or B. It takes Williams longer than expected to get on the field. Even with Williams coming back Tyrell could shut him out if he is performing well. In my draft last weekend I picked him up as my WR5 and so am pretty happy with his value but I would not draft him as a WR2 even if you think he is going to finish there.

Allen?

Sorry for the confusion on my part, in no way shape or form am I advocating drafting T.Williams as a #2 WR. I just think he has that upside, I love him as a #4 or 5 WR.

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4 minutes ago, Chaka said:
18 minutes ago, beerbuff said:

ldn't call it unreasonable but one of two things would need to happen. A. Keenan gets hurt again or B. It takes Williams longer than expected to get on the field. Even with Williams coming back Tyrell could shut him out if he is performing well. In my draft last weekend I picked him up as my WR5 and so am pretty happy with his value but I would not draft him as a WR2 even if you think he is going to finish there.

Allen?

I'm sure he is talking about Mike Williams. I did not think the Chargers needed to address WR in the draft and was very surprised they took MW in the first round. I assume a big part of their reasoning was that Allen injuries have hurt the offense the past few years, but I also have to assume that it reflected their overall view of their WR group, including Tyrell. For example, if they were completely comfortable with Tyrell as a long term starter, they could have used a later pick (or none) on WR and used their first rounder on something more valuable (read: defense).

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5 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I'm sure he is talking about Mike Williams. I did not think the Chargers needed to address WR in the draft and was very surprised they took MW in the first round. I assume a big part of their reasoning was that Allen injuries have hurt the offense the past few years, but I also have to assume that it reflected their overall view of their WR group, including Tyrell. For example, if they were completely comfortable with Tyrell as a long term starter, they could have used a later pick (or none) on WR and used their first rounder on something more valuable (read: defense).

I have kind of written Mike Williams for this season. He has missed so much time it is difficult to envision him doing much in 2017, if he even plays which, and please correct me if I'm wrong, I don't think is guaranteed yet.

I am not terribly surprised they drafted him however, with or without Allen's injuries a potential game changer at the position will help them a ton. I do not consider it an indictment of T.Williams either as I don't really see him as a true NFL #1 WR. I think he can finish as a mid/high #2 WR in fantasy but that is not the same as saying he is a top NFL WR.

Edited by Chaka
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9 minutes ago, Chaka said:

You and SSND are probably correct, you both have certainly put more thought into it than I have.  But, presuming Keenan Allen comes back healthy, I think Williams demonstrated that he is clearly the unquestioned #2 WR on the team (IMO he looks much better than Malcom Floyd ever was). I think the division of market share that gets shifted to Allen will come primarily from Gates, Inman, Benjamin and even Gordon (plus a redistribution of the 57 targets that went to the likes of Farrow, Mccluster, Woodhead etc).  Mind you I think Hunter Henry's market share should increase as well but I don't see why Rivers necessarily must look to Williams less just because Keenan Allen is back on the team.

The thing about Allen is that while he had that ridiculous first half of 2015 with 11 targets/game over the other 30 games he has played he has averaged 7.8 targets/game.  That seems like a more realistic expectation for this season than what happened in 2015.

But I am not really in the projections business, I have no problem deferring to SSND.

I'm not really in the projection business either, but it's just a math exercise. As of today, these players should all be expected to have a non-trivial role as targets in the passing game: Allen, Tyrell, Benjamin, Henry, Gates, Gordon, and Oliver. And I don't have Inman or Mike Williams on that list. That is a lot of people to draw targets.

If we consider Allen's floor to be 7.8 targets per game, that suggest projecting him for 125. Now give 120 to the RBs and 130 to the TEs, and you have about 175-200 targets left for Tyrell, Benjamin, Inman, Mike Williams, and any other WRs who get playing time. Tyrell could get 90-100 of those, but it's very tough to see him getting more. He got 119 targets last season, playing as the de facto WR1.

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1 minute ago, Just Win Baby said:

I'm not really in the projection business either, but it's just a math exercise. As of today, these players should all be expected to have a non-trivial role as targets in the passing game: Allen, Tyrell, Benjamin, Henry, Gates, Gordon, and Oliver. And I don't have Inman or Mike Williams on that list. That is a lot of people to draw targets.

If we consider Allen's floor to be 7.8 targets per game, that suggest projecting him for 125. Now give 120 to the RBs and 130 to the TEs, and you have about 175-200 targets left for Tyrell, Benjamin, Inman, Mike Williams, and any other WRs who get playing time. Tyrell could get 90-100 of those, but it's very tough to see him getting more. He got 119 targets last season, playing as the de facto WR1.

