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NBA is coming up (2 Viewers)

Gooooood Morning Vietnam!!!!

Great to see all of you posting again. Sorry I've been AWOL. I've been pulling a Joe Biden and really unsure whether to jump in again. Opening Day has me totally pumped up and I'm going to see what I can do.

This is the mathbox as I tried to get it going this morning.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--jHEY1dGRM8/TulP6HwA4cI/AAAAAAAAPy4/vEWfz09ft9I/s640/car-smoke.jpg

This is what we will turn it into:

http://wallpapers55.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/smoke-coming-out-blue-car-tires.jpg

LOL!

I'm not going to be ready for today or maybe for a few days, I don't know, but I'm going to start building some history and using some combination of last year's averages to get started. I live in KC so I'm vested in the World Series.

For those of you looking to start DFS on NBA I will just say this: In my opinion, NBA takes more work but is much easier. The 'luck factor' in the NFL is high - a ball going off Edelman's fingertips vs. catching it and racing to the end zone can double or triple a player's weekly points and is far less predictable. Inches here or there, and maybe just 5 plays a game, can determine whether you win or lose. By contrast, in the NBA, if Lebron misses a shot, he's going to get ample more opportunities and guys tend to gravitate towards their averages over time. It's simply more predictable! It takes more time because there are so many games...Daily..and with only 5 guys on the court at a time, injuries affect the other guys more.

If you end up like me, you WILL become an NBA fan and appreciate the game and have a lot of fun in the process (assuming you don't end up calling 1-888-bestoff. :)

 
I can work it to have any 2 of the 3 of Curry, Lebron, and Davis. I was kind of committed to a Curry/Davis showdown, but I have a feeling that Chicago's defense may be breathtakingly bad tonight.

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
I can work it to have any 2 of the 3 of Curry, Lebron, and Davis. I was kind of committed to a Curry/Davis showdown, but I have a feeling that Chicago's defense may be breathtakingly bad tonight.
Click to expand...
Fading Davis without Tyreke (and others) is going to usually be a bad idea and probably is tonight though GS can play some sick D. The same can be said about Lebron without Kyrie w/Snell/Butler playing the sick D. There's a likely blowout with Curry/Davis. It might be the Leandro/Nate showdown. So I think Curry is the fade most likely to rely on his supporting cast. Lebron has the biggest gap at his position on this limited slate. Better value at PG than PF or SF imo.

If Hoiberg is serious about using depth and playing a much faster pace, Rose becomes a good call. Butler's minutes may be down some (wat?).


I want to use Mosgov with Drummond at DK because of the Chicago matchup, but I'd like to know more about his gimpy knee. I like the way Reggie and Drummond are working the pick and roll, just wish Andre had a mid/short range jumper.

Couple basic pointers/reminders that helped me last year. Three point shooters are better on their home courts (over the long run), curry klay korver snell bazemore mirotic barnes iguodala green, damn lotta warriors. Likewise struggling shooting road teams lean on penetrators and bigs on the road, bron, drummond, reggie, kcp?

I'm having fun editing gpp LUs at FD, but my head hurts settling on a cash team at DK.

 
Well, I am here to learn. Thanks to all who will help out with the process. NBA is something new to me, so excited to get going.

 
Not a big fan of NBA DFS as the sharks pretty much have it on lock. The best players pretty much know who to roll with every night and it usually comes down to one or two players being the difference. Just seems like the sharks have the NBA game figured out.

 
As a fan I like football much better then basketball.

As for DFS I like Basketball much better then football.

There are sites out there (even Rotogrinders does it) breaks down or ranks each team opponents FPG per position which is helpful.

I guess the thing I like about Basketball is guys can score points by rebounding, assists, steals.. it's just not all about the scoring.

 
Lebron+AD seems a lot tougher to field than Curry+AD. I want Gasol and Horford with them as I don't feel confident about what Cle will do with their bigs rotation.

 
Chaos, I'm agreeing with you on Lebron + Davis and fading Curry. If Chicago is serious about starting 2 turnstiles in the frontcourt, I can see Cleveland absolutely shredding them. I'm inclined to go with Mozgov at center too, gimpy knee be damned. He might not get a ton of minutes, but if those minutes come against Pau and Mirotic they should be high-value minutes.

