Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

***Official Paxton Lynch Thread*** Seahawks backup QB


cstu

Recommended Posts

On April 29, 2016 at 11:09 AM, BigTex said:

I'm not a homophobic but is Lynch gay? The view of him when he was drafted by Denver....the way that guy was standing behind him and hugging him seemed a bit off. I'm not a professional lip reader but at a few times it looked like he was calling him baby in his ear.

I might be crazy but that entire seemed a bit odd.

Tex

 

3 guys watching the draft together drew a similar conclusion albeit at different times. The wrap around hug/deep pec rub from behind for one, the deep shoulder massage as Lynch bawls his eyes out for another, and last but not least the intimate neck kiss at some point in the insanity for another. TO had a Garcia related quote for this I think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sounds like not just a case of Lynch falling far enough that DEN found his value too compelling at that point and decided to go get him. Elway reportedly had earlier tried to trade up all the way to ATLs pick 17 but found the price prohibitive. Also rumblings that one or more other teams BESIDES DAL were gunning for Lynch.

Peter King MMQB/SI (Friday 4-29 edition)

Super Bowl Champs Win the First Round of the Draft, Too         

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/04/28/nfl-draft-denver-broncos-paxton-lynch#

Also, some mentioned Lynch's Wonderlic score (18).

Derek Carr was 20, Dan Marino and Terry Bradshaw 16, Jim Kelly, Randall Cunningham and Steve McNair 15, Donovan McNabb 14.

http://wonderlictestsample.com/nfl-wonderlic-scores/

* During the ESPN Draft coverage, Gruden pointed out what a rare dual threat athlete he is (37" VL, same as RB Derrick Henry who is considered an extremely explosive athlete, QB is 4" taller and nearly same weight), with almost 300 carries for 18 TDs. Although he qualified it, noted he struggled to come up with a comp (predecessor Osweiler at virtually identical height/weight a common one for obvious reasons), and cited Cam Newton.  

Gruden's QB Camp (VIDEO 23 minutes)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4Yi4DabEKM

Lance Zierlein of NFL.com invoked Mariota. notes that he cut his INTs from 16 to just four in 2015. Imo the following excerpt from the concluding Bottom Line section was one of the most important in the scouting report - "Unlike other size/speed quarterbacks like Vince Young and Colin Kaepernick, Lynch prefers to extend passing plays with his feet rather than bolting from the pocket...".

[He is a gifted runner but looks to throw first - highlights]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jdm3TayuSUo

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/paxton-lynch?id=2555316

Overview

Lynch was lost a bit in the recruiting process after sitting out half of his senior season due to a knee injury suffered in the preseason, allowing Memphis head coach Justin Fuente to nab the Florida product from the under the noses of in-state schools. He redshirted his first year on campus, but then stepped in to become a three-year starter for Fuente. Lynch went through some ups and downs in his first year as a starter, throwing nine touchdowns against 10 interceptions and completing just 58 percent of his passes for about 2,000 yards in 2013. He improved greatly as a sophomore, leading his team to a 10-win season and American Athletic Conference championship. He received second team All-AAC honors that season by completing 63 percent of his passes for 3,031 yards and 22 scores. Lynch exploded onto the national scene during his junior year, garnering a Manning Award finalist nod, first team All-ACC honors, and team MVP after leading the Tigers to an 8-0 start before the team struggled down the stretch losing to Navy, Houston, and Temple. During the teams hot streak, Lynch beat SEC foe Ole Miss with a 39-for-53, 386-yard, three-touchdown performance. But the next time he faced a SEC defense, Auburn took him to task in the Birmingham Bowl, forcing him to complete just 16 of 37 pass attempts for a measly 106 yards and an interception. Despite finishing the season on a down note, the departure of Fuente for Virginia Tech and positive accolades received from the NFL scouting community led Lynch to take his talents to the next level.

Analysis

Strengths

Very tall, athletic body with ability to scan over the top. Elite foot quickness for a tall quarterback. Can maneuver quickly out of a busy pocket and away from trouble, but desires to keep passing option alive. Sets up in the pocket quickly and generally keeps feet "throw ready". More functional scrambler than "tuck and run" quarterback. Sacked just 15 times over 477 drop backs. Able to win with his feet when he needs to. Has a quick release to overcome his slight wind­-up. Has enough arm to drive the ball into restricted windows. Has enough arm to attack downfield while on the move. Makes good decisions. Rarely takes the cheese when cornerbacks try and bait him. Displays qualities of a field leader and isn't easy to rattle. Yards per attempt have exploded over his last two years. Can gain chunk yards as zone-read quarterback and will appeal to boot­-action teams. Will be challenging to defend in the red area. Took better care of the football cutting turnovers down from 16 last season to just four this year. Completed 54.6 percent on intermediate throws (11­20) and 44.9 percent on deep balls (21-plus yards) including 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Weaknesses

Needs to improve ball placement for catch­-and­-run throws. Inability to throw with desired accuracy on the move forced him to leave yards and plays on the field. Must learn to better anticipate routes and stay ahead in the rep. Doesn't quite have the quickness through progressions that he will need in the pros. Has to learn to move defenders around with his eyes to open throwing lanes. At times, crowds targets against the sideline. Needs to stop babying play-­action passes and cut them loose. Consistency of arm strength has been overstated. Inconsistent weight transfer in delivery forces him to muscle some throws. Perimeter throws lack velocity and will nose­dive on him. His ball comes out with wobble and isnt always the most catchable. Touch throws over inside linebackers needs work.

Draft Projection

Round 1

NFL Comparison

Marcus Mariota

Bottom Line

While the hype around "dual threat" quarterbacks has subsided, Lynch possesses the size and athleticism to make NFL teams take a second look. Unlike other size/speed quarterbacks like Vince Young and Colin Kaepernick, Lynch prefers to extend passing plays with his feet rather than bolting from the pocket, but he is still likely to make plenty of plays with his feet over the long haul. Lynch shows the ability to read defenses and make smart decisions, but not yet at an NFL starting level. While he has the physical tools to start right away, a team who is willing to allow him to sit and study his craft for a year could reap maximum rewards in the future.