I think we disagree about Benjamin, Gates and Oliver (in particular).

Ultimately I think the distribution between Henry and Gates will be the same for total targets but flipped in favor of Henry.

Benjamin in particular I think ends up as the odd man out. He isn't a better deep threat than Tyrell and he isn't better in tight spaces or across the middle than Allen. I am not sure what his role is on the team at this point beyond special teams.

I also think most of what Oliver gets will be at the expense of Gordon (and McCluster and Farrow 27 targets, 16 to Hillman and Woodhead who aren't on the team etc), who despite high catch numbers last year seems miscast in that role (72% catch rate isn't particularly impressive for a RB).

Like I said, you guys are probably right but I like Tyrell this year.

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4 hours ago, Chaka said:

Ultimately I think the distribution between Henry and Gates will be the same for total targets but flipped in favor of Henry.

Agree. Per PFR, TEs combined for 148 of 564 targets (26.2%) for the Chargers in 2016. I expect a similar amount of targets this season, with Henry getting the most.

4 hours ago, Chaka said:

Benjamin in particular I think ends up as the odd man out. He isn't a better deep threat than Tyrell and he isn't better in tight spaces or across the middle than Allen. I am not sure what his role is on the team at this point beyond special teams.

Benjamin had 75 targets last season despite missing 2 games and playing through a PCL injury. But I don't see them giving him less than 50-75 if he is healthy. He is too good, and they are paying him too much.

Benjamin is a much better deep threat than Tyrell, and it's not close. Here is a good Reception Perception article about how good Benjamin is on various routes. Excerpt:

Quote

On his most ran route, Benjamin boasts a 65.7 percent SRVC. That’s pristine execution on the deep pattern, especially considering how frequently he’s asked to run the nine-route. The football community is universally impressed with Martavis Bryant’s ability in the deep game, and Travis Benjamin’s nine-route scores are nearly identical to Bryant’s 2014 output. He’s a deep game artist. Benjamin has a double move in his arsenal that, if he gets you to bite on it, the opposing corner has no chance to stop it. The scouting community frequently talks about the extra gear. Benjamin is one of the rare players in the NFL who possess the next level after the extra gear. His speed advantage simply isn’t fair. One of his other highly represented routes, the post, is another indicator of his artistry in the deep game. On these routes, in order to create pristine separation, the receiver must dip his hips to the outside and then smoothly cut back in-field. Benjamin’s 76.9 percent SRVC illuminates that he does that quite well.

Last season, the Chargers rarely targeted Tyrell on true deep shots, despite his speed/size combo and despite the fact that Rivers was known for doing it with similar speed/size guys in VJax and Floyd. Tyrell only caught 1 pass thrown 41+ yards in the air, compared to 3 for Benjamin, even though Tyrell had 44 more targets on the season. In his 119 targets, Tyrell caught a total of 4 passes thrown 31+ yards in the air. I can't seem to find a source for how many deep targets Tyrell had, but in watching the games they seemed rare.

4 hours ago, Chaka said:

I also think most of what Oliver gets will be at the expense of Gordon (and McCluster and Farrow 27 targets, 16 to Hillman and Woodhead who aren't on the team etc), who despite high catch numbers last year seems miscast in that role (72% catch rate isn't particularly impressive for a RB).

It doesn't really matter who... since Rivers became the starting QB, the Chargers have targeted their RBs an average of 135 times per season (regular season only). Even in the 2014 and 2016 seasons, when Woodhead went out for the season early, RBs averaged 107.5 targets. Last season, despite losing Oliver (Woodhead's backup) in preseason and Woodhead a couple games in, RBs got 107 of 564 targets (19%). I don't see fewer targets for the RBs in 2017.

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4 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

I'm not really in the projection business either, but it's just a math exercise. As of today, these players should all be expected to have a non-trivial role as targets in the passing game: Allen, Tyrell, Benjamin, Henry, Gates, Gordon, and Oliver. And I don't have Inman or Mike Williams on that list. That is a lot of people to draw targets.

If we consider Allen's floor to be 7.8 targets per game, that suggest projecting him for 125. Now give 120 to the RBs and 130 to the TEs, and you have about 175-200 targets left for Tyrell, Benjamin, Inman, Mike Williams, and any other WRs who get playing time. Tyrell could get 90-100 of those, but it's very tough to see him getting more. He got 119 targets last season, playing as the de facto WR1.