Drummond should have some more space, but I'm not exactly sure how much that matters if he can't find a little jumper (as you said).

I agree that the GS game could get out of hand. I would think Davis will get his minutes regardless though. Curry could watch the entire 4th quarter with a towel around his neck.

I personally loathe tiny slates like this, but I'm in full-on "Gimme NBA action" mode so I'm wagering huge money tonight ($4 maybe $5).

 
I played NBA for the first time last season and had a blast. are you guys creating your own projections, or using some other places (RG, etc.) as a starting point? I checked out the sportsguydaily site a bit last year...anybody else building their own models?

 
And this again-

LATEST PLAYER NEWS

October 27 (9:28:35 PM ET)UPDATE: Holiday (rest) will sit out of Tuesday's season opener against the Warriors, Marc J. Spears of Yahoo reports.ANALYSIS: Holiday has been on a minutes restriction all preseason, as the Pelicans want to avoid causing any injury flare ups to the right leg that has given him some problems over his first two seasons with New Orleans. He'll get the night off to start the season and should be considered probable for Wednesday's matchup with the Trail Blazers. Nate Robinson should start in his place at point guard

What good is news at 9:30pm? Cmon

 
I won a little. It was purely a function of dumb luck and the incredibly tiny slate. My decision to fade Gasol and Bazemore was really the only decision I made that differed from the masses.

 
One of my favorite things about Football Guys is the "Interactive Value Charts" for the various daily sites. Does anyone know where to find a similar tool for Fantasy Basketball? I checked out Daily Fantasy Nerd per someones suggestion earlier . . .but they have the "NBA" option greyed out (GRAYED out? is there a right answer to the correct spelling of "gre/ay?) . . . I'm unsure if that is because I did not buy the permium option but just for a free account. I did not see anywhere on the for money options that it would unlock the NBA . . .

Help! Would love to start dipping my toe in the water with basketball, but I know I'll just be throwing my money away if I don't use some tool to help build a strong lineup.

Thanks in advance FBG community!

 
damon1212 said:
One of my favorite things about Football Guys is the "Interactive Value Charts" for the various daily sites. Does anyone know where to find a similar tool for Fantasy Basketball? I checked out Daily Fantasy Nerd per someones suggestion earlier . . .but they have the "NBA" option greyed out (GRAYED out? is there a right answer to the correct spelling of "gre/ay?) . . . I'm unsure if that is because I did not buy the permium option but just for a free account. I did not see anywhere on the for money options that it would unlock the NBA . . .

Help! Would love to start dipping my toe in the water with basketball, but I know I'll just be throwing my money away if I don't use some tool to help build a strong lineup.

Thanks in advance FBG community!
Click to expand...
MikeMan did a really nice website last year with valuations of NBA'ers based on his projections and FD salaries. He also provided subjective information (if so-and-so is out, then bump up so-and-so, etc.). He has said that he will try to fire it back up this year once he has some data on this season. It was free last year with just a request that folks who use it tip him a bit. People will refer to it as the "Mathbox".

The other site you referenced was actually rolled out late last season as a Beta, so there was no charge. If I remember correctly, not only could you use the projections from that site to build a roster, but you could also upload projections from other sites and use those to build your roster. That site would generate actual rosters that it considered "optimal". Mike's site just provided detailed projections and projected cost per point based on FD salaries, but did not attempt to create lineups.

In addition to all of that, several guys (Chaos Commish and MSU in particular) provided invaluable insight into plays on the thread.

 
Does anyone have a feel for what minutes (if any) Stokes will be looking at early in the season? He seems like a legitimate GPP dart if he's going to play some. That team needs whatever offensive spark it can get and I think Stokes can be a reasonably effective scorer (as well as very good rebounder) to generate value at $3500.00 if he gets sufficient minutes.

