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Footballguy
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
I fixed the first sentenced for you, at least relative to PPR leagues, and he's also been on the field more than Gronk the past two seasons.Arodin said:
My thoughts on your second sentence are similar, but due to Reeds immense risk as boring as this sounds I'd consider the trade even.
Why do people keep repeating this nonsense? Fitzpatrick and Hoyer both posted >90 QBR in those two years. Not only is that not "bad QB play" that's actually "good QB play".Maybe, like me, they don't put any stock in QBR.
It's understandable to take it with a grain of salt, but "bad QB play" will not result in 90+ QBR. Even if you disagree that Fitzpatrick and Hoyer played relatively well, you have to recognize that they both played better than expected and were at least average. This narrative that Hopkins thrived with poor QB play for two years needs to die. It is founded purely in that Fitzpatrick and Hoyer were journeymen QBs and not at all in their actual play.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I could be wrong, but I don't think that's how QBR works. It actually tends to award good QB play (high YPA, TD:INT ratio), but not necessarily good fantasy QB play. From a fantasy perspective, I believe Houston passing stats were right in the middle of the pack in 2014 and 2015.
I don't pay attention to QB ratings so I went and checked and kind of confused because the highest QBR rating in 2015 was 78.6? Either way Hoyer in 2015 was #23 so relatively speaking not good and Fitz in 2015 was #15 so better but still average.
All I know is to my eye I did not consider Hoyer or Fitz to be good QB's those seasons. Maybe not bad, but certainly not good. Tyrod Taylor has been top 10 two season in a row using QBR and does not even look like Bills want him.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HoyeBr00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FitzRy00.htm
You might be looking at the ESPN QBR, which is different. The QBR you see referenced on broadcasts is simply called "rate" by PFR. Fitzpatrick was QB8 in 2014 and Hoyer was QB18 in 2015 (ahead of Bortles and his 35 TDs, showing it isn't a fantasy based stat). I don't mean to get into it too deeply here... the takeaway should simply be that they weren't bad. Thus, the narrative that Hopkins had 2 good seasons with bad QBs is both lazy and wrong. If we get into garbage time stats, it's pretty easy to see why 2015 will go down as Hopkins' career year, but that's beyond the scope of this topic.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Last post on this, not because I mind having the conversation with you but because I imagine it's boring to others as well as not overly pertinent to a trade thread.
Just wanted to say yes I was looking at at ESPN QBR. The mere fact so many QB ratings are all over the place is one of many reasons I don't put stock in them or pay them any attention. I would consider Hoyer and Fitz to be below average QB's those seasons, that may not be bad, but it's not good either.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
If Shepard takes a step in his 2nd year (after a nice rookie season), Rudolph repeats 90% of 2016, and Freeman takes a step back without his OC (such as 4 ypc & half the TDs), this is one of those trades that could look pretty damn good in 8 months after getting ripped apart in the offseason. Especially if the other team strikes out on those 3 picks (odds of finding a good fantasy player with just one of those three picks is probably like 35%).
Hankmoody
Footballguy
If if and if, yes. Any trade can look good after a year. But today, now, this is horrid.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
That, and what good is QBR if a QB throws 20 passes? I would rather have a terrible QB throwing 50 passes than a great QB throwing 20.
Lot of factors to look into when assessing this stuff
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Hoyer only played 11 games in 2015 but his full season stats project out to 3900 yards, 28 TDs, 10 INTs with a 7.1ypa and a QB rating in the 90's.
It's not great, but that's pretty solid QB play. Fairly on par with what guys like Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, and Matt Stafford did this year. I don't think anyone was patting AJ Green, Doug Baldwin, or Larry Fitzgerald for performing this year with terrible quarterback play.
It's not great, but that's pretty solid QB play. Fairly on par with what guys like Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, and Matt Stafford did this year. I don't think anyone was patting AJ Green, Doug Baldwin, or Larry Fitzgerald for performing this year with terrible quarterback play.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'd definitely take the Freeman side but I agree with what you're saying.
Rudolph's value is tied to playing with Captain Checkdown at QB but if Bradford sticks around a while than Rudolph should be a very valuable player given this was a 1.5 PPR for TEs league. Cruz is out in New York and Shepard could pretty easily end up a solid long-term WR2.
Freeman could also very conceivably take a pretty big step back with Shanahan gone.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Honestly in his last three stints (Cleveland, Houston and Chicago) Hoyer was looking fairly decent in the starting role, but just could not stay healthy. He's obviously not an ideal option as a long term NFL starter but he's a decent stop gap option.