I'd say based on history, 200 targets for the WR2-5 to share is about right.  Rivers usually spreads the ball around enough to prevent any of the other receivers from getting over 100 targets.  

Things that will change this are an injury to Allen OR one of the RB's. If one of these occurs, then Tyrell could end up with 120 targets again and probably put up WR2 numbers.  

I love him as my WR4-5.  I wouldn't want to count on him for anything more, despite the history the Chargers have had with injury.  That means nothing as it's a new season.  

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14 minutes ago, jmo87usc said:

despite the history the Chargers have had with injury.  That means nothing as it's a new season.  

Their 1st and 2nd round picks (both projected starters) and their best inside linebacker are all going to miss significant time due to injury already. And we haven't even made it through preseason game 3 yet.

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I don't know about next gen stats and all that but I am willing to amend from "better deep threat" to "better YAC" if need be. If it is neither of those then I need someone to explain to me how T.Williams compiled some of the game logs he did, compared to Benjamin.  The season long and per game YPC numbers look a lot better for T.Williams. So whatever he is doing, I think he should do more of it.

	Player	Pos	Yr	Wk	Tm		Opp			GameResult	  Targ Rec	RecYd Yd/RecTD	
1	Travis Benjamin	wr	2016	1	SD	@	KC	L, 27-33	8	7	32	4.6		0	
2	Travis Benjamin	wr	2016	2	SD		JAX	W, 38-14	6	6	115	19.2	2	
3	Travis Benjamin	wr	2016	3	SD	@	IND	L, 22-26	7	4	82	20.5	0	
4	Travis Benjamin	wr	2016	4	SD		NO	L, 34-35	7	4	48	12.0	0	
5	Travis Benjamin	wr	2016	5	SD	@	OAK	L, 31-34	11	7	117	16.7	0	
6	Travis Benjamin	wr	2016	6	SD		DEN	W, 21-13	5	3	17	5.7		0	
7	Travis Benjamin	wr	2016	7	SD	@	ATL	W, 33-30	5	4	54	13.5	0	
8	Travis Benjamin	wr	2016	8	SD	@	DEN	L, 19-27	9	3	44	14.7	1	
9	Travis Benjamin	wr	2016	9	SD		TEN	W, 43-35	1	1	5	5.0		0	
10	Travis Benjamin	wr	2016	12	SD	@	HOU	W, 21-13	2	1	8	8.0		0	
11	Travis Benjamin	wr	2016	13	SD		TB	L, 21-28	4	2	24	12.0	0	
12	Travis Benjamin	wr	2016	15	SD		OAK	L, 16-19	3	2	56	28.0	1	
13	Travis Benjamin	wr	2016	16	SD	@	CLE	L, 17-20	4	3	75	25.0	0	
	Player			Pos	Yr		Wk	Tm		Opp	GameResult	Targ Rec RecYd	Yd/Rec TD	
1	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	1	SD	@	KC	L, 27-33	5	2	71	35.5	0	
2	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	2	SD		JAX	W, 38-14	6	3	61	20.3	1	
3	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	3	SD	@	IND	L, 22-26	9	6	69	11.5	0	
4	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	4	SD		NO	L, 34-35	8	5	40	8.0		0	
5	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	5	SD	@	OAK	L, 31-34	6	5	117	23.4	1	
6	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	6	SD		DEN	W, 21-13	3	3	28	9.3		0	
7	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	7	SD	@	ATL	W, 33-30	10	7	140	20.0	0	
8	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	8	SD	@	DEN	L, 19-27	6	1	4	4.0		0	
9	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	9	SD		TEN	W, 43-35	7	6	65	10.8	1	
10	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	10	SD		MIA	L, 24-31	11	5	125	25.0	1	
11	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	12	SD	@	HOU	W, 21-13	14	8	70	8.8		1	
12	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	13	SD		TB	L, 21-28	4	2	47	23.5	1	
13	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	14	SD	@	CAR	L, 16-28	5	2	68	34.0	0	
14	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	15	SD		OAK	L, 16-19	9	4	20	5.0		0	
15	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	16	SD	@	CLE	L, 17-20	9	4	64	16.0	1	
16	Tyrell Williams	wr	2016	17	SD		KC	L, 27-37	7	6	70	11.7	0	

Again, I have no problem being wrong about anything I am talking about with T.Williams.

Edited by Chaka
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31 minutes ago, Gr00vus said:

Their 1st and 2nd round picks (both projected starters) and their best inside linebacker are all going to miss significant time due to injury already. And we haven't even made it through preseason game 3 yet.