** Schedule note - DEN plays HOU and Osweiler on MNF week 7 (?), and would have 10 days to prepare Lynch to start if they were so inclined. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Bob Magaw said:

Sounds like not just a case of Lynch falling far enough that DEN found his value too compelling at that point and decided to go get him. Elway reportedly had earlier tried to trade up all the way to ATLs pick 17 but found the price prohibitive. Also rumblings that one or more other teams BESIDES DAL were gunning for Lynch.

Peter King MMQB/SI (Friday 4-29 edition)

Super Bowl Champs Win the First Round of the Draft, Too         

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/04/28/nfl-draft-denver-broncos-paxton-lynch#

Also, some mentioned Lynch's Wonderlic score (18).

Derek Carr was 20, Dan Marino and Terry Bradshaw 16, Jim Kelly, Randall Cunningham and Steve McNair 15, Donovan McNabb 14.

http://wonderlictestsample.com/nfl-wonderlic-scores/

* During the ESPN Draft coverage, Gruden pointed out what a rare dual threat athlete he is (37" VL, same as RB Derrick Henry who is considered an extremely explosive athlete, QB is 4" taller and nearly same weight), with almost 300 carries for 18 TDs. Although he qualified it, noted he struggled to come up with a comp (predecessor Osweiler at virtually identical height/weight a common one for obvious reasons), and cited Cam Newton.  

Gruden's QB Camp (VIDEO 23 minutes)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4Yi4DabEKM

Lance Zierlein of NFL.com invoked Mariota. notes that he cut his INTs from 16 to just four in 2015. Imo the following excerpt from the concluding Bottom Line section was one of the most important in the scouting report - "Unlike other size/speed quarterbacks like Vince Young and Colin Kaepernick, Lynch prefers to extend passing plays with his feet rather than bolting from the pocket...".

[He is a gifted runner but looks to throw first - highlights]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jdm3TayuSUo

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/paxton-lynch?id=2555316

Overview

Lynch was lost a bit in the recruiting process after sitting out half of his senior season due to a knee injury suffered in the preseason, allowing Memphis head coach Justin Fuente to nab the Florida product from the under the noses of in-state schools. He redshirted his first year on campus, but then stepped in to become a three-year starter for Fuente. Lynch went through some ups and downs in his first year as a starter, throwing nine touchdowns against 10 interceptions and completing just 58 percent of his passes for about 2,000 yards in 2013. He improved greatly as a sophomore, leading his team to a 10-win season and American Athletic Conference championship. He received second team All-AAC honors that season by completing 63 percent of his passes for 3,031 yards and 22 scores. Lynch exploded onto the national scene during his junior year, garnering a Manning Award finalist nod, first team All-ACC honors, and team MVP after leading the Tigers to an 8-0 start before the team struggled down the stretch losing to Navy, Houston, and Temple. During the teams hot streak, Lynch beat SEC foe Ole Miss with a 39-for-53, 386-yard, three-touchdown performance. But the next time he faced a SEC defense, Auburn took him to task in the Birmingham Bowl, forcing him to complete just 16 of 37 pass attempts for a measly 106 yards and an interception. Despite finishing the season on a down note, the departure of Fuente for Virginia Tech and positive accolades received from the NFL scouting community led Lynch to take his talents to the next level.

Analysis

Strengths

Very tall, athletic body with ability to scan over the top. Elite foot quickness for a tall quarterback. Can maneuver quickly out of a busy pocket and away from trouble, but desires to keep passing option alive. Sets up in the pocket quickly and generally keeps feet "throw ready". More functional scrambler than "tuck and run" quarterback. Sacked just 15 times over 477 drop backs. Able to win with his feet when he needs to. Has a quick release to overcome his slight wind­-up. Has enough arm to drive the ball into restricted windows. Has enough arm to attack downfield while on the move. Makes good decisions. Rarely takes the cheese when cornerbacks try and bait him. Displays qualities of a field leader and isn't easy to rattle. Yards per attempt have exploded over his last two years. Can gain chunk yards as zone-read quarterback and will appeal to boot­-action teams. Will be challenging to defend in the red area. Took better care of the football cutting turnovers down from 16 last season to just four this year. Completed 54.6 percent on intermediate throws (11­20) and 44.9 percent on deep balls (21-plus yards) including 19 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Weaknesses

Needs to improve ball placement for catch­-and­-run throws. Inability to throw with desired accuracy on the move forced him to leave yards and plays on the field. Must learn to better anticipate routes and stay ahead in the rep. Doesn't quite have the quickness through progressions that he will need in the pros. Has to learn to move defenders around with his eyes to open throwing lanes. At times, crowds targets against the sideline. Needs to stop babying play-­action passes and cut them loose. Consistency of arm strength has been overstated. Inconsistent weight transfer in delivery forces him to muscle some throws. Perimeter throws lack velocity and will nose­dive on him. His ball comes out with wobble and isnt always the most catchable. Touch throws over inside linebackers needs work.

Draft Projection

Round 1

NFL Comparison

Marcus Mariota

Bottom Line

While the hype around "dual threat" quarterbacks has subsided, Lynch possesses the size and athleticism to make NFL teams take a second look. Unlike other size/speed quarterbacks like Vince Young and Colin Kaepernick, Lynch prefers to extend passing plays with his feet rather than bolting from the pocket, but he is still likely to make plenty of plays with his feet over the long haul. Lynch shows the ability to read defenses and make smart decisions, but not yet at an NFL starting level. While he has the physical tools to start right away, a team who is willing to allow him to sit and study his craft for a year could reap maximum rewards in the future.

** Schedule note - DEN plays HOU and Osweiler on MNF week 7 (?), and would have 10 days to prepare Lynch to start if they were so inclined. 