One More Rep
Footballguy
Hoyer got hurt in the latter half of his season with the Texans. At the beginning of 2015 he got benched in Houston for Ryan Mallet, only got the job back because Mallet imploded and there was no one else on the roster. However, as mentioned previously in the thread, there's a difference in a bad QB for fantasy and a bad QB. Hoyer could at least complete passes and move an offense down the field, something Osweiler is incapable of. Hopkins no doubt benefitted from that in 2015 as opposed to 2016.
Hoyer could sling the ball passably well but would kill you with terrible mistakes at the worst times, he had a total meltdown in the playoff's turning the ball over 5 times.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Why give a future first for Martin when you don't even know what team he will be on? With trades like this I'd bet on top half of the draft as well.
Sure, but even if all that happens to make the trade end up "even" what compensation are you getting on top of that in return for taking on someone else's risk?
If the only way I "win" a trade is for everything to break right, I don't think I have actually won.
Yes, it's horrid IF the status quo continues which would require Freeman to not miss a beat under a new OC and for Shepard to make no progress. There are ifs on both sides. Betting on the status quo has proven to be a shaky bet historically.
Yeah, I meant to bring up the 1.5 TE premium that seems to be getting ignored. And with TB appearing to be out another year, Captain Checkdown will almost certainly be chucking the rock to Rudolph again.
Um... unless you are correct.
Those things I listed are not stretches. I think Shepard's progression and Rudolph's continuation are highly probable. The thing that will make or break this trade is how Freeman does without Shanahan, so really it was more about personal preference on Freeman. He had two years at <= 4.0 ypc and one year at 4.8 ypc. If you owned him and expect his stats to crash in year 4 and wanted to cash out, maybe you take the best deal you can find. An up and coming WR and 27 yo TE coming off an 83 rec season in a 1.5 TEPPR league might've been the best he could find. We also don't know how bad he was hurting at TE or how stacked he was at RB, so I'm not going to call this a "horrid" trade.
pizzatyme
Footballguy
Same FFPC League, 3 separate trades have gone down in the last 12 hours. These are 12-team, keep 16 at cut down, PPR with TE 1.5 premium.
1) Michael Thomas/5.08/2018 5th for 2.02/3.02/2018 2nd/2018 3rd
2) Julio/Julius Thomas for Tyreek Hill/2.02/2.03/2.06/2.12
3) Julio/Hogan/Ryan Mathews for Landry/Howard/Garcon/3.08
1) Michael Thomas/5.08/2018 5th for 2.02/3.02/2018 2nd/2018 3rd
2) Julio/Julius Thomas for Tyreek Hill/2.02/2.03/2.06/2.12
3) Julio/Hogan/Ryan Mathews for Landry/Howard/Garcon/3.08
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
First two are obviously lopsided, with the left side being the winners.
Third one is closer to even.
One More Rep
Footballguy
1.) I'll take Michael Thomas
2.) I'll take Julio/Thomas
3.) I'll take side with Julio
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Perhaps, but betting on all variables in a trade going your way is a sure bet to lose a trade. This is a trade that's only good if everything that can go right for team A goes right and everything that could go wrong for team B goes wrong. Those are terrible odds. And then to include 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks just to give team B three more chances to realize value? Horrid.
edit: That 1.10 could be Howard or Njoku. I take either of those guys in a TE Premium league over Rudolph in a flash, and there are two more TE's I would take over him too in case I decide to "reach". So now this is Shepard for Freeman, a 2nd (another TE like Hikutini? ) and a 3rd? Good lord it gets worse each time I think about it.
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Andrew74
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Why are there so many bad owners in these FFPC leagues?
pizzatyme
Footballguy
pizzatyme
Footballguy
No, not really. Guy is super high on Hill (I like him but not for Julio) and isn't a contender, so he moved Julio without shopping him to the league first.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
They need MORE to go right (as evidenced by most people, even the people arguing it's not that bad, favoring the Freeman side), but far from everything.
Realistically the biggest unlikelihood of the things being mentioned is probably of the picks netting a good player. I went back and looked at what those picks netted in my league's last 3 drafts and not one of them had a good player come out of those specific picks. Obviously some good ones came out around there that could have just as easily been those picks, but the point remains that we're talking relatively low percentage plays there.