And last year's 3rd round pick (a needed OL) is suspended for 4 games for PEDs. (And wasn't looking particularly good, anyway.)

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2 minutes ago, Chaka said:

I don't know about next gen stats and all that but I am willing to amend from "better deep threat" to "better YAC" if need be. If it is neither of those then I need someone to explain to me how T.Williams compiled some of the game logs he did, compared to Benjamin.  The season long and per game YPC numbers look a lot better for T.Williams. So whatever he is doing, I think he should do more of it.

Here is some data that generally shows a difference:

  • Average depth of target: Benjamin 13.3, Williams 12.8
  • Target distance: Benjamin 12.4, Williams 11.7 (other data below from same links)
  • Average air yards per target: Benjamin 5.6, Williams 5.2
  • Average YAC per target: Benjamin 3.4, Williams 3.7
  • Average air yards per reception: Benjamin 9.0, Williams 9.0
  • Average YAC per reception: Benjamin 5.4, Williams 6.4

The differences are generally small, though they tend to favor Benjamin as a getting more of his yards in the air and having greater depth on his targets. And, again, Benjamin played through a PCL injury last season, which limited his ability to go deep. I put more stock in the description of his route tree when healthy the previous season that I linked earlier than to his performance last season.

This was a tangent that probably doesn't really matter too much. The real question is whether or not Benjamin will get enough targets to impact the targets for others, or will instead have a significantly reduced role. I think it will be the former. :shrug: 

Now, if we are talking 2018, I think Benjamin is a virtual lock to be gone. Gates will definitely be gone, and Inman could be gone, too. Unfortunately for Tyrell, Mike Williams may be healthy by then and could surpass him.

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1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Here is some data that generally shows a difference:

  • Average depth of target: Benjamin 13.3, Williams 12.8
  • Target distance: Benjamin 12.4, Williams 11.7 (other data below from same links)
  • Average air yards per target: Benjamin 5.6, Williams 5.2
  • Average YAC per target: Benjamin 3.4, Williams 3.7
  • Average air yards per reception: Benjamin 9.0, Williams 9.0
  • Average YAC per reception: Benjamin 5.4, Williams 6.4

The differences are generally small, though they tend to favor Benjamin as a getting more of his yards in the air and having greater depth on his targets. And, again, Benjamin played through a PCL injury last season, which limited his ability to go deep. I put more stock in the description of his route tree when healthy the previous season that I linked earlier than to his performance last season.

This was a tangent that probably doesn't really matter too much. The real question is whether or not Benjamin will get enough targets to impact the targets for others, or will instead have a significantly reduced role. I think it will be the former. :shrug: 

Now, if we are talking 2018, I think Benjamin is a virtual lock to be gone. Gates will definitely be gone, and Inman could be gone, too. Unfortunately for Tyrell, Mike Williams may be healthy by then and could surpass him.

Again, those are fancy next-gen stats and I am just not sure how to interpret them. As I said from the beginning, you and SSND are probably right and I wasn't really basing my feeling about T.Williams based upon any kind of deep research.  

The simple stats say T.Williams had a 15.3 YPC on 69 catches while Benjamin had a 14.4 on 22 fewer catches. That may not hold up this season but all I can say is I think it is probably more difficult to maintain a higher YPC on more catches.

Also I have never really been a believer in Benjamin, most guys like him end up as special teams/gadget players and I haven't seen anything from Benjamin to convince me he is one of the exceptions.  My money is on him and Inman being odd men out.

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7 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

I'm not really in the projection business either, but it's just a math exercise. As of today, these players should all be expected to have a non-trivial role as targets in the passing game: Allen, Tyrell, Benjamin, Henry, Gates, Gordon, and Oliver. And I don't have Inman or Mike Williams on that list. That is a lot of people to draw targets.

If we consider Allen's floor to be 7.8 targets per game, that suggest projecting him for 125. Now give 120 to the RBs and 130 to the TEs, and you have about 175-200 targets left for Tyrell, Benjamin, Inman, Mike Williams, and any other WRs who get playing time. Tyrell could get 90-100 of those, but it's very tough to see him getting more. He got 119 targets last season, playing as the de facto WR1.