Interesting that the Jets passed on him and targeted Hackenberg in the 2nd round.  I guess we'll find out if they were right in a few years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
Quote

With Mark Sanchez (thumb surgery) not expected to participate in OTAs, Paxton Lynch will see expanded first-team reps.

 

"Just watching him, I think he'll catch up pretty quick," said coach Gary Kubiak after rookie minicamp. The 26th overall pick in the draft, Lynch stands 6-foot-7, 244 and has dual-threat mobility, which will mesh well in Kubiak's bootleg-centric offense. Sanchez is a short-term placeholder at best. If Lynch practices and plays well in the preseason, he should be given a serious look to start in Week 1 against the Panthers.
 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On ‎5‎/‎7‎/‎2016 at 5:13 AM, Tool said:

Interesting that the Jets passed on him and targeted Hackenberg in the 2nd round.  I guess we'll find out if they were right in a few years.

I think in their case it may not just have been a question of Hackenberg vs. Lynch (though it is certainly possible they liked the former better straight up?), but Darron Lee PLUS Hackenberg vs. Lynch PLUS ???

Also interestingly (to me at least :) ), after the NYJ pick #51 used on Hackenberg, the next two consecutive picks were Deion Jones and Su'a Cravens by ATL and WAS, respectively (listed as LBs, though Cravens a S/LB hybrid like ATL first rounder Keanu Neal, similar to Deone Bucannon and Mark Barron last year). Than not another LB pick until #83 - Jordan Jenkins to the Jets (though OAK is currently listing pick #75, Shilique Calhoun as a LB).

Lee was one of my favorite defensive players in the draft (along with fallen, former top 5-10 overall prospects, fellow LBs Jaylon Smith to DAL and Myles Jack to JAX, as well as JAX CB/S Jalen Ramsey and OAK SS Karl Joseph), and Bowles seems pretty high on him, too - may remind him of a squeaky clean Daryl Washington, former All-Pro ILB in ARI before spousal battery and drug-related indefinite suspensions left his career in jeopardy. So if the Jets liked Hackenberg almost as much as Lynch (let alone more), it would have made this a fairly easy decision from that perspective.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So what happened in this process?  First two pages of this thread I read from last year everyone was talking as if Lynch was THE guy for first off the board in the draft.  Fast forward 5-6 months and he's barely getting into the bottom of the round.  What made Goff and Wentz so clearly jump him?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, spider321 said:

Teams discovered Lynch is a hipster.

EVERYONE hates hipsters.

Well, I DO have to say when I saw him at the draft I thought "this guy is either going to be another Johnny Manzell or Joe Namath". 

He's definitely not lacking in the swag department.  BUt I really don't see exactly what changed the perception from when he was everyone's #1 to a guy not in the discussion on draft night. It kind of appears that that 3 game bad stretch last year knocked him down but that seems pretty harsh to change his outlook so dramatically.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On ‎5‎/‎24‎/‎2016 at 1:50 AM, Bob Magaw said:

I think in their case it may not just have been a question of Hackenberg vs. Lynch (though it is certainly possible they liked the former better straight up?), but Darron Lee PLUS Hackenberg vs. Lynch PLUS ???

Also interestingly (to me at least :) ), after the NYJ pick #51 used on Hackenberg, the next two consecutive picks were Deion Jones and Su'a Cravens by ATL and WAS, respectively (listed as LBs, though Cravens a S/LB hybrid like ATL first rounder Keanu Neal, similar to Deone Bucannon and Mark Barron last year). Than not another LB pick until #83 - Jordan Jenkins to the Jets (though OAK is currently listing pick #75, Shilique Calhoun as a LB).

Lee was one of my favorite defensive players in the draft (along with fallen, former top 5-10 overall prospects, fellow LBs Jaylon Smith to DAL and Myles Jack to JAX, as well as JAX CB/S Jalen Ramsey and OAK SS Karl Joseph), and Bowles seems pretty high on him, too - may remind him of a squeaky clean Daryl Washington, former All-Pro ILB in ARI before spousal battery and drug-related indefinite suspensions left his career in jeopardy. So if the Jets liked Hackenberg almost as much as Lynch (let alone more), it would have made this a fairly easy decision from that perspective.

I love Lee. Targeted him in my dynasty rookie drafts and went 2 for 3 in getting him (missed him in one when the team ahead of me took him right before I was). I actually like him better than Smith or Jack simply because there is no injury concern there. Now, obviously sans injury issues both Smith and Jack are clearly better prospects but in the risk vs reward of a boom or bust proposition with Smith and Jack- you then have Lee who in my view was the safest LB bet you could make. Not as high of an upside but really not a very low downside at all.

Turning back around, I think @Bob Magawnails it here that it may not so much be Hackenberg over Lynch but rather Lee over either and we don't see that much difference or at least enough to motivate us to leave Lee there. So, I don't read much into that in terms of motivation by the Jets. Both QB's clearly have flaws that need to be corrected to be successful in the NFL and both have enough there where they have a shot to do it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The more I read and watch this guy, I think Elway may have just made a move that will make him look good for a long time. I really don't see how this guy isn't going to be at least an above average QB in the league. 

 

Really, Wentz is the guy I'm scratching my head on at this point and while it's not a bone of contention I would be "concerned" about, I kind of wonder if Goff can truly read defenses. Seems like he had a lot of plays that were schemed to be pre-snap.  Totally armchair amateur speaking there but its how it looks to me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Shutout said:

So what happened in this process?  First two pages of this thread I read from last year everyone was talking as if Lynch was THE guy for first off the board in the draft.  Fast forward 5-6 months and he's barely getting into the bottom of the round.  What made Goff and Wentz so clearly jump him?

 

I liked Paxton early on but got caught up studying his game.  Lots of details but the bottom line is I saw two things that made me back off the Lynch bandwagon.

  1. Ball placement
  2. Footwork

The high completion percentage was the result of a high percent of short or behind the LOS throws but the ball placement was terrible even on those easy-peasy layup tosses.