 
MikeMan did a really nice website last year with valuations of NBA'ers based on his projections and FD salaries. He also provided subjective information (if so-and-so is out, then bump up so-and-so, etc.). He has said that he will try to fire it back up this year once he has some data on this season. It was free last year with just a request that folks who use it tip him a bit. People will refer to it as the "Mathbox".
Click to expand...
Well come one MikeMan! Let's do this! :thumbup:

 
damon1212 said:
MikeMan did a really nice website last year with valuations of NBA'ers based on his projections and FD salaries. He also provided subjective information (if so-and-so is out, then bump up so-and-so, etc.). He has said that he will try to fire it back up this year once he has some data on this season. It was free last year with just a request that folks who use it tip him a bit. People will refer to it as the "Mathbox".
Click to expand...
Well come one MikeMan! Let's do this! :thumbup:
Click to expand...
I did. And I posted a lineup yesterday afternoon. Finished with 255 and top 15%. Unsure if I can ramp up for the number of games today though. And a little groggy from Royals last night. lol.

 
NixonMask said:
After watching my first few minute of NBA in a years Anthony Davis is just tear-bul. Just tuurible.
Click to expand...
That was ugly, but he's a great great player. If the ugly is an early season slump, then the coming value will be fantastic. Putting all players in a draft pool, a majority of NBA GMs would take Brow #1 overall. I sure would. But I can certainly see how someone watching that mess last night with no other games to consider would feel like you do. It was bizarre. And I said to fade Curry for him! OUch.

With him, Baze and Mozgov disappointing, I cashed easily with 245 at DK. My 30+ $2 gpp LUs at FD lost $13. Man, I had fun though. NBA dfs is like the greatest adrenaline rush evah.

 
MikeMan said:
Chaos Commish said:
2 user(s) are reading this topic

2 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

:popcorn:
Click to expand...
Caught!

And also to newbies: trust anything CC or MSU says over any math I can give you!
Click to expand...
Aww, thanks!!!

I did have a good run last year, but most of my calls were on playing the match ups, home teams and a few gut calls riding the hot hand. This early in the year there isn't enough data for me to do that, especially with so many players changing teams. For the first 3 weeks I will be playing light and learning the teams.

 
MikeMan said:
damon1212 said:
MikeMan did a really nice website last year with valuations of NBA'ers based on his projections and FD salaries. He also provided subjective information (if so-and-so is out, then bump up so-and-so, etc.). He has said that he will try to fire it back up this year once he has some data on this season. It was free last year with just a request that folks who use it tip him a bit. People will refer to it as the "Mathbox".
Click to expand...
Well come one MikeMan! Let's do this! :thumbup:
Click to expand...
I did. And I posted a lineup yesterday afternoon. Finished with 255 and top 15%. Unsure if I can ramp up for the number of games today though. And a little groggy from Royals last night. lol.
Click to expand...
You're just gonna get better as the sample grows. There's so many young starters and roster changes that cannot be accounted for yet that we all need to be a little patient with the Mathbox. But yeah, this is the type of night where your work was really solid last year.

 
msudaisy26 said:
MikeMan said:
Chaos Commish said:
2 user(s) are reading this topic

2 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

:popcorn:
Click to expand...
Caught!

And also to newbies: trust anything CC or MSU says over any math I can give you!
Click to expand...
Aww, thanks!!!

I did have a good run last year, but most of my calls were on playing the match ups, home teams and a few gut calls riding the hot hand. This early in the year there isn't enough data for me to do that, especially with so many players changing teams. For the first 3 weeks I will be playing light and learning the teams.
Click to expand...
Yup, agree on needing more data on the noobs and new situations. I understand playing lightly right now, but last night was pretty easy if you were conservative. I think tonight will probably be nuts, but also relatively easily for cash games. Everyone is dealing with the same lack of information, but we have our trusty o/us, games to fade and games to feature. From there being conservative with solid guys, seeking known minutes and sticking to cash games should work. We'll see.

I'm building around Westbrook and Lillard at point.

 
Chaos Commish said:
NixonMask said:
After watching my first few minute of NBA in a years Anthony Davis is just tear-bul. Just tuurible.
Click to expand...
That was ugly, but he's a great great player. If the ugly is an early season slump, then the coming value will be fantastic. Putting all players in a draft pool, a majority of NBA GMs would take Brow #1 overall. I sure would. But I can certainly see how someone watching that mess last night with no other games to consider would feel like you do. It was bizarre. And I said to fade Curry for him! OUch.