Reasonable numbers but I need to point out that 120 targets to RBs would represent close to the high water mark for a Wisenhunt coached offense.  I think his offenses average something like 90 targets to RBs.  I only did a quick scan on PFR and didn't delve into players that don't have a position assigned so I may have sold it short by a few receptions but I think his "best" season throwing the ball to RBs was 2013 with the Chargers at 133 targets (Woodhead 88, Matthews 33, Ronnie Brown 8 & Le'Ron McClain 4). Maybe he will approach that again but I personally don't see a Danny Woodhead on the roster and think the O/U should be closer to 100.

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Honestly, I haven't seen T. Williams much. My biggest question is: was last season simply about opportunity and being the next guy up on a volume offense, or does the guy have talent? Stats only tell me so much, especially since he's only played for one season really. Does the guy get open? Does he run good routes? Does he have good hands? Can he get off the line? Etc. 

Yes, draft position matters some, GM intentions matter some, offensive style definitely matters and measurable matter.

But above all of those, I think that availability and talent matters. Keenan Allen's and Mike William's draft position, talent and measurable matter, but of they're not on the field, it doesn't matter one bit. T. Benjamin can have speed and some nice advanced stats, but if he runs poor routes, drops passes or doesn't get open because the basic talent of being a WR isn't there, then it doesn't matter.

So does T. Williams have natural WR talent, or was last year all about being the last man standing? That's the difference between a guy who will be limited on his potential targets and a guy who could have nice upside regardless of the guys around him.

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14 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

Honestly, I haven't seen T. Williams much. My biggest question is: was last season simply about opportunity and being the next guy up on a volume offense, or does the guy have talent? Stats only tell me so much, especially since he's only played for one season really. Does the guy get open? Does he run good routes? Does he have good hands? Can he get off the line? Etc. 

Yes, draft position matters some, GM intentions matter some, offensive style definitely matters and measurable matter.

But above all of those, I think that availability and talent matters. Keenan Allen's and Mike William's draft position, talent and measurable matter, but of they're not on the field, it doesn't matter one bit. T. Benjamin can have speed and some nice advanced stats, but if he runs poor routes, drops passes or doesn't get open because the basic talent of being a WR isn't there, then it doesn't matter.

So does T. Williams have natural WR talent, or was last year all about being the last man standing? That's the difference between a guy who will be limited on his potential targets and a guy who could have nice upside regardless of the guys around him.

6-3, 204.  4.48 40. 82nd percentile SPARQ athlete. So physically, he's one of the most gifted receivers in the league. Matt Harmon's Reception Perception (available at The Fantasy Footballers website) indicates Tyrell is good at getting separation in man coverage and among the league's best at getting separation in zone coverage. His weakness was contested catches (which is surprising given his size and leaping ability) and his strength was getting the ball in space and running after the catch. 

 

Edited by Ilov80s
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20 minutes ago, GroveDiesel said:

Honestly, I haven't seen T. Williams much. My biggest question is: was last season simply about opportunity and being the next guy up on a volume offense, or does the guy have talent? Stats only tell me so much, especially since he's only played for one season really. Does the guy get open? Does he run good routes? Does he have good hands? Can he get off the line? Etc. 

Yes, draft position matters some, GM intentions matter some, offensive style definitely matters and measurable matter.

But above all of those, I think that availability and talent matters. Keenan Allen's and Mike William's draft position, talent and measurable matter, but of they're not on the field, it doesn't matter one bit. T. Benjamin can have speed and some nice advanced stats, but if he runs poor routes, drops passes or doesn't get open because the basic talent of being a WR isn't there, then it doesn't matter.

So does T. Williams have natural WR talent, or was last year all about being the last man standing? That's the difference between a guy who will be limited on his potential targets and a guy who could have nice upside regardless of the guys around him.

 

I'm a Ty Williams owner, so I am biased - take that in mind with the comments below.

 

The guy had tremendous measurables.  6'-3" 205-210 lbs 4.43 40 40" vertical 6.5 3 cone

He has a legit second gear, willing to catch in traffic, good hands, tracks well over his shoulder, good body positioning and control, willing blocker and a pretty good stalker.

 

His downside is that he came in so raw.  Played at Western Oregon where they clearly did not develop him but just let his size and athleticism do all the work.  So he had a huge learning curve going into the NFL.  Had trouble adjusting routes early on and running crisp routes - which pissed off Rivers.  Footwork needed a lot of work.  Definitely not used to the NFL level CBs.

 

So he has had a lot of work to do to catch up on the technical end of being a WR.  That said, he's intelligent and a hard worker so there is a strong possibility that he can catch up.  He's young.  

