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WR Tyrell Williams, DET - 9.22.21 - Concussion - Unlikely To Play Week 3 (1 Viewer)

thehoch said:
Keenan Allen will get injured.....he always does. Also Mike Williams is a rookie, he didn't play in the pre-season. Rivers likes passing to players he has a connection with....Look at how long it has taken him to start passing to Hunter Henry. Mike Williams also has a neck issue and he could go down at any time, he probably should have elected to have surgery to fix his injury.

Anyway.....Tyrell Williams is a stud. I watched the Chargers vs Giants game and there were multiple times he was open deep and Rivers just didn't see him. Rivers watches game tape....he'll make sure to hit Tyrell this weekend against the Raiders. I expect a good game for Tyrell 80-100 yards a TD
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thehoch said:
I've been watching the Chargers, almost every game, for 30 years......I will remember your post. When Allen in on the IR, Mike Williams is done for the season because of his neck injury, and Tyrell Williams is the #1 receiver for the team, I'll be back to say I told you so. It's gonna happen and it's gonna happen soon. Believe me, I've seen it over and over again.
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thehoch said:
HA!!! I wish it wasn't true......Ask any Charger fan, actually ex-Charger fans now, like me.......We all know how this is going to go down.

Allen will be on the disabled list real soon....Tyrell will get his and I expect 100 yards and a TD against the Raiders this weekend. I'll be back to say I told you so....I don't need no crystal ball, so it is written.
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thehoch said:
Look it's gonna happen. Allen is going down. I don't wish injury on anyone but this guy is made of glass.
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thehoch said:
I call my shot. I got a pretty darn good record over the years. I'll be back when Tyrell is the #1 receiver, Keenan is on DL or IR, and Mike Williams is either re-injured or not involved much in games.
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thehoch said:
Tell you what.....If I'm right why don't you take the rest of the season off. If I'm wrong, I won't be back next season. How's that tough guy?
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One of my favorite called shots of 2017.

 
BobbyLayne said:
One of my favorite called shots of 2017.
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I am SHOCKED Keenan made it through the season. SHOCKED! With that said I do recall seeing him carried out on a cart last week just as the fantasy championship game is upon us. They are claiming he's okay.......OKAY! You start him! Good memory though.....that prediction really must have haunted you every night and whispered in your panties.

 
When did it become so difficult for people to admit they were wrong about something?

Here, watch.

I was pretty strongly on board the T.Williams train this offseason.  I felt that he would finish as a WR#2 and said so in here several times.  Well, I was wrong. Currently he is a WR#6 in my league. So, again, I WAS WRONG!

Didn't hurt a bit to say that.

 
But all you suckers who said Travis Benjamin would finish higher than T.Williams YOU WERE WRONG!!! 

In my league (12 team PPR) T.Williams has 92 points to Benjamin's pathetic 90 points!

YOU SUCK AND I RULE!!!!

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAAHXPLOODDEEEEEEEEWE!!!@1212@1!22!!

 
Chaka said:
When did it become so difficult for people to admit they were wrong about something?

Here, watch.

I was pretty strongly on board the T.Williams train this offseason.  I felt that he would finish as a WR#2 and said so in here several times.  Well, I was wrong. Currently he is a WR#6 in my league. So, again, I WAS WRONG!

Didn't hurt a bit to say that.
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I’m right there with you.  I thought he was a FF WR2 and an intregral part of what I thouggt was a very strong WR corps.  He was the epitome of what happened to that entire group for me.  Major disappointment and my bad for buying in on him.

 
Yep, I missed in Tyrell this year. He did have the opportunity I thought he'd have with the amount of playing time he received. But ultimately his lack of finish and consistency were more damning than I expected. He seemed to miss more plays for the Chargers then he made. 

 
Idk. I bought in the midst of last year when he was going off. I still really think strongly that he can be a WR2. Can use some work on his routes, but he's still fairly young and got a late start to his career getting on the field. He's consistently shown he can get behind defenders. Just don't think SD is the right situation. Lot of mouthes to feed plus a QB that is very dependent on previous chemistry and experience with a receiver plus a coaching staff whose gameplanning is questionable at best.