With him, Baze and Mozgov disappointing, I cashed easily with 245 at DK. My 30+ $2 gpp LUs at FD lost $13. Man, I had fun though. NBA dfs is like the greatest adrenaline rush evah.
Click to expand...
I'm thinking about going right back to him. He may not be the best player in the NBA at this moment in time, but I think you underestimate the GMs who would take him with the 1st overall pick if the league started completely over right now. Maybe 1 or 2 wouldn't take him 1st, and they would have to justify themselves after the fact. Admittedly, his offensive game hasn't developed yet, but it will.

 
Chaos Commish said:
msudaisy26 said:
MikeMan said:
Chaos Commish said:
2 user(s) are reading this topic

2 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

:popcorn:
Click to expand...
Caught!

And also to newbies: trust anything CC or MSU says over any math I can give you!
Click to expand...
Aww, thanks!!!

I did have a good run last year, but most of my calls were on playing the match ups, home teams and a few gut calls riding the hot hand. This early in the year there isn't enough data for me to do that, especially with so many players changing teams. For the first 3 weeks I will be playing light and learning the teams.
Click to expand...
Yup, agree on needing more data on the noobs and new situations. I understand playing lightly right now, but last night was pretty easy if you were conservative. I think tonight will probably be nuts, but also relatively easily for cash games. Everyone is dealing with the same lack of information, but we have our trusty o/us, games to fade and games to feature. From there being conservative with solid guys, seeking known minutes and sticking to cash games should work. We'll see.

I'm building around Westbrook and Lillard at point.
Click to expand...
I think Westbrook is an almost must-own tonight, right? SA has never been able to handle his athleticism well.

 
Got smoked on FD last night thanks to Baze and Gasol, but had a clean sweep on Yahoo. Basically cancelled out.

Re Westbrook... yeah he was a monster, without Durrant, but isn't it now a bit hard to predict which of them will produce the most?

Put together the following based on some random Roto and TheFakeBasketball articles:

Lowry, Mo WIlliams

Harden, Gordon

Batum, Mirotic

Zbo, Faried

Capela

FWIW, I've read that the Houston/Denver game should have the highest O/U.

 
karmarooster said:
Got smoked on FD last night thanks to Baze and Gasol, but had a clean sweep on Yahoo. Basically cancelled out.

Re Westbrook... yeah he was a monster, without Durrant, but isn't it now a bit hard to predict which of them will produce the most?

Put together the following based on some random Roto and TheFakeBasketball articles:

Lowry, Mo WIlliams

Harden, Gordon

Batum, Mirotic

Zbo, Faried

Capela

FWIW, I've read that the Houston/Denver game should have the highest O/U.
Click to expand...
Yeah, adding Durant complicates things but I think Westbrook's athleticism is a problem for SA. At his salary point I can see the hesitation.

I really like Harden at home against Denver too. There should be lots of points in that one.

 
Anyone have an opinion on Joffrey Lauvergne? He's min salary across the sites and had some decent numbers in the preseason. Im also a huge GoT fan and would love an excuse to roster the one true king.

 
We've got different opinions of royalty then. When I think "true king" Joffrey embodies it all. Lauvergne though, 13 PPG and 9 boards in the preseason going against Houstons backup center in the game with a high O/U. I didnt know this guy existed until 20 minutes ago which is why Im asking, any reason, assuming he starts, not to roster him?

 
Tennessee_ATO said:
Chaos Commish said:
NixonMask said:
After watching my first few minute of NBA in a years Anthony Davis is just tear-bul. Just tuurible.
Click to expand...
That was ugly, but he's a great great player. If the ugly is an early season slump, then the coming value will be fantastic. Putting all players in a draft pool, a majority of NBA GMs would take Brow #1 overall. I sure would. But I can certainly see how someone watching that mess last night with no other games to consider would feel like you do. It was bizarre. And I said to fade Curry for him! OUch.

With him, Baze and Mozgov disappointing, I cashed easily with 245 at DK. My 30+ $2 gpp LUs at FD lost $13. Man, I had fun though. NBA dfs is like the greatest adrenaline rush evah.
Click to expand...
I'm thinking about going right back to him. He may not be the best player in the NBA at this moment in time, but I think you underestimate the GMs who would take him with the 1st overall pick if the league started completely over right now. Maybe 1 or 2 wouldn't take him 1st, and they would have to justify themselves after the fact. Admittedly, his offensive game hasn't developed yet, but it will.
Click to expand...
By saying merely a majority I underestimated GMs. Correct. I'm not going back to him tonight. That did look like someone struggling with his shot. Maybe Ezeli and Draymond got in his head and it was just one game, or maybe he will slump a little to start the season. He did hit a few late after having a few laughs about it and settling down. Plumlee and M. Leonard tonight are long and athletic. I think sticking to being conservative looks away on a big slate like this. But I was wrong about him last night so...