Like I said, I'll take the Freeman side myself but it's not like a bunch of long-shots need to happen to make it end up being a win for the other side.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Terrible. In my leagues these are pretty much the only trade offers anyone ever sends me. I give Evans/2018 1st, I get Seth Roberts/2nd/3rd. No joke. Not even just trying to inquire or start dialog.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I'm sure this whole forum has horror stories like this one, but I enjoy this hobby too much to stay in a league like that unless I was stacked and winning easy money from strangers. But even then, I value the competition, chatter, and fun of my leagues more than the winnings. I'd guess we all do, or we'd have picked a different hobby. If I were you I'd bounce and find a better league. I got in one last year that has had over 150 trades since I joined, and nothing bad like what you posted. It's a blast. Now obviously that's on the unrealistically active part of the scale (with some trading just to trade thrown in), but it's made me start leaving my less active leagues and made me gung-ho about the hobby again.
At risk of basically repeating what FreeBagel said, not everything. There are only 4 variables. Rudolph, Shepard, Freeman, and picks. Like he said, you are overstating the picks (but that's common this time of year). I stand by my statement that the three picks have about a 35% chance of netting a worthwhile player (but they'll also cost you 3 roster spots to start the season). It's a TE premium league and Rudolph was once a relatively hot TE commodity, but people are acting like he's chopped liver here. He's only 27 and coming off an 83 catch season, going back to work with the same QB this year. Shepard was the 5th WR selected in the draft and had a nice rookie year. Even if he doesn't improve, he's not a throwaway. So you really should only view this as a horrid trade if you think Freeman will continue on like he did in 2016. Considering Matt Ryan just set an NFL record for YPA, nearly 2 yard above his career average, and his OC just left, I feel like betting on Freeman to continue is a worse bet than a regression. That offense is going to suffer regardless of if you believe in the super bowl hangover.
I can't grasp trades 1 or 2. I re-read them a few times to see if I was a missing key pick. I'm not sure which one is worse to be honest but two of worst trades I've seen go down. Hope it's not same owner making trades or benefiting.
Last one is more in the realm of reality but still prefer Julio by a good margin.
I've been in leagues that have gone a few years with no changes, I think the most in any league in a year was 3. It can vary by league but really not a ton of turnover and to be honest it's usually the same teams. Meaning someone takes over an orphan team and bails on it after 1-2 years.
The FFPC does a fantastic job of filling up leagues and they have never had any league implode. Really not trying to stump for them or anything, but I strongly feel there is no safer place to invest your money in a dynasty team than the FFPC and safer with respect to not just getting paid but the league continuing.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
You are sorta making it sound like there is no such thing as a bad trade.FF Ninja said:
It was a bad trade. A VERY bad trade.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Right. Any trade is judged on the merit of its value at the time it was made. You could have dealt Calvin two years ago for the 2nd round pick that would later turn into Jordan Howard, and it would look good now, but it still would have been awful at the time. Even if everything goes your way and you win the trade later, you're still throwing away value in the present when you make a deal like the one being discussed--Freeman is worth more in any format, period. Even if the deal looks better later it's still bad now.
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Nah, I just think (1) Freeman is being overrated, (2) the likelihood of hitting on those picks is being overstated, (3) Shepard is being undervalued, and (4) the TE premium and Rudolph are being overlooked.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It said same league, and 2.02 was involved in first two and Julio in 2nd two, so it looks like all were done by the same owner. The owner that gave Thomas away proceeded to steal Julio so actually was net ahead for a while, but then gave it back again. All in all he ended up about the same.while significantly shifting equity from one other team to another. If I got it right, the net for him is:menobrown said:
Gave
Michael Thomas
Hogan
Mathews
Tyreek
2.03
2.06
2.12
5.08
2018 5th
Got
Landry
Howard
Julius Thomas
Garcon
3.02
3.08
2018 2nd
2018 3rd
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
No one has stated any likelihood of those picks hitting, so they can't be overstated. To be specific I called them "chances to realize value". If anything is being overstated it's Rudolph's value. He had a massive outlier year yet still only finished TE4 in this format. He improved his career high catches by 65% and his career high yards by 59%. That's like seeing Lance Kendricks get to TE4.
Look if those are the odds you wanna hook your wagon to be my guest. I'd be licking my chops at someone giving them to me.
Personally, if I had Freeman, I'd have shopped him around for a better deal. I'm not saying it's a great trade, but it's not as bad as it looks. As for Rudolph, he was a former 2nd round pick who has been stuck blocking most of his career. He got a chance at age 26 to run some routes and he crushed it. He'll be back with the same QB next year. It would be foolish to expect him to revert back to 50 receptions in 2017.