Redraft, sure I would be mad at myself.

Dyno, I am still fairly confident going forward.

 
I was wrong.....Only reason this dude remembered wasn't because it was on his mind....it's because he has Keenan or needs a WR for this week and went to check on Williams and found my prediction. I am shocked Keenan stayed healthy....honestly. Not sure how he did it. Dude doesn't hold up....maybe he really trained in the off-season for once. Williams is a beast just was criminally under-used.......but I think he has big game this weekend against the Jets.....especially with Allen banged up and Henry done for the season.

 
Chaka said:
But all you suckers who said Travis Benjamin would finish higher than T.Williams YOU WERE WRONG!!!
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I don't recall anyone actually saying this. I do recall people saying that Benjamin would get enough targets to limit Tyrell's value unless there were significant injuries. And that was 100% correct.

 
Is the general consensus that the Chargers will let him walk and that will open up more opportunities for Mike Williams next season? 

 
skillz said:
Is the general consensus that the Chargers will let him walk and that will open up more opportunities for Mike Williams next season? 
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Depends what other teams offer tyrell...if the chargers can resign him for cheap they probably do

 
Milkman said:
SD just needs to let him walk in FA. His talents are being wasted in SD. 

Their missing the playoffs again though.......lol
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Yeah, I am not so sure he would thrive in a different situation.  I think his landing spot would be hugely important, he could easily turn out to be another Alvin Harper.

 
skillz said:
Is the general consensus that the Chargers will let him walk and that will open up more opportunities for Mike Williams next season? 
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No. I think there is very little chance of that.

I expect the team will release Benjamin since he has not performed well enough to justify his contract. He is due for a 2018 cap hit of $7M, but the team can release him with just $2.5M in dead 2018 cap money. The team traded Inman midseason, so if Benjamin is released, the team is left with Allen, Mike Williams, and Tyrell as their only quality WRs. If they also let Tyrell walk, they will be way too thin at that position, especially considering the injury histories of Allen and MW. I also expect Gates to retire, so that is another target lost.

Tyrell is a RFA, so the Chargers control him this offseason. I wouldn't be surprised for them to sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal, locking him in behind Allen, Mike Williams, Henry, and the RBs in the target pecking order.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Tyrell is a RFA, so the Chargers control him this offseason. I wouldn't be surprised for them to sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal, locking him in behind Allen, Mike Williams, Henry, and the RBs in the target pecking order.
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What makes you think Tyrell doesn't think he can contribute more than a #3 WR? He is still fairly young and still developing, already with a 1,000 yard season on his belt. He can see the writing on the wall with the MW pick that he is the odd man out. What makes you think he'll settle for a #3 job?

 
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ShamrockPride said:
What makes you think Tyrell doesn't think he can contribute more than a #3 WR? He is still fairly young and still developing, already with a 1,000 yard season on his belt. He can see the writing on the wall with the MW pick that he is the odd man out. What makes you think he'll settle for a #3 job?
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He is a Restricted Free Agent. It is up to the Chargers, not Tyrell. You understand that, right?

 
Hankmoody said:
Just Win Baby said:
He is a Restricted Free Agent. It is up to the Chargers, not Tyrell. You understand that, right?
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He's probably challenging your 2-3 year contract commment.  RFA tenders are only 1 year deals, so they can't "lock him in" for longer.
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Maybe so. I may have overestimated how many years the Chargers would want to commit to Tyrell given his consistently inconsistent performance. It is worth noting that some RFAs sign multi-year deals (e.g., Kiko Alonso).

 
Just Win Baby said:
Hankmoody said:
Just Win Baby said:
He is a Restricted Free Agent. It is up to the Chargers, not Tyrell. You understand that, right?
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He's probably challenging your 2-3 year contract commment.  RFA tenders are only 1 year deals, so they can't "lock him in" for longer.
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Maybe so. I may have overestimated how many years the Chargers would want to commit to Tyrell given his consistently inconsistent performance. It is worth noting that some RFAs sign multi-year deals (e.g., Kiko Alonso).
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It's not just about how many years the Chargers want to commit to him though, he gets a vote in that.  He can refuse their longer deals and just sit on the one year tender.  They can't "lock him in for 2-3 more years" as you said.