 
NixonMask said:
We've got different opinions of royalty then. When I think "true king" Joffrey embodies it all. Lauvergne though, 13 PPG and 9 boards in the preseason going against Houstons backup center in the game with a high O/U. I didnt know this guy existed until 20 minutes ago which is why Im asking, any reason, assuming he starts, not to roster him?
Click to expand...
Nah, no real reason not to run him out there at $3500 other than talent, but the lack of talent is reflected in his price. He looks like he'll start. Assuming his back is OK, I say go for it.

 
On FD so far I have:

Lillard
Mudiay
Harden
McCollum
Wiggins
Marcus Morris
Humpheries
Terrence Jones
Capela/Jahil Okafor

On DK I have:

Lillard
Mo
Harden
McCollum
Wiggins
Marcus Morris
Copeland MIN
Gobert

 
Last edited by a moderator:
First draft on FD for cash I have

Wall Lillard

Harden McCollum

Mirotic Winslow

Randle Thad Young

Okafor

Not sure how many minutes Winslow will get but Randle and Okafor are really cheap for their minutes

 
Chaos Commish said:
Tennessee_ATO said:
Chaos Commish said:
NixonMask said:
After watching my first few minute of NBA in a years Anthony Davis is just tear-bul. Just tuurible.
Click to expand...
That was ugly, but he's a great great player. If the ugly is an early season slump, then the coming value will be fantastic. Putting all players in a draft pool, a majority of NBA GMs would take Brow #1 overall. I sure would. But I can certainly see how someone watching that mess last night with no other games to consider would feel like you do. It was bizarre. And I said to fade Curry for him! OUch.

With him, Baze and Mozgov disappointing, I cashed easily with 245 at DK. My 30+ $2 gpp LUs at FD lost $13. Man, I had fun though. NBA dfs is like the greatest adrenaline rush evah.
Click to expand...
I'm thinking about going right back to him. He may not be the best player in the NBA at this moment in time, but I think you underestimate the GMs who would take him with the 1st overall pick if the league started completely over right now. Maybe 1 or 2 wouldn't take him 1st, and they would have to justify themselves after the fact. Admittedly, his offensive game hasn't developed yet, but it will.
Click to expand...
By saying merely a majority I underestimated GMs. Correct. I'm not going back to him tonight. That did look like someone struggling with his shot. Maybe Ezeli and Draymond got in his head and it was just one game, or maybe he will slump a little to start the season. He did hit a few late after having a few laughs about it and settling down. Plumlee and M. Leonard tonight are long and athletic. I think sticking to being conservative looks away on a big slate like this. But I was wrong about him last night so...
Click to expand...
Let me say right up front, there is absolutely no comparison between my NBA knowledge and yours, so I defer to you almost by default.

That said, I may throw a GPP dart at him hoping for a rebound and smaller ownership off of last night. My current cash lineup has Westbrook and Durant so there is no way I can cram him on it anyway.

It wasn't pretty last night, but unless there's some injury issue we have pretty reliable data that the guy is way better than that.

 
Chaos Commish said:
msudaisy26 said:
MikeMan said:
Chaos Commish said:
2 user(s) are reading this topic

2 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

:popcorn:
Click to expand...
Caught!

And also to newbies: trust anything CC or MSU says over any math I can give you!
Click to expand...
Aww, thanks!!!

I did have a good run last year, but most of my calls were on playing the match ups, home teams and a few gut calls riding the hot hand. This early in the year there isn't enough data for me to do that, especially with so many players changing teams. For the first 3 weeks I will be playing light and learning the teams.
Click to expand...
Yup, agree on needing more data on the noobs and new situations. I understand playing lightly right now, but last night was pretty easy if you were conservative. I think tonight will probably be nuts, but also relatively easily for cash games. Everyone is dealing with the same lack of information, but we have our trusty o/us, games to fade and games to feature. From there being conservative with solid guys, seeking known minutes and sticking to cash games should work. We'll see.