He is tall and gangly and his footwork gets sloppy when he has to move laterally and get a base to make throws.  He has a strong arm and athleticism to heave it out there even with the wonky footwork but he really needs to clean that up IMHO.  Having a poor throwing base isn't just an esthetic flaw for a QB.  It is not like a wonky release that many QBs have been able to overcome but when you have one foot pointing in one direction and the other pointing in another direction, you can't step into your throw and aren't as accurate.

Throwing from a bad base also opens you up to injury since you are spread out more.  If he gets hit in an awkward position his chances of getting an injury increase IMHO.

46 minutes ago, Shutout said:

Wentz is the guy I'm scratching my head on at this point

Yeah, I don't have a good read on this kid due to the level of competition and what other QBs have done in the same system having similar individual and team success.  Its really difficult to say throws that he made in ND translate and he is late pulling the trigger on many throws and doesn't keep his feet moving so he takes time to reset if his primary doesn't get separation from what I noticed.  

But he has the size, strength, arm, and he stepped in at the Senior Bowl so...  No one really knows so I'd consider that a gamble.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also, the main reason that Wentz didn't go to a bigger school was because he's a late bloomer.  He was 5' 8" as a freshman in High School and didn't grow into his frame until his Jr (6'3") and Sr (6'5") years.  He also missed part of his Junior year due to injury, which is when most recruits are scouted.

By the time he was showing skill he was already a senior and was basically too late to the party.  In different circumstances he could have easily been recruited to a top school based on his skill.  I'd be shocked if 5 years from now Lynch was better than Wentz.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

Also, the main reason that Wentz didn't go to a bigger school was because he's a late bloomer.  He was 5' 8" as a freshman in High School and didn't grow into his frame until his Jr (6'3") and Sr (6'5") years.  He also missed part of his Junior year due to injury, which is when most recruits are scouted.

By the time he was showing skill he was already a senior and was basically too late to the party.  In different circumstances he could have easily been recruited to a top school based on his skill.  I'd be shocked if 5 years from now Lynch was better than Wentz.

Interesting.  Why is that? Wentz doesn't do anything better than Lynch now, why you think he'll be better? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, massraider said:

Interesting.  Why is that? Wentz doesn't do anything better than Lynch now, why you think he'll be better? 

This is the point where if I were waffling between these two players I would gamble on the one that went 24 picks higher.  I know people will throw out Smith and Rodgers as an example, but, in general, drafting rookies is all a crap shoot anyway.  Why delude yourself into thinking you know better than the majority of NFL scouts?

Edited by Braktastic
Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Braktastic said:

This is the point where if I were waffling between these two players I would gamble on the one that went 24 picks higher.  I know people will throw out Smith and Rodgers as an example, but, in general, drafting rookies is all a crap shoot anyway.  Why delude yourself into thinking you know better than the majority of NFL scouts?

Better then one team.  Just one.  

The entire NFL didn't collectively decide to draft Wentz.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You could say that about nearly every player.

Only one team took Goff. And Bosa. And Elliot. And Ramsey. And Stanley. And Buckner (Conklin arguably the first surprising pick in the top 10, and perhaps shouldn't have been based on positional need and breaking events with Tunsil).

They all went within the approximate range they were expected to. As did Lynch, maybe a little lower.

Maybe the scouting community is wrong, but clearly Goff and Wentz had reached overwhelming separation throughout the process and leading up to the draft. Anything could happen, but it would have been much more shocking if Lynch had gone #2 and Wentz in the 20s to DEN. PHI was just one team, but they were also just one team that paid a lot to move up to take him at #2 (even more when factoring in Alonso and Maxwell to get from #13 to #8). If they thought he would have fallen to #13 (or #8), they probably wouldn't have done that. It is more suggestive than if they had been picking at #2 to start with.

Not sure if you are disputing Wentz was a consensus vastly superior prospect to Lynch, or just playing a devil's advocate role. If the former, maybe Lynch ends up better, but I don't think there is much controversy that Wentz was commonly viewed as having a far higher GRADE (not JUST people like Mayock and DJ). Some scouts think Lynch may have the highest upside in the class, so there's that.

For the record, I took Lynch in two of four dynasty drafts so far (have Luck/Romo and Stafford/Romo in the other two), but would much rather have Wentz.

To answer the earlier question, what does Wentz do better than Lynch? Intangibles are obviously huge at the QB position, and Goff and Wentz were said to be exemplary. Lynch is a freaky athlete for his size, and I like the fact that when he breaks contain and extends the play with his legs he keeps his eyes up like a point guard and continues to scan downfield to distribute the ball to his playmakers (also like that they are now DT and Sanders, one of the best WR tandems in the NFL, and a great defense takes tremendous pressure off of him - pretty unassailable Lynch benefits from the best short/mid-term SITUATION in real football terms). Passing mechanics-wise, I though Goff and Wentz separated themselves at the combine, they just looked more natural and better in some ways (Goff reminds me of a combo of Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, Wentz reminds me of a combo of Palmer and Roethlisberger - not saying *IDENTICAL* overlap, just that some FACETS of their respective games are reminiscent to me). Lynch has a cannon, don't get me wrong, but not referring to arm strength. More about accuracy and anticipation to hit WRs out of their breaks. Lynch more frequently all over the place (high, low, behind), Goff and Wentz more often hit receivers on the numbers and in stride where they could quickly turn and run with the ball. IMO.

* Wentz admittedly lower level of competition, but his scheme asked him to do things more like what he will be asked to do in the NFL, so in THAT respect, better preparing him for the next level. Memphis was nothing like a pro style scheme, and to that extent making his development and projection extremely uncertain. This is typical of most college offenses, including Cal. But within the limitation of his scheme, Goff showed some innate talent at sensing and reacting to the rush, quick feet and release, whole field reads, decisiveness, anticipation, accuracy, etc., all scheme transcendent, highly translatable skills to the NFL.         