 
Hankmoody said:
Just Win Baby said:
Hankmoody said:
Just Win Baby said:
He is a Restricted Free Agent. It is up to the Chargers, not Tyrell. You understand that, right?
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He's probably challenging your 2-3 year contract commment.  RFA tenders are only 1 year deals, so they can't "lock him in" for longer.
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Maybe so. I may have overestimated how many years the Chargers would want to commit to Tyrell given his consistently inconsistent performance. It is worth noting that some RFAs sign multi-year deals (e.g., Kiko Alonso).
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It's not just about how many years the Chargers want to commit to him though, he gets a vote in that.  He can refuse their longer deals and just sit on the one year tender.  They can't "lock him in for 2-3 more years" as you said.
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I said "I wouldn't be surprised for them to sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal, locking him in behind Allen, Mike Williams, Henry, and the RBs in the target pecking order." Yes, I agree that he has a choice beyond one year, but, if he signs beyond one year, he is locked in as I stated.

Of course, if you are Tyrell, and your choice is a 1 year deal for $2.5M, 2 year deal for $5.5M, or 3 year deal for $8M, what do you prefer? I'm sure if he walks after 2018, he will get signed, but for how much, especially if he plays 2018 behind Allen, Mike W, Henry, and the RBs in the target pecking order? He will be 27, not old but also a guy who probably will not have a lot to show for 4 years in the NFL.

He may very well gamble on himself in that situation. And if he does, he could win, lose, or draw.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
I said "I wouldn't be surprised for them to sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal, locking him in behind Allen, Mike Williams, Henry, and the RBs in the target pecking order." Yes, I agree that he has a choice beyond one year, but, if he signs beyond one year, he is locked in as I stated.

Of course, if you are Tyrell, and your choice is a 1 year deal for $2.5M, 2 year deal for $5.5M, or 3 year deal for $8M, what do you prefer? I'm sure if he walks after 2018, he will get signed, but for how much, especially if he plays 2018 behind Allen, Mike W, Henry, and the RBs in the target pecking order? He will be 27, not old but also a guy who probably will not have a lot to show for 4 years in the NFL.

He may very well gamble on himself in that situation. And if he does, he could win, lose, or draw.
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Mohammed sanu at age 26 hit the market having never gotten more than 56/790/5. He got a 5 year deal for 32 million with 14 guaranteed..

Williams has a 69/1059/7 season and in a disappointing year already has more than sanu in his second best year.  The second round rfa tender will be about 2.7 million - the chargers wouldn't be able to keep him with an original round tender. If they want to keep him for 3 years saying we can keep you for 3 million, his agent is going to counter that he can get 15 million in guarantees  just by waiting one year and picking a team with a less crowded depth chart.  Very unlikely he plays out the rfa season and resigns with the chargers. 

 
bostonfred said:
Mohammed sanu at age 26 hit the market having never gotten more than 56/790/5. He got a 5 year deal for 32 million with 14 guaranteed..

Williams has a 69/1059/7 season and in a disappointing year already has more than sanu in his second best year.  The second round rfa tender will be about 2.7 million - the chargers wouldn't be able to keep him with an original round tender. If they want to keep him for 3 years saying we can keep you for 3 million, his agent is going to counter that he can get 15 million in guarantees  just by waiting one year and picking a team with a less crowded depth chart.  Very unlikely he plays out the rfa season and resigns with the chargers. 
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We'll see. I assume you are right that he'll pass on what I threw out earlier, but I'll take the under on 5/32/14 for him in the 2019 offseason, unless he drastically improves his play.

 
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bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
They started 0n4 largely because someone made a terrible decision to cut Josh lambo and go with a totally unproven rookie kicker....but hey troll away
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Lol whatever they have missed the playoffs for like 4 years. Rivers isn't as good as people think but go ahead and defend him if you want. 

 
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I mean maybe it's the coaching staff but Rivers is def not helping the way he just locks on one receiver. 

 
Milkman said:
And how many times do they have to miss the playoffs before you start questioning you elite QB Rivers? @Just Win Baby
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If you think Rivers is the problem with the Chargers, there isn't much point having a conversation about it with you.