I'm building around Westbrook and Lillard at point.
Click to expand...
LOL easily for cash games. Lets see what you have. I think most ppl are going with Harden and Lillard and not so much Westbrook with Durant healthy.

 
Chaos Commish said:
MikeMan said:
damon1212 said:
MikeMan did a really nice website last year with valuations of NBA'ers based on his projections and FD salaries. He also provided subjective information (if so-and-so is out, then bump up so-and-so, etc.). He has said that he will try to fire it back up this year once he has some data on this season. It was free last year with just a request that folks who use it tip him a bit. People will refer to it as the "Mathbox".
Click to expand...
Well come one MikeMan! Let's do this! :thumbup:
Click to expand...
I did. And I posted a lineup yesterday afternoon. Finished with 255 and top 15%. Unsure if I can ramp up for the number of games today though. And a little groggy from Royals last night. lol.
Click to expand...
You're just gonna get better as the sample grows. There's so many young starters and roster changes that cannot be accounted for yet that we all need to be a little patient with the Mathbox. But yeah, this is the type of night where your work was really solid last year.
Click to expand...
OK. . . .so what I'm getting here is "bet the farm tonight on however you feel . . .. go with your gut and overpay for the home town players" . . . .

Right?

:P

 
I'll be building around 2-3 guys who played yesterday. FanDuel hasn't caught up for Irving being out so I'm starting with Mo Williams. Scored 37 last night at a cost of $6000 for a $160 per point (6.25x).

There were 7 guys who were <$200 per point yesterday (5x value if you look at it that way) who play again today. I've posted them up in the recap and will be taking a hard look at those guys again.

I think the start of the season is a great time to build a bankroll on cash games. You can see who has more value than they did last year, especially due to player movement, and therefore will be underpriced. There are a lot of 'special situation' similar to what Mo is in right now even without injury. Further, you got newbies and NFL speculators playing. Things definitely got tougher late in the year last season.

IMHO, if you ever want to go bigger than normal, the start of the season and the playoffs are the way to go.

 
opening night jitters, couldn't sleep, whatever...i'm throwing out last night's brow performance. all about him tonight as i think others will be off. Jrue's return should help give him some looks closer to the basket.

good turbo slate. a lot of high ownership guys for sure, but see some possible value in there. wish the contests were bigger.

 
NixonMask said:
Anyone have an opinion on Joffrey Lauvergne? He's min salary across the sites and had some decent numbers in the preseason. Im also a huge GoT fan and would love an excuse to roster the one true king.
Click to expand...
If he does well with Nurkic out, his price will take a while to rise. I prefer to get some history before jumping in. He averaged about 9FD points last year. Also, when Den had injured Cs last year, it was Faried and Hickson that got the bump. Chandler is out as well, so there are points to go around in Den. I think they all could be good plays today. But like you said, he had a good preseason and it appears he is starting so def can't fault you for saving some cash with him.

 
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Well just missed cashing last night in two $1 GPP's, fading Curry killed me as he was 48% owned in one and 45% in the other. Score 252.2 but it wasn't enough.

Tonight's initial thought:

Lillard / Mo Williams

Harden/McCollum

Marcus Morris/Mirotic

Randolph/Randle

Okafor

your thought's please.

 
Any obvious mistakes here???

PG
Emmanuel Mudiay
#0 DEN - 5.00 DPPG


SG
Justin Anderson
#1 DAL - 5.00 DPPG


SF
Kevin Durant
#35 OKC - 38.05 DPPG


PF
Julius Randle
#30 LAL - 5.00 DPPG


C
Jahlil Okafor
#8 PHI - 5.00 DPPG


FLEX
Karl-Anthony Towns
#32 MIN - 5.00 DPPG


FLEX
James Harden
#13 HOU - 45.60 DPPG


FLEX
Damian Lillard
#0 POR - 32.15 DPPG


FLEX
Marc Gasol
#33 MEM - 31.88 DPPG


FLEX
Anthony Davis
#23 NOP - 47.45 DPPG

Basically start five rookies with $5 salaries and then pick five studs.

 
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