      

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A really fun part of fantasy is making calls. You like a player over another player.   

Draft position cannot be ignored,  it's silly to do it. But it's not the final word.  Kenneth Dixon is getting drafted in front of Kenyan Drake in MOST rookie drafts.  Why is that OK,  but daring to take Lynch over Wentz is crazy talk? Funny part is, that should be questioned more, because many teams passed over Dixon, while only one or two teams they needed a QB passed on Lynch.

But everyone loved Dixon pre-draft,  so that's OK. But maybe more people should be questioning whether the draft community made a mistake ranking Dixon so high,  considering how low he fell. 

I like that the Broncos took Lynch.  Good organization.  I love his supporting cast.  Wentz and Goff, who are they throwing to? I think Wentz got a pass in the pre-draft process, and wasn't ever picked apart like Goff and Lynch.  

Making a call,  on underrated players is what I want to do. I'm not just going to use the draft list,  and take the next player at a position, because he was drafted higher.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everybody does this, but talking about different things (not just that you might like this or that QB more). I don't question liking Lynch over Wentz (though as noted, I don't agree), just that attempting to discern where they were likely to go is some kind of wild free form. If we throw out all possible scouting guidance, than nobody knows anything. Guessing you don't operate that way, where you "slot" expected draft pedigree for players is highly likely informed not only by your own judgements but a whole interconnected network of opinions by scouts (professional or amateur) you have come to weight relatively more or less. If you don't completely discard and throw away EVERYTHING related to this kind of scouting gleaned pedigree expectations in general, no need to here specifically. And again, not talking about you liking Lynch more than Wentz, just differ that we had absolutely no idea where both were likely to go.      

Earlier it was about whether or not Wentz and Lynch went AROUND where they were expected to. They did. It is fine to question whether that is how it should have been. But there relative standing did follow expectations. Dixon would be a different example, if he was expected to go higher. Some scouts thought so (Josh Norris had him #30 overall, for instance), some didn't. Zierlein gave him a third round grade, Frank Coyle a fourth - he went in the fourth. 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/kenneth-dixon?id=2555229 

There may always be contrarian, outlier ratings. Maybe some think Elliot should have gone in the 7th round. And others that Mr. Irrelevant should have been the #1 overall pick (and that Battlefield Earth was better than Blade Runner or 2001). But that doesn't really concern us. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Bob Magaw said:

Everybody does this, but talking about different things (not just that you might like this or that QB more). I don't question liking Lynch over Wentz (though as noted, I don't agree), just that attempting to discern where they were likely to go is some kind of wild free form. If we throw out all possible scouting guidance, than nobody knows anything. Guessing you don't operate that way, where you "slot" expected draft pedigree for players is highly likely informed not only by your own judgements but a whole interconnected network of opinions by scouts (professional or amateur) you have come to weight relatively more or less. If you don't completely discard and throw away EVERYTHING related to this kind of scouting gleaned pedigree expectations in general, no need to here specifically. And again, not talking about you liking Lynch more than Wentz, just differ that we had absolutely no idea where both were likely to go.      

Earlier it was about whether or not Wentz and Lynch went AROUND where they were expected to. They did. It is fine to question whether that is how it should have been. But there relative standing did follow expectations. Dixon would be a different example, if he was expected to go higher. Some scouts thought so (Josh Norris had him #30 overall, for instance), some didn't. Zierlein gave him a third round grade, Frank Coyle a fourth - he went in the fourth. 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/kenneth-dixon?id=2555229 

There may always be contrarian, outlier ratings. Maybe some think Elliot should have gone in the 7th round. And others that Mr. Irrelevant should have been the #1 overall pick (and that Battlefield Earth was better than Blade Runner or 2001). But that doesn't really concern us. 

You're right, we are talking about different things.  I never said that no one had any idea where players were going.  You are arguing a very small point that I didn't even make.  

I have very specific thoughts on this QB class, and what the scouting community told us, and what everyone swallowed as common knowledge.  

I think the gap between these QBs is much more narrow than draft position would have us believe.  I believe that neither Goff or Wentz are prospects on a level with Winston/Mariota, let alone Luck/Griffin.  

I think their true draft value lies closer to where Lynch was taken.  However, the premium of the QB position, and two teams that, IMO, made desperate moves to secure a QB, pushed up QB to the top of the draft.  I think Goff and Wentz were overdrafted, and Lynch was about right.  That's about the size of it.  

The fact that a lot of dynasty owners can acquire the player of the three in the better situation, with the better organization, with the best weapons means I think Lynch represents value.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe I misinterpreted the below:

"Better then one team.  Just one.  

The entire NFL didn't collectively decide to draft Wentz."

I get that YOU think Lynch is close or better, but don't think it is very ambiguous what the scouting community thought, and that is reflected in their respective pedigrees. Goff and Wentz are very close together at 1 & 2, Lynch not so much in the 20s. Again, not questioning your subjective opinion (or right to it), just that we had no idea where Wentz was going to go. A separate issue from your individual scouting beliefs (which may be right? :)). I think I'm pretty clear on what you are and aren't saying in relation to the context of these different but related points.

It isn't mutually exclusive that Goff and Wentz could be not as good as Winston and Mariota (though Mayock eventually concluded the 2016 top two signal callers could be the equals or surpass their 2015 peers and counterparts) and still have some separation with Lynch.

Whether LA or PHI were "desperate" (kind of a loaded descriptive term, if LA or PHI make it to the playoffs due to their QB moves, it was a smart play, the fact that you have predetermined they grossly overpaid before they have even taken a snap or any of the players TEN and CLE received in return notwithstanding) or not doesn't change the fact that most scouts clearly identified the top two QBs BEFORE the separate trade ups. Exactly who they would go to may not have been known, but who they would be was, and that was an evaluation outside of and irrelevant to so called "desperation". For instance, NOBODY would have been confused if CLE opted to not trade down and took Wentz themselves. Lynch would have been a shocker.