 

This will be his third year.  Stuff should really start sticking with him.  If he gets the technical end down he has everything else in place to be a legit NFL WR1.  Personally I'm betting he gets it done.  I like what I've seen even though there have been some bumps in the road.  I see a lot more upside than I do in a guy like Benjamin who has had every chance to move up the ranks but has never seized his opportunity.  But he could end up one of those great athletes who just never turn the corner and is just another piece of a solid passing game rather than a go-to guy.  This should be a very telling year for him in his development.

 

.

 

 

Edited by Bronco Billy
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I am of the mind that Tyrell Williams is their best receiver and will be their #1 regardless of Allen's health.  Mike Williams may eventually surpass him but if Mike Williams starts the season on PUP I would be surprised if he caught more than 30 passes this year.

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Tyrell's ceiling is SD's WR1 this year.......He needs Rivers to trust him because Rivers will flat out ignore him most of the game and force it to other players if he doesn't. That's my only fear. I know Tyrell will be open a lot but he can't score FF points if Rivers doesn't look his way.......

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15 hours ago, Chaka said:

The simple stats say T.Williams had a 15.3 YPC on 69 catches while Benjamin had a 14.4 on 22 fewer catches. That may not hold up this season but all I can say is I think it is probably more difficult to maintain a higher YPC on more catches.

Yes, I agree with the bolded. That is a different statement than saying Williams is a better deep threat than Benjamin. Again, the real issue is that Benjamin will get non-trivial targets, which will cap how many targets are available to Williams. At this point, I will just agree to disagree on Benjamin.

15 hours ago, Chaka said:

Reasonable numbers but I need to point out that 120 targets to RBs would represent close to the high water mark for a Wisenhunt coached offense.  I think his offenses average something like 90 targets to RBs.  I only did a quick scan on PFR and didn't delve into players that don't have a position assigned so I may have sold it short by a few receptions but I think his "best" season throwing the ball to RBs was 2013 with the Chargers at 133 targets (Woodhead 88, Matthews 33, Ronnie Brown 8 & Le'Ron McClain 4). Maybe he will approach that again but I personally don't see a Danny Woodhead on the roster and think the O/U should be closer to 100.

IMO the most relevant data point for Whisenhunt is last season, since he had most of the same players he will have this season and lost Woodhead very early. They still targeted the RBs on 19% of their targets, with no real third down/passing down specialist. Oliver isn't Woodhead, but he is a better receiving back than they had last season, so it's hard to envision a lower percentage of RB targets this year.

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1 minute ago, Just Win Baby said:

Yes, I agree with the bolded. That is a different statement than saying Williams is a better deep threat than Benjamin. Again, the real issue is that Benjamin will get non-trivial targets, which will cap how many targets are available to Williams. At this point, I will just agree to disagree on Benjamin.

IMO the most relevant data point for Whisenhunt is last season, since he had most of the same players he will have this season and lost Woodhead very early. They still targeted the RBs on 19% of their targets, with no real third down/passing down specialist. Oliver isn't Woodhead, but he is a better receiving back than they had last season, so it's hard to envision a lower percentage of RB targets this year.

I see that but with Allen coming back and being all over the short to mid range targets it is not hard for me to envision that drop in RB targets.

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Curious that through 3 preseason games, the Chargers have had 17 players catch at least 1 pass, but Tyrell is not one of them. He didn't play yesterday due to a groin injury; my impression is they are just being cautious, so hopefully nothing serious.

Rivers has completed 11 of 12 passes in preseason. His one incompletion was in preseason game 1 and was targeted at Tyrell. His other targets were all completions: Allen (4), Gates (2), Benjamin (2), Henry (1), Oliver (1), Davis (1).

This sample size is not meaningful or predictive. But it certainly looks like Allen will continue to be targeted the most, with TEs the second most. It is also worth noting given some of the conversation in this thread that Benjamin looks great -- he has 3/134/2 in preseason, including a 45 yard TD from Rivers and a 74 yard TD from Clemens.

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T.Williams is slow playing in preseason as a personal favor to me. Week one rolls around he's gonna unleash fluffy duckies and bunnies of fantasy happiness as a reward to all his believers.

Not too late to invest in Championship winning shares of T.Williams.

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On 8/25/2017 at 9:40 AM, Milkman said:

Tyrell's ceiling is SD's WR1 this year.......He needs Rivers to trust him because Rivers will flat out ignore him most of the game and force it to other players if he doesn't. That's my only fear. I know Tyrell will be open a lot but he can't score FF points if Rivers doesn't look his way.......