Milkman said:
I mean maybe it's the coaching staff but Rivers is def not helping the way he just locks on one receiver. 
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He doesn't lock on one receiver. You have claimed in the past to see Chargers receivers (Tyrell and Ladarius Green, specifically) running wide open all the time without getting the ball from Rivers. That claim is laughable and undermines your credibility. Again, no point debating this with you.

 
Come on @Milkman you can say a lot of things about Philip Rivers but it's bizarre to suggest he hasn't been one of the top QBs in the league for the past decade.

I honestly don't know how that position can be reasonably defended.

 
Rivers is top 10 all time in most qb stats. I don’t know why the team has been so inconsistent for the last 5-6 years. Bad coaching mostly I guess. 

 
I didn't realize how bad PFF graded Tyrell for this season. Out of 199 graded WRs, here are Tyrell's grades:

  • #129 overall
  • #115T receiving
  • #169T run blocking
It must be Rivers' fault. :sarcasm:  

 
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Just Win Baby said:
I didn't realize how bad PFF graded Tyrell for this season. Out of 199 graded WRs, here are Tyrell's grades:

  • #129 overall
  • #115T receiving
  • #169T run blocking
It must be Rivers' fault. :sarcasm:  
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I don't know what PFF puts into all that analysis (my guess is there is a heaping helping of subjectivity in all their grades) but Tyrell finished as the #44 WR in my league. A far cry from my hopes/expectations but certainly a lot better than all that PFF what-not.

 
Chaka said:
Just Win Baby said:
I didn't realize how bad PFF graded Tyrell for this season. Out of 199 graded WRs, here are Tyrell's grades:

  • #129 overall
  • #115T receiving
  • #169T run blocking
It must be Rivers' fault. :sarcasm:  
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I don't know what PFF puts into all that analysis (my guess is there is a heaping helping of subjectivity in all their grades) but Tyrell finished as the #44 WR in my league. A far cry from my hopes/expectations but certainly a lot better than all that PFF what-not.
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Yes, that's very curious, because he's WR42 in Points per Target, and if you set it to a minimum 25 targets to take out sample size skewing he's WR14 on the season in PPT.

 
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Hankmoody said:
Yes, that's very curious, because he's WR42 in Points per Target, and if you set it to a minimum 25 targets to take out sample size skewing he's WR14 on the season in PPT.
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Yeah, I know it's not all about magic football points but I do find it odd.

Seriously, beyond whatever their methodology is for this things what is the gap between the ##115 receiving WR and the #44 receiving WR?

 
Just Win Baby said:
Not happening. He will be with the Chargers next season. 
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Probably, but it's interesting to look at.  If LAC gives him a 1st round tender would another team think he's worth that?  You can roll the dice on a late 1st like who, Anthony Miller?  Christian Kirk?  Or you can make an offer to Tyrell that the LAC find tough to match?  Just how much do you think LAC would be willing to pay the guy?  I don't know their cap situation or strategy, is loading Rivers up with targets worth the opportunity cost elsewhere on the roster?  I think a 2nd round tender would definitely get him offers - hell I'd be happy to see Oakland make one - would LAC be happy to cash him in for that and spend the pick elsewhere?

 
Hankmoody said:
Probably, but it's interesting to look at.  If LAC gives him a 1st round tender would another team think he's worth that?  You can roll the dice on a late 1st like who, Anthony Miller?  Christian Kirk?  Or you can make an offer to Tyrell that the LAC find tough to match?  Just how much do you think LAC would be willing to pay the guy?  I don't know their cap situation or strategy, is loading Rivers up with targets worth the opportunity cost elsewhere on the roster?  I think a 2nd round tender would definitely get him offers - hell I'd be happy to see Oakland make one - would LAC be happy to cash him in for that and spend the pick elsewhere?
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I can't see any scenario where a team gives up a first for him.  To me he looks closer to a modern day Alvin Harper than anything, I don't think he has the ability to make hay without a credible #1 WR opposite him (and an above average QB...and probably a good running game too).  