Situation is important, but sometimes you can get burned by chasing it. If Lynch isn't wired as well as Goff and Wentz, he may not make the most of and maximize his admittedly better opportunity. Some people (not necessarily you) seem to be completely oblivious to the fact that the Rams added maybe the best receiving TE in the draft, albeit with some legal and injury question marks, one of the best slot WRs (and incidentally, both of their games nicely aligned and meshed with Goff's skill set, i.e. - accuracy and touch between the hashes) and one of the most underrated outside WRs in the draft - Higbee, Cooper and Thomas.

Dynasty isn't just about one year. In the 2017 draft, despite giving up a first and third, the Rams are expected to have a second, third and two fourths to surround Goff with more receiving weapons. They have some talent and a lot of youth and depth on the OL, and the defense could be top 10 caliber in the near future (besieged with injuries last season). In some cases, Wentz and Lynch aren't drafted that far apart in fantasy leagues, so the latter may not offer appreciably greater value on that score.

It might help to clarify how important situation is in your evaluation by simply addressing who you would take if all three went to LA (or PHI, or DEN).  

   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, massraider said:

 I think Goff and Wentz were overdrafted, and Lynch was about right.

You can't overdraft QB's if they are good.  If Lynch is a good starting QB then he should have went 1.3.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Bob Magaw said:

Maybe I misinterpreted the below:

"Better then one team.  Just one.  

The entire NFL didn't collectively decide to draft Wentz."

I get that YOU think Lynch is close or better, but don't think it is very ambiguous what the scouting community thought, and that is reflected in their respective pedigrees. Goff and Wentz are very close together at 1 & 2, Lynch not so much in the 20s. Again, not questioning your subjective opinion (or right to it), just that we had no idea where Wentz was going to go. A separate issue from your individual scouting beliefs (which may be right? :)). I think I'm pretty clear on what you are and aren't saying in relation to the context of these different but related points.

I think what the scouting community thought was shaped by group think, and they all have a sudden tendency to change their ratings up and down at the same time.  Funny how that works.  Yes, the scouting community all had Wentz ranked very high--late in the process, when it was apparent where he was going.  The scouting community, none of them were ran king him highly, and when buzz began, outside of the scouting community, they all got on board, and frankly, overrated Wentz, IMO.  However, because the scouting community called where these guys were going to be drafted (when it became clear to everyone through news, not through their own scouting), doesn't mean that every NFL team would have taken them in this order.

You want me to acknowledge that pretty much everyone agreed that Goff and Wentz were a big jump over Lynch.  I don't think all NFL teams would have taken them in that order, but there is no proof of this one way or another.  Just my opinion.  I think a lot of teams would have taken Cook over Hackernberg, but it didn't work out that way.  

Only one team took Goff that high.  And only one team took Wentz that high.

If you'd like me to agree that Draft Twitter had them ranked in the order/value they went, then yes, that is 100% true.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, massraider said:

I think what the scouting community thought was shaped by group think, and they all have a sudden tendency to change their ratings up and down at the same time.  Funny how that works.  Yes, the scouting community all had Wentz ranked very high--late in the process, when it was apparent where he was going.  The scouting community, none of them were ran king him highly, and when buzz began, outside of the scouting community, they all got on board, and frankly, overrated Wentz, IMO.  However, because the scouting community called where these guys were going to be drafted (when it became clear to everyone through news, not through their own scouting), doesn't mean that every NFL team would have taken them in this order.

You want me to acknowledge that pretty much everyone agreed that Goff and Wentz were a big jump over Lynch.  I don't think all NFL teams would have taken them in that order, but there is no proof of this one way or another.  Just my opinion.  I think a lot of teams would have taken Cook over Hackernberg, but it didn't work out that way.  

Only one team took Goff that high.  And only one team took Wentz that high.

If you'd like me to agree that Draft Twitter had them ranked in the order/value they went, then yes, that is 100% true.  

You still seem to be conflating destination with scouting grade.

Goff and Wentz graded higher than Lynch BEFORE the respective trades, when their destination wasn't yet known. "Late in the process, when they knew where Wentz was going"? How could they have known that before the PHI trade?

How was it clear where they were going "through the news", before anybody knew where they were going? You seem to be constructing a narrative after the fact that is consistent with your beliefs and opinions. While we may not know where Goff or Wentz would have gone if LA and PHI hadn't taken them #1 & #2, we also don't know that CLE wouldn't have taken Goff (at least suggestive to me that as soon as LA leapfrogged CLE and Fisher's friend and well known close media contact Michael Silver STRONGLY suggested Goff was the pick, THEN CLE traded down) and DAL Wentz. I don't find in your analysis any compelling rationale to think they both would have skidded into the 20s, and it is only due to "groupthink" that we think otherwise. :) What we do know, unassailably, is that Lynch DID drop. We DO have information that every team until DEN traded up passed. If more teams had valued Lynch as the #1 QB in the class of '16, why would he have fallen BELOW even where E.J. Manuel was taken a few years ago, in what I think was historically low or at least rare kind of low for a top QB? I'm not seeing a good explanation for that, and why we should see things like you that Lynch was really a #1 in class-type QB prospect but misunderstood or underappreciated. Is your point that all the teams before DEN traded up were also plagued by "groupthink"?  

You clearly don't seem that high on Goff and Wentz (consistent with thinking LA and PHI grossly overpaid before a down has been played). Which is fine, your prerogative. But the fact that the vast majority see it differently, doesn't mean everybody is plagued by "groupthink", or didn't come to THEIR own conclusions, as you did.        

QB grades are in large part intangible-based. Sometimes teams get it wrong (Leaf, Russell, Manziel, etc.). But in this case, the teams that got a chance to interview them seem to have decided it wasn't very close. Why is it such a surprise that after receiving new information, that Goff and Wentz carried themselves better, presumably interviewed better, demonstrated superior composure through the process, and that this might lead to the decision makers reacting to the new information accordingly, in some cases changing their minds, and this acknowledged changed state of affairs propagating downstream from there? Why assume Mayock and DJ couldn't have a league-wide network of scouting sources, and if some are independent, or attached to teams that interviewed the principals but unlikely to draft them and therefore free to be candid, weren't just reporting what they actually thought, and not "groupthink"?     