There are at least 3 guys I'd rather have going in Tyrell's neighboorhood. Garcon, Crowder and Parker all figure to be their team's #1 in targets while Williams is #2 at best. With those TEs, Benjamin and Inman/Williams, Rivers #2 WR is not going to sniff the 120 targets he got last year. 

Yes Crowder.

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14 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

There are at least 3 guys I'd rather have going in Tyrell's neighboorhood. Garcon, Crowder and Parker all figure to be their team's #1 in targets while Williams is #2 at best. With those TEs, Benjamin and Inman/Williams, Rivers #2 WR is not going to sniff the 120 targets he got last year. 

Yes Crowder.

That's a pretty unfair comparison to the guys you mentioned.  ADP's:

Crowder 6.09
Parker 7.08
Garcon  8.02

T WIlliams:  9.09

I get you're trying to prove a point, and bunching those 4 together does that, but c'mon.  I love Tyrell this year and I would still take those other 3 WR's over him too.  So what?

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16 minutes ago, ourmanflint said:

There are at least 3 guys I'd rather have going in Tyrell's neighboorhood. Garcon, Crowder and Parker all figure to be their team's #1 in targets while Williams is #2 at best. With those TEs, Benjamin and Inman/Williams, Rivers #2 WR is not going to sniff the 120 targets he got last year. 

Yes Crowder.

Which ADP has them going that close together? I only play in one redraft league, but in that league, Crowder and Garcon went 4 rounds before Williams, and Parker went 2.5 round before Williams. 

Edited by jtd13
Daemon beat me to it.
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17 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

Which ADP has them going that close together? I only play in one redraft league, but in that league, Crowder and Garcon went 4 rounds before Williams, and Parker went 2.5 round before Williams. 

Haha ya, we posted those replies at the exact same times.

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22 hours ago, Just Win Baby said:

Curious that through 3 preseason games, the Chargers have had 17 players catch at least 1 pass, but Tyrell is not one of them. He didn't play yesterday due to a groin injury; my impression is they are just being cautious, so hopefully nothing serious.

Rivers has completed 11 of 12 passes in preseason. His one incompletion was in preseason game 1 and was targeted at Tyrell. His other targets were all completions: Allen (4), Gates (2), Benjamin (2), Henry (1), Oliver (1), Davis (1).

This sample size is not meaningful or predictive. But it certainly looks like Allen will continue to be targeted the most, with TEs the second most. It is also worth noting given some of the conversation in this thread that Benjamin looks great -- he has 3/134/2 in preseason, including a 45 yard TD from Rivers and a 74 yard TD from Clemens.

:goodposting: Think people are really discounting a healthy Benjamin and the impact he'll have on Tyrell's #s.

 I think it'll take injuries again for him to be fantasy option.

 

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7 minutes ago, WhatRox said:

How big of an impact does Mike Williams arrival have on Tyrell?

I have no factual information to back this up but if I'm the coach I keep tyrell and mike on the outside and play Allen in the slot.  With Henry and gates in the mix too and rotate Benjamin in and out for some deep shots man.  How do you defend that?

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6 minutes ago, WhatRox said:

How big of an impact does Mike Williams arrival have on Tyrell?

Who knows.  He is borderline dropable now.  Tried to nab Kendal Wright and drop him during waivers.  Guy has talent but probably too many mouths to feed now.  Very boom/bust from WR3/Flex play from here on in.

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Through the first 4 weeks he had

16 catches

24 targets

238 yards

1 touchdown

almost identical to his first 4 games of 2016

16 catches

28 targets

241 yards

1 touchdown

And on pace for 64/96/952/4 compared with 69/119/1059/7 last year.   

Last week he stumbled with 1 catch for 22 vs the giants, but otherwise he's looked like a decent wr3.  I'm not ready to drop him because he didn't get a lot of work against the giants.  I'm not going to consider him a wr2 either unless he starts to heat up again.  Against a high scoring offense ill probably get him in my lineup. 

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26 minutes ago, rickyg said:

I have no factual information to back this up but if I'm the coach I keep tyrell and mike on the outside and play Allen in the slot.  With Henry and gates in the mix too and rotate Benjamin in and out for some deep shots man.  How do you defend that?

You overwhelm the Chargers lousy offensive line with pressure.

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Keenan Allen will get injured.....he always does. Also Mike Williams is a rookie, he didn't play in the pre-season. Rivers likes passing to players he has a connection with....Look at how long it has taken him to start passing to Hunter Henry. Mike Williams also has a neck issue and he could go down at any time, he probably should have elected to have surgery to fix his injury.