 
Hankmoody said:
Chaka said:
Just Win Baby said:
I didn't realize how bad PFF graded Tyrell for this season. Out of 199 graded WRs, here are Tyrell's grades:

  • #129 overall
  • #115T receiving
  • #169T run blocking
It must be Rivers' fault. :sarcasm:  
Click to expand...
I don't know what PFF puts into all that analysis (my guess is there is a heaping helping of subjectivity in all their grades) but Tyrell finished as the #44 WR in my league. A far cry from my hopes/expectations but certainly a lot better than all that PFF what-not.
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Yes, that's very curious, because he's WR42 in Points per Target, and if you set it to a minimum 25 targets to take out sample size skewing he's WR14 on the season in PPT.
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You guys know that PFF grades are about real football, not fantasy football, right?

Their process is explained here: PFF PLAYER GRADES

Excerpt:

On every play, a PFF analyst will grade each player on a scale of -2 to +2 according to what he did on the play.

At one end of the scale you have a catastrophic game-ending interception or pick-six from a quarterback, and at the other a perfect deep bomb into a tight window in a critical game situation, with the middle of that scale being 0-graded, or ‘expected’ plays that are neither positive nor negative.

Each game is also graded by a second PFF analyst independent of the first, and those grades are compared by a third, Senior Analyst, who rules on any differences between the two. These grades are verified by the Pro Coach Network, a group of former and current NFL coaches with over 700 combined years of NFL coaching experience, to get them as accurate as they can be.

From there, the grades are normalized to better account for game situation; this ranges from where a player lined up to the dropback depth of the quarterback or the length of time he had the ball in his hand and everything in between. They are finally converted to a 0-100 scale and appear in our Player Grades tool.

...

Each week, grades are subject to change while we run through our extensive review process including All-22 tape runs and coaching audit, so you may notice discrepancies among grades published in earlier articles compared with those in the Player Grades tool until grade lock each week.

It’s important to understand that PFF is not grading talent in these numbers, rather strictly performance on the field. Talented players can have bad games, runs, or even seasons, and often players without nearly as much talent can put together impressive play on the field. We are not necessarily telling you who the best players are. Our rankings are more of a performance evaluation, and a reflection of how efficiently a player made plays in the time he was on the field.

Another key benefit to PFF’s grading system is building a complete picture of a player’s performance. Even watching a game closely can result in something of a mental highlight reel on a player – remembering the few good and bad plays and making an overall judgement based on the balance of those – but it can be the other 40 snaps in the game that are being ignored that held the true key to his performance. Was he gaining a slight edge every one of those snaps, or was he struggling just to maintain parity?

By recording performance on every single snap, we come to a more complete conclusion and evaluation. Just because a player was quiet during the game does not mean he played poorly, and in certain positions it could mean he played very well, but had little to feature on the highlight reel.

...

We aren’t grading players based on the yardage they rack up or the stats they collect. Statistics can be indicative of performance but don’t tell the whole story and can often lie badly. Quarterbacks can throw the ball straight to defenders but if the ball is dropped, you won't see it on the stat sheet. Conversely, they can dump the ball off on a sequence of screen passes and end up with a gaudy looking stat line if those skill position players do enough work after the catch.

PFF grades the play, not its result, so the quarterback that throws the ball to defenders will be downgraded whether the defender catches the ball to notch the interception on the stat sheet or not. No amount of broken tackles and yards after the catch from a bubble screen will earn a quarterback a better grade, even though his passing stats may be getting padded.
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Chaka said:
I can't see any scenario where a team gives up a first for him.  To me he looks closer to a modern day Alvin Harper than anything, I don't think he has the ability to make hay without a credible #1 WR opposite him (and an above average QB...and probably a good running game too).  
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Yes.  I really like this comparison.

 
Just Win Baby said:
You guys know that PFF grades are about real football, not fantasy football, right?

Their process is explained here: PFF PLAYER GRADES

Excerpt:
Click to expand...
Yes, I acknowledged as much.

I also recognize that any methodology that tries to grade such things is highly subjective and will necessarily reflect the bias of the graders. 

I also wonder, even if the methodology were foolproof what is the scoring gap between WR 40 and WR 140 in any particular category, i.e. is it statistically significant?

 
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