Not sure what you mean by *SUDDEN*. The Senior Bowl (for Wentz), combine and pro days leading up to the draft may not be as long in duration as a prospects entire prep and collegiate of work. But they are undeniably more intensively scrutinized by scouts, coaches and front office types league-wide. I wouldn't completely discount the fact that in this *SUDDEN* but intensively scrutinized part of the process, Goff and Wentz clearly achieved separation and Lynch was found wanting. 

I can't speak for others, but I came to the conclusion that Goff and Wentz looked like superior prospects throughout the process leading up to the draft, not just because Mayock and DJ may have liked them better, but what I saw with my own eyes. It might be safer to speak for yourself, than attribute motives to others which are ultimately impossible to know. You think what you think. Bully for you, meant un-ironically, I respect those that stick to their guns (EBF comes to mind). Not really necessary to slag the entire scouting community as mindless lemming/zombies to hold your opinions and beliefs? But maybe that is just me? It is ALSO consistent with the evidence that Goff and Wentz were characterized by ACTUAL separation during the process and the scouting community simply recognized that actuality.     

A couple other examples that have nothing to do with "groupthink". Goff had a career red zone TD/INT ratio of 56/1. Of course scouts liked that. What's not to like? Come up with some examples of other QBs that were as good on that score. If you can't, you may have just answered for yourself why scouts liked him, and it had nothing to do with "groupthink". Also, PFF or Football Outsiders has a proprietary screen called QBASE in which Goff's cohort group spit out by the stat algorithm was significantly higher than other QBs in the class. Again, nothing to do with "groupthink". Doesn't mean it is necessarily RIGHT (both Goff and Wentz had good and bad examples in their respective cohort groups, just Goff had more good and less bad, and Wentz less good and more bad), just that it has nothing to do with "groupthink."         

* If Jessica Alba, Miranda Kerr and Kathy Bates enter a disco that caters to the partially sighted and at first they all sort of look alike to the patrons, but later in the evening the group collectively snaps into greater focus and resolution (smoke dissipates?) and "suddenly" the former two are surrounded by vastly greater numbers finding them more attractive and the latter is relatively ignored, is that "groupthink"? Groupthink is right sometimes. Being an iconoclast isn't a magical exemption to being mistaken. :)

** When you research and prepare for the draft, you read scouts. How does that work? If you agree with them (or they with you), are they "good" scouts? And if they disagree with you (or you with them), are they "bad" scouts? I disagree with Mayock and DJ ALL THE TIME. But I think of them as good scouts whether I agree with them or not. If they see it differently (and especially if their positions are moored/anchored to identifiable traits I can verify for myself, even if I interpret the implications differently, or come to alternate conclusions) I still think they are good scouts, not hoodwinked or bamboozled by "groupthink".  

*** Why I liked this play had nothing to do with groupthink, but encapsulates/exemplifies why I think Goff was the #1 QB.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:13747122      

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...
Quote
 

The Denver Post's Troy Renck believes 2016 is "setting up as a redshirt year" for No. 26 overall pick Paxton Lynch.

 

There is a consensus among beat writers that Lynch finished OTAs/minicamp season as a distant No. 3 behind journeyman Mark Sanchez and 2015 seventh-rounder Trevor Siemian. Although Lynch's physical tools are mouth watering, he was widely viewed as at least a one-year project before the draft. It would still be disappointing if Lynch didn't at least apply some pressure to Sanchez and Siemian this preseason. Sanchez has a 19:23 TD-to-INT ratio over his last 16 NFL games and Siemian was a below-average starter at Northwestern.
 
 
Jul 3 - 5:00 PM

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
Quote

According to 9 News Denver's Mike Klis, "it appears" the Broncos want first-rounder Paxton Lynch to "play at some point this season."

 

The coaches realize Lynch isn't close to being ready after he finished spring as the distant No. 3 behind Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian. But Lynch's immense talent and athletic upside should help him close the gap quickly with training camp and preseason reps. Sanchez is the heavy favorite to start the opener, but it wouldn't be a shock to see Lynch the second half of the year.
 
Source: 9 News Denver

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote
 

Broncos coach Gary Kubiak acknowledged first-round pick Paxton Lynch struggled with "verbiage, huddle, those types of things" at spring practices.

 

Kubiak did say he's been "pleased" with Lynch early in camp, insisting he's shown "improvement." Kubiak later stated Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian would share first-team reps, with Lynch mainly quarterbacking the third team. Barring a big step forward in preseason games, Lynch appears likely to open the season as a healthy game-day scratch a la Carson Wentz in Philadelphia.
 
 
Jul 27 - 7:49 PM

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote
 

Broncos coach Gary Kubiak said Monday first-round QB Paxton Lynch is "really, really stepping up" at recent practices.

 

Kubiak conceded when camp started that Lynch "struggled" during the spring, but Lynch has turned it up a notch so far in the summer. "He's making some progress here," added Kubiak. Lynch is still working behind Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian, but Sanchez has been turning the ball over and Siemian is a checkdown machine. Lynch could start to rally with a big preseason.
 
 
Aug 1 - 5:24 PM

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote
 

First-round pick Paxton Lynch admitted Wednesday he's been "inconsistent" so far in training camp.

 

Just after Gary Kubiak talked up Lynch for "really, really stepping up" at recent practices, Lynch went back in the tank with a brutal effort at Wednesday's session, where he was reportedly "all over the place with the football, with quite a few badly overthrown passes" in what "might have been the rookie’s worst day of camp so far." Mark Sanchez has also struggled early in Broncos camp. Trevor Siemian has been more efficient, but is a checkdown king.
 