Anyway.....Tyrell Williams is a stud. I watched the Chargers vs Giants game and there were multiple times he was open deep and Rivers just didn't see him. Rivers watches game tape....he'll make sure to hit Tyrell this weekend against the Raiders. I expect a good game for Tyrell 80-100 yards a TD

Edited by thehoch
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24 minutes ago, thehoch said:

Keenan Allen will get injured.....he always does. Also Mike Williams is a rookie, he didn't play in the pre-season. Rivers likes passing to players he has a connection with....Look at how long it has taken him to start passing to Hunter Henry. Mike Williams also has a neck issue and he could go down at any time, he probably should have elected to have surgery to fix his injury.

This seems like a lot of conjecture to me.

Henry had a TE1 season in his rookie season with Rivers. This year started slow because of gameplan issues, Henry just wasn't running routes.

Allen has got hurt in the past but the Kidney was a fluke injury and the ACL seems to look good this year.

Yes Mike Williams could go down at any time, but so could Williams, or anyone for that matter.

Tyrell is a good player with a lot of talent but its hard to know how they will use guys going forward.

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I realize that editing out great plays from a sample size can skew things, but the vast majority of Tyrell's fantasy production came on one play - the 75-yard TD against the Eagles.  Without that play, his numbers are much more pedestrian.  Tyrell feels like what Benjamin and Inman were last year - likely low target share but could catch a deep bomb and wind up with a 100 yard day.  Just impossible to predict which day.

I think the one thing in Tyrell's favor could be that the coaching staff's game plan in the first quarter of the season was pretty fairly maligned from a lot of corners, much like with Henry's lack of target share.  So, change could be in the offing, but it seems there are still a ton of mouths to feed either way.

One thing I'm looking at is Tyrell's future as I did keep him in a keeper league this year.  As an RFA, there's probably a good chance he's back in SD and stuck behind the same receiving/TE cohort, as another team would have to probably relinquish a draft pick to sign him.

Edited by rschroeder1
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1 hour ago, Jon F. said:

This seems like a lot of conjecture to me.

Henry had a TE1 season in his rookie season with Rivers. This year started slow because of gameplan issues, Henry just wasn't running routes.

Allen has got hurt in the past but the Kidney was a fluke injury and the ACL seems to look good this year.

Yes Mike Williams could go down at any time, but so could Williams, or anyone for that matter.

Tyrell is a good player with a lot of talent but its hard to know how they will use guys going forward.

I've been watching the Chargers, almost every game, for 30 years......I will remember your post. When Allen in on the IR, Mike Williams is done for the season because of his neck injury, and Tyrell Williams is the #1 receiver for the team, I'll be back to say I told you so. It's gonna happen and it's gonna happen soon. Believe me, I've seen it over and over again.

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17 minutes ago, thehoch said:

I've been watching the Chargers, almost every game, for 30 years......I will remember your post. When Allen in on the IR, Mike Williams is done for the season because of his neck injury, and Tyrell Williams is the #1 receiver for the team, I'll be back to say I told you so. It's gonna happen and it's gonna happen soon. Believe me, I've seen it over and over again.

Lol.  This is too funny.  I like your enthusiasm, man!  

While you're at it though, can you tell me who will win the World Series this year so I can bet on it and win $100mm?

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1 hour ago, rickyg said:

Lol.  This is too funny.  I like your enthusiasm, man!  

While you're at it though, can you tell me who will win the World Series this year so I can bet on it and win $100mm?

Unless he's watched every baseball game for 30 years, I think you're looking at a losing proposition. Gotta find something in his wheelhouse. I'm sure there's prop bets in Vegas that'll let you take up one of his foreshadows though :shrug:

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HA!!! I wish it wasn't true......Ask any Charger fan, actually ex-Charger fans now, like me.......We all know how this is going to go down.

Allen will be on the disabled list real soon....Tyrell will get his and I expect 100 yards and a TD against the Raiders this weekend. I'll be back to say I told you so....I don't need no crystal ball, so it is written.

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1 hour ago, thehoch said:

HA!!! I wish it wasn't true......Ask any Charger fan, actually ex-Charger fans now, like me.......We all know how this is going to go down.

Allen will be on the disabled list real soon....Tyrell will get his and I expect 100 yards and a TD against the Raiders this weekend. I'll be back to say I told you so....I don't need no crystal ball, so it is written.

I don't think your Allen will get hurt is correct but I'm hoping as a Odell owner who also has AJ green on bye that your right about tyrell this week

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