 
Source: Denver Post 
Aug 3 - 8:11 PM

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Week 1 preseason grades: Paxton Lynch among top AFC rookies

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000685442/article/week-1-preseason-grades-paxton-lynch-among-top-afc-rookies

DENVER BRONCOS: Paxton Lynch, quarterback. Hats off to coach Gary Kubiak and his staff for crafting game plans that allow quarterbacks to play to their strengths as passers. Lynch is an athletic playmaker with a big arm and nimble feet, but the first-round pick spent his collegiate career at Memphis playing in a spread offense that featured a number of "catch-and-fire" routes or RPO (run-pass option) concepts. Despite his inexperience running a traditional offense, the 6-7, 244-pound gunslinger looked comfortable against the Bears on Thursday executing the Broncos' movement-based offense, which blended a number of play-action and traditional dropback passes. Lynch not only showed outstanding footwork working through his drops, but he flashed the athleticism and movement skills that few expect from an XXL passer. Whether he was picking up first downs on impromptu scrambles or getting to the corner on designed rollouts, Lynch showed the kind of athleticism that could enhance the Broncos' running game down the road. With Lynch also flashing his arm delivering dimes from the pocket and on the move, the Broncos' future QB1 is playing with supreme confidence at this time. It will be interesting to see if he can continue to perform well against better competition. GRADE: A-

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

Broncos coach Gary Kubiak said first-round pick Paxton Lynch could start in Week 1.

 

Neither Mark Sanchez nor Trevor Siemian has separated in the quarterback battle. At this point, it makes the most sense for the Broncos to start Lynch in their regular season dress rehearsal next week, and start him in Week 1 if he's at least competent. "He’s always been in the mix," Kubiak said of Lynch. "I just told you guys that he’s behind the other two from a knowledge standpoint, but we’ve been out there competing every day. Everybody is in competition to play." Sanchez has committed three turnovers this preseason. Siemian threw a pick six to 49ers S Eric Reid on Saturday night.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

something about the dude look awkward to me.  Not sure what it is.  Maybe his arms are too big, reminds me of Tebow.  But the ball comes out on time and relatively accurate so it's not a full-on Tebow.  Not sure what it is.

Gotta be pleased with today's performance.  Hitting a 94 passer rating in your first regular season action, coming off the bench - gotta be encouraging.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, moleculo said:

something about the dude look awkward to me.  Not sure what it is.  Maybe his arms are too big, reminds me of Tebow.  But the ball comes out on time and relatively accurate so it's not a full-on Tebow.  Not sure what it is.

Gotta be pleased with today's performance.  Hitting a 94 passer rating in your first regular season action, coming off the bench - gotta be encouraging.

Ball wobbles a bit in comparison to Siemians. His arm looks in a weird spot pre throw and release is a bit slower then Siemians. He moved well and kept out of harms way nicely. Siemian always looked smaller and that tackle was bad for his build - he got tossed like a ragdoll. And it was all on the OLine early - they were lost on a couple of plays picking up the wrong blocks. I think we are OK with Lynch and was happy to see Kubiak put some faith in him early and letting him throw - including a nice bomb try to DT but DT was called for interference. He can throw it long so if you want to - let him grip it and rip it - it is almost like a punt if it gets picked off. Atlanta can be thrown on so I expect them to wing it around a bit. It will be interesting to see if the prep work during the week reaches starter #'s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is the door open for Lynch now? I heard that Fox is planning to role with Siemian as long as he's healthy. Siemian suffered a AC sprain to his left shoulder, the same type of injury that Jimmy Garoppolo sustained and has kept him out for 2 weeks since the injury. Garoppolo couldn't even suit up as the backup in week 4 due to the injury.

IF Lynch were able to get 2 starts as a result of Siemian's injury, he would play against Atlanta and SD. Two matchups that are very good from an offensive standpoint. Perhaps so much so that he will keep the job.

Any homers with some insight into this?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Tommy Collins said:

Is the door open for Lynch now? I heard that Fox is planning to role with Siemian as long as he's healthy. Siemian suffered a AC sprain to his left shoulder, the same type of injury that Jimmy Garoppolo sustained and has kept him out for 2 weeks since the injury. Garoppolo couldn't even suit up as the backup in week 4 due to the injury.

IF Lynch were able to get 2 starts as a result of Siemian's injury, he would play against Atlanta and SD. Two matchups that are very good from an offensive standpoint. Perhaps so much so that he will keep the job.

Any homers with some insight into this?

First of all, Fox isn't the coach.

Secondly, word out of Dove Valley is that Siemian may start on Sunday even if he doesn't get any snaps throughout the week.  This does not appear to be a Wally Pipp situation.

I'd point out that Siemian was the #2 QB yesterday, he could have played if needed.  He stayed in uniform and didn't ice up the shoulder during the game.  This might have been a matter of Kubiak just going with the hot hand and seeing what the kid could do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/3/2016 at 4:30 PM, moleculo said:

First of all, Fox isn't the coach.

Secondly, word out of Dove Valley is that Siemian may start on Sunday even if he doesn't get any snaps throughout the week.  This does not appear to be a Wally Pipp situation.

I'd point out that Siemian was the #2 QB yesterday, he could have played if needed.  He stayed in uniform and didn't ice up the shoulder during the game.  This might have been a matter of Kubiak just going with the hot hand and seeing what the kid could do.

Wally Pipp was a starter for 10 years and nearly a career .300 hitter when Gehrig stepped in. Siemian has had one good game and Lynch was a first-round pick that they understandably should be are curious to see what they have. Wally Pipp doesn't apply here imo. 

Edited by ryno1980
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/3/2016 at 5:50 PM, Mile High said:

Listening to CJ and Stokely they were pointing out Siemian had won the locker room and it might not be a good idea if it seemed to the players they just handed the job to Lynch.

Have to believe that's a huge factor in Kubiak saying he's still the starter.

Now if he can't go and Lynch does well, it gets a little trickier...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...